EWC’s Middle Jewel

 Posted by at 10:00 pm  Previews
May 162019
 

The second leg of the first ever series of triple crown races sponsored by the EWC residency, and for residency members only, is rapidly approaching.   Several of the horses in the first round will be coming back for this second round and there are a set of other horses entered looking to be spoilers.   This race shifts to the Maryland track with the EWC Derby occurring in Ohio.   The Ohio race was run on an off track (labeled Good) and this race has a 90% chance of precipitation and it will most likely be awful conditions.   Here’s our field:

 

NOT IN CHARGE owned by Neonshadow (Post 4   13/1)

This is the horse that the bettting crowd doubted in the EWC Derby.  In that 20 horse field, he had the 6th highest odds at 21/1.    He was a bit lazy leaving the gate, dropping into the 14th position by the first call.  He lost 3 lengths heading to the halve, but somehow moved up three spots to 11th as other horses started to toss in their hats.   As the third call approached, Not in Charge started to make a charge and had advanced from 9 off the lead and sliced that in half to just a bit over 4 lengths and was now running fourth.   He just kept flying as he ran through the stretch, making his way to the lead in the final furlong and winning by 3/4 of a length.   A solid career best speed of 102 was recorded and he earned his 3rd career win in 8 starts.   He is the live one for the residency’s triple crown and wears the target that all other runners are looking to score a bullseye upon.  The wet track may have helped him in the Deerby effort and it looks like he’ll get it again.   The second leg could be all his.

MALIBU WEEKEND owned by Pmill3 (Post 2   7/1)

The front runner in the EWC Derby is back and is hopeful the speed will last this time.   He had no problem in the Derby in taking command of the field, quickly breaking out of gate number 4 and benefited greatly with the inside post.  By the first call, he had scored just over a three length solid lead on the field.   He paced himself well to the half, extending the lead by another stride.   Spinning around the turn, the field was advancing and the lead narrowed to about two lengths.  Several horses caught up and ran past Malibu Weekend and the speedster ran out of fuel, finishing sixth a good eight strides off the winner.   The race was a tough one and the foes seemed to be a bit much for this guy.  He’ll probably fire off to the front again in the Jewel, but I’m afraid the end results may be the same.

MISS EQUADOR owned by Kashbarn  (Post 11   5/1)

The 9/1 third choice in the EWC Derby was off her game as she faced the boys for the first time.  She usually starts races on the tail end of the field but this time she got out quicker and was positioned a mid-field 10th out of the 20 runners by the first call.  She moved up a slot by the half but this gal who loves to blow things up in the last quarter just fizzled.  She ran flat in the second half of the race and finished fifth to get some minor purse spoils but was 8 off the winner and was not a threat.  She’s back and the poor outing could have been the early positioning closer to the front or the weather conditions.  Could also be she wasn’t in the best of shape for this one.   She’s back for another try and not sold that improvement is in the cards as the track will most likely be wet again.

READY FOR SEATTLE owned by Sjmeola  (Post 9   6/1)

After showing success in a series of 5 listed stake/grade races, and scoring a record of 2-1-2, Ready for Seattle entered into the EWC Derby and was anything but ‘ready’.  A typical slow start came his way in the Derby as he ran in the 18th spot in the first quarter of the race.   Not much changed until the second half of the race when he moved up to the ninth spot by the three-quarter pole, cutting his field position in half but not picking up any meaningful ground as he was 9 lengths off the leader.   He would finish the race nine back at the wire and conclude in the 7th position.   A disappointing outing for a runner that had the stake experience heading into the residency Derby.  There is a likelihood the fowl weather effected his run and the weather conditions don’t look any better for this race.

