Aug 112019
 

Big Red Stakes

Sunday, August 11, 2019 — 2:50:00 PM EST
Illinois - Grade I – Purse : $750,000
10 Furlongs - Firm Turf - Restricted to 3 Year Olds

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Post 1 – TOMMY MALIBU – 14/1

TOMMY MALIBU is sired by MALIBU MOON x DANZIG and is running for the massatoga14 stable.  TOMMY MALIBU has won in 2 times in 7 starts for a 29% win rate and will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 111.1 (6)
12 Month Average Speed: 88.1 (12)
12 Month Form: 13122

TOMMY MALIBU has taken a few races to find himself, however he has come on strong as he has stretched out and entered the stakes class finishing second place in his stakes and graded stakes debuts.  If TOMMY MALIBU can maintain his jump in speed he will be a staple in the graded stakes circuit.

Post 2 – BUCK IF I KNOW – 9/1

BUCK IF I KNOW is sired by DANSILI (GB) x KINGMAMBO and is running for the fairhaven2 stable.  BUCK IF I KNOW has won in 4 times in 8 starts for a 50% win rate and will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 104.0 (12)
12 Month Average Speed: 93.0 (10)
12 Month Form: 41114

BUCK IF I KNOW had three wins in a row prior to a fourth place finish, including a win in his graded debut when he moved up to 12 furlongs.  With all the success of late for BUCK IF I KNOW, the challenge he will face is to jump up in speed as the rest of the field have been bringing in higher speeds.

Post 3 – HIGHLAND EMPIRE – 9/1

HIGHLAND EMPIRE is sired by HIGHLAND REEL (IRE) x EMPIRE MAKER and is running for the desertdog10 stable.  HIGHLAND EMPIRE has won in 2 times in 6 starts for a 33% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 109.5 (8)
12 Month Average Speed: 97.2 (3)
12 Month Form: 11512

HIGHLAND EMPIRE has had graded success early in his 3yo season, having pulled together for a win and a place in his last two outings.  His last outing also saw him post his highest speed figure yet, which will need to be repeated if he is to contend with the talented field assembled for this Sundays race as the field looks set to push into the mid 110s.

Post 4 – UNLIMITED TALENT – 19/1

UNLIMITED TALENT is sired by DECLARATION OF WAR x SYMBOLI KRIS S and is running for the golfteam7 stable.  UNLIMITED TALENT has won in 1 times in 4 starts for a 25% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 106.3 (10)
12 Month Average Speed: 94.5 (8)
12 Month Form: 12126

UNLIMITED TALENT has had some stakes successes, coming second twice, prior to his jump into the graded stakes tier where he came back from well off of the pace to finish in fifth place.  UNLIMITED TALENT has taken significant steps forward, however he’ll need to take another leap forward in order to solidify himself as a contender in the graded routes.

Post 5 – EL NINO EFFECT – 16/1

EL NINO EFFECT is sired by IFFRAAJ (GB) x SOUVENIR COPY and is running for the posttime stable.  EL NINO EFFECT has won in 2 times in 7 starts for a 29% win rate and will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 107.1 (9)
12 Month Average Speed: 86.1 (13)
12 Month Form: 56111

EL NINO EFFECT is coming in on a three race winning streak, with a stakes and two graded stakes victories.  Coming off two graded victories should make EL NINO EFFECT the favourite, however his speed figures will need a significant improvement to project EL NINO EFFECT to finish with the leaders.

Post 6 – HORN AND IVORY – 6/1

HORN AND IVORY is sired by SHAMARDAL x SADLER’S WELLS and is running for the plano stable.  HORN AND IVORY has won in 3 times in 6 starts for a 50% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 112.6 (3)
12 Month Average Speed: 97.0 (4)
12 Month Form: 11161

HORN AND IVORY has been off to an amazing 3yo season with victories in four of his five races including wining the ‘Colonial Derby’ (G2) in his last outing.  He saw a massive 10 SP jump in his last race, and if this can be maintained he will be a favourite in this field.

Post 7 – THE COLDEST DAY – 6/1

THE COLDEST DAY is sired by TAPIT x MEDAGLIA D’ORO and is running for the stormborn2 stable.  THE COLDEST DAY has won in 3 times in 7 starts for a 43% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 111.2 (5)
12 Month Average Speed: 96.4 (6)
12 Month Form: 22112

THE COLDEST DAY has had an amazing start to his career, with his worst finish being a 3rd place finish in his maiden debut, since then he has split 50/50 between first and second place finishes.  This includes a 2nd place finish at the ‘Upper California Derby’ (G2) in his last race where he posted a 111SP figure.  THE COLDEST DAY appears ready to bring home another top finish, I would not be surprised if it came along with another career high SP.

