May 102019
 

Italy - The Italian Derby (G1)
Saturday, May 11, 2019 — 3:00:00 PM EST
11 Furlongs Firm Turf - Restricted to 3 Year Olds
Purse : $750,000

A full card of 14 colts and geldings will meet in Italy on Saturday for the Italian Derby.

Front Runners

PP: 2 – OLDDAY GONE – 58/1

OLDDAY GONE, sired by GLOBAL ONE (AUS) (DIXIE UNION), is running for the rosecroft stable.  OLDDAY GONE’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 8F turf where OLDDAY GONE finished 4th posting a speed of 82.  Based on recent performances OLDDAY GONE is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

PP: 6 – K’S SANCHO PANZA – 5/1

K’S SANCHO PANZA, sired by TAPIT (DISTORTED HUMOR), is running for the pompeya stable.  K’S SANCHO PANZA’s last run was the ‘Hopefully Rattle Turf Route’, a 9.5F turf where K’S SANCHO PANZA finished 1st posting a speed of 106.  Based on recent performances K’S SANCHO PANZA is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

Stalkers

PP: 7 – FIONIA WISSEN – 9/1

FIONIA WISSEN, sired by WIESENPFAD (FR) (RODERIC O’CONNOR (IRE)), is running for the kimstar4 stable.  FIONIA WISSEN’s last run was the ‘Shadow Creek Turf Route’, a 9F turf where FIONIA WISSEN finished 1st posting a speed of 104.  Based on recent performances FIONIA WISSEN has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

PP: 10 – ELEPHANT WALK – 26/1

ELEPHANT WALK, sired by ANIMAL KINGDOM (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY), is running for the twinoaks stable.  ELEPHANT WALK’s last run was the ‘Manatee Classic’ G2, a 10F turf where ELEPHANT WALK finished 13th posting a speed of 80.  Based on recent performances ELEPHANT WALK is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

Closers

PP: 1 – ZONEING IN – 8/1

ZONEING IN, sired by TO THE WORLD (JPN) (GENERAL QUARTERS), is running for the lostkey13 stable.  ZONEING IN’s last run was the ‘La Grooms Wood Turf Route’, a 9F turf where ZONEING IN finished 3rd posting a speed of 96.  Based on recent performances ZONEING IN will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 3 – MARLOW – 20/1

MARLOW, sired by EXCEED AND EXCEL (KRIS S.), is running for the silversun6 stable.  MARLOW’s last run was the ‘No Allies’ G2, a 10.5F turf where MARLOW finished 13th posting a speed of 80.  Based on recent performances MARLOW is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

PP: 4 – TETE GYLLIATH – 9/1

TETE GYLLIATH, sired by HEART’S CRY (JPN) (DUTCH ART (GB)), is running for the sabbath stable.  TETE GYLLIATH’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9.5F turf where TETE GYLLIATH finished 1st posting a speed of 97.  Based on recent performances TETE GYLLIATH will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 8 – TETE GORGOZ – 12/1

TETE GORGOZ, sired by HEART’S CRY (JPN) (KENDARGENT), is running for the kartago stable.  TETE GORGOZ’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9.5F turf where TETE GORGOZ finished 1st posting a speed of 92.  Based on recent performances TETE GORGOZ will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 9 – KING THIRTY ONE – 7/1

KING THIRTY ONE, sired by KING KAMEHAMEHA (ESKENDEREYA), is running for the jazz4ever stable.  KING THIRTY ONE’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9.5F turf where KING THIRTY ONE finished 1st posting a speed of 102.  Based on recent performances KING THIRTY ONE has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

PP: 12 – DAMOS CAT – 14/1

DAMOS CAT, sired by VADAMOS (FR) (DARCI BRAHMA (NZ)), is running for the deeprock30 stable.  DAMOS CAT’s last run was the ‘Doctor Is In Memorial’ G3, a 8.5F turf where DAMOS CAT finished 12th posting a speed of 87.  Based on recent performances DAMOS CAT will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 14 – KNIGHT MEZTLI – 17/1

