Aug 162019
 

Welcome back to the Future Stars Series!  It’s been a while since we’ve been at this, but after a summer break, we’re back in the 2yo division.  This week, we’re heading to Germany, where 12 colts and fillies have gathered to compete in an 8 furlong open allowance on the turf.  The field is:

#1 – Wasted Kingdom (Paco Boy (IRE) x Time B Wasted [Animal Kingdom x Seeking The Gold]) – Owned by mattyice2019a – 18/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-0; $35,530

Capsule: It took a while for Wasted Kingdom to ever feel firm turf under his hooves, and while the forecaster was calling for rain, it looks like the turf will stay firm for today’s race.  He debuted on March 22 in a 5.5f-T local MSW that ended up on yielding turf, and ran 4th the entire way, then followed that up with a solid 2nd on yet another yielding turf at 4.5f-T in April.  He got an upgrade to good turf for his 3rd career race and reveled in that fact, dueling on the front-end early in the 6f-T MSW, sitting 3rd before taking it to the pacesetters in the stretch and just getting up at the wire to win by a head.  He earned a career high 69 SP in that effort.  In his most recent race, Wasted Kingdom cut back to 5f-T and finally caught a firm turf course in a NW1x local allowance, but raced evenly throughout and finished 5th.  He’ll stretch out here for the first time and see if that is more to his liking.  Wasted Kingdom is by Paco Boy, a multiple G1-winning turfer who currently stands in Turkey after being sold there in 2017.  In the sim, Paco Boy’s 2018 crop has struggled far more than his earlier crops, and currently ranks #1,789 with 10 winners from 21 runners to date.  None of those horses have had any success at the stakes level, though he does have 3 graded stakes winners in his overall sim stud career.  Paco Boy’s sim foals are mainly turf sprinters, with 68% of earnings on turf and 66% in sprints (with a sim AWD of 7.21). Wasted Kingdom is the first foal from 5yo mare Time B Wasted, who wasn’t much on the track, winning just 2 of her 13 career races, one in a 4.5f dirt local MSW, and one in a 9.5f dirt $25K NW3L claimer.  Wasted Kingdom’s bloodlines (DI: 1.67, CD: 0.38) suggest that the longer distances will work for him, but he’ll need to take a step forward from his last race if he wants to really prove himself at this level.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Almunchen (Al Maher (AUS) x Munich [Monsun x Awesome Again]) – Owned by nwo4life26 – 29/1

Race Record: 5:2-1-0; $12,640

Capsule: Almunchen hasn’t had the most glamorous of careers thus far.  After debuting in a 4.5f-T Hot MSW on February 27 and finishing 2nd, he dropped down to a $20K MCL for his second start, at 5f-T.  In that race, he sat midpack early and stayed steady, moving up a little and getting up before the wire to win by ¾ lengths, earning a career-high 63 SP.  He came back in a $17,500 NW2L claimer next time out, but was claimed after finishing 9th.  His new owner sent him to the dirt, where he first finished last in a 4.5 Local NW1x allowance, but enters this race off a win in a $2500 NW2L claimer at 5.5f on the dirt.  This will be a significant jump in both class and distance for Almunchen as he heads back to the turf for the first time with his current owner.  Almunchen is the 9th foal from 13yo mare Munich, who won 4 of her 27 career races, all on turf (and primarily sprinting).  Almost all of her foals have also been turf horses, with a mix of sprinting and routing success, though only 3 of her 8 foals have won at the allowance level.  Almunchen is the son of Al Maher ($8,800), a G1 winner and #70-ranked Australian sire in 2019. In the sim, Al Maher has not been a particularly prodigious sire, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,864 overall, with 7 winners from 12 runners to date.  He has only had 2 stakes winners during his entire sim stud career, with the most recent coming from his 2015 crop.  He foals have mainly been turf sprinters (60% of earnings on turf, 61% in sprints), including the most recent stakes winner, and Al Maher has a sim AWD of 7.26.  Almunchen’s pedigree (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.08) suggests he may take to routing, but his past races leave something to be desired, so we’ll see if he can make a jump here as he steps up to open allowance company for the first time.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – Rip and Wolf (Rip Van Winkle (IRE) x Nureyev x Shirley Heights) – Owned by massatogain1- 9/1

Race Record: 4:2-0-0; $52,758

Capsule: Rip And Wolf has the most experience against other horses in today’s field, and unfortunately for him they have come in his worse efforts.  He debuted on February 23 in a 6f-T local MSW, where he sat towards the back early but came on strong late, finishing 4th and besting today’s rival Holybunionsbatman (7th).  He faired much better in his next race, at 6.5f-T, where het sat back early but came flying late and won by 1-1/2 lengths, earning a 73 SP.  He followed that up with a cakewalk victory in a 5.5f-T NW1x allowance, but enters today’s race off of a poor effort in a 7f-T open allowance, where he earned a career high 74 SP but sat in the back and never picked up any ground, finishing 9th behind today’s rivals Sadlerdini (5th) and Holy Crap (6th).  Rip and Wolf is a scratch-bred son of Rip Van Winkle, out of a Nureyev mare.  Rip Van Winkle, a multiple G1-winning turf runner from 8-10f, was the #8 ranked New Zealand sire in 2019.  In the sim, Rip Van Winkle’s 2018 crop currently ranks #726 overall, with 10 winners from 20 runners to date.  None of those horses have achieved a stakes victory as of yet, and in his sim stud career, only 5 of his foals have been graded stakes winners.  But those that have have done so in turf routes, where most of his sim foals do their best running (74% of earnings on turf, 61% in routes, sim AWD of 7.82).  The Rip Van Winkle x Nureyev cross has only been used twice in the sim, and Rip and Wolf is the only one who is a winner.  Rip and Wolf’s bloodlines (DI: 0.71, CD: -0.14) suggest that he could run for days, but he’ll need to show that he has the stamina necessary to get this distance after the last race put that in question.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Rain Rover (Manhattan Rain (AUS) x Tom Keetley [Doncaster Rover x God’s Own (AUS)]) – Owned by munson – 9/1

Race Record: 9:3-3-2; $178,630

Capsule: Race Rover enters today’s race as the most experienced, consistent, and accomplished horse in the field.  He debuted in a $50K MCL at 5f on the dirt on January 8 and broke his maiden on the dirt in his second career race, but from there he switched to the turf and hasn’t looked back.  He picked up a couple of wins at 6-6.5f in open turf allowances before making the leap up to stakes company.  His best race to date came in career race #6, a 6f-T stakes race, where Rain Rover dueled the pace early and outlasted the other frontrunners, but was caught in the stretch by a deep closer, finishing 2nd by 1-1/4 lengths and earning a career high 77 SP.  Rain Rover enters this race off of a 3rd place effort in a 5f-T stakes race, but this will be his first time running beyond 6.5f.  Rain Rover is the 2nd foal from 7yo mare Tom Keetley, who won 13 of her 32 races, all in dirt sprints, and all at the claiming or local allowance level.  Her first foal has won 3 of his 16 career races thus far, also all in dirt sprints, but those have all been in low-level claimers (or starter allowances).  Rain Rover’s sire, Manhattan Rain ($16,500) – a half brother to Redoute’s Choice and a G1-winning turf sprinter himself – was the #73 ranked Australian sire in 2019.  In the sim, his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #338 overall, with a whopping 19 winners from just 22 runners.  One of those winners has hit the jackpot at the stakes level, taking a 6f turf stakes as a 2yo.  Manhattan Rain’s sim foals, much like his own racing style, have primarily been turf sprints, with 60% of earnings on turf and 67% in sprints (sim AWD of 6.71).  All of that pedigree information seems like today’s race might be a little far for Rain Rover, but his DI of 1.40/CD of 0.33 make the distance seem possible.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Holybunionsbatman (National Defense x Emperor Meztli [Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) x Mineshaft]) – Owned by mschweitzer2 – 22/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Holybunionsbatman didn’t seem to have any issues with his feet when he hit the track, as after getting his legs under him in his 6f-T local MSW debut on Feburary 23 (finishing 7th, behind today’s rival Rip And Wind (4th)), he came back 2nd time out at the same distance and earned his maiden victory.  In that race, he sat 9th of 12, just 2 lengths off the pace, and dueled down the entire stretch run but was able to pull out the victory, earning a career high 73 SP in the process.  He made a failed effort on the dirt last time out, finishing up the track, but he’ll look to rebound today as he gets back on the turf.  Holybunionsbatman is by National Defense, and is the 4th foal from 7yo mare Emperor Meztli.  National Defense ($8,000), a G1 winner in France at 8f-T as a 2yo, entered stud in 2018 and so there we don’t have any real world foals to consider.  In the sim, however, his freshman 2018 crop currently ranks #228 overall, with 30 winners from 64 runners to date.  The numbers may not be high, but two of those are already stakes winners, with one G3-winning turf router among though.  National Defense’s sim foals have shown a turf preference thus far (74% of earnings on turf), and although they have preferred sprinting thus far (62% of earnings in sprints; sim AWD of 6.34), that might change as more of his foals stretch out to routing.  Emperor Metzli was a winner of 6 of her 21 career races, all on the turf, with 2 of those wins coming at the allowance level (she also picked up a stakes placing at 7f-T in a 5 horse field).  Her 3 prior foals, however, have yet to earn an allowance win, and the 2 winners have only found the winner’s circle on the dirt.  National Defense has been bred to a Holy Roman Emperor mare 4 times in the sim, and although only 2 (including Holybunionsbatman) are winners (the 4 collectively have combined to race 8 times), the other winner is already a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  Holybunionsbatman (DI: 1.67, CD: 0.31) has the pedigree to get today’s 8f-T distance, but he’ll need to bounce back after that poor dirt effort last time out.

Watch Level: Low

#6 – Clean King (Clean Ecology (JPN) x Affirmed x Nijinsky 2nd) – Owned by alaskacat9 – 12/1

Race Record: 4:2-0-0; $59,640

Capsule: Clean King struck gold in his debut on March 13, as he dueled for the lead throughout the 6f turf local MSW and then stuck his neck out in front at the finish line, winning with a 71 SP.  From there he cut back to 5.5f-T and tried stakes company, where he set the pace early but tired to finish 4th.  Coming back at the local NW2L level, he scored a front running victory with a career high 72 SP.  Most recently, Clean King took a shot at The Norfellow Stakes-G2 (5f-T), but struggled against the stronger competition and finished 9th.  He makes a big jump in distance today and will likely be on the front end again.  Clean King is a scratch-bred son of Clean Ecology, out of an Affirmed mare.  Clean Ecology, a son of King Kamehameha, earned over 40 million yen in his 40 race career and entered stud in 2019, so we have no real world information to go on.  His 2019 sim freshman crop ranks #99 overall thus far, with 10 winners from 37 runners to date.  The ranking was boosted by the fact that one of those 10 winners did so in a stakes race, as Clean Khani took a 5f turf stakes and has run 4th in a turf G2.  Thus far, his sim foals have been turfers, with 81% of earnings on turf, though we’ll see what happens as more foals are bred and raced.  The Clean Ecology x Affirmed x Nijinsky 2nd was used twice this year, both by the same owner, and the other filly is already stakes placed in her 3 race career.  Clean King (DI: 1.22, CD: 0.35) may have the pedigree to get 8 furlongs, and he might be the lone speed here, but his previous races give pause as to whether he can carry that speed the full distance.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – Arthurs Realm (Camelot (GB) x Minxawi [Dubawi (IRE) x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by heathy – 6/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $37,470

Capsule: Arthurs Realm, one of three fillies in the field, actually began her career in open allowance company and held her own, breaking last of 9 in the 5.5f turf race on February 4 but closing to finish 2nd.  That run was enough to bump her up to a 6.5f turf stakes, this time against fillies, where she again broke last in the field but came fast late, finishing 6th, just 3-1/4 lengths off the winner (the top 2 went on to run 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the Canada Day-G3 (6.5f-T)).  So it was no surprise last time out when Arthurs Realm dropped down into maiden company for the first time and absolutely blitzed the open field in a 7f-T MSW, sitting well back early but flying late to win by 2-1/2 lengths, earning a career high 78 SP.  Arthurs Realm is the 10th foal from 15yo mare Minxawi, and is the first of those by Camelot.  Minxawi wasn’t much of a runner in her day, earning just 4 wins in 35 career starts, with all but her maiden win coming in 8f dirt claimers.  But she has proved to be a solid broodmare, with 2 stakes winners (1 graded placed as well) among her crop.  Those stakes wins are all in routes, with 1 on the dirt and 1 on the turf.  For a description of the sire, Camelot, see Aces Over Fours below.  The Camelot x Dubawi cross has been used 12 times in the sim, but only 7 of those have won to date and only 2 have achieved an allowance victory thus far.  That may change soon though, as it looks like this particular cross likes longer distances.  Arthurs Realm (DI: 0.79, CD: 0.08) should be another one of those and has huge late speed, so don’t rule out her chances here just because she’s a filly against the boys.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Plenty of Muscles (Brazen Beau (AUS) x The Fijian [Zabeel x Elusive Quality]) – Owned by whoami – 14/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $26,280

Capsule: Plenty of muscles, one of three fillies in this race, had the latest debut of the field, waiting until May 9 to make her first on-track appearance.  Catching a field of 5 in a NW1x allowance, she had no problem handling her opponents, cruising to win by 1 length with a 58 SP.  She took a big step up in class for her 2nd race, trying a 5.5f turf stakes race against the boys, and she didn’t make a fool of herself.  Sitting midpack early, she couldn’t quite keep up with the leaders but held her own late, finishing 6th, just 3 lengths back, with a 70 SP.  Plenty of Muscles is the 5th foal from 10yo mare The Fijian and is by Brazen Beau.  The Fijian was a multiple graded stakes winner on the track, with 4 races in 24 career starts but a monster 2yo campaign that saw her win a G3 against the boys at 5f on the dirt in her 2nd career start, and then a G2 against the fillies at 5f on the turf.  Her first foal was almost as successful, as he was a stakes winner at 8-8.5f on both the turf and the dirt (and G2-placed on the turf), but her more recent foals have not had much success on the track, going a combined 2 for 53 thus far in their careers.  Brazen Beau, a multiple G1-winning turf sprinter in Australia, was the #155 ranked Australian sire in his freshman season Down Under.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #722 overall, with 11 winners from 20 runners, but no stakes winners to date.  In his 5 years at sim stud, he has only had 1 stakes winner, who won multiple 7f dirt stakes.  Like that winner, most of Brazen Beau’s sim foals have been sprinters (80% of earnings in sprints, sim AWD of 6.24), but unlike that winner, most of his foals have preferred the turf (68% of earnings on turf), The Brazen Beau x Zabeel cross has been used one other time thus far, but that horse is winless in 8 career starts to date.  Plenty of Muscles gets some class relief here and shouldn’t mind the distance, but she’ll need to take a step forward to compete with the best of today’s horses.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Sadlerdini (Bernardini x Sadler’s Wells x Giant’s Causeway) – Owned by stockswami23 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $35,220

Capsule: One of the least experienced horses in the field, Sadlerdini made his debut at 6.5f on the turf in Germany on April 4.  In that race, he stalked the pace in a field of 10 and overwhelmed the competition, winning by 1 length and earning a 78 SP as the 9/5 favorite.  He stretched out to 7f-T for start number 2 but didn’t break quite as well, sitting towards the back early and then only passing tiring horses late.   He earned an 80 SP for his 5th place finish and defeated today’s rivals Holy Crap (6th) and Rip and Wolf (9th), but Sadlerdini will look to take a step forward today.  Sadlerdini is a scratch-bred son of Bernardini, out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.  Bernardini ($50,000), the #33 ranked US sire in 2018 and winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, currently stands in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #19, with 126 winners from 170 runners to date, and the ranking has been improving as of late.  The class includes 7 stakes winners but only 1 graded winner as of yet, with that filly taking a G2 at 9f on the dirt.  Overall, Bernardini foals find dirt routes preferable, with 70% of earnings in routes and 67% on dirt, and he has a sim AWD of 8.19, not far off from his real world AWD of 7.46.  The Bernardini x Sadler’s Wells cross has been used 38 times in the sim over the past 5 years, with 7 of those going on to stakes success and 2 graded stakes winners among the group.  The crop is largely comprised of route or long distance runners, with a somewhat surprising preference for turf (60% of wins come on turf), given Bernardini’s racing career and pedigree.  That pedigree suggests that Sadlerdini (DI: 1.46, CD: 0.31) will appreciate routing, but he’ll need to prove that his last race wasn’t a sign of things to come as he stretches out in distance.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Unremembered Rooms (Shamardal x Montauk Highway [Street Cry x Unbridled’s Song]) – Owned by tribeca – 4/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $40,860

Capsule: Unremembered Rooms began his career back on March 11 in a 6f-T local MSW, where he went off as the 9/5 favorite in a field of 9 and showed why.  In that race, he broke midpack, but methodically moved closer to the lead and then easily dispatched of his competition, winning by 1-1/2 lengths with a 70 SP.  From there he tried open allowance company at 6.5f-T and tried the same running style, but could only finish 3rd.  That was enough to warrant a stakes attempt last time out, again at 6.5f-T, where he sat midpack and made a belated move finishing a respectable 4th and earning a career high 78 SP.  Unremembered Rooms will try to take things a step further as he stretches out today.  Unremembered Rooms is the 6th foal from 10yo mare Montauk Highway, and is by Shamardal.  Shamardal was the 2004 Cartier Champion 2yo Colt (and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner) and was the #5 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His sim foals follow his real world lead in their turf prowess (72% of earnings on turf), though they tend to go slightly longer than their real life counterparts (62% of earnings in routes and sim AWD of 8.02, vs. a real world 7.92 AWD).  The 2018 crop currently ranks #25 overall, with 105 winners from 152 runners, including 15 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes-winning turf routes (one at 8f-T, one at 10f-T). Montauk Highway won 7 of her 27 career races, including 3 stakes wins, and she was G3-placed, with the vast majority of those coming in turf routes.  Her foals thus far have been hit-or-miss, however.  2 of the previous 5 foals are stakes winners (one G2-placed), one in dirt routes and one in turf sprints, but the other 3 have not won at the non-local allowance level.  The Shamardal x Street Cry cross (which is pretty inbred, as Shamardal’s dam and Street Cry, the DS, are full siblings) has been used 6 times in the past 5 years, producing 4 winners and 1 graded stakes winner (a long-distance dirt runner who finished 3rd in the Breeders Bowl’ Dirt Marathon-G1 (14f) in 2017).  It wouldn’t be surprising if Unremembered Rooms (DI: 1.80, CD: 0.50) appreciates the route distance of today’s race, and he looks like a top contender here.

Watch Level: High

#11 – Holy Crap (Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) x Nureyev x Dynaformer) – Owned by 2019fmassatoga – 8/1

Race Record: 5:1-1-0; $37,530

Capsule: Holy Crap made his career debut at 5f on the turf back on January 30, where he flew from the back of the pack and got up to win by ¾ lengths.  He came back to run 2nd in a 6f-T NW2L next time out, but has struggled in 3 races since then.  He enters this race off of a key race last time out, a 7f turf allowance, where Holy Crap sat midpack but had to settle for 6th, earning a career best 78 SP and finishing ahead of today’s competitor Rip and Wind (9th) but behind today’s rival Sadlerdini (5th).  Holy Crap is a scratch-bred son of Holy Roman Emperor ($15,000), the #14 ranked European sire of 2018.  In the sim, Holy Roman Emperor’s 2018 crop currently ranks #210 with 24 winners from 42 runners, with 2 of those 24 winners having earned stakes victories.  One, Holy Hello, is a stakes winner at 8.5f on the turf and G1-placed at 10f-T, and the other, Royal Mate, is a stakes winner at 7f-T.  The Holy Roman Emperor x Nureyev cross has only been used 1 other time in the past 5 years, producing an allowance-level turf sprinter.  Holy Roman Emperor’s sim horses are largely turf runners (68% on turf), and while the best of his foals tend to be routers (60% of earnings in routes), the volume of runners slightly prefers sprinting (sim AWD of 7.81), which is in line with his real world AWD of 7.71.  Holy Crap (DI: 1.91, CD: 0.47) should enjoy his first routing attempt based on pedigree, and if he sits towards the back, rather than midpack like he did in his first 4 starts, he may have an extra kick in the stretch.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Aces Over Fours (Camelot (GB) x Ace of Sparks [Forty Niner x Northern Dancer]) – Owned by westburnmagic – 11/1

Race Record: 4:2-1-0; $74,336

Capsule: Aces Over Fours, one of three fillies in this open allowance, comes from a successful female line, but it took her a little time to find the winner’s circle.  After a 2nd place finish in her debut against boys on January 13 in a 4.5f-T local MSW, followed by a 4th place finish at 6f-T against fillies, she finally broke through in start #3.  In that 4.5f-T MSW, Aces Over Fours took on 6 other fillies and sat towards the back early, but was never out of it and drew off to win by 1 length, earning a career high 67 SP.  She followed up on that with another win in a 4-horse 5f-T NW1x allowance last time out.  She’ll try to make it 3 in a row as she takes on the boys again here.  Aces Over Fours is the 16th foal from 19yo mare Ace of Sparks, and is the 2nd of those foals to be produced by Camelot.  Camelot ($40,000), the #20 ranked EU sire in 2018, was a multiple G1-winning colt from 8-12f on the turf and has sired longer distance runners in real life (real world AWD of 9.50), and his sim horses follow that pattern, with 85% of earnings on turf and 80% in routes (sim AWD of 9.27).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #73 overall, with 72 winners from 111 runners to date, including 5 stakes winners (3 graded stakes winners).  In addition to Kennedy Camelot (see below), 3yo Derby Fever Club has won back-to-back 12f-T Grade 1s and is currently the #3-ranked 3yo turf long distance runner.  Aces Over Fours was a G3 winning mare over 7f on the turf and earned 4 other graded stakes placings, plus 5 other stakes wins, in her 42 race career.  Of her 15 previous foals, 7 are stakes placed and 5 are stakes winners, including 2 graded stakes winners.  3 of the 5 stakes winners (including a G2 winner) were dirt horses. But the crème-de-la-crème is 3yo Kennedy Camelot, a full brother to Aces Over Fours, who has been a turf monster, having won over $2.7 million thus far in his career (all on the turf), with a win the The 2000 Guineas-G1 (8f-T) back on May 4 being the highlight of his career to date.  Kennedy Camelot is currently the #3 ranked 3yo turf router, and is only 1 of 3 of the 13 sim foals to date from the Camelot x Forty Niner cross to earn a graded stakes badge, all 3 coming on the turf (all 3 having turf route success).  Aces Over Fours is trying to emulate that success, but as of yet hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, but the pedigree suggests she’ll like today’s distance, and this will be a good chance to see what she can do.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for today’s race.  It looks to me like Clean King and Rain Rover are the speed of this field, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether they can sustain that speed for the full 8 furlongs.  I’m not so sure they can, so I’m going with (1) Arthur’s Realm; (2) Unremembered Rooms; and (3) Rain Rover.  Good luck to everyone!

