First, a quick recap of last week’s race. My prediction was pretty accurate early on, as Tapendereya and Discomfortable battled for the early lead, with Tapendereya sticking a nose in front.  I likewise predicted that the speed duel up front would creating an opening for one of the closers to sneak through.  Unfortunately, I picked the wrong one, as it was OG Tapit Cat ($16.60) that came flying late, picking off horses one by one.  Eventually he reached the frontrunners and blew past them like they were standing still, drawing off to win by 1-3/4 and earning a 107 SP.  The pace duel didn’t seem to distract the 2 frontrunners much though, as Discomfortable managed to outrun Tapendereya for 2^nd, while Tapendereya had a big enough margin to hang on for 3^rd.

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This week, the Future Stars Series heads back to the Emerald Isle, Ireland, for a NW3L Allowance for turf sprinters, going 7 furlongs.  The field of 12 is:

#1 – Blanco Reef (Cape Blanco (IRE) x Lease a Wire [Soft Falling Rain x Speightstown]) – Owned by atw9 – 7/1

Race Record: 10:2-1-3; $82,566

Race History: Blanco Reef began his career in MSWs, but made the jump to winners and broke his maiden in a local NW1y allowance in his 4^th career start.  From there, it was an ambitious jump to a G3 at 9f on the turf (after having never run farther than 7f), but the effort didn’t go well, so Blanco Reef dropped back down to the local NW2L level.  There, his first try at 8f saw him tire to 3^rd, so he cut back to 7f where he broke through with a 1-3/4 length victory and an 87 SP.  He kicked off his 2019 campaign in a 7f turf stakes effort, where he set the pace early but was outrun and finished 4^th of 5.  From there, Blanco Reef dropped back down in class to the NW3L level, and he’s been there for the last 2 races, each time setting the pace early before being outrun late, first at 6f and then at 6.5f.  His most recent race, the 6.5f effort, saw him hold on to second place, earning a career high 94 SP.  Blanco Reef will stretch back out slightly here, to the distance where he’s won twice.

Pedigree: Cape Blanco, the 2010 Irish 3yo of the year and 2011 Turf Eclipse Award winner, currently stands in Japan, though his most recent real life crop is from his US-siring days, where he ranked #137 in 2018.  In the sim, his 3yo crop currently ranks #124 overall, with 32 winners from 53 runners scoring at a 17% rate.  The big star from the crop is Momentary Triumph, a 3-time graded placed filly that won The Diana Trail-G2 at 11f on the turf in her last race by 3-1/4 lengths. Cape Blanco’s sim foals are much like their sire in running style, as they typically prefer turf routes (75% on turf, 62% in routes).  The distance is a little higher than his 7.74 real life AWD, though that distance may be suppressed by having US runners (the number may increase once his first Japanese crop gets underway).  Blanco Reef is the only foal from 6yo he-mare Lease A Wire, a winner of 8 races in 30 career starts.  Among those 8 wins are 3 stakes victories, all occurring in turf sprints in the 5.5f-6f range.  Blanco Reef takes after his “mother”, who was a super-sprinter that had a ton of speed and liked to use it early, with most of his wins coming when he was on the lead or fighting for it.

Expectations: Blanco Reef has a ton of speed and wants to use it early.  He has been fast enough to set the pace at the stakes (and even the route graded stakes) levels, and he set a blistering pace in each of his last 2 starts, at 6f and 6.5f.  So expect to see Blanco Reef on the front end here.  The real question is whether he can carry that speed over 7 furlongs.  He’s shown the ability to win at this distance before, but his last few races have shown signs of tiring late, and he certainly won’t get an easy pace today.  Still, he’s a solid horse and a possible exotics contender.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – French Barbara (Siyouni x Diesis x Montjeu) – Owned by musclebarn – 29/1

Race Record: 8:2-1-0; $33,936

Race History: French Barbara has never quite lived up to the aspirations of his owner through 8 career starts, most of them occurring in turf sprints.  After breaking his maiden in a 4.5f dirt hot race back in February 2018, he made the switch to turf and hasn’t looked back since.  However, his only success in this type of race was in career race #3, when he went off at even money in a 4 horse NW1x at 4.5f on the turf and stuck his head in front at the wire.  His only notable race since then was 2 starts back, his 2019 debut, where French Barbara again took on a 4 horse field, this time at 7f on a yielding turf course, and popped a career high 83 SP while running 2^nd the entire way around the track.  French Barbara comes into this race off of a last place finish in a field of 7 at 7.5f, where he finished behind today’s rivals Petah Tikva (2^nd – 96 SP) and Hempriggs (6^th – 84 SP), earning a 79 SP (he also ran 12^th in a 6.5f turf race against Turns and Burns (7^th) back in November 2018).

Pedigree: Siyouni, the #19 ranked European sire in 2018, was a G1-winning turf miler in France and currently stands there for $100,000.  His 2018 sim crop is currently his best sim class, owing to a solid stud career thus far, and the crop currently ranks #49 overall, with 61 winners from 96 runners to date, winning at a 19.5% rate.  Among the foals are 10 stakes winners (4 graded stakes), led by 2018 Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf-G1 (and multiple-G1) winner Light So Bright.  Siyouni’s sim foals heavily favor turf, with 79% of earnings coming on turf, and are pretty evenly split between sprinters and routers (53% sprints), which lines up with his real life racing preference and his real AWD of 7.86.  Most of his top sim 3yos have excelled at the mile distance thus far, though a couple have sprinted well and one G3 winner has found success at 10.5f, with all of those successes coming on the turf.  The Siyouni x Diesis cross has been used twice in the sim in the past 4 years.  The other instance was with 6yo retired mare Galactic Quest, whose sole win in 12 career starts was in a $12.5K maiden claimer at 8f on the turf.  The Montjeu DDS pairing is a little more common for Siyouni in the sim, with 10 3yos or older, though only 1 of those has won an allowance-level race to date (all in fields of 4 or local allowances).

Expectations: French Barbara’s past successes have come when battling for the lead, but it’s not a spot that he seems likely to get in this race.  More likely, he’ll sit midpack or towards the back in this race.  From there, it’s just a question of whether he can close ground in the race, but he looks a little overmatched here.  Pass.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – The Discovery (Oasis Dream (GB) x Perplex [Kingmambo x Dehere]) – Owned by grammy – 9/1

Race Record: 8:2-3-0; $84,332

Race History: It took a bit for The Discovery to snap into his grove, but he finally did it when breaking his maiden in his 4^th career race, back in October 2018 at 6f.  2 weeks later, he took a shot at a 6.5f stakes on the yielding turf, but came up empty and finished 7^th.  Dropping back to a local NW2L allowance at 7.5f-T next time out, The Discovery capitalized, stalking the pace early and then moving late to win by 1-1/4 lengths.  He has been more patiently raced in 2019 though, with only 2 races thus far.  The first, at 6f, saw him use that same stalking style and move late, but he ran out of track and finished 2^nd, earning a career high 91 SP.  He stretched out significantly for his most recent race, back in early March, when he took on a local NW3L at 9.5f on the turf, setting an easy pace early but getting caught in the stretch and finishing 2^nd with a 90 SP.  The Discovery cuts back to sprinting here as he tries to regain his place in the winner’s circle.

Pedigree: Oasis Dream, the 2002 champion 2yo in England and the #28 ranked European sire in 2018, was a multiple-G1 winning sprinter in his career and currently stands in England for $30,000.  His 2018 sim crop is a little better than the real life counterpart, as they rank #12 overall, with 103 winners from 158 runners to date, winning at an 18% rate.  Among those horses are 11 stakes winners (4 graded stakes winners), most of whom have hit their groove in turf miles.  Oasis Dream’s sim foals are turf lovers (72% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even split in distances (52% routes), in line with his real world 7.55 AWD.  The Discovery is the 6^th of 7 foals from 15yo mare Perplex, winner of 5 races in her 14 race career.  4 of those wins came in her first 4 career starts, all at 8f on the dirt, which is where she spent most of her career.  However, her final 2 career races, at 7f and 9f, were both on the turf and they showed some potential on the sod as well (her final race was a 4 length victory at 9f on the turf).  Her foals, meanwhile, haven’t shown a consistent preference to one type of race.  Most of her foals have won sprint races, but the fastest speed figures have largely come in routes.  Two of her foals, Pslambeforthestorm (Dalakhani) and Perplexo (Pyro) are stakes placed, one in a 7f dirt sprint and one in a 8.5f turf route.

