Future Stars Series – 12 Future Derby Horses Try For Their First Allowance Win In a Kentucky NW2L

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  As I expected, very few horses in the race wanted to set the pace, and therefore it wasn’t a particularly quick one.  A bunch of horses that are usually stalkers ended up a little closer than they expected, and it was only 2 lengths between 1^st and 7^th.  Flowery Flattery set the pace early, but horses were all bunched up in front.  It’s Been Nice ($9.90) hit the far turn and decided he had enough of waiting, turning on the jets and taking the lead.  From there, he never looked back.  He opened up on the field and by the time the wire came, he found himself 1-3/4 lengths ahead, earning an 89 SP in the victory.  Imbil Meetup, who was sitting about 1 length behind It’s Been Nice early, stayed that way the entire race, shadowing the eventual winner and running 2^nd with an 87 SP.  Flowery Flattery pulled off a bit of an upset by staying on for 3^rd, 2-1/4 lengths off the winner but another 3 lengths clear of 4^th place.

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This week, the Future Stars Series heads back to Kentucky for a stacked race.  12 colts have come together in the Bluegrass State to try their hooves at an 8 furlong NW2L allowance on the dirt.  The field is:

#1 – Young Free Single (Mineshaft x Deputy Minister x Forty Niner) – Owned by kiwirharfoex – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $45,895

Capsule: Young Free Single was bred very early in the year, but stayed in the barn until June 1, when he made his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW at 6.5f.  In that race, he fought for the lead early and eventually took it, opening up on the field and cruising to a 1-1/2 length victory, earning a 73 SP at 9/1 (the 2^nd place horse came back to break his maiden next time out with an 82 SP).  From there, Young Free Single stretched out to 7.5f and tried a NW2L allowance, where he set the pace early, opened up a big lead in the stretch, and then was narrowly cut down by one of the closers, resulting in a 2^nd place finish with a career high 79 SP.  He’ll try 2 turns for the first time in today’s race.  Young Free Single is a scratch-bred son of Mineshaft, out of a Deputy Minister mare.  Mineshaft ($20,000) the #35 ranked US sire in 2018, was the 2003 US Horse of the Year when racing.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #63 overall, with 74 winners from 117 runners, including 3 stakes winners to date (but no graded stakes winners).  Two of those stakes winners have been in dirt sprints, while the third took home a residency-restricted stakes at 8.5f on the dirt.  Historically, Mineshaft’s sim horses have been pretty evenly split between turf and dirt (55% of earnings on dirt), though his last few crops have strongly favored dirt (69% of winners on dirt). He has a slight preference for throwing routers (69% in routes, though only 58% of the wins are in routes; sim AWD of 8.06) which lines up with his real life average winning distance of 7.22f (which for a US sire equates to more of an 8-9f runner).  The Mineshaft x Deputy Minister cross specifically has been used 18 times over the past 5 years, producing 13 winners to date.  2 of those have been stakes winners (and 6 of the foals are stakes placed), with 1 multiple graded stakes winner on dirt among them.  The cross strongly prefers dirt, with a pretty even mix between sprinting and routing.  Young Free Single (DI: 3.73, CD: 0.92) is going to hope he leans towards the latter here, though his pedigree suggests a little more speed than stamina.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Yankee Pharaonem (American Pharoah x Seattle Slew x Deputy Minister) – Owned by broohar2 – 9/2 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Yankee Pharaonem made the latest debut in the field, beginning his racing career on August 3.  That race came in an ASR residency-restricted 7.5f dirt MSW where he took on a field of 15.  Stalking the pace early, he made his move in the far turn, inching closer to the lead until he finally got there and stayed there, hitting the wire ¾ lengths in front and earning an 83 SP as the 8/1 3^rd choice.  This will be his first time facing winners, though he has experience in a crowded field.  Yankee Pharaonem is a scratch-bred son of American Pharoah, out of a Seattle Slew mare.  American Pharoah is currently the #1 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 12 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) from 35 starts, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 199 runners and 149 winners to date.  Of those, 19 have earned stakes victories (5 graded stakes winners) so far (both the fewest of any of his sim crops thus far).  Those stakes winners are primarily dirt routers.  His 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner as well, this time a dirt sprinter, though it’s only a matter of time before the number and the distances increase.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (78% of earnings on dirt), with an ever growing preference towards routing (61% of earnings in routes, with a sim AWD of 7.83).  The American Pharoah x Seattle Slew cross has been used 21 times in the sim in the past 5 years.  Of those, 19 are winners to date (13 allowance winners). Only 1 of those is a stakes winner, but that horse is also a graded stakes winning dirt router who has excelled in longer distance races.  The cross has a strong preference for dirt, but they are pretty evenly split between sprinters, routers, and long distance runners.  Yankee Pharoanem (DI: 4.00, CD: 1.10) looks like he should be a very good horse, and should have no problem getting today’s distance.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Buzzed Baseball (Maybry’s Boy x Spring Training II [Fusaichi Pegasus x Theatrical]) – Owned by gipper4 – 18/1

