Oct 292015

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile

Kentucky (KY) | Saturday, October 23, 2015 | 2:40 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 2yos Only | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile plays host to some of the world’s best dirt rookies, including the second rated two-year old dirt horse in the world STORM CAT HUMOR, third rated in the dirt rookie category LION’S SLEW, and fifth rated horse in the category LIGHTNING STRIFE, among others. With fourteen owners trying to give their horses the best chance at winning the biggest two-year-old race in the world, it should be a great one. Let’s go now to the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile.

    1     HADROSAUR (SKOR) lost will last time out in the North Fork GI, falling from first to tenth in that outing. He is by HANSEN out of stakes winning mare SOUR GOLF, but this is her only stakes winning (and graded stakes winning) foal. His only notable win is the GIII Pea Patch Juvenile two starts back. The colt may have trouble with his up-front running style, with several other of those types of runners attempting the Juvy. This could be a tough one for the youngster, and he’s a longshot at 17-1. His owner was not available to comment on him.

|   2   | LINGERING SMOKE (USA) is stepping up from the GIII level with his first major win (and start) of his career on Saturday. This scratch-bred is by DROSSELMEYER and uses the DS DEHERE, which seems to have been a pretty potent mix. His only major win was the GIII Charcoal Breeder’s Cup. Racing on the slop for that one and racing in a route for the second time, he looked dominant. However, it’s a massive undertaking to go from a GIII to the BB. He’s gonna need to sweat for all he’s worth to win this one. Steve555 did not comment on his horse’s chances.

    3     BLANK SPACE (USA) is also a GIII stepper, coming up from a win in the Times Square Derby. By TAPIT, and out of GI winning mare TAYLOR’S STORY (who is also out of a GI winner), his pedigree was very promising, and as a two-year-old GIII winner, I’d say he’s lived up to expectations. With his first major win last time, and a 100 SP, he looks good into the race. However, he is also going to have to run strongly to beat this strong bunch. The colt is 7-1, but unfortunately, Deyoto was unavailable for an interview.

    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE (USA) comes off the first grade one win of his career. His big wins have been the GIII Trixy Delight’s Special and the GI North Fork Stakes. By superstar AWESOME AGAIN, and out of the stakes winning mare MAGPIES CAT- who has produced two GI winners, two GII winners and two other stakes winners, this colt is incredibly well bred. Very impressive last time in the GI North Fork Stakes, this colt swept by foes to win- seemingly easily. This colt has a fantastic career ahead of him, especially if he wins the BB Juvenile. A good bet at 7-1. Here’s the word from trainer Punter34: “Pretty happy with how the horse has progressed and hoping he will give a good show. Been playing this game long enough to know anything can happen but wouldn’t swap my horse for anything. Hopefully he can get a nice position and finish off like he has been.”

    5     PULPASNITZ (USA) has GI experience, finishing third last time in the North Fork Stakes. By SNITZEL and out of a mare who is yet to produce a stakes winner (yes, including this colt), his breeding was no guarantee. Nonetheless, the colt can produce with a good move in the North Fork. Racing against many horses who were also in that grade one, he will need to step it up, but has a good chance led by N Lawton, the rider who guided him in that North Fork Stakes. The horse has the talent, but he will need a good trip. I’d take his odds of 15-1, at least in your pick four. I could not find Sixesplus (a singular stable, with just eleven horses), this horse’s owner.

    6     DEADMONEY CADET (USA) comes up from an End Of The Line Futurity GI, where he actually gained late, but lost a position, as he finished third by a neck. He doesn’t have any major wins besides a listed stakes (the June Stakes 100k), but has been close in his past two. A scratch-bred by great sire MORE THAN READY, with the DS UNBRIDLED’S SONG, his breeding is spectacular, and he’s currently looking very promising. A colt that can get it done at 9-1 off a good performance. Here’s what Cadet had to say: “DEADMONEY CADET is pretty game and has been training sharply. We have been working him in company behind horses to get him to rate his speed a bit more. I feel he was a bit dead in the stretch in his last run and will need to improve his kick in order to get the top spot in the BB. DEADMONEY has shown top class and guts this year grinding out a couple graded placings, I feel a similar effort in the BB would be satisfactory, obviously getting as many graded points towards the derby is the plan. A lot of talented 2 yr olds are in the entry box and a couple that have already posted triple digit figures. Looks like might be a top 5 choice, but the only one without graded success. A change in tactics, third run at two turns, a little improvement, a lot of racing luck, and we feel he might just be good enough.”

    7     VYRANTIUM (USA) is one of the more experienced of the bunch, with four wins from seven starts. He’s got one listed stakes victory and one major win in the GII Hoserhead Stakes. By very good sire MORE THAN READY and out of stakes winning mare BREAKNECK, who has produced one GII winner (this colt) and two other stakes winners among five runners. In his past two, she was third by three lengths in the Hopeless Stakes GI, and moving into a routing contest for the first time, the distance clearly helped, as he was second by only a head in that contest (to NUREYEV’S GHOST), while switching to his regular jock’s brother, R Radzinski. Today I think the colt has a very good chance, but the shorter rest may hinder the youngster. Nonetheless, he looks sharp at 7-1, and his trainer said this: “There’s good news and bad news going into the race for me. Good news is his mare was best at 8.5/9F. Bad news is his siblings have been better sprinting. Tough race with a lot of runners who have already won routing – something my guy hasn’t done. I could win or run last – it looks to be a very competitive race.”

    8     STORM CAT HUMOR (USA) is off a terrific three race winning streak, in which all of her major wins have occurred. Those are: the GIII Montana Futurity, the GII Standford, and the GI Dell Computer Futurity. A scratch-bred by DISTORTED HUMOR, using STORM CAT as the dam-sire, the breeding has clearly been effective. With the most earnings of any starter ($801,360), he’s improving with every run. The colt however, does not have any route experience, though he did seem to enjoy seven furlongs last time. His mid-pack style could suit today’s distance, but it’s hard to tell his abilities as a router. He still looks very good. He’s 8-1, and here’s what his owner had to say: “This has been one of my favorite horses in the barn. After starting his career overseas I brought him to the states back in June with this race as the goal. He has proved to be a top sprinter but I think he could get better as he stretches out. I mapped out his path to this race early and wanted him to have a little break before this race. He won the Dell Computer Futurity very easily and looked like he had plenty left in that race. Think he has a big chance here.”

    9     MAKE EM BELIEVE (USA) bounced back well in the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile, following a poor performance in the GII Hoserhead Juvenile GII. By MACHO UNO and out of a GII winning mare JUPITER THE SEA, the good breeding has paid off. With major wins in the GII Vermont BB Juvenile and the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile. He looks sharp coming off a nice win in a route for the first time, and he looks good for all exotic wagering at 13-1. His owner, Mrxrayz, could not be found to comment on any of his three runners.

   10    KAMDEN (USA) enters just the third race of his career, taking a sharp step up to the GI level from allowance last time. No major wins to date. This scratch-bred is by BLAME, with the dam-sire A. P. INDY, and is well bred. After a maiden win with an 84 SP, he was second in his NW2l allowance. Taking a very big step, he then made a move for the North Fork Stakes GI and was beaten by none other than LIGHTNING STRIFE, finishing second by two lengths. This colt shows a lot of potential, and can very well win the Juvy in the fourth start of his career. You’ll find 11-1 on him. No word from his trainer.

   11    LION’S SLEW (TUR) represents one of two international-born colts, and looks very good to take it for Turkey. He’s a scratch-bred by LION HEART, and the dam-sire SEATTLE SLEW. This colt won the Hopeless Stakes GI in his most recent (his only major win), going wire-to-wire. His career high SP jumped from an 86 to a 98 as well in that contest, and he now switches to two turn racing for the first time. Guided by A Jolly, who is a slight downgrade from T Ace- who he got last time, but this horse looks ready to go. A good choice at a fantastic 11-1. His owner, Stockswami said this: “He has been a real joy to be around. He is less then 1/2 length from being a perfect 6 for 6. Like many of the top horses at this stage he has shown a tendency to jump right to the front and see if anyone can catch him. So far that has been a winning formula but with many horses wanting to run the same type race, this should be a fun one to watch. If he can get the distance he could be tough.”

   12    MACH THREE LAUNCH (USA) moves up from his second GIII in a row, catching by half a length in his latest at a mile. By MACHO UNO out of REDHEAD NICOLE, who has three stakes winners (including this colt) in her progeny count. After a big win, the colt gets jockey S Ledwith, and needs a good trip to get it done. From a GIII to the Breeder’s Bowl is a tough step. He’s 12-1. Again, Mrxrayz could not be found for a comment.

   13    NUREYEV’S GHOST (USA) recently scored his first GI win, going wire-to-wire in the End Of The Line Futurity, and headbobbed his way to victory to win by a head. That was his only major win to date. The scratch-bred by GHOSTZAPPER has now covered his breeding cost and more. Of five races, the colt has a maiden win, allowance win, and GI win, while finishing third in one of two listed stakes starts. This colt has a lot of early speed and looks worthy of a Breeder’s Bowl win with a most recent 97 speed rating. He’s 7-1, and we’ll go to trainer Stockswami to comment on one of his three entries: “He is another horse that likes to get out in front and let everyone else play catch up. The one thing he has over my other two horses is he has shown he can get this distance. He seems to be improving the more distance he runs. He also gets one of the top Jockeys in the world, so think he has a good shot of being somewhere close at the finish.”

   14    GIANT STORM BREWIN (USA) was a live third in the Sparkling Wine Stakes GI, and will look to improve on that performance here. He’s got no major wins to his name, but two big ITM finishes. By GIO PONTI out of allowance winning dam NORTHWEST PASSAGE II (the first one was unsafe?) who has one stakes winner and one GII winner as her notable offspring. He looks for his first stakes win, and that could be a tough undertaking in a BB race. He’s a nice horse, but from the fourteen hole, it’ll be tough. He’s 12-1, and here’s what his connections say: “GIANT STORM BREWIN should relish the extra half furlong. I had high hopes early in his career after winning his first two starts, but he was pretty mediocre after that…until he really surprised me in the G2 7f race. I really just threw him in there because there weren’t any good matching conditions available. He really surprised there and followed up with the 3rd in the G1 to earn his chance. Honestly, I’m good with wherever he finishes because I really had no expectations in either of those previous two. Jock “J Dawg” has really seemed to get extra out of him so hoping he chooses on this week.” Unfortunately, it looks like J Dawg has chosen to bypass the Juvenile.