Expectations: The Discovery likes to sit just off the pace, which should be a good spot here given the speed duel up front.  From there, he has shown in the past that he can make some moves and catch those on the lead.  What’s troubling in his past races is when that move occurs.  His two wins have seen him take the lead before the stretch, possibly due to horses tiring on the lead.  I’m not sure if he’s gonna be able to get the lead that quickly in this race.  If he can, then he’s dangerous; only once in his career has he ever ceded a lead that he’s been given, and that was at 9.5f.  The question is whether he’ll ever be able to get there.  It’s possible.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Dawn De Vida (Dawn Approach (IRE) x Pan De Vida [Monsun x Miswaki]) – Owned by gcliffo22 – 8/1

Race Record: 8:2-5-0; $120,466

Race History: Dawn De Vida always seems to show up, but he’s also come down with a case of seconditis in his career, with 5 2nds in 8 starts.  4 of those came in the MSW ranks, all at 5-6.5f on the turf, as he continued to run close but never quite snag the lead.  That changed in September 2018 in career race #5, however, as he was able to stalk the pace and finally was able to run down the leads, pulling off to win by 1-3/4 lengths.  After closing out 2018 with his only off-the-board finish, Dawn De Vida has looked like a new horse in 2019.  His season debut came at 6.5 furlongs on the turf, where he dropped slightly further off the pace than normal but gained ground late, finishing 2^nd by 1-1/4 lengths.  But stretching out to 7.5f-T in his last race was a real boost, as he sat midpack early and came storming late, destroying the field and earning a career high 98 SP.  Dawn De Vida will cut back slightly to 7f here as he tries to continue his successful 3yo campaign.

Pedigree: Dawn Approach (IRE), the #80 ranked European sire in 2018, currently stands in Ireland for $15,000 and was the winner of the 2013 2000 Guineas and was a multiple G1-winner at 7-8f.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #56 overall, with 106 runners and 66 winners to date, winning at a 16% rate (a little lower than his 20% average).  Among those winners are 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Mourning Rainbow, has found graded stakes victory at 6f on the turf.  Dawn Approach’s sim foals are typically turf runners (75% of earnings on turf), and evenly split between sprints and routes (51% in routes), in line with his 7.83 AWD, though the top horses from his 3yo crop have been turf sprinters thus far.  Dawn De Vida is the 4^th of 5 foals from 9yo mare Pan De Vida, a winner of 6 races from 19 career starts.  Although she never quite reached the winner’s circle at the stakes level, she was 2-time stakes placed, once in a turf sprint and once in a dirt sprint.  She bounced back and forth on the turf and dirt, showing abilities on both, with 4 of her wins and her fastest speeds coming on dirt, but never finishing worse than 5^th on the turf (including 4 stakes tries).  Her foals have followed in her sprinting footsteps, with her first foal likewise being solid on both turf and dirt and her other allowance winner finding the turf more to her liking.  Dawn Approach has been bred to a Monsun mare 12 times in the past 4 years, with limited success to date.  Not including Dawn De Vida, only 1 of the other 10 3yo+ horses has picked up an allowance-level win, scoring 3 times in sprints (one on each of the 3 surfaces).  Only 5 of the 10 have broken their maidens, though that may be a symptom of each of the maiden 5 having 5 or fewer starts under their belts and each having raced better in routes than sprints.

Expectations: Dawn De Vida has been pretty consistent in his running style over his past few races, and there’s no reason to think that would change here.  Expect to see him sit midpack, about 3-5 lengths off of the pacesetters.  From there, it’s a matter of making his move at the right time.  It seems to take him a little longer to get going than others, but when he does finally start moving, look out.  The question is whether 7f will be long enough for him to get into that next gear.  If he can, he’s a strong contender, but he might ultimately prove to be a router.  Still, one to consider here.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Magic Carpet Vibes (Oasis Dream (GB) x Psychotic Vibes [Teofilo x Kingmambo]) – Owned by 4horsemen – 9/1

Race Record: 6:2-3-1; $76,285

Race History: Magic Carpet Vibes has been very consistent, never finishing off the board in 6 career races.  Two of those starts have been wins, both coming at 4.5f on the turf when he was a 2yo.  Since then, he’s been on an “every two months” schedule.  Magic Carpet Vibes kicked off his 3yo campaign by stretching out to an 8f turf race for the first time, and after sitting 2^nd in a field of 5 early, he raced pretty evenly throughout but never showed the forward momentum that he had in his prior sprints, and he finished 3^rd, earning an 86 SP, his best turf speed to date.  He got 2 months off leading into his most recent race, as he repeated at 8f but this time headed over to the polytrack for a local NW3L in Newmarket.  He seemed to take to the polytrack pretty well, as he stalked the pace early and moved in tandem with the other stalker in the race.  Unfortunately, that other stalker was ahead of Magic Carpet Vibes when they started their moves, and it ended up the same way with Magic Carpet Vibes finishing 2^nd, but he earned a career high 96 SP in the process.  Magic Carpet Vibes gets another 2+ months off here as he heads back to the turf and cuts back in distance to try and find the winner’s circle.

Pedigree: Oasis Dream’s information can be found under The Discovery above.  Magic Carpet Vibes is the first foal from 3yo mare Psychotic Vibes, a winner of 4 races in her 21 race career.  3 of those wins were at the allowance level, though only one came against non-local horses, but this $200K earner did a lot of damage in her career, hitting the board in 16 of those 25 starts.  She did most of that damage anywhere from 7f-9f on the turf, though her 3 turf wins and her fastest speed figures all came while routing.  Magic Carpet Vibes is the only foal by Oasis Dream from a Teofilo mare in the past 4 years, but the Oasis Dream cross has been common for Galileo, Teofilo’s sire, and the cross has produced an assortment of different runners, showing a very slight preference for routing.

Expectations: Magic Carpet Vibes is likely to try and stalk the pace here, sitting a couple of lengths back early.  That should set up well for him in this race.  But the real question is what to make of his most recent run.  Was this a sign of 3yo maturity, coming, as it did, in his 2^nd career start as a 3yo?  Or was it possibly a sign that Magic Carpet Vibes prefers the polytrack?  It’s interesting to see him come back to the turf here after such a successful poly run, so his owner must think it’s a sign of maturity.  If it is, watch out here.  But I’m a little skeptical.  Bet with caution.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – The Middle Man (Teofilo (IRE) x The Mediator (Symboli Kris S x Storm Bird) – Owned by liam20 – 6/1

Race Record: 7:2-3-0; $92,051

Race History: The sponsor of this race, The Middle Man comes into this race riding a bit of a hot streak.  After struggling in his first 2 sprints as a 2yo, he stretched out to turf routes and found his comfort zone at the front of the pack, setting the pace.  Unfortunately, he could never quite break through the maiden ranks, finishing 2^nd each time (by a combined 2 lengths).  But The Middle Man saw a huge improvement from 2yo to 3yo.  In his 3yo debut 2 starts back, he dropped back from routing to a 7f turf MSW here in Ireland.  He flashed some insane early speed in that race, opening up over 5 lengths on the field and then withstanding a late charge to win by a head, earning a career high 97 SP.  The 3^rd place horse in that race, who finished 5-1/4 lengths back in 3^rd, would stretch out and break his maiden next time out with a 102 SP.  Going up against winners in his most recent race, The Middle Man again showed early speed and none of his competitors ever stood a chance, as he opened up over 3-1/2 lengths before easing to a 2 length victory, earning a 96 SP.  He’ll try to make it 3 in a row today.

Pedigree: Teofilo, the 2006 Champion European 2yo Colt, was the #4 ranked European sire of 2018 and currently stands for $40,000 in Ireland.  His sim crop hasn’t quite caught up to his real life progeny, but the 2018 class is a solidly-ranked #43 overall, with 72 winners from 110 runners, winning at a 20% rate (above his 16.5% average).  The class includes 7 stakes winners to date, 3 of whom have found graded success (all in 9f-T G3 races), with the other 4 finding success while sprinting.  Teofilo’s sim foals heavily favor the turf, with 78% of earnings on the turf, and prefer routes as well (65% in routes), matching his real life 9.77 AWD.  The Middle Man is the 3^rd of 4 foals from 7yo mare The Mediator, a G2-winning router.  The Mediator won 7 of her 19 career starts, including the 2015 Full Moon Handicap-G2 at 9f on the turf, and added 3 additional stakes placings (1 G3) to that record.  Although she did most of her running, and earned most of her wins, in turf routes, her 2 fastest speed figures actually came in dirt routes (though she won neither race).  Her foals to date have both seen some success, though not to her level, with both older siblings to The Middle Man earning multiple allowance wins, one in turf routes and one in dirt routes.  Symboli Kris S mares have been sent to Teofilo 4 times in the past 4 years; 2 of the other 3 resulting foals have earned allowance wins, with both of those horses preferring routes (one on the turf, one on the dirt).

Expectations: The Middle Man is a burner who wants to take the lead and never look back.  Only once in his 7 race career has he not had the early lead (he was ½ length back early in that race), and it was, by far, his worst performance to date.  So expect The Middle Man to be out in front early.  From there, it’s just a question of the pace setup in the race.  He’s got the speed, but he won’t be alone out there, so the question is whether he’ll burn himself out early.  But he’s shown the ability to run quickly and hold off late charges before, so we’ll see if he can do it again.  A top candidiate.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Turns and Burns (Star Turn (AUS) x Just Sebring It [Sebring x Portland Player (NZ) – Owned by lindsypark – 16/1

Race Record: 6:2-0-1; $53,360

Race History: Turns and Burns has been slumping a bit recently.  After taking 2 of his first 3 starts, both at today’s 7f turf distance, Turns and Burns has failed to hit the board in his last 3 starts.  He set the pace and never looked back in his two victories, but failed to get the lead in his 4^th career race, a NW3L allowance, and then faded to 7^th (though he defeated today’s rival, French Barbara, who finished 12^th).  He took 3 months off and then made his 2019 debut in a 6 horse stakes race, at 5.5f on the turf, and managed to grab the lead early but was no match for the field off of the layoff, finishing last.  He stretched out to 8f for his most recent race, where he dueled for the lead early and briefly stuck a nose in front, but then couldn’t hang onto that lead and faded to 7^th, 10-1/2 lengths back.  The race earned his a career high 89 SP, however, showing an improvement over his 2yo days.  Turns and Burns cuts back to 7f here, where he’s 2 for 2 lifetime, to try and recapture the old magic.

