Jun 212019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  2 time winner Golden Temptress bolted out of the gate but was joined at the front by Livincal and Big Band Channel, setting a solid pace in the 7f race.  Those three stayed out front for a little while, but the pace got to all of them and they dropped off at the halfway point.  From there, All We Hear Is took over the lead, but that lead was short lived, as No Nay Spirit came with a big move from the middle of the pack.  No Nay Spirit ($14.40) grabbed the lead in the stretch and pulled away, drawing off to win by 1-1/2 lengths with an 82 SP.  All We Can Hear managed to narrowly hang on for second, just edging out Damardal.

I’m not sure why, but it seems that since the Future Stars Series has switched to 2yos, it has found that the best 2yo fields are fillies.  I’ve got some theories on this (is there something amiss in my code?  Is it that there are fewer filly-only races, so the fields are larger?  Is it really just coincidence?).  But the result is that, for the 4th week in a row, we stick with the fairer sex.  We stay in Berkshire, England this week, where 11 fillies try to tackle 7 furlongs on the turf in an Allowance race.  The field is:

#1 – Cathedral Cove (Sir Percy (GB) x Continuity Sioux [High Chaparral (IRE) x Pivotal]) – Owned by drivelhead002 – 12/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $24,456

Capsule: Cathedral Cove debuted in a Local MSW on February 24 at 6f on the turf, and at 13/1 odds she stalked the pace early and got up late, sneaking into the lead to win by a head with a 67 SP.  She came back 2 months later in a NW2L at 6.5f and stalked the pace again, but faltered a little late and settled for 5th, though she was only 2-1/2 lengths behind the winner, who would come back next time out to run 3rd in a G3.  Cathedral Cove is the 6th foal from 9yo mare Continuity Sioux, a winner of 1 of her 13 career races.  That win came at 7f on the turf, though she put up some decent allowance runs at distances as long as 9f before moving to the claiming ranks and then retiring.  Her first couple of foals had talent on the track, as both were stakes placed, one in long distance turf races, and one in turf sprints (including a 3rd place finish in a 7f-T G2).  Unfortunately, none of the next 4 siblings of Cathedral Cove have done anything on the track, all spending most of their time in the claiming ranks and rarely finding the winner’s circle.  Cathedral Cove’s sire, Sir Percy ($7,000), was the winner of the 2006 Epsom Derby at 12f-T and was the #95 ranked EU sire in 2018.  The sim hasn’t had much interest in him as a sire though, as he’s a bargain price and his 2018 crop consists of his standard 15 runners.  Only 5 of those have won, leaving him currently ranked #1,886 for the year.  Overall, his horses are largely turf runners that like to run long (69% of earnings on turf, 61% in routes), possibly explaining the low winning percentage (especially compared to earlier years), which is in line with both Sir Percy’s actual running style and his real world 10.09 AWD. There is one other sim horse with the similar Sir Percy x High Chaparral bloodlines, but he has only 1 win in 11 starts.  Cathedral Cove (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.00) is bred for long distance running, so extra distance should help here, but she might need to take a step forward from her last race to compete here.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Lingering Drama (Odyssey Moon x Isolationism [Shamardal x Halo]) – Owned by redsleeps – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $16,860

Capsule: Lingering Drama debuted on May 15 in a 6f-T MSW, and after breaking towards the back of the field early, she moved late and under a strong urging by her jockey, she got up to win by a neck, earning a 70 SP.  Lingering Moon is the daughter of Odyssey Moon, and is the 8th foal from 15yo mare Isolationism.  Isolationism wasn’t much on the race course, with only 2 wins in 21 career starts, having spent most of her career on the dirt.  None of her foals have achieved all that much success either, though 3 are allowance-level winners, with all of her foals seeming to prefer turf over dirt.  Interestingly, her 3yo foal Everybodywantssome (Sulamani (IRE)) has yet to make his debut.  Odyssey Moon ($8800) was a G3-winning turf sprinter in Australia in 2017, and he entered stud in 2018 so his first foals have not yet reached the real track.  In the sim, his debut 2018 crop currently ranks #354 overall, with 44 runners and 21 winners to date.  One of those horses, Moonlight Well, is a 3-time stakes winner, ranging from 5.5f to 8f (all on turf).  His sim foals have raced almost entirely on turf (he only has 1 dirt winner thus far), and although it’s too early to tell exactly what his best sim distance would be, the fact that he was a sprinter in real life makes it seem likely that his foals will prefer sprinting once we get enough data. The second-year sire has been sent to a Shamardal mare 5 times already, with the 4 that have hit the track all having broken their maidens in turf sprints.  Lingering Drama’s (DI: 1.67, CD: 0.42) pedigree, however, suggests that she might prefer slightly longer races.  We’ll see if she can move forward as she stretches out a bit more today.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – Vestida De Fiesta (Oasis Dream (GB) x Came Curlin [Camelot (GB) x Curlin]) – Owned by cavieres – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $45,422

