Sep 202019

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  It seems as though that race may have been all about the pace.  And in the race, the pace was set, somewhat surprisingly, by Street Kirby.  He had a nice run early, but at the halfway point, It’s No Sin ($13.40) decided that he didn’t want to mess around anymore, and assumed the lead.  From there, the race was already over, and It’s No Sin pulled away to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning an 88 SP.  U S Navy Spirit, who had stalked the pace in 5th early, moved up and passed Street Kirby late in the stretch to get up for 2nd, earning an 86 SP.  Street Kirby held on for 3rd, 1-3/4 lengths behind the winner and just a half length in front of Egyptian Lynx in 4th, also earning an 86 SP.

This week, the Future Stars Series heads down to sunny Florida, where 10 colts and geldings square off in the first step to their future greatness, a NW2L Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on the dirt.  The field is:

#1 – Turn Up The Music (Long Island Sound x Exclusivity II [Conquistador Cielo x Affirmed]) – Owned by 3legendz – 13/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $34,740

Capsule: Turn Up The Music, a Florida-bred colt, made his debut on May 27 in a 6f Local MSW here in Florida.  He put together a solid race that day, as he stalked the pace early before assuming the lead at the top of the stretch and winning by 1 length, earning a 75 SP.  He stuck with the local company for his 2nd race, a 5.5f NW1x allowance, but the cutback in distance didn’t seem to suit him.  He broke well and briefly set the pace, but soon gave way and ended up settling for 3rd in the field of 6, with a 66 SP.  Turn Up The Music takes on open company for the first time today as he stretches out to routing and tries to bounce back off of the subpar effort last time out.  Turn Up The Music is by Long Island Sound, and is the 9th foal out of 19yo mare Exclusivity II.  Freshman sire Long Island Sound ($5,000), a son of War Front, was a G3 winning turf router in Ireland (and G1-placed in the US).  His debut sim crop includes 22 runners thus far, with 10 winners to date, and the crop is currently ranked #284 overall.  3 of those runners have earned allowance wins, but 2 of those were in 4 horse allowances and the 3rd was a 5 horse local allowance.  Most of the foals have started their careers on dirt, but it remains to be seen what the best surface and distance combo for his foals will be.  Exclusivity II wasn’t much on the track, as she won just 1 of her 23 career races, a dirt sprint MSW, and most of her races were in dirt sprints.  While she may not have done much, she has passed down the dirt sprinting gene to just about all of her foals.  2 of those foals are stakes placed dirt sprinters, and in fact, of the 8 previous foals, only 5 of their combined 37 wins were in anything other than dirt sprints.  Turn Up The Music (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.75) will try to bring that number up to 6 in today’s race.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Uncle Sam ER (Uncle Mo x Fastnet Lake Em [Fastnet Rock (AUS) x Encosta De Lago (AUS)]) – Owned by erracing – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $35,406

Capsule: Uncle Sam ER began his career on May 6 in a 6f MSW, but even though he went off as the 6/5 favorite, he struggled in that first start, finishing 4th.  He came back a month later at 7f though, and put together a much better performance.  There, he broke last of 7 early, falling well off the pace, but came flying late and pulled away to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a 74 SP.  Uncle Sam ER stretched out to 7.5f in his most recent race, his first against winners, and again broke last, but fell so far back that he never stood much of a chance.  He might need to stay a little closer to the field in this one to have a chance.  Uncle Sam ER is the 3rd foal from 7yo mare Fastnet Lake Em, and is by sire Uncle Mo.  Uncle Mo ($125,000), the #13 ranked US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-8.5f and has been one of the best real world sires in the US.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #9 overall, with 142 winners from 185 runners to date (and his 2019 crop ranks #24, with 54 winners from 149 runners).  8 of those 3yos have won stakes races, but only 1 thus far has earned a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals strongly prefer the dirt (75% of earnings on dirt), though there is a pretty even split between sprints and routes (52% of earnings in routes). His sim AWD of 7.41 almost exactly matches his real world AWD of 7.36.  Fastnet Lake Em is an interesting mare for this 2yo.  She won 8 of her 34 career races, with 5 of her 8 wins and her fastest races coming on the dirt (and her fastest are in routes).  However, she is a decorated racehorse, as she earned EOY Category honors as the #1 ranked 2yo female turf sprinter back in 2014, thanks to back-to-back wins in The Prestige-G3 (7f-T) and The Chevel-G1 (6f-T). So she seemed to have ability on both surfaces.  Her 2 previous foals, meanwhile, are also solid runners (both are at least stakes placed), with their expertise coming in turf sprints, and her oldest, Snitzel Lake Em (Snitzel (AUS)), is a stakes winning turf sprinter. The Uncle Mo x Fastnet Rock cross has been used twice in the sim, and the other runner is a multiple stakes placed dirt sprinter.  It will be interesting to see if Uncle Sam ER (DI: 5.00, CD: 0.83) can get the distance today; his running style seems to want more distance, but his pedigree makes me wonder if he might be better served trying a turf sprint.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – OG By My Standards (Goldencents x Conquistador Cielo x Storm Bird) – Owned by baffbunk3 – 9/1