Pedigree: Star Turn, a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter and son of Star Witness, entered stud in Australia in 2017 and currently stands for $22,000.  His freshman sim crop from 2018 currently ranks #172 overall, with 26 winners from 55 runners to date, winning at a 20% rate.  The number of runners may be low, but he already has 3 stakes winners from his first crop, all in turf sprints.  That’s where most of his runners have win to date, with 84% of his earnings on turf and 91% in sprints (which will likely come down as 3yos stretch out, though it should still strongly favor sprints).  Turns and Burns is the 5^th of 6 foals from 11yo mare Just Sebring It, a two-time stakes placed mare who won 4 of her 27 career starts.  She spent all but 2 of her career races in turf sprints, including both of her stakes placings and all 4 of her wins, with her best efforts coming in the shorter 5-6.5f sprints.  Her foals haven’t done much to date, with Turns and Burns’ 5 siblings going a combined 5 for 40 lifetime.  2 of those have picked up allowance wins, one in a turf sprint and one in a dirt sprint.  This is the only time that Star Turn has been bred to a Sebring mare in the past 4 years, and only 1 other horse has been bred to the More Than Ready DS line, a 2yo out of a Verrazano mare that ran 2^nd in her debut.

Expectations: Turns and Burns wants to be on the front end, and would set the pace if he could.  In this race though, there’s a ton of pace, and my suspicion is that Turns and Burns is not quite as fast out of the gate as a couple of other pacesetters in this field.  He’ll certainly push the front, but he may have to settle behind horses, which has not been a favorite place of his in the past.  Siding elsewhere.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – Petah Tikva (Dansili (GB) x Sunday Silence x Blushing Groom) – Owned by harrylanexp7 – 7/2 (f)

Race Record: 3:2-1-0; $53,955

Race History: The most lightly race horse in the field, Petah Tikva also goes off as your post-time favorite.  The reason for that is his 3 strong performances to date.  He debuted in December 2018 in a 6.5f turf MSW and stalked the pace early before pummeling them late, drawing off to win by 1-1/2 and earning an 88 SP.  He came back in late January to a local NW2L at 7f on the Newmarket turf, where he put on a show,  sitting just off the pace early back making an early move to grab the lead and never looking back.  That win earned him a career-high and field-high 99 SP, but even more impressive may be that the second place horse would go on to take his own allowance race next time out, and the 3^rd place horse would come back to pick up a stakes win in his next start, indicating some solid competition.  Petah Tikva’s most recent race, a 7.5f turf NW3L, saw another stalker get the first move on him and he had to settle for 2^nd, earning a 96 SP, but the winner of that race would come back to win a NW4L next time out with a 101 SP.  Petah Tikva also defeated today’s rivals Hampriggs (6^th) and French Barbara (7^th) in that race.  Petah Tikva cuts back ½ furlong here as he tries to make it 3 for 4 in his career.

Pedigree: Dansili, who was pensioned in 2018, was the #23 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His final sim crop, the 2018 class, currently ranks #15 in the sim, with 134 winners from 233 runners to date (winning at a 21% rate).  Dansili’s sim foals have a strong preference for turf, with 74% of earnings on turf, but are evenly split 50/50 in distances (a little different than his real life foals, as Dansili has a real life AWD of 9.2).  His 2018 sim crop includes only 1 graded stakes winner among 5 total stakes winners, but that 1 graded stakes winner is 4-time G1 winner (and #1 ranked 3yo turf sprinter) Battlefield Hero, who along with the bulk of Dansili’s 2018 class has shown a preference for sprinting on the turf.  It’s not very often that you see Dansili, a big time turf sire, paired with Sunday Silence, usually thought of as a dirt distance horse, especially in a scratch bred.  But it’s not completely unheard of; the Dansili x Sunday Silence combo was used 1 other time in the past 4 years.  That horse, 3yo Party On Saturday, has unfortunately not done much in his 7 career starts, as he’s still trying to break through his maiden.  The Blushing Groom DDS has been slightly more popular with Dansili, having been used 11 times in the past 4 years, with 1 stakes winner among them (whose stakes win came at 10.5f on the dirt, though her fastest races were actually in the 8-9f turf range).

Expectations: Petah Tikva may be the most lightly raced in the field, but he’s also the favorite for a reason.  The pace in this race sets up perfectly for his stalking style, as the duel up front has the chance to break down and there aren’t many closers in the field.  He has shown in his 3 races that he can hang with some high quality runners, and so he shouldn’t be intimidated by some of the accolades from this field.  The top choice.

Watch Level: High

#9 - Hempriggs (Almazor x My Kitty Dancer [Kitten’s Joy x Danehill Dancer]) – Owned by ­bperry7 – 17/1

Race Record: 19:2-3-2; $55,786

Race History: The most experienced runner in today’s field, this will be start #20 for Hempriggs, who has generally campaigned on a 2-3 week schedule since being acquired back in September 2018.  He has gone winless in 9 starts since taking up residence for his current owner.  The previous owner found success for Hempriggs at the claiming level, as he broke his maiden at 5.5f in a $35K maiden claimer and would go on to post a record of 2-2-1 in 5 turf sprint claimers for his prior owner.  After claiming race #3, Hempriggs was gelded by his former owner.  Following the acquisition, bperry moved Hempriggs up to the allowance level, but to limited success.  His best race to date came 3 starts back, in a 9.5f local turf NW3L in Deauville (FR), where he earned a career high 86 SP while stalking the pace early and then tiring to finish 5^th.  2 starts back, in a 7.5f turf NW3L, he finished 6^th with an 84 SP, trailing today’s rival Petah Tikva (2^nd) but defeating rival French Barbara (7^th).  Hempriggs comes into this race off of a last place finish in a 7f NW3L, where he tired to finish 12 lengths behind the winners, earning a 76 SP.  He’ll try to bounce back here.

Pedigree: Almanzor, the 2016 Cartier Champion 3yo Colt, was a dominant European horse at 10f on the turf and entered stud in France 2018, where he stands for $35,000.  In the sim, his freshman crop is currently ranked #107 overall, with 83 runners and 49 winners to date, succeeding at a 15.5% rate.  Four of his foals have won stakes races thus far (2 in turf routes, 1 in a turf sprint, and 1 in a dirt sprint), with one of those, Manzored, picking up a G3 victory in a turf mile. His sim foals have preferred the turf thus far, with 77% of earnings on turf, while it’s still a little early to tell whether he will throw more sprinters or routers.  Hempriggs is the first foal from 5yo mare My Kitty Dancer.  My Kitty Dancer put ended up with only 1 win in 15 career starts, but put up her best career start in her 2^nd to last race, a 9.5f NW2L allowance on the turf, where she showed a closing kick that she had never previously demonstrated and finished 3^rd, proving that routing was her best distance (she had some ability on dirt as well, though not the same closing speed).  Almanzor has only been sent to a Kitten’s Joy mare one other time, resulting in 3yo Kiss on the Deck, who has just started to find his stride as a pace-setting turf router (though through 7 starts, he only has a local MSW to show for his efforts).

Expectations: Hempriggs is one who may sit midpack, or slightly closer, early on, but doesn’t really seem to show any interest in being up on the pace.  He may be taking after his mother in that regard, but up until now, he hasn’t really shown the same closing kick that she demonstrated late in her career.  What he has seemed to do in his career is run evenly, but the 7f distance may not help him here.  He may be one that prefers to run longer, as he seems to have some stamina that others might be lacking.  With his experience, we’re not really expecting anything out of the ordinary from Hempriggs today, and his best probably isn’t enough to get the job done in this field.  Prefer others.

Watch Level: Low

#10 – Galileoff (Zoffany (IRE) x Unpredictability [Galileo x Kingmambo]) – Owned by phillipj4 – 5/1

Race Record: 5:2-0-1; $96,140

Race History: The most decorated horse in the field, Galileoff was gelded before he ever hit the track.  That “equipment change” looked to pay off early, as in two straight local races at 7.5f and 8f on the turf, he sat just off the pacesetter and then made an early move, winning both races.  That prompted a huge class jump the The International-G2 at 8f-T in November 2018, and he put on a strong performance, stalking the pace and holding his own to finish 3^rd with a 91 SP, earning him a Graded Placed badge.  From that race, Galileoff was given a…Gali-layoff (*rimshot*)…and returned in February at 8.5f in a turf stakes.  Unfortunately, he didn’t take to the yielding track and finished a tiring 5^th.  He tried graded company again last time out in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial-G3, where he sat further back than he ever had before and never really got into the race, finishing a well-beaten 9^th but earning a career-high 95 SP.  He’ll make a big class drop and cut back in distance here as he tries to get his 2019 back on the right foot.

