United Arab Emirates -- Race 4218.5114 The Khartoum Challenge II
I saw Toni Terry on the beach by iant
on
Thursday, February 04, 2010 at
7:39:54 AM
The Khartoum Challenge II
race 4218.5114 The Khartoum Challenge II-G3, 4yo+ M 9F Dirt
This is the first leg of what is the Maktoum Challenge which is usually the weakest race of the series. The real race was run last week and won by the Brazilian bred horse Gloria De Campeao. The race has not got a long history and no winners have really set the breeding world alight which is of no real surprise.
The new racecourse debuted last week the new surface being a big hit. It seems to ride well with no obvious bias for speed or come behind horses. The other big factor is that it does not favour a certain strip of ground so a big positive has to be seen in that. This should bode well for the future. The main problem could be the draw in 10f races. It is funny that as now they have a surface that will make the Dubai World Cup an interesting competitive race they throw in a spanner. You would not want to back a horse drawn in double figures.
The Dubai World cup meeting has had a record number of entries which suggest world wide the switch of surfaces is seen as a massive plus. This has to be the way forward for racing on an international basis. This years field for the big race will be the best ever in terms of average ability of the runners involved in the race.
The big issue the runners have today is the off track this could cause some surprises in the result due to certain horses not dealing with conditions. Strange thing is this is a track where rain would not cause any noticeable difference to how the surface acts.
HARLAW (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x POINT GIVEN x NUREYEV
I doubt any horse has ever had his fee cut like Ghostzapper from $150k to $30k in one year. It was justified and you wonder how long he has left at stud in Kentucky. I doubt many people sending him mares even at $30k will make money selling them in two years time. This horse’s dam sire Point Given was another major dud a stud. This kind of reflects the problems of second guessing sires ability before we have seen what there offspring at least look like Curlin looks very much like falling into the same bracket already. What for Sea The Stars to follow? This horse is a very good allowance stakes runner but does seem to struggle on graded races. The major positives are that he has won his only race on the off track is lightly raced and could well improve from three to four. If all those factors fall in his favour in what is not a stellar field he could well make the frame.
THE DEVILS DOSAGE (KY) FORESTRY x SEEKING THE GOLD x DEVIL'S BAG
It is fair to say Seeking The Gold had an excellent year as a dam sire in real life in 2009. I expect people with mares by him will be hoping for more of the same in the coming years. He in fact was the dam sire of four grade 1 winners in the calendar year. This horse looks well out of his depth in this race. He has been running in the URC series of races without any success. This is a big step up in class over those races. It is hard to see him being a factor here.
HECAMETOMEINADREAM (JPN) DEEP IMPACT (JPN) x LYPHARD x SECRETARIAT
The history to Lyphard is very interesting. He was purchased by the Head family at the Keeneland sales. It was not the select sale either. They purchased two other horses in the USA that year one being Riverman. That is a good week’s work buying two top class racehorse that went on to be top class stallions. They made even more money by standing them in France before selling the proven product to the USA. The Timeform comments on Lyphard were interesting by the same sire as Nijinsky! It shows how much Northern Dancer’s star rose over his time at stud. This is a very good sim horse. He is a multiple graded winner likes this trip as well. The big negative is the off track he has not won in two starts and seems to not put his best foot forward on it. This would put me off backing him in this race even though he has excellent ability.
GRAVEMENTE (IRE) SADLER'S WELLS x A.P. INDY x GONE WEST
Sadler’s Wells has been the best sire of recent years by a long way he is now the best dam sire. Fifty four horses have won graded stakes and as a dam sire he has seventy two winners over the last ten years. In the sire bracket every one has been on turf. It is fair to say he is useless as a dirt sire and should be so in the sim as well. This has been a very good horse in the sim up until his last few starts. His form has just hit the floor hard. With no obvious reason from a reader’s point of view you would have to suspect wear and tear has raised its ugly head. Until the horse can show a marked improvement in form from a betting perspective he has to be passed over.
TAHARKA (KY) MEDAGLIA D'ORO x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x PRIVATE ACCOUNT
This horse’s sire has made a good start at stud. He has been snapped up by Darley though the sound bites they have made do not necessarily install confidence that this will be a great benefit to him. They appear to want to send a different type of mare which may or may not work. At present though he looks a decent long term prospect though there are far better sires than him out there. This horse’s form has been a bit in and out of late. It looks like age is catching up with him. The big positive is he likes the off track this can be a big leveler and for that alone this horse deserves a certain level of respect in this filed. He can run a place if all the factors fall into place.
TRAVEL CARD (KY) FUSAICHI PEGASUS x STORM CAT x STOP THE MUSIC
This horse’s sire is another that has been very poor at stud. He is another sire who failed as a three year old to prove himself against open company. There is a factor which is proven to reflect on the sire’s potential at stud and needs to be factored into the sim. This should be worth at least 10% of a sire’s actual ability when grading them to start with. This horse looks like he has a great chance in this race. He loves an off track and his record in races over one mile is excellent. Added to that he is in good form seems up an upward curve and can run good speed figures. Unless injured appears to be hard to ignore in this field.
HAGUE POINT (KY) KINGMAMBO x DEPUTY MINISTER (CAN) x PRIVATE ACCOUNT
Kingmambo is as good as retired as a stallion he only got three mares in foal last year. Any fans of his would be well advised to breed to him this year as it may well be your last chance. He had an excellent year as a dam sire in 2009 the only horse that had three horses win grade 1 races in Europe and the USA. This is a decent sim horse as well. He always runs a decent speed figure but usually ends up running a place rather than winning. His off track form is though limited suggests he should act and he could well run a place again in this race.
THE FROZEN SHORE (KY) A.P. INDY x FORESTRY x GONE WEST
A.P. Indy is an excellent dirt sire and it is no surprise he has a runner in this race. This horse has been getting better with age. He is in his first start against all ages so this is a new test for him. He has won at graded level in a 3yo only race. The other positive factors are his good record on off track which is important and a progressive profile something that not all the horses in this race have. He must have a decent chance of making the frame.
HURRICAN CARSON (FR) HURRICANE CAT x CARSON CITY x UNBRIDLED
This horse is a strange entry in this race. He has been doing well in sprint races on dirt. He has improved with racing and age as well. The problem here is the trip he ran over 8f a while back and the trip seemed too far in a much lower grade of race than this. It is therefore at this trip very hard to see him being anything but beaten a long way in this race. He may well be worth a shot in a graded dirt sprint though.
As for my selections they are as follows:-
1 Travel Card appears to hold an excellent chance 2 The Frozen Shore improver who should handle the conditions 3 Harlaw another that appears to be on the upgrade
