Jul 052019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  And that recap is…I FINALLY GOT ONE RIGHT!!!  Creed of Hefin got out of the gate quickly and grabbed the lead, but he was tracked throughout the race closely by Awesomizer.  As they entered the far turn, Creed of Hefin started to falter a bit and Awesomizer took over the lead.  From there, it was clear sailing for Awesomizer ($10.40) who grabbed the lead and held on to win by ½ length, earning an 83 SP.  Tuns O’ Kittens, who sat 4th early, capitalized on the fading Creed of Hefin and came on late, but couldn’t quite catch the winner and settled for 2ndCreed of Hefin may not have been able to keep up with the top 2, but even after fading he was still good enough to hold on for 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths behind the winner.

This week, the Future Stars Series finally looks for its first 2020 Bluegrass Derby contender!  We head to Kentucky, where 9 colts try to pick up their first allowance win in a NW2L Allowance at 7 furlongs on the dirt.  The field is:

#1 – Yankee Storm King (American Pharoah x Storm Cat x Kingmambo) – Owned by stepsutt67 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Yankee Storm King had no patience for his competition in his debut on April 1.  In that 5f MSW, he sprinted for the lead, opened up, and then eased his way to a ¾ length victory, earning a 73 SP.  That was enough for his owner to bump him up to the stakes level, where he tried a 6f dirt stakes and went off as the 7/2 favorite, but was unable to get the lead to set the early pace and then faded to 7th, earning a 70 SP.  Yankee Storm King is a scratch-bred horse who is one of 19 sim horses to share the American Pharoah x Storm Cat bloodlines.  Those 19 horses have resulted in 17 winners to date, 3 of whom are stakes winners and 1 of whom is a G2 winner.  American Pharoah more generally has been on fire both in the sim and the real world.  He is currently the #2 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 3 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) in 11 starts, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 198 runners and 138 winners to date.  Of those, 16 have earned stakes victories (4 graded stakes winners) so far (both the fewest of any of his sim crops thus far).  While the 2018 crop may not be his best, it does include American Dane, who was 2nd in the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (66% of earnings on dirt), with a slight preference towards routing that will likely become a little more preferred as he has more sim foals (his sim AWD is a 7.78). The majority of the horses are dirt sprinters.  Yankee Storm King (DI: 1.67; CD: 0.50) is looking to add to the tally of horses that share his bloodlines, but the first step to doing that is to defeat winners, and he looks like a solid bet to do that here.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Dalakhani Motor (Eavesdropper x Induction Motor [Dalakhani x Henrythenavigator]) – Owned by melmel2019 – 15/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-0; $34,844

Capsule: Through his first 3 races, Dalakhani Motor didn’t look all that special, never breaking a 65 SP or finishing better than 5th in an MSW, all with odds ranging from 16-34/1.  But that all changed in his most recent race on June 9, where he repeated the 6.5f distance for the 3rd time.  In that race, for the first time, he showed a real closing kick, coming from over 8 lengths back to win by 1-1/4 lengths at 39/1.  For the effort he earned a ridiculous 80 SP, seemingly out of nowhere, so the only question for this race is whether that was a fluke or a sign of maturity.  Dalakhani Motor is by Eavesdropper, and is the 6th foal out of 9yo mare Induction Motor.  Eavesdropper ($6,600) was a G3-placed sprinter during his racing career, and he has been standing in Libya for several years.  In the sim, Eavesdropper’s 2018 crop currently ranks #322 overall, with 26 runners and 13 winners to date.  One of those 13 is a stakes winner in an 8.5f turf race.  His sim foals have shown a slight preference for dirt (56% of earnings on dirt), but while the earnings suggest a route preference (60% of earnings in routes), the win percentages suggest a slight sprint favoritism, as does the 7.62 sim AWD, probably resulting from the fact that a significant percentage of stakes success has been in turf routes, even though his sim foals have almost double the number of wins in dirt sprints.  Induction Motor only raced 9 times in her career, and her lone win was in a $60K local maiden claimer where she was the 1/9 favorite, so she didn’t show much of a proclivity for racing.  Her foals haven’t done much either (only 2 of the 6 have an allowance win), but all of the foals have been turf runners, with a mix of routers and sprinters among them.  Dalakhani Motor (DI: 1.15; CD: 0.21) looks like he might want to be one of those routers, and if he can repeat his last performance, he may be one of the top contenders in this race.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – Ice Point (Ice Box x Simple Wish [Point Given x Nureyev]) – Owned by atwistoff – 11/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $20,220

Capsule: Ice Point looked pretty good in his debut on May 17.  In that 5.5f MSW in South Africa, Ice Point sat towards the back early but made a mid-race move, getting close to the leaders, and then easily overtook those in front and drew off to win by 1 length, earning a 70 SP at 15/1.  Ice Point is by Ice Given, and is the 7th foal out of 11yo mare Simple Wish.  Ice Box ($7,500), the #99 ranked Kentucky sire in 2018, won the 2010 Florida Derby and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby that year.  In the sim, Ice Box’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #661 overall, with 21 winners from 40 runners.  None of those horses have been successful at the stakes level, and in fact he has only had 1 stakes winner in the past 5 years.  Ice Box’s sim foals are largely dirt runners (71% of earnings on dirt), but unlike his real world running style, Ice Box’s sim foals have been sprinters thus far (61% in sprints), though his real world AWD of 7.23 indicates a longer distance for his foals than his sim 6.88 AWD.  Simple Wish won 5 of her 19 career races, all on the dirt with wins coming anywhere from 7-10.5f, though 3 of those 5 wins came at the claiming level.  As a broodmare, Simple Wish hasn’t been that impressive, and only her first foal, Cal Given (Cal Nation) even has an allowance win (in a dirt route).  The rest have only won at the maiden and/or claiming levels, with a mix of distances (mostly on the dirt though).  The Ice Box x Point Given cross has been used 1 other time in the sim in the past 5 years, but it’s a promising cross as that horse, Ice Box Ridge, was a G3–winning dirt sprinter.  Ice Point (DI: 2.43; CD: 0.58) looks to make it 2-for-2 today as he should be happy to get some extra distance to run.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Cuique Suum (Carpe Diem x Carson City x Northern Dancer) – Owned by jcasino – 6/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Cuique Suum began his career in a 6.5f dirt MSW on April 23 and didn’t disappoint.  There, he fell to the back of the 9 horse field early, but came flying late, grabbing the lead and taking the win by 1-1/4 lengths as the 5/1 5th choice, earning a 71 SP.  From there, he headed to residency company and tried the ESR Fillmore East Stakes at 6f, but he regressed a bit, breaking last and never showing a turn of foot, earning a 65 SP.  Cuique Suum is looking to bounce back here.  He is a scratch-bred son of Carpe Diem, who was crossed with a Carson City mare for the breeding.  Carpe Diem ($25,000) was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (8.5-9f) on the track, and is currently the #17 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 1 winner out of his 7 runners to have reached the track.  In the sim, Carpe Diem’s 2018 crop currently ranks #48 overall, with 84 winners out of 123 runners.  5 of those winners have found stakes success, though none of the 2018 crop have as of yet achieved a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals have a strong dirt preference (69% of earnings on dirt), while also showing a preference for sprinting (57% of earnings in sprints, 59% of wins in sprints).  His sim AWD of 7.18 also suggests a sprinting preference, but we’ll see how his real world crop looks to see if this will warrant an adjustment in the future.  Cuique Suum (DI: 3.62; CD: 0.97) was bred to sprint, so we’ll see if the added distance here will help, but if his past races are any indication he should be a little happier here.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Data Kiss (Freud x Saint Ballado x Smart Strike) – Owned by plano10 – 9/2

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Capsule: Data Kiss took the “easy” route in his debut, running in a Hot MSW at 6.5f on May 22.  The field included 7 horses, all from the same stables, as owner planoaxius decided to see which of his 2yos would be the most useful.  That honor seems to have gone to Data Kiss, who went off as the 4/1 3rd choice and sat towards the back early, but made a strong move in the stretch and pulled away to win by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a 73 SP.  Data Kiss is a scratch-bred son of Freud, out of a Saint Ballado mare.  Freud ($7,500) the #39 ranked US sire (and #1 ranked NY sire) in 2018, is a full brother to top sire Giant’s Causeway.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #130 overall, with 62 runners and 44 winners.  2 of those winners have been successful at the residency-restricted Local stakes level.  Overall, his sim foals are largely sprinters (64% of earnings in sprints), with a relatively even split between turf and dirt runners (55% on dirt), and his sim AWD of 6.69 closely tracks his real world AWD of 6.71.  This is the first time in the past 5 years that the Freud x Saint Ballado cross has been used in the sim.  Data Kiss (DI: 1.93; CD: 0.55) will try to prove that he belongs in non-hot competition and that his debut was no fluke.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Going Buckwild (Stonesider x Buckpasser Cadet [Empire Maker x Dubai Millennium]) – Owned by tiomundo4 – 15/1

