Third Year Sires Analysis

 Posted by at 8:58 pm  General
Jul 142017
 

Today we are going to take a look at the Third Year sires in the SIM. This will be the last year we can track these stallions in their own category before they are lumped into the general sire pool. We now have 3 crops of horses to look at so we can determine some trends on how these guys are doing. This wasn’t a stellar crop of stallions so there has been a chance for some lesser known names to rise to the top of this group. For the purposes of this paper we are looking at the 2016 class, so the current 3yos. I only count stallions with 30 or more runners in this initial look at rankings based on Stakes winning %.

1. 36 – Abbeyside 8.3

2. 90 – Charm Spirit 6.7%

3.65- Super Ninety Nine 6.2%

4. 88 – No Nay Never 5.7%

5. 70- Quest For Peace 4.3%

6. 124- Australia 4%

7. 55 – Xtension 3.6%

8. 111- Will Take Charge 3.6%

9. 115- Variety Club 3.5%

10. 93- Ruler of the World 3.2%

11. 96- Fed Biz 3.1%

12. 98- War Command 3.1%

13. 102- Alpha 2.9%

14. 35- Anodin 2.9%

15. 72- Rookie Sensation 2.8%

16. 110-Magician 2.7%

17. 74- Kingman 2.7%

18. 39- Fiddlers Afleet 2.6%

19. 119- Verrazano 2.5%

20. 85- Goldencents 2.4%

What initially stands out is that none of these guys are burning down the SIM. Abbeyside has a very nice % but its uncertain if that number would hold up if we doubled his number of runners. Charm Spirit is almost twice as good as most of these stallions right now.  Well known stallions like Verrazano, Australia, and Will Take Charge are not exactly tearing things up yet. The good news is that no one on this list is expensive so all can be had for bargain prices but you see the results. Breeders have been taking note as only 7 stallions from this class had over 100 breedings. The only 100+ stallion not to make the top 20 was Sea the Moon who has a dismal 1.7% stakes winning rate. Unfortunately the graded winning % is even worse. In fact no stallion from this class has more than 1 graded winner from his 3yo crop and in fact only 9 stallions even have a graded winner. They are:

Xtension, Quest for Peace, Kingman, Strong Mandate, Revolutionary, Fed Biz, Noble Mission, War Command and Magician. 

What then do we make of this group? Are any of these stallions worth our time? These horses are a year away from getting 2yos in real life so none of them will even be close to an upgrade for a year or two so it’s not even worth buying their shares for a speculative nature at the moment. As I mentioned earlier there is value because none of these are really expensive, not even Australia who is the most popular of the group with 124 breedings. The ones which stand out right now are Charm Spirit, Super Ninety Nine and No Nay Never who all have a decent sample size and are giving you a 5%+ SW rate. Charm Spirit was a multiple G1 winner at a mile, is a son of Invincible Spirit out of a Montjeu mare so he has both success on the track and a good pedigree. He has a G1 winner from his initial class (4yo now). Super Ninety Nine is a son of Pulpit (sire of Tapit) out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. He wasn’t very notable on the track being only a G3 winner. He does stand in MD so you get an easier local regional race schedule you can take advantage of if you send him to quality mares. No Nay Never is gaining popularity in the SIM, a son of Scat Daddy who is having real success in Europe on the turf, it is a shame he passed away so young. He was a G1 winner in France, finishing his short 6 race career never running out of the place spot with 4 wins and 2 seconds. While he has two lines of Mr. Prospector in his pedigree, his offspring are free of Northern Dancer blood which explains some of his popularity in the SIM since he can go to all the Danehill and Sadler’s Wells line mares. 

Once we get past these three, we find ourselves taking shots. Australia will continue to get used and with his pedigree and Coolmore connections he likely has the best chance for real life success. Patience may pay off for him but he is clearly not ranked as good as say Frankel or Golden Horn. Variety Club was an extremely successful South African runner who was on the track till 6 so we might see his offspring get better as they get older. He is getting a lot of support and will have plenty of chances to prove himself. Verrazano and Will Take Charge have both been lackluster thus far and have a lot of work to do before they can be considered reliable options. Deeper values might be Goldencents who won two Breeder’s Cup races (and might get secretly boosted when his sire Into Mischief gets an increase) and Cairo Prince who might get carried to some success on the Pioneerof the Nile wave. 

The bottom line is that their is no American Pharoah, Golden Horn or Uncle Mo in this group. No one here is likely to be in the Top 25 of SIM sires anytime soon (or ever). That doesn’t mean you should just write off this class though. History tells us that a few of these stallions are going to be successful and considering the fairly cheap price all of these guys carry you aren’t really going to be burned either. I wouldn’t suggest using these stallions in scratch breedings, the extra risk involved and their tepid juice doesn’t lend itself well to success along those lines. However, if you end up with some well bred mares you want to use on them you might be able to pick up a gem or two. 

 

 

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  4 Responses to “Third Year Sires Analysis”

  1. Goldencents covered 190 Revolutionary 117 and Will Take Charge covered 144 mares in 2016. They should have a decent chance to prove themselves in the real world. I suspect Australia and Kingman will also have a good shot at covering some numbers and quality. Great article.

  2. Cairo Prince you need to see his sales figures top draw, if they translate into horses that race he is top 25 very soon.

    Coolmore have been sending Galileo mares (reduced book due to age) to Australia if he fails they will not be happy.

    Kingman on race record and type was stand out. He has been receiving great mares via Juddmonte many Oasis Dream re routes so he has abetter chance than Golden Horn of being a top sire.

  3. good work..i was considering Charm Spirit but as you say doing it on scratch is a dodgy proposition..