BRIDLEDINI owned by Millerfarm  (Post 3   6/1)

This filly faced the boys for the first time in the EWC Derby and the 14/1 runner left all but the winning male behind her.  Sure, there were 20 horses in the field with 5 being fillies.  That means the other 15 were males and she beat 14 of them as she finished second behind winning Not in Charge.   She was a well positioned 9th in the early running and was able to move up two slots by the half.  She took off from there picking up 5 strides on the leader and sitting third as the field worked its way down the stretch.   She was able to briefly obtain the lead and was overtaken by the winner in the final furlong.   The distance is a tad shorter this time and this girl has revenge in her blood.  She cannot be ruled out.

BLOFELD’S SONG owned by Cuetec  (Post 10   9/1)

A colt who had hit the board in all of his 6 starts saw this streak come to a conclusion in the EWC Derby.   Running more than 6 flanks for the first time he was spotted a decent position of fifth for most of the race.   He sat there until the final quarter of the race and offered nothing when asked to make a move coming off the final turn.  Blofeld’s Song shuffled back and finished eighth in the race and was 10 strides off the winner.  The weather may have played a roll in the race as it was off-track conditions which is expected to reoccur in the EWC Jewel.  I think it may be more related to the distance being more than what he is comfortable with.  The Jewel has slightly less distance but not that big of a change (1/2-furlong) to have a meaningful impact.

TSR’S SUPERNOVA owned by Tstack (Post 1   13/1)

Skipping the EWC Dereby, this daughter of Tapit comes out of game mare TSR’s Ready Star who is a G3 winner.  Supernova is one of two entrants in the field with 14 starts and has a record of 4-3-2.   She has raced in 8 listed/graded races and has hit the board three times with a pair of seconds and a third.   Otherwise he has been on the board in each non-stake race with a record of 4-1-1.  Her last start was in the G2 Manhattan District Stakes at 7 furlongs where she was the front runner and a good portion of the field passed by her in the stretch and she finished 6th but notched a career best speed of 96.   This will be her first start of more than a mile, of which she raced only once at a mile and had a mid-filed placing.   Stake racing has been a tough class for her to compete within and this time it will be even tougher as she deals with a field that includes the men. tough.

LOGIC OF ILLOGIC owned by Sjmeola  (Post 12   10/1)

This gelding is one of the lightest raced horses in the field with only five career starts.   He’s a scratch bred out of the breeding line of Classic Empire x Halo x Northern Dancer.   His career started this past November where he was beat by a neck in his debut followed by a third in his second start, tiring after cutting the fractions.   The maiden was broken in his third start where he sat back off the front end and was able to move forward in the stretch to gain the win.   Moving up to a mile, his speed exploded to 100 in March as he brought home his second straight victory.   His last start was with NW3L in allowance company and sat 6th throughout the race.   He moves into his first stake race and he has potential of scoring a win if he can replicate that fine run in March.

LAMELLAR owned by Atthewire  (Post 6   9/1)

This colt returns to the residency’s triple crown series of races and is hopeful of leaving with a win.  In April, he pulled off a second in an allowance NW2L with a career best speed of 97.   That speed number was replicated in the EWC Derby.  Lamellar found a decent spot running some three lengths off the pace setter by the first call in the second spot.  He held this position through the second and third calls.   He did move past the front runner in the stretch, but that came after two closers had already passed by him.  Lamellar finished third in the Derby, five lengths off of winning Not in Charge and second place finisher Bridledini.  I expect he will put in another fine effort but whether or not he can hold off the two horses that beat him may be a brutal task.

FLAGSHIP KILLER owned by Marky4577   (Post 7   13/1)

The son of Uncle Mo skipped the EWC Derby and makes his stake debut in the residency’s Jewel race.  He’s a scratchbred that carries Capote x Forty Niner on the tail end of the breeding line.  He has a record of 1-1-2 in six starts with the last two at a distance of a mile.   In March he finished second in a seven horse field with a 93 speed and almost two back from the winner.  Improvement in his last start in mid-April where he faced a full field of 14 with a speed bump up to 98  and finishing third by pretty much the same distance as the March race.   His speed numbers have enhanced in every start and I have a feeling he desires a bit more distance.  Flagship Killer gets just that in this race and if he finds a liking to a track that is probably going to be wet, he could steal this race.

