May 022019
 

THE BLUEGRASS OAKS

Twenty of the most talented 3 year old fillies will gather here in Kentucky at the famed Twin Spires of Churchill Downs on the first Friday in May for the 21st simulated running of the Grade 1 BLUEGRASS OAKS, which is the first leg of the Filly Triple Crown.  Included in this field are 16 ladies that have already earned her graded winning badge, and 9 of them have won at the highest level previously.  Most of these ladies will be trying to cover the 9 furlong distance for the first time.

 Looking over the race history trying to find something to influence by betting choices, I quickly discovered that Scratch breds have dominated this race throughout the years having won 13 of the 20 previous running’s including the last 5 years. The last mare bred to win was KWIN TIZ in 2013.  Another fact that jumps right off the stat sheet is that the last 6 races have all been won with closing efforts.  The last winner that was remotely close to the early fractions was SECRET SHUFFLER in 2012.  Four out of the first 6 years the race was won gate to wire but that has not happened since TEXAS TORNADO pulled it off back in 2004.

 No master stable has yet been able to capture the Oaks for a second time, but both PLEASNTTAP with HEY THANKS and DEYOTO with AMERICAN DANE have a chance this year to become the first.  While LENNY271 has attempted to improve his chances by having 3 starters in the gates.  DEPUTY MINISTER is the only sire to date that has had 2 foals win the Oaks, but BERNARDINI looks to become the second this year with JYURATODUS.  B. Scott is the only jockey to win the Oaks twice doing it back to back in 2015 and 2016.  BF Abman (2010) and D Givins (2003) will look to join this exclusive club.  The race has only been won once from the rail and that was the inaugural race in 1999, while the race has been won 8 times from post #14 or further, including three times from gate #14.  The other popular starting gate is #6 with 3 wins.

YEAR WINNER OWNER SIRE MARE JOCKEY
2018 8- TUDOR WIT SILVERSUN DEEP IMPACT SCR B. OSTON
2017 4- TREACHEROUSLY II CANYONGATE MALIBU MOON SCR M. JOLLY
2016 15- CURLIN’S GAL  STOCKSWAMI  CURLIN SCR B. SCOTT
2015 15- R U LYING SMUBS DEHERE SCR B. SCOTT
2014  18- FIRST DEGREE BERN  PLEASNTTAP BERNARDINI SCR V. JENNINGS
2013 6- TWIN KIZ GRAPEAPE TIZWAY TULLOCH’S BELLE F. OXON
2012 17- SECRET SHUFFLER PUNTER34 SPEIGHTSTOWN SCR Y. KESTER
2011 3- LANA TURNER SUPER1 STREET CRY GIANTIANO J. CAVES
2010 8- TAYLOR’S STORY DEYOTO DISTORTED HUMOR CAROL OF THE BELLS BF ABMAN
2009 2- CY FLY BANDIT CHEYENNE15 TOUCH GOLD  EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE  L GOODBURN
2008 13- SABBATH POINT AFC  SEEKING THE GOLD  SCR  W. McCLENDON 
2007 10- LOVE NEVER DIE TOPLIGHT SINNDAR ORANGE KELLY P. MUNOZ
2006 14- ARMED WITH MONEY BRUNDLEFLY MILITARY SCR P. HAYNES
2005 14- SWIFT KICK SDMF SUMMER SQUALL SCR OA HAACK
2004 16- TEXAS TORNADO KINGRANCH DEPUTY MINISTER SCR V. GARDNER
2003 6- STORMY MEGAN TALLIN FORTY NINER LOUISIANA STORM D. GIVINS
2002 4- ROSELLA BRYAN24 DEPUTY MINISTER BINGO CAT F. GOSSETT
2001 14- JEREMY’S NIJINSKY ACE SEPTIEME CIEL SCR T. BESLER
2000 6- ALONE THAT BABY UNDERSTELL MEADOWLAKE SCR A. DARLING
1999 1- ALYLUCK THEATRICAL PRIZED SCR S. GARBER

 AND NOW THE POST PARADE FOR THE 21ST BLUEGRASS OAKS:

# 1 – BIG DATA TEST                                           (12-1)                         LENNY271                            J.SANDS

TAPIT x DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM CAT                           WHIRLWIND OF FUN                       6 – 3 – 2 – 1

This Light Grey has never failed to hit the board in her 6 career starts.  She is the first foal produced by the stakes winning mare WHIRLWIND OF FUN.  Last month she won the G2- Mellow Breeze and prior to that she was third in the G3- Lady Bourbon kicking out a 102 SP#.  Can she break the rail jinx in the Oaks?

