TRUMP versus REAL Statistics

 Posted by at 11:20 pm  Breeding
Oct 172018

The year in terms of top class racing is fast coming to an end. Sire tables will not change that drastically. It is therefore interesting to look at sire statistics in the real world and the simulated world.

Just looking at the 2017 real life sim crop and 2015 real life crop who are the top graded producing sires of 3yo’s.

There are two obvious points to make firstly the real life statistics are only for the Northern Hemisphere so apologies to those who live where the stars shine differently. Secondly the sim demographics where the greatest number of players come from North America which will increase sire usage of the domestic product therefore increase the probability of graded stakes winners.

Sim sires with 4 or more graded stakes winners (with real life runners)

Galileo 10, Frankel 9, Tapit 9, Giant’s Causeway 8, Sea The Stars 8, Oasis Dream 7, Uncle Mo 7, Fastnet Rock 5, Curlin 5, Ghostzapper 5, Distorted Humor 5, Dubawi 5, Sepoy 4, King Kamehameha 4, Medaglia D’Oro 4, War Front 4, Malibu Moon 4 and Deep Impact 4

Real Life sires with 4 or more graded stakes winners (still living)

Galileo 17, Deep Impact 9, Dubawi 8, Camelot 6, Frankel 6, Malibu Moon 5, Curlin 4, Into Mischief 4, Kitten’s Joy 4, Medaglia D’Oro 4, Quality Road 4, Candy Ride 4, Mastercraftsman 4, Siyouni 4, New Approach 4, Dark Angel 4 and Exceed And Excel 4

Observation at first sight the lists in terms of numbers of sires is very close and given the sim’s concentration of breeding on top sire is rather reassuring.

7 stallions appear on both lists which again shows for the most part there is good correlation between the sim and real life. Some of the differences relate to culture and sim player demographics as would have been expected.

If we look at some of the differences a lot can be assessed due to opportunity or lack of it as the case maybe. This is further reinforced by many players have closed mines resistant to change especially if the sire is not on Mike’s upgraded/downgrade list.

Of the sires on both lists one jumps out Galileo why is he doing so poorly in the sim comparatively? The impression from the few I have is they mature slowly and as such many are hitting the wear and tear threshold before their talent kicks in. It is always worth remembering with sim horses they have five development speeds which in the age of wear and tear is not good news if your horse is in average let alone slow or very slow maturing. Personally I would like to see these time frames reduced to kick in earlier to reflect heavy wear and tear. The sire maturity type’s are hidden in Wiki but guessing which one a particular sire falls under is not easy as it does not tell you.

Tapit has had a somewhat spectacular fall from grace. His 2015 offspring have performed exceptionally badly and the next crop does not look promising either hence the real life 25%  fee drop a sim rating drop of similar would not be out of place.

Giant’s Causeway he is on the list for the most part due to his 310 foals in the in the sim versus real life of 91 around 30% of the fake crop size. If his crop size was comparable the results would be similar. The question here is should a sim sire be breeding 300+ horses? Especially if not a shuttle sire.

Sea The Stars another horse effected by crop size to a certain extent. His offspring are maturing quicker in the sim than real life which may need a tweak. Then you would see percentages fall into line.

Oasis Dream Mike downgraded this year rightly so.

Uncle Mo his real life runners are his crop 4, these will be his worst bred and smallest in number. If you look at his global cumulative results they are top class. Would I expect in two years to see him on the real life list when his better bred offspring are 3yo’s? Yes, his 2yo’s are already showing improved statistics off the better quality mares.

Fastnet Rock if we could combine hemisphere statistics he would be on the list in real life enough said.

Ghostzapper he appears to be overbred in the sim in terms of quality hence the high rating. You do wonder “what if” some of those mares had been bred elsewhere.

Distorted Humor and War Front both percentage wise look fine but low real life fertility is keeping the numbers down in more ways than one.

Sepoy dog of a sire Darley gave up shuttling. He did fulfil expectations though in achieving that. If you look at his 2yo statistics it already looks like Mike gave him the deserved downgrade. Mike’s rating are far superior to where they were 10 years ago not a lot is drastically wrong and most are situations like Tapit where a sire changes in performance and it takes a year to catch up see Oasis Dream.

King Kamehameha Mike downgraded Japanese as a group. Any that are not named Deep Impact probably deserve to drop some more. Especially given the restricted nature of the racing.

On to the real top notches not in the simulated top bracket.

Camelot these are impressive results so far. The two important points to raise here are is he a typical Coolmore first year one hit wonder and then in 5 year’s he is somewhere you have never heard of before. The later concern being his offspring are taken a while to mature does that fit in with the sim trainers mentality? and of course the rapid wear and tear.

Into Mischief upgraded by Mike correct decision looks like he needs to raise him some more.

Kitten’s Joy it is fair to say he has been the best managed stallion in the world and exploited exceptionally well to be the only big fish in a small pond. It will be interesting to see how he performs against the continued Chad Brown yearling purchases from other shores when they start targeting the soft 3yo graded turf races.

Quality Road has had a break out year across the board, his statistics are top class this year. You would be surprised if he was not the major top end bump this year. At the time of writing this he was available for less than 500bps which for a dirt sire of his ability is amazing value for money. If I bred a lot of dirt horses I would be stocking up for the next year.

Candy Ride he has been bred a lot less times in 2017 in the sim to 2016 and has the same number of graded winners which suggests he had been upgraded. The other factor looking at his sim runners and real life runners many improve with age which in the sim means lots do not reach their true potential as 99.9% of us fail to manage our sim horse’s careers properly. Patient is the key unless Mike takes a look at stallion development periods which personally I would suggest is not a bad idea.

New Approach, Dark Angel, Mastercraftsman and Exceed And Excel pretty much fit into the “what if” category applied to Ghostzapper in reverse.  These stallions all offer good value for money.

Siyouni is the different sire on the European list the sires runners to date have all been bred for equal or less than €15k. The ones coming through have much stronger pedigrees and you would expect  just like Uncle Mo and Into Mischief his results to spiral upwards. It would be a major super if he is not an elite sires within the next 3 years.

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  11 Responses to “TRUMP versus REAL Statistics”

  1. Very well done. Great balance of facts, opinion and “what it.” I learned a lot. Breeding is by far my favorite part of the game. And, as with sex, you can enjoy it immensely even if you’re not very good at it.

  2. MAGA

  3. I think this is some of your best work. Would enjoy hearing more of your thoughts as they relate to dam sires.

    • It would be great to be able to do something like that but trying to capture and present the data in a way which is easy to compare in a similar fashion is not so easy or my ability to access available data sucks. There is a lot more going on there so it would be way more interesting. Though practical solutions to a few obvious problems could well be harder due to how the game is or isn’t coded.

  4. Very well done and informative. Thanks

  5. Lovely article iant. You have mentioned a number of sires I’ve been collecting shares in :) . One I would note is Zoffany. His first crop exceeded all expectations, much like Uncle Mo’s. Unlike Mo his second and third crops have been disappointing in comparison. But his most recent crop of 2yos were bred after that first crop went to the races. I know he hasn’t had a breakout star yet but he is one I am watching to see if he returns to the promise he showed early on with better mares behind his foals this year.

  6. Thanks — interesting read :)

  7. Excellent article iant…you made some very good points