Aug 032018
 

Unpredictability Looms in Grade 3 Sorgento

Fourteen 2 year old fillies head into this Sunday’s G3 Sorgento where the two biggest names on the card are carsoncity’s PIETERSZOON and tees’ RETRO SPECTRE. These two young fillies have already shown off a good amount of talent in their budding careers as PIETERSZOON finished 3rd in the G2 Hoserhead Juvenile and RETRO SPECTRE finished 2nd in the G2 Stoker Handicap.

 

While both of the fillies mentioned above have put up impressive speed figs (81 & 82 in their most recent) there are quite a few fillies in this group who look more than capable to get the job done.  GHOST ASSASSIN T, a daughter of the lightly bred SUZUKA MAMBO comes to mind. She’s shown an ability to carve out some fast fractions and sustaining her speed through longer than today’s distance.  Then we have the blue blood son of AWESOME AGAIN, GOING AGAIN who showed huge improvement in his last race scoring a 79 speed fig in a runaway victory against allowance 39K’s.

 

This is a wide open race with the lowest odds coming in the form of a 3 way tie at 7-1 for PIETERSZOON, RETRO SPECTRE, and GHOST ASSASSIN T.  It’s also probably worth mentioning that 7 of the last 9 races have been won by fillies who had odds of 7-1 or less.

 

The History of the Sorgento

From 2009 to 2012 the blue bloods ruled this race as daughters of DANSILI (SOLID GOLD DANCERS), MALIBU MOON (PASQUALENA D), & STREET CRY (STREET ETIQUETTE) were easy winners. However, in recent years we’ve seen a shift to the working class sires having more success: such as ARCH (ARC WELD), DROSSELMEYER (SUMMA CORP), SOLDAT (FRONT PAGE DREAMS), and CITY ZIP (ZIP ZIG).

 

The Sorgento has also been a catalyst of future success for some of the past winners. Take 2011 winner STREET ETIQUETTE, who went on to win the G1 Dell Computer Debutante, the Breeders Bowl, and All Saints Derby giving her the prestigious Horse of the Year award and an entry in the Bluegrass Derby. 2016 winner SUMMA CORP would go on to also win the G1 Dell Computer Debutante and place 2nd in the Grade 2 Louisiana Oaks.

 

Pace Breakdown based on most recent race (yellow indicates projected figure).

 

2018-08-03_6-49-31

 

1. PIETERSZOON (7-1)

(SPEIGHTSTOWN x GHOSTZAPPER x DYNAFORMER)

Jockey: F Oxon

Trainer: carsoncity

I really like this daughter of SPEIGHTSTOWN, but I’m not sure she’s going to have enough track to get up for the victory in this one. The inside post will most certainly help her save ground and she can get going early enough then she’s got a shot to fly past them in the stretch.

 

 

 

2. CANADIAN ZIP (8-1)

(CITY ZIP x MORE THAN READY x MARIA’S MON)

Jockey: V Luong

Trainer: alywow

She’s well-bred but is going to need to make a big jump up in performance. She’s getting an extra furlong to run at along with a massive bump up in class. My projection say she’ll be a force to be reckoned with as they hit the stretch. Personally I would have liked to have seen her win another allowance event or give listed  a try before making the jump to graded but she’s here, so let’s see what she’s got.

 

3. FALLAN AGAIN (12-1)

(TERRITORIES (IRE) x STRONG HOPE x WILD AGAIN)

Jockey: J Hernandez

Trainer: millview11

She’s a maiden who’s run twice in her young career, once against listed where she finished 2nd and posted an 81 speed fig and the second was in the G3 Butterfly Futurity where she looked way out of her element. Not really sure what to make of her but I don’t believe she’s got the grit to hang with the likes of most of these.

 

4. PRIVECTEROUS (20-1)

(BOISTEROUS x SHACKLEFORD x MR. PROSPECTOR)

Jockey: A Stange

Trainer: trotter202

Through her first three races she’s never gone more than 6 furlongs but I wouldn’t exactly call her distance challenged. The one time she went 6 it was on a sloppy track and even then she was gaining ground late. I’m not sure I can see her getting up for the victory here, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she runs some of them down late.

 

5. RETRO SPECTRE (7-1)

(CARAVAGGIO x SEA THE STARS x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY)

Jockey: O A Haack

Trainer: tees

Already a graded placed horse from her second place finish in the G2 Stoker, she’s got a deep closing style. This filly looks super talented and definitely looks capable enough to get the job done, my only reservation is I think she wants much more distance. Barring a complete pace meltdown I’m not positive she’s got enough real estate to run at.