My Selections

1-    8     STORM CAT HUMOR


3-    7     VYRANTIUM

Longshot Play-   11    LION’S SLEW

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Oct 282015

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Distaff

Kentucky (KY) | Saturday, October 31, 2015 | 2:30 PM EST
Grade I | $3,000,000 | 3yo+, F&M Only | 9 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

This 2015 rendition of the BB Distaff will pit some of the world’s best mares against each other for a top prize of $3,000,000. It should be a very exciting race, and I’m excited to cover it. It’s Breeder’s Bowl weekend, the most exciting weekend on the Sim calender, home to the world’s best horses! Without further ado, here’s my coverage of the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Distaff!

    1     BARDEN BELLA ranks third among fillies and mares in the EOY Award rankings, and for good reason. She has two GI wins and one GII win in her past five, as well as one on-the-board finish in a GI. Her notable career wins include the GIII Meadows Oaks, the GII Cotton Handicap, the GI Santa Marina Handicap, GI Steadhemp/Mike Phipps Handicap, and the GII Clemente. By top 2014 sire STREET CRY and out of stakes winning mare KITTY KATZ who has foaled a GII winners and two stakes winners along with this grade one winner, she’s impeccably bred. In her last race however, she was trumped in the Bra Snap GI, won by OIL FOREVER, where she was seventh by seven lengths, and I asked her trainer, Theoc, what happened: “I really don’t know what happened in her last race, I think she just had an off day. If she draws inside, she typically runs her race so this run as the favorite was puzzling. I hope she can rebound in the BB Distaff since some of her biggest wins came after disappointing runs. I hope to lure a jockey that knows her and that she draws inside. I honestly think she will show her true form in the Distaff and hit the board at a minimum.” I believe she can bounce back and win this race, and she may have just had an off day as her trainer implied. A great horse, and probably worth the bet at 7-1.

|   2   | SILVER SHOT K dropped in class last time from a GIII to a listed stakes where she won by two lengths. Major wins include the GI California Oaks, GIII Northern Oaks, GII Jump Town Handicap, and the GII Northern Lights. By TRAPPE SHOT, this is a bargain bred out of a mare whose only allowance winner or higher has been this filly. She did dominate that last listed stakes race, but has been having trouble at higher classes as of late. Including three also-rans in the GII First State Distaff, GII Clemente and GIII Chicago Matron Handicap. The seasoned horse who was fourth in last year’s Distaff, second in the GI Players Club National Oaks, and second in the Bluegrass Oaks seems to be dropping in form lately. She’s going to need a big bounce-back performance to win a race in the highest caliber in the world. Here’s what Murray1 says about his 5-1 shot: “Silver Shot ran very well in her most recent race but to be honest I will be happy if she hits the board.” Short but sweet.

    3     MISS MO has been on a GI winning tear this season, and seems to be hitting her peak as a three-year-old. She’s by UNCLE MO out of a mare with fantastic pedigree but was a flop on the track, and besides this filly, hasn’t been great in the breeding shed- ACT QUICKLY. The filly started the 2015 campaign with a poor tenth in the Local Championship Stakes for Kentucky, but rebounded to win a listed stakes next time out. Stepping up to the GI level, she scored in the GI Miss Consolation at 12-1, and she kept the doubters guessing in her next start by winning the GI Sister Hen Stakes. Unfortunately she was finally defeated at ten furlongs last time in the Birmingham Stakes GI and the extra furlong killed her, falling back to fifth in the final furlong. But she’s back to nine furlongs, and she’s a very valuable play as the bookies have placed her at 22-1. I recommend a bet at big odds, and this is what trainer Kashbarn had to comment: “She has turned out to be a big surprise to me, far exceeding my expectations. She’s my first and only G1 winner. It is going to be a tough field and I debated not entering her but I figured that being eligible for a Breeders’ Bowl race does not come every day so I opted to go for it. Her last start was rough and the 10 furlong distance was a concern. She got caught up in a front end battle which did not work out well and the distance I feel may have been a tad too long. Going back to 9 furlongs is the distance that she has won in her prior two starts and is a better fit than the 10 furlongs. She’s been training well for the race and looks pretty relaxed. I expect a good run from her but it is always hard when you are going against the best of the best and it’s an honor to be in the race.”

    4     MEZTLI MOON hasn’t been her best self lately and will hope to turn the year around here. By MALIBU MOON, the scratch-bred filly has the damsire of DEPUTY MINISTER and has some very good breeding. Her major wins are the GI Getaway Stakes and the GI Movieland Scarlet. She finished her 2014 season with a bang after a second in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly and a win in the Movieland Scarlet GI. After a tightener in her first 2015 start to win an open allowance for fillies, but didn’t win another race in 2015. Her only highlights were a show in the Bluegrass Oaks GI and in her latest, a third by a length in the Cotton Handicap GII. She’s a great horse, but really needs to turn it around here to find a way to win. Watch for a sharp (or sluggish) workout. She’s 22-1, and here’s what her trainer Daniel said about her: “I had big hopes for Meztli Moon this year, she was super fast as 2yo, probably one of the fastest 2yo fillies ever, so I thought I’d give her a nice rest and was aiming for the Oaks, she started good in allowance and finished poorly in the graded attempt after that. I figured maybe I just got a good 2yo, but with a 3rd in the Oaks I was pleased and I think last start actually showed me she is trying to find the form again, overall it has been a very frustrating year, but she have managed to get enough points to get in. If she can improve her speed a bit, she will have a chance to finish top-5, if she manage to get top-3 I will be over the moon.”

    5     ARCHEZATA  is having a good 2015, but has been unsuccessful in her past three. She’s by ARCH out of allowance winning mare KAMIKAZE who is the mother of two GI winners, one GII winner and four other stakes winners. She’s won many listed stakes races, but her biggest glory is the Before This Please GI from May of this year. Three back, she never had a move in the Very Vane GI, and in her next, the Personal Sign GI, she finished third by two lengths. Her last however, was just a bad start, and ran seventh by four in a listed stakes. She’s really going to have to bounce back hard as she steps into the toughest competition of her life off one of the worst starts of her life at 9-1. Given is currently vacationing in Costa Rica, but here is his disgruntled comment about his runner: “She won a Grade 1 a long time ago and her form inexplicably tailed off immediately after. Seems to happen to all of my horses these days.”

    6     OIL FOREVER is ranked sixth among the fillies and mares division of the Eclipse rankings, and has been very strong racing at the graded stakes level for every entry from November 29, 2014 onwards. Mentionable victories include the GI Los Vinegrette Stakes, GI California Stakes and, most recently, the GI The Bra Snap. The sophomore filly by CANFORD CLIFFS out of OIL ON TOP an impeccable dam, all of whose three runners have been GI winners. Last time out in the Bra Snap, she beat two other GI winners, and several other stakes and graded stakes winners including the Eclipse Award- winning BENCHIAN FINGERS. This will be the second time in a row the filly tries aged company, and looks sharp and up to the task with a 113 last race speed figure. For superb trainer Pye, the filly is 13-1 and is definitely worth a big wager. Here’s what Pye had to say: “Feeling really good about OIL FOREVER in the distaff. She handled the older company well last start and her race spacing appears to have maintained a little bit of juice for these late-season races after a disappointing spring/summer. Her last 9f race was in the Oaks where she ran subpar (but not terrible) but I don’t expect distance to be a hindrance. Will feel extra confident if jock “A Rolling” gets in the irons again.”

    7     SUPER GOOD has stepped up from allowances after 6/21, where he won in dominating fashion, and tried the Gold Rush GIII, where he did not disappoint, winning by two lengths in a career record 106 SP. By SUPER SAVER, the colt’s scratch breeding was well founded. Major wins are only the GIII Gold Rush and GI The Leg Drop. She recently stepped into GIs, with her first at the class on August 22, 2015 and won, with a career high 109 SP in the GI Birmingham Stakes. Last time out, in the Leg Drop GI, and looks very sharp, with a 114 speed figure and a strong second place finish. I like the horse today, but the one point of concern is that she drops from eleven furlongs to nine, and I’m not sure how it will effect the horse, as she’s not tried the distance in a graded stakes race. She’s 12-1, and here’s what her trainer- Kingranch, had to say: “I’m really excited to run Super Good in the BB Distaff. I feel like this race might be a little short for her, she really fits better at 10f, Opportunities like this don’t come often, so you take your shot and hope for the best. My gal will be flying late, she has a massive closing kick.”

    8     MEGASTORM is another one racing on just less than a month’s rest, and on this one, it could be more of a hindrance than an advantage. She’s by MEDAGLIA D’ORO and out of the stakes winning mare ALBERTA STORM, who has foaled a stakes winner, GIII winner, and this GI winner on five starters. Her only major win is the GI Very Vane (as well as a listed stake). Both of those came in 2015, with the listed stakes win at the start of the year, while being run down to third in her next start, the Ramp Art Handicap GII. Next time out, in the GIII Route Sixty Six, she was unable to find the front, and had no late run, and finished fifth. In her best career win, next time out, two-and-a-half months later, had an easier time coming from the presser’s role, and won by a neck in the GI Very Vane. With her next start being a third in the GI Go For Gold Stakes where she ran third, and her last as a fourth in the Great Dame GI, I think it’d be more beneficial on more than a month’s rest. Her owner could not be reached for a comment, and she’s 7-1.

    9     SEBASTOPOL  has not won a GI race but has Breeder’s Bowl experience from last year’s Juvenile Filly where she finished fourth. This filly’s major win was the GII Fantasia Handicap. This is the only graded stakes winner for dam SONOMA COAST and remains one of two graded stakes winners by sire UNION RAGS. For the filly, four starts back was one of the best for her, as she lost by just a head in the Chestnut Stakes to MR. P’S MEDS. She appeared to be losing class as she stepped to the GIII level to finish fourth and second twice in a row, leading up to her last race. That race was the Cotton Handicap GII at Presque Isle, and won the early speed duel only to be run down by THREE OLIVE BARB and finish second. She’s stepping up big time here, and needs to put in a career best performance for this one. Her odds are 17-1, and here’s her trainer’s comment: “She’s been one of the more frustrating horses I’ve had. She was just caught for 3rd in the BB Juvenile Fillies last year after opening up a big lead, and ended up 4th. She had a big win in the G2 Fantasia in April earlier this year, a major prep for the Bluegrass Oaks. But then she totally flopped in the Oaks, finishing last. My hope is her poor performance was due more to bouncing off that big effort rather than the added distance, that being her only run at 9 furlongs. Then 5 weeks later, she was beaten a head in the G1 Chestnut. It was a really tough race to watch. 2 starts later, I guess she blew the break rallying from last, instead of being on the pace like she usually is. She was 2nd in that race too, again beaten by the horse that beat her in the Chestnut. Then in the G2 Cotton last time, she again took the lead only to get passed late, finishing 2nd. I’m hopeful for a win.”

