May 312019

As mentioned in last week’s Midyear Recap, this week the Future Stars Series is making a change…we’re heading to the 2yo ranks.  I’m hoping to update the race points system to better account for the fact that 2yos have very few career starts at this point, but this week we’re still using the old model.  Which means that this week, we’re headed to Kentucky, where a full field of 14 2yo fillies stretch out to 6.5f for a NW2L Allowance on the dirt.  Many of those fillies have only run once in their careers.  The field is:

#1 – Cats N Birds (Bird Song x Alley Cat [High Yield x Gone West]) – Owned by hoppybob – 25/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $35,406

Race History: One of the two veterans of the field, Cats N Birds also comes into this race as the longshot.  She had a poor debut on the turf back on March 24, but shifted over to the dirt and saw a solid improvement when she ran 4th in her second race.  She comes into this race off of her maiden score in a local 5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on May 11, where she led the field of 9 from the break and held on late, winning by ½ length and earning a career high 70 SP.  She takes on non-local company for the first time here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Bird Song, a multiple graded stakes winner at 8-8.5f out of Champion 3yo filly Bird Town, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $5,000.  His 2018 sim crop (current 3yos and his first crop) currently ranks #156 overall, with 37 winners from 72 runners winning at a 15% rate.  His 3yo crop includes 1 dirt sprinting stakes winner, and his 2yo crop includes a horse who broke her maiden in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes race.  Overall, his sim foals have preferred dirt sprints (72% of earnings on dirt, 78% in sprints).  Cats N Birds is the 4th foal from 18yo mare Alley Cat.  Alley Cat raced for quite a while, crossing a finish line 71 times, with 7 wins among them.  All 7 of those came in dirt sprints, where she spent most of her career.  She took a few shots at the stakes level, but was never able to finish better than 5th in her 4 career tries.  Her first 3 foals are spaced out in age, but only her most recent, 3yo Alley D’Wild (D’Wildcat), has really done anything on the track, as he’s found a niche in Louisiana local races, resulting in 4 wins from 13 career races thus far. He seems to be equally adept to turf and dirt, and to this point, he has spent his entire career sprinting.  Cats N Birds dosage is 4.60, with a CD of 0.86, indicating a strong sprinting preference.

Expectations: Cats N Birds broke through in her last race, which is nice to see, and she’ll take on non-local dirt company for the first time here.  She seems to like being out on the front, so expect her to bolt from the gate and try and set the pace here.  There are some questions about whether she overdoes it early, however, as she’s been tiring late in each of her 3 races and this will be her longest race to date.  But it’s possible that having the 3 race foundation under her will help improve her stamina; we’ll see here.

Watch Level: Low

#2 – Blues Explosion (Violence x Kabamezi [First Samurai x Smart Strike]) – Owned by saluki9 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Blues Explosion began her career at 5f on the dirt in Kentucky back on April 1.  On that day, she sat towards the back of a field of 10, but was only 2 lengths off the lead.  From there, she came running late, passing most of the field on her way to a 1 length victory, earning a 69 SP.  Although that race doesn’t look that strong (none of the field has broken their maidens yet), Blues Explosion will try to capitalize and move forward here.

Pedigree: Violence, the #45 overall (and #1 second-crop) US sire in 2018, was a G1 winner at 8.5f in his career and currently stands in Kentucky for $40,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently consists of 89 runners and 42 winners, winning at a 13.5% rate.  Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, including Got Them All, winner of the Wooden Indian-G1 and 17th in the Bluegrass Derby-G1.  Violence’s sim foals have shown a preference for dirt (68% of earnings on dirt), while being fairly evenly split between sprints and routes (52% in sprints, though his best sim foals have been routers), although his real world AWD of 6.63 indicates a higher preference for sprinting. Blues Explosion is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Kabamezi, the winner of 5 races in her 20 race career.  That career was spent primarily on the turf, with her fastest races coming at the 8f distance, though she was capable anywhere from 6-8.5f.  Her best foal to date is 4yo filly Kabasaluki (Warrior’s Reward), who just narrowly missed in an 8f stakes back in December 2018 and had a record of 11:6-5-0 going into her 4yo year (though she’s had a couple of rough starts as a 4yo).  Overall, Kabamezi’s foals have done their best running at 8f on the dirt.  There is one other Violence x First Samurai horse bred in the sim in the past 5 years, and he has been more of a turf runner, putting up some solid allowance runs in turf routes.  Blues Explosion’s dosage index of 2.43 and CD of 0.58 are, much like Violence’s other sim stats, a little conflicting but make it somewhat likely that she would prefer the mile range.

