Jan 192019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  Forty Niner Cause looks like the real deal, as he blitzed to the lead in the 9f NW2L Allowance and never looked back.  He opened up as many as 6 lengths on the field going into the stretch, before jockey W. Kelly eased up, allowing Forty Niner Cause to cruise to a 1-3/4 length victory.  Subjecttothefates, answering the call when stretching out, showed a strong closing kick, moving from 10th (12-1/2 lengths back) early to finish 2ndForrester’s Dancer sat midpack early and gained some in the stretch, narrowly getting edged out by Subjecttothefates and finishing 3rd, 2 lengths back.  It was another 9-1/4 back to 4th.  The top 3 look like legitimate watch horses for the future, and in particular the winner, as Forty Niner Cause’s 101.475 SP was the 2nd fastest 3yo allowance winning SP of the weekend (trailing only Bode Girl, the runner-up in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and the winner of the Texas NW3L Allowance that was #3 on last week’s “Other Races To Watch” list).  Subjecttothefates and Forrester’s Dancer both earned 99 SPs.

Before we get to this week’s race, a couple of administrative notes.  First, the races being spotlighted here may not be the most interesting 3yo Allowance races of the week.  I am not able to get the full list of entries for the race until the day before the race (for example, if the race is on Saturday, I won’t have access to the full final entry list until Friday morning).  This simply isn’t enough time to write up a proper preview of the level I’m comfortable with.  So instead, I’m basing my decision on which race to cover on entries for a race by horses entered through either Monday or Tuesday on a given week.  I’ll still cover all of the actual entrants in the preview, but it’s possible that there may have been other races that become more “interesting” as new horses get entered throughout the week.  However, I’ll still list the other most interesting races at the bottom of the article, so even if I’m not previewing the most interesting, you’ll still know which ones they are.  Second, I’m going to limit the races to Allowance races being run on the weekend (Saturday or Sunday).  Every once in a while I may throw in a race from a different day to the list of other races to watch, but the preview itself will always be for a weekend race.

Ok, that’s enough administrative stuff.  This week, we travel to Indiana to check out the 3yo filly division, where 11 fillies line up for a NW1x Allowance at 8.25 furlongs on the dirt.  The field of 11 entering the starting gate is:

#1 – Ocean Park Wind (Ocean Park (NZ) x Ransom’s Ecstacy [Red Ransom x Pulpit]) – Owned by chibound – 9/1

Race Record: 5:1-2-0; $56,786

Race History: It took 5 tries, but Ocean Park Wind comes into this race off of a maiden breaking score back in December 2018.  The maiden win, her first on the dirt after 4 races on the turf to start her career, saw her take down a 7f MSW by ½ lengths, earning a career best 86 SP.  In that race, she shot out of the gate and never looked back, setting the pace and holding on to win.  Ocean Park Wind debuted at 6f on turf, but was quickly stretched out to 8f and showed an affinity for the distance.  She’ll try to repeat those efforts on the dirt here in a pace-setting style.

Pedigree: Ocean Park, the 2012 Cox Plate winner and 2012-2013 NZ Horse of the Year, currently stands in New Zealand for $30,000, with 1 stakes winner from his first 2 crops.  He is not super popular in the sim, as his 2018 crop has only 24 runners to date.  Of those 24, 17 are winners, including 1 stakes winner.  That stakes win came in a 5.5f turf sprint, which is what Ocean Park’s sim progeny tend to prefer (79% earnings on turf, 65% in sprints).  His 3yo crop is winning at a 20% rate, significantly better than his overall 15% win percentage.  Overall in the sim, he has 1 career graded stakes winner, Pacific Playground, who was a G2 winner at 7f on the turf.  On the dam side, Ocean Park Wind is the 5th foal of 16yo Ransom’s Ecstacy.  Ransom’s Ecstacy was a stakes winner at 8f on dirt and winner of 5 races from 36 tries.  Only one of her children is an allowance winner (a career best effort at 6.5f on the turf in a 5 horse field), and her four previous children have all preferred turf, relying on her pedigree more than her race record.  Ocean Park has been bred to a Red Ransom mare 5 other times in the past 4 years, and that list includes 2 stakes winners, Seaside Playground and Waikato Ransom (both in turf sprints).

