Aug 092019

Sword Swallower Stakes

Saturday, August 10, 2019 — 3:00:00 PM EST
New York - Grade I – Purse : $750,000
12 Furlongs - Firm Turf - Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older

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MINOR INDULGENCE is sired by FRANKEL (GB) x KINGMAMBO and is running for the canyongait stable.  MINOR INDULGENCE has won in 5 times in 13 starts for a 38% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 115.5 (6)
12 Month Average Speed: 112.8 (1)
12 Month Form: 33372

MINOR INDULGENCE ended 2018 on fire with five victories in his last six outings, starting with breaking his maiden and ending with a win in his first graded run.  MINOR INDULGENCE has yet to win so far in 2019 through five races, however he has far from failed as all have been in graded stakes and he has only finished outside the top three on one occasion.  MINOR INDULGENCE has been a model of consistency, and although the other ‘favourites’ have posted higher top speeds, none have been as steady.  Expect to see MINOR INDULGENCE hold up his streak of finishing among the front when this field comes across the finish line.


LIGHT CONNECTION is sired by STAY GOLD (JPN) x FANTASTIC LIGHT and is running for the cygnusx stable.  LIGHT CONNECTION has won in 9 times in 23 starts for a 39% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 115.4 (8)
12 Month Average Speed: 110.6 (4)
12 Month Form: 21858

LIGHT CONNECTION came out first in three Graded Stakes races in her 2018 campaign, all coming at 9 and 10 furlongs against other fillies and mares.  In 2019 it looks like her trainer has decided to test her against the boys, as four of her five starts have been in the open class, which started off with a 2nd place finish in an open G1 stakes race and a 1st place finish in a 12F open stakes race.  However she has struggled to find form since the ‘Sunny Desert Classic’ in February.  If she can find her peak form again she should have a solid shot at coming out in front, however if not it might be time to move her back to the the filly and mares restricted circuit to regain her form.

Post 3 – HOT AND HERMAN – 7/1

HOT AND HERMAN is sired by ADELAIDE (IRE) x ROCK OF GIBRALTAR and is running for the avasheen stable.  HOT AND HERMAN has won in 6 times in 15 starts for a 40% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 118.2 (2)
12 Month Average Speed: 111.1 (3)
12 Month Form: 11816

HOT AND HERMAN has jumped straight from the allowance ranks into the graded stakes, and hasn’t looked back.  After a 2nd and 1st place finish in a NW4L allowance field to start 2019, HOT AND HERMAN jumped right up to take home the victory in two of four graded starts.  HOT AND HERMAN brings in the 2nd highest YTD speed figure and will be a favourite to close out another graded victory.

Post 4 – ABSOLUTE BEAST – 12/1

ABSOLUTE BEAST is sired by HONOR CODE x AWESOME AGAIN and is running for the desimster2 stable.  ABSOLUTE BEAST has won in 5 times in 13 starts for a 38% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 113.0 (13)
12 Month Average Speed: 107.9 (8)
12 Month Form: 22111

ABSOLUTE BEAST has been an ABSOLUTE BEAST the last 13 months, posting five 1st place finished and four 2nd place finishes in his last 9 races since breaking his maiden in July 2018.  ABSOLUTE BEAST is also coming in on a three race win streak including an epic close in his Graded debut last month where he came from 12 lengths back to pull away by almost three lengths at the finish line.  ABSOLUTE BEAST will need to improve on his career best speed if he is to continue his winning streak, but this field should be the toughest he has faced and we will see whether he has any more speed left in the tank.

Post 5 – PROJECT SPACE – 6/1

PROJECT SPACE is sired by SEA THE STARS x AWESOME AGAIN and is running for the muninn240 stable.  PROJECT SPACE has won in 6 times in 21 starts for a 29% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 117.7 (4)
12 Month Average Speed: 112 (2)
12 Month Form: 17301

PROJECT SPACE will be coming in off a strong closing stakes victory in his last outing, in what appears to have been a warm-up for his graded return after a three month rest on the farm.  PROJECT SPACE may have needed a little time off after faltering in his last G1 outing where he set up for a deep close but didn’t fire as he usually does, and if the victory in his return was a sign of what is to come, PROJECT SPACE should be a contender in this field.  His last graded victory was a year ago in the ‘Shimko Classic’ (G2) where he came from 18 lengths back of the leaders at the halfway point to blaze ahead to a 5 length victory.