Race Record: 5:1-2-0; $56,767

Capsule: Buzzed Baseball debuted in a 4 horse local NW2L allowance on March 4, but he was only able to  run 2^nd in back-to-back races, so he wouldn’t break his maiden until his 3^rd career start.  In that race, an MSW at 6.5f on the dirt, Buzzed Baseball sat midpack early, just 2 lengths off of the leads, but steadily moved up and finally got the job done, taking the MSW by 1-1/4 lengths at 22/1, earning a 77 SP in the win.  In his 2 most recent races, at the NW2L level, Buzzed Baseball has failed to hit the board, finishing 4^th both times, but he has changed his running style up slightly as he stretches out, staying further back early but showing a stronger closing move late, and for that effort he comes into today’s dirt mile off of a career high 80 SP at 7.5f.  Buzzed Baseball is the son of Maybry’s Boy, and is the 14^th foal from 18yo mare Spring Training II.  Maybry’s Boy, a G3-winning sprinter on the track, was the #8-ranked Arizona-based sire in 2018.  In the sim, Maybry’s Boy produced 16 runners in 2018, 10 of which have won, resulting in a current ranking of #972.  None of those horses have earned a stakes victory, and in fact, only 4 of Maybry’s Boy’s 139 total sim foals have won stakes races.  His sim foals are largely dirt runners (73% of earnings on dirt), but are evenly split between sprinters and routers (52% of earnings in routes, 55% of wins in routes, sim AWD of 7.74).  Spring Training II was a 2-time stakes placed filly on the track, both coming in turf sprints, but only won twice in her 16 race career, once in a turf sprint and once on the dirt.  However, while she may not have been much on the track, she’s been far better in the breeding shed.  Among her 13 previous foals are 3 graded stakes winners, including G1 winners Backcountry (Mineshaft), a long-distance turfer, and Candy Pegasus (Candy Ride), a dirt miler, and G2-winner Rio Secco (Sky Mesa), a dirt sprinter.  In fact, her foals generally have a wide mix of preferred surfaces and distances, suggesting that the sire may play a bigger role in the surface and distance preferences.  Buzzed Baseball (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.75) doesn’t have the flashiest pedigree in the field, but he comes from a strong mare line and has been improving with added distance, so he might be a value play today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Rebuked (Blame x A.P. Indy x Forty Niner) – Owned by desertdog11 – 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Rebuked waited for the races to get a little longer and made his racing debut on July 3 in a 7.5f dirt MSW.  Going off as the 2/1 second choice in a 6 horse field, Rebuked broke sharply and dueled for the lead the entire way, before tiring slightly at the end and finishing 2^nd by 1 length, earning a 77 SP.  He came back at the end of July in a local MSW and this time settled a little bit  up front, stalking the pace in the 7.5f race.  That first race did wonders for him, as he assumed the lead in the stretch and then drew off, blowing away the field to win by 2-1/2 lengths and earning a career high 78 SP.  He’ll add an extra half furlong for today’s race.  Rebuked is a scratch-bred son of Blame, out of an A.P. Indy mare.  Blame ($30,000), the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #126 overall, with 53 winners from 85 runners.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes, sim AWD of 7.98), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.35 AWD.  The top horse in his 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 7 in dirt sprints, including two graded stakes wins at 7f.  The Blame x A.P. Indy cross specifically has been used 24 times in the past 5 years, with 21 of those having earned a win.  The numbers get even better on the high end, as 6 of the foals have earned stakes victories and 3 have won graded stakes events.  A significant percentage of those wins come in dirt routes or long distance races, as the bloodlines seem to prove a decent amount of stamina to the foals, and Rebuked’s full brother, Mutabaruka, is a multiple graded stakes winning gelding at 9f on the dirt.  That means that Rebuked (DI: 2.20, CD: 0.54) should have no problem getting today’s distance, and his past races seem to back that up, so look for a strong performance from this 2yo today.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Alumine (Graydar x La Madame [Storm Cat x Forty Niner]) – Owned by hipica  – 13/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-3; $48,590

