Jun 142019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  Prince of Sealand shot out of the gate like a rocket, setting the early pace in the 6.5f race.  Road To Heroes sat in great position just off of the pacesetter and looked dangerous throughout the race.  But as they hit the top of the stretch, it was Traffic Ride ($10.10), flying from well back, who got up and took over the lead.  Traffic Ride took the win by 1 length, earning a 78 SP for the effort.  Road To Heroes couldn’t keep up with the winner, but held on tight and narrowly edged out stalking Crafty Beauty in a photo for 2ndCrafty Beauty finished 3rd, and it was another ½ length back to Prince of Sealand in 4th.

On an administrative note, this week the Future Stars Series is making a slight change.  In an attempt to shorten these articles (which are getting way too long), and because there’s so little racing history with these 2yos, I’m combining the “Race History”, “Pedigree”, and “Expectations” into one paragraph called “Capsule”.  Is it still too long?  Probably (there’s a lot to talk about when it comes to pedigrees).  But it’s better.  So without further ado, this week the Future Stars Series travels to Berkshire – England, where a field of 13 fillies tries out the newly unlocked 7f distance in a turf allowance.  The field is:

#1 – No Nay Spirit (No Nay Never x I’m A Kayak [Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Galileo (IRE)] – Owned by harrylan – 6/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $46,370

Capsule: No Nay Spirit broke very slowly in her debut on February 16, but closed to finish 2nd in a 6f-T MSW with a 74 SP, so for her 2nd race she was stretched out to 6.5f-T and she responded in kind, dropping well back early but flying late to win by 1-1/2 lengths with a 72 SP.  No Nay Spirit is the first foal from 4yo early-bred mare I’m A Kayak, who was sent to No Nay Never to produce the filly.  I’m A Kayak didn’t spend a long time on the track, with only 9 career races and 1 win in a $30,000 MCL, where she was claimed.  That win came in a turf 4.5f sprint, but after the claim she stretched out and put up a couple of decent races at the starter level in dirt miles.  No Nay Never ($100,000), a turf sprinter and the #85 ranked EU sire in 2018, currently has the #1 ranked 2019 sim crop with 29 winners from 73 runners to date.  This slightly outpaces his 2018 crop’s current ranking of #22, though that crop is doing a little better with 7 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners to date.   No Nay Never’s sim foals are heavy sprinters (75% of earnings in sprints), with a slight turf preference (59% on turf), and this is true of the No Nay Never x Invincible Spirit cross as well, as the 3 horses from the past 5 years with those bloodlines have combined for 12 wins (5 in dirt sprints, 7 in turf sprints) and 1 turf sprint stakes placing.  Based on No Nay Spirit’s (DI: 1.15; CD: 0.14) past races and her pedigree, today’s 7f distance doesn’t seem like it should bother her.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Street Mule (Army Mule x Street Slew [Street Cry x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by want2win – 15/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $6,000

Capsule: Street Mule won her debut in a hot MSW in a field of 4, and that win propelled her up to the stakes level for her 2nd race.  In that 12 horse field at 6f-T, Street Mule broke midpack and moved forward late, but couldn’t quite get up for a placing and settled for 4th, 1-1/2 lengths behind the winner (who went on to run 2nd in a G2 next time out) but ahead of today’s rival Damardal (5th).  Street Mule earned a 68 SP in the race.   Street Mule is by Army Mule and is the 11th foal out of 15yo mare Street Slew.  Street Slew wasn’t much on the course, winning only 3 of her 31 career races, with only 1 at the allowance level and all 3 in turf routes.  She has, however, produced a stakes winning turf sprinter and a stakes placed turf router, with most of her foals doing their best in turf routes.  Army Mule ($10,000), a freshman sire and son of Friesan Fire, won the G1 Carter Handicap at 7f on dirt in 2018.  Army Mule’s 2019 sim crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 10 winners from 26 runners.  Those runners have focused on dirt races thus far, though they are 0 for 11 collectively on turf (against 8 for 36 on dirt).  Street Mule (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.81) will come from midpack today with the class drop to prove that the hot win was not just a hot race result.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – A Shin Causeway (A Shin Hikari (JPN) x Of Campbell River [Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by newastin14 – 11/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-1; $43,165

