Jul 222017
 

High-class Fillies Go Head-to-Head for the Wet Bikini Stakes

                Each year, the Wet Bikini hosts some of the most promising young female turf gallopers, and it does not differ on this occasion. Greyville will play host to this edition of the grade one, and with clear skies promised for the race and a very competitive field, it won’t be one to miss. Let’s meet our horses.

Drawing the rail is KINGSHA, bred by and racing for the 3away stables. The two-year-old bay is by KINGMAN and out of one-time winner SHA BANG BANG, a mare that has now produced three winners from four starters, though no stakes winners. The English filly has won twice on thee starts, including a maiden win at five-and-a-half furlongs and a conditioned allowance at six-and-a-half. Her figure capped at 73 in said allowance, a somewhat competitive figure for this field, though a full nine points behind some of the favourites. This seems like too large a deficit to overcome to warrant a wager.

Second inside is IN BRUGES, one of the five undefeated runners in this field of fourteen. Owned by Babers Racing Stables, the filly by FED BIZ and out of race winner EXTRA TRUST broke her maiden first out in Cali, putting up a tepid 63 figure in her debut. She headed east for her second start in Kentucky, winning that NW2 state-bred allowance by almost two lengths. Most recently, on May twenty-seventh, the filly was in Texas for her first stakes event, and she took that one out too- posting a career best 78 speed figure and winning by one-and-a-half lengths. This one’s definitely in the running, but I like a few better here. I’m going to list her as my longshot play at 12-1, as I think she poses a real threat to the favourites.

In gate three is SADIE JANE for Bonk Stables, another member of the undefeated band- currently two-for-two. Also bred by Bonk, she’s by DECLARATION OF WAR and out of stakes winner, graded placed mare PROSPECTOR S., a producer of seven winners (of seven starters), including two stakes winners and two graded winners. The prestigious breeding came through for Bonk Stables, as the filly broke her maiden first out and was swiftly moved into stakes company, winning a listed stakes event in Italy over good turf with a strong 78 speed index. She’s the luke-warm 5-1 favourite, but I feel there are others that are just a bit better. I’ll take her out of the top three but include her in exotic plays.

From post four is KLASSIC SNITZEL, a maiden against winners. Bred and owned by different substables of top trainer Lightng99. This was the first offspring of maiden DARK ACCLAMATION, an unsuccessful racing mare, but bred with SNITZEL has produced a promising racing prospect. The rookie has never faced other non-winners: starting out against one-time victors in the NW2 class, the filly was beaten by just a fraction of a length and produced a relatively slow 63 figure. Unfazed, Lightng sent his filly to Norway for a listed stakes race, where she finished third behind PUSSY HAT, who will reappear in this event, and upping her figure to a 66. Again optimistic about his filly’s talents, Lighng gave her a G2 assignment for her next start on June 11. In another gritty effort, the Aussie bred made a move on the turn to hit second at one point, and toughed it out down the stretch to finish fifth by less than two lengths. Despite some impressive starts, she’s still yet to cross the line first, and is stretching out a furlong more than most of the field. I can’t recommend her for my tcket.

The fifth starter of the field is KADISSYA FLOWER, a two-time winner on five attempts. Bred and raced by NYCowboy Racing, it’s the first foal from non-winner WAVERING MOM (a mare who threw her best figure on dirt) and sired by DANSILI. Starting out two-for-two (though having the field’s third-worst debut figure), her streak was broken in Norway, mounting no charge and taking the last prize-paying position in fifth. Two back, on the same oval in use today, a better charge was made, and despite being half-of-a-length closer than her third run, she came home for seventh, still posting a career-best speed number. On June twenty-second, NYCowboy dropped her down to an easier field of non-winners of three allowance horses. The animal lost a tight one- fighting tooth and nail down the stretch to lose by a just quarter of a length. It’s an even tougher ask this time, but she does have the advantage of running the furthest of any of today’s field (seven furlongs last time). I still can’t see her taking down some of the top entrants.

Turf convert BABY MADDOX breaks from post six, a one-time winner from six races. By NONNO’S BOY, this is the thirteenth starter and eleventh winner out of grade three winner STING YEA. It’s a Graywolf trainee who switched from dirt to the grass after a disappointing grade three effort in her third start. Despite a slight improvement, the youngster had to drop to a $60,000 maiden claimer to break her maiden, and consistently runs uncompetitive figures. You can safely leave this one off your ticket.

DENMAN THE VOICE starts from the center and is another member of the unbeaten club, winning both lifetime starts. The Aussie filly owned and bred by Selurnivek Stables Inc. is by top Australian sire DENMAN and out of stakes placed mare COMMAND OF DEATH, who now has two stakes winners to her name. Raced in the US, the filly eked out a quarter length win in her first contest in NY, and was swiftly stepped up to stakes company. “Can do” said the bay rookie, as she passed SUSPICIOUS SLOTH late for a half-length victory and a sharp 79 speed rating, all while stretching out by two furlongs.  This is a talented filly, and based on her last performance coupled with prospects for improvement, as well as her early-pace capabilities in a field where it’s scarce, I’ll add her on as my fourth selection.

Another strong challenger is MAKERS DREAMS, a G3 winner who ran the field’s best figure in her last. The hidden entry from the Lightng99 Stable, it’s a filly by French sire VADAMOS and out of single race winner EXCEED THE NEED, who now has two winners from two starters. Moving late for a two length win in her debut, the filly was moved up to a stakes even forty days later. Fighting it out down the stretch, the filly got the better of a fellow closer, taking a quarter length win. In her strongest showing to date, the filly put up a superb 82 figure, just out-bobbing SHOCKED THERAPY, another competitor in this field. Each race the filly has shown guts and will, therefore I will be giving her the show nod.

Yet another stakes winner, CROOKEDANDCORRUPT will break from the nine-hole in today’s contest. A homebred owned by the Adschus03 operation, it’s a two-year-old by SEEK AGAIN and out of three-time winner POLITICSANDPOLICY, a six-year-old producing two winners to date. Impressively never racing against maidens, Adschus03 Stable confidently placed his horse in an open allowance, and the horse responded, taking home the top share of a $67,500 purse. Shipped to Wyoming, the filly showed even more talent, running home to a stakes win and a 69 speed figure and narrowly holding off the late-closing IN HAWK. Her last start was a bit less successful, finishing an unimpressive fifth, but improving to a 76 figure. Despite some good showings, others are preferred.

HISTORIC EAGLE competed in a G2 last out and steps up again for owner/breeder Nextbonus, hoping to be able to get there first this time. By top German sire ADLERFLUG and out of TAPIT mare HISTORIC FALCON, who never won a race and whose first progeny is this one. Despite a somewhat bargain sire and unproven mare, the filly has shown early signs of talent. She won her debut in dramatic fashion, with a 70 speed rating and a half length win. Last out at five furlongs was a bit tougher, as she sat a length further back than her race prior, and was pipped by a neck courtesy of rival PUSSY HAT. While the filly has given two strong performances, I like others better for my top three. This certainly is a competitive race, and one to spread for exotics players.

TOXIC LIGHTNING is the bid by Derbyfever sophomore DesertDog, who is quickly becoming a top-level trainer and hopes to pocket a G1 win here. A European-bred, this is a filly by British sire MAKFI and out of French mare TOXIC NONSENSE, a four-time winner and a producer of grade three winner PAYTON RED. Thrown into conditioned allowance company, TOXIC LIGHTING did not impress in her first start, running a respectable third over five furlongs, but put up a paltry 58 rating. In her second race, she definitely stepped it up, coming from just one length off the pace and winning by almost two lengths in a maiden event. DD showed no reluctance stepping her up, though the filly could not match other stakes fillies, falling short by seven lengths in her third lifetime entry. Making up for it, the French filly grabbed her allowance badge in a one length win over six furlongs, scoring a 73 facing only three rivals. It’s going to be a big task for the filly on race day, and she’ll be left off my tickets.

PUSSY HAT is the final undefeated starter, never worse than first to cross the line in three starts. Sired by OASIS DREAM and out of GALILEO mare GIRL IN QUESTION, this was one bred for success. With high expectations, Eminc Stables started out their new filly in an Irish listed stakes event which she handled with ease. The filly beat seven other maidens with a length separating her from second and gave a 69 speed figure. Second out was even better, throwing a 72 figure as she takes another stakes event, beating three winners this time out of ten starters, including two who she’ll revisit in this race. On June eleventh, we saw her best effort, beating several winners and taking a purse of $375,000 and running a 74. While she’s the only grade two winner, I’m going to take SHOCKED THERAPY for the winner’s circle picture and select PUSSY HAT for place.

Second from outside is SHOCKED THERAPY, a graded placed, two-for-three filly for the great Lenny connections. Another DANSILI entrant, she’s out of dirt-sprinting mare SHOCKSEEKER, a mare who has foaled five winners including a G1 winner and a stakes winner. The filly won her first two- a maiden event and a NW2 allowance, the standard for starting up a horse. A step up to the graded classes was on the cards, and SHOCKED THERAPY ran with ability, stalking second, and taking the lead briefly before engaging MAKERS DREAMS in a head-bob down the stretch only to lose by a head. Lenny’s got himself another talented filly here (doesn’t he have enough?) who I predict will take home the trophy barring any pace collapses. It’s the 5-1 co-favourite and my top pick.

Starting furthest outside is MARISETTE, going today for the Stable Champion is a one-time winner on three tries by SEPOY and out of SEATTLE SLEW mare ENOUGH TILL STORM. The latter won three races of ten lifetime and produced 2 stakes winners, 2 graded winners and several other allowance winners. Her first start on dirt was unsuccessful, prompting the Champion Stable to call the audible to the turf, and the filly responded well, taking a wire-to-wire win in a Berkshire local-bred maiden event. For her most recent, she was shipped in to Texas for a listed stakes race on May 27, but was caught this time for the lead and came home in second with a 75 speed figure. Her effort was not unsatisfactory, but isn’t enough to add her to the top four.

 

Selections

Win: SHOCKED THERAPY   13  

Place: PUSSY HAT    12   

Show: MAKERS DREAMS    8   

Fourth: DENMAN THE VOICE    7   

Longshot play: IN BRUGES |   2   |

 

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Aug 032016
 

It’s Equinics day all, the time for each residency to send their cream of the crop postward in the race to be called the kings of the Sim. I’m Blackace and I’ll be taking a look at the 19 Prescott Hotshots, the race in commemoration of the 19 firefighters who lost their lives in the Darnell Hill Fire in 2013. It’s hosted by my own residency (the NWRC), and it’ll be a mile over the turf for four year olds and upwards, contesting for $1,000,000, and that coveted gold medal. Let’s take a look at our Olympian Equines.

The 19 Firefighters of Prescott who perished in the Yarnell, AZ Wildfire.

The 19 Firefighters of Prescott who perished in the Yarnell, AZ Wildfire.

    1     Parc D’Oro is the EWC (East-West Connection) bid, running from the Tyedye barn, and coming off a miserable run in the Eclipsed Stakes G1 after stretching out to a mile and a quarter. The four year old colt is by Medaglia D’Oro based on the Arch stallion Abiding, and has won four races on nineteen lifetime contests to earn a total of $1.12 Million. His only stakes victory was in the Run Wahbit Run Turf Mile, but placed in three graded stakes in his past four. This colt looked really nice up to his last run, where he seemed to just be a non-factor. He could bounce back here but I’m going to leave him off the podium at 17-1.

[  2  ] Dynabawi Bed runs here for the Minnesota Testbarn and owner Cothill, and has not won a race since late 2015, but has finished on the board in two stakes races on seven total races since then. This is a four year old colt by Dubawi out of stakes-winning mare Sweeper ER who was by Sadler’s Wells, and this colt has crossed the line first five times on twenty-four appearances to earn a total of $405k. His major wins are the G3 Fall Stakes and the Redoutabeel Turf Route Stakes. This colt really needs to get off the schneid, and I doubt he can do it in a field this good. He’s 16-1.

    3     Atacenango is one of two local champions in this field, and represents the ERC (Elite Racing Club) with owner Tees, as well as the state he’s Local Champion of, Kentucky. He’s a four year old by Animal Kingdom out of stakes-winning Danehill Dancer mare Slow Dancin’, and he’s amassed $311k on six wins from fifteen starts. His only major win is the Kentucky Local Championships. This colt might be able to get the gold but he’ll really have to step up and beat some great horses, so I’ll leave him off my ticket at 12-1.

        Durans Hope runs for stable Pekays and QRC (Queensland Racecourse), and looks to take home his first stakes trophy here in the form of a gold medal. He’s a four year old colt by Darci Brahma and the DS being Nureyev; he’s earned $338k on ten wins from sixteen lifetime starts, with no stakes wins, though he has finished on the board in two of those types. The colt can win all the allowances he wants, but will probably struggle here, and I’ll predict he finishes off the board at 32-1.

    5     Timmins goes for Comedy Central under Shagfarms and is a very classy colt, seeing as he’s not dropped out of stakes classes since late 2014, but raced in eleven dirt races in a row before switching back to the grass six back. He’s a five year old by Deep Impact with the DS Mr. Prospector, and has earned $622k with seven wins on twenty-seven lifetime starts. Major wins include just the Heaven Stakes G3 (on dirt) and the G3 Strange Brew Turf Handicap, but he’s looked very classy racing in a total of ten graded stakes races. This is a colt that could be really dangerous and I advise using him on all multi-race wagers, but I like three others better, and will leave him off the podium at 10-1.

    6     Muy Delicioso runs for Blazing Saddles and MTK Racing, and is the second local champion in the event, this one for Australia. He’s by Encosta de Lago out of G3-winner Muy Duro, and the four year old has won five races from sixteen goes to earn $331k. The four year old is riding a two-race win streak winning the Local Championships two back and the Hess Mile G3 last out, but I prefer a few others here. He’s 10-1.

    7     Queen Named Barb represents Pastures of Green and is a sharp G1 winner coming off a three-quarter-length third place finish in the Queen Sam G1. He’s a four year old by Lemon Drop Kid based on Pivotal Moment, owned by JakeMatt and is six for sixteen lifetime, earning a total of $2.8 Million lifetime with wins including The International G2, the Penn Mile G1, the Stepson G2, and the King Kong Mile G1 four starts back.The colt is an amazing athlete, but I’m going to go elsewhere for the winner, and put this one in for place as the 9-1 co-second choice.

    8     Pivotal Action is the ASR (All-Stars Racing) entry, he won an allowance hot race tightener, and was second by a neck two starts back in the G1 Queen Sam. He’s a five-year-old scratch-bred horse by Pivotal and the damsire Lyphard, winning nine of twenty-two lifetime starts, and earning a total of $1.63 million. He’s won the Calderazzo Turf Sprint, the Arcade Handicap G2, the Cobbler Mile G1 (those three consecutively) and the Canada Mile G1. The stallion has been looking pretty sharp as of late, finishing within at least two and a half lengths of the leader in his past four, and winning his last under wraps. However I think there are several better here and he’ll be left off the podium here for Tenpoint at 16-1.

   9    Blame Tariat is the MIDAS horse, and has been a pretty classy colt since his three year old season, being a graded stakes runner since late 2014, and winning his first graded stakes event in late 2015. He’s a five year old by Blame out of Unbridled mare Just Squire, and is a seven time winner on twenty-four lifetime tries, earning 813k for Davarto. Big wins include the Chief Cook G3, the Mile Championship G2, and the Bad Things Mile G2. He’s looking like a contender for some hardware, missing a G1 win in the Queen Sam last time by just two lengths. However I think others look sharper and for that reason I’ll leave him off the ticket.