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      Texas – Alw NW3L @ 6f-T (Division 1) (Division 2)

2)      Kentucky – Alw NW3L @ 8f

3)      New York – Alw NW3L @ 8f (Fillies)

4)      Wyoming – Allowance @ 5f

5)      Tasmania (AUS) – Alw NW2L @ 8f-T

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Jul 122019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  Though “race” is a generous term for what we witnessed last week.  Then again, when 8 of the 9 horses in that race prefer to come from midpack or further back, even rocket-powered horses wouldn’t have been able to catch the lone speed.  That lone speed was Yankee Storm King ($8.20), who set a ridiculously slow pace for the 7f race and wasn’t even slightly challenged.  He quickly found himself 4 lengths in front, and opened up as far as 6-1/2 lengths.  Entering the stretch, he was still 6 lengths in front, and he easily cruised to a geared down 1-1/2 length victory, earning a 79 SP.  Intoishe, Data Kiss, and the remainder of the closers never stood a chance in this race.  But Intoishe showed some talent as well, closing well late and finishing 2nd, just 1-1/2 behind the lone speed.  Data Kiss moved with Intoishe but was the slightly slower horse and finished 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths back.  On the plus side, the lone speed angle makes handicapping that type of race easier, and I hit the top 2.

This week, the Future Stars Series heads to the Windy City where 12 2yo colts will try their luck at their longest distance to date; 7.5 furlongs on the dirt.  The field for the Illinois race is:

#1 – First Picked (Schoolyard Dreams x Stony Creek Freak [Shamardal x Beat Hollow (GB)]) – Owned by hawkes – 16/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,100

Capsule: First Picked made his debut back on April 13 in a 6f MSW in Kentucky, and he pulled off a bit of a shocker.  Going off at 24/1, First Picked looked like he had no interest early, ahead of only 1 horse, but he began to get a little more focused as the race went on and as he did, he continued to pick off horses, eventually getting up to the front and taking the victory by ½ length with a 68 SP (beating a field that has seen 3 others go on to win races).  His second start wasn’t quite as good, as he stretched out to 6.5f when trying NW2L company for the first time and he again broke last, but could only get as close as 3rd, earning a 63 SP for the effort.  First Picked is the 5th foal from 12yo mare Stony Creek Freak, and is by Schoolyard Dreams.  Stony Creek Freak only won 2 of her 28 career races, both in dirt routes, but earned a Stakes Placed badge thanks to a perfect placement by her owner, as her only stakes attempt was an 8.5f dirt run in start number 5, where she finished 12 lengths behind the winner but because it was only a 4 horse field, she was able to run 3rd.  Most of her foals have taken after her, with just 2 wins (1 allowance win) and mostly coming in dirt routes, but one, Gippsland Goddess (Zann) is stakes placed at 9.5f on the turf (though most of her races came in dirt routes).  Schoolyard Dreams ($2,000) was a multiple graded stakes winning dirt miler in his racing career.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,112 overall, with 11 winners from 21 runners.  He has not had any stakes winners yet in the sim, though he does have one G3-placed horse at 8.5f on the dirt.  Most of his sim foals, however, are dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints), with a sim AWD of 6.44.  First Picked (DI: 0.89, CD: 0.06) will hope to be the first horse picked today and should like the extra distance today, but this ground may still be too short for him.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Mo Pyjamas (Uncle Mo x Fur Pyjamas [Elusive Quality x Ghostzapper]) – Owned by tc1 – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,780

Capsule: Mo Pyjamas may be spelled the British way, but his first two impressive races both came in North America.  In his debut on March 31 in British Columbia, Mo Pyjamas went off as the 4/1 second choice in a 6f MSW and dueled on the front end early but ended up about 1 length off the pacesetters, and then fought gamely to the wire but was ultimately passed and finished 3rd, ½ length back and earning a 73 SP.  But he learned a lot from that race, and came back in Kentucky in May in a 6f MSW and walloped the competition, getting out to the lead and never looking back, opening up 2 lengths before gearing down and settling for a 1-1/4 length victory, earning a 72 SP.  Mo Pyjamas is the first foal from stakes winning 6yo mare Fur Pyjamas, who was sent to Uncle Mo to produce this colt.  Fur Pyjamas won 7 of her 32 career races, all on the turf, with the big victory coming in a 9f stakes where she battled for the lead early, opened up big late, and then held on at the wire, which is something that Mo Pyjamas will look to do here.  While Fur Pyjamas may have been a turfer, Mo Pyjamas has gotten some dirt abilities from his sire, Uncle Mo.  Uncle Mo ($125,000), the #13 ranked US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-8.5f and has been a top real world sire for years.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #10 overall, with 129 winners from 185 runners to date.  7 of those have won stakes races, but only 1 thus far has earned a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals strongly prefer the dirt (75% of earnings on dirt), though there is a pretty even split between sprints and routes (51% of earnings in routes, with a 7.37 sim AWD), which is a little surprising given Uncle Mo’s real world preference for routers (7.38 AWD; note that US AWDs are typically lower because of the prevalence of sprints).  The Uncle Mo x Elusive Quality combo has not produced any stakes winners in the past 5 years, but of the 9 runners, 7 are winners (5 allowance winners) and 2 are stakes-placed thus far.Mo  Pyjamas (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.63) will stretch out a decent amount here, and there’s a bit of a concern that based on his previous races he might tire at this distance, but the bloodlines are there to carry him this far and he’s got a solid chance here.

Watch Level: High

#3 – I’ll Bet First (First Samurai x I’ll Bet That [Machiavellian x Blushing Flame]) – Owned by okieslew – 19/1

Race Record: 9:1-2-3; $57,745

Capsule: The most experienced, and possibly the most overworked, horse in this field, I’ll Bet First has been running roughly every 2 weeks since his maiden victory at 4.5f on the dirt in career race #5.  There, he sat midpack early in the field of 7 but put together a move late and got up by ½ length, earning a 67 SP.  Since then, he has tried various distances ranging from 4.5-6.5f on the dirt at the NW1x and NW2L level, never embarrassing himself but having the benefit of short fields to put together a record of 4:0-2-1.  The fastest of those races was the longest, at 6.5f, where he sat last early but started moving late, finishing 3rd of 4 and earning a 70 SP.  I’ll Bet First is the son of First Samurai ($15,000), the #69 ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, First Samurai’s 2018 crop currently ranks #335 overall (his lowest ranking in a long time), with 30 winners from 41 runners.  None of those have yet achieved stakes success.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters, with 66% of earnings on dirt and 64% in sprints and a 7.34 sim AWD, which also lines up with his real world AWD of 6.86.  I’ll Be First is the 13th foal from 19yo mare I’ll Bet That, a winner of 7 of her 37 career races.  She was primarily a dirt sprinter in her career, and picked up a 3rd place run in a 7.5f dirt stakes effort among her races.  She has passed down some quality to her foals as well, as 3 of her foals are stakes winners, including G2-winning Ultra Fantasy (Gio Ponti), winner of The Stanford-G2 at 6f in 2018 (one other stakes winner was a turf sprinter, while the other was a dirt miler).  In general, her foals have been sprinters, though it’s a mix of turf and dirt for them.  I’ll Bet First (DI: 2.14; CD: 0.68) may like stretching out to this distance, but he has raced a lot this year and he might need a breather before he’s able to show a jump from his previous runs.

Watch Level: Low

#4 – And He Rested (Creator x Iwillbevindicated [Bernardini x Broken Vow]) – Owned by wfstables3 – 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: And He Rested put together a very strong debut back on April 5.  In that race, a 6.5f dirt MSW in Texas, he took on a field of 11 and stalked the pace early before assuming the lead late and pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a strong 77 SP as the 5/1 second choice.  Unfortunately, And He Rested saw a major regression in his second and most recent race, where he broke towards the back and stayed there, finishing 10th of 11 and earning a much lower 63 SP.  There has to be some worry that And He Rested (DI: 4.33; CD: 0.81) was a first race fluke, but we’ll see after this race which of his first two runs was more representative of where this horse will end up.  And He Rested is the son of Creator, and is the first foal from 10yo mare Iwillbevindicated.  Creator (2MM Yen), winner of the 2016 Belmont Stakes, entered stud in Japan in 2017, so he has not had any real foals hit the track yet.  In the sim, Creator’s 2018 crop currently ranks #167 overall, with 50 winners out of 89 runners to date.  Among those is 1 residency stakes winner at 8.5f on the dirt as well as a multiple G1-placed filly, Bode Girl, who was 3rd in the Bluegrass Oaks-G1 (9f) and 2nd in the Sister Hen Stakes-G1 (9f).  Creator’s sim foals have taken after him thus far as dirt routers, with 84% of earnings coming on the dirt and 58% on routes (the route number is likely to increase as a larger percentage of his sim foals run in routes).  And He Rested is the only one of the 3 foals by Creator out of a Bernardini mare that has won a race thus far (though collectively, the 3 foals only have 7 starts).  Iwillbevindicated was never much of a runner, winning only 1 of her 10 career races (that win coming in an 8.5f dirt route), so she is hoping to be vindicated by And He Rested here.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Satellite of Hate (More Smoke x Seattle Break [Sunday Break x Seattle Sleet]) – Owned by guru13 – 48/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $31,372

Capsule: It’s interesting to see Satellite of Hate as the longshot in this field, because his 2 races to date were decent runs, and it seems like he has a better shot than some of the other competitors in this field.  In his debut on May 2, he clearly showed he wanted more than the 4.5f of that race, as he broke last in the field of 12 early but passed a number of horses late, finishing 5th, just 2 lengths back, and earning a 63 SP while going off at 122/1.  So he stretched out for his 2nd race in June to 6.5f and even though the oddsmakers sent him off at 22/1, he showed that he was happier with the added distance, as he sat towards the back early and then moved late, breaking his maiden by 1 length and earning a 68 SP.  Satellite of Hate is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Seattle Break, and is by bargain sire More Smoke.  More Smoke, the #27 ranked Pennsylvania sire in 2018, was a G3-winning dirt sprinter on the track.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,553 overall, as it only includes 3 runners and 1 winner thus far.  Standing at stud since 2002, he only has 94 total sim runners, 2 of which have won stakes races (1 local).  His sim foals are typically sprinters (65% of earnings in sprints), as evidenced by his sim AWD of 7.26, and somewhat surprisingly his foals have been a little more successful on turf than dirt (52% of earnings and 62% of wins on turf). Seattle Break won 3 of her 19 career starts, all in dirt sprints, but those wins all came in the claiming ranks. Her first two foals have followed in that same basic trajectory, each winning multiple races (one in dirt routes, one in dirt sprints), but all in claimers.  Satellite of Hate (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.80) will try to buck that trend and become the first of his generation’s foals to become an allowance winner here at a distance that seems like it would suit him.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Kris Shingle (Mohaymen x Mo City Song [Uncle Mo x Carson City]) – Owned by saratogaspa – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $49,770

Capsule: Kris Shingle might sound like what happens when Santa Claus becomes a lawyer, but he’s shown more speed than Santa would on the track thus far in his career.  Debuting at 5f on the dirt on January 10, Kris Shingle stalked the pace early and came running late, but just missed, finishing 2nd by a  head and earning a 70 SP.  So it was no surprise that he came back in March at 6f and had no trouble dusting his competition, battling for the lead early and quickly assuming it, never looking back and winning by 1 length with a 75 SP.  From there, Kris Shingle made the jump to stakes company and ran evenly throughout, finishing 5th, and he gets the class relief of today’s race coming out of that stakes effort. Kris Shingle is a son of Mohaymen, and is the 2nd foal from 6yo mare Mo City Song.  Mohaymen ($7,500), a multiple G2 winner at 8-9f on the dirt, entered stud in 2018 so he does not yet have real foals.  His freshman sim crop of 2018, however, currently ranks #129 overall, with 76 runners and 41 winners to date.  Among the winners are 2 stakes winners, one who has rattled off 5 thus far (and 4 in a row) in the 5-5.5f dirt range, and one who has hit the jackpot at 6.5f on both turf and dirt.  His sim foals have shown a preference for dirt thus far (75% of earnings on dirt), and they have had a sizeable preference for sprinting (81% in sprints), though it’s possible that could change once he has more route runners.  Mo City Song, meanwhile, was a 6 time winner in 24 career starts, including a stakes win at 11f on the dirt.  Like that stakes win, most of her best races came in the 11-12f dirt range.  Her first sim foal, Mo City Bern (Bernardini), hasn’t been quite as good, with only 1 win in 9 career starts, but he’s shown some promise at longer distance races recently. Kris Shingle (DI: 6.00; CD: 1.00) drops back down to the NW2L level today from stakes company to try to take his next step forward, and although the bloodlines suggest that today’s distance may be pushing his limits, the mare side of his line has the needed stamina to get today’s distance.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – We Say Not Today (Medaglia D’Oro x Mr. Prospector x Unbridled) – Owned by given6 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $21,231

Capsule: The sponsor of the race, We Say Not Today had a solid debut back on May 5 when he sat last in a field of 7 early, falling almost 7 lengths back in the 6.5f MSW, but came with a big move late and managed to finish 4th, just 1 length behind the winner, earning a 70 SP.  He took a step forward in his most recent race on June 9, where he again tried a field of 7 but this time 1-1/4 length closer, and so when he unleashed his stretch run, he was able to get up in time and win by ¾ lengths, earning a 75 SP.  We Say Not Today is a scratch bred son of Medaglia D’Oro, out of a Mr. Prospector mare.  That combination has been potent in the sim, as of the 39 Medaglia D’Oro x Mr. Prospector foals in the past 5 years, 32 have won at least 1 race, with 7 of those finding stakes victories and one being a multiple G1-winning dirt router at 9f.  Medaglia D’Oro ($200,000) generally has the #22 ranked 3yo sim crop, and he was the #12 ranked real world US sire in 2018.  His sim crop includes 100 winners out of 158 runners, 9 of which have won stakes races (2 graded stakes winners).  Among those is Barbara Bites Back, winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1. Medaglia D’Oro’s sim foals have a strong preference for routing (70% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 7.69 AWD and 8.28 sim AWD, and they have a slight favoritism towards dirt (61% on dirt).  We Say Not Today (DI: 4.00; CD: 0.98) will try to say “yes today” as he stretches out to 7.5f, which he DI and CD suggest might be too long for him, but which the other sim foals suggest will be right up his alley.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – West of Neverland (No Nay Never x Gone West x War Chant) – Owned by stepsutt67 – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $36,720

Capsule: West of Neverland had a huge debut back on April 6, as he took on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky and bolted out of the gate, setting pace and never letting anyone get within 1 length of him, winning by 1 with a very strong 79 SP (the 2nd place horse from that race is 2 for 2 since).  That run was good enough to send West of Neverland to stakes company, and he held his own at that level.  Setting the pace again at 6.5f, he held the lead for a long time but was run down late and finished 4th, beaten 3-1/4 lengths but earning a 75 SP.  He’ll make the class drop today as he tries to stretch out a little further.  Stretching out to 7.5f is an interesting move for this son of No Nay Never ($100,000, who was  a turf sprinter and the #85 ranked EU sire in 2018.   In the sim, No Nay Never currently has the #7 ranked 2019 sim crop with 40 winners from 86 runners to date.  This slightly outpaces his 2018 crop’s current ranking of #25, though that crop is doing a little better with 8 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners to date.   No Nay Never’s sim foals are heavy sprinters (75% of earnings in sprints), which is in line with his sim AWD of 6.6 and his real AWD of 6.16, and they show a slight turf preference (59% on turf).  The No Nay Never x Gone West cross has only been used 1 other time in the past 5 years, and although that horse in an 8 time winner, those wins are mostly in turf sprints.  The uncommon cross isn’t much of a surprise, as Gone West in the DS spot makes West of Neverland a 4×2 inbreeding, which isn’t a particularly common strategy.  West of Neverland (DI: 3.40; CD: 0.77) was bred for pure speed, and he has shown it in his 2 races thus far, but it does beg the question as to whether 7.5f might be too far for him – we’ll find out today.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Gormless West (Gormley x Ecumenopolis [Gone West x Blushing Groom]) – Owned by planobrgn3 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Capsule: Gormless West is the least experienced horse in the field, with only 1 career race thus far, and that 1 race was a hot race.  Back on March 27, owner planobrgn dropped 7 of his 2yos in a hot MSW at 6f on the New Jersey dirt, and it was Gormless West who came away victorious, sitting midpack early and then coming on late to win by ¾ lengths with a 64 SP as the 7/2 second choice.  Each of the horses he beat in that race came back to run at the MCL level and none won their next races (though one has broken her maiden in a $3K MCL), but Gormless West was given over 3 months off and returns to the track today to see if he can compete with real competition.  Gormless West is a son of Gormley, and is the 7th foal from 12yo mare Ecumenopolis.  Gormley ($10,000), who entered stud in 2018, was a multiple G1-winning dirt router.  In the sim, his first crop in 2018 currently ranks ##176 overall, with 45 winners from 76 runners to date.  As of yet, none of his sim foals have achieved a stakes victory, though one is a multiple stakes-placed dirt sprinter.  His foals have had a dirt preference thus far (72% of earnings on dirt), and although it’s still early to tell distances, it looks like his initial crop has had a slight preference for sprinting (71% of earnings are in sprints, but 25% of his sprint runners have won, versus only 19% in routes).  Ecumenopolis was a very profitable mare, winning 14 of 42 career races and earning over $325K in her career.  She was a router all the way, with the large majority of those wins, plus 2 stakes placings, coming in turf routes in the 9-10.5f range.  Her first foal, Cosmopolis (Galileo (IRE)), fits that mold as well, as she was a 3-time stakes winner, all in turf routes as well.  But while most of her other foals have been routers, there has been a split between dirt and turf runners.  Gormley has been bred to a Gone West mare 1 other time, with that horse having earned allowance wins in both dirt sprints and dirt routes thus far.  Gormless West (DI: 2.76; CD: 0.75) has the bloodlines for today’s 7.5f distance, but it’s a big jump from restricted hot company to open competition at the NW2L level, so he will need to take a step forward today.

Watch Level: Medium

#10 – Speight Spirit (Speightster x Spirit of Speyside [Bernardini x Awesome Again]) – Owned by slicker – 23/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-0; $17,298

Capsule: Speight Spirit got his career off to an inauspicious start back on February 16, when he tried a 6f MSW but trailed the entire way and never passed a horse (though that debut was a solid field, with the winner being the current #1 ranked 2yo dirt colt, Carsons Way, and the 2nd place horse being stakes placed).  After that poor effort, he was dropped into the auction and picked up by slicker, and after another dull start at 5f, he tried a 4.5f MSW against a field of 5 and finally did something on the track, sitting midpack early and then taking over the lead late, winning by ½ length and earning a 57 SP.  His most recent race, facing winners for the first time in a NW1x allowance at 5.5f, may have been Speight Spirit’s most impressive race yet, where he ran 4th but earned a career high 67 SP, sitting last early but picking off some tiring horses and finishing only 4 lengths off of the winner.  Speight Spirit is the 2nd foal of 6yo mare Spirit of Speyside, and is by a son of Speightstown in Speightster. Spirit of Speyside was a reliable runner in her career, winning 7 of her 24 career races, 6 of them at the allowance level.  All 7 wins came on the dirt, with 4 coming in dirt routes of the 8-8.5f variety, where she spent most of her career.  Her first foal, 3yo Track The Pack, only raced twice before retiring, never racing longer than 4.5f or finishing better than 4th.  Speightster ($10,000) was a G3 winner at 8f on the dirt, adding some distance to the Speightstown line, and entered stud in 2017.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #405 overall, with 28 winners from 52 runners to date.  None of the horses from his 3yo crop have found stakes success yet, but he does have 2 stakes winners from his 58 runner first crop, one winning at 7f and one at 9f, both on the dirt.  That’s unsurprising, as his sim foals have largely preferred dirt (82% of earnings on dirt), and the bulk have been sprinters (76% of earnings in sprints, 6.68 sim AWD).  The Speightster x Bernardini cross has been used to limited effect thus far in the sim, as of the 4 runners, 3 are winners but none has earned an allowance victory yet.  Speight Spirit (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.63) isn’t as sprint-bred as one would initial expect, and the 7.5f distance might suit him well, but it’s gonna take a massive improvement off of his previous performances to get the job done today.

Watch Level: Low

#11 – Poetic Silence (Heaven’s Glory x Newbar Sea [All American x Our Poetic Prince]) – Owned by canadiana – 26/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $29,200

Capsule: Poetic Silence has spent his career thus far on the turf, so he’ll try dirt for the first time today.  A solid 4th place finish in his debut at 5.5f on February 16 prompted the repeat turf performance, which resulted in a front-end win at 5.5f-T, earning a career high 68 SP.  Poetic Silence’s most recent race saw him stretch out to 6.5f-T, where he fought on the front end early but tired late, finishing 5th of 6 in a NW2L allowance.  Poetic Silence is by Heaven’s Glory, and is the 4th foal from 9yo mare Newbar Sea.  Heaven’s Glory ($2,500), a son of Tapit, was unraced due to a training injury but after standing his first season in Maryland in 2017, he was transferred to California in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #340 overall, and has a somewhat surprising (considering the current 18 BP cost) 52 runners, of which 22 have won.  His sim foals have shown a slight preference for the turf overall (55% of earnings on turf), and they have largely been sprinters (70% in sprints with a 6.51 sim AWD).  Newbar Sea was a 8-time winner in 32 career races, all in turf sprints, with her best performance coming when she won a 6.5f turf stakes race as a 3yo (she was most dominant at that age, winning her first 4 career races and 6 of her first 10).  Her first foal, 5yo New Aussiezeal (He’s Remarkable) inherited some of her mother’s talent, as she was a multiple stakes placed turf sprinter as well, but neither of her other foals have produced much on the track as of yet. Poetic Silence’s (DI: 2.11, CD: 0.43) breeding suggests that he might like stretching out a bit, but he’ll need to take to the main track a little better than he took to the turf in order to prove that he can handle the distance.