Capsule: One of the veterans of the field, A Shin Causeway struggled a bit in his 3rd place debut, but broke through in his second race, at 6f-T on March 15.  There, she sat midpack early and came on strong late, drawing off to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 72 SP.  She came back on April 27 in a NW2L allowance at 6.5f-T and followed that same running style, but couldn’t quite catch today’s rival Golden Temptress and settled for 2nd with a 73 SP.  A Shin Causeway is the 2nd foal from 9yo mare Of Campbell River, and the first of her foals by A Shin Hikari (JPN).  Of River Campbell was a stakes winning dirt sprinter (at 7.5f) who won 5 of her 19 career races, mostly in dirt races around the 7.5-8.5f range.  Her first foal, Obambulate, has not done much on the track, with just 1 turf sprint win in 11 career starts. A Shin Causeway’s sire, A Shin Hikari (2.5MM Yen), was a multiple G1 winner in turf routes in his career and entered stud in 2017, so his real foals have not yet hit the track.  His 2017 sim crop includes 2 graded stakes winners, both in turf routes, and his 2018 crop is currently ranked #255 with 34 winners from 68 runners, with 1 turf sprinting stakes winner among the crop.  A Shn Hikari’s sim foals have shown a significant turf preference, while also seeming to prefer sprinting on the numbers (though 64% of his foals earnings have come in routes). It’s even more pronounced for the A Shin Hikari x Giant’s Causeway cross, which has produced 6 runners to date, 1 of which is a 3-time graded stakes winner at 10-12f, and 2 others that are graded stakes placed (1 in turf sprints, 1 in long turf).  A Shin Causeway (DI: 1.50; CD: 0.30) will likely sit midpack as she tries to move late.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Big Band Channel (English Channel x Street Band [Street Cry x Dixieland Band]) – Owned by pasorobles – 11/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Big Band Channel comes into this race after breaking her maiden in her second career start, at 6f on the turf, where she stalked the pace early and then moved forward as the pacesetters tired, keeping the closers at bay and winning by ¾ lengths, earning a 71 SP for the victory.  Big Band Channel is a daughter of English Channel, out of 10yo mare Street Band.  English Channel ($30,000), the 2007 Turf Eclipse Award Winner, was the #17 ranked US sire in 2018 but his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #311 overall, with 34 winners from 69 runners.  Only one of those is a stakes winner.  English Channel’s sim progeny are heavy turf routers, in line with his 7.99 AWD, with 75% of earnings on turf and 73% in routes.  Street Band won 7 of her 41 career starts, all on the turf and mainly in the 10-13f range.  Her first 3 foals have shown promise, with 5yo Daiwa Street (Daiwa Major (JPN)) a stakes winner at today’s 7f-T distance.  The English Channel x Street Cry combo has likewise been successful, with 1 stakes winning turf router among the 3 runners of the past 5 years (the other non-Big Band Channel horse is also an allowance winner in turf routes). Big Band Channel (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.80) will try to stay close to the pace or just off of it in her attempt to win 2 in a row.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – All We Hear Is (War Front x Teotihuacan [Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by griffeyjr – 4/1 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: All We Hear Is dominated her debut on April 27, as she went off at 7/1 in the 14 horse 6.5f-T MSW and after breaking midpack, she kicked into high gear late and drew off to win by 1-1/2 lengths.  She earned a 74 SP for the win there, and she’ll stretch out a bit here which should fit right in.  All We Hear Is is the daughter of War Front, and the 8th foal out of 16yo mare Teotihuacan.  Teotihuacan is a stakes-winning dirt miler who won 9 of her 41 career starts, all at the dirt mile distance.  Her foals are equally well-acquainted with the winner’s circle, as she has 1 stakes winning foal (in a dirt sprint) and 3 other stakes placed foals (two in dirt miles, one in a turf mile) among the group, 6 of the 7 of whom have at least 1 allowance win (the only one that doesn’t is the 3yo).  All We Hear Is’s sire, War Front ($250,000), was the #23 ranked US sire of 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #6 overall, with 124 winners from 179 runners, including 12 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners.  His sim foals are largely dirt horses (69% of earnings on dirt), with an even split between sprints and routes, on par with his 7.32 AWD.  The War Front x Giant’s Causeway cross is popular, having been used 36 times in the past 5 years, producing 31 winners, 3 stakes winners/5 stakes placed (mostly in turf routes) and 1 graded stakes winner (coming in a long distance turf race).  All We Hear Is (DI: 2.00; CD: 0.43) will try to run back to that debut effort as she stretches out to 7f here.