# 2 – EDENBRIDGE FABRIC                            (9-1)                           THEDUKE88                       J. SELDEN

FARHH x SEEKING THE GOLD x DEPUTY MINISTER              EMPRESS                                         5 – 5 – 0 – 0

How do you argue against a perfect record, this Filly has won every time she goes to the track.  The handicapper has installed her as the ML Co-Favorite.  Last time out busted loose with a 108 SP# while winning the G2- Fantasia Handicap in her only graded race.  The 9th foal from the Graded winning mare EMPRESS.  Look for her to be near the front in the early fractions.

# 3 – UNCLE NO NO                                            (25-1)                         GRAYWOLF6                      C. AMBROSE

UNCLE LINO x NONNO’S BOY x MEADOWLAKE                         LAKE OF BOYS                                12 – 3 – 3 – 0

After starting her career winning 3 out of her first 4 starts has been unable to win since last June in the Thing Of Beauty Dirt Juvenile Fillies.  Closed out last year kicking a 95 SP# running second in the G1- Movieland Stralet.  All 3 starts this year were graded and covered 9 furlong in the G2- Miss Bonnie but faded to 6th.  The 2nd offspring from the stakes winning mare LAKE OF BOYS.

# 4 – DORCHAK’S HUMOR                             (22-1)                         FABMAN                                BF ABMAN

SHARP HUMOR x STORM CAT x KINGMAMBO                           DORCHAK’S CAT                            9 – 3 – 3 – 1

She is the 6th foal from the graded placed mare DORCHAK’S CAT.  Abman will get a second straight ride even though after having the early lead she faded to an eleventh place finish in the G1- lool Oaks which is the only time she did not hit the board on the dirt.  One race back put up a 99 SP# after getting paced in the stretch of the 9f G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers.  Disturbing trend of getting caught late.

# 5 – HONOR YOUR MAKER                          (10-1)                         MTK76                                      M. KELLY

HONOR CODE x EMPIRE MAKER x GONE WEST                     MEETING YOUR MAKER                   7 – 4 – 2 – 0

The third offspring out of the graded stakes winning mare MEETING YOUR MAKER.  Blistered the field a month ago with a 107 SP# winning the G1- California Oaks in a stalking effort.  One back missed the board for the first time in the G1- Los Vinegrette Stakes with M Kelly in the saddle for both of these races.  My gut feeling is she will be in the mix here.

# 6 – NADERA                                                     (15-1)                           3DDDZ                                      D. GIVINS

NYQUIST x STORM CAT x ALYDAR                                                  SCRATCHBRED                                  8 – 4 – 0 – 1

Won the first 4 races in her career including the G2-Stoker Handicap and the G1- Dell Computers Debutante as a juvenile.  First race this season finished third in the G1- Los Vinegrette Stakes with D Givins in the irons kicking out a 101 SP#.  Last out faded to 8th in the G1- lool Oaks after being at the early pace.  Needs a return to Juvy form to contest here.

# 7 – NOTHING BUT EVIL                             (11-1)                            LENNY271                                J. HERNANDEZ

ARROGATE x DUBAWI x SEATTLE SLEW                                    NOTHING BUT RAGE                        8 – 4 – 3 – 0     

The Light Grey is based on the graded stakes winning He-mare NOTHING BUT RAGE.  Last race out she kicked a 103 SP # while running 4th in her only trip not in the money.  One before that she won the G3- SilverBulletBeer.  In 2019 season opener covered 9.5 furlongs caught for second in the Coldstone Dirt Filly Route.  Trying to become the first winner from a he-mare breeding.