Expectations: Blues Explosion put something solid together in her first start, and it looks like she’ll be happier getting a little more ground.  Her two best siblings do their best running at 8f on the dirt, so she might end up liking distances slightly longer than this, but the stretch out here should at least make her happy.  Expect her to sit midpack or further back here and then try to make a move late.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Redarro (Cupid x She’s A Beast [Giant’s Causeway x Dynaformer]) – Owned by teesaggro0 – 10/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Race History: Redarro’s debut came back on April 26, when she took on a 6f dirt Hot MSW in Kentucky.  Her competition that day consisted of 1 CPU horse and 2 other fillies, so it wasn’t the strongest competition.  Still, Redarro did what you want to see when a horse takes on inferior completion; she made easy work of her opponents.  Sitting over 3 lengths back early, Redarro came flying late, easily passing the pacesetter and drawing off to win by 1-3/4.  She earned only a 61 SP in that win, but she steps up the competition today to prove that she belongs at this level.

Pedigree: Cupid, a graded stakes winner from 8.5f-10f, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $10,000.  His freshman 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #264 overall, with 44 winners from 77 runners to date, winning at a 14% rate.  The crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 scoring in dirt routes and the third in a turf sprint.  The class has shown a preference for dirt races overall (77% of earnings on dirt), though it’s still too early to tell a distance preference until 3yos can get more routes in.  Redarro is the 3rd foal from 7yo mare She’s a Beast.  She’s a Beast, out of a G1-winning mare, won 8 of her 22 career starts, spending most of that career at the 9-10f dirt distance (and showing some ability at even longer distances).  That career included a 2nd place finish in a 9.5f dirt stakes.  Her first two foals, however, have not shown quite as much talent early on.  4yo Knockingatthedoor (Tapit) is only now finding his way, as he has found the 12-16f distances to be more to his liking, whereas She’s A Beast’s 3yo filly has not yet broken her maiden after 7 starts, now running at the claiming level.  The Cupid x Giant’s Causeway cross has been used 5 times in the past 2 years, with 1 of those being more of a dirt router and one being a sprinter, but it’s too early in those careers to really draw any conclusions.  Redarro’s dosage index of 1.93 and CD of 0.41 indicate a preference for slightly longer races.

Expectations: There’s not a whole lot that we can glean from Redarro’s first career race, other than that it appears she prefers to come from behind.  That shouldn’t be a problem here, as she’ll have some speed to run into.  The hot race likely didn’t take much out of her, but it also didn’t give us much of an idea of how much talent, if any, this filly has.  We’ll see today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Dry Eyes (Palace Malice x Godspeed Hellbound [Dynaformer x Forty Niner]) – Owned by sparkit – 12/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $10,956

Race Record: One of the veterans in the field, Dry Eyes has already raced 3 times in her career.  She broke her maiden at first asking on February 2, in a 5.5f turf MSW in a field of 13.  There, she dueled for the lead early and grabbed it as they turned for home, pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 66 SP.  Dry Eyes regressed a little next time out at 5f on the turf, where she raced evenly and finished 5th (though the top 3 from that race have each gone on to win, including the winner of that NW2L event, who scored in a stakes race next time out). She enters this race off of a surface switch, as she tried dirt in a 6f local NW2L and again raced evenly, earning a career-high 67 SP but finishing 8th in the race (though the winner of that race also went on to stakes victory next time out, with a ridiculous 86 SP).  Dry Eyes will try to improve off of that run here.

