Jul 212019
 

TRC RANKINGS vs GRADED STAKES SIRES

The process is to look at the correlation between the two sets of data. The aim is to see is it sensible and can we use it as a way of accessing sires from the Southern Hemisphere who appear in the TRC rankings. If the correlation is strong, we can and therefore becomes a great tool to enable Mike to rate the stallions from different parts of the world.

We have a nice cut off point with currently 18 northern hemisphere sires having 5 graded winners or more and 18 sires having the highest points rankings on the combined data list as at 7 July 2019.

The Northern Hemisphere sires are as follows Dubawi (17) Deep Impact, Galileo (13) Frankel (10) Tapit, Curlin (9), Shamardal (8), Candy Ride (7), War Front, Sea The Stars (6), Lord Kanaloa, Stay Gold, Quality Road, Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Le Havre, Invincible Spirit and Kingman (5).

The top 18 from the TRC list Dubawi, Galileo, Frankel, Scat Daddy, Deep Impact, I Am Invincible, Sea The Stars, Street Cry, Teofilo, Curlin, Lord Kanaloa, Quality Road, Kitten’s Joy, Shamardal, Candy Ride, More Than Ready, Not A Single Doubt and Pierro.

On the second list we have three sires who do not cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we have 15 places for the top 18 who do. Of the TRC 15 who stand or stood in the Northern Hemisphere 11 of them make the list above which is a very strong correlation.

The obvious question is what about the other 4 how we can explain them missing the list.

Street Cry in one-word Winx take her outstanding achievements out he would not be a top 100 sire.

Teofilo he has 4 graded stakes winners but if we sorted the list by graded stakes runners, he would be in the top 18. The TRC list is derived from graded stakes top 3 finishes. We can also add to this a good record in Australia as well. Therefore, we have very little difference between the two sets of ratings.

Kitten’s Joy he again like Teofilo is another sire who just misses the cut on the graded stakes winners list. He is a sire that will likely drop down due to three factors. Age older sires tend not to do so well for various reasons. Ownership he has not got the Ramsey mares in such big numbers supporting him all these had been purchased specifically to compliment him and lastly major turf trainers like Chad Brown (regardless of his business ethics) are sourcing more young horses from Europe reducing chances for soft graded wins in 3yo turf racing in North America.

More Than Ready if any sire currently could be described the King of the Shuttle, he is the one. In neither hemisphere is he a superstar but his just short of top class in both. He like Teofilo just misses the cut off on Northern Hemisphere results but combined you can see why they are there on the TRC list. It would be fair to say shuttle stallions are likely to get higher rankings on the TRC list as they have more offspring worldwide. This is the only obvious flaw that would need adjusting for when using the list.

We should now look at the 7 missing sires from the Northern Hemisphere graded stake winners to see why they are not on the list. This number will always be greater due to the top Australian based sires correctly entering TRC calculations.

Kingman his first crop is only 3 now. The TRC rankings are based on a weighted 3 year rolling figure. He is therefore at a serious disadvantage. He does make the top 50 and it would be a major surprise if with 18 months his not in the top 18.

Invincible Spirit, Le Havre and Stay Gold these are 3 stallions just below the elite ratings. They get lots of graded runners but have a low Impact Value rating less than 1. The poor strike rate reduces their rankings on the TRC rating list. All three stallions are ranked between 30-40 which would be a reasonable reflection of their worth and likely sim ranking.

Street Sense is another stallion rated in the 30-40 bracket and has an impact value of slightly over 1 at 1.03. He is let down by the simple fact he has zero grade 1 winners and only 1 grade 1 performer in 2019. He seems to be like the three above a solid stallion who is just below that superstar bracket.

War Front if you look at the TRC rankings you end up thinking why he is he rated so low. He has great percentages of graded stake performers to runners as well. The issue is the type of horses who make up his successful runners 2yo’s many of which do not train on. The nature of 2yo racing is that the form quality is below that of 3yo’s and older horses. As the TRC rating also incorporate Racing Post ratings this has the effect of reducing the overall rating of War Front. This is probably reasonable when reflected in the game ratings given the bias against 2yo racing in the sim.