Watch Level: High

#6 – Lady Is Roaring (Roaring Lion x Rain Spirit Quest [Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Rainbow Quest]) – Owned by stockswami11 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Lady is Roaring enters this race 1-for-1 in her career, after taking her debut at 6.5f-T on April 8 by ¾ length.  Sitting midpack early, she came flying late and earned a 70 SP for her win (the 2nd place horse would come back to break her maiden next time out).  Lady is Roaring is by Roaring Lion, out of 7yo he-mare Rain Spirit Quest.  Roaring Lion ($40,000), the EU Horse of the Year in 2018, is a son of Kitten’s Joy.  His freshman 2019 sim crop currently ranks #184 thus far, with 34 runners and 9 winners to date.  Although we don’t know much about his stallion career yet, Roaring Lion was a multiple G1 winner at 9-10f on the turf when racing.  Rain Spirit Quest was also an excellent horse on the track, winning 8 of his 30 career races.  5 of those wins came at the stakes level, with 3 G2 wins among them.  All of those wins came in the 8-8.5f turf range, which is where he did his best running.  In addition to those wins, Rain Spirit Quest was graded stakes placed 7 other times, including a 2nd place finish in the 2017 Sand Castle Fee Duty-G1 at 8.5f-T.  Lady Is Roaring (DI: 1.46; CD: 0.38) stretches out here as she looks to take the next step in her career.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – Mafina (Finale x Playboy Bunny [Cape Cross x Daylami (IRE)]) – Owned by tobiman – 36/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $25,200

Capsule: Mafina is one of the most experienced filly in this field, with 3 career races under her belt.  She broke her maiden on a good dirt track at 6f in race #2, but comes into this race off of a big SP jump when she made the turf switch last time out, putting up a 71 SP in a NW2L 6.5f-T allowance at 24/1 where she showed off a deep closing kick.  Mafina is the daughter of Finale, out of 14yo mare Playboy Bunny, a winner of 3 races in her 17 race career.  Playboy Bunny was a turf runner and seemed to show about the same ability in both sprints and routes, but spent most of her career in claimers or *CPU-restricted allowances.  Of her 9 previous foals, only 1 has won a non-hot, non-local allowance, doing so as a turf sprinter, but ultimately none of those foals have shown much on the track.  Mafina’s sire, Finale ($3,000 – FL), a son of Scat Daddy who was a G3-winning turf miler in Canada, was the #129 ranked New Mexico sire in 2018.  His sim crop is small, as the 2018 class only includes 3 runners to date, none of which have won, and currently ranks #3,480 (overall, 6 of his 12 sim foals have won non-hot races).  Finale’s sim foals are too few to really tell their preferences, but 4 of the 6 winners have earned wins in dirt sprints, though none have ever won an allowance race. Mafina (DI: 1.00; CD: -0.07) looks to prove that the turf bump in her last race was legit, and not just a dirt-to-turf bump, as she tries to become the first allowance winner for her sire.

Watch Level: Low

#8 – Forlorn Lover (I Am Invincible x Dainty Miss [Danehill x Mining]) – Owned by roosters02 – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; 33,720