Pedigree: Palace Malice, winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes, currently stakes for $15,000 in Kentucky but his real progeny have not yet hit the track.  In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #107, with 58 winners from 98 runners winning at a 15% rate (a little below his average of 16.5%).  Among those 58 winners are 2 stakes winners, Palace Stormer, who has been succeeding in turf sprints, and Into Malice, a dirt sprinter. In general, Palace Malice’s sim progeny have preferred dirt (77% of earnings on dirt), with a pretty even mix of sprints and routes.  He has had 1 graded stakes winner to date.    Dry Eyes is the 7th foal from 11yo mare Godspeed Hellbound, a winner of 7 races in her 30 race career.  In addition to those wins, she was a 3-time stakes placed horse at 8-10f on the turf (which is generally where she did her best running).  She hasn’t really passed down that ability to her foals, however, as only 2 of her 6 previous foals have picked up an allowance win.  There also doesn’t seem to be a common thread in terms of race type, as even though most of her foals’ wins have come on turf, some of their fastest races have been on dirt.  Palace Malice has been bred to a Dynaformer mare 6 times in the past 5 years, but only 1 of those 6 has picked up an allowance win (doing so in a long-distance turf race).  The fastest speeds for the combo have been on turf, though dirt races haven’t been bad either.  Dry Eyes’ dosage index of 1.40 and CD of 0.28 suggest that she wants to run much longer than today’s distance.

Expectations: Dry Eyes has an advantage over some in this field simply by having already raced 3 times.  Unfortunately, her last 2 efforts have left something to be desired.  But it turns out the winners from those races have been very strong horses, so she might be able to do something here coming from a few lengths off the pace.

Watch Level: Low

#5 – Ship The Kash (Midshipman x Kash Street [Street Cry x Bernardini]) – Owned by kashbarn – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Ship The Kash began her racing career in Iowa, in a 5f dirt MSW on April 13.  This filly only caught a field of 5 and went off as the even money favorite.  Sure enough, after sitting 4th early, 1-1/2 lengths back, she came on strong late and pulled away to win by 1 length.  More impressive was the 74 SP that she earned for the win.  The horse that Ship The Kash defeated would come back next time out to break her own maiden with a 72 SP.  Ship The Kash stretches out to 6.5f here as she tries to duplicate her last performance.

Pedigree: Midshipman, winner of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was the #66 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $8,500.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #247 overall, with 27 winners from 46 runners, winning at a 17.5% rate.  One of those winners found victory in an ASR residency-restricted stakes at 8f on the dirt.  But in general, Midshipman’s sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 62% in sprints), which is in line with his real world 6.71 AWD.  Ship The Kash is the 2nd foal from 7yo mare Kash Street.  Kash Street was a winner of 5 races out of her 30 career efforts, though she ran 2nd or 3rd in 18 of the 30, only running worse than 4th twice on dirt.  Most of her career was spent in dirt route allowances, with her best coming in the 9-10f range.  She did get close to a graded stakes placing, finishing 4th in her only career stakes effort in the 2017 King Classic-G2, although she was beaten 11 lengths in that race.  Her first foal, Kash Profit (Tapit), has shown some serious promise thus far, with 3 wins from 7 career starts (though he stumbled in his attempt at the California Derby-G1, where he finished a well-beaten 12th).  Midshipman has been bred to a Street Cry mare 7 times in the past 5 years, with 5 of those 7 earning a win thus far.  The best have been dirt sprinters to date.  Ship The Kash’s dosage index of 3.57 and CD of 0.81 put this 6.5f race right in line with what her pedigree suggests she wants.

Expectations: It was a dominant performance out of the gate for Ship The Kash, made even more impressive by the fact that she only took on 4 opponents.  She should sit midpack or further back in this race, and will try to progress late to repeat her last run.  She definitely has potential, but can she sustain it?

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Renown Runner (Anchor Down x Hushwing Stebbing [Elusive Quality x Royal Academy]) – Owned by hoosier12 – 13/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,080

Race History: Renown Runner is one of the few to have tried this distance already.  In her debut back on April 14 at 6.5f on the dirt, she took on a field of 6, and although she was the 4th choice at 9/2, she grabbed the lead early and never looked back, easily winning by 2-1/4 lengths.  She earned a 68 SP in the win.  The 3rd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 76 SP, so expect Renown Runner to potentially show some improvement here.