Race Record: 5:1-0-1; $35,158

Capsule: Going Buckwild, the veteran of the field, was claimed for $50,000 out of his debut and broke his maiden in his first race for his new owner, in a 5f $100K Starter Allowance on February 15 where he took on 2 computer horses and 1 player-owned horse and easily cruised to a 2 length victory.  Since then, however, he has struggled in 3 allowance-level races at double digit odds in each one.  He enters this race off of a 5th place finish, where he earned his 2nd consecutive 70 SP while trying to come from the back of the pack.  Going Buckwild is the 2nd foal from 7yo Buckpasser Cadet, who was sent to the Giant’s Causeway sire Stonesider.  Buckpasser Cadet was a multiple stakes-placed filly on the track, with most of her 6 wins in 27 starts (and both stakes placings) coming in long distance turf races (14-16f-T).  Her first foal, 3yo Capo La Gala (Cape Blanco), retired after going winless in 9 starts.  Stonesider ($2,000), the #8 ranked sire in Texas in 2018, is a son of Giant’s Causeway and was 1 for 1 in his career on the track (a 5.5f MSW). His sim crops parallel his real life crops, as the 2018 sim class only has 3 runners to date, currently ranking #1,438 as 2 of those have won.  He only has 1 stakes winner since he became a sim sire, and that was in a residency-restricted local stakes race.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters (67% of earnings on dirt, 66% in sprints), which aligns with his 6.85 real world AWD and 6.61 sim AWD.  It’s unclear if a 7f dirt race is the best type of race for Going Buckwild (DI: 2.11; CD: 0.50), but he’ll try to improve off of his past races and move forward here.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – This Time Gold (Medaglia D’Oro x Northern Again [Awesome Again x Storm Bird]) – Owned by pilgrim10 – 8/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-0; $49,221

Capsule: This Time Gold began his career on the dirt, trying a 4.5f MSW on February 2 and acquitting himself pretty well, narrowly missing breaking his maiden and finishing 2nd by ¼ length.  But after a very dull 2nd start on dirt, he switched to the 6f on the turf and broke through, sitting midpack early and then just getting up to win by ¼ length, earning a 68 SP.  Unfortunately, his first try again winners in a NW2L on the turf was any dull effort, so he switches back to dirt here to see if this time he can earn gold.  This Time Gold is the 9th foal from 16yo mare Northern Again, and is by leading sire Medaglia D’Oro.  Northern Again won 5 of her 14 career starts, breaking her maiden in a dirt sprint but winning most of her races in turf routes.  Most of her sim foals have been routers, but they’ve found success – 2 are stakes winners, and 2 more are stakes-placed, with a pretty even split between those who prefer the turf and those who prefer the dirt.  Medaglia D’Oro ($200,000), the #12 ranked US sire in 2018, is equally adept in the sim, as his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #22 overall.  That sim crop includes 100 winners out of 158 runners, 9 of which have won stakes races (2 graded stakes winners).  Among those is Barbara Bites Back, winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1. His sim foals have a strong preference for routing (70% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 7.69 AWD and 8.28 sim AWD, and they have a slight favoritism towards dirt (61% on dirt).  The Medaglia D’Oro x Awesome Again cross has been used 27 times in the past 5 years, and although 23 of those have won races, only 1 is a stakes winner (a dirt sprinter).  The combination has actually shown a slight preference for routing, and a slightly greater preference for dirt racing.  This Time Gold (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.72) seems well suited for this distance and surface based on pedigree, but he’ll need to take a big step forward off of his past races to really compete here.

Watch Level: Low

#8 – Intoishe (Into Mischief x Oishe [Distorted Humor x Bernardini]) – Owned by given00 – 9/2

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Intoishe, the sponsor of the race, was a slow starter in his debut but made a big jump in race #2.  In that race, a 6.5f MSW on April 28, Intoishe sat towards the back early and moved forward late, running out of racing room just before the finish line and missing by a head, but he saw a big SP jump from 63 to 75 for the race.  The winner of that race came back to run 2nd with an 80 SP in an open allowance next time out.  Yankee Storm King, meanwhile, had no problem taking care of business in his 3rd race, sitting at the back early but closing to win by 1-1/4 length, with a 76 SP.  Intoishe is the first foal by 5yo mare Oishe, and is by Into Mischief.  Oishe was an excellent runner on the track, with 10 wins in her 22 race career.  Among those wins were 2 G2 dirt miles, which is where she did her best running.  Into Mischief ($150,000), the #4 ranked US sire in 2018, was a dirt sprinter in his racing career but he’s been known to throw a longer distance runner from time to time in the real world.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #11 overall, with 100 winners from 143 runners to date (and his 2019 crop is currently ranked #1).  Of those, only 5 have won a stakes, but 2 of those are Graded Stakes winners, including Sim Eclipse 2yo Dirt Colt of the Year Into Being Nice.  His sim foals, much like him in real life, are dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 60% in routes), though his sim AWD of 7.00 is a little longer than his real world AWD of 6.72.  Into Mischief has been bred to a Distorted Humor mare 17 times in the past 5 years, resulting in 12 winners, one of whom is a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  In fact, the overwhelming majority of those sim horses are dirt sprinters.  Intoishe (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.67) might be gearing up for a campaign in longer races, but today’s 7f distance should fit him perfectly and he is a top contender here.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Buzz Quality (Uncle Mo x Deputy Cat [Deputy Minister x Storm Cat]) – Owned by smokeglack – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $20,220

Capsule: Buzz Quality struggled mightily in his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW at 6.5f, where he broke towards the back and stayed there.  But he came back 1 month later, on May 30, and showed that he just needed to understand what it was like to race.  In that 5.5f MSW, he broke midpack early but picked off horses in the stretch, making his way through the pack and ultimately winning by ¾ length, earning a 68 SP.  Buzz Quality is by top sire Uncle Mo, and is the 10th foal out of stellar sim mare Deputy Cat.  Uncle Mo ($125,000), the #13 ranked US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-8.5f and has been a top real world sire for years.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #10 overall, with 127 winners from 185 runners to date.  7 of those have won stakes races, but only 1 thus far has earned a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals strongly prefer the dirt (75% of earnings on dirt), though there is a pretty even split between sprints and routes (7.37 sim AWD), which is a little surprising given Uncle Mo’s real world preference for routers (7.38 AWD; note that US AWDs are typically lower because of the prevalence of sprints).  Deputy Cat is the best producing sim mare that the Future Stars Series has profiled this year.  On the track, she was a 4 time stakes winning (and 9-time stakes placed) dirt sprinter who won 16 of her 56 career races.  In the breeding shed, she’s been even better, especially recently, with 5 of her 10 foals being stakes winners (and a 6th being stakes placed).  Among those are 5yo Buzzing Quality (Quality Road), the 2017 Sim Eclipse Award winning Dirt Sprinter, G1-winning 4yo dirt sprinter Fade Back to Black (Tapit), and G2-winning 3yo What Ever Ya Like (Union Rags), who is currently the #2-ranked 3yo dirt route colt who was 15th in the 2019 Bluegrass Derby.  Uncle Mo has been bred to a Deputy Minister mare 15 times in the past 5 years, resulting in 12 winners to date, one of whom is a G2-winning dirt sprinter, which is in line with the fact that most of the Uncle Mo x Deputy Minister sim horses are primarily dirt sprinters.  Buzz Quality’s (DI: 1.00; CD: 0.00) pedigree alone would make him the favorite in this race and a potential star in the future (as a behind-the-scenes aside, his pedigree alone is what put this race into the series; just under half of the total points assigned to this race are from his pedigree alone), but his on track performance may need to take a step up to really be competitive.

Watch Level: High

In my attempt to go on a 2-race winning streak, I’m struck by the fact that there seems to be almost no pace in this race.  And therefore, I’m gonna take the only horse who looks like he’s interested in being anywhere near the front half of the field.  So, I’m going with Yankee Storm King to win.  After that, I’ll take the sponsor Intoishe, followed by the deep closer who came out of nowhere in his last race in Dalakhani Motor.  Good luck to everyone!

