Mar 132018

A field of 8 horses, who combined have raced 140 times, with no wins amongst this group.  They are all entered into  a pricey $60,000 claiming race that is restricted to 4 year olds and up.  They will compete at a distance at 6.5 furlongs on the dirt track.  8 will race, 1 will win.  Who will it be?

1  NITROGLICERINA  14/1-Took a long 6 month layoff between starts in 2016 and 2017 in search of improvement.  Not much came this gals way who represents her sex against the boys.   She’s raced with the guys before and she may have caught their eyes, but wasn’t up to there level.  Hard to see that changing.

2  SNOWBALL FIGHTS 6/1-Long 10 month recess during 2017 put this one in Hot race on his return on the grass, running 58 speed at 10f.  Improved speed to 76 going back to dirt and 8f.  Gives up the MSW for the claiming class and this could be a better fit.

3  COMMENDABLE YOU  6/1-Notched a 78 speed in last when dropping out of long routes for 6f sprint, a much better outcome.  Has finished third in last three starts.  The return to the sprint class may be the right place for this guy as the speed number is much better than the 54-70 range he had at longer distances.  But could be a bit over raced as he makes 4th start for this year.

4  SHOW MARCEL  20/1-Also makes fourth start for the year but the speed just won’t be competitive here.   He has not hit the 70 level in about a year and it’s looking like the winner will be in the high 70 range or better.  He did run a streak of five straight third place finishes in the later part of 2017  but the majority of those were in long routes finishing well off the winner.

5  TRILLADO  9/2-Hit the board with a third for the first time in his career, which has been limited to six starts.   This came after a 3 month rest stint and he now makes his first start after a 4 month rest.  He has charted an 84 speed on the poly track last year.  I think he may be a bit rusty coming back and if he can string a few races together to kick the form into gear, he may get something.  He does drop into claimers for the first time which is a benefit, however, his form may need some sharpening.

6  MUTA MIDA  3/1-An aggravating four straight second place finishes has haunted this entrant who wants to kick through the door.  His last two outings were on the turf and with speeds in the 80-range.  He returns to the dirt where he hit 72 (twice) as a high during 2017 on the surface with one occurring on an offtrack.  He has been racing at mile to 2 mile distances since the tail end of 2017 and settles in for a sprint.  He looks better on the turf, based on his speeds, but the cut in distance may result in the door opening for him.

7  FABRIZEO  3/2-Favorite hit the board three times in seven tries during 2017.  Last four races have been in routes with speeds maintained in a tight range of 79 to 83.  Surrenders the MSW class for the maiden claimers, seeking an edge.  Returns to sprint where he last ran a speed of 78, finishing third.    Looks to be in good shape for this event.

8  KISS THE PLAYER TB  20/1-It’s been since the end of 2016 when this guy last had a top three finish.   His speeds have been below the 70 level  for an even longer duration and the slump unfortunately looks like it will continue.   He’s race primarily sprints during 2017 to the current date, mainly in a range of low to top end claimers with a few MSW appearances sprinkled in.  Nothing seems to have worked and short of trying very long distance races on dirt or turf or exploring a poly race, I’m not sure what the winning formula would be.


Fabrizeo is top pick and looks good by the numbers, but I’m not sold that he is a solid lock.

Muta Mida has been putting better numbers up on turf but slicing back on short distance may be a popper for this one.

Commendable You has better speeds in sprint and made decent late move to get third in last, not out of it and could bring nice price.


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