Capsule: Alumine has had a case of thirditis thus far in his career.  He debuted on March 23 in a 6f dirt MSW and broke midpack, advancing steadily throughout and settling for 3^rd.  He broke his maiden in his second start, this time at 6.5f, where he broke midpack again and came running a little faster in the stretch, winning by 1-1/4 length with a 75 SP.  From there, he’s had 2 3^rd place finishes at today’s NW2L level.  The first, at 7f, saw him run pretty evenly throughout, and the second, at 6f, saw him break towards the back and weave through the field, finishing 2-1/2 lengths back and earning a 77 SP.  Alumine is the 5^th foal from 16yo mare La Madame, and is by sire Graydar.  Graydar ($7,500), a G1 winner at 9f, was ranked the #10 second-crop US sire of 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #108, with 97 runners and 65 winners to date.  His sim foals strongly prefer dirt, with 79% of earnings on dirt, and have shown a preference towards sprinting (56% of earnings in sprints, 66% of wins in sprints; sim AWD of 7.00), though his real life progeny have a stronger sprint preference with a 6.73 AWD.  Graydar’s 2018 crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 of those succeeding in sprints (and the third in a residency-restricted stakes).  La Madame had as good of a pedigree as you can have, but never lived up to it on the track, winning just 2 of her 45 career races (spent entirely at the allowance level, though that’s likely because of her bloodlines as much as anything else).  Her wins came in a turf mile and a dirt sprint, though her fastest races came in turf sprints.  Her first 4 foals are all allowance winners, but 3 of those 4 only have 1 such win.  The foals are all primarily dirt runners, with a mix of sprinters and routers.  The Graydar x Storm Cat cross has been used 10 times in the past 5 years, and all 10 have won, including 4 stakes winners and 1 graded stakes winner.  The stakes wins are mostly in routes, but the bulk of those foals are dirt sprinters.  Alumine (DI: 4.33, CD: 0.94) also looks like he might be more of a sprinting type, though he’ll try to show here that he can sustain his run a little longer and prove his mile bonafides.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Curly’s Ghost (Curlin x Urban Ghost Story [Ghostzapper x Storm Cat]) – Owned by roosters75 – 7/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $49,456

Capsule: Curly’s Ghost made his debut in a 6f dirt MSW back on April 27.  In that race, he stalked the pace early and moved up slightly at the end, but could finish no better than 4^th, 1-1/2 lengths back.  For his second race, he stretched out to 7 furlongs and again stalked the pace, sitting 4^th early but passing most of his competitors in the stretch; however, he was no match for the winner that day and had to settle for 2^nd, with a 77 SP.  Curly’s Ghost’s most recent race, at 7.5f, was a solid step forward, as he dueled on the front end early and assumed the lead in the stretch, cruising to a 1-1/2 length victory and earning a career high 82 SP.  Curly’s Ghost is the 2^nd foal from 13yo mare Urban Ghost Story, and is by Curlin.  Urban Ghost Story didn’t do too much in her racing career, winning just 3 of her 24 career races, though she spent that entire career at the allowance level, racing in dirt routes.  Her first foal, Urban Major (Daiwa Major), has looked a bit better ranging anywhere from 6-9f on the dirt and has tried stakes competitions, though he has not been successful at that level yet.  Curlin ($175,000), the 2-time US Horse of the Year, was the #6 ranked US sire of 2018.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #29 overall, with 117 winners from 164 runners.  That crop includes 9 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  The stakes numbers improve as more horses reach routing distances, which is in line with Curlin more generally in the sim. Curlin tends to throw dirt routers (68% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.56f AWD (sim AWD of 8.15). The Curlin x Ghostzapper cross has produced 11 sim foals over the past 5 years, with 10 of those having earned wins.  Most of those runners have been dirt sprinters, though the cross has produced 1 stakes placed horse, a dirt router.  Like the cross suggests, Curly’s Ghost (DI: 3.44, CD: 0.80) looks like he might be more of a sprinter based on pedigree, but his racing history suggests that today’s race may be right up his alley.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – Practical Clown (Practical Joke x Bring Inthe Clowns [Strike The Gold x Forty Niner]) – Owned by rrl2 – 12/1