   10    MR. P’S MEDS  has been on a very good streak lately, winning seven of her past nine, three at the listed stakes level, two at the GIII level, one at the GII level and one win at the GI level, with both losses at the GII and GI levels (with a third in the GI). Notable wins include the GIII Lady Bourbon, the GI Chestnut Stakes, GII First State Oaks and the GIII Jersey Oaks. By MEDAGLIA D’ORO, I’d say she’s paid off her breeding cost in dividends, with $1.2 million in earnings, and continues to impress. Last time, she battled every step of the way in the GII Cotton Handicap, and because of the suicidal speed duel, she finished fourth, but was very tough, losing by only one length. I believe that shows incredible heart for the three-year-old currently sitting eighteenth on the Eclipse Award point ladder, but the speed duel last time could have had an effect on the horse. That might not be an issue, with more than a month’s rest, but I still suggest watching for signs of fatigue in the paddock or post parade. Other than that I think the horse is very good and could very well take home a major cheque on Saturday. She’s 10-1, but her trainer, Jacklad, could not be reached for a comment.

   11    WHAT IS OBEDIENCE  has won her first GI last time and that is her only major win (with the exception of one listed stakes race)- it is the Great Dame. A scratch-bred by MALIBU MOON, and the dam-sire KRIS S, which turned out to be very good. With a very good win despite being challenged for the first two fractions, this colt made it look easy, winning by three lengths. She’s obviously got a lot of heart and muscle, and she’s looking like she’s in top form leading up to her Breeder’s Bowl try. The co-favourite at 5-1 looks good. Her trainer, Willyam, said this, in confidence: “I love my horse chances. Her victory in the Great Dame was quite impressive hopefully she will run her race on Saturday.”

   12    KUKAA SALAMA  is an experienced graded stakes runner, who was actually second by two lengths in the Distaff 2014 to Eclipse Award winner FIRST DEGREE BERN as a three year old. By super-sire STREET CRY and out of LALA SALAMA, a dam whose produced two stakes winners and one GII winner (this horse) from three runners, she makes another well-bred contender. Her record in graded stakes is twelve races and five wins, as well as five other in-the-money finishes. Notable wins include the GII Miss Bonnie, the GIII Denny Tario Stakes, GIII Rose Garden Handicap, and the GII Hoffa Cup last time out. As mentioned, her last start was in the GII Hoffa Cup on the good dirt against the boys. Her last two grade one tries weren’t great, but looking at her Hoffa Cup win, I’m confident that she’ll be sharp for this one, especially on less than a month’s rest. I like that angle off a bounceback win. She could upset here at 10-1. Here’s what Planoaxius thought about his horse: “Whole season, I hoped she could get in again. Unfortunately, first, she had some bad luck and in the second part of the season, she seemed to be slowing down a bit. After Superfilly Handicap I almost gave up as I didn’t expect 80 stakes pts would be enough for the Distaff. So, she ran against boys in G2, where is more stakes points to earn. And it was good decision – she is back. Personally, for me is great, that she can run again. I think her best days are over, so I don’t expect her to repeat 2nd spot from last year’s edition. Especially, now comes the time of the year when 3yos absolutely dominate the group events. But it’s also about prestige and for me it is always celebration to have horse in Breeders Bowl meeting. So, the goal was reached and now I am just going to watch the race.”

   13    IN THE SYSTEM has graduated from the allowance level and has been surprisingly good in her past three, on a three race win streak. A scratch-bred by TIZNOW, the filly has a Breeder’s Cup winning sire and she hopes to do the same on Saturday. Her mentionable achievements include the Superfilly Handicap GI and the Three Smokestakes Stakes GI (who this writer strongly recommended in his write-up of the contest). Both of those victories were in her last two starts, and it looks like she’s in the midst of her peak, and she’s got a very strong chance to make it three in one of the biggest races for fillies and mares in the world. I also like the shorter rest, because when a horse is in it’s peak, it keeps her sharp, and probably helps chances here. I like the price of 13-1 and the filly is worth the bet. Her owner Danno spoke about her: “I’ve never had a horse like this so I’m trying to be realistic about her chances. She’s coming off a short break into this race so I think she may not be 100%. But she’s been hot lately so I’ll still be hopeful that she gives a good effort”.

   14    OUTBACK LEETON has been having a rough half since May 1, where she was a non-factor in the Bluegrass Oaks GI. Her only noteworthy win has been the Land’s End GII. The scratch-bred by SMART STRIKE has very good breeding, with her dam-sire being STORM CAT. Her Bluegrass Oaks performance was not just a bump in the road however, as she continued to be a non-factor in the New Yorker (understandable on that one), Swamps Stakes GII, and the Birmingham Stakes GI. She wasn’t able to manage to even win a conditioned allowance last time out, placing in that race for fillies without a win in the past six months. This could be the toughest race of the filly’s life, and she certainly doesn’t look up to the task today. Here’s the word from her trainer (Vyz/Kyogle) on how his 51-1 shot might do: “She has to be one of the most frustrating horses I’ve ever had. When she won the G2 Land’s End in March, I thought we may have a budding superstar, but her form since has been woeful. She’s sort of on a last chance. If she flops again she may get another chance at sprinting, but it’s also possible she may be one of my first broodmares used in 2016.”

My Selections

1-    13    IN THE SYSTEM

2-    7     SUPER GOOD

3-    11     WHAT IS OBEDIENCE

Longshot Play-    3     MISS MO

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Oct 232015

Talented Field For The G1 Grand Carlos

Argentina (ARG) | Saturday, October 24, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 3yo+ | 12 Furlongs | Firm Turf

    1     EASTERN APPROACH enters in the 9-5 favourite spot. After a crushing win in the Autumn Stakes GIII (with a 116), a third in the King Geoff GI, a win in the Longstickgoboom GII, and third in the Delta Republic GII, he looks like a very good candidate for the win. The four year old colt by NEW APPROACH has those four accomplishments to his name in the graded stakes department, and he looks for his first GI win here. While his running has been spectacular lately, the other stakes winners won’t let him get off easy. 9-5 is about what I’d have given him.

|   2   | AVEC LE VENT, meaning ‘with the wind’, has indeed run with the wind as of late. Most noteworthy is his last performance, showing drastic improvement in the How Do You Spell That STK, going from a career mark figure of 101 to a whopping 113. That’s his only notable win to date, while the three year old did run fourth in the Adelaide Derby GI just a few months ago. Though it’s tougher company than ever, I can see the son of MANDURO getting a major cheque here.

   3    NOCHEINMAL loves opening up a big lead and attempting to hang on. The move has been successful in every listed stakes start to date, but literally none of his graded stakes tries. While he has been G-placed quite a few times, but can never hang on to win. With little early speed however, it could be the colt’s time to shine. He’s 3-1 off a win in a listed stakes. The sire is DALAKHANI.

   4    WILLIAM’S ROAD is a peculiar 8-1 off a quartet of good GI starts, including a one and a half length win in the World Weekly News 2000 GI. He hasn’t hit the board in his past two, running fourth both times, both live performances however, and I really think he can get the job done here, especially if he can bump that SP up a few points from his most recent 101. By GIANT’S CAUSEWAY and out of GI winning he-mare WILLIAM’S STREET, I like the value I’m getting on this sharp runner. A good bet.

   5   CONTRATIEMPO is a grade one winner, but you wouldn’t be able to tell by his past performances. His only GI win was in July of 2013 where he took the French Grand Prix. Recently he’s been racing at the allowance level, where he’s won three of his past seven, all at that level. It’s also worth noting that he was third in the 2013 BB Turf. However, it looks like he may be past his peak and hasn’t done anything noteworthy in 2015, so I’m going to have to lay off the experienced five year old son of SEA THE STARS. 8-1 is an okay price but isn’t a good bet in the race.

   6    UNCOMMONLY is a grade two winner from 2014 and was third in two GIs in succession. He didn’t score his first win in 2015 until two starts back in a NW1s allowance two starts back, among three graded stakes appearances and two stakes starts- including his last. This is another who seems to be not as good as his past self, and so I can’t play him at this GI level. By MONTJEU, the five year old is 6-1.

   7   STAYING ON TRACK has, in his past four races, attempted all four stakes attempts of his career including one GIII. It looks however, that his better races have been on the dirt, with five wins on eleven starts as opposed to two wins on eleven starts on the turf. On his last three, it’s been two stakes wins (both on dust) and one GIII third. I believe he can be a strong runner, but I actually prefer him on the dirt. 6-1 on the five year old by PULPIT.

   8    ALL HAIL THE KING had been an allowance runner for all fourteen of the four year old’s career until his last start in the Roidazoid Turf Route STK, where he only ran a fifth by four. On just three career wins and only one stakes attempt which was off the board, I strongly discourage a bet on the 10-1 shot by RIP VAN WINKLE. Upset is unlikely.


1-    4    WILLIAM’S ROAD
    3-    3    NOCHEINMAL

Longshot Play- |  2  | AVEC LE VENT

Views (420)

Oct 022015

Top Youngsters Compete For The End Of The Line Futurity G1

Saturday, October 3, 2015 | 3:00 PM | Kentucky (KY)
Grade I | $750,000 | 2-Year-Olds | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

   1   UNO PIMENTO is the son of MACHO UNO, out of EL GRAN GOLDEN, who has produced a grade I winner and two stakes winners (including this colt). After his maiden win on debut, the horse was unable to win as a presser, running up from third in a listed stakes to place. Once adapting a closer’s method in his third start he won his second race- a listed stake. Next out in the Closest Friend G2 he was running eleventh at call two, finishing second at the finish by just a neck. Stepping up half a furlong (and one grade) to the Dell Computer Futurity, in which (if you watch the race) he was hung out three wide the entire trip, and still accelerated late to finish a nice fourth. He switches to a route for the first time, however I think this horse has only good things to come and has the ability to win this one. 9-1 is a nice price.

|  2  | NUREYEV’S GHOST has just four starts, two of which were wins. No stakes wins on two attempts, this son of GHOSTZAPPER was a dominant victor an a Nw2l allowance winning by over three, going wire-to-wire. That last race clearly states that he doesn’t belong in allowance company. But where does he belong? I’d like to see a stakes win before betting him here, and considering his two listed stakes losses, I’ll lay off this time at 7-1.

   3   PREACHER’S CAUSE has amazing breeding, by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, this colt scored a local bred maiden win with a 79 SP in his debut. After a Nw2l place the brown colt was a half length winner (at the same class), and had graded stakes company for the Cryogenics Juvenile G3, where he flew from farther back than ever, nabbing second by a neck to a previous grade II winner. This colt has a bright future but I think the class jump could be a little steep today. You’ll get 8-1 if you disagree.

