Oct 072018
 

Everyone knows that in the game recently retired stallions can produce two year olds straight away while in real life breeders wait years to see which stallions start producing runners.  It isn’t always the stallions one might think will succeed either.  Every season there are surprises who step up and those who falter.  Game creator Mike has the unenviable task of trying to rate these young sires, an impossible task that guarantees some success but a lot of failure.  I’m going to take a look at the top North American second year sires in real life and how they have been used in the game.  The oldest foals for these sires are three and they are a group that have five sim crops to race.

 

The top second year sire in North America is Violence.  The son of Medaglia D’oro was a bit of a surprise to lead this group but he has produced horses who flat out run.  His runners have earnings over $3.5 million so far this year and two of his daughters have won grade three stakes this year.  Those are both a pair of three year olds, Talk Veuve To Me and Cosmic Burst.  He has two other 2018 stakes winner from his initial crop and his two year olds have earned three stakes wins so far as well as two fillies who are grade one placed.  He is currently ranked #64 on the North American General Sires List.  This year he has 122 runners, 67 winners and 6 stakes winners.

 

In the game Violence has produced 422 foals to race with 281 of those winning.  He has twenty two stakes winners and four graded winners.  The highest rank he has achieved is for his 2018 foal crop of 73 runners which ranks him 119th among all sires in the game.  This is obviously an imperfect comparison as in the game he is pitted against sires from around the globe.  To approximate real life stats we can combine his 2017 and 2018 crops (his two and three year olds) to get 149 runners with 69 winners.  All of his stakes winners from that period are from his three year old crop, of which there are four stakes winners and one graded winner.  In the game he has achieved one grade one winner, something he is still looking for in real life.

 

Second on the leading second crop sires list is Take Charge Indy.  The son of A.P. Indy out of Broodmare of the Year Take Charge Lady was sold to the Republic of Korea prior to his runners hitting the racetrack.  That decision seems to have been a mistake for his connections, as he produced four stakes winners this year, led by grade one winner Noble Indy.  He has also produced grade three stakes winner Take Charge Paula.  Overall he has 114 runners this year with 61 winners and over $3.4 million in earnings.  In March of 2018 there was some discussion of repatriating Take Charge Indy but as of this writing nothing has been announced.

 

Take Charge Indy has been ranked in the top 100 sires for each year he has had foals in the game.  His top ranking is this year’s 32.  His two and three year olds have combined for 195 foals to race and 113 winners with six stakes winners and two graded winners.  He has certainly been better received in the game than in real life with an overall number of foals at 530.  He has sired three grade one stakes winners out of a total of eight graded winners from his first five crops.

 

Shanghai Bobby is the third leading second crop sire in North America but there is a million dollar gap between him and Violence in terms of 2018 earnings.  Unlike the top two stallions who have produced six and four stakes winners respectively, Shanghai Bobby has only produced two.  Overall this year he has 115 runners and 52 winners.  The son of Harlan’s Holiday Is listed as standing at Ashford Stud for a $15,000 stud fee but interestingly he does not have an advertisement in the Blood Horse’s Stallion Register online, a sign that he likely will not be standing there in 2019.  He does shuttle to Brazil and I would not be surprised if he were sold there for permanent stud duty.

 

Shanghai Bobby has produced two graded winners in the game, including one grade one winner but compared to the credentials he retired with (two year old champion, by an emerging sire of sires) it looks like Mike may have been smart at rating this sire.  He has 410 foals in the game of which 315 are winners and twelve are stakes winners.  His best rating in the game is from his initial foal crop where he was rated 121 overall in the game.  His two and three year old foals include 115 runners and 71 winners with no stakes winners from either crop.

 

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the second crop sires is Jimmy Creed.  He is the only sire in the top five who has fewer than 100 runners this year, with 87.  Of those 43 are winners and five are stakes winners.  Jimmy Creed is a grade one winning son of Distorted Humor out of grade one winner Hookedonthefeelin who also produced grade one winner Pussycat Doll.  Last year he was represented by two year old grade two winner Spectator who is grade one placed this year.  His three year old crop also includes Kanthaka, a grade two winner.  His two year old crop includes one stakes winner and a grade two placed filly.  What may be most surprising about Jimmy Creed’s success is that he retired to stud with a $5,000 stud fee.  Jimmy Creed is less than $14,000 away from Shanghai Bobby on the sire list, with significantly less runners.