Post 6 – STAR WRITER – 13/1

STAR WRITER is sired by SEA THE STARS x THEATRICAL and is running for the cgk2 stable.  STAR WRITER has won in 5 times in 15 starts for a 33% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 115.0 (9)
12 Month Average Speed: 106.1 (11)
12 Month Form: 11165

STAR WRITER is two races off since breaking out to a victory in his Graded debut at the ‘San Juan Invitational’ (G2) where he closed hard to come out with a 5 length victory.  He’s finished 5th and 6th since that run and will be looking to get back to the winners circle again.  An interesting note with regards to STAR WRITER is that his jockeys seem to have trouble deciding where to place him in the pack, with half his runs sitting just off the pace, and the other half sitting towards the back of the pack and closing hard.  His best finishes have been when he saves his energy for a deep close, which is a similar style to most of the favourites in this field, I’m interested to see what style jockey ‘B Child’ uses as he rode STAR WRITER to his G2 victory with a deep close back in April.

Post 7 – DOLLY’S BOY – 17/1

DOLLY’S BOY is sired by SHAMARDAL x DEEP IMPACT and is running for the wispa3 stable.  DOLLY’S BOY has won in 9 times in 29 starts for a 31% win rate and is a long shot in todays race, likely to finish towards the back.

12 Month Top Speed: 112.5 (14)
12 Month Average Speed: 92.6 (14)
12 Month Form: 11791

DOLLY’S BOY started 2019 off with a strong run in the ‘John Scott Appreciation Stakes’ (G1) where he held off a late closer to win by a quarter length.  Since that victory DOLLY’S BOY has come up cold in his last two Graded runs, finishing well off the pace.  An odd trend to look for with DOLLY’S BOY is that he was sent to a warm-up ‘hot race’ just prior to his 2019 graded debut (and victory) and he has been sent out to another ‘hot race’ as a warm-up prior to this race, it will be interesting to see if this light warm-up is what DOLLY’S BOY needed to reset back to top form.

Post 8 – RADELAIDE – 10/1

RADELAIDE is sired by ADELAIDE (IRE) x MONSUN and is running for the croissant stable.  RADELAIDE has won in 7 times in 25 starts for a 28% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 116.5 (5)
12 Month Average Speed: 107.2 (9)
12 Month Form: 15530

RADELAIDE moved up to the open stakes class at the end of the 2018 season, coming second in his fist stakes run before putting up a career high speed in his first stakes win to start the 2019 season.  After this stakes win, RADELAIDE was moved up to the Graded Stakes circuit where he has been placing towards the top of the mid pack.  His speed figures have been consistent at his peak prior to his stakes victory, and his owners have to be hoping that he can find the spark that fired when he pulled off his 116.5 speed victory to start the season.  Odds makers have RADELAIDE set to finish mid pack again, however he has shown he has what it takes to come out among the leaders if he regains his top form.

Post 9 – FROSTED TRIX – 8/1

FROSTED TRIX is sired by FROSTED x KING KAMEHAMEHA and is running for the aalex311 stable.  FROSTED TRIX has won in 6 times in 18 starts for a 33% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 117.9 (3)
12 Month Average Speed: 109.5 (6)
12 Month Form: 22151

FROSTED TRIX has carried a strong finish to his 2018 campaign into the 2019 season, where he finished with a 1st place ALW run followed up with a 2nd place stakes run (his best finish at that time).  This has lead into a 2019 season where a 5th place finish in his Graded debut is his only finish out of the top two, as well as having followed that up with a 1st place finish at the ‘Stars and Bars’ (G2) in his second graded run.  Although most jockey’s have put FROSTED TRIX into a closing position out of the gate, jockey ‘C Newberry’ rode FROSTED TRIX to victory sitting just off the lead in a race where FROSTED TRIX put up his second highest SP figure.  This field lacks a true front runner, and this may be a perfect chance for ‘Newberry’ to send FROSTED TRIX to the early lead and test whether he can hold on as this field is heavy in closers.

Post 10 – MONTFLUG – 12/1

MONTFLUG is sired by ADLERFLUG x MONTJEU and is running for the mlafort1 stable.  MONTFLUG has won in 5 times in 18 starts for a 28% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 115.5 (6)
12 Month Average Speed: 106.4 (10)
12 Month Form: 32112

MONTFLUG was recently promoted from the ‘mlafort3′ barn to the elite ‘mlafort1′ stable after two top three finishes to end his 2019 campaign.  MONTFLUG showed his appreciation to the enhanced amenities by kicking off 2019 with his first stakes win and then his first graded victory.  In hist past races he has been carefully placed in lighter fields, this will be his first full 14 horse field and MONTFLUG will be tested to see how he reacts to the additional congestion.  He may just decide to shoot for the lead early and leave the rest of the pack to try and close on him as he did in his 2019 debut where he took the field wire to wire in a 16 furlong route.

