Jun 152018
 

demogor

A field of Eleven Older Fillies and Mares will enter the Big Apple starting gate for the $100,000 ESR Trick or Treat, Freak Stakes.  The race will be run at One Mile over the Turf Course.

SILI CADET – it was more of a case of distance than inability to handle the Grade I level of competition in the G1 Ugly Breeders Bowl Distaff last time out for cadet trained scratch-bred 6-Year Old Light Grey Mare by Dansili out of an El Prado x Kris S. mare, so you should expect the winner of the G2 Black Dahlia and runner-up in the G1 Motherly Love Stakes to be at the top of her game as she takes on lesser rivals at a distance where she has done her best racing…one to beat

BUGLE CROSSING – you could have easily seen this nextbonus trained scratch-bred 5-Year Old Bay Mare by Cape Cross out of a Gone West x Seattle Slew mare entered in the G3 Statue Stakes in Germany in two weeks based on her performance last time out when she drew away from a star-studded field in the Here Is My Chance Turf Mare Mile;  connections are focused on winning their first ESR race of the 2018 season and appear locked and loaded to get the job done…dangerous

SAYITSYOURBIRTHDAY – 2018 has been very good to the 5 Year Old Light Grey Mare by Lookin At Lucky out of the stakes winning HAPPY BIRTHDAY KID (Unbridled’s Song), and once again the kingab connections prove that good things come to those that wait; always a nice horse at ages 3 and 4, one that you would consider a good Allowance horse, however connections always felt she could be so much more; turned out for six months, the now 5yo KY-bred kicked off 2018 with back to back stakes victories in the Chain Turf Mare Memorial and Takethecar Turf Mare Route respectively before finishing a fast closing 4th in the G3 Gallery Handicap LTO; another that appears to have a graded stakes victory in the near future…never better

LADY LEA – the frankster racing stables have been sizzling over the last few ESR races, and this week’s entry is just as likely to turn up the heat; the 4 Year Old Bay Filly by Lea out of the stakes winning LETSGETSERIOUS (Encosta De Lago) recorded her first stake victory of her career in a gate-to-wire performance in the Star Of Sal Turf Mare Mile LTO, while posting a career best 113-speed figure in the effort; she has enough tactical speed to be on or close to the lead, but you can expect her to be sprinting from the gate to get a jump on a field that is void of any serious early speed contenders…one to catch

SPECTACULAR AWE – the trotter1 trained 4-Year Old Bay Filly by Lea out of the multi-stakes producing mare MIDNIGHT AWE (Kitten’s Joy) enters the field off a three-month layoff following a lackluster performance in the Mango Code Turf Mare Mile LTO; the KY-bred is first or second in 10 of her 15 career starts, but unless she benefits significantly from the long layoff, she is merely an also ran against these…chance off best

SPIN’S PROMISE – the spinround  trained 5-Year Old Chestnut Mare by Flower Alley out of a Street Cry mare might be the most unpredictable Mare in the field, but then the same could be said of her connections; after kicking off her career on a steady diet of Local-bred races, the SAF native impressed favorably prompting her connections to take her out of her backyard and enter her in the Tarbashs Birds Dirt Juvenile Fillies where she made short work of the diverse field; her next stop was Dubai where she destroyed the field in the G3  Dubai 1000 Guineas in route to a start in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks; here’s the rub, that all came over the Dirt Course; next stop was a series of turf races, and although she never fully returned to the form that earned her a start in the Oaks, her last race, a victory in the Thundering Seon Turf Mare Challenge has once again captured the imagination of her connections…your call

MUSE OF THE NILE – the ace trained 5 Year Old Bay Mare by Pioneerof the Nile out of the stakes winning graded stakes producing mare MUSE (Danzig) seeks her first stakes victory of her 25 race career; the KY-bred has done her best racing over the Turf Course and if her last is any indication of things to come, an Open Allowance victory at 8.5-furlongs where she posted a career best 108-speed figure; she will be well-poised to record her first Black Type victory…chance off last