Post 8 – PECHADOR – 19/1

PECHADOR is sired by KING KAMEHAMEHA x FRANKEL (GB) and is running for the patluc3 stable.  PECHADOR has won in 0 times in 3 starts for a 0% win rate and will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 101.2 (13)
12 Month Average Speed: 96.0 (7)
12 Month Form: 6117

PECHADOR has recently made the jump to graded stakes, with his debut in the ‘World Weekly News 2000′ (G1) where he finished 7th of 14.  His jump to graded staked came after breaking his maiden and then taking a NW2L local allowance race back to back.  Although finishing 7th of 14 in a graded field is far from failure, he still has a massive jump to make before he is ready to bring home a graded victory.

Post 9 – STORM SIRENS – 7/1

STORM SIRENS is sired by ADLERFLUG x WOODMAN and is running for the timetraveller stable.  STORM SIRENS has won in 1 times in 5 starts for a 20% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 112.7 (2)
12 Month Average Speed: 97.9 (1)
12 Month Form: 11711

STORM SIRENS is coming in top form, having won five of his last six races, including two graded stakes victories.  His only setback was a graded loss when he was tested at 12 furlongs, since cutting back to the 10 furlong distance he has regained his dominance.

Post 10 – BRIGHTBURN – 6/1

BRIGHTBURN is sired by GALILEO (IRE) x KINGMAMBO and is running for the malekfarms stable.  BRIGHTBURN has won in 4 times in 7 starts for a 57% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 111.3 (4)
12 Month Average Speed: 96.6 (5)
12 Month Form: 62111

BRIGHTBURN has won his last three races, all at the stakes level including taking the ‘Queen’s Dish’ (G1) wire to wire.  Look for BRIGHTBURN to burn out to the lead out of the gates and never look back, as he has proved he has what it takes to hold off top closers.

Post 11 – LEVER ZERRETT – 7/1

LEVER ZERRETT is sired by SEA THE STARS x DANEHILL and is running for the 00cencallmoney stable.  LEVER ZERRETT has won in 5 times in 7 starts for a 71% win rate and is a favourite to finish at the front in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 113.6 (1)
12 Month Average Speed: 97.3 (2)
12 Month Form: 11117

LEVER ZERRETT failed to show up in his last race, which may be attributed to the jump in distance to 12F or the off track, however other than that he has been a consistent performer having won four straight, and having seen his speed improve in every race other than his setback last time out.  He’s been given a two month rest and has been sent back to his preferred distance on a firm track, I would be surprised if he doesn’t bounce right back into form with another top finish.

Post 12 - MERCHANT OF MOGO  – 8/1

MERCHANT OF MOGO  is sired by FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x NUREYEV and is running for the deyoto10 stable.  MERCHANT OF MOGO  has won in 1 times in 7 starts for a 13% win rate and has a solid shot to finish among the leaders in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 111.0 (7)
12 Month Average Speed: 94.3 (9)
12 Month Form: 64253

MERCHANT OF MOGO comes in with only one victory on record, his maiden victory in his second career race, however he has finished in the top five in all three career graded stakes runs (2nd, 5th and 3rd) and has done everything right other than crossing the line in first.  He will need to continue to improve if he is to start taking home victories, however he is definitely a contender.

Post 13 – EXPECT PERFECTION – 16/1

EXPECT PERFECTION is sired by LONHRO x FRANKEL (GB) and is running for the rubiano06 stable.  EXPECT PERFECTION has won in 2 times in 6 starts for a 33% win rate and will likely be battling to finish towards the middle of the pack in todays race.

12 Month Top Speed: 104.9 (11)
12 Month Average Speed: 91.3 (11)
12 Month Form: 14673

EXPECT PERFECTION has finished close to the lead in two of his four graded runs, with 3rd and 4th place finished on the book at the 10F distance.  His other graded runs were attempts at stretching out to 13f and 16F where EXPECT PERFECTION fell well off the pace, however he did recover for a 3rd place finish once brought back to 10F.

Beerkeg’s Picks

Holeshot: BRIGHTBURN  (6/1)

Favourite: STORM SIRENS  (7/1)

Wildcard: EL NINO EFFECT   (16/1)

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