Pedigree: Anchor Down, a G2-winning dirt miler (who was 2nd to Frosted in the 2016 Met Mile), currently stands for $7,500 and entered stud in Kentucky in 2017, so none of his real life foals have hit the track.  His 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently includes 56 runners, 29 of which have won at a 13.5% rate.  Among those is 1 stakes winner, who picked up that win in a short turf sprint, but in general his sim horses have largely preferred dirt sprints (73% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints). Renown Runner is the 6th foal from 9yo mare Hushwing Stebbing.  Hushwing Stebbing won 2 races in her 29 race career, but neither win was all that impressive.  Most of her races, and her best efforts, came in dirt routes, though she was never really more than a claimer.  Her foals have done slightly better than she ever did; her first foal, LV Excalibur (Hansen) was primarily a local dirt router in South Korea, but did pick up a local residency-restricted stakes win as well as some other local stakes placings, in dirt routes ranging anywhere from 8-16f.  The only other real consistent runner, Hushwing Algo LV (Algorithms), was best in the 8-9f dirt range.  The Anchor Down x Elusive Quality cross has been used 1 other time, but thus far the 3yo gelding has shown no real interest in racing.  Renown Runner’s dosage index is 3.44, with a 0.75 CD, indicating a preference for sprinting.

Expectations: Renown Runner set the pace in her first race, but she’s facing a much larger field here and might have trouble doing that again.  The bloodlines aren’t particularly strong here, with a bargain sire out of a hot allowance-winning mare, but that doesn’t mean Renown Runner can’t outrun her lineage.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Stone of Orbos (Henny Hughes x Priceless Gift [Cherokee Run x Dixie Union]) – Owned by golfteam3 – 12/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Stone of Orbos made her debut on April 19 in a 5f dirt MSW at Iowa.  She broke a step slow in the field of 9, dropping 3 lengths back early, but got into the race late and came flying at the end, just barely getting up to win the photo by a nose.  She earned a 67 SP for her win as the 4/1 3rd choice.  The 4th place runner from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 67 SP.  Stone of Orbos will try to make things a little easier on herself this time as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Henny Hughes, a multiple G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Japan for 3.5MM Yen and was the #24 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop took a big leap over earlier crops, currently ranking #50 overall with 94 runners and 61 winners, winning at a 19% rate.  2 of those runners have achieved stakes victories, one in a short sprint on dirt and one in a sprint on turf.  Much like the real horse, Henny Hughes’ sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints).  Stone of Orbos is the 6th foal (all fillies) from 12yo mare Priceless Gift, who won 9 of her 47 career races.  Nearly all of those came on the dirt, and although she has a fair number of route efforts to her name, most of Priceless Gift’s success came in dirt sprints.  Her best races actually came on the off track.  Her foals have done ok for themselves, with most of them turning out to be dirt sprinters like their mother.  One of her foals, Four Houses (Lion Heart) is a multiple stakes placed filly at 6.5f on the dirt.  Stone of Orbos’s dosage index doesn’t really tell us much, as there are only 2 chef-de-race point involved (he has a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 1.00).

Expectations: Stone of Orbos took a somewhat surprising route to victory in her first race, as she dropped to the back of the pack in a 5f race and still came on to win.  This filly really seems to have a nose for where the finish line is.  Her speed figure may not be as high as some of the others in here, but she’s got an interesting look to her and she should like the added distance today.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – Loose Cash (Blame x A.P. Indy x Unbridled) – Owned by gliffo8 - 5/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Loose Cash debuted at today’s 6.5f dirt distance in Kentucky back on April 11, and did it in style.  Off as the 4/1 4th choice, Loose Cash dueled for the lead early and quickly put away the other challenger, opening up to lead by 1-1/4 and then maintaining that lead through the finish.  Loose Cash earned a strong 73 SP in the victory, though none of her competition from that race has backed her up (no one has finished better than 3rd, or cracked the 70 SP, in their follow-ups).  Loose Cash will look to repeat that performance here.

Pedigree: Blame, the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $30,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #131 overall, with 41 winners from 84 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.52 AWD.  The cream of the 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 5 in dirt sprints, including the graded stakes wins at 7f.  There are 22 sim horses that share the Blame x A.P. Indy bloodlines over the past 5 years.  Of those, 6 have found the winner’s circle in stakes races, primarily in dirt routes (or longer), with 3 achieving graded stakes victories.  However, most of the Blame x A.P. Indy horses are later bloomers – although half broke their maidens as a 2yo, only 2 of the 22 horses managed to win at the allowance level as a 2yo.  Loose Cash’s 2.73 dosage index and 0.64 CD show that much like the others with similar bloodlines, she might prefer longer distances than today’s race.

Expectations: Loose Cash already has the experience at this distance and put up one of the fastest prior races in the field.  Coupled with her solid bloodlines, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.  The one drawback is that she might prefer longer distances that today’s.  Granted, you won’t get that for a 2yo at this point in the year, so Loose Cash really only has more room to grow as the races get longer.

