Television Stakes
Grade III
Five furlongs
Fast Dirt
$150,000
All horses, 2 years old

PP1 - Papa Bear CC – Balata – B Renfroe – 5/2fav

Unbridled’s Song x LA Secret (Seattle Slew x Secretariat) = Half brother to 3yo Touch (by Touch Gold) who was G1 placed at 2 and is a runner in this week’s Bluegrass Oaks: Well bred G-ranked dam, with no previous active owners, had a poor record at the track (winning 2 from 13): Top end sire, can get runners at all distances, has a 27.3 win% with his 2yos so far this year.

Form – 1                High SP – 80

Short odds favourite and Ohio MSW winner on his debut back at the beginning of March with one of the biggest speed figures of the early starting juveniles. Unsurprisingly the bookmakers have him at the top of the pack but his pedigree, certainly on the dam’s side, suggests he may find this 5f too sharp and at such restrictive odds it may pay to look for better value elsewhere.

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PP2 - Octoman – Stlsnapper – N Lawton – 8/1

Zanjero x Jill Nightmare (Gone West x Roberto) = Seventh foal from an unraced dam that has yet to produce anything special: First season sire has made a good start at stud with 4 winners from 17 runners so far in 2009.

Form – 1              High SP – 74

Comfortable winner of a 6f owner restricted MSW (freshmen sires only) five weeks ago, posting a quick time in the process. It may have been an easy field he defeated that day (the third has been well beaten since) but he done it in stylish fashion and a repeat of that performance will see him go close here.

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PP3 - Jazzig – Poggendorf – O A Haak – 9/1

Durandal x Native Jazz (Danzig x Fairy King) = Out of an ordinary G-ranked dam: Japanese freshman sire has had just 1 winner from 16 runners (6.3%) with his first crop of juveniles so far this term.

Form – 14             High SP – 71

Looked potentially smart when powering away from the field to score on his debut over 5f in one of the first 2yo Allowances of the year. He was switched to turf next time for the 7f Manatee Stakes where he led through the early stages before keeping on well to finish a creditable fourth. His owner is probably still none the wiser about which is this colt’s preferred surface after performing equally well on both, but he is definitely a talented individual and is in with a chance here.

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PP4 - Elite Dylan – Elite Racing – P Munoz – 12/1

Johannesburg x All In On A Bluff (Pine Bluff x Seattle Slew) = G-ranked he-mare, winner only once in 14 attempts, is a son of the G2/G3 placed router Wil The Slew: Multi purpose sire, can get decent runners equally as well in any code, has a 19.2 win% with this year’s crop.

Form – 11                 High SP – 71

Unbeaten after winning both of his starts at British Columbia although he failed to improve on his debut SP when just scraping home in a track restricted Allowance, against a weak field of maidens, 4 weeks back. He faces a real tough task to make it three from three against this field while his pedigree points towards him improving later on in the year when he is stretched out a little further

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PP5 - Wickedness – Qwikvett – J White – 7/1

Rock Hard Ten x A.P Indy x Storm Cat = Scratch bred with a DS/DDS combo that has been successful numerous times in the past: Fourth season sire, more noted for producing routers, has made a slow start with this year’s offspring and has had only 2 winners from 27 juveniles.

Form – 13                   High SP – 71

Impressive when winning a NWRC owner restricted Stakes over 6f on her debut towards the end of February, beating a 15-strong field of nicely bred fillies. She then went to Kentucky strongly fancied for a 5.5f Allowance 6 weeks later but could only finish a one-paced third and saw her speed figure regress by 10 points from her first start. If it was the drop in distance that was the reason for that disappointing effort last time then this trip of 5f could pose even more of a problem.

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PP6 - Sculptured Art – Starpukie – P Haynes – 10/1

Excellent Art x Alysheba x Mill Reef = Scratchbred with an unusual DS/DDS mix featuring both dirt and turf influences: Second season sire, quickly establishing himself as a decent producer of precocious 2yos, has an impressive 25% strike rate from his 20 juveniles so far in 2009.

Form – 12                High SP – 76

Good winner of a 6f New York MSW that has seen the second, third and fifth go on to win their next race. Trekking to California and dropping down in distance for his next start in a hotly contested 5f Allowance, he sat towards the back of the field before finishing well and coming home in second place (1l behind Any Given Cat). The winner was given an easy lead in that last race and so, with a ton of speed in here, it would be no surprise to see those finishing positions reversed.

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PP7 - Gold Medallion – Eaglesfan – A Rolling – 10/1

Grand Reward – Phat Prospector (Green Desert x Mr. Prospector) = From a good family and related to numerous winners including multiple Stakes winners Duke Of Normandy (3yo by Bluegrass Cat), Defiant Direwolf (Stormy Atlantic) and No Money No Talk (Generous) who was also G3 placed as a 2yo: Lightly raced F-ranked dam never had time to fulfil her true potential: Bargain priced sire, sprint influence, has had one winner from 6 runners (16.7%) from this year’s offspring.

Form– 1               High SP – 70

Never far off the pace when winning at the first time of asking in a 19-runner, owner restricted Stakes over the minimum distance in February. That race possibly lacked a little strength in depth but he has been given plenty of time to recover, is out of a dam that has already had proven success with younger horses and so he has to be one of the leading contenders.