   10    Chrysanthemum City goes for the Canadian group ‘The Eh Team’ and Kanada Stables, and has spent the last two races on home turf, but will have to head into the heat for this Equinics. The eight time winner on twenty-six runs is a five year old by Big Brown out of the Touch Gold mare Petals of Gold. He’s earned $576k and won such races as the Song About Pye Turf Route and the Oceanside G3, but has placed in several bigger graded stakes and has won several residency stakes races. The horse has been racing in several stakes races recently such as the Aught Conn Cup G3 and the Edward’s Kingdom G2, and this will be his fourth start of 2016 after being laid off until April. It could be tough for the horse under these conditions and I’ll leave him off my ticket at 19-1.

   11    Straight Tequilla will need to take a big step up after not finishing better than four lengths back in his past four if he’s going to steal the gold for Roys and the NWRC (Northwest Racing Circuit). He’s a four year old by Scat Daddy and out of stakes winner A Fleet Cat by Afleet Alex, and he’s won six races from seventeen lifetime runs to earn $176k. The colt was looking good in his three year old form, winning several allowance races on the turf after switching to the turf, but has had trouble converting on a stakes win, never being closer than four lengths in his four attempts at one. I’m leaving him off the ticket at 23-1 but will be cheering him on as an NWRC member.

   12    Bel of Ekati heads to Brazil for Quilly and the URC (Universal Racing Club) off a three race win streak and obviously wants to make it three with a gold medal. He’s a four year old Bel Esprit colt out of Tale of Ekati mare Sneek Peek, and has made $401k on ten wins from fifteen lifetime starts. His two major triumphs include the Edison in a Lord Turf Challenge and the Bally’s Chorus G3. He moved up to a mile for the first time in his career last out in a hot race, winning that easily, but he might be in deep waters here, and there still isn’t a lot of proof that he can handle a mile, so I will leave this one off the podium at 18-1.

The ESR (Empire State Racing) runner    13    Choice Of Sides is one who started to really excel in his four year old form and is now a grade one winner at five. He’s a five year old male by Redoute’s Choice and out of the G2-winning Kingmambo mare Rainy Reina, and has won nine times from twenty-two lifetime tries heading into this event, earning 941k. His major trophies are the Church Mound Stakes G2 and the Champions Mile G1. He was mostly a high-class allowance runner until late in his four year old campaign, where he showed in the David Hasselhoff G3, and won the Church Mound Stakes, and notched a G1 in April 2016, winning the Champions Mile by half a length, and winning an allowance last out. He’ll have a month and a half’s rest into this Equinics event, and I’m going to squeeze him in for a bronze medal here under the Beisbol stable.

The DelPenn National horse    14    Faster Than U Know is an inconsistent sort, looking like a possible G1 winner with a third in the Champions Mile and then finishing eleventh in the Queen Sam G1. He’s a four year old colt by Fastnet Rock and scratch bred to the DS Lyphard and has won four races on fifteen tries earning $244k for Baggio. He’s graded placed but has never scored in a stakes event. The colt was stakes placed five starts back, and followed that up with a tenth place showing the next time out. Two back he showed in a G1, and following that finished way off the board at the same class. The colt is very unreliable, and so I’ll leave him off the ticket at 26-1.

   15    Corazon Espinado runs for Haack stables under the Espano Parlante residency, and was a dirt runner before his grass start, where he begun to excel. He’s a Giant’s Causeway colt out of Sadler’s Wells mare Verdugaza, winning nine times on seventeen runs, earning $594k. His only Major win is the Bourbon Mile G2 three starts back. The four year old colt has really begun improving recently, going three for five so far in 2016, winning a G2 and two allowances. In his last two he showed in the Cobbler Mile G1 and was fourth by four in the Sparkler Handicap G2. I think he’s a nice colt and is really coming into his own right now, and has some potential here, so I’m going to list him as my first longshot play at 14-1.

Running for the GR Simsters, we have    16    Widow’s Vengeance, a horse who won the Cobbler Mile G1 two back, and missing by a head last out in the Sparkler Handicap. He’s a five-year-old scratch-bred bay horse by Lonhro, with Kris S providing the DS services for the eleven time winner on seventeen lifetime runs, earning Lenny $1.37 Million. Big wins include the Otto Rock Turf Mile, the Bad Things Mile G3, the Dixiedixie Turf Sprint, the Dell Web Mile G2, the GR Simsters Mile, the Kongs Redhead Turf Mile, the UQG Sprinter Turf Sprint, and the Cobbler Mile G1. He’s been sharp as a tack on recent form, winning the Cobbler Mile two starts back and being out-bobbed by double Eclipse winner Stillwatersrundeep in the Sparkler Handicap G2. This horse looks primed for glory, and I’m going to select him for the gold medal win as the lukewarm 7-1 chalk.

   17    Tete Nils runs for EURO (European Union Racing Organization) under owner Sabbath, and recently won his first graded stakes event in his sixth attempt, winning the Premium Stakes G2. This is a four year old horse by Invincible Spirit out of Druj In The Storm who was by Sadler’s Wells, and has won seven of twenty-one lifetime starts to earn $588k. Big wins include the G2 Premium Stakes and the Huge Tale Turf Mile but has been stakes placed six times. Other than Bel of Ekati and Choice of Sides he looks like the big speed and it could work out for him, but the closers are probably too powerful to place him on the podium at 14-1.

   18    Flagofconvenience goes for the MRC (Megalopolis Racing Circuit) and FastNFirm but has been having a tough time on the track recently. He’s a four time winner on twenty-two starts and is by Starspangledbanner out of Dixieland Band mare Molly Pitcher. He’s got no major wins to speak of. In his last graded stakes try he was never a factor, running thirteenth, and finishing tenth in his previous stakes run. It looks like he’ll probably be a non-factor again at 22-1.

   19    Rough Traitor rounds out the field for 3away Stables and the BANRC (British and Nordic Racing Club), and has been a young star in Japan in 2016, winning a G3 and showing in a G2. He’s a four year old colt by Ofevre and scratch-bred to Danehill as the DS and is a four time winner from nine lifetime entries. His only major victory was the G3 Milers Cup. He can become a top Japanese horse soon, and he may be in line for a top 5 finish in here at 21-1, so I’m going to add him as a longshot play off a big run in the G2 Yasuda Mile at 21-1.

The Podium
Gold- Widow’s Vengeance, GR Simsters
Silver- Queen Named Barb, Pastures Of Green
Bronze- Choice Of Side, ESR

Longshot Play #1- Corazon Espinado, Espano Parlante
Longshot Play #2- Rough Traitor, BANRC.

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Jul 012016
 

13 Stakes Winning Fillies Contest The Foul Mouth Stakes

Each year the Foul Mouth consistently plays host to some great aged fillies, and this years edition is no different, with 13 stakes winners including Eclipse Award recipient, Jessa. The girls will fight for $750,000 over one mile on the firm turf in Newmarket, England; let’s meet them.

    1     Summer Kingdom is the filly who has finished second to Invincible Cadet two starts in a row, and now will obviously look for an opportunity to defeat her rival and become Animal Kingdom’s first G1 winner. Prior to 2016, the filly had won one listed stakes race, placed in another, and won a G3. Starting off her junior season, the filly went wire-to-wire in the Mountain Vista G2, winning by two lengths in Cali over a mile. In her next race, Invincible Cadet and she battled tooth and nail down the stretch after Summer Kingdom had led all the way, but Invincible Cadet just got the better of her by a head after she had set a :45.1 half. A month and a half after that contest, the two met again, this time racing for the Weedy Establishment Stakes G1, but Invincible Cadet was the best this time, beating Summer Kingdom by a clear two lengths this time, last out for both runners. Summer Kingdom will try to bring JA Racing Stables that win this time, but I’m going to say she’ll finish second to her rival once more, as my second pick at 9-1.

[   2   ] Never Win These recently moved on to the turf and discovered a surprising aptitude for the surface, winning two of her first four on the lawn after running poorly in a maiden race and then winning on it in her first allowance start and going back to the dirt. Prior to 2016, the Tizway filly had won a listed stakes event, placed in another, and won the Lool Oaks as her notable performances, as well as three good turf runs in her last three starts of the year. The frontrunner was forced to duel to a :45.4 first half in her 2016 debut, and still fought to the wire but was picked up by Outback Echuca and In The System in the last eighth. In her next outing, Never Win These flattened out uncharacteristically and ran tenth by six lengths in the Orange Blossom G1, but seemed to race much better in her last start, as she opened up a monstrous lead in the Breeders Bowl Game G1, and was only beaten by one horse, finishing second by a length and a half. Conditioner Tyedye has done wonders to get his filly back into form after her bad run in the Orange Blossom, and the horse could certainly win here, and I’m going to list her as my longshot play at 10-1.

   3    Jessa came back to form in her most recent after a very rough start to 2016, finishing ninth in both starts before winning her most recent. The Fernando-conditioned filly also had a poor end to 2015, finishing out of the money four starts in a row after winning three of her first five. Previously, the impeccably-bred daughter of Galileo had won the Japanese 1000 Guineas, the French 1000 Guineas, and the Start Up G1, but it had been a bad start to the 2016 season as she lost by five lengths finishing ninth in the Kyoto Highway G3 and running ninth by six in the Blood Bond Stakes G2. In her last start though, as she shipped back to Texas, the filly out of stakes winner Fourth Spice Filly ran a little closer to the pace and pounced after the frontrunners set a blazing :45.3 first half to win the Board Game Distaff G3. I think the filly is going to finish off the ticket once more in 2016 at odds of 10-1, though you can probably expect her to pick up a check in fourth or fifth.

   4    Securities Fraud comes into this race off of a G3 win and a fifth place finish in the Breeder’s Bowl Game G1. Owned by the Skunkbarn, this filly by Smart Strike has won a listed stakes, the G2 Mrs. Cleaver Stakes and the G3 Kentucky Distaff. Wrapping up her sophomore season, the filly by Smart Strike won the G2 Mrs. Cleaver, coming from four lengths off the pace and soaring away to a two length win. For her first start as a four year old, she took on a listed stakes event in Vermont, but it was a very average start as the filly finished sixth by six lengths with a 101 SP. After placing in an allowance and winning another, the filly took on the G3 Kentucky Distaff, where she made an early rally at the 3/8ths pole and won by just under a length, posting a career-best 115 speed figure. In her last start, the filly out of G1 winner Manipulated Market entered the Breeders Bowl Game G1, as did two of our other runners today, and the filly put in a respectable performance, finishing fifth by about three lengths. This field may be a little to tough for this filly at this time and thus she’s not in my top three at 6-1.

   5    Saphire Spin is a four year old by Hard Spun, out of G2 winner Saphire Blue, trained by Mtkplaz. The filly had been somewhat unnoticed until her last start, as she had won a maiden race and three allowances on twelve runs, including off-the-board finished in three listed stakes. However, in her last race, the filly finally nailed that listed stakes win at seven and a half furlongs, beating seven others, ridden by G Ashbaugh and delivering a career-high 110 SP. The mare is definitely making headway, but I can’t see her beating some of the great horses In this field. She’s 13-1.

  6    Breathtaking Freak has had a rough go of it since she won her first G1 in October of 2015, failing to finish in the top five in her four most recent starts, her best try in the G3 Park Place Express, where she finished seventh by three lengths. In her sophomore season, the mare had been doing very well, placing in a G3, finishing third in the 2015 Foul Mouth G1 and the Start Up G1 and winning the Prix Marcell Boss G1 in October. However, in her next trip to the starting gate, the daughter of Frankel went to the front (contrary to her usual pressing or closing style) and faded to finish thirteenth by eleven lengths in the G1 Empire Rose. Her next start wasn’t much better, as she shipped into California for the Motherly Love Stakes G1 and finished eleventh by ten lengths to wrap up her three year old season. Three months later in her 2016 debut in the G3 Park Place Express, the Bob Marley-conditioned mare was never really looking like a winner, finishing seventh by three, but never got closer than two lengths. Her rough start continued in her last run, as she finished eighth by five lengths in the Ridgewood Jewel G3, with a 102 SP. Obviously the trainer believes that they’ve gotten her back into form, so watch the tote board, but I can’t see her in the Winners’ Circle. Her morning line odds are 12-1.

   7    Golden Livery looked very bad in her last start despite looking very good in the three prior starts in grade three races. The six year old by Elusive Quality has been in contention in high classes since her three year old season, placing in the Winston Spa G2, the Empire Rose G1, and showing in the Horse Station Stakes G2, while never failing to finish worse than fifth until her final start of 2014. The mare has run just four times in the past two years, perhaps because she may have been injured in the Bayside Triumph G2, which caused her to be sidelined for almost nine months. In her first start back (in 2015), she went onto the dirt for the second time ever and put in a very solid performance, finishing third by a half length in the Wiley Jenny G3. Her next run was even better, winning the Honorable Dame G3 by two lengths after five months off. Her next race was also decent, running fourth in the Nakayama Lady G3 by four lengths, again off a large layoff of six months this time. Two months later, she took part in the Blue Wind G3, putting in her worst performance since the Bayside Triumph, as she was never a factor finishing ninth by fourteen lengths. Trainer Cloudkye believes their horse is in form again, but I can’t put her on my ticket. Her odds are 13-1.

   8    Doom Tracker was off to a good start in 2016 after she finished second in the Kyoto Highway G3, but has seemed to drop off in her past two starts, finishing sixth in the G2 Blood Bond Stakes and eleventh in the Ridgewood Jewel G3. The filly’s notable starts were placing in a listed stake, placing in four G3s, winning the G2 Mother Stakes, and placing in the French 1000 Guineas. In her last run of 2015, the daughter of Commands had finished second in the Carp Fillies Guineas by half a length to another entrant in this race, Barb Never Quits. The Daninja entrant also looked very nice in her four year old debut, finishing second in the Kyoto Highway G3 by a neck behind Invincible Cadet, the co-favourite in this race. However, she seemed somewhat less sharp in the G2 Blood Bond Stakes, as she actually lost ground in the last quarter, and ran sixth by five and a half lengths. In her last race though, she looked the worst she’s been since her only run on the dirt, last year. In the G3 Ridgewood Jewel, the filly out of stakes winner Medicine Water deuled for the early advantage, but had no pace for the rest of the race, running eleventh by six lengths, and dipping below the 100 SP mark with a 99. The horse seems to be out of form, and I can’t justify including her in my top three. Her morning line is 10-1.

   9    The Devil Decides decided to kick it up a notch in her latest start, winning the Ugly Breeder’s Bowl Distaff G1, making a move from ten lengths behind at the third call to win by two lengths and post a 117 speed figure. Prior to this win, the Dubawi-sired filly had won two listed stakes events, a Liken it Local invitational race, and the Saint Ana G2. The four year old bay has won one race at a mile from one attempt (at the allowance level), and cuts back from a mile and an eighth for this event. The filly looks very sharp walking into to England following a sixth place finish in a G3 two starts back and a G1 win last out. I think the horse can win this race but today I’m picking the Testbarn resident for third place at the odds of 6-1.