Expectations: Ocean Park Wind is very likely going to contest the lead, and she has some sprint speed to do it.  Her last race was promising and a career best, but the 2nd and 3rd place horses, who were sitting close to the pace, were getting closer as the wire approached, so this filly with a sprinter pedigree might not quite have the stamina to get this distance.  But her mom did show off some skills at 8f, and the last race was a very promising first dirt effort, so if she improves in her second dirt try, she might have a shot here.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Silly Magic (Zulu Magic x Silly Claim Games [It’s No Joke x Montjeu]) – Owned by bad – 11/1

Race Record:  6:1-2-3; $60,985

Race History: Silly Magic broke her maiden in her third race on the dirt, but comes into this one off of 2 turf runs.  The two turf races, both at the NW2L level at 8f, were consistent with her prior to races at 8f on the dirt, as she earned 80-82 SPs for each of the 4 races, with 1 win (in her maiden score) and 3 3rd place finishes.  She has either set or sat just off the pace in each of her races to date.  The 2nd place horse in her maiden score popped a 94 SP on a good dirt track at the end of 2018 to break her maiden.  Silly Magic is coming off a career high 82 SP in her last race, on the good turf track back in December 2018.  Here, she will try to get a boost from shifting back to dirt.

Pedigree: Zulu Magic, a son of Johannesburg, previously stood in Michigan for a $1,000 stud fee before dying in 2017 at the age of 12.  But he was unknown enough in real life that he hasn’t left stud duty in the sim just yet.  He was the #6 ranked sire in Michigan in real life in 2018, with 4 winners from 7 runners.  In the sim, his 2018 crop includes 2 winners from 6 runners (to date), and this 3yo crop is his best to date.  That is boosted by Silly Magic, who, as a maiden winner, is already Zulu Magic’s 4th best horse of all time in the sim.  He has only sired 4 allowance winners out of 24 total runners, and much like the sire himself, most of his sim progeny prefer dirt sprints.  Silly Claim Games, the 14yo mare, is a G3-winning turf sprinter, winning stakes races in the 6.5-7.5f range.  Silly Magic is her third child, but both prior children prefer turf miles (neither has won above the claimer/HOT allowance level).  This is actually the second Zulu Magic x It’s No Joke cross in the sim; the first, Michigan Jungle, is one of the 4 allowance winners, at 9f on dirt.

Expectations: Silly Magic is going to make a run for the lead here, but will probably have to sit just off of what will likely be a hot pace.  That pace certainly won’t help her, as she hasn’t been able to withstand the rush of others in any of her three previous allowance attempts.  She’s probably a cut below the best here, but as the first race of her 3yo year and going turf to dirt, there’s certainly a chance she could pop a solid performance here.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – Minesaver (Super Saver x Legendary Gold [Mineshaft x Quiet American]) – Owned by trotter1 – 6/1

Race Record: 6:1-2-0; $70,981

Race History: Minesaver broke her maiden in her third attempt, back in August 2018, in her first route effort, stalking the pace and then drawing off to win by 1-1/2.  She has run 3 times at the allowance level, including a 2nd place finish in the ESR My Day Will Come Hopeful (a fitting name for a horse in this series) 2 races back.  That 2nd place finish, where she set the pace and held on for 2nd, earned her a career best 90 SP.  The winner from that one followed up the race with a closing 6th place run (91 SP).  Minesaver comes into this one off of a 4th place finish in an 8f allowance, where she picked up an 85 SP after setting the pace and getting edged out of a top 3 finish.  This will be her longest race, after 4 straight 8f tries.

Pedigree: Super Saver, the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, finished 2018 as the #67 ranked sire in the US in real life.  His 2018 sim crop is not ranked as highly, with his 89 runners combining for only 37 winners who have won at a 14% rate.  This is slightly off the 17% rate that his older horses maintain.  Super Saver’s sim horses strongly prefer the dirt (75% earnings on dirt), but while the earnings are higher in routes, the fastest of the horses tend to be sprinters.  He only has 1 stakes winner from the 3yo class, who succeeded at 8.5f on the turf.  Legendary Gold, Minesaver’s 13yo dam, was a stakes placed mare at 8f on the dirt, and excelled at the 7-8.5f distance, picking up 11 wins in 36 races.  Minesaver is her 4th child, and her sim-¾ brother, Securitas Depot (Bank Heist), is a G3-winning dirt sprinter.  Super Saver has paired with a Mineshaft mare one other time in the past 4 years, and that other pairing resulted in a long-distance dirt runner who has won 9 allowances in 31 races, with a max SP of 115.