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PP8 - Emerald Pro – Black Label – P Cadigan – 8/1

Cherokee Run x World Of Trouble (Giant’s Causeway x Fappiano) = Third foal and full sibling to a good Allowance winning 3yo Just Look Up: B-ranked dam, high-class turf sprinter who was thrice G1 placed and a triple G3 winner with $1.3 million earnings: Under performing, speed orientated sire has a 18.2 win% from 11 runners so far this season.

Form – 1              High SP – 69

Overcame an off-track to win on his racecourse debut over 5 panels at New Jersey in the middle of March, pulling away from the field inside the final furlong. It’s impossible to judge how much he’ll improve now he tackles a sound surface but if he has inherited just a little of his mother’s ability he could turn out to be something special this year.

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PP9 - First One Home – Universal R.C – B F Abman – 24/1

First Defence x Only Way Back (Came Home x Buckfinder) = First offspring of an unremarkable G-ranked race mare: Freshman sire, already making an impact at stud with 6 winners from 29 runners (20.7%) from his first crop of juveniles.

Form – 14              High SP – 66

Having made a winning debut over 4.5f in Idaho, this colt went to California only 4 weeks later for the 5f Allowance contested by Sculptured Art (second) and Any Given Cat (winner) where he could only finish 5l fifth of eight. His speed figures are little below some of the leading protagonists in here but his deep closing style of running means he should be suited by the quick early pace and is not completely without a chance.

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PP10 - Lang Ago – Mano – W McClendon – 29/1

Lanfuhr x Banning For City (Carson City x Bishop’s Choice) = Fifth foal of a fairly consistent F-ranked racemare: Sire can get quick early season 2yos but has had an unusually bad start to the year with only 1 winner from 17 juveniles (5.9%).

Form – 1                   High SP - 61

Upset a pair of regally bred newcomers when the Surprise winner of a 5-runner, 5f Allowance at Turkey in March. He would have to improve an awful lot from that debut if he is to figure here but he has a true sprinters lineage and he can’t be completely ruled out.

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PP11 – Ajustcause – Ldyssecret – F Gossett – 16/1

Foreplay x Cause Of You (Giant’s Causeway x Kalanisi) = First offspring from a G-ranked dam who was poor on the racecourse: Cheap third season sire with a strong turf sprint influence has had 2 winners from 11 2yos (18.2%) so far this year.

Form -10                      High SP – 69

Interesting runner that showed a lot of promise when winning a Stakes race on turf on his debut but then bombed in a much tougher event 5 weeks later. This will be his first run on dirt but there is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he’ll improve for the switch of surface and he looks set to struggle in a field of this stature.

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PP12 – Any Given Cat – Universal R.C – D Givins – 10/1

Any Given Saturday x Tale Of The Cat x Capote = Scratchbred with a DS/DDS combo that produced a good early season 2yo last year in No Cause For Alarm: Second season sire, opened his account at stud with 2 Grade winners last year and has quickly got into the groove in 2009 with 6 winners from 28 starters (21.4%).

Form – 11                      High SP – 79

Unbeaten after winning two, 5f Allowance races in California where he wired the field on both occasions. He had the race run to suit and was able to dictate the pace last time out (Sculptured Art and First One Home behind) but he is unlikely to get such an easy time leading against this quick field, especially from a wide stall. However he clearly has a touch of class, he has posted one of the quickest SPs of the field and is surely an overlay at 10/1

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PP13 – Hoosier Council – Hoosier – H McCoy – 43/1

Student Council x Aptitude x L’Enjoleur = Scratchbred, using an untried DS/DDS combination: Cheap freshman sire has had just 1 winner from a crop of 19 juveniles this year.

Form – 1                     High SP – 50

Winner of a 4-runner, owner restricted MSW sponsored by the KY Horsemen 4 weeks back. He has the lowest winning SP of this field by quite some margin and it is no surprise to see him at such long odds.

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PP14 – Sly Bailey – Bailey Racing – J Caves – 31/1

Mujtahid x Shamgo x Reflected Glory = Cheap scratchbred with a dirt sprinting influence on the dam’s side: Sire is capable of producing speedy types but has had just 1 winner from 7 runners (14.3%) so far this term.

Form – 12                High SP – 70

Scored at long odds on his debut in a big field, owner restricted MSW over the minimum trip in Australia, leading from start to finish. He tried to make all the running once again in a 5f Allowance 4 weeks later (facing only one previous winner) but he was headed soon after halfway and never really troubled the eventual winner. This chestnut colt is one of the cheapest bred horses in the line-up but he is by no means the least talented although he will find this race much harder than the last two he has competed in.

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Summary

These early season 2yo races are notoriously difficult to predict and this race is no exception.

Papa Bear CC has the potential to go to the very top this year and if this race was over 6f I would say those 5/2 odds were warranted. However he faces a lot of speedy types here and I have a feeling he won’t get into top gear until it’s too late over this sharp 5f. He is definitely one to follow later on in the season over more ground.

Impressive debut winners having only their second races, Octoman, Gold Medallion and Emerald Pro could all improve enough to be involved in the finish although none are certain to do so. I prefer the last-named most of these three.

The two that I like most finished first and second in the same Californian Allowance last time out. The unbeaten Any Given Cat is blessed with a ton of speed and will be in the firing line from the off, but with so many frontrunners in the line-up he is likely to have a difficult passage throughout. The tentative selection is Sculptured Art who has a length to find on the aforementioned horse on their last meeting but his style of racing should be much more suited to this type of race.

1 – Sculptured Art

2 – Any Given Cat

3 – Papa Bear CC

4 – Emerald Pro