   4   BROKEN RIDGE is fresh of win number two, where he went gate-to-wire in his fourth start. His only other win was a maiden win, second time out. Despite the outstanding 92 speed rating last time out I can’t assume he has the class yet. The bargain bred son of BROKEN VOW is 24-1 but doesn’t have any stakes experience.

   5   VYRANTIUM comes from a hot race maiden win for his debut, but quickly improved that 64 speed rating with a 78 in a Nw2l allowance. Lenny took his horse to the next step, and he responded, coming from twelfth in the Dynaprospector Dirt Juvenile STK to win by two lengths with an 88. For the Vermont BB Juvenile G2, where he put in a good run, and joined the late cavalry charge to finish sixth by three quarters of a length. Pinning on his G2 badge and scoring the highest speed figure of his career, the MORE THAN READY colt won the Hoserhead Juvenile by more than a length. This colt is impeccably bred- out of stakes winner BREAKNECK, who has produced two stakes winners besides this horse (who is also her first graded stakes winner). Last time out, the colt was a nice third in the Hopeless Stakes G1, losing by three lengths. This looks like a good bet and 6-1 offers great value.

   6   GAMMA RAYZ has hit the board in all seven career starts, including two listed stakes and a grade one. After a debut win, the son of ORB had some trouble notching win number two, running second in an open allowance, second in an Nw2l allowance, second in a listed stake, and finally won an allowance Nw2l three starts ago. With the win in hand, the colt took it to the Almost Whirl Dirt Juvenile STK, and made it look easy, scoring with a career high 94 speed digit. Last time out was his most impressive- which of course in the sim means he’s 10-1. In the Dell Computer Futurity, the colt was displaced from his favoured position, and he ran sixth until the stretch where he poured it on to a bronze medal placing by about three lengths. While at 10-1 he colt could qualify for my longshot play, I doubt that will be necessary. A great bet.

   7   ASHLYDAR has had a two win, five try career so far, and his speed figures weren’t excessively great, until his last start- the Pea Patch Juvenile G3. This colt assumed the closer role, and rolled up from twelfth (ten lengths behind) at the three quarters to place second by a head. The GIANT’S CAUSEWAY colt could be a winner this weekend, and if you see an effective workout, she might be worth your time at 24-1.

   8   DEADMONEY CADET was also a hot race beginner- winning it handily with a high uncharacteristic speed figure for those contest- 78. After easily winning a Nw2l allowance, the MORE THAN READY colt scored in the June Stakes STK, and moved on to G2 company. Taking on The Stanford G2, the colt was locked in a suicidal speed duel which resulted in a tenth place finish for the rookie. Dropping to a G3, the Cadet trainee was caught in the last sixteenth but still showed a career mark 94 SP. The superbly bred colt might have been a good wager in a race with little speed- but his frontrunning style won’t be effective here with so many others doing the same. 9-1 for him.

   9   CALGARY FRONT is a winner of only one. After a win in an ESR maiden race, Balata had him place in a Nw2l allowance. Following, Balata decided to go big or go home, and his decision somewhat paid off with his WAR FRONT colt grabbing third, beaten a length in the High Roller’s Juvenile G2 at six furlongs. Out of ALBERTA GOLD, a mare who has produced two listed stake winners, two G2 winners and one G1 winner while she was a G1 winner herself, this colt looked to join the ranks of this mare’s best as he took on the Hoserhead Juvenile G2. He again was third, and decided it was time for a jockey change for the Dell Computer Futurity G1. It didn’t work out as H Harzheim was unable to get him anywhere close and the horse fell to eleventh at the finish. The one-time winner is 10-1 if you think he can rebound well with a new jock.

  10   GRAVITY ORBIT by ORB, the bay colt is out of outstanding broodmare OUR TATER. While she never won a race on the track, she has produced three listed stakes winners (including this one) and one G2 winner. Also among them are three stakes placed allowance horses. He became another pride of his mother’s last time out with his first stakes win in the Valyrian Edge STK. Previously the colt had three wins (maiden, nw2l, nw3l) on six starts which included a fourth in an earlier listed stakes. He seemed to improve trying the route type last time, and STK to G Stakes winners happen all the time, but this time out I’d like to take an experience graded stakes horse.

  11   EVASIVE MANEUVERS has just four attempts and was previously a turf sprinter. This colt by ELUSIVE QUALITY out of GIANT’S TREASURE- a stakes winning mare who has mothered two stakes winners and three allowance winners on five starters. She’s represented today by a colt fresh off his first allowance victory. Switching to dirt two starts back, the colt was second in a Nw2l allowance and after lengthening to a route last time out, he got a second win. I’m just not sure the horse has the class yet, and he’s 22-1 for Dixiedotco.

  12   AWESOME ONCE MORE is a two time winner by AWESOME AGAIN, with just five races under his belt. The colt’s first race was for the All Stars Racing Res, and after winning that start by a nose, three starts later (both allowances, one win), the rookie was trying the Hoserhead Juvenile G2. Coming from eleventh at the second fraction, the horse flew up to place to none other than VYRANTIUM. Stepping up to the mile distance, the chestnut was a very close third in the Darling-Squash Futurity G3 last time out. Improving every time, the colt has a definite chance. However I’d like to stay with a horse with grade one experience in this field. He’s 9-1.

  13   GROOM TO MEDAL TED is by MEDAGLIA D’ORO, out of grade three winner GROOMED TO ROMP T. The mare has foaled a grade two winner as well as two stakes placed allowance winners. This colt bumps up the SP every time, improving from a 70 debut win to an 87 last time out. With just one win to his name, the colt’s last two races have been very live. In the Midsoil Stakes G2 for his penultimate try, the good-looking grey was fourth- by a neck. That race was promising, and his last race, the Upper New York Special G2 was even more so. The horse challenged for the lead early, but was battled, and the colt still had the heart to hold third by just a neck once more. I love the horse, and he’s only going to get better. Despite his one win, I think he’s worth a bet this time while moving to a route for the first time. Especially at 14-1.

  14   MISSION STREET is tied for the most experienced, with seven races. Taking an unrestricted allowance for his second start. After two stakes tries, including a win, this MISSION IMPAZIBLE colt (out of a mare who has previously mothered a G2 winner) decided to attempt (well, I suppose the owner decided) to move into the graded stakes level, taking on the Faber College Juvenile G3, and was second of fourteen. Two starts back he was second in the Stanford G2 to now G1 winner STORM CAT HUMOR. After that great effort, he took on G1 foes in the Hopeless Stakes. Not too bad for a first time G1 runner, he made a move but was beaten to sixth by five of fourteen. I believe that could’ve been an off day for him, and switching to a route I think he’s got a fair shake at the cash. 10-1 is pretty good.

1-    6    GAMMA RAYZ
2-    5    VYRANTIUM

Longshot Play-   14   MISSION STREET

Views (669)

Aug 262015

Some Top Two-Year-Olds Contest The Blue Diamond Road G1

Victoria-AUS (VIC) | Sunday, August 30, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $750,000 | Two-Year-Olds | 6 Furlongs | Firm Turf

   1    DEEP SOUTH improved drastically in his last. He was a one length winner in his first race, with a 75 SP, and continued to a half length victory in a local bred NW2l allowance, with another 75. ‘It’s stakes time!’ thought trainer Mtk, but his colt wasn’t ready, finishing eighth by five, with another 75 speed figure. His last race was his best, and raced hard but was simply beat by two. He showed great improvement, as previously stated. Whether or not it was actual improvement or the CHOISIR colt reacted very positively to the yielding turf is up to the handicapper, but if you think it’s the former, he might be worth a bet at 6-1.

|  2  | LIVING CONDITIONS has two wins in his career so far. His 69 speed figure debut wasn’t ground-shaking, but a win is a win, and fellow writer Spin entered him to the I Just Love Racing STK. His MASTERCRAFTSMAN home-bred showed a little improvement in the speed figure category, with a 73 and a third place finish. Spin gave him another try in a listed stake, and his horse kept form with a fourth place effort, beaten a length and a half in the Starke Hulk Turf Juvenile. Next up was the Norfellow Stakes G2 where he raced a little closer to the pace, but still finished up fourth by a length and a half, posting the best speed figure of his life. He wanted to see a win, and so the colt was placed on the sloppy dirt where he won by a length in an NW2l allowance. He stayed closer to the pace that time, and if he was helped by the dirt or not, we’ll have to watch. I think he’s got a better shot if he hangs around fourth or third early, but he needs to pump out the best race of his career on Sunday to win. His odds are 9-1 and might be worth a bet.

   3    DARK ENCOSTA debuted in an allowance hot race, and won by a length with only a 60 SP on the dirt. However, Deeprock put him in a lower allowance, and the MORE THAN READY colt handled it well, winning by a length with a much improved 75 speed figure, still on the dust. Deeprock pushed him up once more, but it seems an allowance is as far as the colt’s dirt abilities go. He made a small move in the Sugar Burden Dirt Juvenile but only came up with a fifth. His real potential was unlocked with his switch to grass and this colt went wire-to-wire to win the Smooth Top Turf Juvenile. Similarly to RED’S RAVEN, the colt went to a G2 next. Unfortunately, it was slightly less successful than RED’S RAVEN, with a nice move but a silver medal; he was short by a length. Still looks like a good bet at 5-1, and sitting 22nd at the 2yo open turf Eclipse category.

   4    NOX WOLF is an allowance stepper. He broke his maiden on July third, on the good dirt with a 74 speed figure. That number took a drop in his latest, falling to a 69 in his allowance Nw2l attempt, where he was fifth by six. I think this son of CURLIN should win an allowance before trying a graded stakes, but I suppose switching to turf could help him. No bet at the massive underlay of 13-1 for Graywolf.

   5   BLAMEITONDAHBOOGIE has an amazing name. This colt was fairly unimpressive in his first try, he had only a 62 in a hot race, and was third by a length. Next time out Corza sent him to the lead, and the colt put in a slightly better speed figure of 64, but finished sixth by five. Two starts back he gave the dirt a try, and showed significant improvement, finishing second by a length and a half. Last time out, this DANCE IN THE DARK colt finally scratched that itch. He went wire-to-wire and gave a 75 speed figure. He looks like the likeliest early speed, but I still think he’ll get beat. Another one taking an ability test, so I won’t bet at 17-1.