Pedigree: Zoffany, a G1-winning sprinter in Ireland, was the #25 ranked EU sire in 2018 and currently stands for $25,000 in Ireland.  His 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #71 overall, with 61 winners from 97 runners to date winning at a 16.5% rate.  4 of those 61 winners have found victory at the stakes level, all in turf sprints (though one has been promising in longer routes), but none of his 2018 foals have reached graded stakes glory as of yet.  Overall, Zoffany’s sim progeny have shown an affinity for turf (77% of earnings on turf) and have preferred sprinting thus far (57% in sprints), matching Zoffany’s real life race preference but slightly shorter than his real life AWD of 8.21. Galileoff is the 2^nd foal from 7yo mare Unpredictability, a winner of 4 from 15 career races.  Her two best efforts came in 3^rd and 4^th place finishes in turf stakes at 8.5-9f, which also happened to be the distance of her 4 career wins.  Her first foal, Daiwability (Daiwa Major), has upped his game since being gelded in mid-2018, and he is 5:1-3-1 in turf allowances since the change, all coming at the 9.5f-10f distances.

Expectations: Galileoff has shown a lot of talent throughout his young career, and the cutback in distance will likely push him slightly closer to the pace here than his last run.  It will be interesting to see how he reacts to the cutback, as this will actually be the shortest race of his career.  But in terms of raw talent, Galileoff has it.  The horse he defeated in his maiden score has gone on to be a stakes winner, and he has proven that he belongs in graded stakes company.  The class drop should help him as well.  My only objection is the price; 5/1 doesn’t give you quite the value of some of the others in here.  But he’s a tough horse to knock.  A legitimate threat.

Watch Level: High

#11 – Iron Fisted (Ironicus x Larf Da Housedown [Limehouse x Distorted Humor]) – Owned by flurgen3 – 14/1

Race Record: 5:2-3-0; $61,725

Race History: Iron Fisted may be a lightly raced colt, with only 5 career races under his belt, but he’s been very successful thus far.  He began his career on the dirt, where he set the pace in each of his first 3 races (all as a 2yo) before being caught each time, finishing 2^nd in all 3 races (two sprints and one route).  To kick off his 3yo campaign, Iron Fisted switched from the dirt to the turf, as he took on a field of 7 in an 6.5f turf MSW.  There, he opened up a sizeable lead early and never looked back, holding on to win by 1-1/2 lengths and earning an 84 SP (the 2^nd place horse would go on to break his maiden next time out, earning a 90 SP in the victory).  Iron Fisted then stretched out to 7.5f on the turf to face winners for the first time and found a gear that he had never shown before.  With no other pacesetters, Iron Fisted drew off early, opening up a 5+ length lead on the field, and then geared down in cruising to a 1-1/2 length victory, earning a career high 95 SP.  He will try to make it 3 for 3 on the turf here.

Pedigree: Ironicus, who entered stud in 2017, was an 8-9f turf graded stakes winner in his career and currently stands for $5,000 in Kentucky.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #160, with 33 winners from 83 runners, winning at a 11% rate.  Among those winners are 3 stakes winners and one graded stakes horse, Ironicus Bandit, who took down a G2 at 12f on the turf.  Thus far, Ironicus’ sim foals have slightly preferred turf races (55% of earnings on turf) and his foals’ earnings, along with their speed figures, show a slight preference for turf sprints thus far.  Iron Fisted is the 5^th of 6 foals from 14yo mare Larf Da Housedown, winner of 13 of 51 races in her career.  A stalwart at the stakes level, primarily sprinting on the turf, Larf Da Housedown picked up 12 career stakes wins, and 21 career stakes placings, including a win in The Bally’s Best-G3 at 6f on turf in 2009.  Her foals haven’t been quite as perpetual at the stakes level, but 2 of her foals are stakes winners and a third is stakes placed.  One of the foals, Giggly Jiggly (Shamardal) is a stakes winner at 7f on the turf (and stakes placed from 7-8f-T), and another, You Make Moi Laugh (Pour Moi (IRE)), is a Local Stakes champion at 9f-T (and 2-time Local Stakes-placed at 11-12f-T).  The Ironicus x Limehouse combination is a new one for the sim (nor do I see any crosses between Ironicus x Grand Slam, the sire of Limehouse, or any other sons of Grand Slam, or Ironicus x Gone West, the sire of Grand Slam).

Expectations: Iron Fisted is a speedball.  He wants the lead, and through 5 career starts he’s never not had it early.  This might be the first time in his career when he’s tested on the lead.  But while he struggled to hold off horses on the dirt, he’s been dominant once switching over to the turf.  The speed figure in his last might be deceiving, as he didn’t need to run hard to secure the win, though we don’t know much about his competition there (the 5^th place horse ran 2^nd next time out in a local allowance, but he’s the only one that has come back to the track yet).  Iron Fisted has room to grow, and he’ll be one to watch here.  A contender.  Unsurprisingly, Cape Blanco has never been bred to a Soft Falling Rain mare.  In fact, there are only 14 horses to have been bred in the past 4 years with Soft Falling Rain in the DS spot, with only 3 of those (including Blanco Reef) having picked up an allowance win.

Watch Level: High

#12 – Only What You Do (Giant’s Causeway x The Black Wolf [War Front x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by victoryland – 9/1

Race Record: 6:2-0-0; $61,680

Race History: Only What You Do has taken on some of the highest caliber competition of anyone in this field.  After breaking his maiden at 6f-T at first asking in June 2018, Only What You Do was stretched out to 7f-T and entered into The Vintage-G2.  There, he stalked the pace and ran evenly throughout, finishing 5^th.  A 2^nd attempt at a 7f turf G2 in the Nationwide Stakes-G2 didn’t work out quite as well, as he sat midpack early and never really find, finishing 7^th.  Only What You Do was then sent to rest up for his 3yo season.  After a dull debut in a dirt route, he switched back to the turf and tried an 8f race.  He earned a then-best 85 SP in the effort, but it was a poor run, as he tried to stalk the pace early but tired badly, finishing 9^th.  He came back 3 weeks later in a 6.5f turf NW2L, and there he showed that he is a sprinter at heart, as he stalked the pace early and then pounced late, getting up to win by 1-1/2 lengths and earning a career high 91 SP.  Only What You Do will stretch back out to 7f here as he tries to repeat his last performance.

Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway, the #19 US sire in 2018, passed away in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently has 405(!) runners to date and ranks #1 overall.  That class includes 264 winners, which have won at a 20.5% rate.  Among the winners are 25 stakes winners and 8 graded winners.  His sim foals are typically routers, aligning with his real world 8.09 AWD, and his sim foals are evenly split among dirt and turf, though the 2018 crop is favoring dirt thus far, with 66% of earnings on dirt (boosted by a certain Bluegrass Derby winner).  Only What You Do is the first of 2 foals from 5yo mare The Black Wolf, winner of 6 from 20 career starts.  One of those wins, her best career race, came in a 6.5f dirt stakes, where she battled for the lead and then pulled away to win by 1.  She did spend some time on the turf, though her best performances all came on the dirt, and she was a sprinter through-and-through.  Although Only What You Do is the first foal from The Black Wolf, it’s interesting to note that her second foal, Like An Angel (Pivotal), broke her maiden at first asking at 6f on the turf in March, and then went on to a 3^rd place finish last week in a 6f turf stakes race, where she stalked the pace early and was moving up at the end.  Giant’s Causeway has been bred to a War Front mare 9 times in the past 4 years in the sim, with 3 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners among the bunch.  One of those graded stakes winners is Giant’s Kash, the winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Derby-G1, while the other, Every Atom of Me, is a G3-winning turf miler who just ran 2^nd in the 2019 The 2000 Guineas-G1.  Both of those graded stakes winning 3yos share the full Giant’s Causeway x War Front x A.P. Indy cross with Only What You Do, as does 1 other turf sprinting allowance winner.

Expectations: Only What You Do has a lot to live up to, with 2 top 3yos sharing the same bloodlines.  And although Only What You Do hasn’t quite achieved that level of success yet, he’s still young and the promise is there.  He does look like he’s a sprinter all the way, as he likes to stalk the pace early and then pounce late (he doesn’t seem to have the stamina for that running style in routes).  Furthermore, he’s been improving in every turf start, and he’ll look to continue that trend here.  But it looks like he’ll need a pretty sizeable improvement from his previous best to take down this field.  It’s certainly possible, but he may be better served underneath your bets rather than on top.  A Kingmambo mare has been bred to Oasis Dream 49 times in the past 4 years, with 10 stakes winners and 4 graded stakes winners among the group.  Most of the progeny are turf runners, and although the graded stakes winners have mostly been successful in 8-9f turf races, the group as a whole seems to have some sprinting ability.