Expectations: Minesaver should be at or near the lead, and should put a solid run together.  The real question is whether there are other horses that can keep up with her.  The added 0.25 furlongs might be pushing her limits, but she’s still got a chance here.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Henty Iron (Nyquist x Outback Iron [Tapit x Kingmambo]) – Owned by tulloch – 9/2(f)

Race Record: 3:1-0-2; $39,610

Race History: Henty Iron looked strong in her debut at 6f back in August 2018, breaking her maiden at first asking after sitting off the pace and pulling ahead to win by 1 length.  The 2nd place horse in that race went on to put up a 90 SP in her last race at 8f.  Henty Iron’s was then stretched out to 8f, where she ran 3rd in back-to-back NW2L allowances.  In each of those races, she stalked the pace, sitting a few lengths back early, but never really showed the turn of foot to find the winner’s circle, as she let other horses pass her in both efforts.  But her most recent race was promising; after sitting 7th early, she managed to catch the front-runners and pass them, only to get passed by the 2 horses who were sitting behind her early.  That race earned her a career best 86 SP, and she hopes to improve off of that one here.

Pedigree: Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, currently stands for $40,000 and although his real life progeny have not yet hit the track, his weanlings sold at auction in 2018 for an average of $279K.  In the sim, Nyquist has been a pretty strong sire in his first 2 classes, as his 2018 crop currently ranks 45th, with 53 winners out of 113 runners.  Those 3yos have won 17.4% of their races thus far, and that crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Nadera, is a G1 winner who was the 4th choice in the 2018 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly (she finished 6th).  His progeny tend to prefer the dirt (84% earnings on dirt), and he has seen success in both sprints and routes (though the highest speed figures tend to be in sprints).  Outback Iron, Henty Iron’s 8yo dam, was a 5-time stakes winner at the 10-11f dirt range, so she brings some needed stamina to the pedigree.  Henty Iron is her 3rd progeny (all fillies thus far).  Her first two fillies are by Uncle Mo, so it’s no surprise she went to Nyquist here.  The first foal, Finke Iron, is a stakes winner herself, taking down a 12f dirt stakes.  Tapit mares, meanwhile, have been bred to Nyquist 13 times already, with 1 stakes winner and 1 stakes placed horse (each at 8.5f) among them.

Expectations: Henty Iron has seen her speed improve in each of her three races, although her 2 allowance tries saw her stagnate late.  But her most recent run was a little better looking than it may first appear, as she was only outrun by 2 deeper closers against a hot pace.  She seems likely to get another hot pace to run into here, and she’ll likely sit mid-pack early.  The real question is whether she can make the jump at 3 to really progress off of that last race.  If she can, she’ll be dangerous here.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Babelsburg (Unified x Al Mufti x Adjudicating) – Owned by plano29 – 15/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Race History: The least experienced filly in the field, Babelsburg only has 1 race under her belt, and it was a HOT MSW.  In that race, back in December 2018, planoaxius sent out 11 of his fillies to see what he had.  Babelsburg looked slow out of the gate, but she navigated the 8f distance expertly for a first-time runner and closed from 6 lengths back to win by 1.  Importantly, the 3 pacesetters held on for 3rd, 4th, and 5th, well ahead of the horses behind them, indicating that either (a) it wasn’t an easy pace to close into, or (b) the top 5 horses from that race were a real cut above the rest.  None of those 5 has been back on the track since that hot race, so we’re a little blind into the competition there.

Pedigree: Unified, a winner of graded stakes from 7f-9f, was a freshman sire in 2018, so there is no real life data to look at.  His first sim crop has seen 37 runners to date, from which 15 have broken their maidens with a 12.4% win rate overall.  Those 37 runners have strongly preferred dirt, with 85% of earnings coming from dirt, but only 3 of his progeny have thus far won an allowance race, and 2 of those 3 were HOT allowance races.  The fastest speed figures of his progeny have tended to be in sprints.  A couple of his progeny that looked like they might appreciate extra running room backed up a bit when they stretched into the route category.

