Aug 162019
 

Welcome back to the Future Stars Series!  It’s been a while since we’ve been at this, but after a summer break, we’re back in the 2yo division.  This week, we’re heading to Germany, where 12 colts and fillies have gathered to compete in an 8 furlong open allowance on the turf.  The field is:

#1 – Wasted Kingdom (Paco Boy (IRE) x Time B Wasted [Animal Kingdom x Seeking The Gold]) – Owned by mattyice2019a – 18/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-0; $35,530

Capsule: It took a while for Wasted Kingdom to ever feel firm turf under his hooves, and while the forecaster was calling for rain, it looks like the turf will stay firm for today’s race.  He debuted on March 22 in a 5.5f-T local MSW that ended up on yielding turf, and ran 4th the entire way, then followed that up with a solid 2nd on yet another yielding turf at 4.5f-T in April.  He got an upgrade to good turf for his 3rd career race and reveled in that fact, dueling on the front-end early in the 6f-T MSW, sitting 3rd before taking it to the pacesetters in the stretch and just getting up at the wire to win by a head.  He earned a career high 69 SP in that effort.  In his most recent race, Wasted Kingdom cut back to 5f-T and finally caught a firm turf course in a NW1x local allowance, but raced evenly throughout and finished 5th.  He’ll stretch out here for the first time and see if that is more to his liking.  Wasted Kingdom is by Paco Boy, a multiple G1-winning turfer who currently stands in Turkey after being sold there in 2017.  In the sim, Paco Boy’s 2018 crop has struggled far more than his earlier crops, and currently ranks #1,789 with 10 winners from 21 runners to date.  None of those horses have had any success at the stakes level, though he does have 3 graded stakes winners in his overall sim stud career.  Paco Boy’s sim foals are mainly turf sprinters, with 68% of earnings on turf and 66% in sprints (with a sim AWD of 7.21). Wasted Kingdom is the first foal from 5yo mare Time B Wasted, who wasn’t much on the track, winning just 2 of her 13 career races, one in a 4.5f dirt local MSW, and one in a 9.5f dirt $25K NW3L claimer.  Wasted Kingdom’s bloodlines (DI: 1.67, CD: 0.38) suggest that the longer distances will work for him, but he’ll need to take a step forward from his last race if he wants to really prove himself at this level.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Almunchen (Al Maher (AUS) x Munich [Monsun x Awesome Again]) – Owned by nwo4life26 – 29/1

Race Record: 5:2-1-0; $12,640

Capsule: Almunchen hasn’t had the most glamorous of careers thus far.  After debuting in a 4.5f-T Hot MSW on February 27 and finishing 2nd, he dropped down to a $20K MCL for his second start, at 5f-T.  In that race, he sat midpack early and stayed steady, moving up a little and getting up before the wire to win by ¾ lengths, earning a career-high 63 SP.  He came back in a $17,500 NW2L claimer next time out, but was claimed after finishing 9th.  His new owner sent him to the dirt, where he first finished last in a 4.5 Local NW1x allowance, but enters this race off a win in a $2500 NW2L claimer at 5.5f on the dirt.  This will be a significant jump in both class and distance for Almunchen as he heads back to the turf for the first time with his current owner.  Almunchen is the 9th foal from 13yo mare Munich, who won 4 of her 27 career races, all on turf (and primarily sprinting).  Almost all of her foals have also been turf horses, with a mix of sprinting and routing success, though only 3 of her 8 foals have won at the allowance level.  Almunchen is the son of Al Maher ($8,800), a G1 winner and #70-ranked Australian sire in 2019. In the sim, Al Maher has not been a particularly prodigious sire, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,864 overall, with 7 winners from 12 runners to date.  He has only had 2 stakes winners during his entire sim stud career, with the most recent coming from his 2015 crop.  He foals have mainly been turf sprinters (60% of earnings on turf, 61% in sprints), including the most recent stakes winner, and Al Maher has a sim AWD of 7.26.  Almunchen’s pedigree (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.08) suggests he may take to routing, but his past races leave something to be desired, so we’ll see if he can make a jump here as he steps up to open allowance company for the first time.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – Rip and Wolf (Rip Van Winkle (IRE) x Nureyev x Shirley Heights) – Owned by massatogain1- 9/1