Watch Level: Medium

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That’s your field of 12 for this NW3L allowance.  And surprisingly, with that many horses, there aren’t any true closers, which is a bit of a bummer because the front end should be hot here.  I’ve done a pretty good job in the past of predicting the pacesetters, but I’m at a bit of a loss here, as there are 3 horses in this field that are willing to go all out to get the lead early.  Blanco Reef has set the fastest paces of the three in the past, but he’s been pushed in those races.  So instead, I’m gonna say that The Middle Man sets the pace, dueling neck-and-neck with Iron Fisted, followed by Blanco Reef about ½ length back and then another length to Turns and Burns.  But most of the horses in this field are going to cluster about 2-4 lengths off of that pace, so expect to see Petah Tikva and Dawn De Vida a little further back than you would normally expect them to be.  But honestly, I think that could help them here.  I’ve been wrong about the impact of pace on these races before, but I just can’t see the frontrunners not getting caught here.  So my prediction is: (1) Petah Tikva; (2) The Middle Man; (3) Dawn De Vida, with longshot pick Iron Fisted.  Good luck to everyone!

Other races to watch this weekend:

1)      Ireland – Alw NW2L @ 9f-T (Division 1) (Division 2)

2)      Pennsylvania – Alw NW3L @ 9f

3)      Virginia – Allowance @ 8f

4)      California – Alw NW4L @ 9.5f-T

5)      Kentucky – Local ALW NW2x @ 8f

6)      Paris – Alw NW3L @ 9f-T

7)      Louisiana – Alw NW3L @ 8f (Fillies)

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First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  I didn’t call the results correctly, but I’m even more proud of the fact that I nailed the pace setup.  Battle Thy Mom had her nose out in front early, dueling with Henty Kelee, with Safety Guide and Banished From Hell just off of them.  Of course, I thought that would create a pace breakdown, and while the pace was reasonably fast, Henty Kelee proved to be much the best in the field, withstanding that pace battle to pull away and win by 1-1/2.  The leading charges came from midpack, with Dilys Price putting in a solid effort to come up from 6^th to grab 2^nd. It was 4-1/4 lengths back to third, where D’Oro Cookies was the leading closer, coming up from 9^th early to hit the board.

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This week, I decided I was tired of the NW3L dirt mile races (even though the highest point race this weekend again fit that bill). So for a change, this week the Future Stars Series “goes bragh”, as we head to Ireland for a 9f turf NW2L for fillies.  The field of 14 is:

#1 – Aerials (Belardo x Turf Crossing [Cape Cross x Dynaformer]) – Owned by lockyer – 25/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $6,410

Race History: A bargain bred, Aerials began her career where many bargains do – At the hot race level.  After dominating in that race (against only 1 other human-owned horse), she moved into standard NW2L company, but struggled in her first try at 8f.  She comes into this race off a much better effort in her 2^nd route try, and 3^rd race overall, where she ran 3^rd in a NW2L at 8f-T in a field of 9, picking up a career high 85 SP in the process.  The two that defeated her each came back to run 2^nd in allowances in their next races.  Aerials has seen a 16 point SP jump in each of her races, and if she can do that again here, she’ll be in great shape. She comes into this race off a 3.5 month layoff, as her 3^rd place finish was back at the beginning of November 2018.

Pedigree: Belardo, the champion European 2yo of 2014, currently stands for $10,000 but entered stud in 2017, so he does not have any real life foals.  In the sim, his #324-ranked 2018 crop includes 50 runners to date, of which 22 have been victorious (at a 15% rate).  His foals prefer turf, and thus far have shown a preference for sprints (which is similar to Belardo in real life, who did his best running at 7-8f-T), though that could change as they find their way into longer distances.  The 2018 class includes Belardo’s only stakes winner to date, Areacode West, who earned that victory in a 5f dirt sprint.  Aerials is the 3^rd foal from Turf Crossing, a 9yo mare and winner of 9 from 33 races in her career.  Following her maiden win, she was claimed for $60,000 and her new owner found success for her at the allowance level in long-distance turf races.  She could run all day, with her best racing at the 14-16f distances (including a well-beaten 2^nd in a 6-horse 16f turf stakes).  Turf Crossing’s 2 prior foals include Exbourne’s Curves (Frankel (GB)), who ran 2 very poor races as a 2yo and has been on the shelf ever since, and Ardamir (Dariyan (FR)), who has done his best running in turf miles.

Expectations: The relative inexperience of Aerials, and the long layoff, makes this race a bit of a question mark.  It looks like she’ll sit towards the back early.  But there’s some question as to whether she has the stamina to get the distance.  Her mother certainly did, and her one racing sibling also has no problem with it, but Aerials’ two efforts at this distance have seen her with a limited or non-existent closing kick.  When coming from the back, that’s something that you’re gonna need.  Still, she was given a lot of time off from her last race, so she may come back sharp here, but I’m going to wait a race before backing her at the betting window.

Watch Level: Low

#2 – Henty Beam (Shamardal x Dapto Sunbeam [Camelot (GB) x Sea The Stars]) – Owned by dargo – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $35,420

Race History: She might be lightly raced, but Henty Beam comes into this one looking strong.  After trying a 6.5f-T race in her debut, where she briefly poked her nose in front before finishing 3^rd, she stretched out to 9f-T in her first race of 2019, a local MSW.  Against a 14 horse field, she broke for the lead and never looked back, opening up to a 3 length lead in the far turn before gearing down for a 2 length victory.  That win earned her a 90 SP, a 16 point jump from her first effort.  None of her previous 23 maiden competitors have earned a win following those races, though only 3 from her last race have come back to the track yet.

Pedigree: Shamardal was 2018′s #5 ranked EU sire, with his real life progeny preferring the 7-8f distances (similar to Shamardal himself).  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #22, with 69 winners from 147 runners to date, winning at an 18% rate.  His sim progeny are turf specialists (72% of earnings on turf) and seem to improve with distance (62% in routes), though they do just fine in sprints as well.  The 2018 class includes 1 graded stakes winner, Opted Back In, who was 2nd in the Breeders Bowl Juvy Filly Turf and is currently the #2 ranked 3yo filly turf router, as well as 6 other stakes winners (5 of whom did so in turf sprints).  Henty Beam is the 3^rd foal from 7yo mare Dapto Sunbeam, who was a 2-time stakes winner and G2-placed among 6 wins in 21 career races.  Most of those races were in the 9-10f-T range, though she did earn a stakes win at 11f-T and was 4^th in the 2015 Sydney Derby – G1 at 12f-T.  Her first two foals have not been quite as good as their mother, though both have multiple allowance wins.  Both of those foals have done their best running in long turf races, finding their home in 10-16f turf races.  There is only one other sim horse produced by Shamardal with a Camelot mare to date, and that is 3yo Shamalama, who is similarly 2 races into her career, having just broken her maiden at 8.5f-T in January.

Expectations: Henty Beam may not have the speed to grab the lead in a sprint, but when it comes to routes, she’s got the energy to get out in front and she’s got the stamina to stay there.  In this field, that’s a great sign.  Another great sign is that she already has experience at this distance, and she was geared down when winning that race, so Henty Beam should have something left in the tank for this race.  It’s not an easy field, but she’s faced full fields before and she looks primed for a big run here.  The pick.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Realistic Shot (Authorized x Surrealistic [Distorted Humor x Dynaformer]) – Owned by desimster6 – 8/1

Race Record: 7:1-3-0; $62,236

Race History: Realistic Shot comes into this race off of a 2^nd place finish in a NW2L at today’s distance at the end of January.  In that race, she earned a career best SP of 87, as she sat 2 lengths back early and then was outrun by just 1 horse to the wire.  That race was her second of 2019, as Realistic Shot opened her 3yo season with a dirt try in which she struggled with the footing.  Most of Realistic Shot’s career races have been at the turf route distances, including her maiden-breaking score at 8.5f-T, where she sat 3^rd early before taking the victory.  She also competed in a key race for today’s competition in December 2018, in a NW2L 8.5f turf allowance where Realistic Shot finished 8^th, behind today’s rival Navy Blue Barbara (6^th) but ahead of rival Star Rock (11^th).

Pedigree: Authorized, the 2007 European Champion 3yo colt, did his best running at 10-12f on the turf and currently stands for $12,000, where he is the #71 ranked European sire of 2018.  That real life performance is a little better than his sim counterpart, where the 23 runners in his 2018 crop currently rank #300, with 14 winners among them winning at a very successful 26% clip.  None of the class has moved beyond allowance wins, however.  His sim progeny, much like his real life progeny, prefer long turf races, with 68% of earnings on turf and 73% in routes (with the best speed figures coming in races longer than 10f)..  Realistic Shot is the 4^th foal from 10yo mare Surrealistic, an excellent runner who won 10 races, including 5 stakes, in 33 efforts.  She is also G2-placed, and just missed a G1 placing with a 4^th place finish in the 2013 Oaks De English – G1 (12f-T).  Surrealistic did most of her damage, however, at 9f on the turf.  Surrealistic’s first three foals have similarly followed Surrealistic’s path.  Each of them is stakes placed, with one, Bumpin In The Club (Variety Club) a 2-time stakes winner, and all 3 have done their best running in turf routes (the 8-10f range).