Capsule: It took a few tries for Vestida De Fiesta to break her maiden, but she made a big jump in her 3rd career race on May 16 to do it.  In that 6.5f MSW, she was part of the pace duel early, but put away the other pacesetters late and opened up to win by 1 length at 13/1, earning a 77 SP.  Vestida De Fiesta is by Oasis Dream, out of 5yo mare Came Curlin.  Oasis Dream ($30,000), the 2002 champion 2yo in England and the #28 ranked European sire in 2018, was a multiple-G1 winning sprinter in his career.  His 2018 sim crop is a little better, as it currently ranks #16 overall, with 106 winners from 158 runners.  Among those are 6 graded stakes winners (half of his 13 total stakes winners), mostly in turf miles; his 2019 crop already includes 1 turf sprinting stakes winner as well, as that crop is currently ranked #14 overall (27 winners from 59 runners).  His sim foals heavily prefer turf, with 82% of earnings coming on the sod, but they are pretty evenly split distance-wise, (52% of earnings are in routes, but 55% of the wins are in sprints).  Vestida De Fiesta is Came Curlin’s first foal.  Came Curlin wasn’t much on the track, with just 2 wins in 30 career starts, both coming in back-to-back races on the dirt at the claiming level (a $20K MCL at 6f and a $100K NW2L Claimer at 8.5f).  Vestida De Fiesta (DI: 1.09, CD: 0.08) is bred to run long, so she should like the additional ½ furlong here, and with the improvements she’s shown in each race thus far, she stands a strong chance here.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Royal Status (Wootton Bassett (GB) x Gone In Sixty [Medaglia D’Oro x Spinning World]) – Owned by riversdale – 10/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $21,360

Capsule: Royal Status debuted in a 5f-T Local MSW on April 2 and dropped to the back early but came with a late move, finishing just 1-3/4 lengths short in 3rd.  So for her second start, at 6f-T on May 13, she was put closer to the front, only 1-1/2 lengths off early, and she repeated that same late move, this time pulling away to win by 1-1/2 as the 4/1 second choice and earning a 70 SP.  Royal Status is the first foal from 10yo mare Gone In Sixty, who was sent to French sire Wootton Bassett.  Gone In Sixty wasn’t all that successful on the track, as she won only 2 of her 21 career races (both in the 8.5f-9f dirt range), though she ran pretty consistently throughout her career.  Wootton Bassett ($40,000) was a G1 winner at 7f on the turf during his racing days, and he was the #75 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop is his best to date, as players finally realized that he might have some talent, and the crop currently ranks #95 overall, with 65 winners from 94 runners (those 94 runners are more than his previous 4 years combined).  Only one of those has found stakes success, as a turf sprinter (only Wootton Bassett’s 2nd sim stakes winner overall).  Turf sprinting is where his sim foals find most of their luck (68% of earnings on turf, 67% in sprints), though his real life AWD of 8.31 suggests that he might be better suited to throwing milers.  Royal Status (DI: 1.91, CD: 0.44) looks like she might like a slightly longer race than today’s, but adding an extra furlong should be good for her and it wouldn’t be much of a shock to see her improve and finish strong.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Ravn Views (Global View x Ms Ravina [Mr. Greeley x Smile]) – Owned by deeprock – 27/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $21,232