Capsule: Forlorn Lover, a daughter of #2 ranked Australian sire I Am Invincible ($27,500), enters this race off of her maiden score in her debut on April 7.  There, at 5.5f on the turf, she sat 2nd early before moving up late and taking the victory with a 67 SP.  Forlorn Lover is the 7th and final foal from 20yo mare Dainty Miss, a stakes winning (and 4-time stakes placed) turf sprinter who won 10 of her 49 career races.  Unfortunately, Dainty Miss has not been a great sim producer, and only 1 of her 6 previous foals have managed a non-hot, non-local allowance victory.  Forlorn Lover’s siblings have varied in distance and surface preferences.  I Am Invincible’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #24 with 91 winners from 119 runners, including 13(!) stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners; among them is 2018 Sim Eclipse Award Champion 2yo Filly Invincible Irish, and his 2019 crop is currently ranked #17 overall, with G3 winner Sinew leading the way. His sim foals are primarily turf sprinters (70% of earnings on turf, 71% in sprints), in line with I Am Invincible’s on-track career. The I Am Invincible x Danehill cross has produced 5 foals in the past 5 years, 3 of which are stakes placed turf sprinters.  Forlorn Lover (DI: 1.80; CD: 0.43), looks to take a step forward from her stalking position in today’s race.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Livincal (Acclamation (GB) x Livininthefuture [Redoute’s Choice x Kris S.]) – Owned by extras7 – 15/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Livincal had a rough debut on February 23, trying a 6f-T MSW but tiring to finish 7th.  She came back in a big way on April 10, however, opening up a large lead as the pacesetter in a 6.5f-T MSW and then hanging on late to win by ½ length, earning a 67 SP.  Livincal is by Acclamation, the #17 EU sire of 2018, and is the 3rd foal out of 6yo mare Livininthefuture.  Acclamation ($40,000), a sprint sire with a real life 6.85 AWD, produces the same in the sim, with 70% of earnings on turf and 65% in sprints.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #96 overall, with 59 winners from 89 runners, including 4 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners (including Japanese Oaks-G1 (12f-T) winner Skaftafell).  Livininthefuture was a 3-time allowance winner and won 5 of her 22 career races, all in turf sprints.  Her first foal, 4yo, Sea The Future (Sea The Stars (IRE)), improved on Livininthefuture and is already a 2-time stakes winner at 5.5f on the turf through 10 career races; however, her second foal is winless through 8 career starts.  The Acclamation x Redoute’s Choice cross has produced 13 runners in the past 5 years, 4 of which are stakes placed (1 stakes winner) in turf sprints (1 is also stakes placed in a turf route).  Livincal (DI: 1.40; CD: 0.17) may try to wire this field just like she did in her last race.

Watch Level: Low

#10 – Golden Temptress (Gold Allure (JPN) x Tempestuous Outburst [Congrats x Johannesburg]) – Owned by mfwoodward – 13/1

Race Record: 2:2-0-0; $48,300

Capsule: Golden Temptress is the most accomplished horse in this field, being the only filly with 2 wins on her record already.  After breaking her maiden on February 22 at 6f on the turf, she tried a NW2L allowance at 6.5f-T on April 27 and proved that her debut was no fluke, as she sat just off of the pace and then showed no mercy in pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a career-high 75 SP and defeating today’s rival A Shin Causeway (2nd).  Golden Temptress is the 3rd foal from 8yo mare Tempestuous Outburst and is the daughter of Gold Allure.  Tempestuous Outburst was a stakes winning turf sprinter in her racing days, winning 7 of her 28 career races, all in turf sprints.  Her first two foals, however, have picked up all of their wins in dirt routes, so it will be interesting to see if Golden Temptress follows more closely behind her mother or her half-siblings.  Gold Allure, the #8 Japanese sire in 2018, sadly passed away in 2017 but was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (mainly in the 10f range).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #629, with 18 winners from 29 runners (no stakes winners).  His sim foals are pretty evenly split in distance and surface based on earnings, though that’s skewed by the 5-time graded stakes-winning turf router Silver Way. By the numbers, Gold Allure’s sim foals tend to favor sprinting (with a very slight edge to the dirt).  Golden Temptress (DI: 2.08; CD: 0.60) will try to sit just off the pace as she tries to start her career with a 3 race winning streak.

Watch Level: High

#11 – Damardal (Shamardal x Bichito Rapido[Dansili (GB) x Distorted Humor]) – Owned by desertdog18 – 5/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $32,360

Capsule: Damardal looked like a world beater in her debut on February 23 at 6f on the turf, as she dueled on the pace and held on to win by ½ length, earning a monster 78 SP (the 2nd place horse from that race came back to run 2nd with a 74 SP in her next maiden attempt, and then finally broke it in race #3).  That effort led to a stakes run at 6f-T on May 5, where Damardal went off as the 3/1 favorite but disappointed, finishing 5th with only a 68 SP and finishing just behind today’s rival Street Mule (4th), though the winner of that stakes came back to run 2nd in a G2 next time out).  Damardal is the only foal from 6yo he-mare Bichito Rapido, who was sent to Shamardal when he was retired.  Bichito Rapido won 6 of his 29 career races, 4 of those at the allowance level, and he did his best running in turf miles (running 5th at both the stakes and G3 levels).  Shamardal, meanwhile, was the 2004 Cartier Champion 2yo Colt (and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner) and was the #5 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His sim foals follow his real world lead in their turf prowess (72% of earnings on turf), though they tend to go slightly longer than their real life counterparts (62% of earnings in routes, vs. a real world 7.92 AWD).  The 2018 crop currently ranks #30 overall, with 97 winners from 151 runners, including 14 stakes winner and 1 G3-winning turf miler.  The Shamardal x Dansili cross has produced 14 horses in the past 5 years, 3 of which have won turf route stakes, and 2 of which have won graded stakes (1 in a turf sprint, 1 in a turf route).  Damardal (DI: 1.40; CD: 0.25) drops back down in class here and stretches out to try and prove that her debut was not a fluke.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Carrying On (Harry Angel (IRE) x In Philadelphia [Lonhro x Kingmambo]) – Owned by plainfield – 11/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $43,545