Expectations: Realistic Shot is the most experienced 3yo in the field, having already raced twice as a 3yo. Her last race also had the benefit of being a dirt-to-turf race, giving her a potential boost in that one.  These two facts make it less likely that we’ll see an unexpected jump here.  The question is whether she can make a modest improvement to take the victory.  She will likely sit about 2-3 lengths off the pace early, and hopes to fend off some of the closers here late.  She does have experience at the distance, and has a chance here; she’s just a little less interesting than some of the others.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Battle For Uncle (Uncle Lino x Battle For STC [War Chant x Miswaki]) – Owned by stclegions – 18/1

Race Record: 9:1-1-2; $28,064

Race History: The most experienced horse in the field, Battle For Uncle has been struggling at the allowance level since breaking his maiden in his debut, but looks like she may be rounding into form as a 3yo.  She comes into this race off of a 2^nd and 3^rd place finish in her last 2 races, both in January 2019.  Battle For Uncle’s most recent race may be the most instructive for today’s contest, as it was her first try at a turf route.  In that NW2L allowance at 8f-T, she broke midpack early and raced evenly throughout, passing a couple of tiring horses and finishing 3^rd, earning an 81 SP.  That SP was down slightly from her prior race, at 8.25f on the dirt in a NW1x, where she set an easy pace before running out of gas late and finishing 2^nd in a 4 horse field.  Battle For Uncle will stretch out to a career long 9f here to try and improve on those last couple of races.

Pedigree: Uncle Lino, a freshman sire in 2018, currently stands in Pennsylvania for $4,000.  His freshman crop in the sim is currently ranked #203 overall, with 29 winners from 59 runners to date winning at an 18.5% rate.  Among those is Uncle No No, a stakes winner at 5.5f and G1-placed at 8.5f, both on the dirt.  That’s where his progeny have preferred to be thus far, with 79% of earnings on the dirt to date.  It’s too early to judge the right distance for his foals, though the early route speed figures are looking stronger than the sprint ones.  14yo dam Battle For STC was a winner of 4 races in her 25 race career, with all 4 of those (and most of her career races) coming on the dirt.  The best stretch of her career was an “always a bridesmaid, never a bride” situation, where she proceeded to run 2^nd in 5 straight allowances at the 8-9f distance, before finally breaking the slump at 10f.  That 8-10f distance was her preference.  Her only other foal to date, 11yo Save The Birds (Birdstone) never did anything on the track, going 0 for 6 in her career (technically, she is still active, though she has not raced since 2011).

Expectations: Looking at her past performances, it’s interesting to see that Battle For Uncle seems to race more evenly on turf, but may run slightly faster on dirt.  This 9f contest will be a good indication of where she stands, as if she can race evenly though this distance, she could end up running her best race to date.  She’ll probably sit midpack here and see what she can do from there.  I’m not sure that she has the speed to catch the pacesetters or outkick the closers in this particular race, but this race could be very instructive for where she ends up in the future.

Watch Level: Low

#5 – Navy Blue Barbara (Fastnet Rock (AUS) x Kris S. x Montjeu) – Owned by barbsbarn – 6/1 (­f-t)

Race Record: 4:1-1-1; $47,880

Race History: One of the co-favorites, Navy Blue Barbara comes into this race off of a strong 3^rd place finish in a NW2L allowance at 8.5f-T last time out, her first race of 2019.  In that race, Navy Blue Barbara sat a length off the pace early and briefly grabbed the lead from a tiring pacesetter at the top of the stretch, before dueling down the stretch and coming out on the short end of a 3-horse photo.  The effort saw her pick up a career high 89 SP, her 3^rd straight 80+ SP.  The race prior to that one was a key race here, as she outran today’s opponents Realistic Shot (8^th) and Star Rock (11^th) when running 6^th in her first allowance effort.  Navy Blue Barbara will stretch out to a career long 9f distance here.

Pedigree: Fastnet Rock, the #3 ranked Australian sire and #11 ranked European sire in 2018, is a very successful dual-standing sire with a $70,000 stud fee.  In the sim, Fastnet Rock’s 2018 crop is currently ranked #55, with 77 winners from 134 runners winning at an 18% rate.  Much like real life, where his foals have their best success around 9 furlongs, his sim foals mildly prefer routes, with 60% of earnings in routes, while 79% comes from the turf.  The 2018 crop includes 4 stakes winners (but no graded winners) to date, with most of those coming in turf sprints.  The Fastnet Rock x Kris S. cross has been used 14 times in the past 4 years, including 6 times in 2018.  The cross has resulted in one excellent horse, 4yo Secret Kitten, winner of the 2018 Equinics – Cecil Roo – G1 (8f-T) as a 3yo.  Like her, the cross has excelled on turf, though they are split among sprinters and routers.  Among the 3yos, all 6 have broken their maidens, but only 1 has moved beyond that to win a NW2L allowance thus far.

Expectations: Navy Blue Barbara does have some early speed, as she showed in her 6.5f-T debut, where she dueled for the lead the entire way before coming up 1 length short.  But as she has stretched out to routes, she’s tended to come from farther back.  Her most recent race saw her only 1.5 lengths back early, but the pace there wasn’t too fast, so it’s more likely that she’ll sit 3 or 4 back here.  In this field, that will probably put her closer to the front.  And if she’s there, she’s got the speed and stamina to hold off some from the back.  She’s consistent, and she’s the co-favorite here for a reason.  Respect.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Sea Da Bears (Sea The Stars x Starrahy Eyed [Rahy x Danzig]) – Owned by palehose – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $30,360

Race History: The least experienced horse in the field, Sea Da Bears comes into this race off of her maiden breaking debut back in January.  In that race, a local 7f-T MSW, she caught a field of 8 and after sitting 2 lengths off the pace early, she showed a strong burst of speed late, drawing off to win by 3 lengths.  The win was good enough for an 84 SP.  None of her competitors have come back to the track yet, so it’s a little difficult to judge the caliber of her competition, though they were a combined 0 for 20 prior to that race.  Sea Da Bears takes a big leap in distance here, stretching out to 9f-T for her first route effort.

Pedigree: Sea The Stars, the 2009 European Horse of the Year, was the #7 ranked sire in the EU in 2018. In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #8, with 183 runners to date and 106 winners, winning at a 20.5% rate.  His progeny prefers turf routes (75% earnings on turf, 69% routes).  The 3yo crop, in particular, includes 6 stakes winners to date, all but one of whom has done so on turf, with one of those, Shine Underneath, recently breaking through with a G3 victory in the Super Hero Role Playing Stakes-G3 at 10.5f on the turf.  Starrahy Eyed, the 12yo dam of Sea Da Bears, was a G1-winning millionaire in her racing days.  She won 14 races in her 39 race career, with the biggest coming in the Super Gold Handicap-G1 (6f-T) as a 2yo in 2007.  Her best results, including all 3 graded stakes wins and 4 non-graded stakes wins, all came in turf sprints at 6-7f, though Starrahy Eyed’s fastest SP actually came in dirt sprints.  She proved to be equally good on dirt later in her career, though she never stretched beyond the level on that surface.  Starrahy Eyed’s 4 older foals have taken after her preferences as well, as all four have picked up all but 1 win in sprints (mostly on the turf, though a few on the dirt).  The “star” of the foals is 6yo Star Incanto (Per Incanto), a 4-time stakes winner in 5.5f-6f turf sprints.  8yo Black Patch (Exceed and Excel) was also stakes placed at 6.5f on the turf.  Sea The Stars has been bred to a Rahy mare 4 times in the past 4 years, and one of those, 6yo See Me Shine, is a stakes winner at 7.5f-T (though most of her wins came at 8f-T).

Expectations: It’s tough to know exactly what to expect from Sea Da Bears here, as she only has one race under her belt thus far, and that race was a 7f-T sprint.  She sat towards the back there, but I have a feeling that she’s going to try to stalk the pace this time.  She may even end up more forwardly placed.  Sea Da Bears looked like she had something left in the stretch of that race, but I can’t help but be concerned about this distance given her pedigree.  Her mother was a sprinter; her siblings are all sprinters; and her bloodline cross also looks to be best in sprints.  Sea Da Bears is definitely a live one in this race, but I feel more confident in others here.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Looking For War (War Front x World Stage [Frankel (GB) x Mr. Prospector]) – Owned by dora – 6/1 (f-t)

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $41,026

Race History: Looking For War waited until the races were a little longer, and has seen some improvement in each of her 3 races to date.  She comes into this NW2L off of a maiden score at 8.5f-T in her first start of 2019.  In that race, she sat mid-pack early before steadily moving to the front and winning by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a career best 85 SP.  2 races back in an 8f-T ESR-restricted MSW, she struggled to keep up with the others and finished 6 lengths back in 4^th, but the winner from that race went on to take home an ESR stakes race next time out, and the top 4 horses from that race (including Looking For War) are a combined 5 for 5 since that race.  Looking For War will try to make it 6 for 6 here.

Pedigree: War Front currently stands for $250,000 in Kentucky and was the #23 ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, he was even better, as his 2018 crop currently ranks #13, with 96 winners from 179 runners to date (at an 18% win rate).  His sim progeny are equally adept at sprints and routes (though the speed figures are better in routes than sprints), but they do typically prefer dirt races, with 69% of earnings on dirt.  The 2018 class includes 6 stakes winners, 2 of which have landed G3 wins.   One of those two, Expert Panel, is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf and ran 4^th in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf, while the other, Telah (son of Sim Hall of Famer Final Exit), has found his success at 8.5f on the dirt. World Stage, the 7yo he-mare of Looking For War, was a winner of 10 races in his 29 race career.  Those 10 wins included 5 at the stakes level, and he came up just 1-3/4 lengths short of being a G3 winner, with all of those races coming in the 7.5-8.5f-T range.  Much like his only daughter, he preferred to come from midpack or further back.  The War Front x Frankel combination has been used 5 times in the past 4 years (including Looking For War), but only 3 of those have broken their maidens yet and none have picked up an allowance win.  The speed figures look slightly better in sprints than routes, but there’s not quite enough data to know for certain which is preferred (4 of the 5 horses are currently 3yos).

