Jul 132019
 

We are now over halfway through the year and getting a very good idea of the value of the second crop sires in the northern hemisphere. The analysis is based on cumulative graded stakes horses to date. The cut off point being three performers at this level. There are currently 11 sires that meet the criteria and in truth are likely to be the ones with long term potential as stallions. It is fair to say even within this subset grouping several are far more negative looking than positive in outlook.

KINGMAN with 10 graded stakes horses he is the crop leader. As 3yo’s his offspring have come into their own. He is also doing well with his current 2yo’s. In 2019 he is the leader or joint leader in numbers in all categories of black type horses. There are a lot more winners to come as well. He is already a serious stallion and support in terms of mare quality has already risen. It will be a major shock if he is not a top 5 sire in the world in the next 5 years. He is also an ideal sim sire given his offspring improve with age. They will be better at 4 as well and excel at 8f-12f. He can get speedy types from quick mares what he passes is ability and his acceleration over 1f during a race something in turf horses that is of the utmost important in winning races. Highly likely to upgraded going forward in the sim for several years to come.

NO NAY NEVER he had an amazing year last year but has not reached the heights this term. It felt like last year was a perfect storm that would not be repeated. A very hot summer and ground that suited his offspring not others, Coolmore first year sire frenzy (think Fasliyev) and very mature 2yo’s who would not train on. This year he sits at number three on the list and his 2yo’s again lead the way. The 3yo’s in the most cases regressing in form. It would appear he is a sire who produces horses in his image which is good news except if you are playing the sim where 2yo racing is a limited product and offers little value for your breeding points or credits. If you want fast maturing horses that hardly sat beyond 6f this sire is a good choice though at his inflated fee due to be mentioned in the sim sire upgrade lists offers dreadful long, term value for money. He should be avoided at all costs. Liable to downgrades going forward.

AUSTRALIA, he has the highest winning average distance of all sires here at 9.35f. This usually suggests slow maturing horses. That would be no surprise at all. He was given plenty of chances by Coolmore the worry as with all Coolmore sires is how they feel about him going forward. A look at the Coolmore 2yo’s suggest they have great faith in Camelot. You can see long term him ending up as a national hunt sire. He though will offer good sim horses as they will mature slowly take racing like his own dam and stay well. The jury is out at this point.

WILL TAKE CHARGE amazingly for a sire with 5 graded horses he has no graded winners. Though when you see one was beaten over 20 lengths to gain a graded place it does help understand the figures. Though that is good trainer placement. He has a low level of starters compared to the other sires on the list. Is this a reflection of his sire line or late development only time will tell. The fact his offspring average winning distance is over 7f’s is not good news for most of the daily fodder which is on offer in US racing. It would be no surprise to see him sold to Turkey or South Korea of limited long-term appeal.

JUST A WAY He has several graded horses but only one listed winner. His results are under whelming at present, but it could be his offspring will take a long time to mature like he did as he appears not to be a stallion that passes on lots of stamina his sim value is limited. You cannot see him being in favour for too much longer in Japan a sire to avoid at present.

OYLIMPIC GLORY everything is going well here this year he is second on the list of graded stakes runners this year and has a grade 1 winner and placed horse. That horse should have won the French Oaks and is another grade 1 winner waiting to happen. The offspring here have improved greatly for age and are usually good physicals as well. They are ideal in distance requirements 8-10f. Already they are showing a liking to Galileo mares another massive positive. It should surprise nobody he is doing well given his real-life racing record. A sire worth investing in especially at current prices.

SEA THE MOON he is becoming a hard sire to read. The obvious stand out point is given his pedigree and the fact many of his offspring run in Germany he does not posses the highest average winning distance of the sires on the list. Is this a long-term trend or a reflection that his best runners are not mature enough to do themselves justice? He is very much a watching brief at this stage but is performing to a level you would expect on paper in terms of a black type strike rate. He is therefore a decent sire to use as a benchmark when considering if you are getting value for your sim investment.