Watch Level: Low

#12 – Tarton Squirt (Mr Speaker x Squirter CB [El Corredor x Lammtarra] – Owned by tarton12 – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $41,310

Capsule: The only gelding in the field, Tarton Squirt began his career on the good dirt in Florida at 6.5f on April 12 and pulled off a huge upset at 21/1.  Sitting midpack early, he came flying late and in the blink of an eye he had passed the leaders, drawing off to win by 1-1/2 lengths and earning a 70 SP.  He caught a 5-horse field in his second race, a 6.5f NW2L in March, and he fell way off the lone speed early in that race, but again came flying late and ended up in a 3-way photo that ultimately went to the pacesetter, but Tarton Squirt’s run was good enough for 2nd and earning a career-high (and field-high) 82 SP.  Of note, the horse he beat in that 3-way photo came back to run 3rd, with a 75 SP, in a 7f dirt allowance next time out.  Tarton Squirt is the 7th foal from 18yo mare Squirter CB, and is by the sire Mr Speaker.  Mr Speaker ($10,000), a G1-winning turf router, is seeing his first foals hit the real track in 2019 and he is currently the #25 ranked first crop US sire.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #166 overall, with 41 winners from 85 runners to date.  Of those, 2 are stakes winners, one at a turf mile and one in a dirt sprint.  Mr Speaker’s sim foals have thus far been primarily dirt sprinters (61% of earnings on dirt, 71% in sprints) and his sim AWD is 6.84, which is a bit of a surprise, given his on-track abilities.  Squirter CB was primarily a dirt router in her career, with most of her races coming in the 8-8.5f range, and she retired with 3 wins (2 allowance wins) in 15 career races.  3 of her foals are non-hot, non-local allowance winners, but 2 of those are stakes placed and one, Moon Squirter (Liaison), is a stakes winning dirt miler.  Most of her foals are dirt runners, with the best doing their damage in dirt miles.  Tarton Squirt (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.65) has the bloodlines to get today’s distance, and through 2 races the oddsmakers have been severely underestimating him, so this may be your last chance to get decent odds on this gelding before the betting public catches on.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for this NW2L Illinois allowance.  I don’t have a good feeling about my picks this week, but I’m going to go with (1) West of Neverland, (2) Tarton Squirt, and (3) We Say Not Today.  But if you’ve got some extra cash, 48/1 is a ridiculous price on Satellite of Hate, who may not be the best in the field, but is almost certainly not the worst (though I guess we’ll see how he does).

Lastly, a programming note – The Future Stars Series will be off for the next couple of weeks.  But we’ll be back!  And also, I’ve got an unrelated special statistical project that I’m working on and hope to be writing up for the BTB soon, if I can figure out how to properly present the data. Good luck everyone!

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      Louisiana – Alw NW2L @ 6f

2)      Louisiana – Alw NW3L @ 6f

3)      New York – Allowance @ 7f

4)      New Jersey – Alw NW3L @ 6.5f

5)      New York – Allowance @ 7f

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Jul 052019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  And that recap is…I FINALLY GOT ONE RIGHT!!!  Creed of Hefin got out of the gate quickly and grabbed the lead, but he was tracked throughout the race closely by Awesomizer.  As they entered the far turn, Creed of Hefin started to falter a bit and Awesomizer took over the lead.  From there, it was clear sailing for Awesomizer ($10.40) who grabbed the lead and held on to win by ½ length, earning an 83 SP.  Tuns O’ Kittens, who sat 4th early, capitalized on the fading Creed of Hefin and came on late, but couldn’t quite catch the winner and settled for 2ndCreed of Hefin may not have been able to keep up with the top 2, but even after fading he was still good enough to hold on for 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths behind the winner.

This week, the Future Stars Series finally looks for its first 2020 Bluegrass Derby contender!  We head to Kentucky, where 9 colts try to pick up their first allowance win in a NW2L Allowance at 7 furlongs on the dirt.  The field is:

#1 – Yankee Storm King (American Pharoah x Storm Cat x Kingmambo) – Owned by stepsutt67 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Yankee Storm King had no patience for his competition in his debut on April 1.  In that 5f MSW, he sprinted for the lead, opened up, and then eased his way to a ¾ length victory, earning a 73 SP.  That was enough for his owner to bump him up to the stakes level, where he tried a 6f dirt stakes and went off as the 7/2 favorite, but was unable to get the lead to set the early pace and then faded to 7th, earning a 70 SP.  Yankee Storm King is a scratch-bred horse who is one of 19 sim horses to share the American Pharoah x Storm Cat bloodlines.  Those 19 horses have resulted in 17 winners to date, 3 of whom are stakes winners and 1 of whom is a G2 winner.  American Pharoah more generally has been on fire both in the sim and the real world.  He is currently the #2 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 3 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) in 11 starts, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 198 runners and 138 winners to date.  Of those, 16 have earned stakes victories (4 graded stakes winners) so far (both the fewest of any of his sim crops thus far).  While the 2018 crop may not be his best, it does include American Dane, who was 2nd in the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (66% of earnings on dirt), with a slight preference towards routing that will likely become a little more preferred as he has more sim foals (his sim AWD is a 7.78). The majority of the horses are dirt sprinters.  Yankee Storm King (DI: 1.67; CD: 0.50) is looking to add to the tally of horses that share his bloodlines, but the first step to doing that is to defeat winners, and he looks like a solid bet to do that here.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Dalakhani Motor (Eavesdropper x Induction Motor [Dalakhani x Henrythenavigator]) – Owned by melmel2019 – 15/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-0; $34,844

Capsule: Through his first 3 races, Dalakhani Motor didn’t look all that special, never breaking a 65 SP or finishing better than 5th in an MSW, all with odds ranging from 16-34/1.  But that all changed in his most recent race on June 9, where he repeated the 6.5f distance for the 3rd time.  In that race, for the first time, he showed a real closing kick, coming from over 8 lengths back to win by 1-1/4 lengths at 39/1.  For the effort he earned a ridiculous 80 SP, seemingly out of nowhere, so the only question for this race is whether that was a fluke or a sign of maturity.  Dalakhani Motor is by Eavesdropper, and is the 6th foal out of 9yo mare Induction Motor.  Eavesdropper ($6,600) was a G3-placed sprinter during his racing career, and he has been standing in Libya for several years.  In the sim, Eavesdropper’s 2018 crop currently ranks #322 overall, with 26 runners and 13 winners to date.  One of those 13 is a stakes winner in an 8.5f turf race.  His sim foals have shown a slight preference for dirt (56% of earnings on dirt), but while the earnings suggest a route preference (60% of earnings in routes), the win percentages suggest a slight sprint favoritism, as does the 7.62 sim AWD, probably resulting from the fact that a significant percentage of stakes success has been in turf routes, even though his sim foals have almost double the number of wins in dirt sprints.  Induction Motor only raced 9 times in her career, and her lone win was in a $60K local maiden claimer where she was the 1/9 favorite, so she didn’t show much of a proclivity for racing.  Her foals haven’t done much either (only 2 of the 6 have an allowance win), but all of the foals have been turf runners, with a mix of routers and sprinters among them.  Dalakhani Motor (DI: 1.15; CD: 0.21) looks like he might want to be one of those routers, and if he can repeat his last performance, he may be one of the top contenders in this race.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – Ice Point (Ice Box x Simple Wish [Point Given x Nureyev]) – Owned by atwistoff – 11/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $20,220

Capsule: Ice Point looked pretty good in his debut on May 17.  In that 5.5f MSW in South Africa, Ice Point sat towards the back early but made a mid-race move, getting close to the leaders, and then easily overtook those in front and drew off to win by 1 length, earning a 70 SP at 15/1.  Ice Point is by Ice Given, and is the 7th foal out of 11yo mare Simple Wish.  Ice Box ($7,500), the #99 ranked Kentucky sire in 2018, won the 2010 Florida Derby and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby that year.  In the sim, Ice Box’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #661 overall, with 21 winners from 40 runners.  None of those horses have been successful at the stakes level, and in fact he has only had 1 stakes winner in the past 5 years.  Ice Box’s sim foals are largely dirt runners (71% of earnings on dirt), but unlike his real world running style, Ice Box’s sim foals have been sprinters thus far (61% in sprints), though his real world AWD of 7.23 indicates a longer distance for his foals than his sim 6.88 AWD.  Simple Wish won 5 of her 19 career races, all on the dirt with wins coming anywhere from 7-10.5f, though 3 of those 5 wins came at the claiming level.  As a broodmare, Simple Wish hasn’t been that impressive, and only her first foal, Cal Given (Cal Nation) even has an allowance win (in a dirt route).  The rest have only won at the maiden and/or claiming levels, with a mix of distances (mostly on the dirt though).  The Ice Box x Point Given cross has been used 1 other time in the sim in the past 5 years, but it’s a promising cross as that horse, Ice Box Ridge, was a G3–winning dirt sprinter.  Ice Point (DI: 2.43; CD: 0.58) looks to make it 2-for-2 today as he should be happy to get some extra distance to run.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Cuique Suum (Carpe Diem x Carson City x Northern Dancer) – Owned by jcasino – 6/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Cuique Suum began his career in a 6.5f dirt MSW on April 23 and didn’t disappoint.  There, he fell to the back of the 9 horse field early, but came flying late, grabbing the lead and taking the win by 1-1/4 lengths as the 5/1 5th choice, earning a 71 SP.  From there, he headed to residency company and tried the ESR Fillmore East Stakes at 6f, but he regressed a bit, breaking last and never showing a turn of foot, earning a 65 SP.  Cuique Suum is looking to bounce back here.  He is a scratch-bred son of Carpe Diem, who was crossed with a Carson City mare for the breeding.  Carpe Diem ($25,000) was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (8.5-9f) on the track, and is currently the #17 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 1 winner out of his 7 runners to have reached the track.  In the sim, Carpe Diem’s 2018 crop currently ranks #48 overall, with 84 winners out of 123 runners.  5 of those winners have found stakes success, though none of the 2018 crop have as of yet achieved a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals have a strong dirt preference (69% of earnings on dirt), while also showing a preference for sprinting (57% of earnings in sprints, 59% of wins in sprints).  His sim AWD of 7.18 also suggests a sprinting preference, but we’ll see how his real world crop looks to see if this will warrant an adjustment in the future.  Cuique Suum (DI: 3.62; CD: 0.97) was bred to sprint, so we’ll see if the added distance here will help, but if his past races are any indication he should be a little happier here.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Data Kiss (Freud x Saint Ballado x Smart Strike) – Owned by plano10 – 9/2

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Capsule: Data Kiss took the “easy” route in his debut, running in a Hot MSW at 6.5f on May 22.  The field included 7 horses, all from the same stables, as owner planoaxius decided to see which of his 2yos would be the most useful.  That honor seems to have gone to Data Kiss, who went off as the 4/1 3rd choice and sat towards the back early, but made a strong move in the stretch and pulled away to win by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a 73 SP.  Data Kiss is a scratch-bred son of Freud, out of a Saint Ballado mare.  Freud ($7,500) the #39 ranked US sire (and #1 ranked NY sire) in 2018, is a full brother to top sire Giant’s Causeway.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #130 overall, with 62 runners and 44 winners.  2 of those winners have been successful at the residency-restricted Local stakes level.  Overall, his sim foals are largely sprinters (64% of earnings in sprints), with a relatively even split between turf and dirt runners (55% on dirt), and his sim AWD of 6.69 closely tracks his real world AWD of 6.71.  This is the first time in the past 5 years that the Freud x Saint Ballado cross has been used in the sim.  Data Kiss (DI: 1.93; CD: 0.55) will try to prove that he belongs in non-hot competition and that his debut was no fluke.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Going Buckwild (Stonesider x Buckpasser Cadet [Empire Maker x Dubai Millennium]) – Owned by tiomundo4 – 15/1

Race Record: 5:1-0-1; $35,158

Capsule: Going Buckwild, the veteran of the field, was claimed for $50,000 out of his debut and broke his maiden in his first race for his new owner, in a 5f $100K Starter Allowance on February 15 where he took on 2 computer horses and 1 player-owned horse and easily cruised to a 2 length victory.  Since then, however, he has struggled in 3 allowance-level races at double digit odds in each one.  He enters this race off of a 5th place finish, where he earned his 2nd consecutive 70 SP while trying to come from the back of the pack.  Going Buckwild is the 2nd foal from 7yo Buckpasser Cadet, who was sent to the Giant’s Causeway sire Stonesider.  Buckpasser Cadet was a multiple stakes-placed filly on the track, with most of her 6 wins in 27 starts (and both stakes placings) coming in long distance turf races (14-16f-T).  Her first foal, 3yo Capo La Gala (Cape Blanco), retired after going winless in 9 starts.  Stonesider ($2,000), the #8 ranked sire in Texas in 2018, is a son of Giant’s Causeway and was 1 for 1 in his career on the track (a 5.5f MSW). His sim crops parallel his real life crops, as the 2018 sim class only has 3 runners to date, currently ranking #1,438 as 2 of those have won.  He only has 1 stakes winner since he became a sim sire, and that was in a residency-restricted local stakes race.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters (67% of earnings on dirt, 66% in sprints), which aligns with his 6.85 real world AWD and 6.61 sim AWD.  It’s unclear if a 7f dirt race is the best type of race for Going Buckwild (DI: 2.11; CD: 0.50), but he’ll try to improve off of his past races and move forward here.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – This Time Gold (Medaglia D’Oro x Northern Again [Awesome Again x Storm Bird]) – Owned by pilgrim10 – 8/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-0; $49,221

Capsule: This Time Gold began his career on the dirt, trying a 4.5f MSW on February 2 and acquitting himself pretty well, narrowly missing breaking his maiden and finishing 2nd by ¼ length.  But after a very dull 2nd start on dirt, he switched to the 6f on the turf and broke through, sitting midpack early and then just getting up to win by ¼ length, earning a 68 SP.  Unfortunately, his first try again winners in a NW2L on the turf was any dull effort, so he switches back to dirt here to see if this time he can earn gold.  This Time Gold is the 9th foal from 16yo mare Northern Again, and is by leading sire Medaglia D’Oro.  Northern Again won 5 of her 14 career starts, breaking her maiden in a dirt sprint but winning most of her races in turf routes.  Most of her sim foals have been routers, but they’ve found success – 2 are stakes winners, and 2 more are stakes-placed, with a pretty even split between those who prefer the turf and those who prefer the dirt.  Medaglia D’Oro ($200,000), the #12 ranked US sire in 2018, is equally adept in the sim, as his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #22 overall.  That sim crop includes 100 winners out of 158 runners, 9 of which have won stakes races (2 graded stakes winners).  Among those is Barbara Bites Back, winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1. His sim foals have a strong preference for routing (70% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 7.69 AWD and 8.28 sim AWD, and they have a slight favoritism towards dirt (61% on dirt).  The Medaglia D’Oro x Awesome Again cross has been used 27 times in the past 5 years, and although 23 of those have won races, only 1 is a stakes winner (a dirt sprinter).  The combination has actually shown a slight preference for routing, and a slightly greater preference for dirt racing.  This Time Gold (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.72) seems well suited for this distance and surface based on pedigree, but he’ll need to take a big step forward off of his past races to really compete here.

Watch Level: Low

#8 – Intoishe (Into Mischief x Oishe [Distorted Humor x Bernardini]) – Owned by given00 – 9/2

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Intoishe, the sponsor of the race, was a slow starter in his debut but made a big jump in race #2.  In that race, a 6.5f MSW on April 28, Intoishe sat towards the back early and moved forward late, running out of racing room just before the finish line and missing by a head, but he saw a big SP jump from 63 to 75 for the race.  The winner of that race came back to run 2nd with an 80 SP in an open allowance next time out.  Yankee Storm King, meanwhile, had no problem taking care of business in his 3rd race, sitting at the back early but closing to win by 1-1/4 length, with a 76 SP.  Intoishe is the first foal by 5yo mare Oishe, and is by Into Mischief.  Oishe was an excellent runner on the track, with 10 wins in her 22 race career.  Among those wins were 2 G2 dirt miles, which is where she did her best running.  Into Mischief ($150,000), the #4 ranked US sire in 2018, was a dirt sprinter in his racing career but he’s been known to throw a longer distance runner from time to time in the real world.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #11 overall, with 100 winners from 143 runners to date (and his 2019 crop is currently ranked #1).  Of those, only 5 have won a stakes, but 2 of those are Graded Stakes winners, including Sim Eclipse 2yo Dirt Colt of the Year Into Being Nice.  His sim foals, much like him in real life, are dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 60% in routes), though his sim AWD of 7.00 is a little longer than his real world AWD of 6.72.  Into Mischief has been bred to a Distorted Humor mare 17 times in the past 5 years, resulting in 12 winners, one of whom is a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  In fact, the overwhelming majority of those sim horses are dirt sprinters.  Intoishe (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.67) might be gearing up for a campaign in longer races, but today’s 7f distance should fit him perfectly and he is a top contender here.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Buzz Quality (Uncle Mo x Deputy Cat [Deputy Minister x Storm Cat]) – Owned by smokeglack – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $20,220

Capsule: Buzz Quality struggled mightily in his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW at 6.5f, where he broke towards the back and stayed there.  But he came back 1 month later, on May 30, and showed that he just needed to understand what it was like to race.  In that 5.5f MSW, he broke midpack early but picked off horses in the stretch, making his way through the pack and ultimately winning by ¾ length, earning a 68 SP.  Buzz Quality is by top sire Uncle Mo, and is the 10th foal out of stellar sim mare Deputy Cat.  Uncle Mo ($125,000), the #13 ranked US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-8.5f and has been a top real world sire for years.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #10 overall, with 127 winners from 185 runners to date.  7 of those have won stakes races, but only 1 thus far has earned a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals strongly prefer the dirt (75% of earnings on dirt), though there is a pretty even split between sprints and routes (7.37 sim AWD), which is a little surprising given Uncle Mo’s real world preference for routers (7.38 AWD; note that US AWDs are typically lower because of the prevalence of sprints).  Deputy Cat is the best producing sim mare that the Future Stars Series has profiled this year.  On the track, she was a 4 time stakes winning (and 9-time stakes placed) dirt sprinter who won 16 of her 56 career races.  In the breeding shed, she’s been even better, especially recently, with 5 of her 10 foals being stakes winners (and a 6th being stakes placed).  Among those are 5yo Buzzing Quality (Quality Road), the 2017 Sim Eclipse Award winning Dirt Sprinter, G1-winning 4yo dirt sprinter Fade Back to Black (Tapit), and G2-winning 3yo What Ever Ya Like (Union Rags), who is currently the #2-ranked 3yo dirt route colt who was 15th in the 2019 Bluegrass Derby.  Uncle Mo has been bred to a Deputy Minister mare 15 times in the past 5 years, resulting in 12 winners to date, one of whom is a G2-winning dirt sprinter, which is in line with the fact that most of the Uncle Mo x Deputy Minister sim horses are primarily dirt sprinters.  Buzz Quality’s (DI: 1.00; CD: 0.00) pedigree alone would make him the favorite in this race and a potential star in the future (as a behind-the-scenes aside, his pedigree alone is what put this race into the series; just under half of the total points assigned to this race are from his pedigree alone), but his on track performance may need to take a step up to really be competitive.

Watch Level: High

In my attempt to go on a 2-race winning streak, I’m struck by the fact that there seems to be almost no pace in this race.  And therefore, I’m gonna take the only horse who looks like he’s interested in being anywhere near the front half of the field.  So, I’m going with Yankee Storm King to win.  After that, I’ll take the sponsor Intoishe, followed by the deep closer who came out of nowhere in his last race in Dalakhani Motor.  Good luck to everyone!

Other races to watch this weekend:

1)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f-T

2)      Louisiana – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f

3)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6f

4)      Texas – Alw NW3L @ 7.5f-T

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f

Views (199)

Jun 282019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  Crying Allure got out to set the early pace, but she was quickly challenged by Marylebone and those two would battle for the lead.  It didn’t take long before Marylebone stuck her neck in front.  From there, there was nothing anyone could do.  Marylebone ($11.20) opened up a 1-1/2 length lead and was never really threatened, winning by 1-1/4 lengths an earning an 80 SP.  Primetime Kameha, who had stalked the early pace, stayed pretty consistent throughout the race and was a well clear 2nd, with a 78 SP.  Lingering Drama and Lope Cartoon both came running from the back, with Lingering Drama getting first run and just narrowly edging out Lope Cartoon, 3-1/2 and 3-3/4 lengths behind the winner, respectively.

