May 242019
 

Japan - The Japanese Derby (G1)
Sunday, May 26, 2019 — 3:00:00 PM EST
12 Furlongs Firm Turf - Restricted to 3 Year Olds
Purse : $3,000,000

Front Runners

PP: 4 – SUDACHI – 7/1

SUDACHI, sired by DEEP IMPACT (STORM CAT), is running for the gleneaglesmares stable.  SUDACHI’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9F turf where SUDACHI finished 1st posting a speed of 103.  Based on recent performances SUDACHI has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

PP: 5 – ROSSELOT – 8/1

ROSSELOT, sired by CHARM SPIRIT (IRE) (RAHY), is running for the baeza stable.  ROSSELOT’s last run was the ‘Desert Sky Turf Route’, a 10F turf where ROSSELOT finished 2nd posting a speed of 98.  Based on recent performances ROSSELOT will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

 

Stalker

PP: 2 – DE LORIEN – 29/1

DE LORIEN, sired by ADELAIDE (IRE) (DEEP IMPACT), is running for the wyndaway8 stable.  DE LORIEN’s last run was the ‘Bluegrass Derby Trial Stakes’ (G3), a 8F dirt where DE LORIEN finished 14th posting a speed of 86.  Based on recent performances DE LORIEN is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

 

Closers

PP: 1 – GALILEO STRIKES – 9/1

GALILEO STRIKES, sired by GALILEO (IRE) (SIYOUNI), is running for the atw5 stable.  GALILEO STRIKES’s last run was the ‘Hogwarts’ (G2), a 11F turf where GALILEO STRIKES finished 6th posting a speed of 96.  Based on recent performances GALILEO STRIKES has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

PP: 3 – JETS CREEK – 21/1

JETS CREEK, sired by JET AWAY (GB) (MR. GREELEY), is running for the deeprock40 stable.  JETS CREEK’s last run was the ‘Fields Of Thunder Turf Sprint’, a 7F turf where JETS CREEK finished 6th posting a speed of 90.  Based on recent performances JETS CREEK is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

PP: 9 – DERBY FEVER CLUB – 11/1

DERBY FEVER CLUB, sired by CAMELOT (GB) (SEA THE STARS), is running for the jbcri51 stable.  DERBY FEVER CLUB’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9.5F turf where DERBY FEVER CLUB finished 1st posting a speed of 100.  Based on recent performances DERBY FEVER CLUB will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 10 – TANNACHY – 8/1

TANNACHY, sired by DOWSING (NATHANIEL), is running for the ormax stable.  TANNACHY’s last run was the ‘Vase Of Chester’ (G3), a 13F turf where TANNACHY finished 1st posting a speed of 100.  Based on recent performances TANNACHY will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 11 – URBAN OUTBACK – 15/1

URBAN OUTBACK, sired by AUSTRALIA (SEA THE STARS), is running for the phillipj4 stable.  URBAN OUTBACK’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9.5F turf where URBAN OUTBACK finished 1st posting a speed of 98.  Based on recent performances URBAN OUTBACK will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 12 – URSINE MAMMAL – 8/1

URSINE MAMMAL, sired by DAWN APPROACH (IRE) (STAY GOLD (JPN)), is running for the bikeboy stable.  URSINE MAMMAL’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9F turf where URSINE MAMMAL finished 2nd posting a speed of 99.  Based on recent performances URSINE MAMMAL will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 13 – HORN AND IVORY – 5/1

HORN AND IVORY, sired by SHAMARDAL (SADLER’S WELLS), is running for the plano stable.  HORN AND IVORY’s last run was the ‘Desert Sky Turf Route’, a 10F turf where HORN AND IVORY finished 1st posting a speed of 102.  Based on recent performances HORN AND IVORY has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

 

Deep Closers

PP: 6 – NAKAHAMA – 10/1

NAKAHAMA, sired by DURAMENTE (JPN) (CAERLEON), is running for the alibilane20 stable.  NAKAHAMA’s last run was a conditional allowance, a 9.5F turf where NAKAHAMA finished 1st posting a speed of 104.  Based on recent performances NAKAHAMA is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