   10    Invincible Cadet has indeed been invincible in her past 5 starts, slowly climbing up the class ladder, winning two allowances, a listed stake, a grade three, a grade two, and most recently a grade one. The turf specialist has finished off the board in only one career start, showing once, placing five times, and winning nine races on fifteen starts, with eight of the wins coming at a mile distance. Prior to 2016, the filly had moved up from a conditioned allowance to a listed stakes event, which she won by two lengths with a career best 114 SP. Two months later in February, the Cadet trainee moved into the G3 spot, shipping over to Japan for the Kyoto Highway, and beat Jessa along with several other graded stakes winners, including Doom Tracker, who she only beat by a neck for the win. Next on the itinerary for the talented filly by Invincible Spirit was the Blood Bond Stakes G2, over in New Zealand, and won by an even smaller margin, eking out a win by a head over Summer Kingdom, coming from seven lengths off the pace at the second call. Last out, the filly managed to spare her owner the blood pressure spike, beating Summer Kingdom again, this time by two lengths. They’ll have another bout in this one as well. Overall the four year old filly looks really strong heading into this contest. She’s taking on tougher competition than ever, but I’m going to give her the nod as my top pick at 6-1.

   11    Barb Never Quits has remained in form to start her four year old season, managing to finish second in the G2 Mountain Vista, and pick up checks in the G2 Blood Bond Stakes and the G1 Weedy Establishment Stakes. The Galileo-sired filly had become a good allowance runner until she burst onto the stakes scene in September 2015, winning the Aningan Turf Filly Dash, followed by a close call in the G2 New Zealand 1000 Dark Beers, running third by a neck. She continued her winning ways, capturing the Carp Fillies Guineas by half a length to finish her 2015 campaign. She carried this form into 2016, as she finished second by two lengths in the G2 Mountain Vista to Summer Kingdom. Her next start was a little less impressive as she finished fifth in the Blood Bond Stakes G2 by three lengths, but it was still okay nonetheless. Finally, in her last run, she finished fourth in the Weedy Establishment Stakes G1, trailing two of our other participants in this field and another stakes winner. She lost by four lengths, and I say you can expect a similar performance in this race, around fourth, fifth, or sixth. Her morning line odds are 8-1.

   12    The Sunmaker is the least experienced of the field, starting nine times, winning six and finishing off the board in the other three. Her previous notable starts include winning the Beaviss River Turf Mare Mile, New Zealand 1000 Dark Beers G2 and the Apple House Turf Mare Mile. In her first run of 2016, the daughter of Danehill Dancer finished fourth by four lengths in the Horse Station Stakes G2 over nine furlongs, over in South Africa. Her next race was a clunker, as she finished eighth by eighteen lengths in the Nakayama Lady G3, but she quickly returned to form, winning the Applehouse Turf Mare Mile. In her next, the filly was sent by RVD Stables to the Weedy Establishment Stakes, which contained three of the other runners today. Her effort was okay, as she finished sixth by five lengths in that event, and ran a decent 105 speed figure. I believe she’s probably outmatched in this field, and therefore I won’t include the 13-1 four year old in my top 3.

   13    Gun Love comes into this event on somewhat poor recent form despite a third place finish in the G3 Wilshire Boulevard, and looks to bounce back into a win here. Coming into 2016, the four year old filly has finished second in the Prix Marcel Boss G1 and had won the Motherly Love Stakes G1 to end her 2015 season. Her 2016 debut, however, was not so impressive, as she was beaten by eight lengths to finish twelfth in the G2 Mountain Vista, making only a very delayed and futile move. The rocky start continued for the daughter of Cape Cross, losing by twenty lengths in the Saint Ana G2, but conditioner Magoo reported soreness after the race. Whatever issues occurred during that start, they seemed to have been fixed by her next run in the Wilshire Boulevard G3, as she finished a game third by a length and a half, and a respectable 109 SP. However, last out, the troubles returned, running tenth by seven lengths in the Breeder’s Bowl Game G1, but still posting a decent 104 figure. The filly’s four year old campaign has started off rough, and I think that it will continue, at least for one more start, as I leave her off the ticket at 14-1.

A very wide open betting board here, with the co-favourites being 6-1 on the morning line.

1st: Invincible Cadet (   10   )

2nd: Summer Kingdom (   1   )

3rd: The Devil Decides (   9   )

Longshot Play: Never Win These ([  2  ])

Views (498)

Jan 182016
 

The 2015 Three-Year-Old Dirt Male Eclipse Winner: FAKE HONEYMOON

     By BERNARDINI out of the stakes winning mare ACROSS THE SUNRISE (by SADLER’S WELLS), a mare which now has produced three GI winners, your 2015 Three-Year-Old Dirt Colt Eclipse winner is: FAKE HONEYMOON! Congratulations to the spectacular Lenny on this amazing triumph, and a job-well-done on a great training effort this year! An earner of over $5,000,000 and your 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Classic Champion, there is no horse more deserving. Let’s take a look at this equine’s stunning career.
On his debut in 2014, he looked very good. He sported an 82 speed rating while finishing second to the now-GII winning VOADKYN- a horse he would start a rivalry with for a few races to come. He also did well in his second running, while managing an 80 speed rating, the colt seemed just a little too far behind and crossed the wire third by two. Lenny stretched him out to a mile in his third running, a move that paid off when the horse ran down nine foes to break his maiden in 1:37.3. He unfortunately went cold for the rest of 2014, finishing third twice and second once in the NW2L allowance classes, bringing us to 2015. I asked Lenny if he knew the kind of horse he had after his two-year-old campaign: “He didn’t show much right away, but I was hopeful he’d want more ground based on a couple of his siblings. He is half brother to New Yorker winner EVIL SUNRISE and half brother to Travelers winner MR. FIX IT, so I was really looking forward to this year.”
The promising colt started 2015 off right, scoring his second win by a neck at Belmont over nine furlongs on the dirt course in 1:49.2.
The bay carried the momentum on to The Niagara Falls Stakes where he bested two future Derby runners in BELT LINE ROAD and BLUEGRASS BOLT, running down BLUEGRASS BOLT and beating them both by three-and-a-half lengths with a 107 speed rating and K Banner aboard. Lenny was thinking Derby after that win: “After his win in The Niagara Falls stakes, I was definitely hoping to make a Derby push.”
On April fifth, the colt switched riders back to R Radzinski, his regular jockey, and targeted the Taughannock Falls GI. He broke well, but appeared to be boxed in for most of the contest, and the colt struggled to find running room around the turn. The colt finished sixth by about six lengths, and a 99 SP. He was also beat by VOADKYN, who finished fourth. Lenny commented on his dashed Derby dreams: “I was very disappointed in his poor outing in the Taughannock Falls GI. At that point I figured I’d try and get some long points and shoot for the New Yorker.”
Less than a month later on May first, Lenny’s horse ran outside of New York for the first time in Mexico, and he did it well, winning the Volotile Seattle Dirt Route by over three lengths, gaining those long points, and beating three now-stakes winners and VOADKYN, which will be the last time he’ll match up against FAKE HONEYMOON.
Lenny then, as said before, decided to take a shot on one of the biggest races on the Sim calendar- the New Yorker GI, for a purse of $3,000,000. He closed at 9-1, the colt broke well and found a nice position for the early going. He started his move midway down the backstretch, and was forced three-wide on the turn. Unfortunately, it looks like the ground loss was the deciding factor, coupled with the race being two furlongs longer than any race he’d ever run, as he ran out of pace with a sixteenth to go, and SUSPECT OF HERESY held on for the win by half-of-a-length over FAKE HONEYMOON in second. An amazing race all considered, and you bet the colt wasn’t done there.
Next stop- Woodbine. Lenny sends his colt outside of New York state for only the second time ever, north of the border to this writer’s home track for the Clerk Of Scales GI. He opened up at 6-1 and let about five runners challenge from the early lead. At the five-eighths pole, K Banner set him free, and he responded like a monster. The horse passed the staggering leaders and took home the gold, winning by two lengths in 1:53.3 over a mile and three-sixteenths, beating out derby winner SWINGING BIG SHAFT, GI winner SMASH A BULB, and California Derby winner WASHINGTON HUSKIES.
Back in New York, Lenny put his stunning colt on the Breeder’s Bowl path, it appears, as he entered the horse into the Traveler’s Stakes. The 7-1 second choice was misplaced early by rider L Radzinski, dropping back to thirteenth, lower than the horse typically enjoys, and as a result did not have enough track to hit the board, despite flying home to finish fourth by five lengths. BAYOU BULLET won the race, earning him a slot in the Breeder’s Bowl Classic, with the derby winner in second, and SUSPECT OF HERESY third.
Trying again for a BB Classic berth, it was the Jockey Guild Gold Cup for FAKE HONEYMOON over ten furlongs, and he entered the run at 13-1, with the favourite being the eventual winner, ANDREW’S IMPACT. It looked like he was the winner as they entered the turn, as he was in his favoured spot after L Radzinski was chewed out by Lenny after the Travelers. He was picking up ground, but the top three just had too much in the tank, and Lenny’s runner finished fourth. However, he earned a spot in the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Classic, the biggest race of the year. And *SPOILER ALERT* (not really), it becomes the crowning moment of the horse’s two-year career.
Breeder’s Bowl day 2015. By the time the 11th race of the day rolled around, the Classic, FAKE HONEYMOON was 18-1. INCULPATE was the favourite at 7-1, and the record field of twenty included future Hall of Famer I WON’T LOOK BACK, along with nine other Grade I winners, and derby winner SWINGING BIG SHAFT. As the gates opened, leading rider T Ace went all in with longshot READY TO TRAVEL, as he led by two into the first quarter. L Radzinski got the call from Lenny, and sent him to mid-pack in tenth in the early goings. Around the turn, FAKE HONEYMOON held his ground, keeping tenth position, but being closer to the pace than his typical starts, down by five lengths at the half. As usual, he started his move as they approached the turn and rocketed by company, stealing the lead from SWINGING BIG SHAFT (who had passed the leader on the turn), and dueling the late-closing ANDREW’S IMPACT, and edging him out for a Breeder’s Bowl Classic win! He paid $37.90 to win, and ran the mile-and-a-quarter in 2:00 flat. I asked Lenny if he ever felt his horse would’ve won the Breeder’s Bowl Classic, and how he felt when he won it, he said: “I truly didn’t expect to win the Classic with Fake Honeymoon. It has been my experience that most horses who run well enough to qualify for the Classics in the spring rarely hold their form later that year. In addition the field was simply amazing and included a record 20 runners. The Classic was one of a few races left on my Sim bucket list, so when I won I was amazed and excited at the same time. It is among a handful of my favorite wins ever.”
Unfortunately, the horse used it’s last bit of energy to bring home the gold in the Classic, and so when Lenny opted to run him again on December fifth in the Japan Dirt Cup GI, he had no horse to make his usual move. He ran eighth by nine in that contest.
The season of the Champion 3yo Dirt Male was a very special one, especially for ecstatic owner, Lenny. He owns an absolutely amazing animal, and his plans for next year are, well, nothing: “As far as his 2016 campaign, I haven’t given it much thought yet,” said Lenny. “I have zero expectations. I’d be surprised if he follows up last year with anything even close, but I’ll bring him back off of an extended break with a light prep before Dubai. Anything this year is a bonus.”
Congratulations Lenny, and congratulations FAKE HONEYMOON. We all wish your horse the best of luck in 2016!

Views (327)

Oct 292015
 

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile

Kentucky (KY) | Saturday, October 23, 2015 | 2:40 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 2yos Only | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile plays host to some of the world’s best dirt rookies, including the second rated two-year old dirt horse in the world STORM CAT HUMOR, third rated in the dirt rookie category LION’S SLEW, and fifth rated horse in the category LIGHTNING STRIFE, among others. With fourteen owners trying to give their horses the best chance at winning the biggest two-year-old race in the world, it should be a great one. Let’s go now to the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile.

    1     HADROSAUR (SKOR) lost will last time out in the North Fork GI, falling from first to tenth in that outing. He is by HANSEN out of stakes winning mare SOUR GOLF, but this is her only stakes winning (and graded stakes winning) foal. His only notable win is the GIII Pea Patch Juvenile two starts back. The colt may have trouble with his up-front running style, with several other of those types of runners attempting the Juvy. This could be a tough one for the youngster, and he’s a longshot at 17-1. His owner was not available to comment on him.

|   2   | LINGERING SMOKE (USA) is stepping up from the GIII level with his first major win (and start) of his career on Saturday. This scratch-bred is by DROSSELMEYER and uses the DS DEHERE, which seems to have been a pretty potent mix. His only major win was the GIII Charcoal Breeder’s Cup. Racing on the slop for that one and racing in a route for the second time, he looked dominant. However, it’s a massive undertaking to go from a GIII to the BB. He’s gonna need to sweat for all he’s worth to win this one. Steve555 did not comment on his horse’s chances.

    3     BLANK SPACE (USA) is also a GIII stepper, coming up from a win in the Times Square Derby. By TAPIT, and out of GI winning mare TAYLOR’S STORY (who is also out of a GI winner), his pedigree was very promising, and as a two-year-old GIII winner, I’d say he’s lived up to expectations. With his first major win last time, and a 100 SP, he looks good into the race. However, he is also going to have to run strongly to beat this strong bunch. The colt is 7-1, but unfortunately, Deyoto was unavailable for an interview.

    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE (USA) comes off the first grade one win of his career. His big wins have been the GIII Trixy Delight’s Special and the GI North Fork Stakes. By superstar AWESOME AGAIN, and out of the stakes winning mare MAGPIES CAT- who has produced two GI winners, two GII winners and two other stakes winners, this colt is incredibly well bred. Very impressive last time in the GI North Fork Stakes, this colt swept by foes to win- seemingly easily. This colt has a fantastic career ahead of him, especially if he wins the BB Juvenile. A good bet at 7-1. Here’s the word from trainer Punter34: “Pretty happy with how the horse has progressed and hoping he will give a good show. Been playing this game long enough to know anything can happen but wouldn’t swap my horse for anything. Hopefully he can get a nice position and finish off like he has been.”

    5     PULPASNITZ (USA) has GI experience, finishing third last time in the North Fork Stakes. By SNITZEL and out of a mare who is yet to produce a stakes winner (yes, including this colt), his breeding was no guarantee. Nonetheless, the colt can produce with a good move in the North Fork. Racing against many horses who were also in that grade one, he will need to step it up, but has a good chance led by N Lawton, the rider who guided him in that North Fork Stakes. The horse has the talent, but he will need a good trip. I’d take his odds of 15-1, at least in your pick four. I could not find Sixesplus (a singular stable, with just eleven horses), this horse’s owner.

    6     DEADMONEY CADET (USA) comes up from an End Of The Line Futurity GI, where he actually gained late, but lost a position, as he finished third by a neck. He doesn’t have any major wins besides a listed stakes (the June Stakes 100k), but has been close in his past two. A scratch-bred by great sire MORE THAN READY, with the DS UNBRIDLED’S SONG, his breeding is spectacular, and he’s currently looking very promising. A colt that can get it done at 9-1 off a good performance. Here’s what Cadet had to say: “DEADMONEY CADET is pretty game and has been training sharply. We have been working him in company behind horses to get him to rate his speed a bit more. I feel he was a bit dead in the stretch in his last run and will need to improve his kick in order to get the top spot in the BB. DEADMONEY has shown top class and guts this year grinding out a couple graded placings, I feel a similar effort in the BB would be satisfactory, obviously getting as many graded points towards the derby is the plan. A lot of talented 2 yr olds are in the entry box and a couple that have already posted triple digit figures. Looks like might be a top 5 choice, but the only one without graded success. A change in tactics, third run at two turns, a little improvement, a lot of racing luck, and we feel he might just be good enough.”