Race Record: 4:1-2-0; $42,091

Capsule: Practical Clown made a splash in his debut back on April 12.  In that race, a 5.5f dirt MSW, he battled for the lead early, overtook the pace in the turn, and pulled away to win by 1 length.  Unfortunately, he’s been unsuccessful in 3 attempts at the NW2L level since that debut.  He set the pace in his 2^nd race and opened a huge lead early, but just barely got nipped at the wire, missing by ¼ length.  He stretched out to 7.5f for his last 2 races, and 2 back he earned his career high 82 SP when he ran 2^nd the entire way around the course.  The last race was a bit of a clunker, as Practical Clown ran 4^th the entire way, but he’ll try to rebound here as he stretches out to 8f for the first time.  Practical Clown is the son of Practical Joke and is the 7^th foal from 11yo mare Bring Inthe Clowns.  Practical Joke ($30,000), who entered stud in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 7-8 furlongs in his racing career.  In the sim, his first crop of 2018 currently ranks #135 overall, with 60 winners from 87 runners to date.  One of those foals, Practical Dance, is a 3-time stakes winning dirt sprinter, and his 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner, Love Potions, also a dirt sprinter.  Based on that, it should not surprise you to learn that Practical Joke’s sim foals are largely dirt sprinters thus far in their careers (80% of earnings on dirt, 75% in sprints, sim AWD of 6.65), though with him entering stud just last year, we will see over time if those numbers stretch out to longer distances.  Bring inthe Clowns was a horse with a number of near misses in her career.  She won 8 of her 41 career races, and although none of them were stakes wins, she was a 6-time stakes placed and 2-time graded placed dirt sprinter.  Most of her foals have also been predominantly dirt sprinters, though few of them have inherited any of her racing talent (Practical Clown’s 3 most recent siblings are a combined 0 for 34 thus far).  Practical Clown (DI: 2.33, CD: 0.70) looks like today’s distance might be pushing his limits, but it will be a good test for him to see where to go next.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – OG Zen Squall (Zensational x Summer Squall x Ghostzapper) – Owned by baffie1 – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-2-0; $51,680

Capsule: OG Zen Squall, like a few others in today’s race, made his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW, this one on April 27.  In that 6.5f dirt race, OG Zen Squall broke towards the back of the pack, but made a strong closing move and got up for second at 15/1, just 1 length off the winner (who has gone on to be multiple graded stakes placed) and earning a 79 SP.  OG Zen Squall stretched out to 7f for his next race and ran a carbon copy of his first race, coming up 1-1/4 lengths short and finishing 2^nd again.  He finally broke through in his most recent race, where he cut back to 6f but caught a weaker field, and he again sat last early but this time he moved quickly enough to grab the lead and take the win by 1 length, earning a 79 SP.  He’ll stretch out to 8f here and try to bring his closing speed along.  OG Zen Squall is a scratch-bred son of Zensational, out of a Summer Squall mare.  Zensational was a multiple G1-winning sprinter on the racetrack, and he currently stands in Argentina.  In the sim, Zensational’s 2018 crop currently ranks #60 overall, with 69 winners from 94 runners to date.  Among those, 4 are stakes winners and 2 have picked up graded stakes victories.  Much like his on-track career, Zensational’s sim foals have a strong preference for dirt sprinting (81% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints, sim AWD of 6.65).  The Zensational x Summer Squall cross has been used 10 times in the past 5 years, and although 9 of those 10 have found the winner’s circle, only one has earned an allowance win to date.  The cross has produced nothing but dirt runners, and a significant portion of those foals are sprinters.  That’s no surprise, as on paper OG Zen Squall (DI: 4.60, CD: 0.86) looks bred to sprint, but his past races suggest he may be an outlier here and he’s got a solid chance in today’s race.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Boise I Dunno (Boisterous x Sadaharu [Danehill Dancer x Kingmambo]) – Owned by hitops – 12/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-1; $41,194

