Aug 262015
 

Some Top Two-Year-Olds Contest The Blue Diamond Road G1

Victoria-AUS (VIC) | Sunday, August 30, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $750,000 | Two-Year-Olds | 6 Furlongs | Firm Turf

   1    DEEP SOUTH improved drastically in his last. He was a one length winner in his first race, with a 75 SP, and continued to a half length victory in a local bred NW2l allowance, with another 75. ‘It’s stakes time!’ thought trainer Mtk, but his colt wasn’t ready, finishing eighth by five, with another 75 speed figure. His last race was his best, and raced hard but was simply beat by two. He showed great improvement, as previously stated. Whether or not it was actual improvement or the CHOISIR colt reacted very positively to the yielding turf is up to the handicapper, but if you think it’s the former, he might be worth a bet at 6-1.

|  2  | LIVING CONDITIONS has two wins in his career so far. His 69 speed figure debut wasn’t ground-shaking, but a win is a win, and fellow writer Spin entered him to the I Just Love Racing STK. His MASTERCRAFTSMAN home-bred showed a little improvement in the speed figure category, with a 73 and a third place finish. Spin gave him another try in a listed stake, and his horse kept form with a fourth place effort, beaten a length and a half in the Starke Hulk Turf Juvenile. Next up was the Norfellow Stakes G2 where he raced a little closer to the pace, but still finished up fourth by a length and a half, posting the best speed figure of his life. He wanted to see a win, and so the colt was placed on the sloppy dirt where he won by a length in an NW2l allowance. He stayed closer to the pace that time, and if he was helped by the dirt or not, we’ll have to watch. I think he’s got a better shot if he hangs around fourth or third early, but he needs to pump out the best race of his career on Sunday to win. His odds are 9-1 and might be worth a bet.

   3    DARK ENCOSTA debuted in an allowance hot race, and won by a length with only a 60 SP on the dirt. However, Deeprock put him in a lower allowance, and the MORE THAN READY colt handled it well, winning by a length with a much improved 75 speed figure, still on the dust. Deeprock pushed him up once more, but it seems an allowance is as far as the colt’s dirt abilities go. He made a small move in the Sugar Burden Dirt Juvenile but only came up with a fifth. His real potential was unlocked with his switch to grass and this colt went wire-to-wire to win the Smooth Top Turf Juvenile. Similarly to RED’S RAVEN, the colt went to a G2 next. Unfortunately, it was slightly less successful than RED’S RAVEN, with a nice move but a silver medal; he was short by a length. Still looks like a good bet at 5-1, and sitting 22nd at the 2yo open turf Eclipse category.

   4    NOX WOLF is an allowance stepper. He broke his maiden on July third, on the good dirt with a 74 speed figure. That number took a drop in his latest, falling to a 69 in his allowance Nw2l attempt, where he was fifth by six. I think this son of CURLIN should win an allowance before trying a graded stakes, but I suppose switching to turf could help him. No bet at the massive underlay of 13-1 for Graywolf.

   5   BLAMEITONDAHBOOGIE has an amazing name. This colt was fairly unimpressive in his first try, he had only a 62 in a hot race, and was third by a length. Next time out Corza sent him to the lead, and the colt put in a slightly better speed figure of 64, but finished sixth by five. Two starts back he gave the dirt a try, and showed significant improvement, finishing second by a length and a half. Last time out, this DANCE IN THE DARK colt finally scratched that itch. He went wire-to-wire and gave a 75 speed figure. He looks like the likeliest early speed, but I still think he’ll get beat. Another one taking an ability test, so I won’t bet at 17-1.

   6     CHARNWOOD DEPUTY is a first time starter by HAWK WING (son of WOODMAN), whose winners from starters rate is actually an above average 66%. His dam-sire is CHARNWOOD FOREST and the DDS is SILVER DEPUTY. I can’t bet a first time starter in a G1 especially one whose breeding isn’t stellar. Another entry from Graywolf, he’s 65-1.

   7   IN THE EXCEL is another first time starter for Graywolf, he’s by rookie sire BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE, who has ten winners from nine starters so far, but because of the dam-sire EXCEED AND EXCEL, Graywolf has created a 2Sx2D nick of that horse. This horse has been inbred very closely, and I’m afraid for it’s safety, to be honest. It’s breeding in terms of sire quality isn’t bad, but his nicking makes him a bad bet. He’s 22-1.

   8   AN ODD CHOICE is fresh off his maiden win this week. That win came just ten days ago, which could be a concern for the horse. He won by a length and a half and had a 77 speed rating. These aren’t the most delicate of two-year-olds, but take caution on that rest. This is Spin’s hidden entry, and on a month’s rest or more I might be liking him. This is a test of his ability, and for that reason (along with the rest), I won’t recommend the son of EXCEED AND EXCEL, especially at odds of only 5-1 .

   9   DETEHILL shouldn’t be in this race. She was third in a non-maiden $30000 claimer first time out, with a lowly 46 SP. Down to a $6250 claimer, he was second by a length with a 48. The CETEWAYO colt stepped up to a maiden allowance and was eleventh by eleven lengths. He showed in maiden claimers $25000 and $35000 consecutively. Last time out he was fourth by two in a maiden claimer $7500 and finished with a 52 speed rating. He’s switching to turf but he really can’t win this one. This is one of four entries for Graywolf. He’s understandably 102-1.

   10     RED’S RAVEN is currently sitting sixth in the two year old turf Eclipse Award standings, and has a chance to jump one, two or even three places with a win here. The talented two year old colt is a perfect four for four in his career, with a two length win in his debut at six furlongs. His next race was a locally bred NW2l allowance. He handled that with decent ease, and a pocket trip allowed him a one length win with a 76, again at six furlongs. Jockeymax gave him a stakes try next, and he drew away on cue, winning by two lengths, cracking the 80 rating with an 82 in the Prados Big Fan Juvenile Stakes. This son of RAVEN’S PASS wasn’t done yet, as he made basically the same move in the July Stakes G2, and won basically the same way. A length and a quarter win with an 88 gave him his G2 badge, and he looks good here. This one could even be a BB Juvenile Turf contender. I love this horse, and he’s going on my watch list. A great bet at 7-2.

   11     EHECATL DROP won his maiden debut last time out. He’s only had one start today and Jaka wanted to see what his LEMON DROP KID home-bred could possibly do. He got a perfect trip and won his maiden $45,000 with a 67 speed figure. His last race speed figure was fairly low, and he’s not worth a bet at 7-1.

   12     DEVIANT YOU had been pretty impressive in four career starts until his previous race. He made it look easy in his debut, going wire-to-wire at 4-1 and scored a 79 speed rating. His NW2l try was a similar breeze, again going pole-to-pole with a 74 SP, an even better indicator he was under wraps. An early speed duel in the Triple P G3 left him too tired to hold off the closers, he still finished a strong third there and finally hitting an 80 speed figure. It looks like last time out this SIYOUNI colt was simply bested. He never touched the lead and backed up in crunch time. I’m hoping this colt can get back on track, but as a bettor I won’t recommend him. Winsalot gets him a decent 9-2

MY SELECTIONS

1-   10   RED’S RAVEN
2-   3   DARK ENCOSTA
3- |  2  | LIVING CONDITIONS

Longshot Play-    5    BLAMEITONDAHBOOGIE

Views (755)