Race Record: 4:2-0-0; $52,758

Capsule: Rip And Wolf has the most experience against other horses in today’s field, and unfortunately for him they have come in his worse efforts.  He debuted on February 23 in a 6f-T local MSW, where he sat towards the back early but came on strong late, finishing 4th and besting today’s rival Holybunionsbatman (7th).  He faired much better in his next race, at 6.5f-T, where het sat back early but came flying late and won by 1-1/2 lengths, earning a 73 SP.  He followed that up with a cakewalk victory in a 5.5f-T NW1x allowance, but enters today’s race off of a poor effort in a 7f-T open allowance, where he earned a career high 74 SP but sat in the back and never picked up any ground, finishing 9th behind today’s rivals Sadlerdini (5th) and Holy Crap (6th).  Rip and Wolf is a scratch-bred son of Rip Van Winkle, out of a Nureyev mare.  Rip Van Winkle, a multiple G1-winning turf runner from 8-10f, was the #8 ranked New Zealand sire in 2019.  In the sim, Rip Van Winkle’s 2018 crop currently ranks #726 overall, with 10 winners from 20 runners to date.  None of those horses have achieved a stakes victory as of yet, and in his sim stud career, only 5 of his foals have been graded stakes winners.  But those that have have done so in turf routes, where most of his sim foals do their best running (74% of earnings on turf, 61% in routes, sim AWD of 7.82).  The Rip Van Winkle x Nureyev cross has only been used twice in the sim, and Rip and Wolf is the only one who is a winner.  Rip and Wolf’s bloodlines (DI: 0.71, CD: -0.14) suggest that he could run for days, but he’ll need to show that he has the stamina necessary to get this distance after the last race put that in question.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Rain Rover (Manhattan Rain (AUS) x Tom Keetley [Doncaster Rover x God’s Own (AUS)]) – Owned by munson – 9/1

Race Record: 9:3-3-2; $178,630

Capsule: Race Rover enters today’s race as the most experienced, consistent, and accomplished horse in the field.  He debuted in a $50K MCL at 5f on the dirt on January 8 and broke his maiden on the dirt in his second career race, but from there he switched to the turf and hasn’t looked back.  He picked up a couple of wins at 6-6.5f in open turf allowances before making the leap up to stakes company.  His best race to date came in career race #6, a 6f-T stakes race, where Rain Rover dueled the pace early and outlasted the other frontrunners, but was caught in the stretch by a deep closer, finishing 2nd by 1-1/4 lengths and earning a career high 77 SP.  Rain Rover enters this race off of a 3rd place effort in a 5f-T stakes race, but this will be his first time running beyond 6.5f.  Rain Rover is the 2nd foal from 7yo mare Tom Keetley, who won 13 of her 32 races, all in dirt sprints, and all at the claiming or local allowance level.  Her first foal has won 3 of his 16 career races thus far, also all in dirt sprints, but those have all been in low-level claimers (or starter allowances).  Rain Rover’s sire, Manhattan Rain ($16,500) – a half brother to Redoute’s Choice and a G1-winning turf sprinter himself – was the #73 ranked Australian sire in 2019.  In the sim, his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #338 overall, with a whopping 19 winners from just 22 runners.  One of those winners has hit the jackpot at the stakes level, taking a 6f turf stakes as a 2yo.  Manhattan Rain’s sim foals, much like his own racing style, have primarily been turf sprints, with 60% of earnings on turf and 67% in sprints (sim AWD of 6.71).  All of that pedigree information seems like today’s race might be a little far for Rain Rover, but his DI of 1.40/CD of 0.33 make the distance seem possible.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Holybunionsbatman (National Defense x Emperor Meztli [Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) x Mineshaft]) – Owned by mschweitzer2 – 22/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Holybunionsbatman didn’t seem to have any issues with his feet when he hit the track, as after getting his legs under him in his 6f-T local MSW debut on Feburary 23 (finishing 7th, behind today’s rival Rip And Wind (4th)), he came back 2nd time out at the same distance and earned his maiden victory.  In that race, he sat 9th of 12, just 2 lengths off the pace, and dueled down the entire stretch run but was able to pull out the victory, earning a career high 73 SP in the process.  He made a failed effort on the dirt last time out, finishing up the track, but he’ll look to rebound today as he gets back on the turf.  Holybunionsbatman is by National Defense, and is the 4th foal from 7yo mare Emperor Meztli.  National Defense ($8,000), a G1 winner in France at 8f-T as a 2yo, entered stud in 2018 and so there we don’t have any real world foals to consider.  In the sim, however, his freshman 2018 crop currently ranks #228 overall, with 30 winners from 64 runners to date.  The numbers may not be high, but two of those are already stakes winners, with one G3-winning turf router among though.  National Defense’s sim foals have shown a turf preference thus far (74% of earnings on turf), and although they have preferred sprinting thus far (62% of earnings in sprints; sim AWD of 6.34), that might change as more of his foals stretch out to routing.  Emperor Metzli was a winner of 6 of her 21 career races, all on the turf, with 2 of those wins coming at the allowance level (she also picked up a stakes placing at 7f-T in a 5 horse field).  Her 3 prior foals, however, have yet to earn an allowance win, and the 2 winners have only found the winner’s circle on the dirt.  National Defense has been bred to a Holy Roman Emperor mare 4 times in the sim, and although only 2 (including Holybunionsbatman) are winners (the 4 collectively have combined to race 8 times), the other winner is already a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  Holybunionsbatman (DI: 1.67, CD: 0.31) has the pedigree to get today’s 8f-T distance, but he’ll need to bounce back after that poor dirt effort last time out.

