Oct 082017

The 2017 season is just about over and this allows us to take the opportunity to see how the North American freshman sires of 2017 did. Since Freshman sires in real life will have had 4 crops in the SIM, we will also have quite a bit of data to see how they have performed in the virtual world as well. Without further ado, here are the current (thru October 8) top 10 Frosh sires of 2017.

  1. Overanalyze (Dixie Union) 22 winners from 56 starters – $1.08 million
  2. Violence (MdO) 12 winners from 43 runners – $677K
  3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) 9/35 – $613K
  4. Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor) 12/27 – $526K
  5. Poseidon’s Warrior (Speightstown) 3/19 – $498K
  6. Take Charge Indy (AP Indy)  13/41 – $487K
  7. Animal Kingdom (Leroid…)  4/23 – $472K
  8. Declaration of War (War Front) 6/34 – $454K
  9. Treasure Beach (Galileo) 8/27 – $398K
  10. Orb (Malibu Moon) 6/23 – $383K

The big names who do not make the top 10 are Point of Entry (17th, 20K stud fee), Paynter (18th, 20K) Oxbow (32nd, 20K). Interesting both Paynter and Oxbow are Awesome Again sons. I don’t feel this is a strong class an we may struggle to find long term staying power here. From our top 10 we can toss two right now. Take Charge Indy now stands in Korea so he is no longer available to the American Breeder. Poseidon’s Warrior total is almost all taken up by one horse, Firenze Fire. For the others questions remain and I’ll give my brief thoughts here:

Overanalyze – Is he the Dixie Union son to finally hit? There have been a lot of them which have gone to stud and done decent at the local level but have never really broken out. He has run away with the title and he isn’t powered by one horse. He has 22 winners. A lot to like here and worth watching.

Violence – Everyone has been talking about his horses. They look great and are winning lower level stakes. Will be interesting to see how they transition to 3yos. His sire really needs a stallion son.

Shangahi Bobby – Harlan’s Holiday, for having died young, has had a real impact on the breed. I expect Bobby to get tons of support and he very well might pan out. He has the Coolmore backing and will get every chance to succeed after this strong start.

Jimmy Creed – An impressive start but with a 5K stud fee he will have to make do with sub par mares. Haven’t really been impressed with other Distorted Humor sons. Likely just a source of cheap speed.

Animal Kingdom – 4 winners from 23 isn’t all that great but we would expect his best to come as they get older. A rather average pedigree won’t help him. Too expensive at 30K stud fee.

Declaration of War – Even though he is a War Front I would expect his offspring to be better as the distances increase. I take this good initial start as a positive sign as his best will come next year.

Treasure Beach – A Florida based Galileo? I mean what mares is he going to get? Might be some talent here though since he did make the list.

Orb – Barely  makes the top 10 probably the most “named” horse from this crop. Shaky start.

If I were picking 3 which I could have future shares in I would take Overanalyze, Violence and I guess Declaration of War. Now let’s look at how the top 10 is going in the SIM.

  1. Overanalyze 65/65 (credits/BPs) 3 SWs (all from the first crop) 1.8% SW, 0 GW 60/59/33/18 (numbers bred thru 4 crops) 65.3% winners. He looks like he got the standard ratings for all Dixie Union sons in the SIM. His win % is decent but it is going to be hard to get a SW from him. He is cheap though and worth picking up on a speculative nature in the hopes that he gets a slight buff next year following his Freshman Sire Title.
  2. Violence 273/324 10 SW 3.1% 3 GW 0.9% 83/93/97/54 65.1%. Winners almost identical to Overanalyze but as we see he gives you a better shot at getting a black type horse. Then again he has almost double the runners, though he has fallen off in breedings in year 4 which is a common trend among all these stallions. He costs 4 times as much as Overanalyze and you’re paying for the chance at the black type.
  3. Shanghai Bobby 125/149 11 SW 3.1% 1 GW 0.3% 94/106/95/61 70.8%. Represents good value right? He is getting the same amount of SW as Violence at less than half the price. OK, Violence has two more GW but that is often luck based. He has 5% more winners than Overanalyze and Violence. A very solid 125pt sire right now.
  4. Jimmy Creed 110/110 5 SW 2.3% 1 GW 0.5% 74/67/55/24 75%. An excellent 75% winners. He has received some steady support from a lesser known sire. Another decent SIM value for 100.
  5. Poseidon’s Warrior 315/10 0 SW/GW 17/12/12/15 57.1%. The 315 is misleading he likely just had a 10 credit buy following the Champagne win by Firenze. Basically a bargain bred sire, approach with that in mind.
  6. Take Charge Indy 726/407 22 SW 5.3% 6 GW 1.4% 97/123/115/81 73.1%. The one I have used the most of this group as you would expect he has done well in the SIM with a lot of support and a likely good rating from a known son of Indy. Could likely dominate regional racing with his offspring until he gets a nerf.
  7. Animal Kingdom NA/571 30 SW 6.5% 8 GW 1.7% 132/116/126/92 72.8%. Highly used, has to be considered a strong success with a 6.5% SW mark. Worth picking up and likely the best SIM stallion in this group, can get you a top end horse.
  8. Declaration of War 283/279 22 SW 5.5% 5 GW 1.3% 96/105/125/73 73.4%. Another that I have used quite a bit, he is in my opinion the best value in the group. For a mid-high 200 stallion you are getting a 5-6% chance at a stakes horse. Affordable and a proven producer.
  9. Treasure Beach 322/124 4 SW 6.3% 1 GW 1.6% 64/79/46/29 68.8%. An intriguing horse. I think he is overpriced but he does have a 6% SW rate. Is that realistic or over-rated? His number of breedings also varies wildly from year to year. So some people are having some success with him. Might have some decent value might get you some duds. High risk, high reward stallion.
  10. Orb NA/648 17 SW 4.1% 4 GW 1% 102/113/102/79 73.4%. Overpriced for what he does. SIM has him rated about right as he performs in the SIM much like it looks like is headed in real life. I’d stay away as there are much better values on this list.

SIM wise I think we have a lot of choices here. I can make arguments for every stallion on this list except for Orb and Poiseidon’s Warrior and maybe as we go forward Take Charge Indy. The good news is that this crop represents value and price points for every level of SIM breeder.

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  One Response to “2017 (Actual) Freshman Sire Analysis”

  1. Two comments -Dixie Union already has a sire son who has done very well, Union Rags.
    Orb did not break his maiden until the end of his 2yo season. Many industry folks have commented that they expect their Orb 2yos to really develop at 3. I wouldn’t write him off just yet.