Other races to watch this weekend:

1)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f-T

2)      Louisiana – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f

3)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6f

4)      Texas – Alw NW3L @ 7.5f-T

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f

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May 312019
 

As mentioned in last week’s Midyear Recap, this week the Future Stars Series is making a change…we’re heading to the 2yo ranks.  I’m hoping to update the race points system to better account for the fact that 2yos have very few career starts at this point, but this week we’re still using the old model.  Which means that this week, we’re headed to Kentucky, where a full field of 14 2yo fillies stretch out to 6.5f for a NW2L Allowance on the dirt.  Many of those fillies have only run once in their careers.  The field is:

#1 – Cats N Birds (Bird Song x Alley Cat [High Yield x Gone West]) – Owned by hoppybob – 25/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $35,406

Race History: One of the two veterans of the field, Cats N Birds also comes into this race as the longshot.  She had a poor debut on the turf back on March 24, but shifted over to the dirt and saw a solid improvement when she ran 4th in her second race.  She comes into this race off of her maiden score in a local 5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on May 11, where she led the field of 9 from the break and held on late, winning by ½ length and earning a career high 70 SP.  She takes on non-local company for the first time here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Bird Song, a multiple graded stakes winner at 8-8.5f out of Champion 3yo filly Bird Town, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $5,000.  His 2018 sim crop (current 3yos and his first crop) currently ranks #156 overall, with 37 winners from 72 runners winning at a 15% rate.  His 3yo crop includes 1 dirt sprinting stakes winner, and his 2yo crop includes a horse who broke her maiden in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes race.  Overall, his sim foals have preferred dirt sprints (72% of earnings on dirt, 78% in sprints).  Cats N Birds is the 4th foal from 18yo mare Alley Cat.  Alley Cat raced for quite a while, crossing a finish line 71 times, with 7 wins among them.  All 7 of those came in dirt sprints, where she spent most of her career.  She took a few shots at the stakes level, but was never able to finish better than 5th in her 4 career tries.  Her first 3 foals are spaced out in age, but only her most recent, 3yo Alley D’Wild (D’Wildcat), has really done anything on the track, as he’s found a niche in Louisiana local races, resulting in 4 wins from 13 career races thus far. He seems to be equally adept to turf and dirt, and to this point, he has spent his entire career sprinting.  Cats N Birds dosage is 4.60, with a CD of 0.86, indicating a strong sprinting preference.

Expectations: Cats N Birds broke through in her last race, which is nice to see, and she’ll take on non-local dirt company for the first time here.  She seems to like being out on the front, so expect her to bolt from the gate and try and set the pace here.  There are some questions about whether she overdoes it early, however, as she’s been tiring late in each of her 3 races and this will be her longest race to date.  But it’s possible that having the 3 race foundation under her will help improve her stamina; we’ll see here.

Watch Level: Low

#2 – Blues Explosion (Violence x Kabamezi [First Samurai x Smart Strike]) – Owned by saluki9 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Blues Explosion began her career at 5f on the dirt in Kentucky back on April 1.  On that day, she sat towards the back of a field of 10, but was only 2 lengths off the lead.  From there, she came running late, passing most of the field on her way to a 1 length victory, earning a 69 SP.  Although that race doesn’t look that strong (none of the field has broken their maidens yet), Blues Explosion will try to capitalize and move forward here.

Pedigree: Violence, the #45 overall (and #1 second-crop) US sire in 2018, was a G1 winner at 8.5f in his career and currently stands in Kentucky for $40,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently consists of 89 runners and 42 winners, winning at a 13.5% rate.  Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, including Got Them All, winner of the Wooden Indian-G1 and 17th in the Bluegrass Derby-G1.  Violence’s sim foals have shown a preference for dirt (68% of earnings on dirt), while being fairly evenly split between sprints and routes (52% in sprints, though his best sim foals have been routers), although his real world AWD of 6.63 indicates a higher preference for sprinting. Blues Explosion is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Kabamezi, the winner of 5 races in her 20 race career.  That career was spent primarily on the turf, with her fastest races coming at the 8f distance, though she was capable anywhere from 6-8.5f.  Her best foal to date is 4yo filly Kabasaluki (Warrior’s Reward), who just narrowly missed in an 8f stakes back in December 2018 and had a record of 11:6-5-0 going into her 4yo year (though she’s had a couple of rough starts as a 4yo).  Overall, Kabamezi’s foals have done their best running at 8f on the dirt.  There is one other Violence x First Samurai horse bred in the sim in the past 5 years, and he has been more of a turf runner, putting up some solid allowance runs in turf routes.  Blues Explosion’s dosage index of 2.43 and CD of 0.58 are, much like Violence’s other sim stats, a little conflicting but make it somewhat likely that she would prefer the mile range.

Expectations: Blues Explosion put something solid together in her first start, and it looks like she’ll be happier getting a little more ground.  Her two best siblings do their best running at 8f on the dirt, so she might end up liking distances slightly longer than this, but the stretch out here should at least make her happy.  Expect her to sit midpack or further back here and then try to make a move late.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Redarro (Cupid x She’s A Beast [Giant’s Causeway x Dynaformer]) – Owned by teesaggro0 – 10/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Race History: Redarro’s debut came back on April 26, when she took on a 6f dirt Hot MSW in Kentucky.  Her competition that day consisted of 1 CPU horse and 2 other fillies, so it wasn’t the strongest competition.  Still, Redarro did what you want to see when a horse takes on inferior completion; she made easy work of her opponents.  Sitting over 3 lengths back early, Redarro came flying late, easily passing the pacesetter and drawing off to win by 1-3/4.  She earned only a 61 SP in that win, but she steps up the competition today to prove that she belongs at this level.

Pedigree: Cupid, a graded stakes winner from 8.5f-10f, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $10,000.  His freshman 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #264 overall, with 44 winners from 77 runners to date, winning at a 14% rate.  The crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 scoring in dirt routes and the third in a turf sprint.  The class has shown a preference for dirt races overall (77% of earnings on dirt), though it’s still too early to tell a distance preference until 3yos can get more routes in.  Redarro is the 3rd foal from 7yo mare She’s a Beast.  She’s a Beast, out of a G1-winning mare, won 8 of her 22 career starts, spending most of that career at the 9-10f dirt distance (and showing some ability at even longer distances).  That career included a 2nd place finish in a 9.5f dirt stakes.  Her first two foals, however, have not shown quite as much talent early on.  4yo Knockingatthedoor (Tapit) is only now finding his way, as he has found the 12-16f distances to be more to his liking, whereas She’s A Beast’s 3yo filly has not yet broken her maiden after 7 starts, now running at the claiming level.  The Cupid x Giant’s Causeway cross has been used 5 times in the past 2 years, with 1 of those being more of a dirt router and one being a sprinter, but it’s too early in those careers to really draw any conclusions.  Redarro’s dosage index of 1.93 and CD of 0.41 indicate a preference for slightly longer races.

Expectations: There’s not a whole lot that we can glean from Redarro’s first career race, other than that it appears she prefers to come from behind.  That shouldn’t be a problem here, as she’ll have some speed to run into.  The hot race likely didn’t take much out of her, but it also didn’t give us much of an idea of how much talent, if any, this filly has.  We’ll see today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Dry Eyes (Palace Malice x Godspeed Hellbound [Dynaformer x Forty Niner]) – Owned by sparkit – 12/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $10,956

Race Record: One of the veterans in the field, Dry Eyes has already raced 3 times in her career.  She broke her maiden at first asking on February 2, in a 5.5f turf MSW in a field of 13.  There, she dueled for the lead early and grabbed it as they turned for home, pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 66 SP.  Dry Eyes regressed a little next time out at 5f on the turf, where she raced evenly and finished 5th (though the top 3 from that race have each gone on to win, including the winner of that NW2L event, who scored in a stakes race next time out). She enters this race off of a surface switch, as she tried dirt in a 6f local NW2L and again raced evenly, earning a career-high 67 SP but finishing 8th in the race (though the winner of that race also went on to stakes victory next time out, with a ridiculous 86 SP).  Dry Eyes will try to improve off of that run here.

Pedigree: Palace Malice, winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes, currently stakes for $15,000 in Kentucky but his real progeny have not yet hit the track.  In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #107, with 58 winners from 98 runners winning at a 15% rate (a little below his average of 16.5%).  Among those 58 winners are 2 stakes winners, Palace Stormer, who has been succeeding in turf sprints, and Into Malice, a dirt sprinter. In general, Palace Malice’s sim progeny have preferred dirt (77% of earnings on dirt), with a pretty even mix of sprints and routes.  He has had 1 graded stakes winner to date.    Dry Eyes is the 7th foal from 11yo mare Godspeed Hellbound, a winner of 7 races in her 30 race career.  In addition to those wins, she was a 3-time stakes placed horse at 8-10f on the turf (which is generally where she did her best running).  She hasn’t really passed down that ability to her foals, however, as only 2 of her 6 previous foals have picked up an allowance win.  There also doesn’t seem to be a common thread in terms of race type, as even though most of her foals’ wins have come on turf, some of their fastest races have been on dirt.  Palace Malice has been bred to a Dynaformer mare 6 times in the past 5 years, but only 1 of those 6 has picked up an allowance win (doing so in a long-distance turf race).  The fastest speeds for the combo have been on turf, though dirt races haven’t been bad either.  Dry Eyes’ dosage index of 1.40 and CD of 0.28 suggest that she wants to run much longer than today’s distance.

Expectations: Dry Eyes has an advantage over some in this field simply by having already raced 3 times.  Unfortunately, her last 2 efforts have left something to be desired.  But it turns out the winners from those races have been very strong horses, so she might be able to do something here coming from a few lengths off the pace.

Watch Level: Low

#5 – Ship The Kash (Midshipman x Kash Street [Street Cry x Bernardini]) – Owned by kashbarn – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Ship The Kash began her racing career in Iowa, in a 5f dirt MSW on April 13.  This filly only caught a field of 5 and went off as the even money favorite.  Sure enough, after sitting 4th early, 1-1/2 lengths back, she came on strong late and pulled away to win by 1 length.  More impressive was the 74 SP that she earned for the win.  The horse that Ship The Kash defeated would come back next time out to break her own maiden with a 72 SP.  Ship The Kash stretches out to 6.5f here as she tries to duplicate her last performance.