# 8 – RETRO SPECTRE                                   (36-1)                             TEES                                        A. JOLLY

CARAVAGGIO x SEA THE STARS x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY          DOWNING DRAGONS                      11 – 3 – 4 – 0

Has started this campaign in California making 2 short sprint starts (4.5 furlongs) one on the turf and one on the poly track.  Interesting strategy which may have caused the handicapper to make her the longest shot in the field.  Is based on the he-mare DOWNING DRAGONS.  Has a top SP # of 92 in the G1- Movieland Starlet running 7th.  As a juvenile won the G1- Walnut Tree Stakes in September.  This one could be a total wild card here.

# 9 – PAYTAH                                                    (26-1)                    JOCKEYROBLEDO                     D. WILLIAMS

TAP TO THE STREET x TAPIT x MORE THAN READY                  TAPPIN HARD                                12 – 5 – 2 – 1

This Roan filly has been off since a disappointing 12th place finish in the G1- Vermont Is 4 Lovers.  2 races prior to close out juvy career put up a 98 SP # while winning the Broad Mecke Dirt Juvenile Fillies both of these races were ridden by D Williams.  Was the 4th foal produced by the mare TAPPIN HARD.  Has failed to hit the board in 2 straight.  Has never really challenged for the early lead choosing to come from off the pace.

#10 – BODE GIRL                                           (24-1)                           COOMER3                               N. ARMSTRONG

CREATOR x BODEMEISTER x PRIVATE ACCOUNT                       DEBEEMEISTER                            8 – 3 – 3 – 0

The Light Grey was the first offspring produced out of the mare DEBEEMEISTER.  Started 2019 winning a NW3L allowance while popping her best SP# of 101 in an out front effort.  Last out was 5th as she just did not have enough to get there in the G2- Louisiana Oaks.  Closed out juvy season with a 2nd in the G1- Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies on a sloopy track with Armstrong holding the reins.

#11 – HEY THANKS                                      (14-1)                           PLEASNTTAP                          K. PROEHL

CONGRATS x GRAYDAR x CARSON CITY                                    SONAR YAFEELNLUCKY                 7 – 4 – 1 – 0

She is the first foal from the graded stakes winning mare SONAR YAFEELNLUCKY.  Last time out faded in the G1- lool Oaks finishing in 7th which ended his 2019 2 race win streak.  Prior race in the G1- Vermont Is 4 Lovers pumped out a 103 SP# while staying with the early pace.  Has shown a willingness to go with the early speed right out of the gate.

#12 – ROCKFEST BANDIT                         (15-1)                             MURRAY1                                K. MURRAY

ZENSATIONAL x STORM CAT x A.P. INDY                                 BIGGER N BETTER                             10 – 5 – 1 – 2

K. Murray has made 5 prior rides including a win in the G1- Frickazee Stakes in October and both of her starts this year which were 2 fifth place runs in the G1- lool Oaks where she kicked out a 101 SP# and the G1- Vermont Is 4 Lovers.  The Light Grey is the 8th foal from the stakes placed mare BIGGER N BETTER.  Will not challenge for the early lead but won’t drift too far behind it either.

#13 – CONTOUR ON FLEEK                      (17-1)                   AWKWARDANDCHAI                  J. JOHNSON

FORESTRY x PREACHINATTHEBAR x SEEKING THE GOLD       DROWNINATTHEBAR               10 – 5 – 1 – 1

The Light Grey is based on the stakes winning he-mare DROWNINATTHEBAR.  Closed hard last time out in the G2- Fantasia Handicap to finish 3rd while banging out a 104 SP#.  A 2 time graded winner as a juvenile in the G1- Darley and the G2- Iron Deck.  Has shown no problem with being in the second half of the pack at the midway point in a race.   

#14 – AMERICAN DANE                             (9-1)                                 DEYOTO                                  W. DESANTIS

AMERICAN PHAROAH x MORE THAN READY x DANEHILL             STREET DANE                          8 – 6 – 0 – 1

Talented deep late closer that has 6 wins in 7 career starts has been tabbed as the ML Co-Favorite by the handicapper.  She is the 3rd foal from the graded placed mare STREET DANE.  Last time out blazed a 109 SP# winning the G1- lool Oaks and her late chargecame up short in the G1- Vermont is 4 Lovers finishing 4th both will W Desantis in the irons.  If she was a scratchbred I would have to say she was a lock, but still my first choice.