Expectations: It’s hard to know what will happen for Babelsburg in this race, as she has only run once, in a hot race, she has a freshman sire with middling, at best, popularity, and she is a scratch-bred filly.  So it’s no surprise that the oddsmakers made her the longshot.  But that maiden score showed real promise.  She’s already proven at 8f, unlike some others in this field, and she demonstrated a solid closing kick.  Add to that the fact that this race has a lot of early speed, and there’s a big opening for a solid closer.  Babelsburg is one to watch here.

Watch Level: High

#6 – Peace Bond T (Peace and Justice x Itoupava’s Flower [Sadler’s Wells x Kris S.]) – Owned by pup – 7/1

Race Record: 7:1-2-3; $70,206

Race History: Peace Bond T comes into this race off of a 4th place finish in a field of 4 in her first allowance try, beaten 7-1/2 lengths in an 8.5f NW3L.  But she picked a tough field to run against that day, as the winner was a stakes placed sprinter stretching out for the first time.  Peace Bond T’s previous race was her maiden-breaking run, where she earned a career high 86 SP winning by 2 lengths in an 8f MSW.  Peace Bond T’s first race, at 6.5f, saw her run 2nd to a filly that is stakes placed on the turf.

Pedigree: Peace and Justice, a son of War Front, standing in PA for $2,500, entered stud in 2017 and so has no real world children.  In the sim, his 3yo crop includes 41 runners, of whom 33 have won at a 15% clip.  He has 2 stakes winners (one residency, one local) from his 4yo crop, both on the turf around 8f, but no graded winners to date.  Meanwhile, his 3yo crop has preferred dirt races (60% earnings on dirt), and in general seems to be a sprint sire.  The dam, 18yo Itoupava’s Flower, has given birth to 14 sim runners, of which Peace Bond T is the 13th.  She was primarily a dirt sprinter, regardless of what her pedigree would suggest.  Peace Bond T’s sim-¾ sibling, Angry Dude T (Due Diligence), is the only stakes winner of the lot, all in dirt sprints of the 6-7f range.  Only 3 other siblings are allowance winners, mostly in turf routes.

Expectation: Peace Bond T looks to sit close to the lead in this one, but her first allowance try saw her struggle to keep up with horses at this level.  It took her ¾ sister 6 or 7 races to really show what she could do, and there was another improvement as a 3yo, so it’s possible that some progression is coming here.  But the struggle last time in a 4 horse field, plus the fact that most of her siblings have not won an allowance, is a little concerning.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – Seaside Fantasy (Sea The Stars x Raging River Snake [Dansili x Storm Cat]) – Owned by empirez – 6/1

Race Record: 5:1-1-2; $63,390

Race History: Seaside Fantasy comes into this race as the most accomplished filly in the field, as she picked up a 3rd place finish 2 races back in a 8f turf stakes, making her the only stakes placed horse in the field.  That stakes run, on a yielding turf course, followed her maiden breaking performance, in an 8.5f turf MSW in her 3rd start back in September 2018.  In that maiden score, Seaside Fantasy sat midpack early and then pounced in the stretch, running down the pacesetter and drawing away to win by 1-3/4 lengths.  Her most recent race was her most disappointing run, as she finished 6th as the 3rd betting choice in an 8.5 turf stakes, beaten 8-1/4 lengths, though she earned a career high 85 SP in the process.  That field looks pretty solid, as running 4th in that one was Let, who was 4th in the 2018 Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf, but Seaside Fantasy struggled to keep up with the field, sitting 6th the entire race and never gaining on the leaders.  She will try dirt for the first time here, hoping that she can carry some of the closing speed she found in her maiden score onto the dirt track.

