Japan – 11/18/17 – G2 Queen Liz Commemorative
A field of eight is set to contend in this evenly matched group of older mares over a firm turf course. The field includes (5) Graded winners, and two of which that are creeping closer to that million dollar immortality. Cheapest odds in the field is 9/2, and the longest shot is 7-1. Get ready Japan, this will be breathtaking!
$375,000 Grade 2 Queen Liz Commemorative (Post Time 2:30pm EST)
3yr Olds and up, Fillies and Mares
10 Furlongs – Turf
#1 SCARY EFFECT (9/2) – by Frankel, scratch bred to Kingmambo. Comes into this contest off four straight races vs graded company, producing a win, a second, and two OTM finishes. Her mid-pack running style will always keep her involved in races, but failed to gain anything on the leaders in last, and finished 6 lengths back. Trainer mntb doesn’t want to see a super fast pace, it could hamper his girl from getting the jump on the late closers. Numbers are good, needs to stay close.
#2 BEYOND WIRE (9/2) – by Exceed And Excel, out of G1winning, millionaire mare I Ben Scammed (Montjeu). Her lines/running style looks to be almost identical to the gal to her inside. Although, her trainer bigsteve54 says “I think she’s got more tactical speed” when referring to her getting the jump on some of her rivals. Got the ½ length victory last out in the G2 Lydia Test. Some will question how ready she is, after just racing three weeks ago. I will too, as it took everything she had to win when last seen, which was also her first score since March.
#3 CHILD OFTHE FOREST (5-1) – by Bernardini, out of ALW winning mare Zarb Hill (Danehill). Been jumping around the class ranks recently. One thing that hasn’t changed though, is her ability to hit the tote board. ITM in five out of her last six races, three being wins that she was increasing the margin of victory at the wire. Didn’t fire last out vs stakes company males in a field of five where she finished third, beaten by 10 ¼ lengths. Broomhead has her back against other mares now, and she has a definite chance for a bounce back effort.
#4 TIFA (6-1) – by Danehill Dancer, scratch bred to Kingmambo. Threw in an absolute clunker last out. Posted her worst SP since August of 2016, and finished last of nine, beaten by more than twenty lengths. Two back, she came home flying to win a 60K ALW in IA by a neck. Trainer siversun6 loves to ship this horse around, as every other race recently has been one across the world. Would appreciate a fast pace. Good performances have typically followed up a bad one, so keep an eye on her.
#5 MYTHIC DIAMOND (6-1) – by Declaration Of War, out of G1winning, millionaire mare Valyrian (Galileo). Hit the board for her first time in a stakes race last out, having lead for most of the race and tiring in the stretch to finish third. Only attempt against graded company came in April of 2016, where she was mid-pack early and faded badly to lose by over fourteen lengths. Trainer Austerlitz hopes to have her sitting right off the pace, and pounce late as she did three back. The gals to her outside have more early speed, so if she tries to go, I expect her to get burned up. Backend of exotics possible with right setup.
#6 FATE WOULD HAVE IT (7-1) – by Curlin, out of stakes winning mare Boapalooza (Encosta De Lago). Receives the longshot title here due to back to back sub 100SP efforts. Was running vs claimers late last year, then rattled off thirteen consecutive runs of 100+SP before last two. She didn’t show her normal speed last out, maybe that was tactical by her trainer corza7, maybe not. She can definitely crank out the early numbers, but she will most likely have to contend with the two to her right to stick her nose in front after the bell. Stamina is a question mark. Prefer others.
#7 SEYDISFJORDUR (5-1) – by Sea The Stars, out of stakes winning mare Hamborgari (Smart Strike). She’s faced stiff competition in each of her last five races, and has only one second place finish to show for it. Showed a lot of pace that day, and may need that same strategy as she didn’t sniff the lead in any of her last three. Most of her success to date have come over 8.5 furlongs or less. This distance seems a bit too long for her liking, but her trainer newmarket8, wants to give her a shot. Has strong SP numbers all year, but I predict another finish like the last is coming. Needs to find Ron Jeremy stamina!
#8 FALL FOLIAGE (5-1) – by Kitten’s Joy, out of G2 winning mare Green Trees (Dansili). Came up HUGE last out! First time against graded company and beating the field of nine in the G1 Liz Taylor. Trainer gowans2 has been giving this girl a nice, steady climb up the class ladder and it has paid off. She can be on, or just off the lead and produce big results. Winner of six of her last seven. She may not be your morning line favorite, but is definitely mine, and she has stamina for days. A win here will cement her status as a top older filly over long distances.
Swami Selections: 8 – 3 – 2