Watch Level: High

#9 – We Gotta Talk (Curlin x A.P. Indy x Private Account) – Owned by 4stardave – 9/2 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: We Gotta Talk got her career off on the right foot first time out.  Taking on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky, We Gotta Talk battled the pace early, but when the other pacesetters couldn’t keep up, she inherited the lead and never looked back.  We Gotta Talk won by a clear length, earning a 71 SP, and none of her competitors really gained any ground on her late.  The 4th place horse from that race took a huge leap next time out to win an MSW, though 2nd and 3rd from the race didn’t see much of a jump next time out and are still looking to break their maidens.  We Gotta Talk will try to make it 2 for 2 here.

Pedigree: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #26 overall, with 102 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.  That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.  Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.  The Curlin x A.P. Indy cross has resulted in 55 runners over the past 5 years, 42 of which (76%) are winners.  7 of those have earned stakes victories (though none have found Graded Stakes success just yet), with the majority of those pulling off the feat in dirt routes.  41% of the Curlin x A.P. Indy 2yos that broke their maiden as a 2yo have gone on to win an allowance race as a 2yo.  We Gotta Talk’s dosage index of 3.29 and CD of 0.73 suggest that she might love sprinting here.

Expectations: We Gotta Talk put together a strong debut, where she went off as the 3/1 favorite and ran like it.  She should be forwardly placed again here, and the bloodlines look like they produce solid 2yos.  We Gotta Talk might be happier once the races stretch out even more, but repeating at 6.5f to start her career won’t hurt.

Watch Level: High

#10 – By Var The Best (Var x Given Away Kash [Any Given Saturday x Dynaformer] – Owned by onamission – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: By Var The Best kicked off her career on April 13 in a 5f dirt MSW in Iowa.  Taking on a field of 4, she sat last early, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back before turning on the jets.  But she turned them on without a problem and crossed the finish line ¾ length ahead, earning a 72 SP as the 6/5 favorite.  She’ll stretch out some here as she tries to pick up win #2.

Pedigree: Var, a G1 winning turf sprinter, was the #3 ranked South African sire in 2018.  His sim foals are slowly starting the catch up to that, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 54 winners from 72 runners, winning at an 18% rate.  2 of those 54 have found stakes victories, one who is a stakes winner at 7.5f on the dirt and G3-placed at 8f, and the other who is a stakes winner at 5-6f on the dirt.  His sim foals have primarily been sprinters (67% of earnings in sprints), with an ever-so-slight preference for dirt (56% on dirt).  By Var The Best is the 5th foal from 10yo mare Given Away Kash.  Given Away Kash won 6 of her 39 career races, but really excelled as a 2yo, winning 2 stakes races in dirt sprints in her 2nd and 3rd career starts.  She also ended up as a stakes placed turf sprinter and turf routers, and actually put up her best speed figures at 8f on the dirt.  Her first foal, 6yo mare Collecting Kash (City Place), inherited a fair amount of her mother’s talent, and was 4-time stakes placed at 8.5-9.5f on both turf and dirt.  The other founds haven’t found quite as much hardware and instead preferring to dominate the claiming and starter ranks.  Var has been bred to an Any Given Saturday mare 3 times in the past 5 years, though neither of the others have done much of note on the track.  Unlike most of Var’s foals, the dosage index of By Var The Best says that his best races will be much longer, with a 1.67 DI and a 0.38 CD.

Expectations: By Var The Best found an easy spot in her first race but capitalized on it, putting up a strong speed figure for this field.  The indications are that she likes to make a late run, so expect her to sit somewhere in the middle or further back.  By Var The Best doesn’t have the bluest of bloodlines, though it’s also not quite the bargain bloodlines of some of the others in this field.  There’s potential here for a breakout 2yo campaign.

Watch Level: Medium

#11 – Rowdy Cura Storm (Curandero x Pomeroy Storm [Pomeroy x Storm Cat]) – Owned by simhorse16 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $16,860

Race History: The oddsmakers might not like Rowdy Cura Storm’s debut, but it was a solid run nonetheless.  Taking on a 5.5f dirt MSW in Ohio on April 17, Rowdy Cura Storm broke very slow and started 11th in a field of 13, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back.  But she came flying late, circling the entire field in time to get up to win by ¼ length at 14/1.  The speed figure was only a 66, but the horse she edged out would come back to break her maiden next time out with a 71 SP.  Rowdy Cura Storm looks to prove that her last race was no fluke as she stretches out a bit here.