#15 – TAPITMORE                                     (19-1)                             RICKYBOBBY                             L. RADZINSKI

TAPITURE x MT LIVERMORE x SUNDAY SILENCE                       SCRATCHBRED                               9 – 4 – 2 – 0 

The 2 year old Equine Of The Year from last year with 2 wins and a 2nd in 3 G1 starts.  She has found the going a little tougher this season having finished no better than 8th in either start, but did top out her SP# with a 99 in the G1- California Oaks last race with L Radzinski in the saddle who also won the G1- Breeder Bowl Juvenile Fillies.  Will need some of that 2 year old magic.

#16 – BARBARA BITES BACK              (13-1)                               JAKEMATT                                H. DESITTER

MEDAGLIA D’ORO x CAPOTE x FORTY NINER                                SCRATCHBRED                             8 – 4 – 1 – 2

The Roan scratch bred has only failed to finish in the money once in her career.  This fast stalker was just clipped last time out in the G1- lool Oaks posting a robust 107 SP#.  Prior race won the G3- Davola Dane South with a superb closing effort.  I would definitely keep her in mind at the betting windows.

#17 – RAGTIME MELODY                      (17-1)                               LSUMARK                                   S. BLOOD

UNION RAGS x BERNARDINI x FORTY NINER                            STARLITE MELODY                        9 – 5 – 0 – 0

Last time out finished 11th in the G1- California Oaks not able to muster a late run like she had in winning the G2- Louisiana Oaks with a 100 SP#.  The second foal produced out of the graded stakes winning mare STARLITE MELODY.  Also won the G2- Golden Red Stakes as a juvenile.  Has a good pedigree for this race and I would keep a watch on her race day.

#18 – REVITALIZATION                       (14-1)                                BIGRICK                                    M. CARRUTHERS

CAIRO PRINCE x FREUD x FORTY NINER                                     CUMBERLAND                                  9 – 5 – 2 – 1

Last time out was nipped in the stretch in the G1- California Oaks ending her 4 race winning streak, but posted a 106 SP# while finishing 2nd.  This hard charger out of the gates will most likely try and head to the front.  She is the 9th offspring from the graded stakes winning mare CUMBERLAND.  Has the speed and the talent to be involved down the stretch.

#19 – FEAR ME MOST                            (11-1)                                QWIKVETT                                  Q. VETT

AWESOME AGAIN x EMPIRE MAKER x MR. PROSPECTOR            PORN STARR                               7 – 3 – 1 – 2

Last time out she finished 3rd in the G1- lool Oaks kicking out a 105 SP# with Vett holding the reins.  Was also 3rd in the G1- Vermont Is 4 Lovers earlier this year.  Vett is 2 for 2 hitting the board but hasn’t won on this filly.  She is the 6th foAL from the graded stakes winning mare PORN STARR.  Will hold back and not push the early speed, has shown a good closing kical

#20 – JYURATODUS                              (18-1)                               LENNY271                                     L. BRENNER

BERNARDINI x KITTEN’S JOY x DEPUTY MINISTER                  TURKMENISTAN                              8 – 5 – 0 – 0

A disappointing effort last time out finishing last in the G1- California Oaks which ended her 4 race winning streak.  rior to that had excellent closing rides to win the G2- Miss Bonnie and the Espresso Ditalia Dirt Filly Route where she powered out a 100 SP#.  She is the second offspring out of the stakes winning mare TURKMENISTAN.  I will throw out her last and give her a shot to hit the board here.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL……………………….JB3

                   

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  4 Responses to “THE G1- BLUEGRASS OAKS (FIRST LEG OF THE FILLY TRIPLE CROWN)”

  1. Super job Joel, especially with the 20 horse field.

  2. Nice job. Enjoyed reading this.

  3. Wow great going JB!!!!

    Love the historical research. You put a lot of work into this and it shows.

  4. Thanks