G1 The Jockey’s Weapon
Italy – Saturday October 13, 2018
Welcome to the 2018 installment go the Grade 1, The Jockey’s Weapon. The field didn’t draw full, and also lacks the top contenders of the division due to the Breeders Bowl being right around the corner, but there are still a handful of participants that should make this a very good race. Let’s take a look at the contenders…
Trained by babies3
Here’s a 5yr old, scratch bred colt by Camelot (Seeking The Gold x Dynaformer). Drew into this lineup due to the lackluster turnout. Still eligible for NW2L allowance company, and he’s been a non-factor in every race since breaking his maiden back in March, posting a career best 95SP. Never went longer than a mile before, and based on previous runs, possibly wants to cut back from that. Seems a daunting task for this one and I’m not sure he can produce the 20+ SP increase he would need to contend.
Trained by sabbath7
Nathaniel (Diesis x Habitat) sires this 4yr old scratch bred, stakes winning gelding. Changed hands after his November allowance run in New Jersey, and this colt has taken off since. New trainer has moved him overseas and stretched him out which appears to be the perfect formula for this guy. Comes in off 5 straight, board hitting runs with 2 of them being wins. Took the listed stakes in IND wire to wire for a 3.5 length victory going 11 furlongs last out. Has a ton of speed if willing to use, needs to be weary of what Chiraq id doing. Possibility if doesn’t get used up too early.
Trained by babies4
Comes in off a hard charging, second place effort, in a 9 furlong, Local Championship Stakes in Thailand. This 4yr old colt sired by Multidimensional (Monsun x Street Cry) has made a name for himself running against locals since August of 2017. Can’t fault the 5 race win streak, coming from just off the pace, and putting up some big numbers. Have to think moving into an open G1 and stretching out to a mile and a half will be much tougher for him to post those numbers. Dam was an allowance winner going long. Seems usable on bottom end of exotics.
Trained by claimz
This longshot posts 0 wins from 7 career efforts on the turf. Sired by dirt sprinting stallion Cross Traffic (Green Desert x Rahy). Dropped an absolute clunker last out in the G3 Nickes Memorial. Three straight strong showings in restricted allowance races over dirt before that including a 3 length win going 7.5 furlongs at NEW. He’s never been past a mile and three sixteenths and doesn’t appear to favor the green beneath his hooves. Has to somehow transfer his dirt speed over to turf to have any shot at a placing. Not likely to happen, and will probably be back on dirt next out.
Trained by metroc
The third of five scratch breds in this race is this 4yr old colt by So You Think (Conquistador Cielo x Storm Bird). Metroc took a big leap with this guy last out and it didn’t work out so well. Facing graded company for the first time, and going two miles, he turned in his 11-1 odds into a sixth place finish and beaten 36 ¾ lengths. Previous efforts were better, including a 2+ length win going todays distance three back. Does have the edge on some of the other longer shots in here having the experience and success going the distance and on the surface vs allowance runners. Best of rest.
Trained by deepesr3
He’s a G2 winner with over $800k already in the bag. This son of Nathaniel is out of the stakes winning mare Shakespeare Prayer (Marcus Andronicus x Fappiano). Although his dam did her best work over the dirt surface, this guy saw a major uptick in SP since coming over to the grass. He also posts 10 straight races with triple digit SP’s. His most notable win came in March, in the G2 The Sandy Ray Handicap where he sat in second, a few lengths off the pace, and rallied for a three length score. I can definitely see a scenario where he may be able to replicate that. Finished second last out in the G1 G.P. Von Baden at this distance. Looms a large threat for win.
Trained by siimsters1
Summoning the echoes of tv show’s past is this 4yr old gelding by Fastnet Rock (Dubawi x Empire Maker). So far the only winner out of three foals for this dam, and he has been good. Sports 7 wins from 16 turf starts with 6 other ITM finishes. Appeared in three straight local races leading up to this race, one of which was a stakes where he finished a hard closing third, beaten by 4 ¾ lengths. Hails from a barn that knows how to get them ready for their absolute best. Have to imagine he wasn’t pushing his horse to the max versus the locals. Biggest triumph came five starts back in the G3 CEO Classic going 12 furlongs in KY, where he was 8.5 lengths back at the third call and won by 2.5. Lookout field!
Trained by rockintime
Dylan Thomas (El Gran Senor x Lear Fan) sires this scratchbred. Has come to the plate 16 times with 3 wins and 2 other placings. Attempted the two mile G2 Longdale Cup with the #5 last out with even less success, coming in last and was distanced. Most of his success has come in restricted allowance races facing small fields, 11 of 16 races have been vs 9 horse or less fields. Deserving of longshot odds and has a high SP of 97 which came 2 starts back. Seems to like distance running, so he’s got that going for him. May be able to stay ahead of some other tiring horses. Looking elsewhere for contender.
Trained by derekcarlson3
This scratch bred son of Sea The Stars (Montjeu x Northern Dancer) doesn’t like looking at the backside of horses around any turn, so it’s impervious that he grabs the lead from the gate. All five wins have come from wiring the field. Took to the G2 Del Webb last out, where he was pressured every step of the way (by my horse unfortunately who is a front runner also), but kept on strong to finish 5th. Hasn’t made the lead in previous Graded attempts but should be able to grab in here as only the #2 can possibly step with him from the go. Could get very brave if left to a comfortable lead and make it hard for the closers to catch him. Lots to like!
Trained by aquadeep1
Another head scratcher as far as placement. Still eligible for NW2x and NW1y. He’s a 5yr old son of Dark Angel and the second stakes winning offspring from stakes placed mare Rockvotel (Rock Hard Ten x Pivotal). Dam was a sprinter, but he has taken to a little longer footing. A well traveled colt that seems to look for graded races to jump into that do not fill. Now the bad…. He hasn’t been relevant in a stakes or graded race since July of 2017 and hasn’t won any type of race since December of 2016. The last triple digit SP recorded was a year ago where he finished 5thof 10, and 8.5 lengths back of the winner. Recent races are discouraging. Pass on this one.
Trained by zbarb8
This 4yr old gelding is sired by Noble Mission, by stakes winning mare Kofewalt (Monsun x Dynaformer). A G2 winner of nearly $500k, makes only his sixth start of the season. Sports 6 wins from 21 starts. Career best effort two back in the Dancing North Cup when he posted a 119SP. Didn’t fire his late kick last out in the G1 G.P. Von Baden, finishing 7th, beaten by nearly 14 lengths. Sees a rival from that race here that finished well in front of him that day. This guy would love to see a battle up front, but not sure that’s going to happen. Must not get too far back, and be able to fire when called upon.
Handicapping:
(6)Classy Point and (7)Archie Trunker are probably the 2 best horses in the race and should be 1-2 in either order.
(9) Chiraq will be leading the way until late, where I believe he gives way to the top two choices.
(11) Barb’s Crusade, (2) Baff El Meh and (3) Amba Volvo will be improving position in the late stages but are not quite at the level of top choices.
Longshot Play: (5) That’s How It Goes has a chance to improve off of last and can hit the board if positioned right.
The Bet = $16
$2 Trifecta Wheel
6-7 w/
6-7 w/
2-3-9-11
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very nicely done thanks