Pedigree: It’s no surprise that this is Seaside Fantasy’s first try on dirt, as her pedigree screams turf.  Sea The Stars, 2009 European Horse of the Year and one of the highest rated sim sires ever when he entered stud, was the #23 ranked sire in the EU + NA in 2018.  That ranking pales in comparison to his sim ranking, where his 2018 crop is currently ranked #11 (his lowest ranking).  That 2018 crop is made up of 170 runners to date, of which 95 have earned a win, and the class has collectively won at a 20% rate.  Sea The Stars is, not surprisingly, a turf route sire, with 75% of earnings coming on turf and 69% in routes.  His 3yos include 6 stakes winners to date, all but one of whom has done so on turf.  Raging River Snake, a 9yo mare, has had 3 fillies thus far, but Sea The Stars is the most expensive sire that she has been sent to.  Raging River Snake won 7 of 38 in her career and spent most of her time on the turf, though she was equally good on the dirt.  Her best run was a 4th place finish in a 7f turf stakes.  Her first child, The New Girl (Gold Allure), picked up where she left off and is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf, while also winning multiple stakes in the 6.5f-7f range.  She’s still active and has earned just over $600K to date.  The second filly, Rock River Cat (Rock Hard Ten), narrowly missed a stakes placing, finishing 4th in a 7f turf stakes, and has never finished worse than that 4th in 14 turf races (her debut, at 4.5f on the dirt, was far less inspiring).  Sea The Stars has been bred to Dansili mares 25 times in the past 4 years, with 4 stakes winners and 1 graded stakes winner among the group (all on turf).

Expectations: Seaside Fantasy’s pedigree and quality of past competition puts her high up on the list in this field, and she comes into this one with improving speed figures.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see her run very well here.  But there are some red flags.  The pedigree SCREAMS turf, and although her mother was equally good on dirt, her only dirt-trying sister proved that the dirt track isn’t for everyone.  She has also struggled in her last couple of turf races to keep up with faster horses through the stretch.  Definitely don’t count her out of this one though.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Tempe Nights (Drefong x Street’s Closed [Street Cry x Dehere]) – Owned by worldclass9 – 9/1

Race Record: 5:1-1-2; $53,699

Race History: It took a few tries for Tempe Nights to break her maiden, but she finally got to run like she wanted to when she was stretched out to 8f in her 4th race back in September 2018.  Her previous 3 tries in 5-6f sprints had her closing from well off the lead but running out of room, so when she got an extra 2 furlongs, she was finally able to pounce.  In a field of 9, she sat last early, but decided to start her move early, and by the time they hit the stretch, she was already second.  She easily ran down the leader and drew off to win by 3, earning a 77 SP.  Tempe Nights was given some extra time off after that race, and came back at the end of November like a horse on fire.  Running in an 8.5f NW2L, she fell more than 10 lengths back in the backstretch, but slowly started gaining ground and then unleashed a strong kick in the stretch, coming up a mere neck short of the victory and earning a career best 92 SP.  The winner from that one repeated next time out in a 9f allowance, where she drew off to win by 2.  Tempe Nights cuts back by ¼ furlong here for her first race as a 3yo.

Pedigree: Drefong, the 2016 Champion Sprinter in the US, entered stud in 2018 in Japan, so he has no real life progeny to note.  The freshman sire has 60 sim runners to date, and 20 of those have found their way into the winner’s circle.  His first crop is winning at only an 11% clip, but among those is Dragon Seed, a two-time stakes winner at 5-5.5f on the dirt.  Much like Drefong, his progeny have been primarily dirt sprinters, with 82% of earnings coming from the dirt and 83% in sprints.  But his bloodlines (Gio Ponti x Ghostzapper) indicate some stamina, so we may see some longer runners as the races stretch out for his 3yo crop.  Tempe Nights is the 8th foal of 16yo mare Street’s Closed, who was a winner of 2 from 14 races in her career.  Street’s Closed did her best work in dirt sprints, but her progeny have shown more stamina than she ever did.  She has one stakes winner, Sara Cadet (Fort Wood), a local stakes winner at 8.5f, and one stakes placed horse, Raven’s Pumpkin (Raven’s Pass), who is stakes placed at 9f.  Most of her progeny seem to prefer dirt routes.