This week, the Future Stars Series is finally going to check out the colts! (Though that’s only because I was tired of handling only 2yo fillies…The top 2 races this week, as noted below, are once again races for Fillies).  The Future Stars Series heads to New York, where 7 colts try their luck in a NW3L Allowance at 7 furlongs on the turf.  The field is:

#1 – Tuns O’ Kittens (Kitten’s Joy x Tuns O’ Fun [Distorted Humor x Storm Cat]) – Owned by dragonrider8 – 5/2 (f)

Race Record: 4:2-2-0; $87,290

Capsule: Tuns O’ Kittens, the sponsor of this race, has been very consistent in his 4 previous races, running first or second in each of those.  After breaking his maiden in his debut on February 14 in a 6f dirt MSW, he proceeded to run 2nd in back-to-back NW2L allowances on the dirt at 6-6.5f, showing a slight SP improvement each time.  Tuns O’ Kittens comes into this race off of his best effort yet, as a switch to turf back on May 26 saw him duel for the lead early and explode late, taking the 6.5f-T NW2L allowance by 2-1/2 lengths with a 76 SP.  Tuns O’ Kittens is by Kitten’s Joy, and is the 5th foal out of G3-winning mare Tuns O’ Fun.  Tuns O’ Fun won 7 of her 25 races, all in dirt routes-long races, and although she proved to be a good longer distance runner (with 3 stakes wins at 10-12f), her coup de grace was in her second career race, where she took The Adam’s Apple-G3 at 8f on the dirt.  Her first two foals were both very successful runners, as both were two-time stakes winners in dirt routes, though her two more recent foals both retired without a win.  Kitten’s Joy ($75,000) was the #1 ranked US sire in 2018 and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #46 overall.  That crop includes 74 winners from 146 runners, and although there are 6 stakes winners among them (mostly in turf routes), none have won graded stakes yet.  In general, Kitten’s Joy foals are turf routers, with 75% of earnings on turf and 72% in routes, which is probably in line with his 7.82 real world AWD (given the number of his foals that run in the US) and does line up with his 8.69 sim AWD. Kitten’s Joy has been bred to a Distorted Humor mare 17 times over the past 5 years, with 5 of those earning stakes victories (and 1 3-time Graded Stakes winner), all in turf routes, which seems to be the ideal type of race for this bloodline.  Tuns O’ Kittens (DI: 2.69; CD: 0.75) is looking to buck the trend of his dam’s family, but conforming to his sire-led bloodlines, by taking to the turf, but it certainly looks like he has potential to succeed here today.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Broadworld (Ruler of the World x Kodi [Kodiac (GB) x Broad Brush]) – Owned by lightng115 – 3/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $18,860

Capsule: Broadworld took the sim world by storm in his debut on April 14, going off as the 3/1 favorite in a field of 11 for a 6.5f-T MSW and he proved the oddsmakers right, breaking towards the back of the pack early but coming on late, grabbing the lead early in the stretch and pulling away to win by 1 length.  That win earned him a 76 SP, and so he made the jump to stakes company and acquitted himself very nicely.  Against more experienced 2yos, he again closed from towards the back and gained on the leaders, but came up 2-1/4 lengths short, finishing 5th with a 75 SP.  Broadworld is by Ruler of the World, and is the 3rd foal out of 6yo mare Kodi.  Ruler of the World ($10,000) was a G1-winning turf router currently standing in Ireland.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #217 overall, with 47 winners from 105 runners.  One of those winners is a multiple stakes winner as a turf sprinter (who is also G3-placed at 9f-T).  Ruler of the World’s sim foals have a strong preference for turf (73% of earnings on turf) but only have a slight routing preference (56% of earnings on turf, 8.29 sim AWD).  Ruler of the World has 4 sim winners from 5 runners with Kodiac as the DS, mostly as sprinters (2 on turf, 1 on dirt).  Kodi was not much of a runner on the track, as she spent much of her career at the claiming level, and her 3 career wins (from 16 races) all came in turf sprints.  Her first two foals haven’t been much on the track either, with a combined 2 wins in 27 races.  Broadworld (DI: 0.88; CD: 0.00) looks to buck that trend here, and he is well positioned to do it.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Fastnet Quality (Fastnet Rock (AUS) x Elusive Quality x Redoute’s Choice) – Owned by massanewbreed – 7/1

Race Record: 5:2-1-0; $55,490

Capsule: Fastnet Quality is the most experienced horse in the race, with 5 career races already under his belt.  He broke his maiden at 5.5f on the turf in race #2, back on February 23, where he broke in the back early but came flying late, earning a 65 SP.  He moved up to stakes company in his next 2 races, running similarly to the maiden score and just missing a stakes placing in his second try, at 5.5f-T, finishing 4th.  Fastnet Quality comes into this race off of a win in a NW1x allowance, where he went off as the 4/5 favorite in a 5.5f-T race and easily took the lead in the stretch, winning by 1 length with a career high 69 SP.  Fastnet Quality is a scratch-bred colt from Fastnet Rock, out of an Elusive Quality mare.  Fastnet Rock ($70,000), the #11 EU sire and #3 Australian sire in 2018, was the champion Australian sprinter in 2005 but in the sim, his horses seem to prefer slightly longer races (60% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 8.65 AWD (8.03 AWD in the sim).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #31 overall, with 99 winners from 134 runners, including 3 turf route graded stakes winners (2 at 8f-T, 1 at 10f-T).  Overall, Fastnet Rock’s sim foals have an unsurprisingly strong turf preference (80% of earnings on turf). The Fastnet Rock x Elusive Quality cross has been very successful in the sim over the past 5 years, as 2 of the 5 horses with those bloodlines have won stakes races, both in longer turf races (one in turf routes, one in long distance turf races).  Fastnet Quality (DI: 2.64; CD: 0.65) is a closer and that would seem to suggest a desire to run longer, but his best races thus far have been at 5.5f-T so we’ll see if he can prove that stretching out will help here.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – No Free Meals (Congaree x Shin Splint [Danehill Dancer x Deep Impact]) – Owned by mschweitzer74 – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: No Free Meals, the least experienced horse in the field, made his debut on June 1 in a 5.5f turf Local Texas MSW.  Taking on a field of 4 as the 3/5 favorite, No Free Meals broke last early, but got moving late and pulled away to win by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a 65 SP.  No Free Meals is the only foal from 7yo he-mare Shin Splint, who was sent to Congaree for this breeding.  Shin Splint won 6 of his 33 career races, all at the allowance level and all in turf routes, and throughout his career he showed an almost endless supply of stamina, winning everywhere from 8.25-15f, all on the turf.  Congaree ($3,000), the #3 ranked Texas sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-9f (including 3rd place finishes in the 2001 Kentucky Derby and Preakness).  His 2018 sim crop is relatively small, with only 15 runners, 8 of whom have won, ranking #1,060 overall.  In his sim stud career, he has only had 1 graded stakes winner, and has had no stakes winners in the past 5 years.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters, with 64% of earnings on dirt and 60% in sprints, with a 6.69 sim AWD and a 6.74 real world AWD.  No Free Meals (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.92) is bred to sprint, and although his debut speed figure is a little below the best in the field here, it was a 4 horse local MSW that he dominated and there’s every possibility that he’ll make a leap here.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Creed of Hefin (Jimmy Creed x Hefin [Pioneerof the Nile x Malibu Moon]) – Owned by zanthulus – 9/2

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $35,755

Capsule: Creed of Hefin struggled in his debut at 6f on the good turf on March 9, tiring to finish 6th, but he bounced back in a big way in race #2 when he finally caught a firm turf.  In that 6.5f-T MSW, Creed of Hefin set the pace and never looked back, opening up by 2 lengths and hanging on to win by ½ length, earning a 74 SP (2nd, 3rd, and 6th in that race each came back to break their maidens next time out).  His most recent race saw him duel for the lead early and briefly take it, before being outrun to the wire and finishing 2nd.  Creed of Hefin is the son of Jimmy Creed, and is the first foal from 6yo mare Hefin.  Jimmy Creed ($20,000), a G1-winning dirt sprinter, was the #99 ranked US sire (and #5 ranked second crop sire) in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #309 overall, with 23 of 33 runners having won thus far, with 2 of those being victorious in stakes races (both on dirt, with one in sprints, one in routes).  Much like him as a runner, Jimmy Creed’s sim foals are largely dirt sprinters, with 70% of earnings on dirt and 79% in sprints, lining up with his 6.64 real life AWD and 6.39 sim AWD.  Hefin was a winner of 6 of her 39 career races, mostly coming in turf routes in the 9-10f range, which is where she spent the bulk of her career.  Pioneerof The Nile mares have been sent to Jimmy Creed 5 times over the past 5 years, but thus far only 1 of those have won an allowance race.  Creed of Hefin (DI: 4.33; CD: 0.88) looks to become #2 here, as he is well suited for this turf sprint and has the consistent improvement in his past to put his best hoof forward today.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Awesomeizer (Optimizer x Fawsome [Awesome Again x Giant’s Causeway]) – Owned by Parramatta – 4/1

Race Record: 3:2-0-1; $57,670

Capsule: Awesomizer began his career back on January 30 with a very strong 1-1/4 length victory in a 5f turf MSW in Queensland, where he sat up with the pacesetters early and pulled away late, earning a 70 SP.  After flying across the globe to NY and finishing 3rd next time out (trailing only 2 horses that are both stakes placed), he stretched out to 6f-T for his 3rd race and took a big step forward, sitting just off the early pace and then assuming it late, winning by ½ length with a field-high 79 SP.  The 2nd place horse in that race (the pacesetter) came back to run 2nd next time out in a G3 at 5f-T.  Awesomizer is by Optimizer, and is the 11th foal out of 16yo mare Fawsome.  Optimizer ($5,000), a multiple graded stakes winning turf router (and multiple graded stakes placed dirt router) entered stud in 2017 so his real foals have not yet reached the track.  Optimizer’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #540 overall, with 22 winners from 46 runners.  None of his foals have won a stakes race yet in the sim, but based on his real life preferences, it’s possible the horses will get better as they start to run longer races.  For now, his sim foals have preferred turf sprints (67% of earnings on turf, 73% in sprints), with a 6.31 sim AWD. Fawsome never did much on the track in her 33 race career, winning only twice, both in turf sprints.  Her foals, however, have faired better, with most having multiple allowance wins (primarily on the turf) and one, Awesomahler (Mahler (GB)), a stakes winner (and G2-placed) at 10f on the turf.  Awesomizer (DI: 2.33; CD: 0.53) will try to follow that one’s lead as he stretches out to 7f-T here hopefully on his way to bigger and better things.

Watch Level: High

#7 – A Kings Invasion (Invader (AUS) x Ameha Akna [King Kamehameha x High Chaparral (IRE)]) – Owned by summerset26 – 7/1

Race Record: 3:2-0-1; $34,150

Capsule: A Kings Invasion debuted at 4.5f in a Hot turf MSW on January 17 as the even money second choice, but he showed that he was no second choice when he sat 3rd early and then moved late, winning by 1 length.  To prove that the win was no fluke, he came back to go 2-for-2 next time out in a stalking style in a 6f turf NW2L allowance.  A Kings Invasion enters this race off of a career best 73 SP, when he stalked the pace early in a 6.5f-T NW3L and finished 3rd, 2-1/2 lengths behind the winner (who came back to run 2nd in an allowance on the dirt next time out).  A Kings Invasion is the 5th foal from 8yo mare Ameha Akna, who was sent to Invader (AUS).  Amena Akna was a turf router who won 2 of her 15 career races, both at 9.5f on the turf and made two failed attempts in graded stakes.  Her foals have also largely been turf runners, though her best has been more of a sprinter than anything else.  Invader, a G1-winning sprinter in Australia and son of Snitzel, entered stud in 2018 so we don’t have much real world data yet.  In the sim, he wasn’t that popular last year, with only 2 runners from the 2018 class currently ranking #3,002 overall (one of those 2 is a winner).  Only 3 of his 10 foals in the sim thus far have won a race, and A Kings Invasion is the only multiple winner in the group.    A Kings Invasion (DI: 0.60; CD: -0.13) may have the bloodlines for this distance and has been improving in each of his 3 races to date, so he’ll look to take another step forward here.

Watch Level: Medium

That’s the field for this 7 horse allowance, and overall, the field looks pretty evenly matched.  My completely meaningless predictions?  I’m going with (1) Awesomizer; (2) Tuns O’ Kittens; (3) Creed of Hefin.  Good luck to the runners!

Other Races to Watch This Weekend:

1)      Spain – Alw NW3L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)

2)      California – Alw NW2L @ 7f (Fillies)

3)      Florida – Alw NW2L @ 7f

4)      California – Alw NW3L @ 7f-T

5)      Louisiana – Local Alw NW3L @ 4.5f-T

Views (233)

Jun 212019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  2 time winner Golden Temptress bolted out of the gate but was joined at the front by Livincal and Big Band Channel, setting a solid pace in the 7f race.  Those three stayed out front for a little while, but the pace got to all of them and they dropped off at the halfway point.  From there, All We Hear Is took over the lead, but that lead was short lived, as No Nay Spirit came with a big move from the middle of the pack.  No Nay Spirit ($14.40) grabbed the lead in the stretch and pulled away, drawing off to win by 1-1/2 lengths with an 82 SP.  All We Can Hear managed to narrowly hang on for second, just edging out Damardal.

I’m not sure why, but it seems that since the Future Stars Series has switched to 2yos, it has found that the best 2yo fields are fillies.  I’ve got some theories on this (is there something amiss in my code?  Is it that there are fewer filly-only races, so the fields are larger?  Is it really just coincidence?).  But the result is that, for the 4th week in a row, we stick with the fairer sex.  We stay in Berkshire, England this week, where 11 fillies try to tackle 7 furlongs on the turf in an Allowance race.  The field is:

#1 – Cathedral Cove (Sir Percy (GB) x Continuity Sioux [High Chaparral (IRE) x Pivotal]) – Owned by drivelhead002 – 12/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $24,456

Capsule: Cathedral Cove debuted in a Local MSW on February 24 at 6f on the turf, and at 13/1 odds she stalked the pace early and got up late, sneaking into the lead to win by a head with a 67 SP.  She came back 2 months later in a NW2L at 6.5f and stalked the pace again, but faltered a little late and settled for 5th, though she was only 2-1/2 lengths behind the winner, who would come back next time out to run 3rd in a G3.  Cathedral Cove is the 6th foal from 9yo mare Continuity Sioux, a winner of 1 of her 13 career races.  That win came at 7f on the turf, though she put up some decent allowance runs at distances as long as 9f before moving to the claiming ranks and then retiring.  Her first couple of foals had talent on the track, as both were stakes placed, one in long distance turf races, and one in turf sprints (including a 3rd place finish in a 7f-T G2).  Unfortunately, none of the next 4 siblings of Cathedral Cove have done anything on the track, all spending most of their time in the claiming ranks and rarely finding the winner’s circle.  Cathedral Cove’s sire, Sir Percy ($7,000), was the winner of the 2006 Epsom Derby at 12f-T and was the #95 ranked EU sire in 2018.  The sim hasn’t had much interest in him as a sire though, as he’s a bargain price and his 2018 crop consists of his standard 15 runners.  Only 5 of those have won, leaving him currently ranked #1,886 for the year.  Overall, his horses are largely turf runners that like to run long (69% of earnings on turf, 61% in routes), possibly explaining the low winning percentage (especially compared to earlier years), which is in line with both Sir Percy’s actual running style and his real world 10.09 AWD. There is one other sim horse with the similar Sir Percy x High Chaparral bloodlines, but he has only 1 win in 11 starts.  Cathedral Cove (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.00) is bred for long distance running, so extra distance should help here, but she might need to take a step forward from her last race to compete here.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Lingering Drama (Odyssey Moon x Isolationism [Shamardal x Halo]) – Owned by redsleeps – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $16,860

Capsule: Lingering Drama debuted on May 15 in a 6f-T MSW, and after breaking towards the back of the field early, she moved late and under a strong urging by her jockey, she got up to win by a neck, earning a 70 SP.  Lingering Moon is the daughter of Odyssey Moon, and is the 8th foal from 15yo mare Isolationism.  Isolationism wasn’t much on the race course, with only 2 wins in 21 career starts, having spent most of her career on the dirt.  None of her foals have achieved all that much success either, though 3 are allowance-level winners, with all of her foals seeming to prefer turf over dirt.  Interestingly, her 3yo foal Everybodywantssome (Sulamani (IRE)) has yet to make his debut.  Odyssey Moon ($8800) was a G3-winning turf sprinter in Australia in 2017, and he entered stud in 2018 so his first foals have not yet reached the real track.  In the sim, his debut 2018 crop currently ranks #354 overall, with 44 runners and 21 winners to date.  One of those horses, Moonlight Well, is a 3-time stakes winner, ranging from 5.5f to 8f (all on turf).  His sim foals have raced almost entirely on turf (he only has 1 dirt winner thus far), and although it’s too early to tell exactly what his best sim distance would be, the fact that he was a sprinter in real life makes it seem likely that his foals will prefer sprinting once we get enough data. The second-year sire has been sent to a Shamardal mare 5 times already, with the 4 that have hit the track all having broken their maidens in turf sprints.  Lingering Drama’s (DI: 1.67, CD: 0.42) pedigree, however, suggests that she might prefer slightly longer races.  We’ll see if she can move forward as she stretches out a bit more today.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – Vestida De Fiesta (Oasis Dream (GB) x Came Curlin [Camelot (GB) x Curlin]) – Owned by cavieres – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $45,422

Capsule: It took a few tries for Vestida De Fiesta to break her maiden, but she made a big jump in her 3rd career race on May 16 to do it.  In that 6.5f MSW, she was part of the pace duel early, but put away the other pacesetters late and opened up to win by 1 length at 13/1, earning a 77 SP.  Vestida De Fiesta is by Oasis Dream, out of 5yo mare Came Curlin.  Oasis Dream ($30,000), the 2002 champion 2yo in England and the #28 ranked European sire in 2018, was a multiple-G1 winning sprinter in his career.  His 2018 sim crop is a little better, as it currently ranks #16 overall, with 106 winners from 158 runners.  Among those are 6 graded stakes winners (half of his 13 total stakes winners), mostly in turf miles; his 2019 crop already includes 1 turf sprinting stakes winner as well, as that crop is currently ranked #14 overall (27 winners from 59 runners).  His sim foals heavily prefer turf, with 82% of earnings coming on the sod, but they are pretty evenly split distance-wise, (52% of earnings are in routes, but 55% of the wins are in sprints).  Vestida De Fiesta is Came Curlin’s first foal.  Came Curlin wasn’t much on the track, with just 2 wins in 30 career starts, both coming in back-to-back races on the dirt at the claiming level (a $20K MCL at 6f and a $100K NW2L Claimer at 8.5f).  Vestida De Fiesta (DI: 1.09, CD: 0.08) is bred to run long, so she should like the additional ½ furlong here, and with the improvements she’s shown in each race thus far, she stands a strong chance here.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Royal Status (Wootton Bassett (GB) x Gone In Sixty [Medaglia D’Oro x Spinning World]) – Owned by riversdale – 10/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $21,360

Capsule: Royal Status debuted in a 5f-T Local MSW on April 2 and dropped to the back early but came with a late move, finishing just 1-3/4 lengths short in 3rd.  So for her second start, at 6f-T on May 13, she was put closer to the front, only 1-1/2 lengths off early, and she repeated that same late move, this time pulling away to win by 1-1/2 as the 4/1 second choice and earning a 70 SP.  Royal Status is the first foal from 10yo mare Gone In Sixty, who was sent to French sire Wootton Bassett.  Gone In Sixty wasn’t all that successful on the track, as she won only 2 of her 21 career races (both in the 8.5f-9f dirt range), though she ran pretty consistently throughout her career.  Wootton Bassett ($40,000) was a G1 winner at 7f on the turf during his racing days, and he was the #75 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop is his best to date, as players finally realized that he might have some talent, and the crop currently ranks #95 overall, with 65 winners from 94 runners (those 94 runners are more than his previous 4 years combined).  Only one of those has found stakes success, as a turf sprinter (only Wootton Bassett’s 2nd sim stakes winner overall).  Turf sprinting is where his sim foals find most of their luck (68% of earnings on turf, 67% in sprints), though his real life AWD of 8.31 suggests that he might be better suited to throwing milers.  Royal Status (DI: 1.91, CD: 0.44) looks like she might like a slightly longer race than today’s, but adding an extra furlong should be good for her and it wouldn’t be much of a shock to see her improve and finish strong.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Ravn Views (Global View x Ms Ravina [Mr. Greeley x Smile]) – Owned by deeprock – 27/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $21,232

Capsule: After a failed dirt effort in her debut, Ravn Views switched to the turf and took a SAF-local MSW at 5.5f in her 2nd start on April 13, sitting just off the pace and then propelling to victory at 18/1, winning by 1 length with a 61 SP.  Her SP improved slightly in her most recent start, a NW2L at 6f, to a 65 SP but she was unable to put a run together and finished 6th, beaten almost 5 lengths.  Ravn Views is the 7th foal from 13yo mare Ms Ravina, by Global View.  Global View, a son of Galileo, was a G2 winner at 8.5f on the turf during his racing career, and currently stands in South Africa where his first foals are yearlings in 2019.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #563 overall, with 18 winners from 41 runners, but while the numbers are low, they do include Darkquick, winner of The Hogwarts-G2 (11f-T), as well as a 3yo gelding with a stakes record of 7:1-6-0, all at 5-5.5f on the turf.  Global View’s sim foals thus far have a strong turf sprinting preference, with 68% of earnings on turf and 71% in sprints.  Ms Ravina earned the only win of her 13 race career in a $15K maiden claimer at 5f on the dirt.  Her other foals have not been too successful either, with only 5 combined wins among all of Ravn Views’ siblings; 4 of those 5 coming in turf sprints.  Ravn Views (DI: 1.00; CD: 0.17) pedigree suggests that she might like longer races, but she seems like she might be up against it today.

Watch Level: Low

#6 – Primetime Kameha (King Kamehameha x Primetime Dansil [Dansili (GB) x Daylami (IRE)]) – Owned by ss89 – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $39,795

Capsule: Primetime Kameha broke her maiden at first asking on March 9, when she took on a field of 12 in a 6f MSW.  There, she dueled for the lead early, grabbed it in the far turn, and drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 68 SP.  Her second start was a 2-horse race, as Primetime Kameha dueled the pacesetter the entire way around but came up on the short end of the stick, finishing 2nd by 1 length with a 69 SP (though that rival came back to run 2nd in a turf stakes in her next race).  Primetime Kameha is by King Kamehameha, and is the 2nd foal from 6yo mare Primetime Dansil.  Primetime Dansil was a stellar race horse, and parlayed her win in the 2015 Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf-G1 (8f-T) and 2 other turf mile graded stakes wins into the 2015 2yo Turf Filly Sim Eclipse Award.  After retiring at the end of 2018, she foaled her first foal, by Frankel, who made a decent run last time out at 10.5f-T but is 0 for 4 lifetime.  King Kamehameha, the #2 ranked Japanese sire in 2018, was the champion Japanese 3yo in 2004 who won graded stakes anywhere from 8-12f on the turf.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #54 overall, with 74 winners from 110 runners, including 4 stakes winners (3 of those graded stakes winners – 2 at 8f-T, 1 at 6f-T).  His sim foals are largely turf routers (79% of earnings on turf, 77% in routes).  The King Kamehameha x Dansili cross has been used in the sim 12 times in the past 5 years, producing 10 winners, mostly in turf routes, including 1 stakes winner and 3 stakes-placed horses, all in turf routes.  Much like those others, Primetime Kameha (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.20) is bred to run longer distances, so 7f shouldn’t be a problem here.  She just hopes that she has some of her mother’s talent on the track.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Marylebone (Galileo (IRE) x Inner City Lunacy [City Zip x Bernardini]) – Owned by drivel1 – 9/2

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Marylebone went off as the 7/2 favorite in her debut on April 4 and didn’t disappoint, breaking on top of the field of 12 in a 6.5f turf MSW in Berkshire-ENG and never looking back.  She opened up as many as 3 lengths before gearing down and coasting to a 1-1/2 length victory, earning a 68 SP.  Marylebone is the first foal of 5yo mare Inner City Lunacy.  Inner City Lunacy was a G3-winning turf miler (and she was a head away from winning the 2017 The Irish 1000 Guineas-G1 (8f-T)) who won 9 of her 20 career races, including 4 dirt miles and 5 turf miles.  Marylebone’s sire, Galileo, doesn’t need much of an introduction, as he’s one of the world’s top sires and was the #2 ranked EU sire in 2018 (with an AWD of 10.31).  That top class nature covers the sim as well, as his 2018 class currently ranks #18 overall, with 208 runners and 137 winners.  Of those, 10 have earned stakes wins and 2 have graded stakes wins thus far, but those numbers will likely continue to rise, as Galileo’s sim foals, much like his real life foals, love longer distances (79% of earnings on turf, 78% in routes).  Much like the other foals, Marylebone (DI: 0.90, CD: 0.10) should improve with added distance, and although this distance might still be too short for her, she just toyed with the field in her first race so it’s unclear how good this filly could become.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Crying Allure (Gold Allure x Arusha Accord [Street Cry x Sadler’s Wells]) – Owned by astinator7 – 7/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $49,456