   6     CHARNWOOD DEPUTY is a first time starter by HAWK WING (son of WOODMAN), whose winners from starters rate is actually an above average 66%. His dam-sire is CHARNWOOD FOREST and the DDS is SILVER DEPUTY. I can’t bet a first time starter in a G1 especially one whose breeding isn’t stellar. Another entry from Graywolf, he’s 65-1.

   7   IN THE EXCEL is another first time starter for Graywolf, he’s by rookie sire BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE, who has ten winners from nine starters so far, but because of the dam-sire EXCEED AND EXCEL, Graywolf has created a 2Sx2D nick of that horse. This horse has been inbred very closely, and I’m afraid for it’s safety, to be honest. It’s breeding in terms of sire quality isn’t bad, but his nicking makes him a bad bet. He’s 22-1.

   8   AN ODD CHOICE is fresh off his maiden win this week. That win came just ten days ago, which could be a concern for the horse. He won by a length and a half and had a 77 speed rating. These aren’t the most delicate of two-year-olds, but take caution on that rest. This is Spin’s hidden entry, and on a month’s rest or more I might be liking him. This is a test of his ability, and for that reason (along with the rest), I won’t recommend the son of EXCEED AND EXCEL, especially at odds of only 5-1 .

   9   DETEHILL shouldn’t be in this race. She was third in a non-maiden $30000 claimer first time out, with a lowly 46 SP. Down to a $6250 claimer, he was second by a length with a 48. The CETEWAYO colt stepped up to a maiden allowance and was eleventh by eleven lengths. He showed in maiden claimers $25000 and $35000 consecutively. Last time out he was fourth by two in a maiden claimer $7500 and finished with a 52 speed rating. He’s switching to turf but he really can’t win this one. This is one of four entries for Graywolf. He’s understandably 102-1.

   10     RED’S RAVEN is currently sitting sixth in the two year old turf Eclipse Award standings, and has a chance to jump one, two or even three places with a win here. The talented two year old colt is a perfect four for four in his career, with a two length win in his debut at six furlongs. His next race was a locally bred NW2l allowance. He handled that with decent ease, and a pocket trip allowed him a one length win with a 76, again at six furlongs. Jockeymax gave him a stakes try next, and he drew away on cue, winning by two lengths, cracking the 80 rating with an 82 in the Prados Big Fan Juvenile Stakes. This son of RAVEN’S PASS wasn’t done yet, as he made basically the same move in the July Stakes G2, and won basically the same way. A length and a quarter win with an 88 gave him his G2 badge, and he looks good here. This one could even be a BB Juvenile Turf contender. I love this horse, and he’s going on my watch list. A great bet at 7-2.

   11     EHECATL DROP won his maiden debut last time out. He’s only had one start today and Jaka wanted to see what his LEMON DROP KID home-bred could possibly do. He got a perfect trip and won his maiden $45,000 with a 67 speed figure. His last race speed figure was fairly low, and he’s not worth a bet at 7-1.

   12     DEVIANT YOU had been pretty impressive in four career starts until his previous race. He made it look easy in his debut, going wire-to-wire at 4-1 and scored a 79 speed rating. His NW2l try was a similar breeze, again going pole-to-pole with a 74 SP, an even better indicator he was under wraps. An early speed duel in the Triple P G3 left him too tired to hold off the closers, he still finished a strong third there and finally hitting an 80 speed figure. It looks like last time out this SIYOUNI colt was simply bested. He never touched the lead and backed up in crunch time. I’m hoping this colt can get back on track, but as a bettor I won’t recommend him. Winsalot gets him a decent 9-2


1-   10   RED’S RAVEN

Longshot Play-    5    BLAMEITONDAHBOOGIE

Views (755)

Jul 242015

12 Set To Battle In The Eddie O Cap

California (CA) | Saturday, July 25, 2015 | Eddie O Cap | Grade I
$750,000 | 3yos And Upwards | 9 Furlongs | Firm Turf

GALILEO’S IMPACT(1) has been superb even beyond the 12 boxes the program allows. He started off with a 71 speed rating and a head-bob win in his debut. He improved every start and was eventually a strong third in The Jockey Club G1. He followed up with a dud in The French Grand Prix. The four year old by DEEP IMPACT (JPN) got right back on track however with a five race win streak with the fifth win being the Chauncer Gold Cup G3. It was concluded last month with a hard-fought place in the Kakarazuka Tinen Cup G2. As the colt drops to 9 furlongs here, probably helping his front-runner style, it boggles my mind that he’s 14-1. However, there’s an abundance of other speed in this one. I’d make a small play here.

FRANKEL’S CLONE(2) was given the same breeding as the undefeated champion and it seems to have worked out fairly well. The four year old had five maiden tries and on the fifth, on the switch to a route, the GALILEO colt took two right turns and romped home. He was then defeated in a stakes race off that maiden win, and started to improve. After his NW3L win, he ran in the California Chrome Cap G1 and was simply outclassed. Unfortunately, the mrcstc trainee has not show the kind of mettle you need for a G1 on recent form including a dusting in The Bourbon Mile G2 and a late stall in the Danjing Turf Stayer STK. He even failed to reach up off a great trip in a NW4X allowance last time out. I discourage a bet on this one and only adds more meat to the early fray.

GAVIIFORMES(3) has won fifty percent of his races and broke his maiden with his first try on the dust. The SUMMER BIRD colt continued for his NW2L win and a failure in a stakes race before given put him on the lawn. He looked dominant in his NW3L allowance and put in an improved performance in a stakes race. One more start on the dirt was enough after a fifth place finish and the colt never saw the surface again. He continued to develop greatly and won two allowances and put in five great stake races in a row. His late move won him the Jennifer Connley BC Turf Cap G3 and followed up with a show in the Aught Conn Cup G3 and, in his most recent, a fifth place effort in the Solaguen Turf Challenge STK. The odds maker make him the luke warm 5-1 favourite, but I won’t be playing the colt who seems to be regressing.

PARTINGOFTHEREDSEA(4) began with an 88 speed rating and third place money in his maiden voyage. He was then fifth of seventeen in an ASR residency stake race and broke his maiden a race later with a great 96 SP. He had a reality check in the Moises Alou Cap G2 and after a hands down victory in a NW2L he was again swamped, this time in the Oppenheimer Reunion G3. The creatively named SEA THE STARS (IRE) colt continued to bang in some nice finished in six listed stakes in a row (including a win) after a NW2X victory. He was the runner up to GAVIIFORMES in the Jennifer Connley BC Turf Cap G3 and followed it up with a sixth in the Texas Turf Cup G3 and then a ninth in the United Invitational G2. Again, this one’s form makes him harder to recommend, and 10-1 isn’t enough for me, especially with his up-front style .

ROXY EPOXY(5) looked impressive as he won a maiden race for an ASR series with an impressive 92 SP. He then weakened in an allowance in the same series and then won handily in the finale of that series (a stakes classed race). He became even better by winning several allowances in a row prior to a step to a G3. He dealt with that swiftly (pun intended) and weakened late in The Victoria Cup G2 to finish fifth. He stomped the Woody Ford G1 and was nosed out in The Queen Sam G1. Next, he moved on to last year’s Eddie O Cap. He came second in that edition and will no doubt be looking for a repeat or better on Saturday. After that, he was given the honour of a chance in the Breeder’s Bowl Mile but couldn’t convert. He’s continued to live up to expectations and was passed late in The Coupe G3 to finish second by two lengths. His frontrunner style is hindered by the large amount of speed, but 6-1 is a pretty good price and I’d recommend using the TANINO GIMLET five year old horse in any multi-race exotics and even a win bet.

HIGH SPEED RAIL(6) wasn’t actually outstanding in his debut. He only had a 66 speed rating and a place, but three races later and the BULLET TRAIN (GB) colt wins by two with an 89. He was a non-factor in a Testbarn stake race. He continued with five allowances until he won at 11 furlongs in a NW3L. He completed the tri in two stakes in a row and won another NW3L three races later. He placed in the High River Turf Route STK by a quarter of a length followed by an easy $45,000 in a local allowance win. He was a 16-1 longshot win in the Woody Ford G1 (his penultimate try) and came up empty with a seventh in the NY Island Cap G1 last time out. I’m going to treat that race as a tightener and as he moves back down to nine furlongs as the Woody Ford was. I think this colt has a great chance, especially with the probable blazing early fractions and this colts closer strategy, and 10-1 is an amazing price. You should make a play on this one.

WE SHALL BE FREE(7) was tested extensively before a stakes try. Firstly, he took five races to break his maiden and did so after his switch to the grass and won by a neck. Twelve more allowances ensued and finally, after his NW4L win, chloedog gave his FRANKEL (GB) colt the green light for a G2. He’s put in three lackluster performances in two G2s and a stakes race. Looking at his form, I doubt the colt can improve here. He’s 10-1 but he looks like an also-ran to me, even with his ability to close. No value here.

JT’S MEDICATION(8) is the least experienced of this bunch; he’s raced just eight times in his two and a half year career. The bay colt has lost just three times; after he broke his maiden by four lengths, he was nosed out of a NW1X allowance. He proceeded to win his NW2L, NW3L, and NW4L consecutively. His next loss came three starts back where he was fifth beaten nine lengths in a non-restricted allowance. Not to worry though, the MEDICEAN (GB) colt got right back on his feet and won an unrestricted allowance in his penultimate effort by two lengths with a 108 speed rating. Most impressively however, in his latest, the jimntom pupil took a large step into the Soggy Biscuit Invitational G1 and closed the gap on the good turf for a third place finish. He’s going to be looking to improve off that nice effort and maybe reach up for the race win. He’s 13-1 and merits consideration in wagering, especially due to his closing style, and the huge amount of early speed in this contest.

LA FAMIGLIA(9) can look impressive on both surfaces. The CURLIN progeny is 5 for 9 on dirt and 3 for 6 on turf. He broke his maiden on the dirt in fact, on his fourth try (two being on the grass). This colt continued to flourish on the dirt and took home his first stakes win on that track. Only after an eleventh place finish in the Windy City Gold Cup G2 did frankster give his colt a second chance on the grass. He won on his first start back in a tight-knit duel in the Are You Surprised Turf Special STK. For his next trick, the colt went pole-to-pole in the Jabba The Hut G2 for a three length win and the best speed figue of his career (115). In his penultimate act, he lined up for The Aussie Queen G1. He made a move on the turn but tired in the stretch. I doubt he could have done any better as he was facing tough company, and fifth I’m pretty impressed he could beat some of the horses he did, including Eclipse winner WANNA BE FAMOUS. In his most recent endeavor, he made it look easy in The Dishpan G2 and wants to add his G1 medal here. 6-1 is a nice price but he does add to the inevitable early duel. Use your discretion.