Capsule: After a failed dirt effort in her debut, Ravn Views switched to the turf and took a SAF-local MSW at 5.5f in her 2nd start on April 13, sitting just off the pace and then propelling to victory at 18/1, winning by 1 length with a 61 SP.  Her SP improved slightly in her most recent start, a NW2L at 6f, to a 65 SP but she was unable to put a run together and finished 6th, beaten almost 5 lengths.  Ravn Views is the 7th foal from 13yo mare Ms Ravina, by Global View.  Global View, a son of Galileo, was a G2 winner at 8.5f on the turf during his racing career, and currently stands in South Africa where his first foals are yearlings in 2019.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #563 overall, with 18 winners from 41 runners, but while the numbers are low, they do include Darkquick, winner of The Hogwarts-G2 (11f-T), as well as a 3yo gelding with a stakes record of 7:1-6-0, all at 5-5.5f on the turf.  Global View’s sim foals thus far have a strong turf sprinting preference, with 68% of earnings on turf and 71% in sprints.  Ms Ravina earned the only win of her 13 race career in a $15K maiden claimer at 5f on the dirt.  Her other foals have not been too successful either, with only 5 combined wins among all of Ravn Views’ siblings; 4 of those 5 coming in turf sprints.  Ravn Views (DI: 1.00; CD: 0.17) pedigree suggests that she might like longer races, but she seems like she might be up against it today.

Watch Level: Low

#6 – Primetime Kameha (King Kamehameha x Primetime Dansil [Dansili (GB) x Daylami (IRE)]) – Owned by ss89 – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $39,795

Capsule: Primetime Kameha broke her maiden at first asking on March 9, when she took on a field of 12 in a 6f MSW.  There, she dueled for the lead early, grabbed it in the far turn, and drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 68 SP.  Her second start was a 2-horse race, as Primetime Kameha dueled the pacesetter the entire way around but came up on the short end of the stick, finishing 2nd by 1 length with a 69 SP (though that rival came back to run 2nd in a turf stakes in her next race).  Primetime Kameha is by King Kamehameha, and is the 2nd foal from 6yo mare Primetime Dansil.  Primetime Dansil was a stellar race horse, and parlayed her win in the 2015 Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf-G1 (8f-T) and 2 other turf mile graded stakes wins into the 2015 2yo Turf Filly Sim Eclipse Award.  After retiring at the end of 2018, she foaled her first foal, by Frankel, who made a decent run last time out at 10.5f-T but is 0 for 4 lifetime.  King Kamehameha, the #2 ranked Japanese sire in 2018, was the champion Japanese 3yo in 2004 who won graded stakes anywhere from 8-12f on the turf.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #54 overall, with 74 winners from 110 runners, including 4 stakes winners (3 of those graded stakes winners – 2 at 8f-T, 1 at 6f-T).  His sim foals are largely turf routers (79% of earnings on turf, 77% in routes).  The King Kamehameha x Dansili cross has been used in the sim 12 times in the past 5 years, producing 10 winners, mostly in turf routes, including 1 stakes winner and 3 stakes-placed horses, all in turf routes.  Much like those others, Primetime Kameha (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.20) is bred to run longer distances, so 7f shouldn’t be a problem here.  She just hopes that she has some of her mother’s talent on the track.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Marylebone (Galileo (IRE) x Inner City Lunacy [City Zip x Bernardini]) – Owned by drivel1 – 9/2

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Marylebone went off as the 7/2 favorite in her debut on April 4 and didn’t disappoint, breaking on top of the field of 12 in a 6.5f turf MSW in Berkshire-ENG and never looking back.  She opened up as many as 3 lengths before gearing down and coasting to a 1-1/2 length victory, earning a 68 SP.  Marylebone is the first foal of 5yo mare Inner City Lunacy.  Inner City Lunacy was a G3-winning turf miler (and she was a head away from winning the 2017 The Irish 1000 Guineas-G1 (8f-T)) who won 9 of her 20 career races, including 4 dirt miles and 5 turf miles.  Marylebone’s sire, Galileo, doesn’t need much of an introduction, as he’s one of the world’s top sires and was the #2 ranked EU sire in 2018 (with an AWD of 10.31).  That top class nature covers the sim as well, as his 2018 class currently ranks #18 overall, with 208 runners and 137 winners.  Of those, 10 have earned stakes wins and 2 have graded stakes wins thus far, but those numbers will likely continue to rise, as Galileo’s sim foals, much like his real life foals, love longer distances (79% of earnings on turf, 78% in routes).  Much like the other foals, Marylebone (DI: 0.90, CD: 0.10) should improve with added distance, and although this distance might still be too short for her, she just toyed with the field in her first race so it’s unclear how good this filly could become.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Crying Allure (Gold Allure x Arusha Accord [Street Cry x Sadler’s Wells]) – Owned by astinator7 – 7/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $49,456