Capsule: Crying Allure has narrowly set the pace in each of her first 3 races.  In her debut on February 22 at 6f-T, she tired and finished 4th.  In her 2nd race, she looked stronger but was outrun to the finish and ran 2nd.  In her 3rd race, she finally held on, taking the 6.5f-T MSW by ¾ length with a 72 SP.  Crying Allure is by Gold Allure, out of stakes-winning 11yo mare Arusha Accord.  Gold Allure, the #8 Japanese sire in 2018, sadly passed away in 2017 but was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (mainly in the 10f range).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #634, with 19 winners from 29 runners (no stakes winners).  His sim foals are pretty evenly split in distance and surface based on earnings, though that’s skewed by the 5-time graded stakes-winning turf router Silver Way. By the numbers, Gold Allure’s sim foals tend to favor sprinting (with a very slight edge to the dirt).  Arusha Record, the dame of Crying Allure, won 16 of her 42 career races, all on the turf, with her best result coming in a 6.5f turf stakes that she won by 2 lengths.  She hasn’t quite passed down that talent to her first 4 foals, however.  None of the 3 have won a race at the allowance level, with all of their wins coming on the turf (some in routes, some in sprints).  The Gold Allure x Street Cry cross has been used 8 times in the past 5 years, producing 7 winners who are mostly sprinters, including 1 graded stakes winning turf sprinter.  Although the cross has produced some sprinters, Crying Allure’s pedigree (DI: 1.32, CD: 0.36) suggests that she might like longer racing.  Look for her to go for the lead again here and try to hang on late.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Otto Seattle (Dubawi (IRE) x Benaroya Hall [Smart Strike x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by merrychristmas – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: The sponsor of this race, Otto Seattle had an excellent debut on May 8, when she took on a full field of 14 in a 6.5f-T MSW here in Berkshire as the 4/1 favorite.  In that race, she sat midpack early and at first looked to be in trouble, but she turned it on at the halfway point and caught the pacesetter that had gotten loose, winning by ¾ length (it was another 3 lengths back to 3rd) and earning a 73 SP.  The 3rd place horse in that race came back to break her maiden next time out, so that maiden race is looking pretty strong.  Otto Seattle is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Benaroya Hall, and the 2nd of those to be sent to Dubawi.  Benaroya Hall was a good runner on the track, with 7 wins in 22 career starts, coming almost exclusively in dirt routes (mainly the 9f-10f range), though she showed strong abilities on the turf as well.  Although she never picked up a stakes victory, she was 2-time stakes placed, with both of those coming in turf routes.  Otto Seattle is the full sister to 3yo filly Otto Benny (Dubawi), the 2nd foal from Benaroya Hall, who is currently the #18 ranked 3yo turf filly router and is multiple graded stakes placed at 8f on the turf, including a 2nd place finish in the 2018 Filly Grand Prix-G1 (8f-T) (she ran 7th in the Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf).  Dubawi ($250,000) in general is an excellent sire, as he was the #1 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop isn’t quite as strong, but is still solid, ranking #21 overall, with 105 winners from 167 runners, and the crop gets better as the distances get longer.  Thus far, two of those horses have found graded stakes victories, both in turf miles, and he has 7 other stakes winners in the crop to date; in fact, a ridiculous 42% of all sim Dubawi foals that have raced in a turf route stakes in the past 5 years have won.  Dubawi’s sim foals are primarily turf routers, with 71% of earnings on turf and 78% in routes, which goes a bit against his real life AWD of 8.76, though he’s still a route sire (his sim AWD is 8.93).  By stretching out to 7f here, Otto Seattle (DI: 2.43, CD: 0.67) looks to be reaching her peak distance, and I would expect her to acquaint herself to this class of horses very well.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Bony Day (New Year’s Day x Distortabone [Distorted Humor x Interrex (CAN)]) – Owned by sixesplus – 31/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-2; $20,170

Capsule: Bony Day began her career in a 4.5f hot MSW on dirt, where she ran a closing 3rd of 5, but the winner of that race, Extreme Seeker, is 4 for 4 in her career, and is currently the #1 ranked 2yo turf filly, as she has a G2 win on turf and a G3 win on dirt.  After 1 more 3rd place effort, Bony Day switched to turf and broke her maiden on May 11 in a 5.5f turf MSW, where the 12/1 shot sat towards the back of the 8 horse field early and came on late, getting up to win by 1 length and earning a 63 SP.  Bony Day is by New Year’s Day out of 20yo mare Distortabone.  Distortabone only ran twice in her career, finishing up the track both times, but she has proven to be a capable sim broodmare.  Of her previous 10 foals, one is a G3 winning (and 4-time stakes winning) turf sprinter, and another is a 2-time stakes winning turf sprinter (and G3-placed at 8f).  Most of her foals have preferred sprinting, while there seems to be a split between turf and dirt.  New Year’s Day, meanwhile, was the winner of the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and seems to have passed that on to his sim foals, who show a slight preference for dirt over turf (53% of earnings on dirt), though they have been more likely to be sprinters (59% in sprints).  New Year’s Day moved to Brazil in 2019, but previously stood in Kentucky and although his first two crops did not crack the US rankings, he is currently ranked #72 in the US in 2019, mainly as a result of his “crossing the line in the Kentucky Derby first” colt, Maximum Security.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #438, with 14 winners from 27 runners, though only 1 has found a stakes placing yet (at a turf mile).  The speed figures to date may be a little lower than the top here, but Bony Day (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.83) looks like she likes sprinting and is headed in the right direction.

Watch Level: Medium

#11Lope Cartoon (Lope De Vega x Invincible Lonhro (Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Theatrical) – Owned by harrylan4 – 5/1

Race Record: 2:2-0-0; $36,360

Capsule: Lope Cartoon enters this race as the only multiple winner in the field.  After stalking the pace in her debut at 6f-T on March 29, she came on late and drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths, giving the 5/2 favorite a 72 SP for the win, and she repeated last time out in a Local NW2L allowance, winning by 2 lengths with a 69 SP.  Lope Cartoon is by Lope De Vega ($80,000), the #13 ranked EU sire in 2018.  Lope De Vega’s 2018 sim crop hasn’t quite caught up to the real life sire, as they currently ranking #168 overall, with 79 runners and 48 winners, 3 of those scoring at the stakes level.  His sim foals show a strong preference for the turf (76% of earnings on turf), but are pretty middle-ground when it comes to distances, which makes sense given Lope De Vega’s real life AWD of 8.04 (though on the numbers, there is a slight preference in the sim for sprinting, as 53% of his foals wins have come in sprints and his sim AWD is 7.53).  Lope Cartoon is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Invincible Lonhro, who won 3 of her 18 career races, all in the 9.5-10.5f range with most of her success coming on turf.  Her first foal didn’t do much in her 11 race career, but her second foal is 2 for 7 to date, looking like a solid turf sprinter.  The Lope De Vega x Invincible Spirit has been pretty successful, with 7 of the 8 foals finding the winner’s circle (5 at the allowance level), all on the turf, and 1 stakes winning turf sprinter among the group.  Lope Cartoon (DI: 1.29, CD: 0.13) looks to be bred for longer distances, but as the only horse in this field who has proven that she can beat winners, she’s got a decent chance today.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field of 11.  Honestly, this one seems wide open – I think any of these horses has a shot.  So, with that, I’m gonna go with: (1) Otto Seattle; (2) Lope Cartoon; (3) Lingering Drama.  Good luck!

Other Races to watch this weekend:

1)      Minnesota – Allowance @ 7f (Fillies)

2)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T

3)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7f (Fillies)

4)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 7f

5)      Newmarket (ENG) – Alw NW2L @ 5.5f-T

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Jun 142019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  Prince of Sealand shot out of the gate like a rocket, setting the early pace in the 6.5f race.  Road To Heroes sat in great position just off of the pacesetter and looked dangerous throughout the race.  But as they hit the top of the stretch, it was Traffic Ride ($10.10), flying from well back, who got up and took over the lead.  Traffic Ride took the win by 1 length, earning a 78 SP for the effort.  Road To Heroes couldn’t keep up with the winner, but held on tight and narrowly edged out stalking Crafty Beauty in a photo for 2ndCrafty Beauty finished 3rd, and it was another ½ length back to Prince of Sealand in 4th.

On an administrative note, this week the Future Stars Series is making a slight change.  In an attempt to shorten these articles (which are getting way too long), and because there’s so little racing history with these 2yos, I’m combining the “Race History”, “Pedigree”, and “Expectations” into one paragraph called “Capsule”.  Is it still too long?  Probably (there’s a lot to talk about when it comes to pedigrees).  But it’s better.  So without further ado, this week the Future Stars Series travels to Berkshire – England, where a field of 13 fillies tries out the newly unlocked 7f distance in a turf allowance.  The field is:

#1 – No Nay Spirit (No Nay Never x I’m A Kayak [Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Galileo (IRE)] – Owned by harrylan – 6/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $46,370

Capsule: No Nay Spirit broke very slowly in her debut on February 16, but closed to finish 2nd in a 6f-T MSW with a 74 SP, so for her 2nd race she was stretched out to 6.5f-T and she responded in kind, dropping well back early but flying late to win by 1-1/2 lengths with a 72 SP.  No Nay Spirit is the first foal from 4yo early-bred mare I’m A Kayak, who was sent to No Nay Never to produce the filly.  I’m A Kayak didn’t spend a long time on the track, with only 9 career races and 1 win in a $30,000 MCL, where she was claimed.  That win came in a turf 4.5f sprint, but after the claim she stretched out and put up a couple of decent races at the starter level in dirt miles.  No Nay Never ($100,000), a turf sprinter and the #85 ranked EU sire in 2018, currently has the #1 ranked 2019 sim crop with 29 winners from 73 runners to date.  This slightly outpaces his 2018 crop’s current ranking of #22, though that crop is doing a little better with 7 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners to date.   No Nay Never’s sim foals are heavy sprinters (75% of earnings in sprints), with a slight turf preference (59% on turf), and this is true of the No Nay Never x Invincible Spirit cross as well, as the 3 horses from the past 5 years with those bloodlines have combined for 12 wins (5 in dirt sprints, 7 in turf sprints) and 1 turf sprint stakes placing.  Based on No Nay Spirit’s (DI: 1.15; CD: 0.14) past races and her pedigree, today’s 7f distance doesn’t seem like it should bother her.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Street Mule (Army Mule x Street Slew [Street Cry x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by want2win – 15/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $6,000

Capsule: Street Mule won her debut in a hot MSW in a field of 4, and that win propelled her up to the stakes level for her 2nd race.  In that 12 horse field at 6f-T, Street Mule broke midpack and moved forward late, but couldn’t quite get up for a placing and settled for 4th, 1-1/2 lengths behind the winner (who went on to run 2nd in a G2 next time out) but ahead of today’s rival Damardal (5th).  Street Mule earned a 68 SP in the race.   Street Mule is by Army Mule and is the 11th foal out of 15yo mare Street Slew.  Street Slew wasn’t much on the course, winning only 3 of her 31 career races, with only 1 at the allowance level and all 3 in turf routes.  She has, however, produced a stakes winning turf sprinter and a stakes placed turf router, with most of her foals doing their best in turf routes.  Army Mule ($10,000), a freshman sire and son of Friesan Fire, won the G1 Carter Handicap at 7f on dirt in 2018.  Army Mule’s 2019 sim crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 10 winners from 26 runners.  Those runners have focused on dirt races thus far, though they are 0 for 11 collectively on turf (against 8 for 36 on dirt).  Street Mule (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.81) will come from midpack today with the class drop to prove that the hot win was not just a hot race result.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – A Shin Causeway (A Shin Hikari (JPN) x Of Campbell River [Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by newastin14 – 11/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-1; $43,165

Capsule: One of the veterans of the field, A Shin Causeway struggled a bit in his 3rd place debut, but broke through in his second race, at 6f-T on March 15.  There, she sat midpack early and came on strong late, drawing off to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 72 SP.  She came back on April 27 in a NW2L allowance at 6.5f-T and followed that same running style, but couldn’t quite catch today’s rival Golden Temptress and settled for 2nd with a 73 SP.  A Shin Causeway is the 2nd foal from 9yo mare Of Campbell River, and the first of her foals by A Shin Hikari (JPN).  Of River Campbell was a stakes winning dirt sprinter (at 7.5f) who won 5 of her 19 career races, mostly in dirt races around the 7.5-8.5f range.  Her first foal, Obambulate, has not done much on the track, with just 1 turf sprint win in 11 career starts. A Shin Causeway’s sire, A Shin Hikari (2.5MM Yen), was a multiple G1 winner in turf routes in his career and entered stud in 2017, so his real foals have not yet hit the track.  His 2017 sim crop includes 2 graded stakes winners, both in turf routes, and his 2018 crop is currently ranked #255 with 34 winners from 68 runners, with 1 turf sprinting stakes winner among the crop.  A Shn Hikari’s sim foals have shown a significant turf preference, while also seeming to prefer sprinting on the numbers (though 64% of his foals earnings have come in routes). It’s even more pronounced for the A Shin Hikari x Giant’s Causeway cross, which has produced 6 runners to date, 1 of which is a 3-time graded stakes winner at 10-12f, and 2 others that are graded stakes placed (1 in turf sprints, 1 in long turf).  A Shin Causeway (DI: 1.50; CD: 0.30) will likely sit midpack as she tries to move late.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Big Band Channel (English Channel x Street Band [Street Cry x Dixieland Band]) – Owned by pasorobles – 11/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Big Band Channel comes into this race after breaking her maiden in her second career start, at 6f on the turf, where she stalked the pace early and then moved forward as the pacesetters tired, keeping the closers at bay and winning by ¾ lengths, earning a 71 SP for the victory.  Big Band Channel is a daughter of English Channel, out of 10yo mare Street Band.  English Channel ($30,000), the 2007 Turf Eclipse Award Winner, was the #17 ranked US sire in 2018 but his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #311 overall, with 34 winners from 69 runners.  Only one of those is a stakes winner.  English Channel’s sim progeny are heavy turf routers, in line with his 7.99 AWD, with 75% of earnings on turf and 73% in routes.  Street Band won 7 of her 41 career starts, all on the turf and mainly in the 10-13f range.  Her first 3 foals have shown promise, with 5yo Daiwa Street (Daiwa Major (JPN)) a stakes winner at today’s 7f-T distance.  The English Channel x Street Cry combo has likewise been successful, with 1 stakes winning turf router among the 3 runners of the past 5 years (the other non-Big Band Channel horse is also an allowance winner in turf routes). Big Band Channel (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.80) will try to stay close to the pace or just off of it in her attempt to win 2 in a row.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – All We Hear Is (War Front x Teotihuacan [Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by griffeyjr – 4/1 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: All We Hear Is dominated her debut on April 27, as she went off at 7/1 in the 14 horse 6.5f-T MSW and after breaking midpack, she kicked into high gear late and drew off to win by 1-1/2 lengths.  She earned a 74 SP for the win there, and she’ll stretch out a bit here which should fit right in.  All We Hear Is is the daughter of War Front, and the 8th foal out of 16yo mare Teotihuacan.  Teotihuacan is a stakes-winning dirt miler who won 9 of her 41 career starts, all at the dirt mile distance.  Her foals are equally well-acquainted with the winner’s circle, as she has 1 stakes winning foal (in a dirt sprint) and 3 other stakes placed foals (two in dirt miles, one in a turf mile) among the group, 6 of the 7 of whom have at least 1 allowance win (the only one that doesn’t is the 3yo).  All We Hear Is’s sire, War Front ($250,000), was the #23 ranked US sire of 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #6 overall, with 124 winners from 179 runners, including 12 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners.  His sim foals are largely dirt horses (69% of earnings on dirt), with an even split between sprints and routes, on par with his 7.32 AWD.  The War Front x Giant’s Causeway cross is popular, having been used 36 times in the past 5 years, producing 31 winners, 3 stakes winners/5 stakes placed (mostly in turf routes) and 1 graded stakes winner (coming in a long distance turf race).  All We Hear Is (DI: 2.00; CD: 0.43) will try to run back to that debut effort as she stretches out to 7f here.

Watch Level: High

#6 – Lady Is Roaring (Roaring Lion x Rain Spirit Quest [Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Rainbow Quest]) – Owned by stockswami11 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Lady is Roaring enters this race 1-for-1 in her career, after taking her debut at 6.5f-T on April 8 by ¾ length.  Sitting midpack early, she came flying late and earned a 70 SP for her win (the 2nd place horse would come back to break her maiden next time out).  Lady is Roaring is by Roaring Lion, out of 7yo he-mare Rain Spirit Quest.  Roaring Lion ($40,000), the EU Horse of the Year in 2018, is a son of Kitten’s Joy.  His freshman 2019 sim crop currently ranks #184 thus far, with 34 runners and 9 winners to date.  Although we don’t know much about his stallion career yet, Roaring Lion was a multiple G1 winner at 9-10f on the turf when racing.  Rain Spirit Quest was also an excellent horse on the track, winning 8 of his 30 career races.  5 of those wins came at the stakes level, with 3 G2 wins among them.  All of those wins came in the 8-8.5f turf range, which is where he did his best running.  In addition to those wins, Rain Spirit Quest was graded stakes placed 7 other times, including a 2nd place finish in the 2017 Sand Castle Fee Duty-G1 at 8.5f-T.  Lady Is Roaring (DI: 1.46; CD: 0.38) stretches out here as she looks to take the next step in her career.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – Mafina (Finale x Playboy Bunny [Cape Cross x Daylami (IRE)]) – Owned by tobiman – 36/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $25,200

Capsule: Mafina is one of the most experienced filly in this field, with 3 career races under her belt.  She broke her maiden on a good dirt track at 6f in race #2, but comes into this race off of a big SP jump when she made the turf switch last time out, putting up a 71 SP in a NW2L 6.5f-T allowance at 24/1 where she showed off a deep closing kick.  Mafina is the daughter of Finale, out of 14yo mare Playboy Bunny, a winner of 3 races in her 17 race career.  Playboy Bunny was a turf runner and seemed to show about the same ability in both sprints and routes, but spent most of her career in claimers or *CPU-restricted allowances.  Of her 9 previous foals, only 1 has won a non-hot, non-local allowance, doing so as a turf sprinter, but ultimately none of those foals have shown much on the track.  Mafina’s sire, Finale ($3,000 – FL), a son of Scat Daddy who was a G3-winning turf miler in Canada, was the #129 ranked New Mexico sire in 2018.  His sim crop is small, as the 2018 class only includes 3 runners to date, none of which have won, and currently ranks #3,480 (overall, 6 of his 12 sim foals have won non-hot races).  Finale’s sim foals are too few to really tell their preferences, but 4 of the 6 winners have earned wins in dirt sprints, though none have ever won an allowance race. Mafina (DI: 1.00; CD: -0.07) looks to prove that the turf bump in her last race was legit, and not just a dirt-to-turf bump, as she tries to become the first allowance winner for her sire.

Watch Level: Low

#8 – Forlorn Lover (I Am Invincible x Dainty Miss [Danehill x Mining]) – Owned by roosters02 – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; 33,720

Capsule: Forlorn Lover, a daughter of #2 ranked Australian sire I Am Invincible ($27,500), enters this race off of her maiden score in her debut on April 7.  There, at 5.5f on the turf, she sat 2nd early before moving up late and taking the victory with a 67 SP.  Forlorn Lover is the 7th and final foal from 20yo mare Dainty Miss, a stakes winning (and 4-time stakes placed) turf sprinter who won 10 of her 49 career races.  Unfortunately, Dainty Miss has not been a great sim producer, and only 1 of her 6 previous foals have managed a non-hot, non-local allowance victory.  Forlorn Lover’s siblings have varied in distance and surface preferences.  I Am Invincible’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #24 with 91 winners from 119 runners, including 13(!) stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners; among them is 2018 Sim Eclipse Award Champion 2yo Filly Invincible Irish, and his 2019 crop is currently ranked #17 overall, with G3 winner Sinew leading the way. His sim foals are primarily turf sprinters (70% of earnings on turf, 71% in sprints), in line with I Am Invincible’s on-track career. The I Am Invincible x Danehill cross has produced 5 foals in the past 5 years, 3 of which are stakes placed turf sprinters.  Forlorn Lover (DI: 1.80; CD: 0.43), looks to take a step forward from her stalking position in today’s race.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Livincal (Acclamation (GB) x Livininthefuture [Redoute’s Choice x Kris S.]) – Owned by extras7 – 15/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $30,360

Capsule: Livincal had a rough debut on February 23, trying a 6f-T MSW but tiring to finish 7th.  She came back in a big way on April 10, however, opening up a large lead as the pacesetter in a 6.5f-T MSW and then hanging on late to win by ½ length, earning a 67 SP.  Livincal is by Acclamation, the #17 EU sire of 2018, and is the 3rd foal out of 6yo mare Livininthefuture.  Acclamation ($40,000), a sprint sire with a real life 6.85 AWD, produces the same in the sim, with 70% of earnings on turf and 65% in sprints.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #96 overall, with 59 winners from 89 runners, including 4 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners (including Japanese Oaks-G1 (12f-T) winner Skaftafell).  Livininthefuture was a 3-time allowance winner and won 5 of her 22 career races, all in turf sprints.  Her first foal, 4yo, Sea The Future (Sea The Stars (IRE)), improved on Livininthefuture and is already a 2-time stakes winner at 5.5f on the turf through 10 career races; however, her second foal is winless through 8 career starts.  The Acclamation x Redoute’s Choice cross has produced 13 runners in the past 5 years, 4 of which are stakes placed (1 stakes winner) in turf sprints (1 is also stakes placed in a turf route).  Livincal (DI: 1.40; CD: 0.17) may try to wire this field just like she did in her last race.

Watch Level: Low

#10 – Golden Temptress (Gold Allure (JPN) x Tempestuous Outburst [Congrats x Johannesburg]) – Owned by mfwoodward – 13/1

Race Record: 2:2-0-0; $48,300

Capsule: Golden Temptress is the most accomplished horse in this field, being the only filly with 2 wins on her record already.  After breaking her maiden on February 22 at 6f on the turf, she tried a NW2L allowance at 6.5f-T on April 27 and proved that her debut was no fluke, as she sat just off of the pace and then showed no mercy in pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a career-high 75 SP and defeating today’s rival A Shin Causeway (2nd).  Golden Temptress is the 3rd foal from 8yo mare Tempestuous Outburst and is the daughter of Gold Allure.  Tempestuous Outburst was a stakes winning turf sprinter in her racing days, winning 7 of her 28 career races, all in turf sprints.  Her first two foals, however, have picked up all of their wins in dirt routes, so it will be interesting to see if Golden Temptress follows more closely behind her mother or her half-siblings.  Gold Allure, the #8 Japanese sire in 2018, sadly passed away in 2017 but was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (mainly in the 10f range).  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #629, with 18 winners from 29 runners (no stakes winners).  His sim foals are pretty evenly split in distance and surface based on earnings, though that’s skewed by the 5-time graded stakes-winning turf router Silver Way. By the numbers, Gold Allure’s sim foals tend to favor sprinting (with a very slight edge to the dirt).  Golden Temptress (DI: 2.08; CD: 0.60) will try to sit just off the pace as she tries to start her career with a 3 race winning streak.