THEWORDISTIMELESS(10) flew by his debut quite literally with a two length win and only got better from there. The colt won his NW2L allowance by the same margin as his maiden and then finished a sharp second in a NW3. He then followed up with a far back third in a listed stakes and finally won his NW3L. Again he showed in a stakes race and following that was edged out in a $75,000 unrestricted allowance. He handily won a NW4L and, yet again, finished third in a stakes (though this time the Sanders Stakes G2). We’re up to three starts ago now, where he cruised by an unrestricted allowance by over four lengths. And, thanks to this FASTNET ROCK (AUS) colt’s inherent obsession with show money, we’ve completed the winning triactor from the Jennifer Connly BC Turf Cap. Yep, he came third again that time with a sharp 110 SP. Finally, last time out he broke the streak and placed in The Diolated Stakes G3 by about two lengths. He’ll need to step up but he’s aided in that quest by his closer format and the multitude of speed in this contest. 6-1 is pretty good.

MY WELL ADORED(11) has had twenty four races starting in 2012. The five year old tried twice on the dirt before breaking his maiden on the turf. He was thrown in a stakes race where he was a fairly beaten third by nine. In his 2013 season opener he showed in a NW2L allowance on the soil and never saw that surface again. Back on the turf he took on another listed stakes and looked pretty sharp there, a nice second. After two more allowance wins in three races he failed in three stakes in a row, ending off with a disappointing tenth by eleven to debut 2014. He then begun to improve, and hit the board in four conditioned allowances in a row, one of them being a win. He was finally able to pin on the ‘stakes winner’ badge after winning by two on the good turf. He failed on the yielding turf and took a four month layoff into 2015. He began with a NW3Y allowance win in March off the layoff and came into the Jaques Turf Route STK where he couldn’t move well enough and came sixth by nine. In The Dishpan he came on late for a fourth place finish by three and a half. In his last entry, he again made a small move but came up empty in the Soggy Biscuit G1 on the good turf in a sixth place effort. To me, it looks like the DYNAFORMER colt is begging eminc for some more racetrack to work with. I can’t warrant a wager here at 6-1, unless you really fear the closers.

SUMERIAN SLEW(12) debuted on the winter solstice of 2013 where he came home with the bronze medal on the dirt. Starting 2014, he won his second race by a head, also on the dirt. For his dirt finale, he showed by a bunch of lengths in a NW2L and moved on to the lawn to be a major success. He was then nosed out in a NW3L but took it in stride with a three length win next time out. He won again in a NW4L but didn’t do so again until his 2015 debut three starts (those 3 including two stakes) later. He then went on a three length winning stretch which was topped off by a one length stakes victory. Looking two starts back he understandably couldn’t catch the leader GIDDY. Finally, in his last start he took home another stakes trophy by about a length. Stakes steppers can sometimes be a good angle and especially when you have a closer in a race like this. The DAIWA MAJOR (JPN) colt rounds out the contest (and the second half of given’s hidden entry) from the outside and provides some nice value at 9-1.



Longshot play- GALILEO’S IMPACT #1

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The Irish Derby G1- $1.5 M

 Posted by at 1:20 pm  Previews
Jun 262015

The Irish Derby GI- $1.5M

Saturday, June 27, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST | Ireland (IRE)
Grade 1 | $1,500,000 | 3 Year-Olds | 12 Furlongs | Firm Turf

HAPPY ROCK BURG(1) is the unproven son of SOCIETY ROCK, and I say that because he’s a three time winner, none of which are stakes races or even unconditioned allowances. His speed figures are up to par however, his most recent race in the form of a one length victory in a NW4x allowance with a 99 rating. The colt is trying something new but isn’t the only competitor here trying the same thing. He’s hard to recommend but les111 is trying to see what the horse can truly do. He’s 18-1.

GOT THIS ON LOCKE(2) weakened late in the Irish 2000 Guineas to finish tenth by nine, probably due to the early speed duel he engaged in with EAT ‘EM UP YUM YUM. Looking at the speed here, he should get away clear and he’s hoping to score the early command with ease. We’ll have to see how the extra four furlongs affects his running style but the closers are very strong in this field. It could be tough for the son of ENGLISH CHANNEL to hang on for mtk even if the 7-1 shot manages slow fractions.

HOT COMEBACK(3) took five races to break his maiden, and finally did with a 92 speed rating. He came back and dropped a dud in his NW2, finishing third by four. He’s got the numbers of a GI winner, but it’s probably too soon for this son of PLEASANTLY PERFECT. An allowance win would be a step in the right direction before the graded stakes level for this one. Tullbrink throws this one in a test.

THE ONE TERMER(4) comes off a great two-hole trip but couldn’t seal the deal as late-closing ASPIRING SKIES beat him even after he passed the leader. He came second in that try, the Three Riders STK. After two consecutive seconds, the bargain bred son of WORTHADD shows that he was a pleasant surprise for meguire in what was not a guaranteed superstar to say the least. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, but he probably won’t be one of my top three in a full field of 14.

ALPTRAUM(5) is slightly more promising than others in the ALW-GI category, but it’s still not favourable form. The DALAKHANI colt looks to continue on a three race win streak which begun in his fifth maiden try where he got it done by about five. He continued with a win in his NW2 and then NW3. His best looking effort was his most recent, with a 104 rating and a three and a half length win. Another interesting fact is that for the past five starts, the colt has been at Queensland and returns to Ireland where his first two races were held. He’s not the best of this bunch but has a fair shake. 10-1 is the price if you’re looking to make a play.

CEFIRO(6) was my third choice in the Japanese Derby G1 and he proved me right, rounding out the triactor beaten six lengths. The GALILEO colt tried 12 furlongs in the Japanese Derby G1 for the first time, and might have gotten there if late closing AMERICAN ROUGE and MAGRIB hadn’t had so much left in the tank. This one is a nice play here, with a fair chance. He might end up in my top three again at the odds he’s ever hovering at- 6-1.

DUBRIC(7) surged late in the covenant Derby De English but fell short to finish fourth by seven, but achieved a lifetime best 107 speed rating. My biggest concern is the 19 days rest the son of DUBAWI gets here. It’s tough for horses to get out there and repeat or even improve on lifetime marks, especially on 19 days off. This one’s usual late charge may not be as effective here, but I hope he proved me wrong. You’ll find 6-1 on the stockton trained colt.

BEGIN THE GAMES(8) came on late for a two length win in the Italian Derby G1, which makes me want to consider taking a second look at the allowance steppers in this one. He came off a two and a quarter length win in his NW3L and had the same statistics in the Derby- win by two and a quarter and a 105 rating. It’s not easy to repeat win efforts from and allowance and a G1 consecutively. This is a great horse, ever-improving, and has a great chance for his second G1 win in a row, and millionaire status. Loving the 10-1 price.

MIGHTY IN BATTLE(9) made a late play in the Derby de English G1 but came up short to finish third by six. He’s among the most inexperienced with six career starts but has already been proven to be a good horse, with a win in the Benelux Colts Turf Final, a second place effort in the Derby Stud Trail G2 and a third in the Derby de English G1. This one has a good shot here, and the son of NATHANIEL should be in the thick of things in the stretch. A ridiculous 11-1 on this hills trained colt.

SINGIN’ N’ DANCIN(10) is another allowance stepper, and this one won his NW3 despite only having one win before that date. The son of DANEHILL DANCER was bred to be a champ, but it could be too soon for this magoo trainee. His most recent victory isn’t much to go on, but it is a good sign. He could be a surprise on Saturday but I’m under the impression that he’s currently not ready.

ZIM(11) also steps up from an allowance after winning his NW2 by two lengths with a 95 speed figure. On his fifth race, he broke his maiden with an 89 SP#. The son of GALILEO has a slightly nicked breed with NIJINSKY II as a DS and NORTHERN DANCER as a DDS, but nicked breedings do work out a lot. So, another case of non-readiness, and 29-1 odds on this allowance stepper.

CROSS UP MONTE(12) looks to improve on a superb career best 106 speed figure in his NW3 win by three and a half lengths. This son of CAPE CROSS looks to be the best of the allowance steppers and may actually be ready. While I don’t think he’ll win the race here, especially looking at his two bad stakes performances in a row four and five races back, I think he could get a check and might be a good bet next time. He’s 9-1 out of the calvin barn.

DOWNPOUR CAUSEWAY(13) represents the only filly in the race and the morning line favourite after her crushing performance in the Diana Grand Prix G1, winning by four and getting a 105 rating. That extended her three race win streak, previously winning the Mother Teddy Turf Filly Route STK and the Commander Jericho Turf Route STK and the POUR MOI filly looks to extend it to four in a win over the boys. She looks to be in top form and deserves to be the 5-1 morning line top choice. I’d even say 5-1 is an overlay.

SEA MY HORN(14) rounds out this full field after his lifetime best in his NW3 allowance. He won by over three lengths with a 102 speed figure and improves every time. But, I have to raise that ever present question of- is he ready yet? The answer could be yes like so many others, but like so many others I’ll say the SEA THE STARS colt needs a little more growing room. Another good bet next time, once we’ve seen what he can do. The 11-1 shot comes from the a2912 barn.



Longshot play- SINGIN’ N’ DANCIN(10)

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Jun 192015

Eight Want To Be On Cloud Nine In The Saint Cloud Grand Prix

Deauville-FR(DEA) | Saturday, June 20, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $750,000 | 12 Furlongs | 4 Year Olds And Over | Firm Turf

FOOTHILLS(1) is the well bred son of MONTJEU who hopes to improve in his second start since a three month layoff after a poor effort in the CEO Classic G3. In his penultimate start though, he turned on the jets in the Lex Luther Turf Endurance STK and left them in the dust. The five year old is a grade three winner from Ireland and wants to notch his first graded stakes win since last August where he took the Freer Stakes G3. My concern is the extra two month waiting period balata gives him this time. Watch the morning workouts if you can, this 6-1 could produce a nice race off a good work.

TETE MAINE(2) is another making it’s second start since a layoff. This one is slightly more serious however with the layoff stretching six months. The fourth place finish he gave us last time is an indicator that this 5yo son of DUKE OF MARMALADE out of G1 winner SADDLE TETECATE is ready to rock once he gets his groove back (which should be here). Looking back to September 2014 this horse won the Europe Classic by a length and is the only GI winner. I think this horse is raring to go and with a clean break we could see a good shot at a win. He’s the co-second choice at 5-1 for racelord.