KNIGHT MEZTLI, sired by DECORATED KNIGHT (DUKE OF MARMALADE), is running for the anewstar stable.  KNIGHT MEZTLI’s last run was the ‘A. P. Poll Turf Special’, a 9.5F turf where KNIGHT MEZTLI finished 4th posting a speed of 98.  Based on recent performances KNIGHT MEZTLI will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

Deep Closers

PP: 5 – CAFE FLIRT – 12/1

CAFE FLIRT, sired by LE HAVRE (IRE) (GALILEO (IRE)), is running for the eminc4 stable.  CAFE FLIRT’s last run was the ‘No Allies’ G2, a 10.5F turf where CAFE FLIRT finished 2nd posting a speed of 101.  Based on recent performances CAFE FLIRT has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

PP: 11 – ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST – 5/1

ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST, sired by LONHRO (RAVEN’S PASS), is running for the chorwon stable.  ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST’s last run was the ‘Japanese 2000 Guineas’ G1, a 10F turf where ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST finished 4th posting a speed of 98.  Based on recent performances ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

PP: 13 – PRIVATE IMPULSE – 6/1

PRIVATE IMPULSE, sired by DEEP IMPACT (GALILEO (IRE)), is running for the flagdown4 stable.  PRIVATE IMPULSE’s last run was the ‘Japanese 2000 Guineas’ G1, a 10F turf where PRIVATE IMPULSE finished 3rd posting a speed of 100.  Based on recent performances PRIVATE IMPULSE will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

Analysis of Field

Of the two Front Runners OLDDAY GONE and K’S SANCHO PANZA, K’S SANCHO PANZA projects to be the heavy favourite to emerge with the lead out of the gates.  K’S SANCHO PANZA has put together back to back victories where he has taken the field wire to wire, and with having posted the highest SP figure in this field (106.2) in his last race there is definitely a solid chance that he will emerge victorious again as long as he can handle the additional distance.

Stalking right behind the lead will be FIONIA WISSEN and ELEPHANT WALK, with both looking to take the lead as they turn down the stretch.  FIONIA WISSEN is most likely to emerge as the top challenger from the stalkers, and will look to stick right on the tail of the leaders.  He has shown the ability to take the lead when there isn’t a clear front runner, but with K’S SANCHO PANZA in the field FIONIA WISSEN likely won’t put up to much of a fight for the lead until they turn down the stretch.  FIONIA WISSEN put up a career best speed (104.2) in his last race and will need to keep in top form if he is to have a chance to push into the lead.

There will be a party going on off the pace as ten of the fourteen horses in this field will be looking to sit off the pace and make their push down the stretch with hopes of catching the leaders by the wire.

ZONEING IN, MARLOW, TETE GYLLIATH, TETE GORGOZ, KING THIRTY ONE, DAMOS CAT, and KNIGHT MEZTLI should form the first pack of closers, and will look to position themselves so that they have the room to make their push into the stretch.  Of this group KING THIRTY ONE is the only one to have put up triple digit speed figures with a 102.6 speed in his last outing, however he is jumping straight from the NW2L allowance class up to Graded Stakes, and will be in for a tougher race than he’s used to.

Pulling up the rear are Deep Closers: CAFE FLIRT, ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST, and PRIVATE IMPULSE.  All three colts have posted triple digit speed figures and are coming off top four finishes in Graded Stakes where they ran out of room closing down the stretch.  All three will come in with a solid chance to make their move to the front, and there would be no shock to see either of them come away victorious.  However they will be faced with the challenge of making their way through the traffic (aka Party in the Back) if they are to emerge from the closers to challenge down the stretch.

BeerKeg’s Picks

Favourite – K’S SANCHO PANZA (5/1)
Wild Card  – CAFE FLIRT (12/1)

Thanks for reading, comment below with your picks!

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  2 Responses to “The Italian Derby – Business in the Front, Party in the Back”

  1. Nice ‘capping there… Your Wild Card won, and your favorite was third. They sandwiched my KING THIRTY ONE. :)

  2. Business in the front, party in the back? I’ll have to mullet over… :)