Expectations: Tempe Nights may only be 9/1 according to the oddsmakers, but from this uninformed fan, she looks like the one to beat.  The 92 SP in her last race is the highest in the field, and worldclass9 has given her some extra time off after that race to recoup.  She is a deep closer who finds a race filled with pace, and her siblings all like dirt routes.  She may want slightly more ground than this, but she’s got a real good chance in here.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Seeking Zensation (Zensational x Seeking a Miracle [Seeking The Gold x Northern Dancer]) – Owned by daydreams0 – 5/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $22,645

Race History: Seeking Zensation made a splash early, as she was slow to get out of the gate in a 5f MSW back in August 2018, but quickly passed horses in her move from 11th on her way to a 1 length maiden victory.  That run led to a stakes attempt at 5.5f, but it turns out that 5.5f may not have been enough ground.  She again started slow, and again picked off horses, but she could only get as close as 6th, 2-3/4 lengths back, before the wire.  The 77 SP she earned there was about the same as the 78 SP from her maiden, so for her next race Seeking Zensation made a big jump to 8.5f, while dropping in class to a NW2L allowance.  There, she demonstrated that routing is where she wants to be.  Again starting slow, opening in 11th of 12, she harnessed that closing power and moved up as the race went on, and then unleashed a kick in the stretch to pull her within ¾ of the pacesetting winner, 3 lengths clear of 3rd.  The winner came back to run 2nd in an 8f turf stakes next time out, while 3rd from that race ran 4th next time out with a 90 SP in a 9f race.  Seeking Zensation comes into this race off a career best 88 SP in that NW2L allowance.

Pedigree: Zensational, a G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Argentina and I can’t find much about his current success or failure in the real world.  In the sim, however, his 2018 crop is currently the #46 ranked crop, with 50 winners from 88 runners to date.  The standout horse from his 3yo progeny is Rockfest Bandit, winner of the G1 Frickazee Stakes (at 8f) and 5 of 8 races overall.  4 others from the crop are currently stakes placed.   Much like his racing career, Zensational’s sim progeny strongly prefer dirt sprints, with 81% of earnings on the dirt and 67% in sprints.  The 3yo crop shows a strong affinity for dirt, though there are some strong route runners in the class as well.  Seeking Zensation is the 3rd foal, all fillies, of stakes winning 14yo mare Seeking A Miracle.  Seeking A Miracle went 8 for 39 in her career, with 2 stakes wins at 7.5f on the dirt.  Although most of the wins were in sprints, her limited exposure to route races showed that she had some ability at the 8-9f range as well.  Her first daughter, Drosselmiracle (Drosselmeyer) is an allowance winner in dirt routes, while her second daughter, Mathematical (Algorithms), is an allowance winner in dirt sprints, though Mathematical has also shown a closing kick and ran decently (a closing 6th) in her only route attempt at 8f.  Zensational has been crossed with a Seeking The Gold mare 13 times in the past 4 years, and that cross has produced 1 stakes winner, who did so in dirt sprints.

Expectation: The pedigree may lean sprint, but Seeking Zensation has been screaming for more distance and she will get a chance here to prove that her last race was not a fluke.  She’s coming off of a strong improvement in a 2nd place finish in her first route effort, and the fact that she’s got some stakes history that didn’t cause her to crack is a sign of good things to come once she finds the right distance.  With the speed up front, expect to see her coming late with a strong bid here.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Bospityev (Street Boss x Pulpit x Nureyev) – Owned by kody15 – 14/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-1; $41,026

Race History: Bospityev struggled early in her career, but once she was given some running room beyond 5.5f, she was finally able to stretch her legs.  In her fourth and most recent race, a 7f MSW back in November 2018, she came back to the dirt after a failed turf effort and was finally able to run like she wanted to, and pounced.  After having to settle behind other horses in a mad sprint for the finish line at 5f, in the 7f MSW she was able to grab the lead early, and she never looked back.  Bospityev started out setting a reasonable pace, and the was left to run free, and she opened up a 3-1/4 length lead at the top of the stretch.  She then cruised to a 2 length victory, earning a career best 84 SP, a significant jump over her prior best 67.  The 6th place horse from that maiden race came back next time out to win a 9f MSW with an 87 SP.  It was a nice change for Bospityev from the short sprint, and she’ll try to stretch out here again.