Pedigree: Midshipman, winner of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was the #66 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $8,500.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #247 overall, with 27 winners from 46 runners, winning at a 17.5% rate.  One of those winners found victory in an ASR residency-restricted stakes at 8f on the dirt.  But in general, Midshipman’s sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 62% in sprints), which is in line with his real world 6.71 AWD.  Ship The Kash is the 2nd foal from 7yo mare Kash Street.  Kash Street was a winner of 5 races out of her 30 career efforts, though she ran 2nd or 3rd in 18 of the 30, only running worse than 4th twice on dirt.  Most of her career was spent in dirt route allowances, with her best coming in the 9-10f range.  She did get close to a graded stakes placing, finishing 4th in her only career stakes effort in the 2017 King Classic-G2, although she was beaten 11 lengths in that race.  Her first foal, Kash Profit (Tapit), has shown some serious promise thus far, with 3 wins from 7 career starts (though he stumbled in his attempt at the California Derby-G1, where he finished a well-beaten 12th).  Midshipman has been bred to a Street Cry mare 7 times in the past 5 years, with 5 of those 7 earning a win thus far.  The best have been dirt sprinters to date.  Ship The Kash’s dosage index of 3.57 and CD of 0.81 put this 6.5f race right in line with what her pedigree suggests she wants.

Expectations: It was a dominant performance out of the gate for Ship The Kash, made even more impressive by the fact that she only took on 4 opponents.  She should sit midpack or further back in this race, and will try to progress late to repeat her last run.  She definitely has potential, but can she sustain it?

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Renown Runner (Anchor Down x Hushwing Stebbing [Elusive Quality x Royal Academy]) – Owned by hoosier12 – 13/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,080

Race History: Renown Runner is one of the few to have tried this distance already.  In her debut back on April 14 at 6.5f on the dirt, she took on a field of 6, and although she was the 4th choice at 9/2, she grabbed the lead early and never looked back, easily winning by 2-1/4 lengths.  She earned a 68 SP in the win.  The 3rd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 76 SP, so expect Renown Runner to potentially show some improvement here.

Pedigree: Anchor Down, a G2-winning dirt miler (who was 2nd to Frosted in the 2016 Met Mile), currently stands for $7,500 and entered stud in Kentucky in 2017, so none of his real life foals have hit the track.  His 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently includes 56 runners, 29 of which have won at a 13.5% rate.  Among those is 1 stakes winner, who picked up that win in a short turf sprint, but in general his sim horses have largely preferred dirt sprints (73% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints). Renown Runner is the 6th foal from 9yo mare Hushwing Stebbing.  Hushwing Stebbing won 2 races in her 29 race career, but neither win was all that impressive.  Most of her races, and her best efforts, came in dirt routes, though she was never really more than a claimer.  Her foals have done slightly better than she ever did; her first foal, LV Excalibur (Hansen) was primarily a local dirt router in South Korea, but did pick up a local residency-restricted stakes win as well as some other local stakes placings, in dirt routes ranging anywhere from 8-16f.  The only other real consistent runner, Hushwing Algo LV (Algorithms), was best in the 8-9f dirt range.  The Anchor Down x Elusive Quality cross has been used 1 other time, but thus far the 3yo gelding has shown no real interest in racing.  Renown Runner’s dosage index is 3.44, with a 0.75 CD, indicating a preference for sprinting.

Expectations: Renown Runner set the pace in her first race, but she’s facing a much larger field here and might have trouble doing that again.  The bloodlines aren’t particularly strong here, with a bargain sire out of a hot allowance-winning mare, but that doesn’t mean Renown Runner can’t outrun her lineage.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Stone of Orbos (Henny Hughes x Priceless Gift [Cherokee Run x Dixie Union]) – Owned by golfteam3 – 12/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Stone of Orbos made her debut on April 19 in a 5f dirt MSW at Iowa.  She broke a step slow in the field of 9, dropping 3 lengths back early, but got into the race late and came flying at the end, just barely getting up to win the photo by a nose.  She earned a 67 SP for her win as the 4/1 3rd choice.  The 4th place runner from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 67 SP.  Stone of Orbos will try to make things a little easier on herself this time as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Henny Hughes, a multiple G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Japan for 3.5MM Yen and was the #24 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop took a big leap over earlier crops, currently ranking #50 overall with 94 runners and 61 winners, winning at a 19% rate.  2 of those runners have achieved stakes victories, one in a short sprint on dirt and one in a sprint on turf.  Much like the real horse, Henny Hughes’ sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints).  Stone of Orbos is the 6th foal (all fillies) from 12yo mare Priceless Gift, who won 9 of her 47 career races.  Nearly all of those came on the dirt, and although she has a fair number of route efforts to her name, most of Priceless Gift’s success came in dirt sprints.  Her best races actually came on the off track.  Her foals have done ok for themselves, with most of them turning out to be dirt sprinters like their mother.  One of her foals, Four Houses (Lion Heart) is a multiple stakes placed filly at 6.5f on the dirt.  Stone of Orbos’s dosage index doesn’t really tell us much, as there are only 2 chef-de-race point involved (he has a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 1.00).

Expectations: Stone of Orbos took a somewhat surprising route to victory in her first race, as she dropped to the back of the pack in a 5f race and still came on to win.  This filly really seems to have a nose for where the finish line is.  Her speed figure may not be as high as some of the others in here, but she’s got an interesting look to her and she should like the added distance today.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – Loose Cash (Blame x A.P. Indy x Unbridled) – Owned by gliffo8 - 5/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Loose Cash debuted at today’s 6.5f dirt distance in Kentucky back on April 11, and did it in style.  Off as the 4/1 4th choice, Loose Cash dueled for the lead early and quickly put away the other challenger, opening up to lead by 1-1/4 and then maintaining that lead through the finish.  Loose Cash earned a strong 73 SP in the victory, though none of her competition from that race has backed her up (no one has finished better than 3rd, or cracked the 70 SP, in their follow-ups).  Loose Cash will look to repeat that performance here.

Pedigree: Blame, the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $30,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #131 overall, with 41 winners from 84 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.52 AWD.  The cream of the 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 5 in dirt sprints, including the graded stakes wins at 7f.  There are 22 sim horses that share the Blame x A.P. Indy bloodlines over the past 5 years.  Of those, 6 have found the winner’s circle in stakes races, primarily in dirt routes (or longer), with 3 achieving graded stakes victories.  However, most of the Blame x A.P. Indy horses are later bloomers – although half broke their maidens as a 2yo, only 2 of the 22 horses managed to win at the allowance level as a 2yo.  Loose Cash’s 2.73 dosage index and 0.64 CD show that much like the others with similar bloodlines, she might prefer longer distances than today’s race.

Expectations: Loose Cash already has the experience at this distance and put up one of the fastest prior races in the field.  Coupled with her solid bloodlines, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.  The one drawback is that she might prefer longer distances that today’s.  Granted, you won’t get that for a 2yo at this point in the year, so Loose Cash really only has more room to grow as the races get longer.

Watch Level: High

#9 – We Gotta Talk (Curlin x A.P. Indy x Private Account) – Owned by 4stardave – 9/2 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: We Gotta Talk got her career off on the right foot first time out.  Taking on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky, We Gotta Talk battled the pace early, but when the other pacesetters couldn’t keep up, she inherited the lead and never looked back.  We Gotta Talk won by a clear length, earning a 71 SP, and none of her competitors really gained any ground on her late.  The 4th place horse from that race took a huge leap next time out to win an MSW, though 2nd and 3rd from the race didn’t see much of a jump next time out and are still looking to break their maidens.  We Gotta Talk will try to make it 2 for 2 here.

Pedigree: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #26 overall, with 102 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.  That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.  Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.  The Curlin x A.P. Indy cross has resulted in 55 runners over the past 5 years, 42 of which (76%) are winners.  7 of those have earned stakes victories (though none have found Graded Stakes success just yet), with the majority of those pulling off the feat in dirt routes.  41% of the Curlin x A.P. Indy 2yos that broke their maiden as a 2yo have gone on to win an allowance race as a 2yo.  We Gotta Talk’s dosage index of 3.29 and CD of 0.73 suggest that she might love sprinting here.

Expectations: We Gotta Talk put together a strong debut, where she went off as the 3/1 favorite and ran like it.  She should be forwardly placed again here, and the bloodlines look like they produce solid 2yos.  We Gotta Talk might be happier once the races stretch out even more, but repeating at 6.5f to start her career won’t hurt.

Watch Level: High

#10 – By Var The Best (Var x Given Away Kash [Any Given Saturday x Dynaformer] – Owned by onamission – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: By Var The Best kicked off her career on April 13 in a 5f dirt MSW in Iowa.  Taking on a field of 4, she sat last early, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back before turning on the jets.  But she turned them on without a problem and crossed the finish line ¾ length ahead, earning a 72 SP as the 6/5 favorite.  She’ll stretch out some here as she tries to pick up win #2.