 

6. WINTER IS BOSS (9-1)

(STREET BOSS x WESTERN WINTER x AWESOME AGAIN)

Jockey: N Gardner

Trainer: draculaura

She’s also out of the G2 Stoker where she trotted along 5 lengths off the pace throughout each call but she could’ve been spent from the monster performance from 2 back where she put up an 80 speed fig. If she can get a good break she might be able to stalk the pace and make a run in the end.

 

7. ROCKIN BLONDE (11-1)

(SEA THE MOON (GER) x FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x (FLYING SPUR)

Jockey: K Kirby

Trainer: morningdew

She’s super quick off the blocks but the numbers show she steadily fades the further she goes. Given that she had a good lead throughout her last race it is possible that she was just breezing her way around the track, but with so much speed In here I don’t see her outrunning any of these well-bred ladies.

 

8. BUSTING (11-1)

(SHOCKING x MALIBU MOON x SMART STRIKE)

Jockey: F Ford

Trainer: alimitos12

Also out of the G2 Stoker she ran with the front runners for a couple of calls before packing it in for the day. Unfortunately for her she’s going to run into some more speedsters capable of running just as quick as the horses she ran into the Stoker. Its possible she uses a different tactic today, but given her racing history I’m going to assume she’s gunning for the lead again.

 

9. GHOST ASSASSIN T (7-1)

(SUZUKA MAMBO x GHOSTZAPPER x FORTNINER)

Jockey: V Gannon

Trainer: starman

I’m very interested to see what this gal’s got at the next level. She ran a bang up race against allowance foes in her last and looks like a talented filly with tactical speed. Today’s distance certainly isn’t a question as she’s broken the maiden at the distance and won an allowance going further.

 

10. BIRDFACTS (25-1)

(BIRD SONG x THE FACTOR x RED RANSOM)

Jockey: Y Bower

Trainer: cryptoclearance

Interesting choice to jump to graded after the 5 furlong NW1X allowance victory. One thing that stood out to me was her 1st to 2nd call from that race was super slow at 25.6 seconds. She won’t be able to get away with a call that slow in this one and for that reason I’m looking elsewhere.

 

11. TAKE OUT ORDERS (9-1)

(TAKE CHARGE INDY x HENNY HUGHES x SUNDAY SILENCE)

Jockey: J White

Trainer: iddyit

Love the breeding here and from race to race she’s steadily improving. Biggest hang up with her is she’s tried 6.5 furlongs twice and has lost ground in that last half furlong both times. Its almost like she hits a wall after 6 furlongs. Will she break through that wall in this try?

 

12. EVEN IF I TRIED (16-1)

(LATIGO SHORE x OXBOW x HENNY HUGHES)

Jockey: J Sands

Trainer: bfc

Three for three winning a 4.5 furlong MC 20K, 5 furlong NW1X allowance, and a 6 furlong 35K Starter Allowance. She’s been impressive in all three and looked ridiculously fast in the most recent running 22 flat in her first quarter and maintaining her speed throughout the entire 6 furlong race. I would have liked to have seen her try listed before jumping into graded but you got to strike while the iron is hot. As a side story it should be interesting to see her and DARK SIENNA lock horns and see who gets the better of who out of the gate.

 

13. DARK SIENNA (10-1)

(MUNNINGS x DIXIE UNION x FORTY NINER)

Jockey: F Duffy

Trainer: obssales

She proved in her last that she doesn’t need the lead and is perfectly fine stalking the pace. However, all that being said there’s only one other horse in here that ran fractions faster than she did in their most recent and that’s the horse to her inside. I think this filly might be sitting on a big performance.

 

14. GOING AGAIN

(AWESOME AGAIN x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x PRIVATE ACCOUNT)

Jockey: D Givins

Trainer: urccoolmore

She’s the most classically bred of the bunch and is out of G1 winning mare GOING STRONG. She also showed some big improvement in the last race jumping from a 70 speed fig to a 79 in the 6.5 furlong victory over allowance foes. She’s got as good a shot as any in here.

 

COLUMNIST KISS OF DEATH

  1. 1.       GHOST ASSASSIN T
  2. 2.       RETRO SPECTRE
  3. 3.       DARK SIENNA

 

 

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  One Response to “Unpredictability Looms in the Grade 3 Sorgento”

  1. Thanks Francua!