Tapit the figures are constructed on 3-year weighted averages. Tapit had a terrible season in 2018 with only 2 grade 1 winners which put him outside the top 18 Northern Hemisphere sire and none this year putting him outside the top 58 in terms of topflight winners. His graded stakes winners this year have been of a low-quality rating wise. Therefore, his TRC rating is understandable and justified at number 24 that reflects his worth as a sire currently.

The conclusion is the two lists have strong correlation and as Mike rates sire based on actual real life results you can place reliance on either list. This is helpful comparing sires from different regions. The negatives or rather watch outs when using TRC rankings are sires with one outstanding offspring distorting their overall value, shuttle sires who by number of runners have a greater probability of a higher rating and younger sires with less than 3 crops to race as they lack a full spectrum of results.

The TRC now have a turf and dirt sire list as well as a combined one which depending on your breeding strategy and personal preferences offers extra insight.

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  7 Responses to “random (noise) or systematic (bias)”

  1. you guys can’t help yourselves can you?

  2. I wouldnt put too much weight behind the theory older sires dont do so well

    Galileo and High Chaparral were conceived when Sadler’s Wells was 16 and 17, respectively, followed by Alexandrova (Ire), Ask (Ire) and Listen (Ire) among seven Group 1 winners when he was over 20.

    Similarly, Mr. Prospector produced Kingmambo when he was 19 and Smart Strike and Fusaichi Pegasus when he was 21 and 26. Danzig also conceived War Front and Hard Spun at the age of 24 and 26, to mention just a few.

  3. The main problem with using this list is that not all Grade/Group events are created equal. In general, I feel Mike does an excellent job rating stallions. There may be some who are over-rated like Frankel, but in the grand scheme of things, I feel like the world is well represented. From my experience, it is far easier to get a black-type winner from a 300 or less sire than on turf than dirt. But that may just be because there are far more turf (graded) stakes in the SIM than dirt.

    • Tapit BTW is tied for 1st with Curlin with 9 GSW. He likely will be the #1 sire this year. It’s between him, Quality Road (who is heavily aided by City of Light’s Pegasus win) and Into Mischief. Basically, Tapit is a Travers win for Tacitus away from taking this. To suggest Tapit isn’t elite is again, well, silly and uninformed.

    • Your comments really are worrying to say the least. On one hand you want to count numbers when it suits you and ignore when it does not. Tapit has 9 Frankel has 10 which one is greater number. Frankel has 3 grade 1 winners Tapit has 0. Yet Frankel is over rated by your measures. Simple fact he has a bigger number in both categories from only 62.5% of the starters of Tapit. It is blatantly obvious which horse is the better sire by a long way.

      Elite is how you see things which differs from reality as always. Note the game rates elite (a sires) as the top 75. Therefore saying a sire is about the 25th best stallion operating in the world does not mean he is not elite.

      If you look at the TDN sire lists and see who have either the most black type horses or percentage to runners you only get 5 stallions. Dubawi, Deep Impact, Galileo, Frankel and Farhh. It is no surprise these are therefore the top 4 stallions on TRC ratings. It therefore flows they should be close to the best rated stallions in the game.

      Farhh will never reach the top of any lists due to his very low fertility levels.

      The TRC list removes the bias by using ratings based adjustments to obtain the points score. This way a brilliant grade 3 performance would score higher than a poor grade 1 win is say Peru.

      • Sorry my dude, you use fantasy number to support your biased perspectives. Looking at the worldwide TDN worldwide sire list updated Jully 22nd here are the Top 10 Sires:

        1. Dubawi
        2. Galileo
        3. Quality Road
        4. Tapit
        5. Into Mischief
        6. Helmet
        7. Giant’s Causeway
        8. Shamardal
        9. Curlin
        10. Hard Spun
        …….
        18. Frankel

        Those are the facts. I’m sorry but Frankel just isn’t a top 10 sire no matter how hard you want him to be. He’s busy trying to hold off The Factor (20th) and I’ll Have Another (21st).

        • Only because that sire list defaults to being ranked by total earnings….which seems almost irrelevant. Helmet is in 6th because of one horse. Re-order that list by anything else that is more meaningful and Frankel skyrockets up the list. Not that i really care.