The Contest called Smackdown between GR Simsters, Del penn and Minnesota means a lot to sim residents, you’d never see fields like this for other ungraded Stakes events, the 7f Race for 3yo fillies presents a star of racing 9/2 favourite miscalculation, only beaten once and a multiple Grade 1 winner, she wants to write history in another part of the sim.

But let’s take a look at the 15 runner field:

#1 CK GHOST PROSPECT(KY) 9/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137603

14 Races – 6 Wins – 731,660$

The Ghostzapper filly has a very nice race history, but usually failed, when it counted the most, after a 6th place in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly, her next tries at 8.5f prooved the distance was to far for her. She was cut down in distance, and found nice performances at 7f and 7.5f, winning an ungraded stakes race in March at Louissiana, and finishing 2^nd to Miscalculation last time out in a Grade 1, at Kenntucky. She is well rested, and looks a very solid pick to finish in the money.

#2 BASEBALL FEVER(KY) 10/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=110349

18 Races – 8 Wins – 322,076$

Running mainly in Ungraded Stakes event, this well run filly brings a lot of in the money finishes to her resume. Finishing 2^nd in both her races over 7f as a 3yo, she is a decent sprinter, that should be able to stay the 7f, she can run well into the 100 speed numbers, which should make her a contender. Looks a little ouclassed by the favourites, but can get close.

#3 CRIME STORY(KY) 24/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=152932

7 Races – 3 Wins – 70,385$

A flop on the turf brought out a better turf horse, something you really don’t see very often, but it looks like it happened here. A usefull ALW horse turned into a back-to-back winner, but still “only” in ALW company, and I’d say thats were the horse belongs, like the odds tell you. She needs to produce a career best and really explode, to make the money, which i think is unlikely, so no shot here.

#4 SEVENSPANISHANGELS(KY) 25/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138066

12 Races – 5 Wins – 312,755$

The same than #3 mainly, a good ALW horse winning her last race, but she just isn’t compatible to run with Grade 1 Winners, this field is way to good, don’t take away anything from the horse, which may turn out into a nice ALW horse, but I don’t see her close to the money here. Will need even more than 7 Angels to win here.

#5 APPEAL THIS(KY) 9/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135754

11 Races – 5 Wins – 714,590$

A Group 1 winner as a 2yo, she proofed she can still run with the best, when finishing 2^nd in the Grade 1 Hello Mama Special 2 Months back, won a easy ALW race in June as a prep up for this race, lightly raced with long breaks in between she is taken carefully and always tries to come up with classy results. It’s tough for a 2yo Grade 1 winner to stay competitive and thats exactly what happened to her in the early parts of her 3yo career. Being on her way back she could fight for a Top 3 finish, but I don’t see her winning.

#6 BARB'S ALLIE OOP(KY) 16/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=141628

11 Races – 6 Wins – 181,245$

3 Stakes wins in a row for this nice Afleet Alex filly make her look much better than that 16/1 odds, however, she may struggle with 7 furlongs to go, looking more like a pure sprinter. Plus she seems way slower than the favourites like Miscalculation. Has yet to hit 100, and couldn’t handle the 7f as a 2yo. May have matured, but needs a big improvement to score here.

#7 WOLF DREAMS(KY) 19/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138564

12 Races – 4 Wins – 102,004$

Another 3 time in a row winner, but the question remains, if she can translate it to this class, her ALW wins all have come against average horses at best. But hittin the 100 in her last race shows she is on her way and 7f seem her best distance, nevertheless the odds tell this Kingmambo x A.P. Indy filly has not a lot of support, and I can fully support this, may land well out of the money.

#8 PULPRATS(KY) 8/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=140557

15 Races – 3 Wins – 132,415$

If lengthing a runner by half a furlong ever has turned an average horse into a superstar, she may be it. Her last time out she won a Stakes race over 7f in a classy 107, before she hadn’t hit 100 ever. It has to be seen, if this was a fluke, or stretching her from 6f and 6.5f races to 7f was the magic thing. Needs to reproduce the last race to be a contender, but if she can, she can run away with the win. I guess it’s either flop or Top 3, let’s see if she’s for real.