Watch Level: Low

#6 – Clean King (Clean Ecology (JPN) x Affirmed x Nijinsky 2nd) – Owned by alaskacat9 – 12/1

Race Record: 4:2-0-0; $59,640

Capsule: Clean King struck gold in his debut on March 13, as he dueled for the lead throughout the 6f turf local MSW and then stuck his neck out in front at the finish line, winning with a 71 SP.  From there he cut back to 5.5f-T and tried stakes company, where he set the pace early but tired to finish 4th.  Coming back at the local NW2L level, he scored a front running victory with a career high 72 SP.  Most recently, Clean King took a shot at The Norfellow Stakes-G2 (5f-T), but struggled against the stronger competition and finished 9th.  He makes a big jump in distance today and will likely be on the front end again.  Clean King is a scratch-bred son of Clean Ecology, out of an Affirmed mare.  Clean Ecology, a son of King Kamehameha, earned over 40 million yen in his 40 race career and entered stud in 2019, so we have no real world information to go on.  His 2019 sim freshman crop ranks #99 overall thus far, with 10 winners from 37 runners to date.  The ranking was boosted by the fact that one of those 10 winners did so in a stakes race, as Clean Khani took a 5f turf stakes and has run 4th in a turf G2.  Thus far, his sim foals have been turfers, with 81% of earnings on turf, though we’ll see what happens as more foals are bred and raced.  The Clean Ecology x Affirmed x Nijinsky 2nd was used twice this year, both by the same owner, and the other filly is already stakes placed in her 3 race career.  Clean King (DI: 1.22, CD: 0.35) may have the pedigree to get 8 furlongs, and he might be the lone speed here, but his previous races give pause as to whether he can carry that speed the full distance.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – Arthurs Realm (Camelot (GB) x Minxawi [Dubawi (IRE) x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by heathy – 6/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $37,470