Watch Level: High

#11 – Damardal (Shamardal x Bichito Rapido[Dansili (GB) x Distorted Humor]) – Owned by desertdog18 – 5/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $32,360

Capsule: Damardal looked like a world beater in her debut on February 23 at 6f on the turf, as she dueled on the pace and held on to win by ½ length, earning a monster 78 SP (the 2nd place horse from that race came back to run 2nd with a 74 SP in her next maiden attempt, and then finally broke it in race #3).  That effort led to a stakes run at 6f-T on May 5, where Damardal went off as the 3/1 favorite but disappointed, finishing 5th with only a 68 SP and finishing just behind today’s rival Street Mule (4th), though the winner of that stakes came back to run 2nd in a G2 next time out).  Damardal is the only foal from 6yo he-mare Bichito Rapido, who was sent to Shamardal when he was retired.  Bichito Rapido won 6 of his 29 career races, 4 of those at the allowance level, and he did his best running in turf miles (running 5th at both the stakes and G3 levels).  Shamardal, meanwhile, was the 2004 Cartier Champion 2yo Colt (and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner) and was the #5 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His sim foals follow his real world lead in their turf prowess (72% of earnings on turf), though they tend to go slightly longer than their real life counterparts (62% of earnings in routes, vs. a real world 7.92 AWD).  The 2018 crop currently ranks #30 overall, with 97 winners from 151 runners, including 14 stakes winner and 1 G3-winning turf miler.  The Shamardal x Dansili cross has produced 14 horses in the past 5 years, 3 of which have won turf route stakes, and 2 of which have won graded stakes (1 in a turf sprint, 1 in a turf route).  Damardal (DI: 1.40; CD: 0.25) drops back down in class here and stretches out to try and prove that her debut was not a fluke.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Carrying On (Harry Angel (IRE) x In Philadelphia [Lonhro x Kingmambo]) – Owned by plainfield – 11/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $43,545

Capsule: Carrying On made her debut on February 24 at 6f on the turf and sat towards the back early, slowly picking off some of her competitors and settling for 2nd, 2 lengths back of the winner (who went on to repeat at the allowance level next time out) and earning a 68 SP.  Her second race showed that she just needed to get her sea legs under her, as she again sat back early but came flying late in a 6.5f-T MSW, winning by 1-3/4 lengths and earning a 73 SP on April 23.  Carrying On is the daughter of Harry Angel (IRE), out of early-bred 4yo mare In Philadelphia.  In Philadelphia wasn’t much on the track, winning her debut at 6f on the turf but never finding consistency anywhere.  Her fastest race was at 8.5f on the dirt when she ran 2nd in a NW2L.  Freshman sire Harry Angel ($20,000) was the 2017 Cartier Champion Sprinter.  His 2019 sim crop currently ranks #94 overall, with 6 of 26 winners (all but 3 of the races have come on turf thus far).  Carrying On (DI: 0.71; CD: 0.00) will sit midpack or further back here, but the added half furlong should help.

Watch Level: High

#13 – Tysha (Zelzal (FR) x Tyrion Kills Me [Dansili (GB) x Dynaformer]) – Owned by dosstables – 13/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $18,030

Capsule: Tysha got away from the gate slowly in her debut at 6f-T on March 16, but came on late and got up to win by ¾ length, earning a 67 SP in the win (the 2nd place horse jumped up to the allowance level in her next race and picked up a win with a 74 SP).  Unfortunately, Tysha didn’t show the same late move in her 2nd race, a NW2L at 6.5f-T on April 28, and after sitting 6th of 7 early, she couldn’t really advance and had to settle for a 4th place finish with a 64 SP.  Tysha is the second foal from 7yo mare Tyrion Kills Me, a turf router who was twice stakes placed at 9.5-10f-T and won 11 of 33 career races, all but one in turf routes. Her first foal, Duraformer (Duramente (JPN)), is 3 for 5 lifetime thus far in his career, making a massive jump in SP from 2 to 3 when stretching out to turf routes.  Tysha’s second year sire, Zelzal ($8,000), was a G1-winning turf miler in his career.  His first sim crop currently ranks #245 overall with 31 winners from 59 runners.  Included in that crop are 3 stakes winners and 1 graded stakes winner, Lactical, winner of the Triangular Star Stakes-G3 (8.5f-T).   The Zelzal x Dansili cross has produced 3 runners thus far, and all 3 have won races, though none have yet earned an allowance win through 19 combined races.  Tysha (DI: 0.89; CD: 0.00) will look to close from the back of the pack as she looks to mimic her sibling’s jump between races 2 and 3.

Watch Level: Low

That’s the field for this 7f turf allowance.  It’s a tough call, because a lot of these fillies look like they have some talent. But I’m gonna go with Golden Temptress, the only runner here proven at this level.  Following her, I’ll take the class drop of Damardal to correct the big SP drop, followed closely by All We Hear Is.

Other Races to Watch This Weekend:

1)      Florida – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Division 1) (Division 2)

2)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 6f (Fillies)

3)      Paris – FR – Alw NW2L @ 6f-T (Fillies)

4)      Florida – Alw NW2L @ 7f

5)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 7f (Fillies)

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Jun 102019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  It was a relatively solid pace that led to a bit of a duel up front, between Yankee Justine and Dry Eyes.  They were neck and neck for the first half of the race, with Yankee Justine slightly ahead, but Yankee Justine started to wear out slightly and Dry Eyes took the lead at the top of the stretch.  But instead, the solid pace was enough to allow for a closing kick, and that charge came from Ship The Kash ($16.20), who came flying from 9th early to challenge Dry Eyes.  Ship The Kash grabbed the lead and crossed the finish line first, winning by 1 length with a 79 SP.  Dry Eyes held on for 2nd, and it was another 1-1/2 lengths back to Yankee Justine, who was well clear of 4th.

For the throngs of Future Stars Series fans who said “that last 2yo race was great!  I just want to see more of it!” Well…you’re in luck!  Because we’re staying in Kentucky this week, as we, for the 2nd week in a row, check out a 6.5f dirt NW2L Allowance for 2yo fillies.  This race has drawn a field of 9.  The field is:

#1 – Crafty Beauty (Take Charge Indy x Pioneers Tale [Tale of Ekati x Pioneerof the Nile]) – Owned by holdingnyc – 15/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $9,876

Race History: Crafty Beauty said “no thanks” to the maiden level and instead debuted in an allowance at 5f on the dirt on January 30 in Minnesota.  Taking on 12 rivals, Crafty Beauty went off at 17/1 and wasn’t the fastest out of the gate, as she ended up 6th early (though only ½ length back).  But it turns out she was the most mature of the group, and slowly moved up until she finally got to the front, getting up to win by a neck and earning a 67 SP.  She came back 1 month later in a NW2L at 6f and sat 3rd early but tired and finished 5th, earning a 66 SP.  Crafty Beauty will try to get crafty and find her way back to the front today.

Pedigree: Take Charge Indy, the G1-winning son of Hall of Famer Take Charge Lady, currently stands in South Korea and was the #218 ranked Korean sire in 2018.  In the sim, Take Charge Indy’s 2018 crop currently ranks #57 overall with 69 winners from 104 starters, winning at an 18% rate.  Among those are 2 G1 winners, one at 9f on the dirt and one at 7f on the dirt.  In addition, his 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner, Purple Heart Lane, who took a 5.5f dirt stakes back on April 21.  Take Charge Indy’s sim foals largely prefer the dirt (73% of earnings on dirt), but are evenly split between sprints and routes (51% in routes), though he has more sprinting winners than routing winners.  Crafty Beauty is the first foal from 5yo mare Pioneers Tale.  Pioneers Tale won 3 of her 17 career races, but did most of her damage early.  After rattling off 2 straight wins at 5f on dirt to start her career, she tried stakes company and ran 3rd in a 5.5f dirt stakes.  Unfortunately, that was the highlight of her career.  She found sprinting to be her best distance, specifically around 7f, and seemed to be showing promise on turf in the claiming ranks before retiring.  Crafty Beauty is one of 2 sim foals from the past 5 years that are by Take Charge Indy out of a Tale of Ekati mare, but the other has not shown anything on the track in 7 career starts.  The Cairo Prince x Forestry cross is unexpectedly popular, with 6 sim horses sharing that lineage over the past 5 years.  Of those, 4 have found the winner’s circle, all in dirt sprints, but each (including Prince of Sealand) has only 1 victory (a 4 for 66 record in dirt sprints lifetime).  Crafty Beauty’s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.64 suggest she might like slightly longer than today’s distance, but not too much longer.

Expectations: Crafty Beauty came up big as a longshot in her debut race, but didn’t seem to progress much in her second.  She got 3 months off after that run though, so we’ll see if she’s got something extra on the track as she likely tries to stalk the pace.  Being one of the more experienced horses in the field, she’s got a chance, but she’ll likely need to step up a bit to get the job done here.

Watch Level: Low

#2 – Blue Candy Maker (Candy Ride (ARG) x Tis Taz Cat [Bluegrass Cat x Empire Maker]) – Owned by rickybobbylod – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Blue Candy Maker made her debut back on April 14, when she took on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW here in Kentucky.  Off at 8/1, she stalked the pace early, sitting 2 lengths back in 3rd, but came charging late and got first run over a couple of her competitors, managing to grab the lead and then hold on to win by a head, earning a 69 SP.  A decent number of that field has come back to run 70+ SPs, with the 5th and 7th place finishers breaking their maidens next time out.  Blue Candy Maker will look to keep the ball rolling here.

Pedigree: Candy Ride, who stands in Kentucky for $80,000, was the #2 ranked US sire of 2018, largely on the back of 2018 Pegasus World Cup winner Gun Runner.  In the sim, Candy Ride is a solid sire, as his 2018 crop currently ranks #35 overall.  That 3yo crop includes 134 runners to date, from which 78 have won races at a 17% rate.  5 of those winners have pulled off the feat at the stakes level, mostly in dirt routes, and two are G2 winners, including Black Middle Flower Stk-G2 winner OG Candy Front, though two (including 1 G2) stakes winners have done so in 7-7.5f dirt sprints.  Candy Ride’s sim progeny typically prefer the dirt (66% of earnings on dirt) and have shown a slight preference for routes (58% routes), which lines up with his real life average winning distance of 7.07f (about average for a US sire).  Blue Candy Maker is the sole foal from 5yo he-mare TIs Taz Cat.  Tiz Tas Cat won 5 of his 22 career races, including 4 at the allowance level, and managed a 3rd place in a 5 horse stakes at 5.5f on the dirt as a 3yo.  Most of his races did occur in sprints, but he actually found the turf more to his liking, doing his best running at 6-7f on the turf.  Candy Ride has been bred to a Bluegrass Cat mare 3 times in the past 5 years, but neither of those other horses have broken their maidens as of yet, both showing minimal dirt talent.  Blue Candy Maker’s 1.67 dosage index and 0.42 CD are screaming out for more distance than today’s race, so watch out for her once 2yos can start running longer distances later in the year.

Expectations: Blue Candy Maker put together a solid debut effort as she caught a pretty quick pace but had no issues withstanding the heat, either on the front end or coming late.  The pedigree indicates that she shouldn’t have any problem with the distance, though there is a question if she’ll prefer the turf.  Still, look for her to take a step forward here.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – Miss Warrior (Warrior’s Reward x Attip [Tapit x Tale of the Cat]) – Owned by kashman – 11/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Miss Warrior, a PA-bred filly, opened her racing career at 4.5f on the dirt in Kentucky on April 21.  There, she barely got away from the gate, breaking 7th in the field of 8, dropping 3-1/2 lengths back early.  But she came flying late, and just barely got up to take the win by a head, earning a 65 SP in the process.  She’ll stretch out significantly here as she tries to put together the same type of run.

Pedigree: Warrior’s Reward, a multiple graded stakes winner from 7-8.5f on the dirt, currently stands in Pennsylvania for $4,500, but has produced well beyond his modest expectations and was the #38 ranked US sire in 2018 (#1 in Pennsylvania).  His 2018 sim crop isn’t quite as promising, currently ranking #444 overall with 16 winners from 31 runners, winning at a 17% rate.  None of those horses have been successful beyond the allowance level as of yet.  Warrior’s Reward’s sim foals prefer the dirt, with 68% of earnings on the main track, and show a slight preference to sprinting with 57% of earnings in sprints.  The pure numbers, however, show a stronger sprinting preference, with the data possibly skewed by the fact that his 2 graded stakes winners in the past 5 years both did so in dirt routes, and that sprinting preference fits in with his real world 6.87 AWD.  Miss Warrior is the 9th foal from 13yo mare Attip.  Attip struggled in her career, winning just 2 of her 28 career races, both in turf sprints.  However, she spent most of her career on the dirt, struggling in the claiming ranks.  But it was the breeding shed where she finally struck gold…or bronze, with her 2nd foal.  That foal, Kash on Tap, won 9 of her 42 races, all on dirt, including The Victorious Ride-G3 at 6f, and placed in 5 other graded stakes, including running 2nd in the 2013 Bluegrass Oaks-G1 as the 3rd betting choice.  Unfortunately, none of the other foals have achieved that level of success, and only one of the 6 foals since then have even won more than 2 career races (only 2 are still active).  Tapit mares have been sent to Warrior’s Reward 12 times in the past 5 years, and the combo has produced 1 stakes winner out of 10 total winners.  The stakes win (and 6 other stakes placing) all came in turf routes, but most of the foals have actually preferred dirt, with a pretty even split of sprinters and routers.  Miss Warrior’s dosage index of 3.50 and CD of 0.78 put today’s distance at the top of her list.

Expectations: Miss Warrior seems to have closing speed, and should be happy with the added distance and the up front speed in today’s race.  This race sets up very well for her, but her first race was a little slower than some of the top contenders in this race.  She may need to take a big step forward to pull out today’s race, but that speed wasn’t all that surprising, given that it was at 4.5f, and she’s certainly got a chance to impress today.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Twisting Road (Twirling Candy x Tizz The Boss [Tizway x Quality Road]) – Owned by oldmoonfarms39 – 13/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Twisting Road began her career on April 20 in a Hoosier Residency-restricted MSW at 6f on the dirt in Kentucky.  In a field of 13 first time starters, Twisting Road broke 4th early, sitting ever so slightly off the pace, but had no patience for the pacesetters and decided to take over herself in the far turn.  From there, it was a sprint to the finish and she narrowly held off a rival, winning by a head with a 66 SP.  She’ll take on non-residency competition here in Race #2.

Pedigree: Twirling Candy, a G1-winning dirt sprinter and G2-winning router (both on turf and dirt), currently stands for $25,000 in Kentucky and was the #46 ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #253 overall, with 31 winners from 57 runners winning at a 15% rate.  One of those colts just picked up the first stakes win of the crop, at 5.5f on the dirt.  Much like that colt, Twirling Candy’s sim progeny tend to focus on dirt sprints, with 64% of earnings on dirt and 61% in sprints, in line with his real world 6.69 AWD.  Twisting Road is the 2nd foal from 5yo mare Tizz The Boss.  Tizz The Boss only ran 11 times in her career, but ended up in the winner’s circle 4 times.  Only one of those was in an allowance, with the other 2 coming at the claiming ranks.  She saw a massive improvement when dropping to that level, putting in her best races in 7-7.5f dirt claimers, though she never stretched out beyond that on the dirt (nor did she ever try turf sprinting).  Twisting Road’s only sibling to date is an allowance winner in 9 career races thus far, taking a 5f turf sprint NW2L, but hasn’t tried anything over 6f.  There is one other sim foal to share the Twirling Candy x Tizway bloodlines over the past 5 years, from the same owner, and she is a winner of 1 in 6 starts, with her best race thus far coming in her maiden score at 8f.  Twisting Road’s 3.00 DI and 0.75 CD put today’s race right up his alley.

Expectations:  It’s always a bit of a tough move coming out of a residency-restricted race and taking on the wider sim, but Twisting Road will try it here and there’s no reason to think she can’t pull it off.  She dug in gamely to withstand a late charge in her last race, so she’ll need to progress to make sure she can get the extra half furlong here.  But this is another filly with some potential, so watch for her to sit just off the pace early and try to hang on late.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Shanghai Lovins (Shanghai Bobby x God Love Her [Street Sense x Pulpit]) – Owned by debargain – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $34,694

Race History: Shanghai Lovins made her debut in Kentucky on March 17 in a 6f MSW.  There, she dueled for the lead early, quickly put away her competition, and drew off to defeat the field of 11 by 1-3/4 lengths with a 68 SP.  That race looked particularly solid, as the 2nd and 4th place finishers each came back to break their maiden next time out, the 2nd place finisher with an 80 SP.  Unfortunately, Shanghai Lovins stumbled a bit in her 2nd race, a NW2L allowance at 6f back on May 2.  There, she broke 7th early and never really got involved, losing ground on the leaders and finishing 5th with a 67 SP.  She’ll look to revert back to her debut form today.

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby, the Eclipse Award Champion 2yo in 2012, currently stands in Japan and was the #286 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.  In the sim, his 3yo crop currently ranks #380 overall, with 22 winners from 39 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.  His sim runners are mainly dirt sprinters, with 74% of earnings on dirt and 66% in sprints.  His 1 G1-winning sim foal, a now-retired 7yo, achieved that success when he was a 2yo, and while Shanghai Bobby’s ranking might not be that high, 34 of his 40 foals in the past 5 years that have won at least 1 dirt sprint as a 2yo have done so at the allowance level.  Shanghai Lovins is the 2nd foal from 6yo mare God Love Her, a multiple stakes placed mare who loved going long.  She won 4 of her 23 career races, her best of which, include her 2nd and 3rd place stakes finishes, came in the 10-12f dirt range.  Her first foal, She Loves Deeply (Deep Impact (JPN)), has 1 win through 5 career starts, but hasn’t quite shown the same interest in long distance running as her mother.  The Shanghai Bobby x Street Sense connection has produced 2 winners out of 4 runners over the past 5 years.  The best of those has 8 wins in 35 starts, earning most of those wins in dirt routes.  Shanghai Lovins’ dosage index of 4.33 and CD of 0.75 indicate a preference for sprinting, a good sign for this race.

Expectations: Shanghai Lovins set lofty expectations after her strong debut where she blitzed the field.  But a different horse showed up in race number 2, as she didn’t have the gate speed or the finish of her debut.  So the question is…which is the real Shanghai Lovins?  We’ve all seen horses put up strong debuts and never run back to that effort again, and we’ve also seen horses debut strong, throw a clunker, and come right back on top.  We’ll have to see today to get a sense of the future.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Lethal Cry (Curlin x Lethal Electra [Tapit x Street Cry]) – Owned by 22away – 3/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: This regally bred filly made her debut in Kentucky on April 4 in a 6.5f MSW in a field of 12.  Lethal Cry broke very slow and looked almost uninterested early on, dropping as many as 5.5 lengths back.  But she came flying late, gobbling up ground and eventually storming past the leaders, drawing off to win by 1-1/4 as the 2/1 favorite and earning a 71 SP.   She’ll try to make it 2 for 2 at Kentucky today.

Pedigree: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #28 overall, with 103 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.  That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.  Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.  Lethal Cry is the first foal from 4yo (early bred) mare Lethal Electra.  The well-scratch bred mare didn’t end up doing much of anything on the track, so she was retired after only 7 races.  She broke her maiden at 5f on the dirt in her 2nd career race, a sizeable improvement over her first effort at 6.5f, but never finished better than 5th at the allowance level.  With that said, she only ever ran in dirt sprints, so it’s tough to know what her preferred surface or distance would have been.  Curlin has been bred to a Tapit mare 25 times over the past 5 years, with 21 winners among the group.  Only 1 of those has achieved stakes victory, coming in a dirt route (as most of the Curlin x Tapit horses do), though that filly was also 2nd in the 2017 California Oaks-G1 and managed to make the field of the 2017 Bluegrass Oaks, where she finished 15th.  Lethal Cry’s dosage index of 3.80 and CD of 0.79 put today’s race squarely in her wheelhouse.

Expectations: Lethal Cry has quite the pedigree to live up to.  Unfortunately her mother was never able to do it, but Lethal Cry already looks to have some more talent than her dam.  Her strong closing kick in her debut was a nice run that you don’t often see for young 2yos at these short distances, and it suggests that Lethal Cry might even prefer longer than this 6.5f distance.  Unfortunately, that’s as far as 2yos can go right now, but Lethal Cry looks like she might have a solid career ahead of her.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Traffic Ride (Cross Traffic x Ghost Ride LV [Ghostzapper x Candy Ride) – Owned by klh8 – 4/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Traffic Ride put together a very strong debut run back on April 21.  Opening up at today’s 6.5f distance here in Kentucky, Traffic Ride went with the pace early, sitting just ½ a length back, and then proved she was much the best by asserting herself in the far turn.  She pulled away, defeating the 13 horse field by 1-1/2 lengths and earning a very strong 77 SP.  She’ll try to repeat that run here.

Pedigree: Cross Traffic, a G1 winner at 9f, was the #1 ranked freshman US sire of 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $25,000.  Cross Traffic’s 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently ranks #535 overall, with 10 winners from 27 runners winning at a 12% rate, as it has not yet caught up to his real world progeny.  His sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 82% in sprints), with over 75% of his sim winners over the past 5 years having been successful in dirt sprints, and that is in line with his 6.62 real world AWD. Traffic Ride is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Ghost Ride LV, a winner of 3 of her 15 career races.  Ghost Ride LV spent most of her career around the 8f distance, picking up 2 allowance wins in addition to her maiden victory.  She made 2 failed stakes efforts at the 11-11.5f distance (which was too far for her), but may have retired before she was completely done on the track.  Her two previous foals have followed in her footsteps, both also preferring dirt routes in the 8-8.5f range and both having found success at the allowance level (neither have tried stakes company).  Cross Traffic has been bred to a Ghostzapper mare one other time in the sim, but that horse has not shown much ability to date (in fact, Traffic Ride’s debut was a better race than any of that horse’s 14 prior runs).  Traffic Ride’s dosage of 4.60 and CD of 0.79 indicate a sprinting preference for this filly.

Expectations: Traffic Ride put up one of the best races in the field in her debut, and it puts her towards the top of the heap here.  Mixing in her sire’s sprinting preferences, and you’ve got a solid combination for this race.  She’ll likely sit close to the pace again, and hope to stay there at the end.  Traffic Ride is definitely one to keep your eye on.