Pedigree: Var, a G1 winning turf sprinter, was the #3 ranked South African sire in 2018.  His sim foals are slowly starting the catch up to that, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 54 winners from 72 runners, winning at an 18% rate.  2 of those 54 have found stakes victories, one who is a stakes winner at 7.5f on the dirt and G3-placed at 8f, and the other who is a stakes winner at 5-6f on the dirt.  His sim foals have primarily been sprinters (67% of earnings in sprints), with an ever-so-slight preference for dirt (56% on dirt).  By Var The Best is the 5th foal from 10yo mare Given Away Kash.  Given Away Kash won 6 of her 39 career races, but really excelled as a 2yo, winning 2 stakes races in dirt sprints in her 2nd and 3rd career starts.  She also ended up as a stakes placed turf sprinter and turf routers, and actually put up her best speed figures at 8f on the dirt.  Her first foal, 6yo mare Collecting Kash (City Place), inherited a fair amount of her mother’s talent, and was 4-time stakes placed at 8.5-9.5f on both turf and dirt.  The other founds haven’t found quite as much hardware and instead preferring to dominate the claiming and starter ranks.  Var has been bred to an Any Given Saturday mare 3 times in the past 5 years, though neither of the others have done much of note on the track.  Unlike most of Var’s foals, the dosage index of By Var The Best says that his best races will be much longer, with a 1.67 DI and a 0.38 CD.

Expectations: By Var The Best found an easy spot in her first race but capitalized on it, putting up a strong speed figure for this field.  The indications are that she likes to make a late run, so expect her to sit somewhere in the middle or further back.  By Var The Best doesn’t have the bluest of bloodlines, though it’s also not quite the bargain bloodlines of some of the others in this field.  There’s potential here for a breakout 2yo campaign.

Watch Level: Medium

#11 – Rowdy Cura Storm (Curandero x Pomeroy Storm [Pomeroy x Storm Cat]) – Owned by simhorse16 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $16,860

Race History: The oddsmakers might not like Rowdy Cura Storm’s debut, but it was a solid run nonetheless.  Taking on a 5.5f dirt MSW in Ohio on April 17, Rowdy Cura Storm broke very slow and started 11th in a field of 13, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back.  But she came flying late, circling the entire field in time to get up to win by ¼ length at 14/1.  The speed figure was only a 66, but the horse she edged out would come back to break her maiden next time out with a 71 SP.  Rowdy Cura Storm looks to prove that her last race was no fluke as she stretches out a bit here.

Pedigree: Curandero, an unraced son of Storm Cat out of a Forty Niner mare, currently stands in Texas for $1,000 and was the #57 ranked Texas sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop ranks #1,001 overall, but that’s because it only contains 6 runners, 3 of which have won at an insane 26% rate.  That number is buoyed by The Alamo, who has been very successful in the local claiming ranks, mostly on the turf in the 7-8.5f range.  Curandero does have 1 sim stakes winner in 4yo Fairhope, a stakes winner and G3-placed colt at 7.5f on the dirt.   His foals at usually sprints (67% of earnings in sprints), but have a pretty even split on surfaces (52% on dirt, though that might owe to his few best foals being solid dirt horses while most others prefer turf).  Rowdy Cura Storm is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Pomeroy Storm.  Pomeroy Storm debuted as a 3yo and looked pretty good early, winning 3 of her first 4 races and 4 of her first 6 (including 2 local allowances), but she was never again able to find the winner’s circle in her 31 career races.  She proved to be a dirt runner, preferring anywhere from 6-8f.  Her first 3 foals have all been dirt sprinters but none has been all that impressive, with only 1 combined allowance win in 42 total races.  Rowdy Cura Storm’s DI of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right about average distances based on her bloodlines (which are 2×3 inbred to Storm Cat).

Expectations: Rowdy Cura Storm is a bargain bred horse, and thus the oddsmakers may not like her, but her last race was a solid run.  She gets another furlong here, which doesn’t look like it will hurt her, and she showed a closing kick in her first race when coming from the back.  But her speed in her first race was a little behind the best in here, and it looks like she’ll need to take a step forward to really stamp herself as legit here.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Vale Redoute (Schoolyard Dreams x Redoustina [Redoute’s Choice x Crafty Prospector]) – Owned by superfecta – 22/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Vale Redoute pulled off a bit of an upset in her debut.  Going off at 13/1 in a field of 9 in a 5f dirt MSW at Kentucky on April 4, Vale Redoute dropped back early, sitting about 2 lengths back.  She started to move up as they reach the top of the stretch and then came on strong late, just getting up to win by ¾ length.  The win earned her a 64 SP.  Of note, the 2nd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 65 SP.  Vale Redoute will try to extend that late run here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Schoolyard Dreams, a multiple graded stakes placed dirt miler, entered stud in Canada in 2015 and currently stands for $2,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #1,063, with 11 winners from 21 runners to date, winning at a 21.5% rate.  The sim foals have largely been dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 76% in sprints), and although none have achieved stakes victories yet (and only 4 have allowance wins), Flew Too High has been by far the most successful foal thus far, finishing 2nd in The Rebel Yell-G3 at 8.5f on the dirt.  Vale Redoute is the 5th foal from 13yo mare Redoustina, a 3-time stakes winner and G3-placed dirt sprinter.  Redoustina did most of her damage in the 5.5-6.5f range (though she has a stakes win at 7.5f as well).  Her foals, however, seem to be hit-or-miss, with an emphasis on the miss.  The one exception to that is 6yo Creedoustina (Jimmy Creed), who managed to pick up a stakes win at 5.5f to end his 3yo campaign en route to 6 wins from 22 starts thus far.  Vale Redoute’s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right in the middle when it comes to preferred distances.

Expectations: Vale Redoute has a solid backend to her pedigree, though her bargain sire is likely the reason she went off at 13/1 in her debut and is 22/1 today.  But that doesn’t mean that this filly can’t be great.  Her debut race was a solid one as she came from behind to take the victory, and the added distance here doesn’t hurt.  She may need to step it up a notch here in order to win, but it’s not ridiculous to think that she could.

Watch Level: Medium

#13 – Yankee Justine (Justify x Yankee Cinnamon [Giant’s Causeway x Tale of the Cat]) – Owned by Yankeetown – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $39,340

Race History: The sponsor of this race, Yankee Justine is one of the few with more than 1 career race under her belt.  Her debut came back on February 2 in a 4.5f dirt MSW at Kentucky.  In a field of 11, she battled the pace early but couldn’t quite keep up late, finishing 3rd and earning a 64 SP.  But the race did her good, and Yankee Justine would go on to win her 2nd race, a 5.5f MSW on April 6, by 1 length after sitting just off the pace early.  She earned a 69 SP in the win.  The 2nd place horse in her most recent race would run 2nd again next time out at the MSW level.  Yankee Justine stretches out again to 6.5f here.

Pedigree: Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, currently stands in Kentucky for $150,000.  His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 27 winners from 88 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with one colt having picked up a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win to kick off his career (and most recently was 4th in the Vermont BB Juvenile-G2 at 6f on the dirt). Yankee Justine is the first foal from 4yo early-retired mare Yankee Cinnamon.  Yankee Cinnamon was a stakes winner who earned 10 wins in her 20 race career.  Her one stakes win came in career start #2, where she took home a 5f dirt 2yo stakes.  But most of her career was spent at the hot allowance level, with the slight majority of her races and wins coming in turf routes, but her fastest speed figures coming in dirt routes.  Only 2 of the 4 foals by Justify out of a Giant’s Causeway mare have hit the track yet, and Yankee Justine is the only one with a win.  With a dosage index of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38, Yankee Justice might be biding her time for longer races later in the year.

Expectations: Yankee Justine’s first 2 races have seen her sit just off the pacesetters early, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her forwardly placed here.  For a sire pedigree line, she is quite the blue blood, and one would expect her to get better as the distances increase. But I’m not sure the dam was quite as strong as she first looks on paper (though the dam’s line has a G3 winner and a G3-placed horse as the granddam and great-granddam, so there’s some promise in the bloodlines.

Watch Level: High

#14 – Lady Tornado (Toronado x Lady Grinning Soul [Palace Malice x Dansili (GB)]) – Owned by leeleea21 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,680

Race History: Lady Tornado is the only filly in this field to have debuted at the claiming level. She kicked off her career on April 6 in a $20,000 MCL at 5.5f on the dirt in Illinois.  Running against a field of 4, she went off as the co-favorite at even money, and took off for the lead, never looking back.  She set the early pace and then drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths, with a 57 SP.  Of note, the 2nd and 4th place horses in that race came back at the MCL level next time out and finished 3rd and 5th, respectively.  Lady Tornado makes the jump to the allowance level here to see if she can compete with the big girls.