Capsule: Arthurs Realm, one of three fillies in the field, actually began her career in open allowance company and held her own, breaking last of 9 in the 5.5f turf race on February 4 but closing to finish 2nd.  That run was enough to bump her up to a 6.5f turf stakes, this time against fillies, where she again broke last in the field but came fast late, finishing 6th, just 3-1/4 lengths off the winner (the top 2 went on to run 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the Canada Day-G3 (6.5f-T)).  So it was no surprise last time out when Arthurs Realm dropped down into maiden company for the first time and absolutely blitzed the open field in a 7f-T MSW, sitting well back early but flying late to win by 2-1/2 lengths, earning a career high 78 SP.  Arthurs Realm is the 10th foal from 15yo mare Minxawi, and is the first of those by Camelot.  Minxawi wasn’t much of a runner in her day, earning just 4 wins in 35 career starts, with all but her maiden win coming in 8f dirt claimers.  But she has proved to be a solid broodmare, with 2 stakes winners (1 graded placed as well) among her crop.  Those stakes wins are all in routes, with 1 on the dirt and 1 on the turf.  For a description of the sire, Camelot, see Aces Over Fours below.  The Camelot x Dubawi cross has been used 12 times in the sim, but only 7 of those have won to date and only 2 have achieved an allowance victory thus far.  That may change soon though, as it looks like this particular cross likes longer distances.  Arthurs Realm (DI: 0.79, CD: 0.08) should be another one of those and has huge late speed, so don’t rule out her chances here just because she’s a filly against the boys.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Plenty of Muscles (Brazen Beau (AUS) x The Fijian [Zabeel x Elusive Quality]) – Owned by whoami – 14/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $26,280

Capsule: Plenty of muscles, one of three fillies in this race, had the latest debut of the field, waiting until May 9 to make her first on-track appearance.  Catching a field of 5 in a NW1x allowance, she had no problem handling her opponents, cruising to win by 1 length with a 58 SP.  She took a big step up in class for her 2nd race, trying a 5.5f turf stakes race against the boys, and she didn’t make a fool of herself.  Sitting midpack early, she couldn’t quite keep up with the leaders but held her own late, finishing 6th, just 3 lengths back, with a 70 SP.  Plenty of Muscles is the 5th foal from 10yo mare The Fijian and is by Brazen Beau.  The Fijian was a multiple graded stakes winner on the track, with 4 races in 24 career starts but a monster 2yo campaign that saw her win a G3 against the boys at 5f on the dirt in her 2nd career start, and then a G2 against the fillies at 5f on the turf.  Her first foal was almost as successful, as he was a stakes winner at 8-8.5f on both the turf and the dirt (and G2-placed on the turf), but her more recent foals have not had much success on the track, going a combined 2 for 53 thus far in their careers.  Brazen Beau, a multiple G1-winning turf sprinter in Australia, was the #155 ranked Australian sire in his freshman season Down Under.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #722 overall, with 11 winners from 20 runners, but no stakes winners to date.  In his 5 years at sim stud, he has only had 1 stakes winner, who won multiple 7f dirt stakes.  Like that winner, most of Brazen Beau’s sim foals have been sprinters (80% of earnings in sprints, sim AWD of 6.24), but unlike that winner, most of his foals have preferred the turf (68% of earnings on turf), The Brazen Beau x Zabeel cross has been used one other time thus far, but that horse is winless in 8 career starts to date.  Plenty of Muscles gets some class relief here and shouldn’t mind the distance, but she’ll need to take a step forward to compete with the best of today’s horses.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Sadlerdini (Bernardini x Sadler’s Wells x Giant’s Causeway) – Owned by stockswami23 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $35,220