    7     VYRANTIUM (USA) is one of the more experienced of the bunch, with four wins from seven starts. He’s got one listed stakes victory and one major win in the GII Hoserhead Stakes. By very good sire MORE THAN READY and out of stakes winning mare BREAKNECK, who has produced one GII winner (this colt) and two other stakes winners among five runners. In his past two, she was third by three lengths in the Hopeless Stakes GI, and moving into a routing contest for the first time, the distance clearly helped, as he was second by only a head in that contest (to NUREYEV’S GHOST), while switching to his regular jock’s brother, R Radzinski. Today I think the colt has a very good chance, but the shorter rest may hinder the youngster. Nonetheless, he looks sharp at 7-1, and his trainer said this: “There’s good news and bad news going into the race for me. Good news is his mare was best at 8.5/9F. Bad news is his siblings have been better sprinting. Tough race with a lot of runners who have already won routing – something my guy hasn’t done. I could win or run last – it looks to be a very competitive race.”

    8     STORM CAT HUMOR (USA) is off a terrific three race winning streak, in which all of her major wins have occurred. Those are: the GIII Montana Futurity, the GII Standford, and the GI Dell Computer Futurity. A scratch-bred by DISTORTED HUMOR, using STORM CAT as the dam-sire, the breeding has clearly been effective. With the most earnings of any starter ($801,360), he’s improving with every run. The colt however, does not have any route experience, though he did seem to enjoy seven furlongs last time. His mid-pack style could suit today’s distance, but it’s hard to tell his abilities as a router. He still looks very good. He’s 8-1, and here’s what his owner had to say: “This has been one of my favorite horses in the barn. After starting his career overseas I brought him to the states back in June with this race as the goal. He has proved to be a top sprinter but I think he could get better as he stretches out. I mapped out his path to this race early and wanted him to have a little break before this race. He won the Dell Computer Futurity very easily and looked like he had plenty left in that race. Think he has a big chance here.”

    9     MAKE EM BELIEVE (USA) bounced back well in the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile, following a poor performance in the GII Hoserhead Juvenile GII. By MACHO UNO and out of a GII winning mare JUPITER THE SEA, the good breeding has paid off. With major wins in the GII Vermont BB Juvenile and the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile. He looks sharp coming off a nice win in a route for the first time, and he looks good for all exotic wagering at 13-1. His owner, Mrxrayz, could not be found to comment on any of his three runners.

   10    KAMDEN (USA) enters just the third race of his career, taking a sharp step up to the GI level from allowance last time. No major wins to date. This scratch-bred is by BLAME, with the dam-sire A. P. INDY, and is well bred. After a maiden win with an 84 SP, he was second in his NW2l allowance. Taking a very big step, he then made a move for the North Fork Stakes GI and was beaten by none other than LIGHTNING STRIFE, finishing second by two lengths. This colt shows a lot of potential, and can very well win the Juvy in the fourth start of his career. You’ll find 11-1 on him. No word from his trainer.

   11    LION’S SLEW (TUR) represents one of two international-born colts, and looks very good to take it for Turkey. He’s a scratch-bred by LION HEART, and the dam-sire SEATTLE SLEW. This colt won the Hopeless Stakes GI in his most recent (his only major win), going wire-to-wire. His career high SP jumped from an 86 to a 98 as well in that contest, and he now switches to two turn racing for the first time. Guided by A Jolly, who is a slight downgrade from T Ace- who he got last time, but this horse looks ready to go. A good choice at a fantastic 11-1. His owner, Stockswami said this: “He has been a real joy to be around. He is less then 1/2 length from being a perfect 6 for 6. Like many of the top horses at this stage he has shown a tendency to jump right to the front and see if anyone can catch him. So far that has been a winning formula but with many horses wanting to run the same type race, this should be a fun one to watch. If he can get the distance he could be tough.”

   12    MACH THREE LAUNCH (USA) moves up from his second GIII in a row, catching by half a length in his latest at a mile. By MACHO UNO out of REDHEAD NICOLE, who has three stakes winners (including this colt) in her progeny count. After a big win, the colt gets jockey S Ledwith, and needs a good trip to get it done. From a GIII to the Breeder’s Bowl is a tough step. He’s 12-1. Again, Mrxrayz could not be found for a comment.

   13    NUREYEV’S GHOST (USA) recently scored his first GI win, going wire-to-wire in the End Of The Line Futurity, and headbobbed his way to victory to win by a head. That was his only major win to date. The scratch-bred by GHOSTZAPPER has now covered his breeding cost and more. Of five races, the colt has a maiden win, allowance win, and GI win, while finishing third in one of two listed stakes starts. This colt has a lot of early speed and looks worthy of a Breeder’s Bowl win with a most recent 97 speed rating. He’s 7-1, and we’ll go to trainer Stockswami to comment on one of his three entries: “He is another horse that likes to get out in front and let everyone else play catch up. The one thing he has over my other two horses is he has shown he can get this distance. He seems to be improving the more distance he runs. He also gets one of the top Jockeys in the world, so think he has a good shot of being somewhere close at the finish.”

   14    GIANT STORM BREWIN (USA) was a live third in the Sparkling Wine Stakes GI, and will look to improve on that performance here. He’s got no major wins to his name, but two big ITM finishes. By GIO PONTI out of allowance winning dam NORTHWEST PASSAGE II (the first one was unsafe?) who has one stakes winner and one GII winner as her notable offspring. He looks for his first stakes win, and that could be a tough undertaking in a BB race. He’s a nice horse, but from the fourteen hole, it’ll be tough. He’s 12-1, and here’s what his connections say: “GIANT STORM BREWIN should relish the extra half furlong. I had high hopes early in his career after winning his first two starts, but he was pretty mediocre after that…until he really surprised me in the G2 7f race. I really just threw him in there because there weren’t any good matching conditions available. He really surprised there and followed up with the 3rd in the G1 to earn his chance. Honestly, I’m good with wherever he finishes because I really had no expectations in either of those previous two. Jock “J Dawg” has really seemed to get extra out of him so hoping he chooses on this week.” Unfortunately, it looks like J Dawg has chosen to bypass the Juvenile.

My Selections

1-    8     STORM CAT HUMOR

2-    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE

3-    7     VYRANTIUM

Longshot Play-   11    LION’S SLEW

Views (549)

Oct 282015
 

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Distaff

Kentucky (KY) | Saturday, October 31, 2015 | 2:30 PM EST
Grade I | $3,000,000 | 3yo+, F&M Only | 9 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

This 2015 rendition of the BB Distaff will pit some of the world’s best mares against each other for a top prize of $3,000,000. It should be a very exciting race, and I’m excited to cover it. It’s Breeder’s Bowl weekend, the most exciting weekend on the Sim calender, home to the world’s best horses! Without further ado, here’s my coverage of the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Distaff!

    1     BARDEN BELLA ranks third among fillies and mares in the EOY Award rankings, and for good reason. She has two GI wins and one GII win in her past five, as well as one on-the-board finish in a GI. Her notable career wins include the GIII Meadows Oaks, the GII Cotton Handicap, the GI Santa Marina Handicap, GI Steadhemp/Mike Phipps Handicap, and the GII Clemente. By top 2014 sire STREET CRY and out of stakes winning mare KITTY KATZ who has foaled a GII winners and two stakes winners along with this grade one winner, she’s impeccably bred. In her last race however, she was trumped in the Bra Snap GI, won by OIL FOREVER, where she was seventh by seven lengths, and I asked her trainer, Theoc, what happened: “I really don’t know what happened in her last race, I think she just had an off day. If she draws inside, she typically runs her race so this run as the favorite was puzzling. I hope she can rebound in the BB Distaff since some of her biggest wins came after disappointing runs. I hope to lure a jockey that knows her and that she draws inside. I honestly think she will show her true form in the Distaff and hit the board at a minimum.” I believe she can bounce back and win this race, and she may have just had an off day as her trainer implied. A great horse, and probably worth the bet at 7-1.

|   2   | SILVER SHOT K dropped in class last time from a GIII to a listed stakes where she won by two lengths. Major wins include the GI California Oaks, GIII Northern Oaks, GII Jump Town Handicap, and the GII Northern Lights. By TRAPPE SHOT, this is a bargain bred out of a mare whose only allowance winner or higher has been this filly. She did dominate that last listed stakes race, but has been having trouble at higher classes as of late. Including three also-rans in the GII First State Distaff, GII Clemente and GIII Chicago Matron Handicap. The seasoned horse who was fourth in last year’s Distaff, second in the GI Players Club National Oaks, and second in the Bluegrass Oaks seems to be dropping in form lately. She’s going to need a big bounce-back performance to win a race in the highest caliber in the world. Here’s what Murray1 says about his 5-1 shot: “Silver Shot ran very well in her most recent race but to be honest I will be happy if she hits the board.” Short but sweet.

    3     MISS MO has been on a GI winning tear this season, and seems to be hitting her peak as a three-year-old. She’s by UNCLE MO out of a mare with fantastic pedigree but was a flop on the track, and besides this filly, hasn’t been great in the breeding shed- ACT QUICKLY. The filly started the 2015 campaign with a poor tenth in the Local Championship Stakes for Kentucky, but rebounded to win a listed stakes next time out. Stepping up to the GI level, she scored in the GI Miss Consolation at 12-1, and she kept the doubters guessing in her next start by winning the GI Sister Hen Stakes. Unfortunately she was finally defeated at ten furlongs last time in the Birmingham Stakes GI and the extra furlong killed her, falling back to fifth in the final furlong. But she’s back to nine furlongs, and she’s a very valuable play as the bookies have placed her at 22-1. I recommend a bet at big odds, and this is what trainer Kashbarn had to comment: “She has turned out to be a big surprise to me, far exceeding my expectations. She’s my first and only G1 winner. It is going to be a tough field and I debated not entering her but I figured that being eligible for a Breeders’ Bowl race does not come every day so I opted to go for it. Her last start was rough and the 10 furlong distance was a concern. She got caught up in a front end battle which did not work out well and the distance I feel may have been a tad too long. Going back to 9 furlongs is the distance that she has won in her prior two starts and is a better fit than the 10 furlongs. She’s been training well for the race and looks pretty relaxed. I expect a good run from her but it is always hard when you are going against the best of the best and it’s an honor to be in the race.”

    4     MEZTLI MOON hasn’t been her best self lately and will hope to turn the year around here. By MALIBU MOON, the scratch-bred filly has the damsire of DEPUTY MINISTER and has some very good breeding. Her major wins are the GI Getaway Stakes and the GI Movieland Scarlet. She finished her 2014 season with a bang after a second in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly and a win in the Movieland Scarlet GI. After a tightener in her first 2015 start to win an open allowance for fillies, but didn’t win another race in 2015. Her only highlights were a show in the Bluegrass Oaks GI and in her latest, a third by a length in the Cotton Handicap GII. She’s a great horse, but really needs to turn it around here to find a way to win. Watch for a sharp (or sluggish) workout. She’s 22-1, and here’s what her trainer Daniel said about her: “I had big hopes for Meztli Moon this year, she was super fast as 2yo, probably one of the fastest 2yo fillies ever, so I thought I’d give her a nice rest and was aiming for the Oaks, she started good in allowance and finished poorly in the graded attempt after that. I figured maybe I just got a good 2yo, but with a 3rd in the Oaks I was pleased and I think last start actually showed me she is trying to find the form again, overall it has been a very frustrating year, but she have managed to get enough points to get in. If she can improve her speed a bit, she will have a chance to finish top-5, if she manage to get top-3 I will be over the moon.”

    5     ARCHEZATA  is having a good 2015, but has been unsuccessful in her past three. She’s by ARCH out of allowance winning mare KAMIKAZE who is the mother of two GI winners, one GII winner and four other stakes winners. She’s won many listed stakes races, but her biggest glory is the Before This Please GI from May of this year. Three back, she never had a move in the Very Vane GI, and in her next, the Personal Sign GI, she finished third by two lengths. Her last however, was just a bad start, and ran seventh by four in a listed stakes. She’s really going to have to bounce back hard as she steps into the toughest competition of her life off one of the worst starts of her life at 9-1. Given is currently vacationing in Costa Rica, but here is his disgruntled comment about his runner: “She won a Grade 1 a long time ago and her form inexplicably tailed off immediately after. Seems to happen to all of my horses these days.”

    6     OIL FOREVER is ranked sixth among the fillies and mares division of the Eclipse rankings, and has been very strong racing at the graded stakes level for every entry from November 29, 2014 onwards. Mentionable victories include the GI Los Vinegrette Stakes, GI California Stakes and, most recently, the GI The Bra Snap. The sophomore filly by CANFORD CLIFFS out of OIL ON TOP an impeccable dam, all of whose three runners have been GI winners. Last time out in the Bra Snap, she beat two other GI winners, and several other stakes and graded stakes winners including the Eclipse Award- winning BENCHIAN FINGERS. This will be the second time in a row the filly tries aged company, and looks sharp and up to the task with a 113 last race speed figure. For superb trainer Pye, the filly is 13-1 and is definitely worth a big wager. Here’s what Pye had to say: “Feeling really good about OIL FOREVER in the distaff. She handled the older company well last start and her race spacing appears to have maintained a little bit of juice for these late-season races after a disappointing spring/summer. Her last 9f race was in the Oaks where she ran subpar (but not terrible) but I don’t expect distance to be a hindrance. Will feel extra confident if jock “A Rolling” gets in the irons again.”

    7     SUPER GOOD has stepped up from allowances after 6/21, where he won in dominating fashion, and tried the Gold Rush GIII, where he did not disappoint, winning by two lengths in a career record 106 SP. By SUPER SAVER, the colt’s scratch breeding was well founded. Major wins are only the GIII Gold Rush and GI The Leg Drop. She recently stepped into GIs, with her first at the class on August 22, 2015 and won, with a career high 109 SP in the GI Birmingham Stakes. Last time out, in the Leg Drop GI, and looks very sharp, with a 114 speed figure and a strong second place finish. I like the horse today, but the one point of concern is that she drops from eleven furlongs to nine, and I’m not sure how it will effect the horse, as she’s not tried the distance in a graded stakes race. She’s 12-1, and here’s what her trainer- Kingranch, had to say: “I’m really excited to run Super Good in the BB Distaff. I feel like this race might be a little short for her, she really fits better at 10f, Opportunities like this don’t come often, so you take your shot and hope for the best. My gal will be flying late, she has a massive closing kick.”

    8     MEGASTORM is another one racing on just less than a month’s rest, and on this one, it could be more of a hindrance than an advantage. She’s by MEDAGLIA D’ORO and out of the stakes winning mare ALBERTA STORM, who has foaled a stakes winner, GIII winner, and this GI winner on five starters. Her only major win is the GI Very Vane (as well as a listed stake). Both of those came in 2015, with the listed stakes win at the start of the year, while being run down to third in her next start, the Ramp Art Handicap GII. Next time out, in the GIII Route Sixty Six, she was unable to find the front, and had no late run, and finished fifth. In her best career win, next time out, two-and-a-half months later, had an easier time coming from the presser’s role, and won by a neck in the GI Very Vane. With her next start being a third in the GI Go For Gold Stakes where she ran third, and her last as a fourth in the Great Dame GI, I think it’d be more beneficial on more than a month’s rest. Her owner could not be reached for a comment, and she’s 7-1.