Pedigree: Curandero, an unraced son of Storm Cat out of a Forty Niner mare, currently stands in Texas for $1,000 and was the #57 ranked Texas sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop ranks #1,001 overall, but that’s because it only contains 6 runners, 3 of which have won at an insane 26% rate.  That number is buoyed by The Alamo, who has been very successful in the local claiming ranks, mostly on the turf in the 7-8.5f range.  Curandero does have 1 sim stakes winner in 4yo Fairhope, a stakes winner and G3-placed colt at 7.5f on the dirt.   His foals at usually sprints (67% of earnings in sprints), but have a pretty even split on surfaces (52% on dirt, though that might owe to his few best foals being solid dirt horses while most others prefer turf).  Rowdy Cura Storm is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Pomeroy Storm.  Pomeroy Storm debuted as a 3yo and looked pretty good early, winning 3 of her first 4 races and 4 of her first 6 (including 2 local allowances), but she was never again able to find the winner’s circle in her 31 career races.  She proved to be a dirt runner, preferring anywhere from 6-8f.  Her first 3 foals have all been dirt sprinters but none has been all that impressive, with only 1 combined allowance win in 42 total races.  Rowdy Cura Storm’s DI of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right about average distances based on her bloodlines (which are 2×3 inbred to Storm Cat).

Expectations: Rowdy Cura Storm is a bargain bred horse, and thus the oddsmakers may not like her, but her last race was a solid run.  She gets another furlong here, which doesn’t look like it will hurt her, and she showed a closing kick in her first race when coming from the back.  But her speed in her first race was a little behind the best in here, and it looks like she’ll need to take a step forward to really stamp herself as legit here.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Vale Redoute (Schoolyard Dreams x Redoustina [Redoute’s Choice x Crafty Prospector]) – Owned by superfecta – 22/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Vale Redoute pulled off a bit of an upset in her debut.  Going off at 13/1 in a field of 9 in a 5f dirt MSW at Kentucky on April 4, Vale Redoute dropped back early, sitting about 2 lengths back.  She started to move up as they reach the top of the stretch and then came on strong late, just getting up to win by ¾ length.  The win earned her a 64 SP.  Of note, the 2nd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 65 SP.  Vale Redoute will try to extend that late run here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Schoolyard Dreams, a multiple graded stakes placed dirt miler, entered stud in Canada in 2015 and currently stands for $2,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #1,063, with 11 winners from 21 runners to date, winning at a 21.5% rate.  The sim foals have largely been dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 76% in sprints), and although none have achieved stakes victories yet (and only 4 have allowance wins), Flew Too High has been by far the most successful foal thus far, finishing 2nd in The Rebel Yell-G3 at 8.5f on the dirt.  Vale Redoute is the 5th foal from 13yo mare Redoustina, a 3-time stakes winner and G3-placed dirt sprinter.  Redoustina did most of her damage in the 5.5-6.5f range (though she has a stakes win at 7.5f as well).  Her foals, however, seem to be hit-or-miss, with an emphasis on the miss.  The one exception to that is 6yo Creedoustina (Jimmy Creed), who managed to pick up a stakes win at 5.5f to end his 3yo campaign en route to 6 wins from 22 starts thus far.  Vale Redoute’s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right in the middle when it comes to preferred distances.

Expectations: Vale Redoute has a solid backend to her pedigree, though her bargain sire is likely the reason she went off at 13/1 in her debut and is 22/1 today.  But that doesn’t mean that this filly can’t be great.  Her debut race was a solid one as she came from behind to take the victory, and the added distance here doesn’t hurt.  She may need to step it up a notch here in order to win, but it’s not ridiculous to think that she could.

Watch Level: Medium

#13 – Yankee Justine (Justify x Yankee Cinnamon [Giant’s Causeway x Tale of the Cat]) – Owned by Yankeetown – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $39,340

Race History: The sponsor of this race, Yankee Justine is one of the few with more than 1 career race under her belt.  Her debut came back on February 2 in a 4.5f dirt MSW at Kentucky.  In a field of 11, she battled the pace early but couldn’t quite keep up late, finishing 3rd and earning a 64 SP.  But the race did her good, and Yankee Justine would go on to win her 2nd race, a 5.5f MSW on April 6, by 1 length after sitting just off the pace early.  She earned a 69 SP in the win.  The 2nd place horse in her most recent race would run 2nd again next time out at the MSW level.  Yankee Justine stretches out again to 6.5f here.