Race Record: 3:1-2-0; $61,820

Capsule: OG By My Standards made his racing debut on May 7, when he took on a field of 8 in a 6f MSW.  In that race, he broke last early, but made a late move and just barely ran out of running room, finishing ¼ lengths back.  From there, he stretched out to 7f, but while one might think the added distance would have given him the easy win, one of the competitors got first run on him and OG By My Standards again had to settle for 2nd (that competitor went on to run 3rd, and then 1st, in allowance races).  OG By My Standards finally broke through in Race #3, his first try routing, where he sat towards the back early and made a very late move, getting up just in time and winning by a head, with a 79 SP.  He’ll take on winners for the first time today.  OG By My Standards is a scratch-bred son of Goldencents, out of a Conquistador Cielo mare.  Goldencents ($20,000), a 2-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, was the #2 ranked first-crop US sire of 2018 and is currently the #1 ranked second crop sire (and #44 overall US sire).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #148, with 47 winners from 69 runners to date, including 2 stakes winners.  His progeny are principally dirt sprinters (71% earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints), though the sim foals actually show a little more stamina than his real world foals, as his 7.02 sim AWD is well above his real world 6.36 AWD.  Goldencents has not yet had a graded stakes winner in the sim, though he has had 12 total stakes winners from his first 3 crops to date; none of his 2019 crop has yet found stakes success.   The Goldencents x Conquistador Cielo cross has been used twice in the sim, but the other runner is 0 for 21 in his career.  OG By My Standards (DI: 4.00, CD: 1.10) has the pedigree of a sprinter, but his last race shows that he can get today’s distance so it’ll be good to see what he can do against winners here today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Unjustify (Justify x Unbridled x Nijinsky 2nd) – Owned by canyongate – 5/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $41,310

Capsule: Unjustify made his on-track debut on June 10.  In that race, as he took on a field of 8 in a 6.5f MSW and wired the field, winning by 1-3/4 lengths and earning a 74 SP as the 9/5 second choice.  His most recent race was not as promising, however, as he battled a field of 3 (plus 1 CPU horse) in a 7.5f NW2L allowance and tired to finish 2nd after setting the pace early as the 2/5 favorite, earning a 75 SP (the winner went on to run 8th in a G3 next time out).  Unjustify is the scratch-bred son of Justify, out of an Unbridled mare.  Justify ($150,000), the now-controversial 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, entered stud this year, so there is no real world data to look at yet.  His freshman sim crop currently ranks #1 overall, with 83 winners from 191 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with two stakes winners (one in a 6.5f dirt stakes, one in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win) and 3 graded stakes placings recently.  It’s too early to know if his foals have a distance or surface preference, but 17% of his dirt routers have won thus far, vs. 35% of his dirt sprinters.  The Justify x Unbridled cross has led to 2 2yos thus far, but Unjustify is the only one that has won thus far (in a combined 4 starts).  Unjustify (DI: 2.29, CD: 0.57) has the pedigree to get the distance today, but his last race was a little concerning and he’ll need to show some more stamina today.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Waki Love (Fifteen Love x Me Jane [Miswaki x Saint Ballado]) – Owned by sterlingracing4 – 14/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $31,820