DON’T BE A CADET – the 4-Year Old Bay Filly by Lonhro out of the stakes winning DON’T BE A DONKEY (Oasis Dream) has seen her share of different barns throughout her career, but the former claimer has never raced better than she is right now since being claimed by the lbailey stables, the invigorated KY-bred enters the field off a pair of Allowance victories, the last while posting a career best 105-speed figure;  sure she is faced with a tough task here on Saturday, but then she has already proven she is capable of overcoming difficult challenges…happy with part

UPPERCUT STRUCK – claimed for $10k back in April of last year, the aladar connections transformed this 5-Year Old Bay Mare by Teofilo out of the stakes winning/stakes producing mare PASHA (Kingmambo) from a 4yo claimer that never ran faster than an 83-speed figure into a stakes caliber runner that has won seven consecutive races while never turning in a speed figure under 101; gained ground late LTO in the Rizzo D Turf Mare Memorial to finish 5th in her first stakes appearance earning her a solid chance against her ESR rivals…might be this good

SPECTACULAR SPA – the versatile 5-Year Old Bay Mare by English Channel out of the stakes winning/stakes producing mare SHED NO TEARS (Redoute’s Choice) is first or second in fourteen of eighteen career starts over both Turf and Dirt, but her last, after a series of 12 consecutive Dirt appearances, an Allowance win in NY over the Turf Course while posting a career best 107-speed figure over the Turf, is the race of focus as she looks to record her first stakes victory; the itch trainee is in tough, but does merit serious consideration off her last performance…must not falter

ADDITIONAL COSTS – the second of the spinround entries is the 4-Year Old Bay Filly by Siyouni out of the stakes producing mare MIRACLE AND WONDER (Kingmambo); the FR-bred has done most of her racing at the Local Ranks, and makes only her second start outside of Local competition in the 18 career appearances; last two were impressive, but perhaps she has a two-fold purpose in here a rabbit for her entry-mate while prepping for the upcoming July 31 Local Championship Stakes in Paris…would surprise

Handicapping the Field

While this rendering of an ESR feature race is no less competitive than the previous adaptations, there are three entries, SILI CADET, BUGLE CROSSING, and SAYITSYOURBIRTHDAY that separate themselves from the rest of the field.  SILI CADET was second in the G1 Motherly Love Stakes at a mile and exits the G1 Ugly Breeders Bowl Distaff at 9 panels, a distance she clearly has no interest in negotiating.  Look for her to be at the top of her game in her second start off the layoff. BUGLE CROSSING could have easily entered the G3 Statue Stakes in two weeks but elected to take on her ESR rivals.  Is she thrilled to meet SILI CADET here, probably not, but if a Graded race is in her future then she will be good enough here.  SAYITSYOURBIRTHDAY is the horse the top two will be paying close attention.  She has the look of a Mare going forward with her best races still in front of her.

LADY LEA is the main speed in here and should have little trouble shaking away from DON’T BE A CADET, SPECTACULAR SPA, and ADDITIONAL COSTS, all with running styles that are likely to be compromised in the early going.  While LADY LEA may be just a notch below the top three, she is the one to catch and speed is always dangerous.

UPPERCUT STRUCK has quickly shed that claimer distinction with her new connections and is racing well enough to be considered an upset possibility.

SPIN’S PROMISE and MUSE OF THE NILE have an outside chance but will have to run career bests to top this field while SPECTACULAR AWE must contend with a three-month layoff.

The Picks

SILI CADET – distinct class edge while dropping into winning level and distance

SAYITSYOURBIRTHDAY – well Happy Birthday to you…

BUGLE CROSSING – draws in tough against top two

Longshot

UPPERCUT STRUCK

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  6 Responses to “Back to the Upside-Down World for a Field of Eleven in the $100,000 ESR Trick or Treat, Freak Stakes”

  1. Here is how it goes in ESR:

    1. You find a race that fits your horse. You think to yourself, “good work self, you have found a good ESR spot.”

    2. You enter with confidence.

    3. You begin to inspect the competition. Your confidence wavers.

    4. Entries are drawn. You realize your horse is overmatched. Your confidence shatters.

    5. You read nice things from Mr. Trotter.

    6. Your horse gets beat.

  2. Excellent coverage with in depth analysis. Pro quality writing. Thanks for picking Robby’s horse.

  3. Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

  4. This is a Spincino creation!!

  5. I never tire of reading your write ups Pete. This is just another in a long line of best sellers. Great field in a tough heat!