Capsule: Crying Allure has narrowly set the pace in each of her first 3 races.  In her debut on February 22 at 6f-T, she tired and finished 4th.  In her 2nd race, she looked stronger but was outrun to the finish and ran 2nd.  In her 3rd race, she finally held on, taking the 6.5f-T MSW by ¾ length with a 72 SP.  Crying Allure is by Gold Allure, out of stakes-winning 11yo mare Arusha Accord.  Gold Allure, the #8 Japanese sire in 2018, sadly passed away in 2017 but was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (mainly in the 10f range).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #634, with 19 winners from 29 runners (no stakes winners).  His sim foals are pretty evenly split in distance and surface based on earnings, though that’s skewed by the 5-time graded stakes-winning turf router Silver Way. By the numbers, Gold Allure’s sim foals tend to favor sprinting (with a very slight edge to the dirt).  Arusha Record, the dame of Crying Allure, won 16 of her 42 career races, all on the turf, with her best result coming in a 6.5f turf stakes that she won by 2 lengths.  She hasn’t quite passed down that talent to her first 4 foals, however.  None of the 3 have won a race at the allowance level, with all of their wins coming on the turf (some in routes, some in sprints).  The Gold Allure x Street Cry cross has been used 8 times in the past 5 years, producing 7 winners who are mostly sprinters, including 1 graded stakes winning turf sprinter.  Although the cross has produced some sprinters, Crying Allure’s pedigree (DI: 1.32, CD: 0.36) suggests that she might like longer racing.  Look for her to go for the lead again here and try to hang on late.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Otto Seattle (Dubawi (IRE) x Benaroya Hall [Smart Strike x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by merrychristmas – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: The sponsor of this race, Otto Seattle had an excellent debut on May 8, when she took on a full field of 14 in a 6.5f-T MSW here in Berkshire as the 4/1 favorite.  In that race, she sat midpack early and at first looked to be in trouble, but she turned it on at the halfway point and caught the pacesetter that had gotten loose, winning by ¾ length (it was another 3 lengths back to 3rd) and earning a 73 SP.  The 3rd place horse in that race came back to break her maiden next time out, so that maiden race is looking pretty strong.  Otto Seattle is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Benaroya Hall, and the 2nd of those to be sent to Dubawi.  Benaroya Hall was a good runner on the track, with 7 wins in 22 career starts, coming almost exclusively in dirt routes (mainly the 9f-10f range), though she showed strong abilities on the turf as well.  Although she never picked up a stakes victory, she was 2-time stakes placed, with both of those coming in turf routes.  Otto Seattle is the full sister to 3yo filly Otto Benny (Dubawi), the 2nd foal from Benaroya Hall, who is currently the #18 ranked 3yo turf filly router and is multiple graded stakes placed at 8f on the turf, including a 2nd place finish in the 2018 Filly Grand Prix-G1 (8f-T) (she ran 7th in the Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf).  Dubawi ($250,000) in general is an excellent sire, as he was the #1 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop isn’t quite as strong, but is still solid, ranking #21 overall, with 105 winners from 167 runners, and the crop gets better as the distances get longer.  Thus far, two of those horses have found graded stakes victories, both in turf miles, and he has 7 other stakes winners in the crop to date; in fact, a ridiculous 42% of all sim Dubawi foals that have raced in a turf route stakes in the past 5 years have won.  Dubawi’s sim foals are primarily turf routers, with 71% of earnings on turf and 78% in routes, which goes a bit against his real life AWD of 8.76, though he’s still a route sire (his sim AWD is 8.93).  By stretching out to 7f here, Otto Seattle (DI: 2.43, CD: 0.67) looks to be reaching her peak distance, and I would expect her to acquaint herself to this class of horses very well.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Bony Day (New Year’s Day x Distortabone [Distorted Humor x Interrex (CAN)]) – Owned by sixesplus – 31/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-2; $20,170