Capsule: Waki Love was trained up well to his debut, a 6f MSW on March 31.  In that field of 13, Waki Love stalked the pace early, sitting 1-1/2 lengths back, before making a strong move in the far turn and getting to the lead, pulling away to win by 1-1/2 lengths and earning a 71 SP.  But it’s been downhill from there.  Waki Love went from the 10/1 7th choice in the MSW to the 2/5 favorite in his 2nd race, a 4 horse 4.5f NW1x allowance, but he never showed any interest and finished 3rd with a 56 SP.  He comes into this race off of a poor effort at 7.5f in a NW2L allowance, where he sat towards the back the entire race and finished last of 8.  He’ll need to take a big step forward to show that he isn’t a sim horse who freaks in his first race, only to never repeat that again.  Waki Love is by bargain sire Fifteen Love, and is the 4th foal from 19yo mare Me Jane.  Fifteen Love, a son of Point Given, did most of his running at the 8-9f dirt distance and earned over $500,000 in his career on the track.  In the sim, the bargain sire has only had 92 runners in total, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,752 overall, with 2 winners from 4 runners to date (he has been used a little more in 2019, with 3 winners from 7 runners so far).  He does have 4 stakes winners in total, though none in the last 4 years (and 2 of those 4 were local runners from when Fifteen Love stood in Texas; he’s now in Kentucky).  The sim foals have been primarily sprinters (60% of earnings in sprints, sim AWD of 7.00), with a mix of turf and dirt runners (60% of earnings on turf, but 53% of wins on dirt).  Me Jane won 4 of her 45 career starts, all on the dirt and most in routes.  She managed 1 stakes placing in her career when she caught an off-track and a 5 horse field in a 9.5f dirt stakes and finished 3rd.  Her 3 prior foals haven’t done too much on the track just yet, though all are dirt routers and the 2 most recent ones do already have an allowance win on their record.  Waki Love (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.93) seems like he might be a sprinter, and he’s got turf potential, but today’s race will be a good test to see if he can run dirt routes like the rest of his sim family.

Watch Level: Low

#6 – Pancakes and Beer (Mineshaft x The Onion Knight [Tapit x Dynaformer]) – Owned by kingscourt5- 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $43,545

Capsule: Pancakes and Beer began his career on June 22, in a URC residency-restricted MSW at 6.5f.  In that race, limited to horses who’s Sire’s DS was Mr. Prospector, Pancakes and Beer set the pace and opened up a large lead, but was run down in the stretch and settled for 2nd with a 78 SP, 1-1/4 lengths back (the winner of that race came back to win an allowance next time out).  From there, Pancakes and Beer stretched out to routing and got out of residency company, tackling a field of 8 in an 8f MSW.  But in that race, where there was no other pace, no rivals were any match for Pancakes and Beer, who opened up over 3 lengths on the field before being handridden to a 2-1/4 length victory, earning a career-high 82 SP.  Pancakes and Beer is the son of Mineshaft, and is the only foal from 7yo he-mare The Onion Knight.  Mineshaft ($20,000) the 2003 US Horse of the Year, was the #35 ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #60 overall, with 76 winners from 117 runners, including 3 stakes winners to date (but no graded stakes winners).  Two of those stakes winners have been in dirt sprints, while the third took home a residency-restricted stakes at 8.5f on the dirt.  His 2019 crop, however, already includes 1 graded stakes winner among 30 winners (and 78 runners), taking The Sorgento-G3 at 6.5f. Historically, Mineshaft’s sim horses have been pretty evenly split between turf and dirt (55% of earnings on dirt), though his last few crops have strongly favored dirt (69% of winners on dirt). He has a slight preference for throwing routers (69% in routes, though only 58% of the wins are in routes; sim AWD of 8.06) compared to his real world AWD of 7.22.  The Onion Knight was a long distance turf runner who won 6 of his 30 career races.  3 of those 6 wins were at the allowance level (the others were at the maiden and claiming levels), and he was 8th in his one stakes attempt.  The Mineshaft x Tapit cross has been used 4 times in the sim, and all 4 of those horses are winners, including 2 allowance winners.  The runners all seem to prefer dirt routes.  Pancakes and Beer (DI: 3.57, CD: 0.81) looks to be another one of those, and he’s had a promising start to his career, so we’ll see if he can take another step here.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Howe To Cross (Cross Traffic x Howe Awesome [Nyquist x Hard Spun]) – Owned by tarton35 – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-1; $48,070