Watch Level: High

#8 - Road of Heroes (Quality Road x Age of Heroes [Medaglia D’Oro x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by given10 – 2/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $47,770

Race History: With the numbers, it was only a matter of time before a given horse came up in this series, and we get our first today with Road To Heroes (though as the sponsor of this race, it was pretty much a…given… that we’d get one of his horses).  This filly debuted on April 5 at 6.5f on the dirt in Kentucky and ran a ridiculous race, getting locked in a front-running duel with Apathetic Guru.  That rival managed to win the race by ¼ length, but Road To Heroes finished 3 lengths in front of 3rd, earning a 78 SP that was the 4th highest non-winning SP for a 2yo to that point.  Apathetic Guru came back to win the Vermont-sponsored Happy Mothers Day-G2 and is currently the #2-ranked dirt 2yo filly, and the 5th and 6th place finished from that race each came back to break their maiden next time out.  Road To Heroes also proved her debut was no fluke, as she came back at 6.5f in Kentucky on May 5 and blitzed the field, going wire-to-wire to win by 1 length and earning a field-high 80 SP.  She’ll look to do the same today.

Pedigree: Quality Road, a multiple G1-winning horse, currently stands for $150,000 in Kentucky and was the #7 ranked US sire in 2018 (#1 in G1 Wins).  His 2018 sim crop is struggling compared to his other classes, currently ranking #107 with 64 winners from 94 runners (winning at a 15% rate), though his 2yo crop currently ranks #7 overall with 22 winners from 77 runners.  Only one of the 94 3yos is currently a stakes winner, and that horse, Quality Killer, is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf, though he is also stakes placed at 9.5f on the dirt. Quality Road’s progeny strongly prefer dirt (68% earnings on dirt), with a pretty even split in earnings between sprints and routes (though the speed figures and number of winners favor sprints).  His real world AWD of 7.40 suggests a preference for short routes, which lines up with his best sim progeny (he has 4 graded stakes winners in dirt routes over than last 5 years, vs. only 2 in dirt sprints).  Road To Heroes is the 2nd foal from 10yo mare Age of Heroes.  Age of Heroes won 1/3 of her 33 career races.  1 of those 11 wins was in stakes company, taking an 8.5f dirt stakes, and she was stakes-placed at 8-8.5f on both turf and dirt.  Her first foal, 6yo War of Heroes (War Front), won 3 of her 12 career races, spending most of her time in dirt routes.  Quality Road has been bred to a Medaglia D’Oro mare 17 times in the past 5 years, with 2 of those runners being stakes placed (all in dirt routes).  Although a lot of the horses have shown both turf and dirt abilities, most do end up as dirt routers.  Road To Heroes’ DI of 2.38 and CD of 0.59 suggest that she’ll like stretching out even more than she likes the current distance.

Expectations: Road To Heroes has run 2 races better than any other horse in this field, and the only horse that has ever beaten her is the #2 ranked 2yo dirt filly.  In other words, Road To Heroes is your favorite for a reason.  She looks like she’ll try to grab the lead from the get-go here, and from there it’s just a question of whether one of the other horses can keep up.  Road To Heroes looks like the real deal, both here and for the future.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Prince of Sealand (Cairo Prince x Bushy [Forestry x Speightstown]) – Owned by affirmed76 – 14/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $24,130

Race History: Prince of Sealand opened her career at 17/1 in a 5.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on February 9.  In that race, she outsprinted her 11 rivals for the lead and that got locked in a battle on the lead, digging in gamely but not quite holding on, finishing 2nd by ¼ length with a 64 SP.  The winner from that one has a win and a 2nd in 2 allowance tries since that race, as well as a 4th place stakes effort (and most recently was 9th in a stakes).  Prince of Sealand came back 2 months later in another 5.5f MSW, this time in Minnesota, and had no problems dispatching the 4 horse field, easing to a 1-1/4 length victory and earning a 61 SP.  She stretches out an extra furlong here as she looks to take the next step forward.

Pedigree: Cairo Prince, a multiple graded stakes winning miler, currently stands in Kentucky for $25,000 and was the #3 ranked freshman US sire in 2018.  In the sim, Cairo Prince’s 2018 crop currently ranks a career high #49 overall.  The crop contains 106 runners, of which 70 have won, and the reason for the high ranking is his 6 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners, including G1-winning Revitalization, who won the Los Vinegrette Stakes-G1 at 8f on dirt and was 14th in the Bluegrass Oaks.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters (75% of earnings on dirt, 65% in sprints), in line with his real world 6.83 AWD.  Prince of Sealand is the 6th foal from 11yo mare Bushy, winner of 4 races in her 42 race career.  Most of Bushy’s career came In turf sprints, though she was never all that successful.  Her only allowance victory came at 7f on the turf in a $8700 NW1x allowance.  She spent most of her time trying super-sprints to no avail.  Her first five foals all seem to have followed in her turf footsteps, making it a bit of a surprise that Prince of Sealand began on the dirt.  Bushy’s most successful foal is 5yo Caballo Prestado (Perfect Soul), who is stakes placed at 6.5f on the turf, but that 5yo only has 2 wins in 34 starts.  Tu Amor (North Light) is a promising looking 3yo, with 3 wins in 8 career starts, all in turf sprints as well.  Prince of Sealand’s DI of 7.00 and CD of 1.00 suggest that she wants to do nothing but run fast and short.

Expectations: Prince of Sealand has some early gate speed, which should help her be well placed towards the front of the pack in this 6.5f race.  From a dam’s side that focuses on short sprints, one has to wonder if 6.5f is too far for this filly, but the distances of her siblings and dam may have been more about the owner’s selection than the horse’s preferences, so there might not be an issue.  The only other concern here is that the speed figures are well below the top numbers in this field.  But Prince of Sealand had such an easy time last race, there’s definitely a chance for a sizeable bump today.

Watch Level: Medium

That’s the field for this NW2L allowance.  On paper, Road To Heroes is the best horse, and I’m not sure it’s all that close, so I’m a little surprised that she’s 2/1.  But just because she’s the best on paper doesn’t mean she’ll be the best on the track.  Still, I’ll go with: (1) Road To Heroes; (2) Lethal Cry; (3) Blue Candy Maker

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      California – Local Alw NW1x @ 4.5f-T

2)      Wyoming – Alw NW3L @ 6.5f

3)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f

4)      Wyoming – Alw NW3L @ 6.5f

5)      Berkshire-ENG – Alw NW1x @ 5f-T

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May 312019
 

As mentioned in last week’s Midyear Recap, this week the Future Stars Series is making a change…we’re heading to the 2yo ranks.  I’m hoping to update the race points system to better account for the fact that 2yos have very few career starts at this point, but this week we’re still using the old model.  Which means that this week, we’re headed to Kentucky, where a full field of 14 2yo fillies stretch out to 6.5f for a NW2L Allowance on the dirt.  Many of those fillies have only run once in their careers.  The field is:

#1 – Cats N Birds (Bird Song x Alley Cat [High Yield x Gone West]) – Owned by hoppybob – 25/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $35,406

Race History: One of the two veterans of the field, Cats N Birds also comes into this race as the longshot.  She had a poor debut on the turf back on March 24, but shifted over to the dirt and saw a solid improvement when she ran 4th in her second race.  She comes into this race off of her maiden score in a local 5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on May 11, where she led the field of 9 from the break and held on late, winning by ½ length and earning a career high 70 SP.  She takes on non-local company for the first time here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Bird Song, a multiple graded stakes winner at 8-8.5f out of Champion 3yo filly Bird Town, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $5,000.  His 2018 sim crop (current 3yos and his first crop) currently ranks #156 overall, with 37 winners from 72 runners winning at a 15% rate.  His 3yo crop includes 1 dirt sprinting stakes winner, and his 2yo crop includes a horse who broke her maiden in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes race.  Overall, his sim foals have preferred dirt sprints (72% of earnings on dirt, 78% in sprints).  Cats N Birds is the 4th foal from 18yo mare Alley Cat.  Alley Cat raced for quite a while, crossing a finish line 71 times, with 7 wins among them.  All 7 of those came in dirt sprints, where she spent most of her career.  She took a few shots at the stakes level, but was never able to finish better than 5th in her 4 career tries.  Her first 3 foals are spaced out in age, but only her most recent, 3yo Alley D’Wild (D’Wildcat), has really done anything on the track, as he’s found a niche in Louisiana local races, resulting in 4 wins from 13 career races thus far. He seems to be equally adept to turf and dirt, and to this point, he has spent his entire career sprinting.  Cats N Birds dosage is 4.60, with a CD of 0.86, indicating a strong sprinting preference.

Expectations: Cats N Birds broke through in her last race, which is nice to see, and she’ll take on non-local dirt company for the first time here.  She seems to like being out on the front, so expect her to bolt from the gate and try and set the pace here.  There are some questions about whether she overdoes it early, however, as she’s been tiring late in each of her 3 races and this will be her longest race to date.  But it’s possible that having the 3 race foundation under her will help improve her stamina; we’ll see here.

Watch Level: Low

#2 – Blues Explosion (Violence x Kabamezi [First Samurai x Smart Strike]) – Owned by saluki9 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Blues Explosion began her career at 5f on the dirt in Kentucky back on April 1.  On that day, she sat towards the back of a field of 10, but was only 2 lengths off the lead.  From there, she came running late, passing most of the field on her way to a 1 length victory, earning a 69 SP.  Although that race doesn’t look that strong (none of the field has broken their maidens yet), Blues Explosion will try to capitalize and move forward here.

Pedigree: Violence, the #45 overall (and #1 second-crop) US sire in 2018, was a G1 winner at 8.5f in his career and currently stands in Kentucky for $40,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently consists of 89 runners and 42 winners, winning at a 13.5% rate.  Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, including Got Them All, winner of the Wooden Indian-G1 and 17th in the Bluegrass Derby-G1.  Violence’s sim foals have shown a preference for dirt (68% of earnings on dirt), while being fairly evenly split between sprints and routes (52% in sprints, though his best sim foals have been routers), although his real world AWD of 6.63 indicates a higher preference for sprinting. Blues Explosion is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Kabamezi, the winner of 5 races in her 20 race career.  That career was spent primarily on the turf, with her fastest races coming at the 8f distance, though she was capable anywhere from 6-8.5f.  Her best foal to date is 4yo filly Kabasaluki (Warrior’s Reward), who just narrowly missed in an 8f stakes back in December 2018 and had a record of 11:6-5-0 going into her 4yo year (though she’s had a couple of rough starts as a 4yo).  Overall, Kabamezi’s foals have done their best running at 8f on the dirt.  There is one other Violence x First Samurai horse bred in the sim in the past 5 years, and he has been more of a turf runner, putting up some solid allowance runs in turf routes.  Blues Explosion’s dosage index of 2.43 and CD of 0.58 are, much like Violence’s other sim stats, a little conflicting but make it somewhat likely that she would prefer the mile range.

Expectations: Blues Explosion put something solid together in her first start, and it looks like she’ll be happier getting a little more ground.  Her two best siblings do their best running at 8f on the dirt, so she might end up liking distances slightly longer than this, but the stretch out here should at least make her happy.  Expect her to sit midpack or further back here and then try to make a move late.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Redarro (Cupid x She’s A Beast [Giant’s Causeway x Dynaformer]) – Owned by teesaggro0 – 10/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Race History: Redarro’s debut came back on April 26, when she took on a 6f dirt Hot MSW in Kentucky.  Her competition that day consisted of 1 CPU horse and 2 other fillies, so it wasn’t the strongest competition.  Still, Redarro did what you want to see when a horse takes on inferior completion; she made easy work of her opponents.  Sitting over 3 lengths back early, Redarro came flying late, easily passing the pacesetter and drawing off to win by 1-3/4.  She earned only a 61 SP in that win, but she steps up the competition today to prove that she belongs at this level.

Pedigree: Cupid, a graded stakes winner from 8.5f-10f, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $10,000.  His freshman 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #264 overall, with 44 winners from 77 runners to date, winning at a 14% rate.  The crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 scoring in dirt routes and the third in a turf sprint.  The class has shown a preference for dirt races overall (77% of earnings on dirt), though it’s still too early to tell a distance preference until 3yos can get more routes in.  Redarro is the 3rd foal from 7yo mare She’s a Beast.  She’s a Beast, out of a G1-winning mare, won 8 of her 22 career starts, spending most of that career at the 9-10f dirt distance (and showing some ability at even longer distances).  That career included a 2nd place finish in a 9.5f dirt stakes.  Her first two foals, however, have not shown quite as much talent early on.  4yo Knockingatthedoor (Tapit) is only now finding his way, as he has found the 12-16f distances to be more to his liking, whereas She’s A Beast’s 3yo filly has not yet broken her maiden after 7 starts, now running at the claiming level.  The Cupid x Giant’s Causeway cross has been used 5 times in the past 2 years, with 1 of those being more of a dirt router and one being a sprinter, but it’s too early in those careers to really draw any conclusions.  Redarro’s dosage index of 1.93 and CD of 0.41 indicate a preference for slightly longer races.

Expectations: There’s not a whole lot that we can glean from Redarro’s first career race, other than that it appears she prefers to come from behind.  That shouldn’t be a problem here, as she’ll have some speed to run into.  The hot race likely didn’t take much out of her, but it also didn’t give us much of an idea of how much talent, if any, this filly has.  We’ll see today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Dry Eyes (Palace Malice x Godspeed Hellbound [Dynaformer x Forty Niner]) – Owned by sparkit – 12/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $10,956

Race Record: One of the veterans in the field, Dry Eyes has already raced 3 times in her career.  She broke her maiden at first asking on February 2, in a 5.5f turf MSW in a field of 13.  There, she dueled for the lead early and grabbed it as they turned for home, pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 66 SP.  Dry Eyes regressed a little next time out at 5f on the turf, where she raced evenly and finished 5th (though the top 3 from that race have each gone on to win, including the winner of that NW2L event, who scored in a stakes race next time out). She enters this race off of a surface switch, as she tried dirt in a 6f local NW2L and again raced evenly, earning a career-high 67 SP but finishing 8th in the race (though the winner of that race also went on to stakes victory next time out, with a ridiculous 86 SP).  Dry Eyes will try to improve off of that run here.

Pedigree: Palace Malice, winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes, currently stakes for $15,000 in Kentucky but his real progeny have not yet hit the track.  In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #107, with 58 winners from 98 runners winning at a 15% rate (a little below his average of 16.5%).  Among those 58 winners are 2 stakes winners, Palace Stormer, who has been succeeding in turf sprints, and Into Malice, a dirt sprinter. In general, Palace Malice’s sim progeny have preferred dirt (77% of earnings on dirt), with a pretty even mix of sprints and routes.  He has had 1 graded stakes winner to date.    Dry Eyes is the 7th foal from 11yo mare Godspeed Hellbound, a winner of 7 races in her 30 race career.  In addition to those wins, she was a 3-time stakes placed horse at 8-10f on the turf (which is generally where she did her best running).  She hasn’t really passed down that ability to her foals, however, as only 2 of her 6 previous foals have picked up an allowance win.  There also doesn’t seem to be a common thread in terms of race type, as even though most of her foals’ wins have come on turf, some of their fastest races have been on dirt.  Palace Malice has been bred to a Dynaformer mare 6 times in the past 5 years, but only 1 of those 6 has picked up an allowance win (doing so in a long-distance turf race).  The fastest speeds for the combo have been on turf, though dirt races haven’t been bad either.  Dry Eyes’ dosage index of 1.40 and CD of 0.28 suggest that she wants to run much longer than today’s distance.

Expectations: Dry Eyes has an advantage over some in this field simply by having already raced 3 times.  Unfortunately, her last 2 efforts have left something to be desired.  But it turns out the winners from those races have been very strong horses, so she might be able to do something here coming from a few lengths off the pace.

Watch Level: Low

#5 – Ship The Kash (Midshipman x Kash Street [Street Cry x Bernardini]) – Owned by kashbarn – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Ship The Kash began her racing career in Iowa, in a 5f dirt MSW on April 13.  This filly only caught a field of 5 and went off as the even money favorite.  Sure enough, after sitting 4th early, 1-1/2 lengths back, she came on strong late and pulled away to win by 1 length.  More impressive was the 74 SP that she earned for the win.  The horse that Ship The Kash defeated would come back next time out to break her own maiden with a 72 SP.  Ship The Kash stretches out to 6.5f here as she tries to duplicate her last performance.

Pedigree: Midshipman, winner of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was the #66 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $8,500.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #247 overall, with 27 winners from 46 runners, winning at a 17.5% rate.  One of those winners found victory in an ASR residency-restricted stakes at 8f on the dirt.  But in general, Midshipman’s sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 62% in sprints), which is in line with his real world 6.71 AWD.  Ship The Kash is the 2nd foal from 7yo mare Kash Street.  Kash Street was a winner of 5 races out of her 30 career efforts, though she ran 2nd or 3rd in 18 of the 30, only running worse than 4th twice on dirt.  Most of her career was spent in dirt route allowances, with her best coming in the 9-10f range.  She did get close to a graded stakes placing, finishing 4th in her only career stakes effort in the 2017 King Classic-G2, although she was beaten 11 lengths in that race.  Her first foal, Kash Profit (Tapit), has shown some serious promise thus far, with 3 wins from 7 career starts (though he stumbled in his attempt at the California Derby-G1, where he finished a well-beaten 12th).  Midshipman has been bred to a Street Cry mare 7 times in the past 5 years, with 5 of those 7 earning a win thus far.  The best have been dirt sprinters to date.  Ship The Kash’s dosage index of 3.57 and CD of 0.81 put this 6.5f race right in line with what her pedigree suggests she wants.

Expectations: It was a dominant performance out of the gate for Ship The Kash, made even more impressive by the fact that she only took on 4 opponents.  She should sit midpack or further back in this race, and will try to progress late to repeat her last run.  She definitely has potential, but can she sustain it?

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Renown Runner (Anchor Down x Hushwing Stebbing [Elusive Quality x Royal Academy]) – Owned by hoosier12 – 13/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,080

Race History: Renown Runner is one of the few to have tried this distance already.  In her debut back on April 14 at 6.5f on the dirt, she took on a field of 6, and although she was the 4th choice at 9/2, she grabbed the lead early and never looked back, easily winning by 2-1/4 lengths.  She earned a 68 SP in the win.  The 3rd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 76 SP, so expect Renown Runner to potentially show some improvement here.

Pedigree: Anchor Down, a G2-winning dirt miler (who was 2nd to Frosted in the 2016 Met Mile), currently stands for $7,500 and entered stud in Kentucky in 2017, so none of his real life foals have hit the track.  His 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently includes 56 runners, 29 of which have won at a 13.5% rate.  Among those is 1 stakes winner, who picked up that win in a short turf sprint, but in general his sim horses have largely preferred dirt sprints (73% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints). Renown Runner is the 6th foal from 9yo mare Hushwing Stebbing.  Hushwing Stebbing won 2 races in her 29 race career, but neither win was all that impressive.  Most of her races, and her best efforts, came in dirt routes, though she was never really more than a claimer.  Her foals have done slightly better than she ever did; her first foal, LV Excalibur (Hansen) was primarily a local dirt router in South Korea, but did pick up a local residency-restricted stakes win as well as some other local stakes placings, in dirt routes ranging anywhere from 8-16f.  The only other real consistent runner, Hushwing Algo LV (Algorithms), was best in the 8-9f dirt range.  The Anchor Down x Elusive Quality cross has been used 1 other time, but thus far the 3yo gelding has shown no real interest in racing.  Renown Runner’s dosage index is 3.44, with a 0.75 CD, indicating a preference for sprinting.

Expectations: Renown Runner set the pace in her first race, but she’s facing a much larger field here and might have trouble doing that again.  The bloodlines aren’t particularly strong here, with a bargain sire out of a hot allowance-winning mare, but that doesn’t mean Renown Runner can’t outrun her lineage.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Stone of Orbos (Henny Hughes x Priceless Gift [Cherokee Run x Dixie Union]) – Owned by golfteam3 – 12/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Stone of Orbos made her debut on April 19 in a 5f dirt MSW at Iowa.  She broke a step slow in the field of 9, dropping 3 lengths back early, but got into the race late and came flying at the end, just barely getting up to win the photo by a nose.  She earned a 67 SP for her win as the 4/1 3rd choice.  The 4th place runner from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 67 SP.  Stone of Orbos will try to make things a little easier on herself this time as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Henny Hughes, a multiple G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Japan for 3.5MM Yen and was the #24 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop took a big leap over earlier crops, currently ranking #50 overall with 94 runners and 61 winners, winning at a 19% rate.  2 of those runners have achieved stakes victories, one in a short sprint on dirt and one in a sprint on turf.  Much like the real horse, Henny Hughes’ sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints).  Stone of Orbos is the 6th foal (all fillies) from 12yo mare Priceless Gift, who won 9 of her 47 career races.  Nearly all of those came on the dirt, and although she has a fair number of route efforts to her name, most of Priceless Gift’s success came in dirt sprints.  Her best races actually came on the off track.  Her foals have done ok for themselves, with most of them turning out to be dirt sprinters like their mother.  One of her foals, Four Houses (Lion Heart) is a multiple stakes placed filly at 6.5f on the dirt.  Stone of Orbos’s dosage index doesn’t really tell us much, as there are only 2 chef-de-race point involved (he has a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 1.00).

Expectations: Stone of Orbos took a somewhat surprising route to victory in her first race, as she dropped to the back of the pack in a 5f race and still came on to win.  This filly really seems to have a nose for where the finish line is.  Her speed figure may not be as high as some of the others in here, but she’s got an interesting look to her and she should like the added distance today.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – Loose Cash (Blame x A.P. Indy x Unbridled) – Owned by gliffo8 - 5/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Loose Cash debuted at today’s 6.5f dirt distance in Kentucky back on April 11, and did it in style.  Off as the 4/1 4th choice, Loose Cash dueled for the lead early and quickly put away the other challenger, opening up to lead by 1-1/4 and then maintaining that lead through the finish.  Loose Cash earned a strong 73 SP in the victory, though none of her competition from that race has backed her up (no one has finished better than 3rd, or cracked the 70 SP, in their follow-ups).  Loose Cash will look to repeat that performance here.

Pedigree: Blame, the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $30,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #131 overall, with 41 winners from 84 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.52 AWD.  The cream of the 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 5 in dirt sprints, including the graded stakes wins at 7f.  There are 22 sim horses that share the Blame x A.P. Indy bloodlines over the past 5 years.  Of those, 6 have found the winner’s circle in stakes races, primarily in dirt routes (or longer), with 3 achieving graded stakes victories.  However, most of the Blame x A.P. Indy horses are later bloomers – although half broke their maidens as a 2yo, only 2 of the 22 horses managed to win at the allowance level as a 2yo.  Loose Cash’s 2.73 dosage index and 0.64 CD show that much like the others with similar bloodlines, she might prefer longer distances than today’s race.