Capsule: Boise I Dunno struggled in his first couple of starts.  In his debut on March 24, at 6f on the dirt, he broke towards the back and came with a  late charge but came up 1-1/4 lengths short, finishing 4^th, and repeated that effort in his second race at 6.5f.  But as he added distance, he kept getting closer.  In his 3^rd race, Boise I Dunno tried a 7f dirt MSW and broke last in the field, but put together a bit of a mid-race move and finished 3^rd, 2 lengths back and earning a career high 81 SP.  In his most recent race, Boise I Dunno stretched out to a 7.5f MSW and finally got the job done, sitting midpack early and making a big late move, getting up and drawing off to win by 1-3/4 lengths and earning an 80 SP.  The slow progression in stretching him out may help give him needed experience here today.  Boise I Dunno is the 4^th foal from 13yo mare Sadaharu, and is by Boisterous.  Boisterous ($5,000), the #28 ranked first crop US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1-winning turf runner in the 9-11 furlong range.  In the sim, Boisterous currently has the #395 ranked crop of 2018, with 29 runners and 20 winners to date.  One of those runners, Kymarc Fun, is a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  In a bit of a surprise, given his racing career, Boisterous’s sim foals have shown a slight preference for dirt (60% of earnings on dirt), while being pretty evenly split between sprinting and routing (52% of earnings and 58% of wins in sprints, sim AWD of 7.42).  Sadaharu was a very solid racehorse, and she won 19 of her 46 career races, including 16 at the allowance level, and picked up 1 stakes placing at 8.5f on the dirt, a distance in which she did her best running.  Her first foal, Jurojim (Shamardal), was also a solid racehorse, having won 12 of her 21 career races, also in the dirt route category, and she managed to pick up the stakes win (among 4 placings) that her dam never did.  Her 2^nd foal, Of Raoul (Victoire Pisa), may also be on his way to a stakes victory, though his career was put on hold while the owner took a few years off.  The Boisterous x Danehill Dancer cross isn’t super common, with only 4 runners in the sim, but 2 of those 4 are already stakes winners in routers and long distance races.  Boise I Dunno (DI: 1.46, CD: 0.38) is certainly bred for this distance, and probably even longer, so he’ll look to capitalize on that today.

Watch Level: Medium

#10 – Sacred Moon (Malibu Moon x Sacred Secret [Cape Cross x Mr. Prospector]) – Owned by farm304 – 13/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $39,340

Capsule: Sacred Moon made his debut in a 6f dirt MSW on May 3.  On that day, Sacred Moon sat about 4 lengths off the pace but started gaining in the stretch, getting up to finish 3^rd, 1-1/2 lengths back with a 70 SP.  He broke his maiden next time out, this time at 7f, as he ran a similar race but had a little extra time to catch the leaders, and he got up to win by ¼ length with a career high 73 SP.  From there, Sacred Moon made the jump to the NW2L level, but tried the turf for the first time and struggled mightily with that surface.  He returns to his preferred surface today and will try routing for the first time.  Sacred Moon is by Malibu Moon, and is the 6^th foal from 11yo mare Sacred Secret.  Malibu Moon ($75,000), the #11 ranked US sire in 2018, has long been one of the top US sires.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #20 overall, with 122 winners from 168 runners to date.  Of those, only 8 are stakes winners and only 1 has a graded stakes win, which is well off of Malibu Moon’s other recent crops, but those numbers may improve as more of his foals run longer distances.  His foals are predominantly dirt routers (67% of earnings on dirt, 66% in sprints, sim AWD of 8.05), which is in line with his 7.24 real world AWD.  Sacret Secret put together a strong racing career, winning 13 of her 40 career races, including a 1-0-1 record in her 2 non-graded stakes attempts.  She was strictly a dirt sprinter, doing her best running in the 6f range.  Her foals, however, have not been quite as good, and only 1 is an allowance winner, with most of the foals preferring dirt sprinting.  The Malibu Moon x Cape Cross lineage has been used 4 times over the past 5 years, and all 4 of those foals are winners but only 1 has an allowance win, with the majority of those foals being turf routers.  Sacred Moon (DI: 2.62, CD: 0.71) might be reaching his distance limitation here and hasn’t quite run to the ability of some of the best in this field, but a nice turf-to-dirt boost could be big for him here.