IMPERIALISTA(3) is a former $25,000 claimer but has obviously left that life behind with a dominant three length win in the Carlsbad Lessons G2 a month ago. Xelmirez must be kicking himself for letting this gem go, with two stakes wins (Kingstonian Turf Challenge by two lengths and the Always Improving Turf Challenge by a length) and a G2 victory to boot, I’d say this was one good investment by gowans. The SAVABEEL colt improves every time and is a nice play here. The punters make the horse the 4-1 co-favourite.

SYMBOLIQUE(4) was too fatigued to finish his charge in the 16 furlong The Second Henry G2 and finished fourth beaten eleven. You can also excuse the 5-Series G1 loss in April to discomfort on the mildly damp turf. This one’s tough to work out, and has only ever hit twice at twelve furlongs in six tries. The son of SYMBOLI KRIS S out of G1 winning mare MON COUP will presumably drop back at the beginning and surge late. Since AWESOME SECRET carries the only speed the running style might be hindered here, but I think he’ll get a check of some kind. 8-1 makes him the longest shot on the board.

LAWLESS INSOMNIAC(5) has a great name but hasn’t shown up in two grade two starts thus far (the Corridor and the Randy Vet). The LAWMAN filly represents the only girl power in the race but will need a performance like the Very Fine Handicap G3 with a 113 speed rating where she won to compete here. This might be out of the 4yo’s reach yet but you never know. She could surprise on Sunday. However, she provides no value at co-chalk at 4-1.

OLLIE’S BEST(6) had a bland performance in the M-Class G2 with a fourth by nine. This is a son of SEPOY out of G1 winner FANTASTIC OLLIE and is graded placed- second by a length in the Guilaume G2 last year. He also ran second by a length in two stakes in a row last year but has never actually taken a trophy home. He also destroyed the rest in a NW5L ALW in two starts back, winning by ten. He’s hard to recommend here seeing his M-Class G2 performance. 5-1 is not much value.

KEPLER RED WAY(7) was another competitor in the M-Class G2, but finished better than OLLIE’S BEST with a second by three. Before that, the son of GIANT’S CAUSEWAY won The Sundown Mile G2 by just under a length. This is another that flies home from the back, but whose running style may be hindered by the lack of action up front. I can definitely see an in-the-money finish on Saturday with the extra furlong added from last time. Bobo could be a happy man tomorrow. His horse is 5-1.

rounds out the field after not being able to catch WU TANG ADJACENT in the Second Henry G2 and falling short by four, but romped away in the CEO Classic G3 two starts back. Looking at that race, you can say that 12 furlongs suits this one quite nicely and a return to the distance could help the son of FRANKEL. I’d give nextbonus’s bay colt a fair a shot as any in this. He’ll need to step up a bit, but I think he could do it.



Longshot play-SYMBOLIQUE(4)

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Jun 012015

Japanese Derby $3.0M

Japan(JPN) | Sunday, May 31, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST | Grade I
$3.0M | 3 Year-Olds | 12 Furlongs | Firm Turf

STOP THE CLOCKS(1) is one of the two graded winners in the race. He hit the Premie Champion Stakes G3 last June, by two lengths. Now he’s into his three year old season, and has shown a little improvement, but in this fairly weak field he could possibly take home his first G1. The son of OASIS DREAM tried 3 G1s in a row to start off 2015, and was a fair back third in the Japanese 2000 Guineas G1. Not much else since December 2014 where he won the High Devil Turf Juvenile stakes where he won by two lengths. He gets the longest race of his life here, which means he’s eligible to improve. The positive rider switch to F Gossett helps his chances even more. 6-1 is a pretty fair price.

HEADS UP CADET(2) is very unproven. His one stake race (The Niagra Falls stakes) means little considering it was on dirt, a surface we now know is unfavourable to this horse. So discounting that, we have a horse who hasn’t won since November in a NW2L allowance. This is a pretty good earner and a possible stakes winner, but there’s not enough to go on. I’d leave out this son of DUBAWI at a low 7-1. Scoobysnak has high hopes.

SQUEEL(3) took long enough to break his maiden. Seven races, getting closer every time and finally winning in a local bred in Febuary with a good 90 SP#. However, the one-time winner from HEART’S CRY failed badly in his most recent try, eleventh by fifteen in a non-winners of three. He’s not in form, and probably doesn’t have the talent, I’m sorry to say. This definitely wasn’t the right move. A try on the dirt could do him good. 32-1 from corza isn’t enough to take a second glance.

LONDEN(4) was at one point, a $12,500 maiden claimer, then two races later, a $75,000 claimer. Blackhelen probably regrets his actions now, as his NEDAWI bred colt won his most recent allowance by just under four lengths and is now 11-1 to be a G1 winner. This is another one making a big step, but if you’re going to go from ALW to G1, you’ll want to see a win by four. As much as I love the story, this one it unproven too. There’s not enough incentive to bet him, but I’ll be cheering him on for coolk7.

TARANTO(5) comes off a head-scratcher of a performance in the South African Derby G2, where he was a good third by four. The former $75,000 claimer (originally bred by rioja and claimed by derekcarlson) had lost by twenty in a marathon in the penultimate start and I suppose disliked sixteen furlongs. Anyways, the FRANKEL colt is in form and in a good spot to take home the lion’s share of three mill. I like the horse and the story, could be in my top three.

CEFIRO(6) finished a game third by four in The Hogwarts G2 last time after a second in the Force Stakes G3. Keep in mind that the extra furlong here can’t hinder either. More upside in the fact that in the past two races, he’s had the furthest outside post and the six hole here is a huge relief. This is a proven one and while he didn’t have humble beginnings like some others here (being by GALILEO and winning his debut in 81 Sp# fashion), he does command 5-1 respect. Definitely a good horse, with a bid shot here.

SMOOTH BREEZE(7) has mainly been a hot race earner up until March where he failed in subsequent stakes starts. This is another huge step and from a hot race makes it even tougher. The three extra furlongs he gets in this one could help, but I don’t think there’s much incentive to rush to the windows for this SO YOU THINK colt. He’s an allowance winner, and possible stakes competitor, but I think this is too high a step for this one. 16-1 is pretty fair.

AMERICAN ROUGE(8) comes of a huge effort in the South African Derby G2, where he won by a big three lengths. That win continues the three race streak, and the AMERICAIN colt has never looked better. The twelve furlong distance looks to suit the colt and I like this one. There’s not much more to say. 10-1 is a ludicrous price and I’d be betting a big sum on this colt. Probably my top pick for exit12farm.

SNITHILL(9) never left seventh in the Premium Pairing G3 last time out. This is the most experienced of the bunch and has had a seasoned career so far. Four G3 starts, two G2 starts and two G1 starts including an eleventh in the BB Juvenile Turf. The win of that lot came from the Grand Critter G2 back in October by two lengths. Not much has happened since though, with the only win being a five length triumph in an allowance in March. I think he has a good shot, but he’ll need to trip out to get it done. The SNITZEL colt looks okay, but 7-1 is a little low.

WHAT IS PROPERTY(10) is the least experienced of the group and came up a length short in his most recent try (third, NW3L ALW). Despite the superb breeding (by SEA THE STARS), he hasn’t shown anything exciting so far. Two wins on fairly easy races isn’t much reason to put down a bet. I think it would be tough to get a check for this one and 14-1 is an underlay.

DATA KING(11) ran second by two in his most recent start, the Twice Told Tale Turf Route stakes, and provided a 99 speed rating in that one. Jockey Z Ayya, who’s been with the DATA LINK colt for each of his wins will not fly into Japan for a shot at the jockey’s share of $1,800,000. Instead he’ll get M Clooch. He’s a good horse, but not paying Z Ayya money for the plane ticket is a mistake. 10-1 seems about right.

MAGRIB(12) put in a quarter length victory in the Jargon Stakes G3. That puts the win streak to two races but without the help of regular rider O Joe, this one might be a little confused. Other than that, the son of TEOFILO looks to be in form. Another upside is that the extra two furlongs aids this colts closing running style. I could see him winning at 8-1 but losing O Joe is a hit. We’ll see how he does.

RETRO TECHNO(13) took the Confederacy Turf Route stakes last time out by over two lengths and is eligible to improve, providing he keeps to the mid-pack racing style. He’s showing improvement with the last race 105 SP# and I think this is another with a pretty good chance, but rider MJ Kelly will have to get everything out of the NATHANIAEL in this contest. 8-1 is about right.

ZIEMA(14) rounds out the field. This horse had a pretty easy time of it in a marathon allowance NW2L where he won by three. Many things change here though, the grass is now firm, he loses four furlongs and steps up four classes. Looking at the only stake race, the Woettes Delight Turf Juvenile stakes, and the sixth place finish, I think this son of AL KAZEEM has to work extra hard to be close here. Not in my top three at 37-1.


2- MAGRIB #12
3- CEFIRO #6

Longshot Play- TARANTO #5

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May 152015

14 Gladiators Race For The $750k Italian Derby

Saturday, May 16, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST | Italy (ITY)
Grade I | 11 Furlongs | Firm Turf | 3 Year-Olds

DARK SPRINGFLY(1) comes of a disappointing performance in the No Allies G2, in which he struggled the whole race and finally ending up sixth by thirteen. He’s been consistently winning allowances and has already racked up a good chunk of change, at an 84 average speed rating in those allowances. On the other hand the son of WANTED (AUS) has never really come that close in a regular stakes race, his best being a fourth by five, his record not being any better in graded stakes. Unfortunately for deeprock5, this one isn’t a good bet at the moment. Even 13-1 is an overlay.

REQWIEM(2) most recently saw his first stakes action with a second in the Niner Sew Turf Route. Up until then, he had only won a single allowance (a heavily conditioned one, might I add (NW3L and locally bred). The upside is that the SHOCKING (AUS) colt receives a small distance extension now which possibly could have been used to get up in time. Either way this is a big step up for the colt, but not impossible. Lots of good horses get their start that way. Bezstables hopes he does at 18-1.

TETE AMIZMIZ(3) takes a huge step here, from the allowance NW3L class to a grade one. The SHAMARDAL bay colt scraps regular jockey E Bernstein after learning of his problem with alcohol, grabbing N Labreche. His fairly easy victories in the allowance class (his most recent was by a length in a 102 rating) mean very little here in the huge step up. Personally I would have tried him in a regular stakes, but maybe kartago just wants to see what the colt can do, especially because this is a fairly weak race. The punters make him 10-1 on his test.

BEGIN THE GAMES(4) is another one who make a large step here, also from a NW3L allowance where he won by two with a 105. The son of GALILEO has a drop-in running style, he typically starts around fourth or fifth and makes his way up, which the extra 1.5 furlongs will aid here. This colt has a little more reason to try a G1, but it’s still an enormous step in competition. Again, the bookies give 10-1 on a big test, even with the high-rated J Wilson aboard.