Capsule: One of the least experienced horses in the field, Sadlerdini made his debut at 6.5f on the turf in Germany on April 4.  In that race, he stalked the pace in a field of 10 and overwhelmed the competition, winning by 1 length and earning a 78 SP as the 9/5 favorite.  He stretched out to 7f-T for start number 2 but didn’t break quite as well, sitting towards the back early and then only passing tiring horses late.   He earned an 80 SP for his 5th place finish and defeated today’s rivals Holy Crap (6th) and Rip and Wolf (9th), but Sadlerdini will look to take a step forward today.  Sadlerdini is a scratch-bred son of Bernardini, out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.  Bernardini ($50,000), the #33 ranked US sire in 2018 and winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, currently stands in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #19, with 126 winners from 170 runners to date, and the ranking has been improving as of late.  The class includes 7 stakes winners but only 1 graded winner as of yet, with that filly taking a G2 at 9f on the dirt.  Overall, Bernardini foals find dirt routes preferable, with 70% of earnings in routes and 67% on dirt, and he has a sim AWD of 8.19, not far off from his real world AWD of 7.46.  The Bernardini x Sadler’s Wells cross has been used 38 times in the sim over the past 5 years, with 7 of those going on to stakes success and 2 graded stakes winners among the group.  The crop is largely comprised of route or long distance runners, with a somewhat surprising preference for turf (60% of wins come on turf), given Bernardini’s racing career and pedigree.  That pedigree suggests that Sadlerdini (DI: 1.46, CD: 0.31) will appreciate routing, but he’ll need to prove that his last race wasn’t a sign of things to come as he stretches out in distance.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Unremembered Rooms (Shamardal x Montauk Highway [Street Cry x Unbridled’s Song]) – Owned by tribeca – 4/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $40,860

Capsule: Unremembered Rooms began his career back on March 11 in a 6f-T local MSW, where he went off as the 9/5 favorite in a field of 9 and showed why.  In that race, he broke midpack, but methodically moved closer to the lead and then easily dispatched of his competition, winning by 1-1/2 lengths with a 70 SP.  From there he tried open allowance company at 6.5f-T and tried the same running style, but could only finish 3rd.  That was enough to warrant a stakes attempt last time out, again at 6.5f-T, where he sat midpack and made a belated move finishing a respectable 4th and earning a career high 78 SP.  Unremembered Rooms will try to take things a step further as he stretches out today.  Unremembered Rooms is the 6th foal from 10yo mare Montauk Highway, and is by Shamardal.  Shamardal was the 2004 Cartier Champion 2yo Colt (and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner) and was the #5 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His sim foals follow his real world lead in their turf prowess (72% of earnings on turf), though they tend to go slightly longer than their real life counterparts (62% of earnings in routes and sim AWD of 8.02, vs. a real world 7.92 AWD).  The 2018 crop currently ranks #25 overall, with 105 winners from 152 runners, including 15 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes-winning turf routes (one at 8f-T, one at 10f-T). Montauk Highway won 7 of her 27 career races, including 3 stakes wins, and she was G3-placed, with the vast majority of those coming in turf routes.  Her foals thus far have been hit-or-miss, however.  2 of the previous 5 foals are stakes winners (one G2-placed), one in dirt routes and one in turf sprints, but the other 3 have not won at the non-local allowance level.  The Shamardal x Street Cry cross (which is pretty inbred, as Shamardal’s dam and Street Cry, the DS, are full siblings) has been used 6 times in the past 5 years, producing 4 winners and 1 graded stakes winner (a long-distance dirt runner who finished 3rd in the Breeders Bowl’ Dirt Marathon-G1 (14f) in 2017).  It wouldn’t be surprising if Unremembered Rooms (DI: 1.80, CD: 0.50) appreciates the route distance of today’s race, and he looks like a top contender here.

Watch Level: High

#11 – Holy Crap (Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) x Nureyev x Dynaformer) – Owned by 2019fmassatoga – 8/1

Race Record: 5:1-1-0; $37,530

Capsule: Holy Crap made his career debut at 5f on the turf back on January 30, where he flew from the back of the pack and got up to win by ¾ lengths.  He came back to run 2nd in a 6f-T NW2L next time out, but has struggled in 3 races since then.  He enters this race off of a key race last time out, a 7f turf allowance, where Holy Crap sat midpack but had to settle for 6th, earning a career best 78 SP and finishing ahead of today’s competitor Rip and Wind (9th) but behind today’s rival Sadlerdini (5th).  Holy Crap is a scratch-bred son of Holy Roman Emperor ($15,000), the #14 ranked European sire of 2018.  In the sim, Holy Roman Emperor’s 2018 crop currently ranks #210 with 24 winners from 42 runners, with 2 of those 24 winners having earned stakes victories.  One, Holy Hello, is a stakes winner at 8.5f on the turf and G1-placed at 10f-T, and the other, Royal Mate, is a stakes winner at 7f-T.  The Holy Roman Emperor x Nureyev cross has only been used 1 other time in the past 5 years, producing an allowance-level turf sprinter.  Holy Roman Emperor’s sim horses are largely turf runners (68% on turf), and while the best of his foals tend to be routers (60% of earnings in routes), the volume of runners slightly prefers sprinting (sim AWD of 7.81), which is in line with his real world AWD of 7.71.  Holy Crap (DI: 1.91, CD: 0.47) should enjoy his first routing attempt based on pedigree, and if he sits towards the back, rather than midpack like he did in his first 4 starts, he may have an extra kick in the stretch.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Aces Over Fours (Camelot (GB) x Ace of Sparks [Forty Niner x Northern Dancer]) – Owned by westburnmagic – 11/1