Capsule: Howe To Cross, who was gelded before he ever hit the track, made his debut on May 3 in a 6f MSW.  There, he sat last of 8 early, falling way back before flying late, but coming up 2 lengths short, finishing 3rd.  From there, he stretched out to 7 furlongs and sat a little closer, but again came up just short, ¾ lengths back.  Howe To Cross finally hit the right distance in his most recent race, when he was stretched out to 8 furlongs.  In that race, he sat midpack in a field of 8, but still well off the pace, and again came flying late, but this time he had plenty of stretch to work with.  He took the lead mid-stretch and drew off to win by 1-1/2 lengths, earning a career high 82 SP.  Howe To Cross is the son of Cross Traffic, and is the first foal out of early-bred 4yo mare Howe Awesome.  Howe Awesome won 2 of her 14 career races, breaking her maiden at 8f on the dirt before eventually discovering her preference for the turf.  She had put together a few solid allowance runs at 8f-T before she was retired, and that seemed to be her preferred distance and surface.  Cross Traffic ($25,000), a G1 winner at 9f, was the #1 ranked freshman US sire of 2018 and is currently the #9 ranked second crop sire.  Cross Traffic’s 2018 sim crop  currently ranks #605 overall, with 13 winners from 28 runners, but his 2019 crop has exploded thanks to his real world performance, with 39 winners from 90 runners to date.  Among the 39 2yo winners is 1 stakes winner.  His sim foals have a heavy preference for sprinting, primarily on the dirt (73% of earnings on dirt, 81% in sprints), and his sim AWD of 6.35 is similar to his 6.71 real world AWD. Howe To Cross (DI: 5.00, CD: 0.83) looks like he might be bucking the trends of his bloodlines, as his last race suggests he’ll love today’s distance.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Federal Pharoah (American Pharoah x Lawyer Dawn [Fed Biz x Unbridled]) – Owned by theprofit4 – 10/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-1; $55,076