    9     SEBASTOPOL  has not won a GI race but has Breeder’s Bowl experience from last year’s Juvenile Filly where she finished fourth. This filly’s major win was the GII Fantasia Handicap. This is the only graded stakes winner for dam SONOMA COAST and remains one of two graded stakes winners by sire UNION RAGS. For the filly, four starts back was one of the best for her, as she lost by just a head in the Chestnut Stakes to MR. P’S MEDS. She appeared to be losing class as she stepped to the GIII level to finish fourth and second twice in a row, leading up to her last race. That race was the Cotton Handicap GII at Presque Isle, and won the early speed duel only to be run down by THREE OLIVE BARB and finish second. She’s stepping up big time here, and needs to put in a career best performance for this one. Her odds are 17-1, and here’s her trainer’s comment: “She’s been one of the more frustrating horses I’ve had. She was just caught for 3rd in the BB Juvenile Fillies last year after opening up a big lead, and ended up 4th. She had a big win in the G2 Fantasia in April earlier this year, a major prep for the Bluegrass Oaks. But then she totally flopped in the Oaks, finishing last. My hope is her poor performance was due more to bouncing off that big effort rather than the added distance, that being her only run at 9 furlongs. Then 5 weeks later, she was beaten a head in the G1 Chestnut. It was a really tough race to watch. 2 starts later, I guess she blew the break rallying from last, instead of being on the pace like she usually is. She was 2nd in that race too, again beaten by the horse that beat her in the Chestnut. Then in the G2 Cotton last time, she again took the lead only to get passed late, finishing 2nd. I’m hopeful for a win.”

   10    MR. P’S MEDS  has been on a very good streak lately, winning seven of her past nine, three at the listed stakes level, two at the GIII level, one at the GII level and one win at the GI level, with both losses at the GII and GI levels (with a third in the GI). Notable wins include the GIII Lady Bourbon, the GI Chestnut Stakes, GII First State Oaks and the GIII Jersey Oaks. By MEDAGLIA D’ORO, I’d say she’s paid off her breeding cost in dividends, with $1.2 million in earnings, and continues to impress. Last time, she battled every step of the way in the GII Cotton Handicap, and because of the suicidal speed duel, she finished fourth, but was very tough, losing by only one length. I believe that shows incredible heart for the three-year-old currently sitting eighteenth on the Eclipse Award point ladder, but the speed duel last time could have had an effect on the horse. That might not be an issue, with more than a month’s rest, but I still suggest watching for signs of fatigue in the paddock or post parade. Other than that I think the horse is very good and could very well take home a major cheque on Saturday. She’s 10-1, but her trainer, Jacklad, could not be reached for a comment.

   11    WHAT IS OBEDIENCE  has won her first GI last time and that is her only major win (with the exception of one listed stakes race)- it is the Great Dame. A scratch-bred by MALIBU MOON, and the dam-sire KRIS S, which turned out to be very good. With a very good win despite being challenged for the first two fractions, this colt made it look easy, winning by three lengths. She’s obviously got a lot of heart and muscle, and she’s looking like she’s in top form leading up to her Breeder’s Bowl try. The co-favourite at 5-1 looks good. Her trainer, Willyam, said this, in confidence: “I love my horse chances. Her victory in the Great Dame was quite impressive hopefully she will run her race on Saturday.”

   12    KUKAA SALAMA  is an experienced graded stakes runner, who was actually second by two lengths in the Distaff 2014 to Eclipse Award winner FIRST DEGREE BERN as a three year old. By super-sire STREET CRY and out of LALA SALAMA, a dam whose produced two stakes winners and one GII winner (this horse) from three runners, she makes another well-bred contender. Her record in graded stakes is twelve races and five wins, as well as five other in-the-money finishes. Notable wins include the GII Miss Bonnie, the GIII Denny Tario Stakes, GIII Rose Garden Handicap, and the GII Hoffa Cup last time out. As mentioned, her last start was in the GII Hoffa Cup on the good dirt against the boys. Her last two grade one tries weren’t great, but looking at her Hoffa Cup win, I’m confident that she’ll be sharp for this one, especially on less than a month’s rest. I like that angle off a bounceback win. She could upset here at 10-1. Here’s what Planoaxius thought about his horse: “Whole season, I hoped she could get in again. Unfortunately, first, she had some bad luck and in the second part of the season, she seemed to be slowing down a bit. After Superfilly Handicap I almost gave up as I didn’t expect 80 stakes pts would be enough for the Distaff. So, she ran against boys in G2, where is more stakes points to earn. And it was good decision – she is back. Personally, for me is great, that she can run again. I think her best days are over, so I don’t expect her to repeat 2nd spot from last year’s edition. Especially, now comes the time of the year when 3yos absolutely dominate the group events. But it’s also about prestige and for me it is always celebration to have horse in Breeders Bowl meeting. So, the goal was reached and now I am just going to watch the race.”

   13    IN THE SYSTEM has graduated from the allowance level and has been surprisingly good in her past three, on a three race win streak. A scratch-bred by TIZNOW, the filly has a Breeder’s Cup winning sire and she hopes to do the same on Saturday. Her mentionable achievements include the Superfilly Handicap GI and the Three Smokestakes Stakes GI (who this writer strongly recommended in his write-up of the contest). Both of those victories were in her last two starts, and it looks like she’s in the midst of her peak, and she’s got a very strong chance to make it three in one of the biggest races for fillies and mares in the world. I also like the shorter rest, because when a horse is in it’s peak, it keeps her sharp, and probably helps chances here. I like the price of 13-1 and the filly is worth the bet. Her owner Danno spoke about her: “I’ve never had a horse like this so I’m trying to be realistic about her chances. She’s coming off a short break into this race so I think she may not be 100%. But she’s been hot lately so I’ll still be hopeful that she gives a good effort”.

   14    OUTBACK LEETON has been having a rough half since May 1, where she was a non-factor in the Bluegrass Oaks GI. Her only noteworthy win has been the Land’s End GII. The scratch-bred by SMART STRIKE has very good breeding, with her dam-sire being STORM CAT. Her Bluegrass Oaks performance was not just a bump in the road however, as she continued to be a non-factor in the New Yorker (understandable on that one), Swamps Stakes GII, and the Birmingham Stakes GI. She wasn’t able to manage to even win a conditioned allowance last time out, placing in that race for fillies without a win in the past six months. This could be the toughest race of the filly’s life, and she certainly doesn’t look up to the task today. Here’s the word from her trainer (Vyz/Kyogle) on how his 51-1 shot might do: “She has to be one of the most frustrating horses I’ve ever had. When she won the G2 Land’s End in March, I thought we may have a budding superstar, but her form since has been woeful. She’s sort of on a last chance. If she flops again she may get another chance at sprinting, but it’s also possible she may be one of my first broodmares used in 2016.”

My Selections

1-    13    IN THE SYSTEM

2-    7     SUPER GOOD

3-    11     WHAT IS OBEDIENCE

Longshot Play-    3     MISS MO

Views (530)

Oct 232015
 

Talented Field For The G1 Grand Carlos

Argentina (ARG) | Saturday, October 24, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 3yo+ | 12 Furlongs | Firm Turf

    1     EASTERN APPROACH enters in the 9-5 favourite spot. After a crushing win in the Autumn Stakes GIII (with a 116), a third in the King Geoff GI, a win in the Longstickgoboom GII, and third in the Delta Republic GII, he looks like a very good candidate for the win. The four year old colt by NEW APPROACH has those four accomplishments to his name in the graded stakes department, and he looks for his first GI win here. While his running has been spectacular lately, the other stakes winners won’t let him get off easy. 9-5 is about what I’d have given him.

|   2   | AVEC LE VENT, meaning ‘with the wind’, has indeed run with the wind as of late. Most noteworthy is his last performance, showing drastic improvement in the How Do You Spell That STK, going from a career mark figure of 101 to a whopping 113. That’s his only notable win to date, while the three year old did run fourth in the Adelaide Derby GI just a few months ago. Though it’s tougher company than ever, I can see the son of MANDURO getting a major cheque here.

   3    NOCHEINMAL loves opening up a big lead and attempting to hang on. The move has been successful in every listed stakes start to date, but literally none of his graded stakes tries. While he has been G-placed quite a few times, but can never hang on to win. With little early speed however, it could be the colt’s time to shine. He’s 3-1 off a win in a listed stakes. The sire is DALAKHANI.

   4    WILLIAM’S ROAD is a peculiar 8-1 off a quartet of good GI starts, including a one and a half length win in the World Weekly News 2000 GI. He hasn’t hit the board in his past two, running fourth both times, both live performances however, and I really think he can get the job done here, especially if he can bump that SP up a few points from his most recent 101. By GIANT’S CAUSEWAY and out of GI winning he-mare WILLIAM’S STREET, I like the value I’m getting on this sharp runner. A good bet.

   5   CONTRATIEMPO is a grade one winner, but you wouldn’t be able to tell by his past performances. His only GI win was in July of 2013 where he took the French Grand Prix. Recently he’s been racing at the allowance level, where he’s won three of his past seven, all at that level. It’s also worth noting that he was third in the 2013 BB Turf. However, it looks like he may be past his peak and hasn’t done anything noteworthy in 2015, so I’m going to have to lay off the experienced five year old son of SEA THE STARS. 8-1 is an okay price but isn’t a good bet in the race.

   6    UNCOMMONLY is a grade two winner from 2014 and was third in two GIs in succession. He didn’t score his first win in 2015 until two starts back in a NW1s allowance two starts back, among three graded stakes appearances and two stakes starts- including his last. This is another who seems to be not as good as his past self, and so I can’t play him at this GI level. By MONTJEU, the five year old is 6-1.

   7   STAYING ON TRACK has, in his past four races, attempted all four stakes attempts of his career including one GIII. It looks however, that his better races have been on the dirt, with five wins on eleven starts as opposed to two wins on eleven starts on the turf. On his last three, it’s been two stakes wins (both on dust) and one GIII third. I believe he can be a strong runner, but I actually prefer him on the dirt. 6-1 on the five year old by PULPIT.

   8    ALL HAIL THE KING had been an allowance runner for all fourteen of the four year old’s career until his last start in the Roidazoid Turf Route STK, where he only ran a fifth by four. On just three career wins and only one stakes attempt which was off the board, I strongly discourage a bet on the 10-1 shot by RIP VAN WINKLE. Upset is unlikely.

MY SELECTIONS

1-    4    WILLIAM’S ROAD
2-    1     EASTERN APPROACH
    3-    3    NOCHEINMAL

Longshot Play- |  2  | AVEC LE VENT

Views (420)

Oct 022015
 

Top Youngsters Compete For The End Of The Line Futurity G1

Saturday, October 3, 2015 | 3:00 PM | Kentucky (KY)
Grade I | $750,000 | 2-Year-Olds | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

   1   UNO PIMENTO is the son of MACHO UNO, out of EL GRAN GOLDEN, who has produced a grade I winner and two stakes winners (including this colt). After his maiden win on debut, the horse was unable to win as a presser, running up from third in a listed stakes to place. Once adapting a closer’s method in his third start he won his second race- a listed stake. Next out in the Closest Friend G2 he was running eleventh at call two, finishing second at the finish by just a neck. Stepping up half a furlong (and one grade) to the Dell Computer Futurity, in which (if you watch the race) he was hung out three wide the entire trip, and still accelerated late to finish a nice fourth. He switches to a route for the first time, however I think this horse has only good things to come and has the ability to win this one. 9-1 is a nice price.

|  2  | NUREYEV’S GHOST has just four starts, two of which were wins. No stakes wins on two attempts, this son of GHOSTZAPPER was a dominant victor an a Nw2l allowance winning by over three, going wire-to-wire. That last race clearly states that he doesn’t belong in allowance company. But where does he belong? I’d like to see a stakes win before betting him here, and considering his two listed stakes losses, I’ll lay off this time at 7-1.

   3   PREACHER’S CAUSE has amazing breeding, by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, this colt scored a local bred maiden win with a 79 SP in his debut. After a Nw2l place the brown colt was a half length winner (at the same class), and had graded stakes company for the Cryogenics Juvenile G3, where he flew from farther back than ever, nabbing second by a neck to a previous grade II winner. This colt has a bright future but I think the class jump could be a little steep today. You’ll get 8-1 if you disagree.

   4   BROKEN RIDGE is fresh of win number two, where he went gate-to-wire in his fourth start. His only other win was a maiden win, second time out. Despite the outstanding 92 speed rating last time out I can’t assume he has the class yet. The bargain bred son of BROKEN VOW is 24-1 but doesn’t have any stakes experience.

   5   VYRANTIUM comes from a hot race maiden win for his debut, but quickly improved that 64 speed rating with a 78 in a Nw2l allowance. Lenny took his horse to the next step, and he responded, coming from twelfth in the Dynaprospector Dirt Juvenile STK to win by two lengths with an 88. For the Vermont BB Juvenile G2, where he put in a good run, and joined the late cavalry charge to finish sixth by three quarters of a length. Pinning on his G2 badge and scoring the highest speed figure of his career, the MORE THAN READY colt won the Hoserhead Juvenile by more than a length. This colt is impeccably bred- out of stakes winner BREAKNECK, who has produced two stakes winners besides this horse (who is also her first graded stakes winner). Last time out, the colt was a nice third in the Hopeless Stakes G1, losing by three lengths. This looks like a good bet and 6-1 offers great value.

   6   GAMMA RAYZ has hit the board in all seven career starts, including two listed stakes and a grade one. After a debut win, the son of ORB had some trouble notching win number two, running second in an open allowance, second in an Nw2l allowance, second in a listed stake, and finally won an allowance Nw2l three starts ago. With the win in hand, the colt took it to the Almost Whirl Dirt Juvenile STK, and made it look easy, scoring with a career high 94 speed digit. Last time out was his most impressive- which of course in the sim means he’s 10-1. In the Dell Computer Futurity, the colt was displaced from his favoured position, and he ran sixth until the stretch where he poured it on to a bronze medal placing by about three lengths. While at 10-1 he colt could qualify for my longshot play, I doubt that will be necessary. A great bet.

   7   ASHLYDAR has had a two win, five try career so far, and his speed figures weren’t excessively great, until his last start- the Pea Patch Juvenile G3. This colt assumed the closer role, and rolled up from twelfth (ten lengths behind) at the three quarters to place second by a head. The GIANT’S CAUSEWAY colt could be a winner this weekend, and if you see an effective workout, she might be worth your time at 24-1.

   8   DEADMONEY CADET was also a hot race beginner- winning it handily with a high uncharacteristic speed figure for those contest- 78. After easily winning a Nw2l allowance, the MORE THAN READY colt scored in the June Stakes STK, and moved on to G2 company. Taking on The Stanford G2, the colt was locked in a suicidal speed duel which resulted in a tenth place finish for the rookie. Dropping to a G3, the Cadet trainee was caught in the last sixteenth but still showed a career mark 94 SP. The superbly bred colt might have been a good wager in a race with little speed- but his frontrunning style won’t be effective here with so many others doing the same. 9-1 for him.