Expectations: Loose Cash already has the experience at this distance and put up one of the fastest prior races in the field.  Coupled with her solid bloodlines, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.  The one drawback is that she might prefer longer distances that today’s.  Granted, you won’t get that for a 2yo at this point in the year, so Loose Cash really only has more room to grow as the races get longer.

Watch Level: High

#9 – We Gotta Talk (Curlin x A.P. Indy x Private Account) – Owned by 4stardave – 9/2 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: We Gotta Talk got her career off on the right foot first time out.  Taking on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky, We Gotta Talk battled the pace early, but when the other pacesetters couldn’t keep up, she inherited the lead and never looked back.  We Gotta Talk won by a clear length, earning a 71 SP, and none of her competitors really gained any ground on her late.  The 4th place horse from that race took a huge leap next time out to win an MSW, though 2nd and 3rd from the race didn’t see much of a jump next time out and are still looking to break their maidens.  We Gotta Talk will try to make it 2 for 2 here.

Pedigree: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #26 overall, with 102 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.  That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.  Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.  The Curlin x A.P. Indy cross has resulted in 55 runners over the past 5 years, 42 of which (76%) are winners.  7 of those have earned stakes victories (though none have found Graded Stakes success just yet), with the majority of those pulling off the feat in dirt routes.  41% of the Curlin x A.P. Indy 2yos that broke their maiden as a 2yo have gone on to win an allowance race as a 2yo.  We Gotta Talk’s dosage index of 3.29 and CD of 0.73 suggest that she might love sprinting here.

Expectations: We Gotta Talk put together a strong debut, where she went off as the 3/1 favorite and ran like it.  She should be forwardly placed again here, and the bloodlines look like they produce solid 2yos.  We Gotta Talk might be happier once the races stretch out even more, but repeating at 6.5f to start her career won’t hurt.

Watch Level: High

#10 – By Var The Best (Var x Given Away Kash [Any Given Saturday x Dynaformer] – Owned by onamission – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: By Var The Best kicked off her career on April 13 in a 5f dirt MSW in Iowa.  Taking on a field of 4, she sat last early, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back before turning on the jets.  But she turned them on without a problem and crossed the finish line ¾ length ahead, earning a 72 SP as the 6/5 favorite.  She’ll stretch out some here as she tries to pick up win #2.

Pedigree: Var, a G1 winning turf sprinter, was the #3 ranked South African sire in 2018.  His sim foals are slowly starting the catch up to that, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 54 winners from 72 runners, winning at an 18% rate.  2 of those 54 have found stakes victories, one who is a stakes winner at 7.5f on the dirt and G3-placed at 8f, and the other who is a stakes winner at 5-6f on the dirt.  His sim foals have primarily been sprinters (67% of earnings in sprints), with an ever-so-slight preference for dirt (56% on dirt).  By Var The Best is the 5th foal from 10yo mare Given Away Kash.  Given Away Kash won 6 of her 39 career races, but really excelled as a 2yo, winning 2 stakes races in dirt sprints in her 2nd and 3rd career starts.  She also ended up as a stakes placed turf sprinter and turf routers, and actually put up her best speed figures at 8f on the dirt.  Her first foal, 6yo mare Collecting Kash (City Place), inherited a fair amount of her mother’s talent, and was 4-time stakes placed at 8.5-9.5f on both turf and dirt.  The other founds haven’t found quite as much hardware and instead preferring to dominate the claiming and starter ranks.  Var has been bred to an Any Given Saturday mare 3 times in the past 5 years, though neither of the others have done much of note on the track.  Unlike most of Var’s foals, the dosage index of By Var The Best says that his best races will be much longer, with a 1.67 DI and a 0.38 CD.

Expectations: By Var The Best found an easy spot in her first race but capitalized on it, putting up a strong speed figure for this field.  The indications are that she likes to make a late run, so expect her to sit somewhere in the middle or further back.  By Var The Best doesn’t have the bluest of bloodlines, though it’s also not quite the bargain bloodlines of some of the others in this field.  There’s potential here for a breakout 2yo campaign.

Watch Level: Medium

#11 – Rowdy Cura Storm (Curandero x Pomeroy Storm [Pomeroy x Storm Cat]) – Owned by simhorse16 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $16,860

Race History: The oddsmakers might not like Rowdy Cura Storm’s debut, but it was a solid run nonetheless.  Taking on a 5.5f dirt MSW in Ohio on April 17, Rowdy Cura Storm broke very slow and started 11th in a field of 13, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back.  But she came flying late, circling the entire field in time to get up to win by ¼ length at 14/1.  The speed figure was only a 66, but the horse she edged out would come back to break her maiden next time out with a 71 SP.  Rowdy Cura Storm looks to prove that her last race was no fluke as she stretches out a bit here.

Pedigree: Curandero, an unraced son of Storm Cat out of a Forty Niner mare, currently stands in Texas for $1,000 and was the #57 ranked Texas sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop ranks #1,001 overall, but that’s because it only contains 6 runners, 3 of which have won at an insane 26% rate.  That number is buoyed by The Alamo, who has been very successful in the local claiming ranks, mostly on the turf in the 7-8.5f range.  Curandero does have 1 sim stakes winner in 4yo Fairhope, a stakes winner and G3-placed colt at 7.5f on the dirt.   His foals at usually sprints (67% of earnings in sprints), but have a pretty even split on surfaces (52% on dirt, though that might owe to his few best foals being solid dirt horses while most others prefer turf).  Rowdy Cura Storm is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Pomeroy Storm.  Pomeroy Storm debuted as a 3yo and looked pretty good early, winning 3 of her first 4 races and 4 of her first 6 (including 2 local allowances), but she was never again able to find the winner’s circle in her 31 career races.  She proved to be a dirt runner, preferring anywhere from 6-8f.  Her first 3 foals have all been dirt sprinters but none has been all that impressive, with only 1 combined allowance win in 42 total races.  Rowdy Cura Storm’s DI of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right about average distances based on her bloodlines (which are 2×3 inbred to Storm Cat).

Expectations: Rowdy Cura Storm is a bargain bred horse, and thus the oddsmakers may not like her, but her last race was a solid run.  She gets another furlong here, which doesn’t look like it will hurt her, and she showed a closing kick in her first race when coming from the back.  But her speed in her first race was a little behind the best in here, and it looks like she’ll need to take a step forward to really stamp herself as legit here.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Vale Redoute (Schoolyard Dreams x Redoustina [Redoute’s Choice x Crafty Prospector]) – Owned by superfecta – 22/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Vale Redoute pulled off a bit of an upset in her debut.  Going off at 13/1 in a field of 9 in a 5f dirt MSW at Kentucky on April 4, Vale Redoute dropped back early, sitting about 2 lengths back.  She started to move up as they reach the top of the stretch and then came on strong late, just getting up to win by ¾ length.  The win earned her a 64 SP.  Of note, the 2nd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 65 SP.  Vale Redoute will try to extend that late run here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Schoolyard Dreams, a multiple graded stakes placed dirt miler, entered stud in Canada in 2015 and currently stands for $2,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #1,063, with 11 winners from 21 runners to date, winning at a 21.5% rate.  The sim foals have largely been dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 76% in sprints), and although none have achieved stakes victories yet (and only 4 have allowance wins), Flew Too High has been by far the most successful foal thus far, finishing 2nd in The Rebel Yell-G3 at 8.5f on the dirt.  Vale Redoute is the 5th foal from 13yo mare Redoustina, a 3-time stakes winner and G3-placed dirt sprinter.  Redoustina did most of her damage in the 5.5-6.5f range (though she has a stakes win at 7.5f as well).  Her foals, however, seem to be hit-or-miss, with an emphasis on the miss.  The one exception to that is 6yo Creedoustina (Jimmy Creed), who managed to pick up a stakes win at 5.5f to end his 3yo campaign en route to 6 wins from 22 starts thus far.  Vale Redoute’s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right in the middle when it comes to preferred distances.

Expectations: Vale Redoute has a solid backend to her pedigree, though her bargain sire is likely the reason she went off at 13/1 in her debut and is 22/1 today.  But that doesn’t mean that this filly can’t be great.  Her debut race was a solid one as she came from behind to take the victory, and the added distance here doesn’t hurt.  She may need to step it up a notch here in order to win, but it’s not ridiculous to think that she could.

Watch Level: Medium

#13 – Yankee Justine (Justify x Yankee Cinnamon [Giant’s Causeway x Tale of the Cat]) – Owned by Yankeetown – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $39,340

Race History: The sponsor of this race, Yankee Justine is one of the few with more than 1 career race under her belt.  Her debut came back on February 2 in a 4.5f dirt MSW at Kentucky.  In a field of 11, she battled the pace early but couldn’t quite keep up late, finishing 3rd and earning a 64 SP.  But the race did her good, and Yankee Justine would go on to win her 2nd race, a 5.5f MSW on April 6, by 1 length after sitting just off the pace early.  She earned a 69 SP in the win.  The 2nd place horse in her most recent race would run 2nd again next time out at the MSW level.  Yankee Justine stretches out again to 6.5f here.

Pedigree: Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, currently stands in Kentucky for $150,000.  His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 27 winners from 88 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with one colt having picked up a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win to kick off his career (and most recently was 4th in the Vermont BB Juvenile-G2 at 6f on the dirt). Yankee Justine is the first foal from 4yo early-retired mare Yankee Cinnamon.  Yankee Cinnamon was a stakes winner who earned 10 wins in her 20 race career.  Her one stakes win came in career start #2, where she took home a 5f dirt 2yo stakes.  But most of her career was spent at the hot allowance level, with the slight majority of her races and wins coming in turf routes, but her fastest speed figures coming in dirt routes.  Only 2 of the 4 foals by Justify out of a Giant’s Causeway mare have hit the track yet, and Yankee Justine is the only one with a win.  With a dosage index of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38, Yankee Justice might be biding her time for longer races later in the year.

Expectations: Yankee Justine’s first 2 races have seen her sit just off the pacesetters early, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her forwardly placed here.  For a sire pedigree line, she is quite the blue blood, and one would expect her to get better as the distances increase. But I’m not sure the dam was quite as strong as she first looks on paper (though the dam’s line has a G3 winner and a G3-placed horse as the granddam and great-granddam, so there’s some promise in the bloodlines.

Watch Level: High

#14 – Lady Tornado (Toronado x Lady Grinning Soul [Palace Malice x Dansili (GB)]) – Owned by leeleea21 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,680

Race History: Lady Tornado is the only filly in this field to have debuted at the claiming level. She kicked off her career on April 6 in a $20,000 MCL at 5.5f on the dirt in Illinois.  Running against a field of 4, she went off as the co-favorite at even money, and took off for the lead, never looking back.  She set the early pace and then drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths, with a 57 SP.  Of note, the 2nd and 4th place horses in that race came back at the MCL level next time out and finished 3rd and 5th, respectively.  Lady Tornado makes the jump to the allowance level here to see if she can compete with the big girls.

Pedigree: Toronado, a multiple G1 winning turf miler in the UK, was the #162 ranked French sire in 2018 (it may have been his first crop) and currently stands in France for $12,000.  Toronado’s 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #855 overall, with 20 winners from 37 runners winning at a 9% rate.  None of those horses has had stakes success yet, though one was G2-placed as a 2yo in a turf mile.  His sim foals significantly favor the turf (78% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even sprint/route split (53% in routes).  Lady Tornado is the second foal from 5yo mare Lady Grinning Soul, who won 2 of 26 races in her career.  Her maiden win was at 8f on the turf in a hot race, and her only other win was in a $20K claimer at 8.5f. Most of her races came on the turf in the 7-8.5f range, though she did her best running around the mile.  Her first foal, 3yo Brody’s Grinning (Brody’s Cause), seemed to take a little while to get going but now has a 6:1-1-4 record, starting to excel as a deep closer as he stretches out.  Lady Tornado’s dosage index of 1.22 and CD of 0.20 indicate a preference for longer races.

Expectations: Lady Tornado wasn’t the most highly touted 2yo to debut and doesn’t have the greatest bloodlines, but she did what she needed to do in her debut effort.  She went unclaimed so her owner has decided to see if she has the ability to compete at a higher level.  The speed figure from her debut is well below the others in this field, but the race setup didn’t require her to work any harder, so we expect to see some improvement here.  The only question is whether it will be enough improvement.

Watch Level: Low

That’s your field of 14 for this first 2yo Future Stars Series race.  Normally, I’d give my predictions, but I have no clue how to handicap a 2yo race where 11 of the 14 horses have only run once.  So my completely arbitrary predictions are: (1) Loose Cash; (2) Renown Runner; (3) We Gotta Talk.  Good luck!

Other 2yo Races To Watch This Weekend:

1)      Berkshire-ENG – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f

2)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f

3)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f-T

4)      Texas – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f (Fillies)

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Jul 222017
 

High-class Fillies Go Head-to-Head for the Wet Bikini Stakes

                Each year, the Wet Bikini hosts some of the most promising young female turf gallopers, and it does not differ on this occasion. Greyville will play host to this edition of the grade one, and with clear skies promised for the race and a very competitive field, it won’t be one to miss. Let’s meet our horses.

Drawing the rail is KINGSHA, bred by and racing for the 3away stables. The two-year-old bay is by KINGMAN and out of one-time winner SHA BANG BANG, a mare that has now produced three winners from four starters, though no stakes winners. The English filly has won twice on thee starts, including a maiden win at five-and-a-half furlongs and a conditioned allowance at six-and-a-half. Her figure capped at 73 in said allowance, a somewhat competitive figure for this field, though a full nine points behind some of the favourites. This seems like too large a deficit to overcome to warrant a wager.

Second inside is IN BRUGES, one of the five undefeated runners in this field of fourteen. Owned by Babers Racing Stables, the filly by FED BIZ and out of race winner EXTRA TRUST broke her maiden first out in Cali, putting up a tepid 63 figure in her debut. She headed east for her second start in Kentucky, winning that NW2 state-bred allowance by almost two lengths. Most recently, on May twenty-seventh, the filly was in Texas for her first stakes event, and she took that one out too- posting a career best 78 speed figure and winning by one-and-a-half lengths. This one’s definitely in the running, but I like a few better here. I’m going to list her as my longshot play at 12-1, as I think she poses a real threat to the favourites.

In gate three is SADIE JANE for Bonk Stables, another member of the undefeated band- currently two-for-two. Also bred by Bonk, she’s by DECLARATION OF WAR and out of stakes winner, graded placed mare PROSPECTOR S., a producer of seven winners (of seven starters), including two stakes winners and two graded winners. The prestigious breeding came through for Bonk Stables, as the filly broke her maiden first out and was swiftly moved into stakes company, winning a listed stakes event in Italy over good turf with a strong 78 speed index. She’s the luke-warm 5-1 favourite, but I feel there are others that are just a bit better. I’ll take her out of the top three but include her in exotic plays.

From post four is KLASSIC SNITZEL, a maiden against winners. Bred and owned by different substables of top trainer Lightng99. This was the first offspring of maiden DARK ACCLAMATION, an unsuccessful racing mare, but bred with SNITZEL has produced a promising racing prospect. The rookie has never faced other non-winners: starting out against one-time victors in the NW2 class, the filly was beaten by just a fraction of a length and produced a relatively slow 63 figure. Unfazed, Lightng sent his filly to Norway for a listed stakes race, where she finished third behind PUSSY HAT, who will reappear in this event, and upping her figure to a 66. Again optimistic about his filly’s talents, Lighng gave her a G2 assignment for her next start on June 11. In another gritty effort, the Aussie bred made a move on the turn to hit second at one point, and toughed it out down the stretch to finish fifth by less than two lengths. Despite some impressive starts, she’s still yet to cross the line first, and is stretching out a furlong more than most of the field. I can’t recommend her for my tcket.

The fifth starter of the field is KADISSYA FLOWER, a two-time winner on five attempts. Bred and raced by NYCowboy Racing, it’s the first foal from non-winner WAVERING MOM (a mare who threw her best figure on dirt) and sired by DANSILI. Starting out two-for-two (though having the field’s third-worst debut figure), her streak was broken in Norway, mounting no charge and taking the last prize-paying position in fifth. Two back, on the same oval in use today, a better charge was made, and despite being half-of-a-length closer than her third run, she came home for seventh, still posting a career-best speed number. On June twenty-second, NYCowboy dropped her down to an easier field of non-winners of three allowance horses. The animal lost a tight one- fighting tooth and nail down the stretch to lose by a just quarter of a length. It’s an even tougher ask this time, but she does have the advantage of running the furthest of any of today’s field (seven furlongs last time). I still can’t see her taking down some of the top entrants.

Turf convert BABY MADDOX breaks from post six, a one-time winner from six races. By NONNO’S BOY, this is the thirteenth starter and eleventh winner out of grade three winner STING YEA. It’s a Graywolf trainee who switched from dirt to the grass after a disappointing grade three effort in her third start. Despite a slight improvement, the youngster had to drop to a $60,000 maiden claimer to break her maiden, and consistently runs uncompetitive figures. You can safely leave this one off your ticket.

DENMAN THE VOICE starts from the center and is another member of the unbeaten club, winning both lifetime starts. The Aussie filly owned and bred by Selurnivek Stables Inc. is by top Australian sire DENMAN and out of stakes placed mare COMMAND OF DEATH, who now has two stakes winners to her name. Raced in the US, the filly eked out a quarter length win in her first contest in NY, and was swiftly stepped up to stakes company. “Can do” said the bay rookie, as she passed SUSPICIOUS SLOTH late for a half-length victory and a sharp 79 speed rating, all while stretching out by two furlongs.  This is a talented filly, and based on her last performance coupled with prospects for improvement, as well as her early-pace capabilities in a field where it’s scarce, I’ll add her on as my fourth selection.

Another strong challenger is MAKERS DREAMS, a G3 winner who ran the field’s best figure in her last. The hidden entry from the Lightng99 Stable, it’s a filly by French sire VADAMOS and out of single race winner EXCEED THE NEED, who now has two winners from two starters. Moving late for a two length win in her debut, the filly was moved up to a stakes even forty days later. Fighting it out down the stretch, the filly got the better of a fellow closer, taking a quarter length win. In her strongest showing to date, the filly put up a superb 82 figure, just out-bobbing SHOCKED THERAPY, another competitor in this field. Each race the filly has shown guts and will, therefore I will be giving her the show nod.

Yet another stakes winner, CROOKEDANDCORRUPT will break from the nine-hole in today’s contest. A homebred owned by the Adschus03 operation, it’s a two-year-old by SEEK AGAIN and out of three-time winner POLITICSANDPOLICY, a six-year-old producing two winners to date. Impressively never racing against maidens, Adschus03 Stable confidently placed his horse in an open allowance, and the horse responded, taking home the top share of a $67,500 purse. Shipped to Wyoming, the filly showed even more talent, running home to a stakes win and a 69 speed figure and narrowly holding off the late-closing IN HAWK. Her last start was a bit less successful, finishing an unimpressive fifth, but improving to a 76 figure. Despite some good showings, others are preferred.

HISTORIC EAGLE competed in a G2 last out and steps up again for owner/breeder Nextbonus, hoping to be able to get there first this time. By top German sire ADLERFLUG and out of TAPIT mare HISTORIC FALCON, who never won a race and whose first progeny is this one. Despite a somewhat bargain sire and unproven mare, the filly has shown early signs of talent. She won her debut in dramatic fashion, with a 70 speed rating and a half length win. Last out at five furlongs was a bit tougher, as she sat a length further back than her race prior, and was pipped by a neck courtesy of rival PUSSY HAT. While the filly has given two strong performances, I like others better for my top three. This certainly is a competitive race, and one to spread for exotics players.

TOXIC LIGHTNING is the bid by Derbyfever sophomore DesertDog, who is quickly becoming a top-level trainer and hopes to pocket a G1 win here. A European-bred, this is a filly by British sire MAKFI and out of French mare TOXIC NONSENSE, a four-time winner and a producer of grade three winner PAYTON RED. Thrown into conditioned allowance company, TOXIC LIGHTING did not impress in her first start, running a respectable third over five furlongs, but put up a paltry 58 rating. In her second race, she definitely stepped it up, coming from just one length off the pace and winning by almost two lengths in a maiden event. DD showed no reluctance stepping her up, though the filly could not match other stakes fillies, falling short by seven lengths in her third lifetime entry. Making up for it, the French filly grabbed her allowance badge in a one length win over six furlongs, scoring a 73 facing only three rivals. It’s going to be a big task for the filly on race day, and she’ll be left off my tickets.

PUSSY HAT is the final undefeated starter, never worse than first to cross the line in three starts. Sired by OASIS DREAM and out of GALILEO mare GIRL IN QUESTION, this was one bred for success. With high expectations, Eminc Stables started out their new filly in an Irish listed stakes event which she handled with ease. The filly beat seven other maidens with a length separating her from second and gave a 69 speed figure. Second out was even better, throwing a 72 figure as she takes another stakes event, beating three winners this time out of ten starters, including two who she’ll revisit in this race. On June eleventh, we saw her best effort, beating several winners and taking a purse of $375,000 and running a 74. While she’s the only grade two winner, I’m going to take SHOCKED THERAPY for the winner’s circle picture and select PUSSY HAT for place.

Second from outside is SHOCKED THERAPY, a graded placed, two-for-three filly for the great Lenny connections. Another DANSILI entrant, she’s out of dirt-sprinting mare SHOCKSEEKER, a mare who has foaled five winners including a G1 winner and a stakes winner. The filly won her first two- a maiden event and a NW2 allowance, the standard for starting up a horse. A step up to the graded classes was on the cards, and SHOCKED THERAPY ran with ability, stalking second, and taking the lead briefly before engaging MAKERS DREAMS in a head-bob down the stretch only to lose by a head. Lenny’s got himself another talented filly here (doesn’t he have enough?) who I predict will take home the trophy barring any pace collapses. It’s the 5-1 co-favourite and my top pick.

Starting furthest outside is MARISETTE, going today for the Stable Champion is a one-time winner on three tries by SEPOY and out of SEATTLE SLEW mare ENOUGH TILL STORM. The latter won three races of ten lifetime and produced 2 stakes winners, 2 graded winners and several other allowance winners. Her first start on dirt was unsuccessful, prompting the Champion Stable to call the audible to the turf, and the filly responded well, taking a wire-to-wire win in a Berkshire local-bred maiden event. For her most recent, she was shipped in to Texas for a listed stakes race on May 27, but was caught this time for the lead and came home in second with a 75 speed figure. Her effort was not unsatisfactory, but isn’t enough to add her to the top four.

 

Selections

Win: SHOCKED THERAPY   13  

Place: PUSSY HAT    12   

Show: MAKERS DREAMS    8   

Fourth: DENMAN THE VOICE    7   

Longshot play: IN BRUGES |   2   |

 

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