Capsule: Federal Pharoah made his debut on April 1, and has only been getting better each time.  That debut race saw him finish 4th in a 5f MSW.  From there, he tried a 6f MSW and set the pace early, digging in to hold on for 3rd late, earning a 74 SP.  The next step was a 6.5f MSW where he sat towards the back but came on late, just barely running out of time and finishing ½ length back in 2nd.  Finally, Federal Pharoah broke through in his most recent race, his first route attempt at 8f, where he went wire-to-wire, opening up as much as 3-1/2 lengths on the field before gearing down and winning by 1-3/4, earning a career high 77 SP.  He’ll try to keep that improvement going today.  Federal Pharoah is the first foal from early-bred 4yo mare Lawyer Dawn, and is by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.  American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner,  is currently the #1 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 13 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) from 41 starts. His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #5 overall, with 199 runners and 151 winners to date.  Of those, 20 have earned stakes victories (5 graded stakes winners) so far.  Those stakes winners are primarily dirt routers.  His 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner as well, this time a dirt sprinter, though it’s only a matter of time before the number and the distances increase.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (78% of earnings on dirt), with a slight but growing preference towards routing (61% of earnings in routes, with a sim AWD of 7.83).  Lawyer Dawn won 25% of her career races, going 3 for 12 on the track.  She was primarily a dirt router (though she never tried turf), and seemed to just be coming into her own, including a 112 SP in a 2nd place finish at 9.5f, at the end of her 3yo campaign, but was retired when she turned 4.  The American Pharoah x Fed Biz cross has been used twice in the sim thus far, but Federal Pharoah is the only one who has won thus far.  Federal Pharoah (DI: 3.80, CD: 0.83) has an interesting mix of sprinting and routing bloodlines, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself at or near the top of this race.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Imbil Antidote (Tapit x Outback Antidote [Curlin x Broad Brush]) – Owned by breed2sell – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Imbil Antidote made his debut on April 27 in a 6f MSW in a field of 12.  There, Imbil Antidote broke midpack, sitting 4-1/2 lengths back early, but made a nice move in the stretch and got up to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a 76 SP.  From there, he took 3 months off and made an aggressive jump up to stakes company, where he took on a full field in the Steve Yzerman Juvenile Colts at 7f.  Imbil Antidote broke poorly and sat in the back early.  He started coming on in the stretch and earned a career high 82 SP, but finished 7th, 3-3/4 lengths back (horses that beat him that day have gone on to win a stakes, run 3rd in a G3, and run 4th in a G2, among others).  He’ll get class relief today as he stretches out to routing for the first time.  Imbil Antidote is the first foal from 5yo mare Outback Antidote, and is by top sire Tapit.  Tapit ($225,000) was the #5 ranked US sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim class currently includes 277 runners, with 238 winners, and is the #2 ranked sim class of 2018 thus far.  Among the winners are 21 stakes winners, 8 of whom have won graded stakes races (mostly in dirt routes).  Three of those 14 have achieved Graded Stakes glory, all in dirt 8-8.5f races, including Middle Jewel Stakes-G1 winner Schumershutdown TB, Chestnut Stakes-G1 winner Big Data Test, and Sand Castle Derby-G1 winner and Eddie Haskell Stakes-G1 runner-up Above Threshold.  The 2019 crop, meanwhile, is currently #11 overall and includes 62 winners (2 stakes winners) from 174 runners.  Tapit’s sim foals are mainly dirt routers (72% of earnings on dirt, 60% in routes), and his sim AWD of 7.89 is in line with his real world 7.64 AWD. Outback Antidote had a solid little career, as she won 4 of her 13 career starts, all in dirt sprints.  In addition to those 4 wins, she was also stakes placed 3 times in her career, with 3 2nd place finishes in 6.5-7f dirt stakes.  Tapit has been bred with a Curlin mare 12 times over the past 5 years, with 8 of those horses having earned a win.  4 of those are allowance winners, and although none have won stakes races, 2 of the horses are multiple stakes placed, one in dirt routes and one in turf sprints.  Imbil Antidote (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.66) looks like he should get today’s distance, and he’s prepped well for this race, so expect him to put up a good performance today.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Sixdaysheworked (Creator x A Cup of Coltrane [Empire Maker x Medaglia D’Oro]) – Owned by kewmwa – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Sixdaysheworked has had a tale of two races thus far in his career.  In his debut, a 7f MSW on June 23, Sixdaysheworked stalked the pace early, then overpowered his competition as the 7/2 second choice in the field of 13 and won by 1-1/4 lengths, earning an impressive 80 SP.  In his second race, however, he stretched out to 8 furlongs in a NW2L and completely flopped.  He tried to stalk the pace, but quickly ran out of gas and finished last in the field of 6, beaten almost 17 lengths and earning a 60 SP as the 5/2 second choice.  He’ll try to bounce back today as he gives routing one more try.  Sixdaysheworked is the son of Creator, and is the 5th foal from 11yo mare A Cup of Coltrane.  Creator (2MM Yen), winner of the 2016 Belmont Stakes, entered stud in Japan in 2017, so he has not had any real foals hit the track.  In the sim, Creator’s 2018 crop currently ranks #147 overall, with 56 winners from 89 runners to date, and his 2019 crop is currently #362, with 20 winners from 64 runners.  Included in the 2018 crop is multiple stakes winner Evolution Theory, a dirt miler, as well as multiple G1-placed filly Bode Girl, who was 3rd in the Bluegrass Oaks-G1 (9f) and 2nd in the Sister Hen Stakes-G1 (9f).  Creator’s sim foals have taken after him thus far as dirt routers, with 84% of earnings coming on the dirt and 59% on routes (which is increasing as more foals run in routes), and his sim AWD of 7.52 is already on the upper end of sires in this field.  A Cup of Coltrane wasn’t much of a runner, with only 1 win and 1 show in 15 career races (most of which were run at 8-10f on dirt), and 2 of her first 3 foals were likewise not much on the track.  However, her 2nd foal, Nocongratsneeded (Congrats), was a monster on the track.  His crowning achievement was his victory in The Japan Dirt Cup-G1 (9f) in 2016, but on top of that G1 win, he also earned a G2 and  a G3 victory, plus 6 other graded stakes placings (4 in G1s).  The Creator x Empire Maker cross has been used 4 times, but thus far, Sixdaysheworked is the only one to have earned a victory.  Sixdaysheworked (DI: 4.14, CD: 0.83) is trying to mimic his half-brother with a run at today’s distance, but there’s a decent chance that he may need to return to sprinting to show his true talents.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for this 8.5f allowance.  Since I’ve completely given up on predicting who the winners will be, I’m gonna flip a coin.  And the result is: (1) Pancakes and Beer; (2) Howe To Cross; (3) Imbil Antidote.  Good luck everyone!

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      New York – Alw NW3L @ 8f-T (Fillies) (Will be run in 2 Divisions)

2)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 8f-T (Fillies) (Will be run in 2 Divisions)

3)      Ireland – Local Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T (Division 1) (Division 2)

4)      Mexico – Alw NW2L @ 8.5f (Fillies) (Will be run in 2 Divisions)

5)      Ireland – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T

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  One Response to “Future Stars Series – 10 Colts and Geldings Begin Their Path To The Derby in a NW2L Florida 8.5f Allowance”

  1. Nice article and great job.