   9   CALGARY FRONT is a winner of only one. After a win in an ESR maiden race, Balata had him place in a Nw2l allowance. Following, Balata decided to go big or go home, and his decision somewhat paid off with his WAR FRONT colt grabbing third, beaten a length in the High Roller’s Juvenile G2 at six furlongs. Out of ALBERTA GOLD, a mare who has produced two listed stake winners, two G2 winners and one G1 winner while she was a G1 winner herself, this colt looked to join the ranks of this mare’s best as he took on the Hoserhead Juvenile G2. He again was third, and decided it was time for a jockey change for the Dell Computer Futurity G1. It didn’t work out as H Harzheim was unable to get him anywhere close and the horse fell to eleventh at the finish. The one-time winner is 10-1 if you think he can rebound well with a new jock.

  10   GRAVITY ORBIT by ORB, the bay colt is out of outstanding broodmare OUR TATER. While she never won a race on the track, she has produced three listed stakes winners (including this one) and one G2 winner. Also among them are three stakes placed allowance horses. He became another pride of his mother’s last time out with his first stakes win in the Valyrian Edge STK. Previously the colt had three wins (maiden, nw2l, nw3l) on six starts which included a fourth in an earlier listed stakes. He seemed to improve trying the route type last time, and STK to G Stakes winners happen all the time, but this time out I’d like to take an experience graded stakes horse.

  11   EVASIVE MANEUVERS has just four attempts and was previously a turf sprinter. This colt by ELUSIVE QUALITY out of GIANT’S TREASURE- a stakes winning mare who has mothered two stakes winners and three allowance winners on five starters. She’s represented today by a colt fresh off his first allowance victory. Switching to dirt two starts back, the colt was second in a Nw2l allowance and after lengthening to a route last time out, he got a second win. I’m just not sure the horse has the class yet, and he’s 22-1 for Dixiedotco.

  12   AWESOME ONCE MORE is a two time winner by AWESOME AGAIN, with just five races under his belt. The colt’s first race was for the All Stars Racing Res, and after winning that start by a nose, three starts later (both allowances, one win), the rookie was trying the Hoserhead Juvenile G2. Coming from eleventh at the second fraction, the horse flew up to place to none other than VYRANTIUM. Stepping up to the mile distance, the chestnut was a very close third in the Darling-Squash Futurity G3 last time out. Improving every time, the colt has a definite chance. However I’d like to stay with a horse with grade one experience in this field. He’s 9-1.

  13   GROOM TO MEDAL TED is by MEDAGLIA D’ORO, out of grade three winner GROOMED TO ROMP T. The mare has foaled a grade two winner as well as two stakes placed allowance winners. This colt bumps up the SP every time, improving from a 70 debut win to an 87 last time out. With just one win to his name, the colt’s last two races have been very live. In the Midsoil Stakes G2 for his penultimate try, the good-looking grey was fourth- by a neck. That race was promising, and his last race, the Upper New York Special G2 was even more so. The horse challenged for the lead early, but was battled, and the colt still had the heart to hold third by just a neck once more. I love the horse, and he’s only going to get better. Despite his one win, I think he’s worth a bet this time while moving to a route for the first time. Especially at 14-1.

  14   MISSION STREET is tied for the most experienced, with seven races. Taking an unrestricted allowance for his second start. After two stakes tries, including a win, this MISSION IMPAZIBLE colt (out of a mare who has previously mothered a G2 winner) decided to attempt (well, I suppose the owner decided) to move into the graded stakes level, taking on the Faber College Juvenile G3, and was second of fourteen. Two starts back he was second in the Stanford G2 to now G1 winner STORM CAT HUMOR. After that great effort, he took on G1 foes in the Hopeless Stakes. Not too bad for a first time G1 runner, he made a move but was beaten to sixth by five of fourteen. I believe that could’ve been an off day for him, and switching to a route I think he’s got a fair shake at the cash. 10-1 is pretty good.

MY SELECTIONS
1-    6    GAMMA RAYZ
2-    5    VYRANTIUM
3-   13   GROOM TO MEDAL TED

Longshot Play-   14   MISSION STREET

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Aug 282015
 

Good Field In The Pitcher Molly G2

New Jersey (NJ) | Sunday, August 30, 2015 | 2:30 PM EST | Grade II
$375,000 | 3yos & Upwards | Fillies & Mares | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

   1   UNEVENTFUL OIL has only tried one stake race. After a slower maiden win and two failed conditioned allowances (with much higher speeds) she won by three lengths for a Nw2l purse of $29,200. Her stakes try was dismal, losing sixth by over twenty-six lengths, and the rest of her races have been allowances. She won three of those six races, and after a three length win and a 102, Tyedye steps up his hidden entry to race alongside stablemate SPEX APPEAL. This is another of his allowances steppers, and this filly may have improved since her only stakes race, and her speed figures are pretty good, but I can’t warrant a bet. She’s understandably 10-1

|  2  | BITE THE DUST has scored a nice amount of cash in her past ten starts. After a four race 2013 campaign with just her debut win, 2014 was a little more successful. In her fourth race of that year, and her fifth dirt race she finally managed a second win in an Nw2l. Next up was an Nw3l win and a new best 94 SP. She fatigued herself in those two wins, so after a fourth in an Nw4l she broke the 100 mark with a 102 and an Nw4l win. She won five of her next nine (all allowances) and earned about $183,700 in that stretch. This filly will undoubtedly earn over $500,000 in her career but I don’t think it can happen in this race. She has talent and she might be a good bet next time once we’ve seen the extent of her talents. I’ll lay off this time at 5-1.

   3    SUPAH QUALITY was impressive in her first win, scoring with a superb 91 speed rating, following a race purchased by Smokeglack where she finished sixth. Next time out rider Z Smeenge clearly rode her too hard early but the filly still ran second. After Nw2l, Nw3l, and Nw4l wins carrying into her three year old season she continued the streak into a two length win in the Princess Hana Dirt Mare Route STK with a lifetime best 115 speed figure, and wasn’t done there. Now putting in a 109+ speed rating almost every race, the SUPER SAVER filly had a good trip and and won the Cubic Zirconia Path Stakes G3 to win by two. The super filly then won the Steadhemp Handicap G1 convincingly. Unfortunately, her amazing six race win streak was broken when she took on the covenant Go For Gold Stakes G1, finishing third by two strongly. After a dominant win in the Superfilly Handicap G1, she looked like one of the favourites for the BB Distaff. She wasn’t good enough, and the strong field enveloped her where she should have made her move and finished eighth. After a listed stakes win and a BBRS Slave To Tradition Mile G2 place to begin her 2015, she entered the Orange Blossom G1 and she struck the lead at the head of the stretch but finished fourth. Three starts back she had her first turf try, but backed up late on the yielding grass. Back on the dirt she proved to be still youthful, racing hard and nabbing second behind the strong BARDEN BELLA. In her last start, she attempted just the second sprint of her career, but wasn’t a fan and finished fourth. She’s still a great horse, and I think back on a route she’s still a fierce competitor. Good bet at 5-2. Oh, and sorry for this book I’ve written.

   4     EMPIRICAL EMPIRE was extremely impressive in the beginning of her career. After a place in this filly’s debut, she posted three decisive wins in a maiden, Nw2l, Nw3l and Nw4l. It was stakes time for the Pr trainee and she cracked a 101 SP but was caught by a length. The Selena G3 was next, raced well but was again caught by five lengths this time for a show. The EMPIRE MAKER filly got her stakes winner badge after winning the Otto History Dirt Filly Route by three lengths. Again she went wire-to-wire but this time in the First State Oaks G2 scoring a career-best 110 speed rating. Finally it was G1 time but the filly was outclassed and was worn down to eighth by ten. Back down to the G2 level, she stalled in third in the Cotton Handicap but posted a record 111. She ended her 2014 campaign on a low note, falling back to ninth in the Gowander Stakes G2 by nine lengths. She tried a Nw2s allowance for a season debut, but didn’t like the sprint distance and raced second. Three races later she came the closest of 2015. She was only beaten by a neck in the County Spring Dirt Mare Mile and had another 111. Next she tried the good dirt and a G2 and ran a good fourth by less than a length in a sprint. Another good race came in the Bumblebee Classic G2 where she was caught and was a strong second by two. Back to the G1 trail, she was again beaten in the Very Vane, but still was a decent fourth by five. Last time out was the best race of 2015. She went an impressive wire-to-wire against a good field in the Go For Gold G1 and posted a 112 lifetime mark. Now I’m not sure whether she put in one good race or really is her old self, but at odds of 7-2, I’m willing to take a shot that it’s the latter.

   5     SPEX APPEAL is decidedly the least experienced of this field. Bred as a three year old, after a debut win and a 71 speed figure, she had a little trouble notching win number two. She was fourth beaten by fourteen lengths in her first Nw2l allowance run (and 2015 debut), but improved next time, scoring a 99 SP and a two length place on her switch to dirt on the same class. Tyedye tossed her into a Nw3l but she clearly wasn’t ready, making up a little ground by finished fourth by eleven. Finally in a Nw1x she came from fifth at the third call, and won. She then kept winning, with a Nw3x win (where she broke a 100 SP for the first time) and a Nw4l win by more than a length. Two starts back the SPECIAL WEEK-bred filly had what looks like her best win, scoring in an unrestricted allowance by about two lengths. Last time out the filly competed in a residency challenge, the East-West Connection vs the Minnesota Testbarn. The filly played for team EWC, but was a little too far back at the three quarters. She flew up from thirteenth but was a length and a half short, and was second behind ALY SEA ALY DO, losing the challenge to MNTB. As of this race, she has no kind of stakes or graded stakes experience. She’s clearly a good animal, but I can’t bet her without more incentive. She’s 10-1 .

   6   FLEET OF PUMPKINS switched to dirt after a failed debut, and won her maiden, placed in a Nw3l, Nw2l and won an Nw2l which Nnovak decided was enough for a stakes try. She placed after a good move and posted a new best 91 speed figure. After a seventh in a G2 and a Nw3l allowance win, she placed in the Davola Dane South G3 by a length. She then failed in her first G1 attempt, finishing ninth in the Enter The Tent. In her next seven races she had a stakes win stakes place and a third in a G3, among four listed stakes and three graded stakes. In four conditioned allowances, the DANSILI filly won two, placed in one and showed in the other. In her second G1 try she ran well, making a move to finish third to SUPAH QUALITY and BARDEN BELLA in the Steadhemp Handicap G1. She made a small move in the D-Day Distaff but was only good enough to finish sixth. Last time out she again made her same move in the Chubby Visa Stakes G3 but again couldn’t get up. She was left fourth by four which still isn’t horrible, but doesn’t make her a top contender for this race. She has the best chance if she stays a little closer to the pace than normal, and I wouldn’t rule her out because if she finds a spot behind the SUPAH QUALITY/EMPIRICAL EMPIRE speed duel she can win. I’d consider a bet at 5-1.

   7     BRONX EXPRESS is the bargain bred daughter of INDY EXPRESS. She was a $10000 claimer in her debut, with a poor 52 speed rating she won. Next up, she improved greatly in a $17500 starter allowance, and won five of her next six, capping it off with a local bred allowance. Next up was the Ice Cream Gold G3 but the surprisingly good filly couldn’t make up enough ground and landed sixth by five. She then placed in a listed stake and moved back to dirt, followed by two failed graded stakes tries- a G2 and G3 (the best was a show). Next time out, she was a one length winner in another locally bred allowance. After two more graded stakes losses (G2 and G3 again), she finally got a grade two badge, winning the Hunted By Lions by a cool half-length. Her first G1 try was up next, and she still ran nicely, made up ground from second but actually finished third by a half-length. Her last four tries were all decent but unremarkable graded stakes, running fifth in the Unthinkable Stakes G2, an eighth in the Steadhemp/Mike Phipps Handicap G1, a fifth by four in the D-Day Distaff G2, and got the closest of the four race stretch in The Clemente G2. The rider timed his move a little early, but the filly still held fifth by a length and a quarter. I can’t recommend on recent form (or her graded stakes record) but she might be worth a small bet at 5-1.

   8     CHASE THE PUMPKIN failed in her first three tries, her best being a third by four. However, on her switch to dirt she won by just under two lengths with a flashy 81 speed figure. Nnovak skipped the Nw2l level and his horse scored by two lengths in a Nw3l allowance. She was fourth in a listed stakes try but fought right back winning the Plate Exalt Dirt Filly Sprint at seven and a half furlongs. She lost in four graded stakes tries in a row including two G3s, one G2 and one G1. The daughter of CAPE CROSS won yet another listed stake and yet again lost a G2 afterwards. After a show in a G2 in a Bargain Bred Residency race, she was a poor ninth in a G3. She was close to the pace in a listed stakes three starts back but was a good second, and before the First State Distaff G2 she won an allowance tightener. In that First State Distaff she was always beaten and finished last of fourteen. Last time out she couldn’t win a simple allowance, and finished second. Her recent form doesn’t look good and she’s not a good bet at this time. She’s 9-1.

MY SELECTIONS
1-    3     SUPAH QUALITY
2-    4    EMPIRICAL EMPIRE
3-    6    FLEET OF PUMPKINS

Longshot Play-    5    SPEX APPEAL

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Aug 272015
 

The Sim Bracket Challenge

Ireland (IRE) | August 29, 2015 | 12:50 PM EST | Maiden Allowance
$50,600, 2000 & 10000 Credits | 3-Year-Olds | First Time Starters | 8 Furlongs | Firm Turf

This is a contest hosted by the generous Smokeglack, where the faster winner of the two divisions will win 10,000 credits (with the slower winner getting 2,000). Forty Thirty-eight entrants, two divisions, three year old first time starters, 10,000 credits up for grabs, let’s do this!

Division A (the Ace Of Spades Division):

   1a    HENLOPEN CADET is by CAPE CROSS, a capable sire with an 82% winner rate, but 32% currently this year adding DANZIG to his 5x chart. His dam-sire is the good DYNAFORMER, ranked 25 in the DS ratings and used quite possibly the best sire ever, NORTHER DANCER as a DDS. This makes for a strong turf router and this horse has a good chance too. So far, a great competition. This is Cadet’s entry. He’s 13-1.

|  2a  |CHAPARRAL HANOVER is my own entrant, and the first time I’m writing about one of my own horses. I used a S/DS combo that worked for me recently, and am hoping it will work again. I started with HIGH CHAPARRAL, a sire which has done well twice for me so far, and has a 81% winners rate adding SADLER’S WELLS and KRIS to this colt’s lineage. His dam-sire is RAHY, who is capable and good with turf routers, and I’m hoping he can help me out again, also giving a BLUSHING GROOM bloodline. I used DANSILI for a DDS who is another great turf sire and I think he can help out this breeding, also adding DANEHILL and DANZIG. I know this one isn’t stellar, but he has a good chance. He’s 22-1.

   3a     C’MERE STAY is by STAY GOLD, who shows a 70% winners from starters rate all-time but a much lower 38% this year. He’s a turf router by SUNDAY SILENCE. The dam-sire is EL PRADO, who is scoring well as a DS- his winners-runners percentage is 81%, and is by SADLER’S WELLS. Finally the DDS of this filly is MILL REEF, a stallion we’ll see a lot as a DDS in this contest. This filly is Beisbol’s entrant and is 19-1.