Capsule: Bony Day began her career in a 4.5f hot MSW on dirt, where she ran a closing 3rd of 5, but the winner of that race, Extreme Seeker, is 4 for 4 in her career, and is currently the #1 ranked 2yo turf filly, as she has a G2 win on turf and a G3 win on dirt.  After 1 more 3rd place effort, Bony Day switched to turf and broke her maiden on May 11 in a 5.5f turf MSW, where the 12/1 shot sat towards the back of the 8 horse field early and came on late, getting up to win by 1 length and earning a 63 SP.  Bony Day is by New Year’s Day out of 20yo mare Distortabone.  Distortabone only ran twice in her career, finishing up the track both times, but she has proven to be a capable sim broodmare.  Of her previous 10 foals, one is a G3 winning (and 4-time stakes winning) turf sprinter, and another is a 2-time stakes winning turf sprinter (and G3-placed at 8f).  Most of her foals have preferred sprinting, while there seems to be a split between turf and dirt.  New Year’s Day, meanwhile, was the winner of the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and seems to have passed that on to his sim foals, who show a slight preference for dirt over turf (53% of earnings on dirt), though they have been more likely to be sprinters (59% in sprints).  New Year’s Day moved to Brazil in 2019, but previously stood in Kentucky and although his first two crops did not crack the US rankings, he is currently ranked #72 in the US in 2019, mainly as a result of his “crossing the line in the Kentucky Derby first” colt, Maximum Security.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #438, with 14 winners from 27 runners, though only 1 has found a stakes placing yet (at a turf mile).  The speed figures to date may be a little lower than the top here, but Bony Day (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.83) looks like she likes sprinting and is headed in the right direction.

Watch Level: Medium

#11Lope Cartoon (Lope De Vega x Invincible Lonhro (Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Theatrical) – Owned by harrylan4 – 5/1

Race Record: 2:2-0-0; $36,360

Capsule: Lope Cartoon enters this race as the only multiple winner in the field.  After stalking the pace in her debut at 6f-T on March 29, she came on late and drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths, giving the 5/2 favorite a 72 SP for the win, and she repeated last time out in a Local NW2L allowance, winning by 2 lengths with a 69 SP.  Lope Cartoon is by Lope De Vega ($80,000), the #13 ranked EU sire in 2018.  Lope De Vega’s 2018 sim crop hasn’t quite caught up to the real life sire, as they currently ranking #168 overall, with 79 runners and 48 winners, 3 of those scoring at the stakes level.  His sim foals show a strong preference for the turf (76% of earnings on turf), but are pretty middle-ground when it comes to distances, which makes sense given Lope De Vega’s real life AWD of 8.04 (though on the numbers, there is a slight preference in the sim for sprinting, as 53% of his foals wins have come in sprints and his sim AWD is 7.53).  Lope Cartoon is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Invincible Lonhro, who won 3 of her 18 career races, all in the 9.5-10.5f range with most of her success coming on turf.  Her first foal didn’t do much in her 11 race career, but her second foal is 2 for 7 to date, looking like a solid turf sprinter.  The Lope De Vega x Invincible Spirit has been pretty successful, with 7 of the 8 foals finding the winner’s circle (5 at the allowance level), all on the turf, and 1 stakes winning turf sprinter among the group.  Lope Cartoon (DI: 1.29, CD: 0.13) looks to be bred for longer distances, but as the only horse in this field who has proven that she can beat winners, she’s got a decent chance today.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field of 11.  Honestly, this one seems wide open – I think any of these horses has a shot.  So, with that, I’m gonna go with: (1) Otto Seattle; (2) Lope Cartoon; (3) Lingering Drama.  Good luck!

Other Races to watch this weekend:

1)      Minnesota – Allowance @ 7f (Fillies)

2)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T

3)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7f (Fillies)

4)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 7f

5)      Newmarket (ENG) – Alw NW2L @ 5.5f-T

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  3 Responses to “Future Stars Series – 11 Fillies Try 7 Furlongs On The Berkshire Turf”

  1. Great article! Really enjoy reading through these. Thank you :)

  2. Another excellent article!

  3. I hope your picks are wrong, since i own #6 Primetime Kameha..LOL…Really though, great write up and thank you so much for investing so much time into the sim. I’ve been here since 2000 and absolutely love it. Thanks again..