PERENNIAL BEAUTY(5) is the only G1 winner in the race as he took the Saint Cloud G1 last fall as a two year-old. More recently, he fell from the lead in the stretch, ending up fifth by four and a half in the Manatee Classic G3. He’s disappointed in two races as a three year-old, the other being the VERMONT IS 4 LOVERS G1 (seventh by six). Unfortunately, he gets a lower percentage jockey than last in D Givins (as opposed to X Saxon). He’s 9-1 but looks out of form. We’ll see if noredemption2 stepped up the training regiment for the son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO.

DIAMOND OASIS(6) has failed in both attempts as a sophomore, after his running style had him start around sixth as opposed to starting last in his freshman season. If you look at his last two efforts as a two year-old, he won two stakes in a row by two or more lengths. If fellow writer gcliffo told rider B Scott to hold him back a little more, especially with a longer distance, I see no reason why the son of OASIS DREAM (GB) couldn’t blow by in the stretch for the grade one win. Could be my longshot play at 10-1.

DISASTER X(7) was raced extensively in his two year-old campaign, but only because it appeared that he was a low claimer, at one point entering the $12.5k range which he won and started winning starter allowances. Eventually, amir realized he was better and threw him into allowances, which he won a few of. However, he has yet to grab a non-conditioned purse, but finished in the money all three times. Looking at his talent though, I think he’s in over his head here. A possible stake winner, but the POUNCED colt will have some trouble here. Big odds of 22-1. On a personal note, I’m glad this one worked out. With a name with DISASTER X you knew it had to be good.

CAFE DE LA REYS(8) conquered the Hawks Heir Turf Route last time out, winning by a considerable two and a half lengths. The REY DE CAFE handsome grey colt seemed to appreciate the longer distance of nine furlongs, which is probably why he was failing around the seven furlong length- not enough running room. The drop-out racing style will be helped more by the even longer eleven furlongs this time, and who knows, this colt could be a marathoner if he doesn’t win here. Another possible longshot play at 14-1.

LIMIT BACK(9) moves off the Desert Sky Turf route where he finished third beaten six. The son of ALANDI had previously been unsuccessful at the stakes level being an non-factor both times. After only winning three allowances before that (locally bred), this decent performance may just be a spark of luck for the brown colt. Trainer hebbe will really need to have worked the colt well to have a shot in here, or maybe he’s changed. 13-1 seems fair.

DARK SPEEDNG(10) was far back in his only stakes start, a non factor finishing thirteenth by ten. In addition, the BRILLIANT SPEED colt has only won a single non-maiden allowance, on the good turf. It is an even larger step up for the colt, considering he has trouble even showing in an allowance. This colt has never topped a 90 speed figure and has his work cut out for him here. I’m very doubtful of this one, he’s the longest shot of 31-1. Darkstars has high hopes.

GIANTSAREHERE(11) is a stakes winning colt out of GIANT’S CAUSEWAY who has raced in ten races already. He also has a seasoned graded stakes record, them accounting for half of his starts. In his best he finished third by five in the Premie Champion Stakes G3 He’s also eligible to improve here as he comes off dirt from his last race where he ran third by three. In his last race on turf in the Their Dances Turf Route stakes he ran a game second by a neck. This guy is loaded with potential and he earns his 6-1. As good a shot as any here for caliracing.

LIGHTNING ROUTE(12) comes off a big win in the A. P. Poll Turf Special stakes where he won by a length. The son of POINT GIVEN took awhile to break his maiden, finally winning in his sixth start with a 90 speed figure. He then went on to win the standard ‘my-horse-broke-its-maiden-lets-put-it-in-a-NW2L-race’ which must have furthered mrxrayz’ confidence. Finally, he took the stake extending the win streak to three. The colt seems to improve with the more distance he gets, and 11 furlongs is quite a bit. I think he can manage it. No love for the consecutive winner here, he is 12-1. Another possible longshot play.

CADDILAC SOLDIER(13) is fresh off a huge win in the No Allies G2, taking home a bunch of money. The son of SOLDIER HOLLOW (GB) also competed in the covenant VERMONT IS 4 LOVERS G1 where he was fourth beaten three and a half. This one was also a Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf contender, but he only finished eighth by six. He also won The Founders G3 last fall by a length. Since he romped to a three length victory, I see no reason why he can’t win here. A deserving 7-2 racing for gradetwo.

TETE AGUELMOUR(14) improves with each start. He can consistently win allowances, most recently a NW5L by a big four lengths. But is this the right move from him? Again we’ve got a huge step up made a little smaller by the fairly weak field. On the upside ROCK OF GIBRALTAR colt has only lost his debut where he finished second. I think he’ll be game but a win is probably unlikely. He’s getting fourth choice respect at 8-1. We’ll see it deeprock5 has trained him well enough to extend the five race win streak.



Longshot play- LIGHTNING ROUTE #12

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Apr 102015

Road To The Blugrass- The $1.5 Million Arkansas Juvenile

Arkansas(AR) | Saturday, April 11, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 3 Year Olds | 9 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

UNO FORTUNE(1) didn’t deliver in the Felipe Alou G2, seeming to be a non-contender. On the other hand, it would appear that he was making an effort to close after the 3rd call. If you were an optimist (or lenny) you would say that the son of MACHO UNO did appear to win the Danzig With Sal Dirt Route Stakes with some noticeable ease. But as I am supposed to be indifferent, I’ll say that he has a fair shake at 10-1.

BULBDINI(2) tried for the front last time in the All Saints Derby Prep but was shot down, forcing him back the entire race making him a non-factor. In the Good Cow G3 on Febuary 7, he got his way and stayed well only slipping slightly at the end back to 2nd. This is the third race of the BERNARDINI colt’s 3 year old season, and hopefully lordpye’s stern words will smarten up jockey J Biagi this time at 8-1.

FATAL’S EMPIRE(3) came out swinging in his second stake start last time, beating ‘em in record fashion- the record being his own 110 speed figure. I must say that I was impressed with the EMPIRE MAKER colt’s last race, he really showed some promise. If he wins this one I see no reason that he can’t be a real contender in the Bluegrass for fb Stables. He’s 7-1.

UNDERSTEER TED(4) was led by jockey R Rickford to what one might call a perfect trip last time, leading to his acquisition of his ‘Stake Winner’ badge. He also finally cracked 100 in the SP# column, with a 103. However, some doubt comes up when one sees that he was swamped in the Sam’s Town Delta Jackpot G3. On the other hand, his last race was fairly convincing, so I’m undecided on the son of UNDERSTATEMENT in this one, at 17-1 for tysyndicate.

EXCELLIR(5) is um… Interesting? Owner leestroyer was so confident in this horse’s breeding, that he started him in a stake race. Clearly he has a bond with his owner, as he would not allow them to look overconfident, as he won his race. Then he won again, and again. Is he unstoppable? Not so much as he finally put the BERNARDINI colt in a G3 an he lost by only a neck.His most recent triumph was the Entrails Flying Stake which he won by 2. He’s a horse unlike any other I’ve seen. I feel like he’s got a good shot on Saturday despite him being 11-1.

AWESOMISM(6) has a great name. In his last start, he was second by only a length and a quarter in The Buccaneer Derby G3. However, he’s actually only won a maiden race. Despite this he looks great, never finishing worse than 3rd, and never more that 4 lengths behind. This is another who was started in a stake, though it was more of a residency competition. The horse hasn’t hit his peak yet, and he’ll be superb when he does, but for now he is 12-1 for raceck.

PUBLIK APPEARANCE(7) tried out turf in his past two races, winning an allowance, but finishing 4th by 3/4 in the Forty Wool Turf Route Stakes. Wait… 13-1? That’s an insulting price for the son of DISTORTED HUMOR. Back on the dirt, he was 5th by three and a half in the Movieland Futurity G1 which was loaded with talent. In the Sparkling Wine Stakes G1 he missed by just 2 lengths. This horse is just waiting to explode, and Saturday may very well be the night. Trainer xledwith06 should be emptying his bank account on odds of 12-1.

CITY BIRD CADET(8) was in the running in the All Saints Derby Prep G1 but was still back 3 lengths at the wire, in sixth. In his penultimate race, the Sleepy Fan G2, he was only a length back at the wire. With a small distance extension and perhaps a slight change in riding style could get the job done for the son of CITY ZIP. If nuthouse ordered jock V Gardner to be a little more agressive, he could get the job done at 7-1.

BLUE GATORADE(9) has had some trouble. Since his 3/4 length 2nd place finish in the Legoland, dochman5 has put him in to G2s. In neither of which he came close, finishing 10th by 13 and 11th by 15 in each. Jockey A Scheper hasn’t been doing him any favours either. Considering the son of STAY THIRSTY can’t win a stake, I simply don’t think he’s cut out for this. 13-1 is an underlay.

MR. AD(10) took The Buccaneer Derby last time on the good dirt. While the son of AD INFINITUM looks sharp, he’s 12-1. I mean, before the Buccaneer Derby he took the Amad Deal Dirt Memorial, I don’t see many faults to this horse besides the lack of G1 experience. T Loesch will get the ride for the first time for shortplay.

READY TO TRAVEL(11) came pretty close in the Felipe Alou G2, after the switch to top jockey T Ace. Although, the some of MORE THAN READY was unable to get a stakes win before that- and therefore still doesn’t. He did grab a 107 speed rating last time though, which probably aided stockswami4’s decision to out him in this race. He’s got an okay chance here, and jockey T Ace certainly doesn’t make his odds higher (which are 12-1).

ALL RANKED UP(12) started his derby campaign 2 weeks ago in the All Saints, in which he wasn’t the best. In his penultimate start, however, he did take the Risen Star G3. The son of MIDSHIPMAN already has two G3 victories under his belt. Though the two G1s in his career do bother me, they were both very tough races, while this one is a little lighter. He shows some value at 8-1.

THE HORSE GATE(13) took the Journeyman Dirt Route Stakes last time, in record 108 SP# fashion. Trainer sansa gave him the green light for the Arkansas after seeing that number. I’m not sure on this one though. He hasn’t had a taste of graded stakes action before, and the SCAT DADDY colt may be overwhelmed. We’ll see if he can keep up to his speed rating here at 9-1.

ALY HARBOR(14) was actually claimed for 25k back in November gowanspa in November. I have no idea why catalina would put him in any claimer, as the son of ROCKPORT HARBOR was tearing it up on the dirt at the time, and continues to now, as he just notched his first G3 victory in the Rebel Yell. The horse looks great and was a superb claim from gowanspa. He’s 10-1.


2- MR. AD #10

Longshot Play- READY TO TRAVEL 12-1

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