   4a    DINO ZOFFY is of an interesting breed. By ZOFFANY who is currently only 100 credits and a 27% yearly win rate but has DANSILI, MACHIAVELLIAN and MR. PROSPECTOR with the DS of THEATRICAL almost at 1000c who adds NUREYEV and NORTHERN DANCER. KRIS is the DDS who is also at 100c for the DDS usage. This colt doesn’t look like a chalk but definitely has potential and very few nicks. This is
Kimugle’s entry and is the longest shot of 60-1.

   5a    GIGGLING GAL has an interesting mix of EXCELEBRATION, LYPHARD (DS) and DUBAWI (DDS). EXCELEBRATION has to offer a decent 46% winner rating this year as a third year sire. As a DS LYPHARD has an 80% winners from runners percentage but also adds NORTHERN DANCER in the third column. Finally DUBAWI is the eighth ranked 2015 sire and should help in adding a little spice to the breeding. This is Handshobby’s bid and looks okay. This filly is 16-1.

   6a    EVERYDAY EDDIE is no everyday horse. His sire is GALILEO, who has been fantastic up until now. He is having a slow start in 2015 at a 35% winner percentage, but does add a few great stallions in SADLER’S WELLS, NORTHERN DANCER and MR. PROSPECTOR. The dam-sire slot gives him a Rasmussen Factor in SPECIAL (4Sx5D) (correct me if I’m wrong) and that DS is KINGMAMBO. An 89% winner rate as a dam-sire and again adds more great horses (along with several nicks) including RAISE A NATIVE and NUREYEV (not including the nicked sires). As a DDS Russrob has chosen DANEHILL, which strengthens the turf breeding and looks good on paper, as well as adding DANZIG to the lineage. He’s 9-1.

   7a    MEZTLI VABEE is by SAVABEEL who has a 41% rate this year- not the best of all entrants but still okay. More importantly his bloodline includes ZABEEL, who was a fantastic Sim sire in his day. In the dam-sire category this filly gets LYPHARD, a good DS with an 80% winner from starter rating, and also gives him a closer NORTHERN DANCER relation. Finally, MILL REEF completes this filly, who was a good horse and is another turf router. This one could be a surprise if he wins at 14-1 for Daniel.

   8a    DUBAI ODDYSEY is another colt by HIGH CHAPARRAL. He adds a few good bloodlines and his starters win at a 81% clip all-time. As a dam-sire Gcliffo adds DUBAI MILLENIUM, adding a little more turf and distance, also offering SEEKING THE GOLD and a 79% progeny winning rate as a DS. IRISH RIVER is the dam-dam-sire who is still a nice horse and again adds more grass potential. Another good entry, he’s 23-1.

   9a    OUR WAY OR DUBAWI is quite obviously by DUBAWI, a great sire who is ranked eighth this year despite his 46% winners rate. For a dam-sire, Steve555 uses DANEHILL, a very good horse with a good percentage, and adds several good horses to the blood including DANZIG and BUCKPASSER. A great completion to the breeding is KINGMAMBO, who needs no introduction. This horse is looking good, and he’s 9-1.

   10a    ORFEVRERIE is by ORFEVRE, a second-year sire who has 23 winners from 62 runners this year (37%) and is only 117 credits at the moment but does give SUNDAY SILENCE to his roots. As a dam-sire Elenalag chooses the strong DUBAI MILLENNIUM, who a 79% winner rate as a dam-sire, and adds NORTHERN DANCER. MR. PROSPECTOR and SEEKING THE GOLD to his colt’s DNA. For a DDS he uses CAERLEON, giving a little more turf route ability, and has NIJINSKY 2ND as his sire. A strong competitor and is 18-1.

  11a   LUCKY KASH is the second GALILEO entrant of this contest. His breeding looks great on paper, and if GALILEO can hold up to his past glories than this is yet another youngster with a shot at the prize. That sire also adds SADLER’S WELLS and MISWAKI His dam-sire, A.P. INDY is one of the best in Sim (and reality for that matter) history. His 89% winners-starters rating is superb but this stallion does have a better likeness to dirt. A. P. INDY also adds SEATTLE SLEW and SECRETARIAT to the pot. As a DDS Kashbarn chose ROBERTO, who was one of the most popular sires in his time. He was extremely successful and even contains the also popular HAIL TO REASON. This colt looks great as well at odds of 9-1.

  12a   TRUST THE PROCESS is definitely one of the favourites in this contest. By the leading 2015 sire GIANT’S CAUSEWAY who gives STORM CAT, RAHY, BLUSHIG GROOM and the great mare MARIAH’S STORM. He uses the sixth rank dam-sire SADLER’S WELLS who adds NORTHERN DANCER and BOLD REASON to his lineage, and using the capable MILL REEF as a dam-dam-sire, he gives Psyduck a great chance to recoup the cost of this horse and possibly more. Foaled in Kentucky he’s a ridiculous 10-1.

  13a   STREETSCAPE is a good entry and actually has a 5Sx4D Rasmussen Factor with NATALMA I believe. By STREET CRY, the top ranked sire of 2014 with an overall 92% winners from starters percentage, this horse actually seems to be more suited for dirt, as we look at the dam-sire of DANZIG who was himself a dirt horse, but still a great horse and still makes this a fantastic filly. Lastly her DDS is SADLER’S WELLS, a great turf horse, but I still think this one would have a natural aptitude for dirt running. If Tenpoint’s turf training has paid off, this one could be dangerous and is 9-1.

  14a   THE AXE FELL has one of the deadliest S/DS combos in the Sim currently. Another favourite by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY with top dam-sire KINGMAMBO (adding MR. PROSPECTOR, great mare MIESQUE, and NUREYEV), and has the talented dam-dam sire DANZIG adding the third NORTHERN DANCER nick. This colt certainly cost a small fortune and gives Masterm a great shot at 10000 credits which may not even cover the cost of this horse. Nevertheless this is another fierce competitor and a favourite at 9-1.

  15a    I MUST BE LONELY is by one of the most popular sires in the challenge HIGH CHAPARRAL, whose horses are winners 81% of the time. The DS is ZABEEL and around three quarters of his fillies’ foals are winners. He’s got the NUREYEV bloodline and is a good turf horse. The DDS is DANEHILL, a very good horse and sire, who helps out any breeding. The filly is 15-1 and is Liam’s bid for the prize.

  16a   GENETICALLY GIFTED is Summerset’s entry, and is name is true to an extent. By LEMON DROP KID, a sire with a 40% winners rate this year, he injects all sorts of great sires into this filly’s ancestry including KINGMAMBO, SEATTLE SLEW and BOLD REASONING, among others. Her dam-sire of DANEHILL (which is still a great horse and sire on his own) adds even more great stallions such as DANZIG and NORTHERN DANCER. Finally her DDS of DYNAFORMER gives her more talent and liking to grass. This one’s sire isn’t the best of the bunch but if he works out, this is yet another good horse. She’s 11-1.

  17a   JULIE VENDREDI represents one of the nine fillies in the race (half and half, actually), and has another good breeding. By DANEHILL DANCER who has a good 78% winner percentage this year, and is a great sire all around. In the dam-sire slot we have MISWAKI, the 33rd ranked DS, but is more than capable and adds MR. PROSPECTOR and BUCKPASSER. Another good turf router and has an 82% winning rate as a DS, he strengths this mix. Newmarket uses BLUSHING GROOM to complete his breeding who was a great horse, and who compliments this horse even more. His odds are 13-1 and, he’s certainly up there with the rest.

  18a   THAT’S CHOICE AS is fueled by popular stallion REDOUTE’S CHOICE who has a 43% winners from starters percentage this year as I’m writing this, which isn’t too bad. He also puts DANEHILL and NIJINSKY 2ND into the bloodline. As a DS, Rharfo chooses the top ranked sire in Sim history- MONSUN. His 75% foal winning rate (DS) is nothing to sneeze at and is another good turf router. He adds very popular German sire KONIGSSTUHL and is a great horse. As a DDS we have MINESHAFT, a great all-around horse and horse of the year 2003. He also adds A. P. INDY and MR. PROSPECTOR into the bloodstream. This is another horse with a great chance at 13-1.

Two entries were not fulfilled.

To be honest, you can probably just roll an 18-sided die and come up with the winner, by here are my Division A selections.
MY SELECTIONS:
1-   14a   THE AXE FELL
2-   12a   TRUST THE PROCESS
3-   13a   STREETSCAPE

Division B (Ace Of Diamonds Division):

   1b    HICKORY HOLLOW is by top sophomore sire DAWN APPROACH who has an average 51% W/S (I’ll abbreviate winners from starters percentage like this from now on) rate in 2015. CAERLEON is a good turf sire and has a good 80% W/S percentage as a dam’s sire and has the NIJINSKY 2ND pedigree in his veins. The dam-dam-sire is the GOAT, SECRETARIAT, and he was a good broodmare sire, so the hypothetical dam’s dam should be hypothetically good. This one has a fairly risky breeding, but it’ll pay dividends if it works. This one races for Lenny and is 13-1.

|  2b  | THE GOLDEN ROAD looks good with second ranked sire OASIS DREAM as the father, with a 2015 winners percentage of 61%. This one should have some speed as his sire favoured the sprint distance. Again we see SEEKING THE GOLD as the dam-sire, who again adds a good percentage on winners from runners. He adds some distance to the colt, while the DDS STORM CAT adds even more speed to the breeding. Looks like a strong colt, if the animal has the stamina for Pointblank.

   3b    FOR DA SMOKE is racing for Desertdog and is sired by DEHERE, a solid sire with solid stats including a 65% winners from starters percentage so far, and has DEPUTY MINISTER as her sire. The dam-sire of this filly is ZABEEL, who was very good in his day, and still does fairly well as a DS. Finally, the DDS is FASTNET ROCK, a sire who has been good recently. She’s got a dirt-favouring sire, but her breeding is good if this filly turns out to like the grass.

   4b    HIGHONMAMBOSREEF is not only a spectacular name, he also looks like a fierce competitor. By good three-year-old sire HIGH CHAPARRAL, with an 81% W/S rate he’s backed up with legendary stud KINGMAMBO for dam-sire services, with an 89% W/S as a dam-sire. The strong MILL REEF is the DDS and helps this breeding. Not only do I feel sorry for the announcer, I think this one could take down the field. It’s Bbt’s entry and he’s 12-1.

   5b    GILA MONSTER is Roys’ entrant. This colt is ironically bred by his Bird stable and is sired by RAVEN’S PASS. He’s a moderately young stallion with an overall 83% winners from starters rate. Another turf router, he hasn’t been brilliant this year so far, but he’s got ELUSIVE QUALITY as his sire. For the dam-sire Roys chose DANEHILL DANCER who has a 79% on winners from starters which is quality. For the dam-dam-sire is AWESOME AGAIN, an aging but still prominent sire, and despite his dirt roots, I think his talent should help this colt. His sire isn’t the absolute best, but this entry has definite potential. He’s 17-1.

   6b    WEST SIDE KID is the contest owner’s own bid. While he said that he won’t be taking the credits if he wins, let’s review his horse. By STREET CRY, the best sire of 2014, he’s still available for three year old breeding after his passing in September last year. He’s a very strong sire and adds the MACHIAVELLIAN bloodline. In adding NUREYEV as the dam-sire, Smoke added a Rasmussen Factor (4Dx5S) of NATALMA. NUREYEV also obviously adds NORTHERN DANCER into the blood. The dam-dam-sire is super-sire GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, who is a good turf runner and adds STORM CAT, MARIAH’S STORM, and RAHY. This is an overall excellent breeding, and Smoke might possibly win his own challenge. This entrant is 8-1.

   7b    OUTBACK OPALTON is by super-sire SEA THE STARS, ranked third in the active sires list. That alone makes him one of the top entries, and made even better by the dam-sire SADLER’S WELLS, a great turf horse and amazing sire with an 85% W/S percentage. For a DDS, BROAD BRUSH was used, a top sire in his career and had a fantastic racing career. This should be another favourite and he’s 8-1 for Tulloch.

   8b    PETE’S CILLA is another by HIGH CHAPARRAL, who has an 81% W/S rating on average, and produces some nice grass racers. For the DS you’ll find IRISH RIVER, whose W/S rate is 75%, better than as a sire, and is another good distance turf horse. Finally for the DDS is MAJESTIC LIGHT, but simply looks to strengthen the turf aspect of the colt. This equine should be good on the lawn, and his breeding looks pretty good. Pekay’s bid is 27-1.

    9b    CALVES PEN is Given’s entry, and he selects as his sire DANSILI. This sire has had a 90%+ winners percentage since at least 2011, but currently has 55% this year. He’s still very good at producing turf runners and with the addition of SADLER’S WELLS this colt should be even more potent. Finally as a DDS we have KRIS S. who is very capable and strengthens this breeding. He’s 8-1 and looks like one of the top contenders.

  10b   ESPRIT WELLS is another pretty interesting one. By BEL ESPRIT, sire of the spectacular BLACK CAVIAR, a mainly mixed sire but generally favours turf routers in the Sim and has a 73 W/S rate overall, but only a 29% this year. Followed up with amazing grass sire SADLER’S WELLS, this could make for a deadly combo and with the good addition of HABITAT (the 43rd ranked DS), this one looks like feast or famine.He’s 15-1 and is the entry for Quilly.

  11b   DARK NUMEROUS is a filly with a curious pedigree, starting with GOLD ALLURE as the sire, with a less than stellar 42% W/S digit. He’s got some speed, and is backed up with distance from KAYF TARA in the DS spot, with a 62% W/S percent, and does have a SADLER’S WELLS bloodline in him. The DDS is NUMEROUS, adding a little more speed and the good MR. PROSPECTOR bloodline. I’m not sure about this filly, but she has a few good bloodlines and this breeding could pay off. Lightng99 owns this filly at 56-1.

  12b    UNREDOUTABLE is obviously by REDOUTE’S CHOICE, a popular sire with an 84% winners from starters percentage while he does have a smaller 44% rating this year. Jacklad uses the great SEEKING THE GOLD, who has an 89% winning progeny rate and is good for distance. With the addition of NIJINSKY 2ND, a Rasmussen factor of 5Sx5D has been created with NATALMA, however it also creates many more nicks. This horse looks like yet another worthy contender, and he’s 8-1.

   13b   ROCKY RAINBOW is by FASTNET ROCK, where his starters are winning at a 44% clip this season, with most of them being turf sprinters. He’s by DANEHILL, a fantastic stud, and is complimented by RAINBOW QUEST, a distance turf runner, and has a W/S percent of 78% and makes quite a few turf route runners as well. ROBELLINO (by ROBERTO) who produced mostly turf routers until 2005 when he was pensioned, and I think helps this breeding a little. Another good one, this is Dhret’s runner.

   14b   TURF TORNADO is looking like one of the top competitors. By very prominent sire SEA THE STARS, this horse has high expectations off the bat, and the name alone should be enough information. The dam-sire only heightens expectations- MONSUN. The great German horse mixes the excellent sire KONIGSSTUHL with MISWAKI and CAPE CROSS. A very potent mix, finished with the strong THEATRICAL, he was a great horse and adds NUREYEV. A definite favourite at 13-1 for Padrebri.