#9 NECRONOMICON(KY) 10/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=134620

12 Races – 5 Wins – 403,250$

After winning a few Ungraded Stakes Races, she placed in the Group 2 Boca Stakes in her last race as a 2yo, finishing 3^rd and everyone believed she needed at least 1 mile to run at her best, but her 3yo career seems to make that a misjudgement, after 3 failures and another Stakes win, she was dropped back to 7f last time out in a Group 3, and showed the best race of her life. Being beaten only by Lursa, who she will face again today,  she produced a whooping 105 speed. May even be better as a pure sprinter this front runner needs a clear and uncontested lead, which may proof difficult I give her a top 5 finish, but more will be difficult.

#10 JUSTIFY(KY) 15/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=28557

13 Races – 4 Wins – 615,240$

A second place in the Group 2 Sunny Florida was a lot of hope for this filly, her connections had all hope for her 3yo career, but than she had to face even better horses and flopped in the California Oaks, finishing 7^th.

Even worse was her race in the Cosine Cup, won by todays favourite Miscalculation. In that position she finished 4^th last time out in a Stakes race over 7.5f. She just looks a lot overclassed, and couldn’t reproduce her good outings, may need longer runs or lower class, no chance here.

#11 SUICIDEPLAYDATE(ENG) 12/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137134

15 Races – 6 Wins – 264,340$

Often going back in disctance can help producing faster numbers if the horse fits, she may be a part of it today. Last time out, she ran a flat race finishing 13^th in a Grade 2 over 9f. Her best races however came on todays distance at 7f, running a nice 105 in a Group 2 and winning an ALW 4 Races back, her last win to date.

The class in this race may proof to good, but at least her chances look good with distance and going.

#12 UNEXPECTING(KY) 12/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133948

14 Races – 4 Wins – 314,240$

Another nice ALW horse tackling the big Ladys of the dirt, I don’t see her finishing anywhere near the money, winning an ALW over this distance 2 back, and finishing 2^nd over 7.5f in a stakes race last time out, look ok, but in this field of prooven winners simply not enough.

#13 INSPECTOR'S GOLD(NY) 40/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145799

9 Races – 4 Wins – 31,254$

If you read odds of 40/1 you can expect something went wrong, well likely here, too. A nice 6f ALW horse, that has his share of wins at that distance and in lower class, is the huge outsider, and 40/1 seems nice, so not a lot to talk about, let’s look at the favourites.

#14 MISCALCULATION(KY) 9/2

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148868

8 Races – 7 Wins – 1,289,120$

The progression of the horse is what makes it that kind of a success story, everytime she went out on the track, she produced a new personal best speed Number, hittin 109 in her last race, and still beaten for the first time, 7f may be a tip too short, but nevertheless she should handle this field well, the real bet is, can she run a 110, or well the half furlong less cost her a new personal best. She really looks like she can handle the mile, and I’m looking forward how she will compare to older horses over that distance, and of she can proove she’s the best 3yo taking revenge on Vheissu later in the season. Today she should win in this Smackdown Race, but it may be closer than it looked so far because of #15.

#15 LURSA(KY) 5/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=128765

9 Races – 4 Wins – 268,850$

The 2^nd favourite clearly races at her favourite distance, she looked like a great turf horse early in her career producing good looking times and finishing placed in stakes company, but really exploded, when hitting the dirt, she won 2 Group 3s in her last races out, and those speeds can well compare to Miscalculation. I think she might be half a length short, but the distance is in her advantage, expect this to be closer than everybody is thinking.

I go with Miscalculation over Lursa and about 5 horses battling it out for 3^rd, expect it to be a close race, and if 15 fillies tackle the dirt course some surprise may happen, but I don’t expect a huge shocker here.