 

Jimmy Creed likely needs some readjusting in the game.  He is represented by 256 foals to race with 194 winners, six stakes winners and one graded winner.  The lone graded winner is a grade one winner from his first crop.  He has consistently been rated in the top 300 sires in the game over the past five crops years.  He has 59 two and three year old runners with thirty four of those winners.  His current two year old crop includes one stakes winner.  At 117 credits/bps (seemingly his floor) he may be worth investing in a couple of shares for next season.

 

Rounding out the top five second year sires is Flat Out.  The multiple grade one winning son of Flatter has 112 foals with 53 winners and two stakes winners.  Flat Out made only six starts from ages two through four so his emergence as the eighth ranked freshman sire last year was somewhat surprising.  He did win a listed as a three year old but he didn’t win his first graded stakes until age five.  His two stakes winners came at minor circuits but his overall numbers are solid.  He does have a grade two placed two year old this season.  He has the lowest stud fee of any of the top five sires on our list at $7,000.

 

Flat Out is also the cheapest of our sires in the game, currently at 76 bps/credits.  He only has 36 two and three year old foals of which 17 are winners and none are stakes winners.  Overall he has 202 foals with 144 winners and three stakes winners.  He does not have any graded winners so far in the game.  Flat Out likely suffers from the poor rating of his sire Flatter in the game.  Flatter has been a very solid sire in reality for many years but has not achieved the rating success of even his younger brother Congrats in the game.  Flat Out’s best sim ranking was from his 2015 crop where he was ranked 287th.

 

While analyzing sires after their first two crops race there is always a danger that other sires may overtake them as older runners come to the fore.  Three sires in North America may just do that, Point of Entry (ranked 6th on the second crop sire list), Orb (12th) and Animal Kingdom.  Point of Entry’s success with his two and three year olds has been somewhat surprising as he didn’t start racing until age three and didn’t find stakes success until age four.  He currently has two two year old stakes winners but his runners are lead by grade three winner / grade one placed Analyze It.  Orb and Animal Kingdom both were Kentucky Derby winners who did not win stakes races at age two.  Orb recently had his first grade one stakes winner from a two year old filly sprinting.  To say he has gotten off to a rocky start at stud is an understatement.  His foals were well received at the sales but his first crop has only produced two stakes winners.  Many sales buyers believed his foals to be two-turn horses and it is possible that they will get better at four but for now he is one to avoid in the game.  Animal Kingdom has done better with his runners in Australia but he did receive a controversial downgrade for 2018.  Another that could turn things around in North America but probably a pass in the game at this point.

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  5 Responses to “A Look At Second Crop Sires”

  1. One thing to follow as well – Knicks Go just won a 2yo GI by 5 lengths, he is the son of Paynter who is now in the top 5 of 2nd crop sires and may end up leading the list pending how Knicks Go does in the Breeder’s Cup Juvy. That’s the good news, the murky view is Knicks Go was 70/1 so was this a fluke or is he the real deal? Worth keeping an eye on.

  2. This is a bad crop of stallions and in a rarity I agree with Iant, most all will be gone fairly soon. Harlan’s Holiday has been an extremely good line so SB is worth following wherever he ends up. In fact this crop may be best as regional sires as it contains the likes of Brethren who is doing well in Florida as well as other Florida sires Treasure Beach (Galileo) and Soldat (War Front). Poseidon’s Warrior also stands in Florida and no one can doubt the quality of Firenze Fire, he only has 51 runners and I would expect that to increase. Orb, Declaration of War (though American breeders often have a hard time figuring out what to use with stallions like him) and Animal Kingdom are all well on their way to being busts. One I sort of like in real life (though he is bad in the SIM) is Overanalyze. He has covered almost 500 mares with massive WinStar support in his first four crops so he will have every chance to succeed, I wouldn’t give up on him just yet till we see how all these runners fare.

  3. Shanghai Bobby doing really well in Brazil see the results of stakes races this weekend. Two grade 1 turf winners one in the equivalent of The Oaks, the other a regional classic. Obviously a sire better suited to both turf and (longer distance races which are pretty much non existent in percentage terms in North America).

    The others are all pretty useless and will not be around very long. Though to be honest in each crop of stallions that go to stud in the Northern Hemisphere if get half a dozen very good sires you have an excellent return.

  4. Great stuff Spinzy.