SIXTH SENSE

 Posted by at 2:42 pm  Breeding, General
Mar 272019
 

The crop that are now in its sixth year have had 5 crops to race their current 3yo’s being the 5th crop of 3yo’s. They have managed to navigate the trend of always wanting the next new stallion and have either established themselves or have not managed to reach the standard required. To be a top 150 stallion on rankings realistically by now these sires should have at least 10 graded stakes winners.

At present seven sires fit the mould in the Northern Hemisphere three based in USA, three Europe and one Japan. Two of the sires being top class it would be hard to argue either should not be well within the top 25 sires in the game. All of these sires should be within the top 150 at least.

I have also looked at the latest crop reports by seeing how many stakes winners each sire has with their current 3yo’s. This is usefully in terms of trends are they on an upward curve or not. It may also highlight culture issues and or development trends within a sire’s progeny. This is an important factor in campaigning your horses within the sim given the level of wear and tear.

QUALITY ROAD he leads the list by graded stakes winners with 21 on the current all active sires crop report per stakes winner sits 11= (2 graded winners). He is an excellent sire and should be top 25 in the sim. The only negative is his number of overall stakes winners is low compared to graded stakes winners. You would usually expect double the number yet he only has 33. Both the other USA based sires have this profile so it obviously not a location issue. His 3yo runners suggest he is more of a classic sire his runners better as they age which in the sim is a good thing. He is receiving better mares so the results should only get better. An AWD of 7.34f is high for a sire based in the USA. He therefore is an ideal candidate to breed the 8-9f horse which is where the majority of top  class dirt racing takes place. Type 3yo+ 7-9f dirt classic sire.

LOPE DE VEGA He currently has 20 graded stakes winners again top class. His current 3yo’s leave him joint top on number of stakes winners with Galileo and Deep Impact (3 graded winners). That is striking as his horses tend to develop and were not suited by the climate and ground in 2018. It also shows he is already working well with better quality mares which is always good to see. It is also a good indicator his influence on the breed is going to continue to rise. If you add in he had the best filly in the Northern Hemisphere he is obviously seriously on the upgrade. His average winning distance of just over a mile is good news in terms of type of runners he is likely to get and his own race record as a 8-10f horse. As with Quality Road his mares continue to improve and both should continue to do really well and most likely become top 10 sires in the years to come. Type 3yo+ 6-10f turf classic sire.

SIYOUNI checks in next with 14 graded stakes winners this is obviously a big drop from the top two sires who are right up there with the best stallions in the word. Siyouni though has massively exceed expectations as a sire. His current 3yo’s are suffering from the French culture of not running horses at 2. He is currently not in the top 100 but well within on stakes horses expect over the season his position to rise considerably. As would be expected from his pedigree and race record his AWD is less than a mile which is good news in terms of he is doing what is said on the tin. As expected from a son of Pivotal his fillies appear better than his colts and most breeders actively want female offspring. I bet they wish they could he mare like the sim. The other interesting point is his Grandad Polar Falcon is a half brother to the second best sire in France Le Havre also a very good sire of fillies. I am not sure if this a genetics thing in terms of producing fillies or they just work well with the French bloodlines that tend to be slightly different due to the influence of Grey Sovereign . Type 3yo+ 6-9f turf.

SHOWCASING currently has 12 graded stakes winners. He is equal with Quality Road 11 on the current crop listing and has the highest number of graded stakes winners 4. In simple terms a quarter of his total was in his current crop who are the only ones bred to decent mares, he is a stallion on a big upward curve. The quality about to arrive is improving all the time. Outside the top 2 he is the long term best stallion prospect as where he started in terms of expectations gave him the least chance of succeeding. He has a very low AWD so is basically a speed sire and his offspring mature early. If we were looking at him to see any pointers for future stallion prospects are there any signs we could have latched onto in his success. Yes firstly his half brother Camacho is a sire who out performs his mares so this is an area to look at with new stallion recruits have they close relatives who are doing really well. The other area is he was bred by Juddmonte who were also responsible for two of the sires in my last article again look out for sires they have bred entering stud and follow their progress. Showcasing is highly likely to get his rating uplifted next year so for a sire you can pick up for 120bps he offers outstanding value especially for the 2020 breeding season. Type 2yo-4yo mostly sprinters turf.

HARBINGER he was easily the best race horse in terms of ability here. The only one of these I have actually seen and at 4 he was a good looking animal and still improving. Expect his offspring to improve with age. With current 3yo’s he sits joint 27 (3 graded winners). He has the highest average winning distance of all the sires here as would be expected being a 12f grade 1 winner. He is another sire who is receiving better mares so better results should be expected in the future. The hard part to work out is the number of foals to runners which currently sits at over 97% something is obviously wrong with the record of foals or runners. The other option is Japanese horses are insanely sound compared to everywhere else only Showcasing has above 75% runners of the other sires on the list. Type 8f+ later in 3yo season going forward tend to take a lot of racing as most horses do in Japan.

BLAME went to stud with the highest expectations of all of these sires so compared to Quality Road and Lope De Vega has been a flop. He is outside the top 100 with his current 2yo’s on ratings of stakes winners no graded winners. His wins from graded runners have come over 3 crops one crop produced none of the total 11. All his grade 1 winners are fillies none of them outstanding. His offspring seem to improve with age like he did. His AWD is lower than Quality Road which is interesting and probably slightly worrying given his pedigree and race record. At this point he is a sire that could go either way he may see an upturn but that is not a guarantee. In the sim you would not want to be racing them heavily until they turn 4. Type 7-9f mixed surface better 4yo+.

MUNNINGS has had 11 graded stakes winners. His current crop put him equal 25 for stakes wins though no graded stakes winners. The first thing to say with an AWD of 6.3 you pretty much know what you are going to get a 6.5f sprinter. His offspring seem to age well which fits in with his own sires racing records. In many ways he is doing what you expect which if breeding horses is always good news. In the sim and real life he appears to somewhat lack a bit of love. That being said he keeps knocking out figures better than expectations at least in real life which is always a good sign in a stallion. He is in terms of dirt sires is very cheap given his real life ability so obviously if you like dirt horses he is worth using. His physical appearance if passed on should lead to decent dam sire results in the future. Dirt sprints better late season 3yo and onwards.

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