We have reached about the halfway point of the 2019 racing season, maybe a little past that mark as most of the 3yo classic races are over. This allows us to reflect upon which sires have had a successful season and see if we can find future value for 2yo breedings. To that end, I have scored all the stallions who have produced graded winners in the URC this year awarding 10 points for a G1 win, 6 points for a G2 and 3 points for a G3. What is the reasoning behind these points? It seems that a trainer is twice as happy with winning a G2 over a G3 and likely would prefer a G1 winner over three G3 winners. Here are how the stallions ranked:
- City Zip – 20
- Giant’s Causeway – 19
- Tapit and Sea the Stars – 15
- Galileo and Acclamation – 13
- I am Invincible, Australia, and Dundeel – 10
- War Front and Dubawi – 9
- Constitution, Bayern, Mossman, Candy Ride, Tale of the Cat, Adelaide – 6
- 17 tied with – 3
Of the 11 sires who scored 9 points or higher, there aren’t many bargains to be found and it comes down to the top stallions performing to their ability. Giant’s Causeway, Sea the Stars, and Tapit, all top 5 sires in the SIM appear near the top here as well. City Zip was elite in his final years within the SIM and has some very good horses still out on the track. Galileo has his ups and downs but has scored well on this list. War Front and Dubawi both have made their presence known. The biggest named stallions who missed the upper echelon of the list were Frankel, American Pharaoh, Dansili, Ghostzapper, Curlin, Uncle Mo and Deep Impact. There are four value sires on the list cost in () – Acclamation (low 200s), I am Invincible (mid-300s), Australia (low-300s) and Dundeel (under 100).
One area that really jumps out on this list is the group at 6, all of whom produced a G2 winner. What is curious is that all of them are value sires capable of getting a graded quality runner. Galileo stands out with himself and sons Australia and Adelaide. Tapit and his son Constitution represent the A.P. Indys with Bernardini and Malibu Moon being shut out.
When we dive into the group of 17 who all have one G3 winner we find: Quality Road, King Kamehameha, Into Mischief, Zelzal, Speightstown, Empire Maker, Snitzel, Darci Brahma, Americain, Pierro, Redoute’s Choice, Honor Code, Frankel, Arch, Macho Uno, Lonhro, and Shamardal. A diverse group that, other than Frankel, all represent sires who won’t break your budget.
Now that we’ve taken a look at the stallions, let’s dive into the female line which certainly plays a significant role in a horses success as well. Here is the DS list:
- Galileo – 38
- Street Cry – 20
- Seeking the Gold – 15
- Woodman and More Than Ready – 13
- Storm Cat – 12
- El Prado and Curlin – 10
- Montjeu – 9
- Sadler’s Wells, Deep Impact, Kingmambo, Polish Numbers, Sebring, Pine Bluff, Giant’s Causeway, War Chant – 6
- 14 tied with – 3
Clearly, the first thing that catches the eye is Galileo mare dominance. A whopping 38 point tally clearly pushes him into another zone. Mr. Prospector sons Seeking the Gold and Woodman scored high as did emerging dam sires Street Cry and More Than Ready. Curlin, shut out from the sire list appears here among prominent company. Storm Cat, always an elite DS is here but A.P. Indy isn’t. Sadler’s Wells shows up along with his sons Montjeu and El Prado. I’m intrigued by the trio of Danzig sons in Pine Bluff, Polish Numbers, and War Chant.
Frankly, there aren’t many values here and it clearly illustrates that you need a strong female foundation to create a graded runner. The Danzig son trio does offer a potential path but essentially a superior DS is needed. Scratch bred to mare breeding was just about equal by half with 16 scratch breds to 31 mare breedings. From the group of 14 there are mostly big names as well. Danzig, Dynaformer, Awesome Again, New Approach, Danehill, Redoute’s Choice, Oasis Dream, Tiznow, Broken Vow, Unbridled’s Song, Dubawi, Forestry, Lemon Drop Kid, and Distorted Humor. This really makes you consider your choice when using a mare or he-mare.
Of course, this is a small sample size and it would be speculative at best to extrapolate how this projects. One must also consider there is a degree of luck in winning graded races. Still, it would be interesting if other residencies looked into their results (if they track their graded winners) and see what their own trends are. For me, I find the tremendous success of Galileo mares illuminating along with a Danzig DS ability that stretches among many sire options.