Expectations: Looking For War is looking for her second consecutive victory here, and if she does it, she’ll do it from midpack.  She likes to have something to run towards, but she is also more methodical about it and doesn’t have quite the same closing kick as some of the others in here.  I’m a little curious what would happen if Looking For War sprinted.  In this race, she’s certainly got a chance, but I think she might struggle to get first run on some of the others coming from farther back.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – Newspaperofrecord (Shamardal x Sadler’s Wells x Blushing Groom) – Owned by sjmeola4 – 6/1 (f-t)

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,100

Race History: Like her real life namesake, Newspaperofrecord has shown some real turf ability in her 2 race career.  In her debut in November 2018, she settled second to last early on, before showing a strong closing kick and drawing off to win by 1-1/2 lengths, earning a 77 SP.  She came back as a 3yo with a vengeance, entering an open-gender local NW2L at today’s 9f-T distance.  Running against 6 boys (and 2 other girls), Newspaperofrecord sat last early, dropping over 10 lengths back, but came flying late and just ran out of real estate, losing a photo for 2^nd and finishing 2-1/2 lengths back.  That effort earned her a career- and field-high 92 SP.  She gets the comfort of only fillies this time, as this lightly raced filly tries to duplicate her most recent performance.

Pedigree: While Newspaperofrecord’s racing preference may match her real life namesake’s, her pedigree does not.  See Henty Beam above for a description of Shamardal.  Sadler’s Wells is the most popular sim cross for Shamardal, and it’s been used 32 times in the past 4 years, including 11 times in 2018.  The bulk of those horses have shown an affinity for turf, and while some of the older ones have been strongest going long distances, the younger ones have been equally adept at sprints and routes.  Among the 3yos of the group is Dreambot, who recently picked up a 3^rd place stakes finish at 8.5f on the turf.  The full bloodlines of Shamardal x Sadler’s Wells x Blushing Groom has been used 3 other times in the past 4 years, with the filly among them just hitting her stride at the 7-8f range when she was retired, and the two colts doing their best running in the 9f-T range.

Expectations: Newspaperofrecord likes to have horses to chase, and it’s pretty likely that she’ll be placed toward the back here.  Her last race was arguably the strongest in the field, and if she can run back to that one, she’ll have a great chance here.  But there are a couple of questions: did she go too hard when trying to tackle males last time?  And will there be a pace to give her a chance to close here?  She comes back to the track after a month, which is far shorter than her first break of 2.5 months, but she’s already got a 3yo race at this distance under her belt, and that experience should help here.  A top contender.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Universal Strike (Australia x Universal Marvel [Smart Strike x Dynaformer]) – Owned by intheirons2 – 9/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-1; $36,938

Race History: Universal Strike enters this NW2L after finally breaking through her maiden in her 4^th try, at today’s 9f-T distance, in her first race of 2019.  Her first 3 races, as a 2yo, saw her struggle to get the route distances, as she tired in each effort and faded late.  In the second of those 3, she trailed today’s rival Sea Cry, finishing 8^th to Sea Cry’s 4^th. But in her most recent race, Universal Strike struck, sitting just off the pace early and then grabbing the lead and holding on to win by ¾ lengths.  She earned a career high 89 SP for the effort.  Only one horse from her last race, the 8^th place finisher, has come back to the track as of yet, but that horse managed to break her maiden at next asking.

Pedigree: Australia, an expert at 10-12f on the turf, currently stands for $35,000 and was the #4 ranked first crop sire in Europe in 2018.  In the sim, Australia’s 2018 crop is currently ranked #115 and includes 88 runners, of which 39 have won at a 16% rate (slightly below his 19% average).  One of those 39, So What’s The Plan, is the only stakes winner, but that stakes was The Wooden Reserve-G3 (8.5f-T), and she followed that up with a 2^nd place finish in The Saint Cloud-G1 (10f-T). The significant majority of his sim progeny prefer turf, with 86% of earnings coming from the sod, while 68% come from routes; however, the speed figures for his progeny have been better in sprints than in routes.  Universal Strike is the first foal from 6yo mare Universal Marvel, a 3-time winner in 30 career races.  Those 3 wins came in an 8.5f-T MSW, an 8f-T $100K claimer (from which she was claimed), and a 6.5f-T NW3L allowance.  Universal Marvel often struggled at the 8-8.5f distances while being forwardly placed, but found her groove at 7f, where she could sit off the lead and still have a little left at the end.  A Smart Strike mare has been sent to Australia 5 times in the sim, with two success stories to date.  One, 5yo Nightcliff, is a winner everywhere from 6f-12.5f on the turf, though she has done her best running (and is stakes placed) at the 7.5-8f range.  The other, 5yo Western Australia, is G3-placed on the dirt, loving as much distance as he can get, with his best races (and his G3 placing) coming at 11-12f, though he has not raced in 2 years so we will never know what his best distance or surface really was.

Expectations: Universal Strike is going to try and get out of the gate pretty quickly and sit close to the lead, though probably not on it.  She looks like she may have turned the corner as a 3yo, finally showing the stamina that her pedigree suggests she should have and withstanding the 9f distance.  Her last race was a nice improvement from the race before, and if she can make a similar improvement here, she’s got a strong chance.  Her chances get even stronger if the pace is as weak as expected.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Hushwing Accolade (Acclamation x Hushwing Lily [Dalakhani x Storm Cat]) – Owned by hushwing – 23/1

Race Record: 7:1-0-1; $33,410

Race History: Hushwing Accolade has spent most of her 7 race career in routes, but it took her 6 tries to finally break her maiden.  She was given 2 months off at the end of 2018 but has been pushed pretty hard in 2019, as she’s already raced 3 times this year.  The first try of the year saw Hushwing Accolade finish an even 3^rd, and she came back 10 days later to finally break her maiden at 8f-T, winning a head-bob photo and earning a 77 SP.  2 weeks later, she was back for her first NW2L effort at 8f-T, but after breaking towards the back of the pack, she never showed any interest, running a well-beaten 11^th.  Even though she was well beaten, she did earn a career high 79 SP, which was pretty consistent with her other 3yo efforts of 77 and 78.  Hushwing Accolade will enter the starting gate here off of another 2 week break as she tries to show more effort here.

Pedigree: One of 2 sim sires with the same name, this Acclamation was the #17 ranked EU sire in 2018 and currently stands for $40,000 in Ireland.  A sprint sire in real life, in the sim his progeny are also turf sprinters, with 70% of earnings coming on the turf and 65% in sprints.  His 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #83, with 46 winners from 87 runners.  Among those winners are 2 stakes winners: Memory Queen, who is a G3 winner at 7f on the turf, and Acclaim The Cold, who is a stakes winner and G2-placed at 8f on the turf.  Hushwing Accolade is the 3^rd foal from 10yo mare Hushwing Lily, a mare who earned 2 wins in a 52 race career.  Her best race was a 3^rd place finish in a 9f dirt stakes back in 2012, which was her only time placing in 11 career stakes efforts.  She bounced around distances and surfaces, generally running every 2-3 weeks, but her best distance seemed to be in the 9-10f range on dirt.  Her first foal, 6yo Hushwing Peach (Shanghai Bobby), is her most decorated, as she was stakes placed at 11f on the dirt (though, like her mother, that was her only placing in 14 career stakes efforts).  Hushwing Lily’s other foal, Hushwing Heart (Heart’s Cry (JPN)), has done his best running in sprints.  Acclamation has been bred to a Dalakhani mare 4 times in the past 4 years, with the most successful being 5yo Fist Fighter, who has found his stride at the 7-8f turf distance.

Expectations: Hushwing Accolade will stretch out to her longest race here, but she made need a break if she’s going to be able to get the distance.  She struggled to keep up with the field in her last race, at a shorter 8f-T distance, so there’s some question as to whether she’ll be able to keep up here.  Some time off might help, but she looks in over her head in this race.

Watch Level: Low

#11 – Star Rock (Star Witness x Zero Rock [Galileo (IRE) x Duke of Marmalade]) – Owned by michaelb9 – 36/1

Race Record: 8:1-0-0; $32,283

Race History: One of the veterans of this field with 8 career starts, Star Rock has been struggling at the allowance level since breaking her maiden at 5f-T back in race #4.  In 4 races since, she has finished no better than 4^th, and no closer than 4 lengths from the winners of those races. Her most recent race, her first as a 3yo, was a toss-out, as she finished last in a 4 horse field, 9-1/2 lengths back in a 5.5f-T open allowance.  The most instructive for this race though was her start 2 races back, her only route attempt to date.  There, Star Rock earned a career high 76 SP and set the pace early, but didn’t have the stamina to keep it up and faded to 11^th, 10 lengths behind the winner.  That NW2L is a key race here, as 2 of Star Rock’s rivals in today’s race also competed there; Navy Blue Barbara (6^th) and Realistic Shot (8^th).  Star Rock will give it another shot here.