Capsule: Carrying On made her debut on February 24 at 6f on the turf and sat towards the back early, slowly picking off some of her competitors and settling for 2nd, 2 lengths back of the winner (who went on to repeat at the allowance level next time out) and earning a 68 SP.  Her second race showed that she just needed to get her sea legs under her, as she again sat back early but came flying late in a 6.5f-T MSW, winning by 1-3/4 lengths and earning a 73 SP on April 23.  Carrying On is the daughter of Harry Angel (IRE), out of early-bred 4yo mare In Philadelphia.  In Philadelphia wasn’t much on the track, winning her debut at 6f on the turf but never finding consistency anywhere.  Her fastest race was at 8.5f on the dirt when she ran 2nd in a NW2L.  Freshman sire Harry Angel ($20,000) was the 2017 Cartier Champion Sprinter.  His 2019 sim crop currently ranks #94 overall, with 6 of 26 winners (all but 3 of the races have come on turf thus far).  Carrying On (DI: 0.71; CD: 0.00) will sit midpack or further back here, but the added half furlong should help.

Watch Level: High

#13 – Tysha (Zelzal (FR) x Tyrion Kills Me [Dansili (GB) x Dynaformer]) – Owned by dosstables – 13/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $18,030

Capsule: Tysha got away from the gate slowly in her debut at 6f-T on March 16, but came on late and got up to win by ¾ length, earning a 67 SP in the win (the 2nd place horse jumped up to the allowance level in her next race and picked up a win with a 74 SP).  Unfortunately, Tysha didn’t show the same late move in her 2nd race, a NW2L at 6.5f-T on April 28, and after sitting 6th of 7 early, she couldn’t really advance and had to settle for a 4th place finish with a 64 SP.  Tysha is the second foal from 7yo mare Tyrion Kills Me, a turf router who was twice stakes placed at 9.5-10f-T and won 11 of 33 career races, all but one in turf routes. Her first foal, Duraformer (Duramente (JPN)), is 3 for 5 lifetime thus far in his career, making a massive jump in SP from 2 to 3 when stretching out to turf routes.  Tysha’s second year sire, Zelzal ($8,000), was a G1-winning turf miler in his career.  His first sim crop currently ranks #245 overall with 31 winners from 59 runners.  Included in that crop are 3 stakes winners and 1 graded stakes winner, Lactical, winner of the Triangular Star Stakes-G3 (8.5f-T).   The Zelzal x Dansili cross has produced 3 runners thus far, and all 3 have won races, though none have yet earned an allowance win through 19 combined races.  Tysha (DI: 0.89; CD: 0.00) will look to close from the back of the pack as she looks to mimic her sibling’s jump between races 2 and 3.

Watch Level: Low

That’s the field for this 7f turf allowance.  It’s a tough call, because a lot of these fillies look like they have some talent. But I’m gonna go with Golden Temptress, the only runner here proven at this level.  Following her, I’ll take the class drop of Damardal to correct the big SP drop, followed closely by All We Hear Is.

Other Races to Watch This Weekend:

1)      Florida – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Division 1) (Division 2)

2)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 6f (Fillies)

3)      Paris – FR – Alw NW2L @ 6f-T (Fillies)

4)      Florida – Alw NW2L @ 7f

5)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 7f (Fillies)

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  3 Responses to “Future Stars Series – 13 Fillies Stretch to 7f on the Berkshire Turf on Sunday”

  1. Awesome article Shags, loved it. Thank you for the time.

  2. For those reading the series…do we like this “Capsule” style better than the Race History/Pedigree/Expectations style? It definitely makes things shortER. I think I’m gonna stick with this for a while, since it still conveys most of the relevant information, but I’m curious if others have a thought.

  3. Amazingly well done article. All I can think to say is wow!