CAIRO PRINCE he was the one the agents latched onto with his first yearlings. On the track he is pretty much the best US based 2nd crop sire with ten stakes horses three graded horses and is joint top with two graded winners. This from a perspective of a sim player is good news as it means we can look at sales results and hopefully pick the sire with the most upside potential. This is done by comparing sales result averages against stud fees in simple terms. He looks a sire with a future. Those results at the sales resulted in better quality mares visiting him. He is no superstar but worth using though dirt sires come at a premium in price due to player demographics.

CHARM SPIRIT the results so far have been somewhat short of that expected. The fact he switches between studs in England and France is never a good start. He is also throwing somewhat strange results he himself a miler out of a Montjeu mare would have been expected to sire horses that wanted at least a mile. At present his AWD is 6.99 which is very low for a European sire especially one who has many runners in France. You would have to expect a sim downgrade coming his way.
TORONADO he has a few graded runners but no winners. The results are not great. That is really no surprise given his sire and his own multiple breathing operations. His sire’s other top runner So You Think also required breathing operations and his results in Europe at least were pathetic. He was given better chances than his stud mate Olympic Glory and has failed. One to avoid at all costs.

GREGORIAN is a sire punching above his weight, his percentages of black type horses, winners and graded winners are good especially given the mare quality he had. His AWD7.07 is somewhat spooky given he was a 7f specialist it suggests his stock are in his image. His own sire has always done better than you would think he is following that path. He has thrown sim stakes winners in the sim and given the right ammunition can still do so offers great value at a cheap price.
There are two other sires that offer value going forward and are worth keeping on the right side off.

GOLDENCENTS he just misses the list but has ten stakes horses and two graded stakes winners. They do seem to be able to run at sprint distances and are improving with age. His own sire continues to show improved real-life statistics. He is cheap for a dirt sire in the game currently on offer at less than 120bp. He has no graded stakes winners but obviously capable of getting them and likely to get a positive tweak for 2020 even if not mentioned that makes him worthy of investment.

KUROSHIO this guy would be in the skids at present and with only 19 foals bred to cheap mares rightly so. Then they ran four have earned black type, two have been graded placed and one a graded winner. He leads second crop sires by percentage in the categories. A deal was done to bring him back to Europe and he covered a lot of mares of better quality. Expect to see better results when they hit the track in a few years. At 10points he is worth buying as likely to be upgraded next year. It is worth the risk at such a low outlay. Make sure you breed to turf sprinting mares.

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  5 Responses to “SECOND CROP SIRES HALFWAY REPORT AND THE KING HAS RISEN TO A GOLD MEDAL”

  1. Australia is a good sire no question. The problem for him at Coolmore is that he is by Galileo so he is misses out on the majority of their best mares because they’re either Galileos or Sadlers Wells line

    • The problem you have is a good sire with a high stamina index will cover about 50 mares at €20k. Switched to the National Hunt division he will cover 250 mares at €8k. The maths speak volumes to any commercial business.

  2. Goldencents should emerge as the leader of this crop over the next few years in the US. It’s hard to see Australia not getting plenty more chances though. Galileo x Ouija Board is hard not to like, and he was a good runner so it’s not just a pretty pedigree. The win early and often mentality is going to be the downfall of the breed if there is not a course correction and efforts made to thin out all the Native Dancer influences we see in modern horses. The US could do itself a favor by importing mares from Japan and Germany to bring in some durability and stamina. Sunday Silence was a huge missed opportunity for US breeders. That’s a soap box for another day though.

    • it’s been my dream (or one of them), for awhile now, to import a mare from Germany and breed a mare whose 2nd generation produces a Classic winner. Tough to avoid 4 crosses of Native Dancer in 6 generations of any NA thoroughbred these days.

  3. I can’t really defend any of the Amerian second-crop stallions it looks like a fairly forgettable group. I’m not sure I would even want free shares from this collection.

    Worldwide, Kingman is the only one who is going to make it. Australia looks like a bad version of Camelot (and he isn’t really all that good except for getting 12f horses).