Watch Level: Low

#11 – Abijah (Dubawi (IRE) x Indra [Medaglia D’Oro x Street Cry]) – Owned by chloedawg7 – 5/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Abijah comes into this race off of a winning debut on August 1.  In that race, a 7f dirt MSW in Kentucky, Abijah took on a field of 11 and was sent off as the 5/2 favorite.  He broke midpack and stayed there for a while, and looked to be letting the pacesetters get away a bit, but he kicked into another gear in the stretch and suddenly the gap between him and the leaders was dwindling, and ultimately Abijah got up just in time to win by ¼ length, earning an 80 SP in the victory.  He gets an extra furlong here in hopes that he’ll be even more clear of his opponents at the end today.  Abijah is the first foal from 5yo mare Indra, and is by sire Dubawi (IRE).  Dubawi ($250,000), a G1-winning turf sprinter, was the #1 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop isn’t quite as strong, but isn’t slouching as it currently ranks #13 overall, with 125 winners from 168 runners. The crop tends to get better as the distances get longer.  Thus far, two of those horses have found graded stakes victories, both in turf miles, and he has 8 other stakes winners in the crop to date.  Dubawi’s sim foals are primarily turf routers, with 72% of earnings on turf and 78% in routes, and a sim AWD of 8.93, which is in line with his real life AWD of 8.79.  Indra ended her career with 4 wins in 21 career starts, all at the allowance (or local) level, and was putting up very solid speed figures in her last few races, all coming in the 8-9f distance, which is where she did her best running.  The Dubawi x Street Cry cross has produced 17 runners over the past 5 years, 16 of which have earned a victory, but only 1 is a stakes winner to date.  That one is a graded stakes winner in the long distance turf division, as that aligns with most of the other 16 foals, who have shown a preference for turf routing.  Abijah (DI: 2.00, CD: 0.50) should therefore have no trouble with the distance, and he looks to be a solid bet today, but it might be interesting to see if he turns into more of a turf runner in the future or if the dirt remains his preferred surface.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Imbil Cadmium (Justify x Outback Cadmium [Awesome Again x Storm Cat]) – Owned by cuprunners – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $35,230

Capsule: Imbil Cadmium, the sponsor of today’s race, made his sparkling debut back on April 14 in a 6.5f dirt MSW.  Facing a field of 8, he broke towards the middle of the pack early and was hustled along, gaining ground around the turn and then catching up to the leader and taking over, winning by ¾ lengths with a 71 SP.  The 2^nd and 3^rd place horses from that race would each go on to break their maidens next time out.  Imbil Cadmium, meanwhile, hit the barn for a 3 month rest and came back in a 7.5f NW2L allowance in July.  Catching a field of just 4, Imbil Cadmium may have been up against it, and after a bad break that almost immediately put him 6 lengths back, he didn’t stand much of a chance.  He made a strong closing move late, but could only get up for 3^rd, 2-1/2 lengths off of the winner (who came back to run 5^th in a G3 next time out).  Imbil Cadmium earned an 80 SP in the losing effort.  Imbil Cadmium is the son of freshman sire Justify, and is the 5^th foal out of 8yo mare Outback Cadmium.  Justify ($150,000), the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, entered stud this year, so we have no real world data to look at yet.  His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #1 overall, with 79 winners from 187 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with two stakes winners (one in a 6.5f dirt stakes, one in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win) who have both come close in graded stakes efforts recently.  It’s way too early to get a sense of his foals’ best distances or surfaces.  Outback Cadmium won 8 of her 24 career starts, with her top prize being the First State Distaff – G2 at 10f on the dirt, the distance/surface combo where she most excelled.  Outback Cadmium passed down that talent to her first foal, Eucla Cadmium (Smart Strike), a multiple graded stakes winning gelding who took home a 7f G2 and an 8f G3 in 2018.  None of the other foals have been quite as successful to date, and the only consistency in the others is that they seem to have a decent amount of stamina.  The Justify x Awesome Again cross has produced 6 runners so far this year, 4 of which have won, but only 1 of whom has won more than 1 race.  Imbil Cadmium (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.63) seems well bred for today’s race, though he might actually prefer even longer distances going forward.

Watch Level: High

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That’s the field for this week’s race.  I seem to be really terrible at picking these races, but this is a race with a bunch of closers and only one pace horse: Young Free Single.  That gives the inside colt a good chance here.  My concern with him is the distance, and so I’m gonna instead go with…one of the closers?  Sure, why not.  I’ll take (1) Abijah, (2) Yankee Pharaonem, and (3) Boise I Dunno.  Because Boise… I dunno.  Good luck everyone!

Other Races to Watch This Weekend:

1)      New Mexico – Alw NW3L @ 8f

2)      Texas – Alw NW2L @ 8.5f (Fillies)

3)      Iowa – Alw NW2L @ 8f

4)      Michigan – Alw NW3L @ 6f (Fillies)

5)      Ireland – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Fillies)

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