Pedigree: Toronado, a multiple G1 winning turf miler in the UK, was the #162 ranked French sire in 2018 (it may have been his first crop) and currently stands in France for $12,000.  Toronado’s 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #855 overall, with 20 winners from 37 runners winning at a 9% rate.  None of those horses has had stakes success yet, though one was G2-placed as a 2yo in a turf mile.  His sim foals significantly favor the turf (78% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even sprint/route split (53% in routes).  Lady Tornado is the second foal from 5yo mare Lady Grinning Soul, who won 2 of 26 races in her career.  Her maiden win was at 8f on the turf in a hot race, and her only other win was in a $20K claimer at 8.5f. Most of her races came on the turf in the 7-8.5f range, though she did her best running around the mile.  Her first foal, 3yo Brody’s Grinning (Brody’s Cause), seemed to take a little while to get going but now has a 6:1-1-4 record, starting to excel as a deep closer as he stretches out.  Lady Tornado’s dosage index of 1.22 and CD of 0.20 indicate a preference for longer races.

Expectations: Lady Tornado wasn’t the most highly touted 2yo to debut and doesn’t have the greatest bloodlines, but she did what she needed to do in her debut effort.  She went unclaimed so her owner has decided to see if she has the ability to compete at a higher level.  The speed figure from her debut is well below the others in this field, but the race setup didn’t require her to work any harder, so we expect to see some improvement here.  The only question is whether it will be enough improvement.

Watch Level: Low

That’s your field of 14 for this first 2yo Future Stars Series race.  Normally, I’d give my predictions, but I have no clue how to handicap a 2yo race where 11 of the 14 horses have only run once.  So my completely arbitrary predictions are: (1) Loose Cash; (2) Renown Runner; (3) We Gotta Talk.  Good luck!

Other 2yo Races To Watch This Weekend:

1)      Berkshire-ENG – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f

2)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f

3)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f-T

4)      Texas – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f (Fillies)

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Oct 292015
 

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile

Kentucky (KY) | Saturday, October 23, 2015 | 2:40 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 2yos Only | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile plays host to some of the world’s best dirt rookies, including the second rated two-year old dirt horse in the world STORM CAT HUMOR, third rated in the dirt rookie category LION’S SLEW, and fifth rated horse in the category LIGHTNING STRIFE, among others. With fourteen owners trying to give their horses the best chance at winning the biggest two-year-old race in the world, it should be a great one. Let’s go now to the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile.

    1     HADROSAUR (SKOR) lost will last time out in the North Fork GI, falling from first to tenth in that outing. He is by HANSEN out of stakes winning mare SOUR GOLF, but this is her only stakes winning (and graded stakes winning) foal. His only notable win is the GIII Pea Patch Juvenile two starts back. The colt may have trouble with his up-front running style, with several other of those types of runners attempting the Juvy. This could be a tough one for the youngster, and he’s a longshot at 17-1. His owner was not available to comment on him.

|   2   | LINGERING SMOKE (USA) is stepping up from the GIII level with his first major win (and start) of his career on Saturday. This scratch-bred is by DROSSELMEYER and uses the DS DEHERE, which seems to have been a pretty potent mix. His only major win was the GIII Charcoal Breeder’s Cup. Racing on the slop for that one and racing in a route for the second time, he looked dominant. However, it’s a massive undertaking to go from a GIII to the BB. He’s gonna need to sweat for all he’s worth to win this one. Steve555 did not comment on his horse’s chances.

    3     BLANK SPACE (USA) is also a GIII stepper, coming up from a win in the Times Square Derby. By TAPIT, and out of GI winning mare TAYLOR’S STORY (who is also out of a GI winner), his pedigree was very promising, and as a two-year-old GIII winner, I’d say he’s lived up to expectations. With his first major win last time, and a 100 SP, he looks good into the race. However, he is also going to have to run strongly to beat this strong bunch. The colt is 7-1, but unfortunately, Deyoto was unavailable for an interview.

    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE (USA) comes off the first grade one win of his career. His big wins have been the GIII Trixy Delight’s Special and the GI North Fork Stakes. By superstar AWESOME AGAIN, and out of the stakes winning mare MAGPIES CAT- who has produced two GI winners, two GII winners and two other stakes winners, this colt is incredibly well bred. Very impressive last time in the GI North Fork Stakes, this colt swept by foes to win- seemingly easily. This colt has a fantastic career ahead of him, especially if he wins the BB Juvenile. A good bet at 7-1. Here’s the word from trainer Punter34: “Pretty happy with how the horse has progressed and hoping he will give a good show. Been playing this game long enough to know anything can happen but wouldn’t swap my horse for anything. Hopefully he can get a nice position and finish off like he has been.”

    5     PULPASNITZ (USA) has GI experience, finishing third last time in the North Fork Stakes. By SNITZEL and out of a mare who is yet to produce a stakes winner (yes, including this colt), his breeding was no guarantee. Nonetheless, the colt can produce with a good move in the North Fork. Racing against many horses who were also in that grade one, he will need to step it up, but has a good chance led by N Lawton, the rider who guided him in that North Fork Stakes. The horse has the talent, but he will need a good trip. I’d take his odds of 15-1, at least in your pick four. I could not find Sixesplus (a singular stable, with just eleven horses), this horse’s owner.

    6     DEADMONEY CADET (USA) comes up from an End Of The Line Futurity GI, where he actually gained late, but lost a position, as he finished third by a neck. He doesn’t have any major wins besides a listed stakes (the June Stakes 100k), but has been close in his past two. A scratch-bred by great sire MORE THAN READY, with the DS UNBRIDLED’S SONG, his breeding is spectacular, and he’s currently looking very promising. A colt that can get it done at 9-1 off a good performance. Here’s what Cadet had to say: “DEADMONEY CADET is pretty game and has been training sharply. We have been working him in company behind horses to get him to rate his speed a bit more. I feel he was a bit dead in the stretch in his last run and will need to improve his kick in order to get the top spot in the BB. DEADMONEY has shown top class and guts this year grinding out a couple graded placings, I feel a similar effort in the BB would be satisfactory, obviously getting as many graded points towards the derby is the plan. A lot of talented 2 yr olds are in the entry box and a couple that have already posted triple digit figures. Looks like might be a top 5 choice, but the only one without graded success. A change in tactics, third run at two turns, a little improvement, a lot of racing luck, and we feel he might just be good enough.”

    7     VYRANTIUM (USA) is one of the more experienced of the bunch, with four wins from seven starts. He’s got one listed stakes victory and one major win in the GII Hoserhead Stakes. By very good sire MORE THAN READY and out of stakes winning mare BREAKNECK, who has produced one GII winner (this colt) and two other stakes winners among five runners. In his past two, she was third by three lengths in the Hopeless Stakes GI, and moving into a routing contest for the first time, the distance clearly helped, as he was second by only a head in that contest (to NUREYEV’S GHOST), while switching to his regular jock’s brother, R Radzinski. Today I think the colt has a very good chance, but the shorter rest may hinder the youngster. Nonetheless, he looks sharp at 7-1, and his trainer said this: “There’s good news and bad news going into the race for me. Good news is his mare was best at 8.5/9F. Bad news is his siblings have been better sprinting. Tough race with a lot of runners who have already won routing – something my guy hasn’t done. I could win or run last – it looks to be a very competitive race.”

    8     STORM CAT HUMOR (USA) is off a terrific three race winning streak, in which all of her major wins have occurred. Those are: the GIII Montana Futurity, the GII Standford, and the GI Dell Computer Futurity. A scratch-bred by DISTORTED HUMOR, using STORM CAT as the dam-sire, the breeding has clearly been effective. With the most earnings of any starter ($801,360), he’s improving with every run. The colt however, does not have any route experience, though he did seem to enjoy seven furlongs last time. His mid-pack style could suit today’s distance, but it’s hard to tell his abilities as a router. He still looks very good. He’s 8-1, and here’s what his owner had to say: “This has been one of my favorite horses in the barn. After starting his career overseas I brought him to the states back in June with this race as the goal. He has proved to be a top sprinter but I think he could get better as he stretches out. I mapped out his path to this race early and wanted him to have a little break before this race. He won the Dell Computer Futurity very easily and looked like he had plenty left in that race. Think he has a big chance here.”

    9     MAKE EM BELIEVE (USA) bounced back well in the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile, following a poor performance in the GII Hoserhead Juvenile GII. By MACHO UNO and out of a GII winning mare JUPITER THE SEA, the good breeding has paid off. With major wins in the GII Vermont BB Juvenile and the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile. He looks sharp coming off a nice win in a route for the first time, and he looks good for all exotic wagering at 13-1. His owner, Mrxrayz, could not be found to comment on any of his three runners.

   10    KAMDEN (USA) enters just the third race of his career, taking a sharp step up to the GI level from allowance last time. No major wins to date. This scratch-bred is by BLAME, with the dam-sire A. P. INDY, and is well bred. After a maiden win with an 84 SP, he was second in his NW2l allowance. Taking a very big step, he then made a move for the North Fork Stakes GI and was beaten by none other than LIGHTNING STRIFE, finishing second by two lengths. This colt shows a lot of potential, and can very well win the Juvy in the fourth start of his career. You’ll find 11-1 on him. No word from his trainer.