Post 11 – DIRE WARNING – 8/1

DIRE WARNING is sired by DUBAWI (IRE) x FRANKEL (GB) and is running for the gattaca stable.  DIRE WARNING has won in 8 times in 17 starts for a 47% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 114.1 (11)
12 Month Average Speed: 109.9 (5)
12 Month Form: 61062

DIRE WARNING has shown up for pulled together for four career stakes victories, three of which were graded stakes races plus a second place finish in his last graded stakes race.  Since making the jump to graded stakes, DIRE WARNING has either come out either in the victory circle or well back from the lead, which is a really unique racing history.  He’s either got an extreme hit or miss variance programmed in, or the jockey has been advised to let off if he’s not pulling out for the victory.  If  the later is the case, this might be a tough race for DIRE WARNING as the field is strong and his best may put him outside the top three, in which case he may be pulled back to hold out for the next shot at graded glory.

Post 12 – KONGIHISTAN – 19/1

KONGIHISTAN is sired by JOSHUA TREE x SHAHRASTANI and is running for the brookdale3 stable.  KONGIHISTAN has won in 7 times in 9 starts for a 78% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 114.0 (12)
12 Month Average Speed: 106.0 (12)
12 Month Form: 11121

KONGIHISTAN has had an amazingly successful career, yet to finish outside of the top two with victories in seven of nine starts.  His speed figures are not up to par with the rest of the field, however he has only been improving as he steps up in class including his most recent graded stakes victory at the ‘United Countries Handicap’ (G1).  With a 7-2-0 record after nine races it is very hard to see KONGIHISTAN as a longshot, however he has just taken the jump to the graded stakes class and time is here to prove this is where he belongs.

Post 13 – GUINEAS BINGE – 13/1

GUINEAS BINGE is sired by GALILEO (IRE) x KINGMAMBO and is running for the mtkelite stable.  GUINEAS BINGE has won in 3 times in 19 starts for a 16% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 114.6 (10)
12 Month Average Speed: 105.1 (13)
12 Month Form: 81233

GUINEAS BINGE has been looking to climb back into the graded stakes class, his last graded victory was in April 2018 as a 3yo in the ‘South African Derby’ (G2).  GUINEAS BINGE took a brief break from the stakes races to regroup for the 2019 season, and made a strong showing at the ‘Einstein Stakes’ (G2) where he finished 3rd.  GUINEAS BINGE will be looking to prove he’s ready to stick in the graded class, and if he can repeat his performance from last outing he is well on his way to becoming a regular contender on the graded circuit.

Post 14 – TENGU – 12/1

TENGU is sired by NADEEM (AUS) x SMART STRIKE and is running for the silverstars stable.  TENGU has won in 6 times in 16 starts for a 38% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 118.3 (1)
12 Month Average Speed: 109.2 (7)
12 Month Form: 19815

TENGU has been following the Grade One turf route schedule since early in his 3yo campaing when he broke in with a second place finish at the ‘Japanese Derby’.  Since then he has piled up two G1 victories and has regularly finished in the top five on all but two occasions.  In TENGU’s most recent Grade One victory at the ‘Vicky Derby’ he put up his career best SP figure (118.3) which also holds up as the highest SP posted by this field.  He has struggled to regain this form since leaving the 3yo class, however if he can find his form again he could become a dominant force again.

Beerkeg’s Picks

Holeshot: FROSTED TRIX  (8/1)

Favourite: HOT AND HERMAN  (7/1)

Wildcard: KONGIHISTAN  (19/1)

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  7 Responses to “Top Turf Router’s Meet in New York for Sword Swallower Stakes (G1)”

  1. Congrats to silverstars! Montflug started well but couldn’t quite keep up with the pace.

  2. 12-4-10

  3. With Dollys boy it spent time in the barn, the hot race is when the horse is fat the day it comes out of the barn in order to build fitness, I have tried it twice and have won Grade 1s on both occasions.

  4. Let me know your picks down here in the comments!

    Also, if you’ve got a stakes race you want covered, shoot me a message and I’ll try to cover it if I have time.

  5. Nice write up! Could hardly describe Montflug better myself. Hoping for a big result but anything could happen.