Pedigree: Street Boss, a G1-winning sprinter, was the #94 ranked sire in the EU + North America in 2018 in the real world, and is currently the #215 ranked sire for his 2018 sim class.  That class includes 72 runners, of which 27 have currently broken their maidens, winning races at an 11.6% rate (lower than his approximately 14% rate overall).  But what the class lacks in raw numbers, it makes up for in class.  The 27 winners include 3 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners (all in dirt sprints).  Among the graded winners are G1-winning Land Boss, who won the G1 Hopeless Stakes at 7f before faltering when stretched out for the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, and Winter Is Boss, a filly who took down a 6.5f G3 on dirt.  This shouldn’t be surprising, as Street Boss’s progeny have earned 65% of earnings on dirt and 60% in sprints. Pulpit has been used as the dam-sire for Zensational 5 other times over the past 4 years, and although the cross has not resulted in any stakes winners, 3 of the 5 are allowance winners, and the 7-8f distance has been the most successful.

Expectations: Once Bospityev got away from speed demon horses, she was able to settle down, set the pace, and ease her way to victory.  It’s possible that will continue has she lengthens her race distance even further, as she did not seem to have distance issues at 7f.  But looking at the pedigree, sprinting seems more likely, and 8-8.5f might be the farthest that she can go.  In a race with no other pace, she would be a good pick.  But here, where there are a number of other burners looking for the lead, I worry about possible distance limitations here.

Watch Level: Medium

#11 – Fuzzy Peso (Speightstown x Danzig x Unbridled’s Song) – Owned by jmslocalracers – 8/1

Race Record: 6:1-1-2; $47,660

Race History: Fuzzy Peso broke her maiden at first asking, in a 5.5f MSW in March 2018 (5 of her 12 competitors from that race have gone on to break their maidens since).  After that, she bounced back and forth between URC races.  Her last 3 races, a URC allowance, a NW2L allowance, and a URC stakes, were all in turf routes, where she consistently earned 80-81 SPs, with a strong closing kick in the 2 allowances (finishing 3rd both times), but struggling in the stakes effort.  Her 3 dirt races prior were significantly slower efforts (66-68 SPs), but all were at 5.5-6.5f.  In her 3rd race, a 4 horse NW1x at 5.5f, she showed a little bit of a closing move in finishing 2nd to an eventually stakes placed dirt sprinter.  Fuzzy Peso has improved slightly in each of her last 3 races, and she will try to get a turf to dirt boost in her first dirt route here.

Pedigree: Speightstown, a champion sprinter, was the #15 ranked US sire in 2018, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks at #12, with 70 winners from 115 runners.  Those runners are winning at a superb 22% rate, well above Speightstown’s overall 17.5% win rate.  He largely throws dirt sprinters (71% earnings on dirt, 64% in sprints), though his top 3yos do include a couple of turf runners.  His 2018 sim foals include 7 stakes winners, of which 3 are turf runners and the others have won dirt sprint stakes (though 1 of those is graded placed at 8.5f).   The Speightstown x Danzig cross is most popular usage of Speightstown in the sim, with 31 bred in the last 4 years, including 9 now-3yos.  Of those 31, 4 are stakes winners in dirt sprints (2 of which are graded winners, including the G1-winning Danzig on Holidays), and another one that is stakes winner in turf routes.

Expectation: Fuzzy Peso should be taking her time in this race, sitting back in the pack and hoping that a speed duel breaks out up front.  If it does, she’s got a chance to come on late, but there’s a chance this race could be a touch too long for her pedigree.

Watch Level: Medium

That’s the field of 11 fillies for this NW1x Allowance.  My predictions are: (1) #8 – Tempe Nights, (2) #9 – Seeking Zensation, and (3) #5 – Babelsburg (my longshot pick).  I just think there’s too much pace in here, and especially without route experience, it’s possible that a couple of these frontrunners are actually just sprinters, which would make the pace even hotter.  But who knows?  I’m not a very good handicapper…

Other Races To Watch This Weekend:

This week, some of the best races are on Friday, so I’ve included those here.

1)      Kentucky – Alw NW3L @ 9f (Friday)

2)      Japan – Alw NW3L @ 9f-T

3)      Ontario – Alw NW1x @ 6.5f-T

4)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 8f (Fillies) (Friday)

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 8f

6)      Germany – Alw NW2L @9f-T (Fillies) (Friday)

7)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 8f-T (Friday)

8)      South Africa – LOCAL Alw NW3L @ 8.5f (Fillies)

9)      Germany – Alw NW3L @ 9f (Fillies)

 

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  2 Responses to “Future Stars Series – 11 Fillies Head To Indiana”

  1. Great read, thank you.

  2. Well done, as always. Love the analysis!