Pedigree: Star Witness, who currently stands in Australia for $22,000, struggled a bit in 2018, ranking #69 in Australia (after ranking #18 and #21 in his 2 previous seasons).  The sim version of Star Witness hasn’t had quite the same success that the real life version has, nor has he been given much of a chance.  His 2018 sim crop consists of 18 runners, of which 10 have found victory at a 17% rate.  But while the numbers might be small, that hasn’t prevented success, as one of those 10 winners, Second Island, is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf.  Star Witness’s sim progeny prefer the turf, with 61% of earnings coming on the surface, while they are also more likely to be sprinters, with 62% coming in sprints (and likewise, the speed figures are usually better in sprints). Zero Rock, the 8yo dam of Star Rock, was a winner of 2 races in her 23 race career.  Both of those wins came at 10f on the turf.  A closer by trade, Zero Rock did her best running at that 10f distance, but that was also the farthest she could run, as she struggled to show any closing speed beyond that.  Her first foal, Last Furlong (Siyouni), took after his mother, as a deep closer who likes longer races (though he’s been able to put up decent speed figures as far out as 12f). Zero Rock’s second foal, 4yo Rocky Highway (Black Minnaloushe) is a turf sprinter who is typically towards the front of the field.  Star Witness has been used with a Galileo mare 3 times in the sim, though the other 2 were bred at the start of the new sim, so they’re not very instructive (neither was successful on the track, as they went a combined 1 for 23 lifetime).

Expectations: Star Rock looks like she is going to battle for the lead here, as she’s got some early speed and likes to use it.  Unfortunately, that will likely be the only time that Star Rock is on or near the lead in this race.  She’s raced a fair amount since debuting in June 2018, but she looks like she has distance limitations and her speed figures have not been progressing in the way that you would want to see for a strong 3yo competitor.  I’ll pass here.

Watch Level: Low

#12 – Cat Skoozie (Fastnet Rock (AUS) x Sappho [Dynaformer x Kingmambo]) – Owned by quivertree – 8/1

Race Record: 6:1-0-2; $37,660

Race History: Cat Skoozie broke her maiden at 7f-T at 2^nd asking, but has struggled in 4 NW2L allowances since.  She picked it up recently though, and comes into this race off of 2 straight 3^rd place finishes.  Her speed figures have been improving in every race, and Cat Skoozie comes here off of a career high 88 SP at 8.5f-T.  The winner from her last race, who she finished 2 lengths behind, came back to win an allowance next time out, and the winner from 2 back (where she also finished 2 lengths behind) followed up that win with a 2^nd in a stakes race.  This will be her first race of 2019.

Pedigree: See Navy Blue Barbara for a description of Fastnet Rock.  Cat Skoozie is the 9^th foal from15yo mare Sappho.  In her 53 race career, Sappho managed 6 wins, including 4 at the stakes level, and another 7 stakes placings throughout her career.  All but one of those came in turf sprints, primarily in her 2yo and early 3yo campaigns.  Her 8 previous foals to date have all showed strong abilities on the track, and particularly on the turf.  The best of those is 7yo Landlubber (Sea The Stars), a 3-time G2 winner at 7-8f-T and a winner of 7 total stakes races in his 39 race career.  But 5 of Cat Skoozie’s other 7 siblings are also stakes winners in turf sprints and routes.  They seem to generally excel in the 7-9f range, though the speed figures have generally been the fastest in routes.  Fastnet Rock has been bred to a Dynaformer mare 26 times in the past 4 years, with 4 of those (including Cat Skoozie) being the full Fastnet Rock x Dynaformer x Kingmambo cross.  None of those 4 is among the 5 stakes winners of the group, though the 3 others all seem to prefer longer distances.

Expectations: Cat Skoozie is a dead closer who will be looking for a quick pace here.  She has broken in the back in each of her 4 route efforts, and her late closing kick has been getting stronger and stronger in each race.  In her last 2 races, she closed 6-7 lengths in the stretch (and 9 lengths total each time), and she should relish the extra ½ furlong here.  A real contender.

Watch Level: High

#13 – Sea Cry (Sea The Stars x Street Cry x Nijinsky II) – Owned by dreaming – 11/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-2; $39,628

Race History: Sea Cry took 3 tries to break her maiden, finally pulling through in a 6.5f-T MSW in November 2018.  In that race, she closed from midpack early to pull away, winning by 1 length.  In her first effort at the allowance level, an 8f-T local NW3L to end 2018, Sea Cry sat much further back early, hanging out at the back of the pack, and closed to finish 3^rd, though she was still 6 lengths off of the leaders.  She earned a career high 85 SP, a 9 point jump from her maiden win, and comes into this race on a high note.  Of note, her 2^nd career race (and first attempt in a route) saw her finish 4^th, beating today’s opponent Universal Strike, who finished 8^th that day.  This will be the longest attempt for Sea Cry, and her first race of 2019.

Pedigree: “Sea” Sea Da Bears above for a description of Sea The Stars.  The Sea The Stars x Street Cry cross has been used 26 times in the past 4 years, including 9 times in 2018 alone.  One of those 9 is stakes placed at 7.5f-T, and 4 of the 26 overall have gone on to pick up a stakes victory.  The cross largely produces turf runners, with long distances (especially over 11f) seeing the best results.

Expectations: Sea Cry is yet another horse that will be duking it out…towards the back of the pack.  Her pedigree indicates that she’ll love longer distances, but her previous 4 races hint that she may be a sprinter.  At 6.5f, she was able to show a solid kick to outrun her opponents, but at 8f, she’s struggled to really gain any ground, merely passing horses that are more tired than her and racing evenly.  That indicates that Sea Cry has some stamina, but doesn’t really have the speed to back it up.  She might improve in her first 3yo effort, but she’s drawn a tough field for that to succeed here.

Watch Level: Medium

#14 – Tete Crick (Kodiac (GB) x Tete Dinaal [Iffraaj (GB) x Forty Niner]) – Owned by anothercrick7 – 12/1

Race Record: 4:1-2-0; $54,149

Race History: It took 4 tries, but Tete Crick comes into this race off her maiden score.  After coming up just short in her 2 prior races in turf sprints, she stretched out to 8f-T and joined 3 other fillies taking on 7 colts in a local MSW back in December 2018.  There, she sat towards the back early before flying late, getting up by a head and earning a career high 86 SP.  The runner-up from that race came back to break his maiden next time out with a 97 SP.  This will be Tete Crick’s first 3yo start.

Pedigree: Kodiac, the #10 ranked European sire of 2018, currently stands for $65,000, and in real life he is primarily a sprint sire.  In the sim, Kodiac is also a turf sprint sire, with 66% of earnings coming in the short races and 68% on the turf.  Kodiac’s 2018 sim crop hasn’t quite jumped like his real life counterpart, but it is his best to date, ranking #78 thus far with 51 winners from 90 runners (winning at a 19% rate, well above his 13.5% average).  Among those are 7 stakes winners, one of whom, Justice My Way, is G3-placed at 7f-T. Tete Crick is the first foal from 5yo mare Tete Dinaal, who was claimed for $2K in early 2018 and then pushed into the breeding shed after only 1 start for her new owner.  That start was her career best effort, in which she earned a 102 SP while coming up 1 length short in a 9f-T $2K starter allowance.  She was a late bloomer, but looked to be turning the corner once she hit 4 years old, enjoying the 8-9f races.

Expectations: Tete Crick changed up her running style when facing males last time out, as she sat much farther off the pace than she had in her previous 3 sprint efforts.  It’s the opposite of her mother, who was a deep closer when sprinting but leveled out a little more in routes.  Regardless, that running style worked to perfection last time out, and I would expect her to do try something similar here.  She’ll look to take the 3yo leap here.

Watch Level: High

—

That’s the full field for this week’s NW2L.  Interestingly, when it comes to pace, it looks like the biggest battle is going to be for who can sit in last early.  Very few of these horses want anything to do with the pace, and one of the few that might actually take the lead, 36/1 Star Rock, doesn’t look like she has the stamina to make it count.  But she may be the wildcard, because without her, it’s Henty Beam’s pace to set (Universal Strike and Sea Da Bears look like the only other two that could be close).  If Star Rock pushes the pace, Henty Beam might end up running a little faster up from than she wants to.  But if she doesn’t push, the race setup would allow Henty Beam to set whatever pace she wanted to, and she’s got the stamina to withhold some of the late charges from the closers.  Ultimately, I think the pace plays a big role in this one, and the closers just won’t have the chance to get there.  I’m going with (1) Henty Beam, (2) Cat Skoozie, (3) Tete Crick.  But don’t quote me on that.

Other races to watch this weekend:

1)      Indiana – Alw NW3L @ 8f

2)      Ontario – Alw NW3L @ 9f-T

3)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 9f-T

4)      California – Allowance @ 9f

5)      Victoria-AUS – Alw NW4L @ 6.5f-T

6)      California – Alw NW2L @ 7f (Fillies)

7)      Arizona – Alw NW4x @ 8.25f

8)      New York – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f-T (Fillies)

9)      Oregon – Alw NW1x @ 6.5f-T

 

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