   11    LION’S SLEW (TUR) represents one of two international-born colts, and looks very good to take it for Turkey. He’s a scratch-bred by LION HEART, and the dam-sire SEATTLE SLEW. This colt won the Hopeless Stakes GI in his most recent (his only major win), going wire-to-wire. His career high SP jumped from an 86 to a 98 as well in that contest, and he now switches to two turn racing for the first time. Guided by A Jolly, who is a slight downgrade from T Ace- who he got last time, but this horse looks ready to go. A good choice at a fantastic 11-1. His owner, Stockswami said this: “He has been a real joy to be around. He is less then 1/2 length from being a perfect 6 for 6. Like many of the top horses at this stage he has shown a tendency to jump right to the front and see if anyone can catch him. So far that has been a winning formula but with many horses wanting to run the same type race, this should be a fun one to watch. If he can get the distance he could be tough.”

   12    MACH THREE LAUNCH (USA) moves up from his second GIII in a row, catching by half a length in his latest at a mile. By MACHO UNO out of REDHEAD NICOLE, who has three stakes winners (including this colt) in her progeny count. After a big win, the colt gets jockey S Ledwith, and needs a good trip to get it done. From a GIII to the Breeder’s Bowl is a tough step. He’s 12-1. Again, Mrxrayz could not be found for a comment.

   13    NUREYEV’S GHOST (USA) recently scored his first GI win, going wire-to-wire in the End Of The Line Futurity, and headbobbed his way to victory to win by a head. That was his only major win to date. The scratch-bred by GHOSTZAPPER has now covered his breeding cost and more. Of five races, the colt has a maiden win, allowance win, and GI win, while finishing third in one of two listed stakes starts. This colt has a lot of early speed and looks worthy of a Breeder’s Bowl win with a most recent 97 speed rating. He’s 7-1, and we’ll go to trainer Stockswami to comment on one of his three entries: “He is another horse that likes to get out in front and let everyone else play catch up. The one thing he has over my other two horses is he has shown he can get this distance. He seems to be improving the more distance he runs. He also gets one of the top Jockeys in the world, so think he has a good shot of being somewhere close at the finish.”

   14    GIANT STORM BREWIN (USA) was a live third in the Sparkling Wine Stakes GI, and will look to improve on that performance here. He’s got no major wins to his name, but two big ITM finishes. By GIO PONTI out of allowance winning dam NORTHWEST PASSAGE II (the first one was unsafe?) who has one stakes winner and one GII winner as her notable offspring. He looks for his first stakes win, and that could be a tough undertaking in a BB race. He’s a nice horse, but from the fourteen hole, it’ll be tough. He’s 12-1, and here’s what his connections say: “GIANT STORM BREWIN should relish the extra half furlong. I had high hopes early in his career after winning his first two starts, but he was pretty mediocre after that…until he really surprised me in the G2 7f race. I really just threw him in there because there weren’t any good matching conditions available. He really surprised there and followed up with the 3rd in the G1 to earn his chance. Honestly, I’m good with wherever he finishes because I really had no expectations in either of those previous two. Jock “J Dawg” has really seemed to get extra out of him so hoping he chooses on this week.” Unfortunately, it looks like J Dawg has chosen to bypass the Juvenile.

My Selections

1-    8     STORM CAT HUMOR

2-    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE

3-    7     VYRANTIUM

Longshot Play-   11    LION’S SLEW

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The Humane Distaff

 Posted by at 4:27 pm  Previews
May 022014
 

Its Derby week here in Kentucky, and although not the big draw on Saturday, there are plenty of exciting undercard races to fill up the afternoon to the Bluegrass Derby (G1). One of these races is The Humane Distaff (G1), a Grade I race at seven furlongs over the main dirt track. The race is open to fillies and mares, four-years of age and older. The race this year drew nearly a full field of thirteen horses. Lets take a look at each of the contenders going into the starting gate in The Humane Distaff (G1) this year.

1. Quality Zone – (Quality Road x Machiavellian x Northern Dancer) – nitro93 – G. De – 10/1

Making the first graded start of her career this weekend, the brown four-year-old filly is an accomplished listed stakes winner and has won eight times in her eighteen start racing career. The most recent start for the filly came in Baby Nop Dirt Mare Special, a listed stakes race over seven furlongs. The filly broke out of the gate over what was a sloppy dirt course and settled back in third off a few other horses, gained some ground midway through the race, but faded in the stretch to finish fourth, two and a quarter lengths off the pace. The filly set a speed figure of one hundred six for the race. The most recent win for the filly came last December during an allowance race at seven furlongs in Idaho. She broke just behind the front runner by a head, but quickly took over the lead and eventually won the race by  three and a half lengths. The filly will likely be forwardly placed on Saturday, probably no farther back than fourth,

2. Slew Betcha (ENG) – (Dansili (GB) x Mr. Prospector x Seattle Slew) - pointblank – M. Clooch – 11/1

A Grade I winner already after a sixteen start career, the English-bred chestnut four-year-old will be looking for her fifth career win this weekend in the Humane Distaff (G1). The most recent start for the filly came in New York during The Long Island Sprint (G2) over six furlongs. The filly came out of the gate and settled just off a few other horses in fifth but faded badly in the stretch to cross the wire in ninth, five lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of one hundred. The latest victory for the filly also came in New York, this as a three-year-old last year during The Priceless (G1) on a dirt track rated as good. The filly won that race in wire to wire fashion by half a length. Out of the gate on Saturday the filly will likely be placed up towards the front and could be a possible pacesetter in the race.

3. Charge The Mound – (Smart Strike x Rahy x Vice Regent) - wetfast – V. Jef – 9/1

In the third slot, this five-year-old filly has made eighteen lifetime starts and is graded placed, but still looking for that elusive graded win. The chestnut filly, winner of nine races so far in her career, made her most recent start here in Kentucky during The Virginia Madison (G2) over seven furlongs. Breaking out of the gate and settling back in the the fifth slot early on, the filly was urged to start moving forward midway through the race and crossed the wire in second, behind by just half a length and setting a speed figure of one hundred seven. The most recent win for the filly came in January during the Dragonbringer Dirt Mare Sprint, a listed stakes race over five furlongs. She was placed a little more forwardly in this race early on, hanging just off the pace of a couple of front runners in third, before moving to the lead midway through the race and going on to win by one and a quarter lengths. The filly will probably be placed mid-pack out of the gate on Saturday, but could possibly be placed up as close as fifth out of the gate.

4. Strikestar  – (Smart Strike x A.P. Indy x Storm Cat) - axemjack86 – D. Coleman – 6/1

Out of the Grade II winning broodmare Cat Five Storm, this five-year-old mare will be making her twentieth career start in the Humane Distaff (G1) t his weekend. The chestnut mare has already attained a Grade I victory for herself. She too made her most recent start in The Long Island Sprint (G2) over six furlongs. In this race the mare went straight to the lead out of the gate but wound up crossing the wire in second, back off the pace by one and a quarter lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred seven. She last won in October of last  year during The TOCA Sprint (G3) here in Kentucky. In this race she settled back early on in second and was made to stay off the lead until they came into the stretch, at which point she took the lead and won by a length and a half.  She will likely be forwardly placed on Saturday, likely either or our early pacesetter or sitting just behind the pace in second.

5. Dr. Sitarides – (Smart Strike x Storm Cat x El Prado) - wrecks2 – S. S. Ledwith – 10/1

Making the first graded stakes start of her career, the four-year-old brown filly is fairly lightly raced with just fifteen career starts. She is out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Dr. Pimple Popper. The most recent start for the brown filly came here in Kentucky over seven furlongs in the Dependant Shocker Dirt Mare Sprint, a listed stakes race. Settling back off the pace a little in third, the filly started to move up midway through the race and crossed the wire first by two and a quarter lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred ten, a lifetime best for the filly. Prior to this race the filly also won two consecutive allowance races overseas in the United Arab Emirates. The filly will likely want to be forwardly placed is well, preferably in the first three, or even possibly as the pacesetter, out of the gate this weekend.

6. Party Never Ends – (Congrats x Wild Again x Danzig) – warfront – O. Osbourne – 11/1

With just thirteen starts in her career to date, the four-year-old filly is already a Grade III winner and is out of the allowance winning broodmare Frank’s Burn. The a few of the other fillies in the race this weekend, she made her most recent start in The Long Island Sprint (G2) over six furlongs. Out of the gate she was well off the pace early on, settling far back in eleventh. She started moving up fairly early in the race and ultimately crossed the wire in fourth, coming up three and a half lengths short and setting a speed figure of one hundred two. The most recent win for the filly was overseas in Thailand during the Natural Spring Stakes (G3) over seven furlongs. She was just as far back off the pace early on in this race, but made it up to the front of the pack to cross the wire first and win by  a narrow margin of a neck. This filly will likely be trailing the field early on out of the gates on Saturday, but will likely start to make up that position fairly early in the race, which may be a good set up for her as the other fillies dashing for the front start to tire later on.

