Apr 172019
 

A good sized field of 10 horses have been entered into an allowance race in Denmark with Non-winners of three (other than maiden, claiming, optional or starter) being the conditions to enter into this 6 furlong turf race  As for the weather, it is expected to be chilly with very remote chance of any rain.  A relatively low purse of $19,500 has been offered for the race and here’s a look at the runners:

1  DMR COOL MUNNINGS   22/1-Has been racing in routes at distances all over the radar over past year ranging from a mile to two miles.   Speed numbers have been much better the closer he has raced to the mile distance than the longer routes.   Takes a drop in distance in this one to 6 flanks and could find some favor moving back to sprints.  Needs a race or two to tell if moving to sprints is what he needs.

2  SLOW BURNER  9/1-This is one of several horses in the field that will be dueling on front end to gain the early lead.  He comes into this race after finishing third with a 101 speed, one of his fastest in his career and this came after linking into a early battle but unable to obtain the top spot then tiring late in the race.   All of his three wins have come as a longshot where he was able to get the lead and retain it, which is what he’ll need to do here but I think there are just too many front runners to fend off.

3  VIKING TOURIST  7/1-After a four race stint in dirt races, this guy came back to the turf in February and resumed his winning ways.  During his dirt stint, he was unable to pick up a win but before moving to the dirt he had just won a turf allowance back in October.  The win in February was in the mid-level claimers and he followed that with another grass victory in March in another mid-level claimers.  These wins came with 96 and 100 speeds.  With early front runners in this field, this entrant will sit off the pace and should be in a good position not too far back to make a stinging strike but does take a bounce up to the allowance group which I don’t see as a big negative.

4  DARK IMPROVED  5/1-Returns to turf after an absence of nearly a year.  He’s been racing on the poly and dirt surfaces for his past 7 starts which did not yield a win, but did score speeds in the 93 to 102 range and finishing ITM 4 times.   It’s been a very long time since this guy has set foot for a winning photo with the last one taken over two years ago.   He’s only won twice, both on the turf and transitioning back to the grass makes some sense and perhaps this one will send up signs that he will like this surface much more than others, however, he has been in a long drought and I have my doubts that a win on the grass will come too quickly.

5  DARK BE MY RUNNER   54/1-Steep longshot got beat up badly in last two races which were at distances too long for him to handle (12f and 15.5f).   He maneuvers back to the sprint distance where he has notched a few speeds in the 90-range and does perform better in the shorter distances.   Still, he looks outclassed in this group and has raced off the board in all but one start (which was a 4-horse field) since the start of 2018.   Confidence needs to be lifted and a drop into claimers could show improvement as I don’t forsee it happening in this event.

6  GLORY RUNG  7/1-This front runner had tough time when running in a trio of listed stake races recently.  He was only able to get to the top spot once  when leaving the gate and had his best finish of fourth in this race back in mid-December.  Last month he was dropped into the allowance class and quickly took the lead but was unable to maintain it, finishing the race in second.   He is back to a level where his chances to score are increased but will be in tough fight for early lead with several others.  If he can sit back a bit and stalk the field, he may find the edge he needs.

7  CAPOS ON FIRE  8/1-Moving onto the turf last September saw an immediate improvement in speed numbers with speeds running 92 to 101 in six grass races.  More importantly, he has hit the board four times.   Five of the races were in various claiming levels and he was claimed near the end of March.   After being claimed, he was entered into an early April start where this front runner battled for the lead and tired back to finish fifth in his first grass start in allowance company.   I think the task will be more difficult this week with less than two weeks rest and facing a number of horses in this field that will be fighting it out for the early lead.  I think there maybe is also some lingering wear from the last race which can impact his results this week.

8  MR PASTRY  7/2-Career turf runner looks to add to his ITM count of 10 times in 16 races with three wins.   He has a streak going in which he has finished first or second in five straight allowance races and enters this one after nailing a career best speed of 107.   He looks like he may be in a great position in this race as his style is to sit behind the pace setters in a stalking position.  With many speedsters in this field he’ll just need to find some daylight and that hole between the leaders to shuffle through and this race can be his.

9  TESTING THE MARKET  14/1-Talk about a pattern runner…..This horse alternates his style every other race.  One race, he will settle toward the back of the field and be a late runner.  The next start he will be up near the front and then make his move.   The better of the two styles is the racing near the front where he has won three times.  The style of riding on the back side has caused him to come up short with finishes of 4-6-4 in his last three runs with this style.  Since this style alternates between each race, this race, should the pattern hold up, we should see him on the back side of the field trying to make the late move.  The other style would be preferable in this race but I expect we won’t see that which would lead to a failed effort.

10  REDOUTE’S DAWN  2/1-Favorite in the race tends to prefer to be close to the front in early going and is known to even cut the early fractions.  Since the start of 2018, he has pumped speeds from 94 to 108, hitting that higher number three times.   He has been racing at distances of primarily a mile and has been winless since September 2017.    He drops back to a sprint distance for the first time in a very long time and I’m not sure that will spring improvement.   Two starts this year have shown him losing considerable ground late in the race and finding a way to maintain some stamina will be needed.

 

Viking Tourist is my selection in this race.  Despite moving up to the allowance level, he has shown ability with two wins this season on the grass and moving back to allowance level should not be a problem.

Mr Pastry should be in a good spot to pounce on the speedsters and his form has been excellent of late.

Glory Rung looks to fit better with allowance group then recent stint in listed stakes, gets bite of the pie.

 

Views (158)