  15b   HI IQ is by third year sire IQBAAL. He’s got four winners from twelve starters this year and a 60% winners from starters percentage all-time. His sire is MEDAGLIA D’ORO and has STORM CAT in him too. Lindsypark uses DANEHILL DANCER for the DS, who is more than capable, and also gives this filly a bit of the DANEHILL bloodline. Finally, the DDS is OASIS DREAM, the second ranked sire of 2015. This adds a little speed and also some DANZIG and MILL REEF. This isn’t one of the best this contest has to offer, but he still has a shot. I’m interested to see what she can do and she’s 27-1.

  16b   RHYTHMICALLY is by TEOFILO, who winners from starters rate is a good 82%, and Canyongate hopes he can get one first time out. TEOFILO only has 31% this year but has GALILEO, DANEHILL and the dam FAIRY BRIDGE. For a DS we have DANEHILL DANCER, and I similarly covered him for GILA MONSTER, and I don’t wish to be more repetitive as I am being already. A great way to cap off a breeding, we have KINGMAMBO, a legendary sire in sim history and strengthens any breeding in any position. This could be a good one but it’s up to how TEOFILO did- the rest is great. This filly is 10-1.

  17b   GETTING IN DEEP as you may have guessed by the name was sired by DEEP IMPACT, a reputable stallion with the SUNDAY SILENCE bloodline and an overall 88% S/W percentage with a 44% this year. The dam-sire is MACHIAVELLIAN, a good sire and good turf runner, and boasts an 81% W/S rate as a dam-sire. Finally the DDS is the great NORTHERN DANCER, who needs no introduction and caps off a turf horse nicely. This colt tries to get Desperado the cash, and looks okay at 12-1.

  18b   DESTINATION FIRST is Crandy’s entrant, and is by CAPE CROSS, an elderly but still capable sire. He only has 32% winners this year, but he could certainly have produced a good foal here. The dam-sire is DUBAI DESTINATION who sports an above averge 65% winners from starters rate as a dam-sire, and I think he compliments this breeding. He also adds KINGMAMBO and his bloodline. Lastly, the dam’s dam-sire is NUREYEV, who does create a 3Dx5D nick of himself and 4Sx4D nick of NORTHERN DANCER. Nevertheless he is a great racehorse and I think does good for this colt. This is another good one and can be the winner at a huge 33-1.

(Two entries not entered).

Again, you can probably just throw an 18-sided die, but here they are-
MY SELECTIONS:
1-    7b    OUTBACK OPALTON
2-   14b   TURF TORNADO
3-    6b   WEST SIDE KID

MY CONTEST SELECTIONS

Top Prize- THE AXE FELL
Second Prize- OUTBACK OPALTON

I probably made a few mistakes and feel free to correct them, but please forgive me as I had to start writing on Tuesday to make sure I got this done. And yes I’m aware this isn’t how the 1/1a-2/2b-3/3c system works but I thought it was a good idea. Good luck all.

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Aug 262015
 

Some Top Two-Year-Olds Contest The Blue Diamond Road G1

Victoria-AUS (VIC) | Sunday, August 30, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $750,000 | Two-Year-Olds | 6 Furlongs | Firm Turf

   1    DEEP SOUTH improved drastically in his last. He was a one length winner in his first race, with a 75 SP, and continued to a half length victory in a local bred NW2l allowance, with another 75. ‘It’s stakes time!’ thought trainer Mtk, but his colt wasn’t ready, finishing eighth by five, with another 75 speed figure. His last race was his best, and raced hard but was simply beat by two. He showed great improvement, as previously stated. Whether or not it was actual improvement or the CHOISIR colt reacted very positively to the yielding turf is up to the handicapper, but if you think it’s the former, he might be worth a bet at 6-1.

|  2  | LIVING CONDITIONS has two wins in his career so far. His 69 speed figure debut wasn’t ground-shaking, but a win is a win, and fellow writer Spin entered him to the I Just Love Racing STK. His MASTERCRAFTSMAN home-bred showed a little improvement in the speed figure category, with a 73 and a third place finish. Spin gave him another try in a listed stake, and his horse kept form with a fourth place effort, beaten a length and a half in the Starke Hulk Turf Juvenile. Next up was the Norfellow Stakes G2 where he raced a little closer to the pace, but still finished up fourth by a length and a half, posting the best speed figure of his life. He wanted to see a win, and so the colt was placed on the sloppy dirt where he won by a length in an NW2l allowance. He stayed closer to the pace that time, and if he was helped by the dirt or not, we’ll have to watch. I think he’s got a better shot if he hangs around fourth or third early, but he needs to pump out the best race of his career on Sunday to win. His odds are 9-1 and might be worth a bet.

   3    DARK ENCOSTA debuted in an allowance hot race, and won by a length with only a 60 SP on the dirt. However, Deeprock put him in a lower allowance, and the MORE THAN READY colt handled it well, winning by a length with a much improved 75 speed figure, still on the dust. Deeprock pushed him up once more, but it seems an allowance is as far as the colt’s dirt abilities go. He made a small move in the Sugar Burden Dirt Juvenile but only came up with a fifth. His real potential was unlocked with his switch to grass and this colt went wire-to-wire to win the Smooth Top Turf Juvenile. Similarly to RED’S RAVEN, the colt went to a G2 next. Unfortunately, it was slightly less successful than RED’S RAVEN, with a nice move but a silver medal; he was short by a length. Still looks like a good bet at 5-1, and sitting 22nd at the 2yo open turf Eclipse category.

   4    NOX WOLF is an allowance stepper. He broke his maiden on July third, on the good dirt with a 74 speed figure. That number took a drop in his latest, falling to a 69 in his allowance Nw2l attempt, where he was fifth by six. I think this son of CURLIN should win an allowance before trying a graded stakes, but I suppose switching to turf could help him. No bet at the massive underlay of 13-1 for Graywolf.

   5   BLAMEITONDAHBOOGIE has an amazing name. This colt was fairly unimpressive in his first try, he had only a 62 in a hot race, and was third by a length. Next time out Corza sent him to the lead, and the colt put in a slightly better speed figure of 64, but finished sixth by five. Two starts back he gave the dirt a try, and showed significant improvement, finishing second by a length and a half. Last time out, this DANCE IN THE DARK colt finally scratched that itch. He went wire-to-wire and gave a 75 speed figure. He looks like the likeliest early speed, but I still think he’ll get beat. Another one taking an ability test, so I won’t bet at 17-1.

   6     CHARNWOOD DEPUTY is a first time starter by HAWK WING (son of WOODMAN), whose winners from starters rate is actually an above average 66%. His dam-sire is CHARNWOOD FOREST and the DDS is SILVER DEPUTY. I can’t bet a first time starter in a G1 especially one whose breeding isn’t stellar. Another entry from Graywolf, he’s 65-1.

   7   IN THE EXCEL is another first time starter for Graywolf, he’s by rookie sire BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE, who has ten winners from nine starters so far, but because of the dam-sire EXCEED AND EXCEL, Graywolf has created a 2Sx2D nick of that horse. This horse has been inbred very closely, and I’m afraid for it’s safety, to be honest. It’s breeding in terms of sire quality isn’t bad, but his nicking makes him a bad bet. He’s 22-1.

   8   AN ODD CHOICE is fresh off his maiden win this week. That win came just ten days ago, which could be a concern for the horse. He won by a length and a half and had a 77 speed rating. These aren’t the most delicate of two-year-olds, but take caution on that rest. This is Spin’s hidden entry, and on a month’s rest or more I might be liking him. This is a test of his ability, and for that reason (along with the rest), I won’t recommend the son of EXCEED AND EXCEL, especially at odds of only 5-1 .

   9   DETEHILL shouldn’t be in this race. She was third in a non-maiden $30000 claimer first time out, with a lowly 46 SP. Down to a $6250 claimer, he was second by a length with a 48. The CETEWAYO colt stepped up to a maiden allowance and was eleventh by eleven lengths. He showed in maiden claimers $25000 and $35000 consecutively. Last time out he was fourth by two in a maiden claimer $7500 and finished with a 52 speed rating. He’s switching to turf but he really can’t win this one. This is one of four entries for Graywolf. He’s understandably 102-1.

   10     RED’S RAVEN is currently sitting sixth in the two year old turf Eclipse Award standings, and has a chance to jump one, two or even three places with a win here. The talented two year old colt is a perfect four for four in his career, with a two length win in his debut at six furlongs. His next race was a locally bred NW2l allowance. He handled that with decent ease, and a pocket trip allowed him a one length win with a 76, again at six furlongs. Jockeymax gave him a stakes try next, and he drew away on cue, winning by two lengths, cracking the 80 rating with an 82 in the Prados Big Fan Juvenile Stakes. This son of RAVEN’S PASS wasn’t done yet, as he made basically the same move in the July Stakes G2, and won basically the same way. A length and a quarter win with an 88 gave him his G2 badge, and he looks good here. This one could even be a BB Juvenile Turf contender. I love this horse, and he’s going on my watch list. A great bet at 7-2.

   11     EHECATL DROP won his maiden debut last time out. He’s only had one start today and Jaka wanted to see what his LEMON DROP KID home-bred could possibly do. He got a perfect trip and won his maiden $45,000 with a 67 speed figure. His last race speed figure was fairly low, and he’s not worth a bet at 7-1.

   12     DEVIANT YOU had been pretty impressive in four career starts until his previous race. He made it look easy in his debut, going wire-to-wire at 4-1 and scored a 79 speed rating. His NW2l try was a similar breeze, again going pole-to-pole with a 74 SP, an even better indicator he was under wraps. An early speed duel in the Triple P G3 left him too tired to hold off the closers, he still finished a strong third there and finally hitting an 80 speed figure. It looks like last time out this SIYOUNI colt was simply bested. He never touched the lead and backed up in crunch time. I’m hoping this colt can get back on track, but as a bettor I won’t recommend him. Winsalot gets him a decent 9-2

MY SELECTIONS

1-   10   RED’S RAVEN
2-   3   DARK ENCOSTA
3- |  2  | LIVING CONDITIONS

Longshot Play-    5    BLAMEITONDAHBOOGIE

Views (755)

Aug 212015
 

An Exciting 2015 Edition of the Longdale Cup

Surrey-ENG (SUR) | Saturday, August 22, 2015 | 2:10 PM EST
Grade II | $375000 | 16 Furlongs | Firm Turf | Three Year Olds and Upwards

   1    BELLO GALLICO has been very inconsistent in his career. After three lackluster races in the beginning, he finally won in a maiden claimer (60k). He then won a few more claimers, bringing the price up each time along with the condition. After shining in three allowances in a row, the roan DALAKHANI horse raced hard for third in the G1 Japanese Saint Legend. His next win came after assorted stakes and graded stakes in an allowance nw5l tightener. He then made a spectacular move in the Ebro Turf Stayer Stakes. He’s run into a dry-spell since, with the best being a third in last year’s Kergolay G2. He was a non-factor in the Japan Classic G1 and was fifth in a listed stake, followed by a place in a nw1n allowance. His last race was the Ebro Turf Stayer, the race in which he got his only stakes win, last year. In this year’s edition he was fourth by five lengths. The crowd overbet him to 5-2 but his form appears to be declining. I can see a third place finish, at best. He needs a good workout for Megablaze.

2  | F. ROBERT KIRBY is like a license to print money. He’s won eleven out of his last twelve races, all allowances of $30000-$67500, not only on turf, but dirt as well. There was a long road to his maiden win, after eight races he finally broke it, with a 78 speed figure. Ever since, he hasn’t finished out of the top two. Despite his seasoned career, the four year old son of RAVEN’S PASS never ran in a stakes race. After a five length win, Desertrats finally gave him the green light, and he took the exit to G1 street. This field isn’t the strongest (or largest) I’ve ever seen, and I can see him placing in this one. Taking it to DARK MANDU is another thing, but this horse is loaded with talent, and I’d consider him for your pick four.

    3    TETE ORVAR had a great record of allowance wins, and was in the same state of F. ROBERT KIRBY until his G1 debut in the Longchamp Marathon. He failed hard, finishing seventh by nineteen lengths. He then raced in six listed stakes in a row, and his best placing was a fourth, by over sixteen lengths. His most recent try was the Lock Edison Turf Stayer. The HIGH CHAPARRAL colt made a small move but only managed sixth, by sixteen lengths. His most recent speed figure was a ninety, which isn’t good enough for this company. This Sabbath7 horse just isn’t of the G1 caliber, I’m sorry to say, and looks like a non-factor. He’s 9-1 but I won’t play.

   4    DARK MANDU is the obvious favourite of this race. He started off his career with a fourteen length win and a 51 speed rating at the 10.5 furlong distance. The sim (if I may break the fourth wall for a moment), made him 25-1 because of the speed figure, and the MOUNTAIN HIGH colt got stepping, and won by seven with a 95 speed figure at sixteen furlongs. Amazingly, Wyndaway put him in the Equinics (best horse I ever owned) G1 and was 179-1! Again, he shocked and placed to I BEN SCAMMED. The Stayer’s Dash G2 was his next, and he ran against 68-1 to place once more. As the bookies continued to insult, the horse that could kept doing well. He was 45-1 in the Spring Cup G1, and got it done, winning by a neck. Next he faced the Gold Glass G1, and finished third among tough company. He was too good for the Kergolay G2 and the Irish Saint Legend G2, winning both by sizable margins. Fast-forward three starts in three unsuccessful G1s, and we get the Spring Cup. There he received the lowest odds of his career- 6-1 -and won by a head. He put in a great effort in the Gold Glass 2015 most recently, and was third by over two. This is a great horse, and doesn’t appear to be declining in any way. 2-1 is a gift, and is worth a huge bet. A possible pick four single, despite my earlier statement.

   5     CAPE ASSASSIN is the best challenger to DARK MANDU. He was claimed for $35000 from the now-regretful Lgbost in an early race. On his eleventh start, he broke his maiden at fourteen furlongs with a sigh of relief from new owner Fredstable. He picked up steam from there, winning four of six allowances in a row before The Barberville G3. He stepped again, to the Second Henry G2, and took it in stride, winning by a length once more. After a place in the Gold Glass G1, he had a long drought, with his best finish in that five race stretch was a third in the Barberville G3 2015. Not to worry, his most recent showing proved he’s back on track. The Greatwood Cup was a four length success. I’m not entirely confident, as that could have been a singular moment of greatness, but it still looks good on form. He looks okay, but at 7-2, the son of CAPE BLANCO doesn’t offer much value.

  6   COWRA IRISH took quite a few thirds and fourths to break his maiden (five total), and won with a big 92 on the sixth try. His nw2l was a success, and was fourth in a listed stake to follow. He won his nw3l and then a listed stake. After a fourth in the World Weekly News 2000 G3 and a place in the Gordy Stakes G3, he finally nabbed a graded stakes- the Prix De Loot G3 by four lengths. He may have been injured in the Millwood Cup- he was thirty one lengths back and took two and a half months off before his 2015 debut. He was fourth followed by a second in two listed stakes, and he weakened in the Stayer’s Dash G2. He stepped down to the Barberville G3 and won that by two lengths, keeping on the  pace throughout. In his penultimate try, he failed, finishing fifth in the Second Henry G2 by twelve lengths after a very mild charge. Most recently, he made a minimal move, to finish fifth by sixteen in the Ale N Skittles Turf Stayer STK. Another I can’t bet due to recent form, and 9-2 isn’t enough for the son of DUKE OF MARMALADE.

My Selections

1-   4   DARK MANDU
2-   5   CAPE ASSASSIN
3- | 2 | F. ROBERT KIRBY

Longshot Play-   3  TETE ORVAR

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