Pedigree: Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, currently stands in Kentucky for $150,000.  His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 27 winners from 88 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with one colt having picked up a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win to kick off his career (and most recently was 4th in the Vermont BB Juvenile-G2 at 6f on the dirt). Yankee Justine is the first foal from 4yo early-retired mare Yankee Cinnamon.  Yankee Cinnamon was a stakes winner who earned 10 wins in her 20 race career.  Her one stakes win came in career start #2, where she took home a 5f dirt 2yo stakes.  But most of her career was spent at the hot allowance level, with the slight majority of her races and wins coming in turf routes, but her fastest speed figures coming in dirt routes.  Only 2 of the 4 foals by Justify out of a Giant’s Causeway mare have hit the track yet, and Yankee Justine is the only one with a win.  With a dosage index of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38, Yankee Justice might be biding her time for longer races later in the year.

Expectations: Yankee Justine’s first 2 races have seen her sit just off the pacesetters early, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her forwardly placed here.  For a sire pedigree line, she is quite the blue blood, and one would expect her to get better as the distances increase. But I’m not sure the dam was quite as strong as she first looks on paper (though the dam’s line has a G3 winner and a G3-placed horse as the granddam and great-granddam, so there’s some promise in the bloodlines.

Watch Level: High

#14 – Lady Tornado (Toronado x Lady Grinning Soul [Palace Malice x Dansili (GB)]) – Owned by leeleea21 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,680

Race History: Lady Tornado is the only filly in this field to have debuted at the claiming level. She kicked off her career on April 6 in a $20,000 MCL at 5.5f on the dirt in Illinois.  Running against a field of 4, she went off as the co-favorite at even money, and took off for the lead, never looking back.  She set the early pace and then drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths, with a 57 SP.  Of note, the 2nd and 4th place horses in that race came back at the MCL level next time out and finished 3rd and 5th, respectively.  Lady Tornado makes the jump to the allowance level here to see if she can compete with the big girls.

Pedigree: Toronado, a multiple G1 winning turf miler in the UK, was the #162 ranked French sire in 2018 (it may have been his first crop) and currently stands in France for $12,000.  Toronado’s 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #855 overall, with 20 winners from 37 runners winning at a 9% rate.  None of those horses has had stakes success yet, though one was G2-placed as a 2yo in a turf mile.  His sim foals significantly favor the turf (78% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even sprint/route split (53% in routes).  Lady Tornado is the second foal from 5yo mare Lady Grinning Soul, who won 2 of 26 races in her career.  Her maiden win was at 8f on the turf in a hot race, and her only other win was in a $20K claimer at 8.5f. Most of her races came on the turf in the 7-8.5f range, though she did her best running around the mile.  Her first foal, 3yo Brody’s Grinning (Brody’s Cause), seemed to take a little while to get going but now has a 6:1-1-4 record, starting to excel as a deep closer as he stretches out.  Lady Tornado’s dosage index of 1.22 and CD of 0.20 indicate a preference for longer races.

Expectations: Lady Tornado wasn’t the most highly touted 2yo to debut and doesn’t have the greatest bloodlines, but she did what she needed to do in her debut effort.  She went unclaimed so her owner has decided to see if she has the ability to compete at a higher level.  The speed figure from her debut is well below the others in this field, but the race setup didn’t require her to work any harder, so we expect to see some improvement here.  The only question is whether it will be enough improvement.

Watch Level: Low

That’s your field of 14 for this first 2yo Future Stars Series race.  Normally, I’d give my predictions, but I have no clue how to handicap a 2yo race where 11 of the 14 horses have only run once.  So my completely arbitrary predictions are: (1) Loose Cash; (2) Renown Runner; (3) We Gotta Talk.  Good luck!

Other 2yo Races To Watch This Weekend:

1)      Berkshire-ENG – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f

2)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f

3)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f-T

4)      Texas – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f (Fillies)

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  2 Responses to “Future Stars Series – We Shift To 2yos For a Full Field at 6.5f in Kentucky”

  1. Thanks for the excellent coverage!

  2. Nicely done and enjoyed the read. Thanks