AWKWARD BEGINNINGS owned by Sjmeola   (Post 5   10/1)

A consistent horse in listed stake races, Awkward Beginnings has a stake record of 2-3-0 in six races.  All five of his first/second finishes came in turf races.  The only off the board race came in the EWC Derby, his first dirt race.  He generally likes to be near the lead in the early running and got off sharply in the Derby racing in the third spot by the first call.  But things turned awkward very quickly as he steadily lost ground as the race progressed.  Moving around the final turn, he had faltered back to 13th and the stretch run provided no help as he finished 18th.   This was his first race going more than 6.5 furlongs so the distance probably had an impact but more likely the switch to the dirt was not agreeable, especially the wet conditions.  Nothing really changes for this race and the outcome may likely support the turf as a better place to run.

HARD RUN RONNIE owned by Jm23stable  (Post 13   22/1)

A big undertaken awaits this colt who is sired by Hard Spun.  Nailed tothe Cross is the 5 time winning mare that is mother to this entrant and she has nine children with on listed stake winner.  Hard Run Ronnie has 14 trips over the track with a record of 3-5-2.  It took 7 starts for him to break his maiden and it occurred when he dropped out of MSW to maiden claimers last November.  Since then, he has raced exclusively in the claiming class and is now onto his fourth owner.   He has finished on the board in each of his races within the claiming class and for Jm23stable, has a win and a third in the two starts for his new owner, spitting out a career best speed of 90 in his last run at 7 furlongs.  He takes a huge jump up into the stake class and his speed numbers will be hard pressed to reach that of his foes.  He’s raced twice at a mile back in his maiden days and lost ground in both of those late in the race.  Things not adding up well for this race.

BLUEKIN owned by Denovo   (Post 8  26/1)

A filly who is seeking to break her maiden came up empty in her try in the EWC Derby where she entered the gate at 44/1.   She left the chute very slow and dropped to the 19th spot.  Despite moving up two spots by the third call, she had drifted back to some 14 lengths off the leader.   She managed to finish 13th and 17 strides off the winner.  Picking up positions is a good thing but not gaining on the leader is even worse.   This was a disappointment as she marked a speed of 84 which was a dropoff from the 92 and second place finish from her start leading into the Derby event.   She’s back for the EWC Jewel event and will be running the 9.5 furlongs where she notched her best speed.  It still looks doubtful that the maiden will break in this race but there is a chance she can show some improvement off the Derby race.

PROMISE DA DO owned by Crawf68  (Post 14   40/1)

A maiden colt who is sired by Noble’s Promise with 6 time winning Zippy  Da Do Da as the game mare.  This is one of six children out of the mare and two have become allowance winners.   Promise Da Do has finished twice in his six races with the first coming on the dirt in March, 2018 in his debut race.  He’s been off the board ever since then until his last start, which was a year after his debut in March 2019 where he dug in hard and made up several lengths in the last quarter of the 9 furlong race to land in third and bumped his speed up to 92, a career best.   This came when he traded the dirt for the turf surface.   Promise does look like he will favor longer distance and his speed numbers have been growing since taking on distance of a mile or more.  He moves back to the dirt and I think improvement will follow.  Still, he leaps into the stake contest without breaking the maiden which looks to be a hinderance.

 

I believe the oddmakers got it wrong in this race in making Miss Equador the favorite.   They ignored Not In Charge’s fine effort on the off-track and 8/1 odds are appealing and he will be my top choice and will be on his way to the residency triple crown.

Brideldini had a strong effort in the EWC Derby finishing behind my top choice and she will be right back with another good run.

Logic of Illogic has improved considerably when moving up to the mile distance.  He adds on more distance and could add more improvement.  Potential upsetter.

 

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  2 Responses to “EWC’s Middle Jewel”

  1. Ditto — thanks Ken :)

  2. Great Job Ken. Loved the read,

    SJ