Race Record: 4:2-1-0; $74,336

Capsule: Aces Over Fours, one of three fillies in this open allowance, comes from a successful female line, but it took her a little time to find the winner’s circle.  After a 2nd place finish in her debut against boys on January 13 in a 4.5f-T local MSW, followed by a 4th place finish at 6f-T against fillies, she finally broke through in start #3.  In that 4.5f-T MSW, Aces Over Fours took on 6 other fillies and sat towards the back early, but was never out of it and drew off to win by 1 length, earning a career high 67 SP.  She followed up on that with another win in a 4-horse 5f-T NW1x allowance last time out.  She’ll try to make it 3 in a row as she takes on the boys again here.  Aces Over Fours is the 16th foal from 19yo mare Ace of Sparks, and is the 2nd of those foals to be produced by Camelot.  Camelot ($40,000), the #20 ranked EU sire in 2018, was a multiple G1-winning colt from 8-12f on the turf and has sired longer distance runners in real life (real world AWD of 9.50), and his sim horses follow that pattern, with 85% of earnings on turf and 80% in routes (sim AWD of 9.27).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #73 overall, with 72 winners from 111 runners to date, including 5 stakes winners (3 graded stakes winners).  In addition to Kennedy Camelot (see below), 3yo Derby Fever Club has won back-to-back 12f-T Grade 1s and is currently the #3-ranked 3yo turf long distance runner.  Aces Over Fours was a G3 winning mare over 7f on the turf and earned 4 other graded stakes placings, plus 5 other stakes wins, in her 42 race career.  Of her 15 previous foals, 7 are stakes placed and 5 are stakes winners, including 2 graded stakes winners.  3 of the 5 stakes winners (including a G2 winner) were dirt horses. But the crème-de-la-crème is 3yo Kennedy Camelot, a full brother to Aces Over Fours, who has been a turf monster, having won over $2.7 million thus far in his career (all on the turf), with a win the The 2000 Guineas-G1 (8f-T) back on May 4 being the highlight of his career to date.  Kennedy Camelot is currently the #3 ranked 3yo turf router, and is only 1 of 3 of the 13 sim foals to date from the Camelot x Forty Niner cross to earn a graded stakes badge, all 3 coming on the turf (all 3 having turf route success).  Aces Over Fours is trying to emulate that success, but as of yet hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, but the pedigree suggests she’ll like today’s distance, and this will be a good chance to see what she can do.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for today’s race.  It looks to me like Clean King and Rain Rover are the speed of this field, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether they can sustain that speed for the full 8 furlongs.  I’m not so sure they can, so I’m going with (1) Arthur’s Realm; (2) Unremembered Rooms; and (3) Rain Rover.  Good luck to everyone!

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      Texas – Alw NW3L @ 6f-T (Division 1) (Division 2)

2)      Kentucky – Alw NW3L @ 8f

3)      New York – Alw NW3L @ 8f (Fillies)

4)      Wyoming – Allowance @ 5f

5)      Tasmania (AUS) – Alw NW2L @ 8f-T

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  One Response to “Future Stars Series – We’re BACK With A German 8f-T Allowance Featuring 12 Colts and Fillies”

  1. Excellent preview! Worthy of a graded race. I hope you keep up this great new idea of covering future stars.