PP: 7 – GOLDEN STAR PRESS – 11/1

GOLDEN STAR PRESS, sired by GOLDEN HORN (GB) (POINT OF ENTRY), is running for the njpw2 stable.  GOLDEN STAR PRESS’s last run was the ‘South African Derby’ (G2), a 12F turf where GOLDEN STAR PRESS finished 5th posting a speed of 93.  Based on recent performances GOLDEN STAR PRESS is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

PP: 8 – IRONICUS BANDIT – 11/1

IRONICUS BANDIT, sired by IRONICUS (UNBRIDLED’S SONG), is running for the win4fun stable.  IRONICUS BANDIT’s last run was the ‘South African Derby’ (G2), a 12F turf where IRONICUS BANDIT finished 1st posting a speed of 100.  Based on recent performances IRONICUS BANDIT will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

PP: 14 – RAZE REDEYE – 14/1

RAZE REDEYE, sired by ADLERFLUG (STORMY ATLANTIC), is running for the harasauxerre2 stable.  RAZE REDEYE’s last run was the ‘Griffen’ (G2), a 10F turf where RAZE REDEYE finished 3rd posting a speed of 104.  Based on recent performances RAZE REDEYE is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

 

Analysis of Field

Out of the gates SUDACHI and ROSSELOT should find themselves fighting for the lead.  ROSSELOT has more stakes experience, however SUDACHI has put down some impressive speed figures in his last two allowance runs after stretching out to 9F peaking at 103 SP in his last allowance victory.  The big questions for these front runners will be whether they can hold out for the additional distance with today’s race at 12F.

DE LORIEN will be looking to tail just behind the leaders, making his play for the lead coming into the stretch.  Based on past performance DE LORIEN appears to be out of his league in this field, however DE LORIEN’s pedigree suggests the additional distance might just let him take a jump to the next level.

The final eleven runners in the field will be be sitting off the pace out of the gates looking to close down the stretch.

GALILEO STRIKES, JETS CREEK, DERBY FEVER CLUB, TANNACHY, URBAN OUTBACK, URSINE MAMMAL, and HORN AND IVORY will look to make the first group of closers.  Of this group, TANNACHY is the only closer who has run at this distance having posted a 100 speed figure in a graded victory in his last race.

NAKAHAMA, GOLDEN STAR PRESS, IRONICUS BANDIT, and RAZE REDEYE will sit well back from the leaders and looks to come in hard as deep closers.  Of the deep closers NAKAHAMA and RAZE REDEYE both put up the highest speed figures in their last races, however they will be stretching out with two-three additional furlongs and will be tested to see if they have the stamina to still close hard with the extra distance.  On the other hand IRONICUS BANDIT is coming off a 12 furlong graded victory, he might not have the highest posted speed figures, but he has the highest at this distance.

There are lots of unknowns in this race as most are pushing to their longest career distance, however TANNACHY and IRONICUS BANDIT should both be expected to make strong pushes down the stretch along with those who will prove they can handle the distance.

BeerKeg’s Picks

Favourite – TANNACHY  (8/1)
Wild Card  – RAZE REDEYE  (14/1)

Thanks for reading, comment below with your picks!

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  6 Responses to “The Japanese Derby – Field of Closers”

  1. My gamble worked out and it didn’t. I knew that entering this race on a quick turnaround for Raze Redeye wasn’t ideal, but I also knew the field was wide open, I was fairly certain he would like 12 furlongs and I mean, how many $3,000,000 purses do you get to run at? Ran a big number, was good enough for 2nd and a huge check but came back needing rest which likely knocks him out of the rest of the classic season. Zeus did keep Raze much closer to the pace today which I think I was a smart move considering all the closers in the field.

    • Your right it was a open race for a $3,000,000 purse. I only entered because I could & like you I figured my horse could run the distance. You seem to know how to place & win races. Good luck to your future races.

  2. Thanks for the preview! This is historically a crazy race and difficult to handicap. I imagine that except for a handful of proven routers, we are all taking a stab in the dark… but just watch, one of these N2L horses is going to run a big one.

    • Good call on this one, my wildcard pulled out 2nd but it was one of the Allowance to G1 runners who took to the extra distance and came out in top.

  3. This is a very nice format Beerkeg. If I had a runner in this race, I would love reading a handicapping breakdown like this. Bravo!