7. Summer Dream – (Summer Bird x Dream Run x Primo Dominie (GB)) - alleged - B. Gulch – 13/1

One of only two horses in the field this weekend to not have won at least a listed stakes start, this four-year-old filly has come close and is placed in listed stakes competition. She is out of the allowance winning broodmare Enjoy The Moment. The bay filly has won six starts in a total of sixteen career starts and brought home earnings of $239,930 for her connections. The most recent start for the filly came in New York during an allowance race over seven furlongs. Settling just off the pace in third out of the gate in the race, the filly stayed in that position until asked to challenge in the stretch, where she went on to cross the wire first by one and a half lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred seven, a lifetime best for the filly. The last listed stakes race for the filly was December of last year during the Race Series for grracers, where the filly finished second, narrowly missing the win by a margin of a neck. With the rest of the horses in the race that are going to want to be towards the front of the pace on Saturday, the filly will probably settle back more towards the middle of the field, or possibly farther back than where she would usually run.

 

8. Crossover Hit – (Smart Strike x Galileo x Seeking The Gold) - tenpin7 – D. Givins – 5/1

The early favorite for The Humane Distaff (G1) this year, the six-year-old mare is also the oldest to be going into the gate this Saturday. The chestnut mare has made twenty-two lifetime starts, winning eleven times in her racing career and already capturing a Grade I win. The most recent start for the mare was a couple of months ago in Florida during The Davey Jones  Handicap (G2) over seven furlongs. The mare went straight to the lead in the race and never faded as she took the sprint in wire to wire fashion, winning by half a length with a speed figure of one hundred ten. Prior to this the mare also consecutively won The Everclear Handicap (G1) in California over seven furlongs and a listed stakes race at the same distance in Oregon. Like much of the rest of the field this weekend, the mare would like to be forwardly placed and could factor in as a possible pacesetter.

9. Sabihonda – (Smart Strike x Ghostzapper x Pulpit) – bigtate04 – J. Dawg – 118/1

The last of five fillies and mares sired by Smart Strike to enter into The Humane Distaff (G1) this weekend, this is also the only mare in the field to have not at least placed in a stakes race prior to running this weekend. The five-year-old brown mare is the most experienced in the field with a total of thirty prior starts. Out of the allowance winning broodmare Zahaadid, the brown mare has won just twice in her racing career. The most recent start for the Kentucky-bred came in Florida during an allowance race over seven furlongs. Off the pace early on and breaking out of  the gate in tenth, the mare held back for much of the race and dropped position at the wire when she crossed eighteen and three-quarter lengths off the pace from the winner, setting a speed figure of seventy. The mare saw her most recent win in August of last year in a mile long allowance race in Virginia. Breaking close to the lead just off the pace in second, the mare was asked to challenge in the stretch and went on to win the race by one and three-quarter lengths. On Saturday, the mare will probably be expected to trail the rest of the field early.

10. Mock Draft – (More Than Ready x Unbridled’s Song x Rahy) - psyduck – M. Wallace – 6/1

A standout roan filly in the race this weekend, the four-year-old is out of the allowance winning broodmare Magic Song. Lightly raced at fifteen career starts, the filly is already a Grade II winner and will be making her first Grade I start this weekend in The Humane Distaff (G1). The most recent start for the roan filly was in Florida during The Davey Jones Handicap (G2). Breaking mid-pack out of the gate and settling into fifth position early, the filly began to pick off other runners fairly early in the race, but only managed to cross the wire in third, two and a quarter lengths off the pace. She set a speed figure of one hundred six for the race. Her most recent win was just the start prior during an allowance race over seven furlongs. Running in much the same style as she did in The Davey Jones Handicap (G2), the filly did make it to the front and went on to win by three-quarters of a length. Her most recent win came in August last year overseas in Spain during the Snownut Handicap (G2) over a mile. Setting just off the pace in third early on, she made a move down the stretch that led her to winning the race by a quarter of a length. This weekend the filly will likely be placed towards the middle or latter half of the pack early on.

11. Kerwhizz (AUS) - (Encosta De Lago (AUS) x Forty Niner x Deputy Minister) – kevoman –  B.Scott – 12/1

Out of the listed stakes placed broodmare Friend Daisy, this Australian-bred five-year-old mare is a Grade  I winner of over $700,000 in career earnings. The chestnut mare has made twenty-four lifetime starts in her career, making her one of the more seasoned runners in the field this weekend. The most recent start for the mare came in a mile long allowance race in Florida. She came out of the gate and settled just off the pace of the front runner in second but started to fade back throughout the race. She ultimately crossed the wire in fifth, eight and  half lengths off the pace of the winner. The mare set a speed figure of eighty-one for the race. Her last victory was in September of last year during The Nutcracker (G1) at seven furlongs in New York. Sitting back towards the middle of the pack at the start, she went on to win by two lengths. Since she’s shown the ability to rate she will likely sit more off the pace and settle back into the middle of the field out of the gate early on.

12. Distorted Sunlight – (Distorted Humor x Giant’s Causeway x Seattle Slew) – aalex311 –  Wa Williams – 6/1

Nearing the end of the field for the race, this four-year-old filly has made eighteen career starts, winning nine times so far in her racing career. The most recent start for the Kentucky-bred filly was in Arkansas during the Orange Blossom (G1) over a mile and one sixteenth last month. The filly took out of the gates and went straight to the lead in the race, taking the Grade I race in wire to wire fashion when she won by one and three-quarter lengths with a speed figure of one hundred eleven. Prior to this she also won the BBRS Presents The Slave To Tradition Mile (G2) by a length and three-quarters. The filly is going to be looking to either be the pacesetter on Saturday, or possibly sit off just behind it in second early on.

13. Viper Venom – (Congrats x Gone West x Northern Dancer) - odin – L. Radzinski – 8/1

The final filly to go into the gate on Saturday in the far outside post, the four-year-old brown filly is out of the allowance winning broodmare Lexington North.  With seven wins in eighteen career starts, she is ranked #3 in her division. The filly made her most recent start during a seven furlong allowance race which she won after sitting off the pace early on in fourth. The last graded start for the filly was last year during the Breeders’ Bowl F&M Sprint (G1), in which she finished second. The filly will probably be either towards the middle of the pack or farther off the pace towards the rear of the field at the start on Saturday.

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Apr 112014
 

The highlight race this weekend in Kentucky is the Corkscrew Stakes (G1). The mile and one eighth race, held over the main dirt track, is one of the Derby lock prep races, securing its winner and automatic starting position in this years’ Bluegrass Derby (G1) on the first Saturday in May. A full field of fourteen horses will be going into the race this weekend, looking to secure a spot in the Derby or to prep for being there regardless of a win or not. The purse for the race this weekend, which is open to only three-year-olds is $750,000. The weather on Saturday looks good for the race’s 3:00 pm EST post time and the track should be listed as fast. Let’s take a look at the contenders for this year’s race.

1. Uncle Sirius – (Uncle Mo x Distorted Humor x Sadler’s Wells) - lenny17 – 8/1 – K. Banner

The first colt into the starting gate on Saturday, this local Kentucky-bred colt is graded placed but has yet to win a graded race. With nine lifetime starts, including three wins, the colt has finished off the board just twice in his career. The most recent start for the colt came across the country in California during the Filipe Alou Stakes (G2) at a mile and one sixteenth. Breaking out of the gate and settling far off the pace in tenth early on, the colt starting moving up on the rest of the field midway through the race to eventually cross the wire in third, back off the pace of the winner by three and three-quarter lengths. The bay colt set a speed figure of one hundred three for the race, down a bit from his career best which came in his prior start. This start in Florida was in a listed stakes race, the Magical Merlin Dirt Challenge, over the same distance. The colt also finished third in this race, off the pace by the same margin. The most recent win for the colt came here in Kentucky during a mile and one sixteenth allowance race. Depending on the pace on Saturday, the colt will likely settle back towards the middle of the pack or will be even farther off the pace towards the rear early on.

2. Nightmare Street (JPN) – (Street Sense x Bernardini x Riverman) - caveman2 – W. Kewmwa – 9/1

The first of two Japanese bred horses to be entered in the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) this weekend, the bay colt is also graded placed but has not won a graded race. The colt has made eight starts so far in his career, winning twice and finishing off the board just twice. The most recent start for the colt came in New Mexico during the mile and one eighth The Splendid Fool (G2). Settling back in seventh early on out of the gate, the colt was asked to move midway thorough the race. He wouldn’t progress that much though as he coasted home to a fifth place finish, off the pace by six and three-quarter lengths. The colt set a speed figure of ninety-eight during the race. The colt almost won the Jersey City Classic (G2) in the start prior as he briefly gained the lead going into the stretch but was overtaken to finish second. The colt saw his last victory in June as a two-year-old during a six furlong allowance race. Placed mid-pack out of the gate, the colt started challenging other horses right out of the box and went on to win by half a length. The colt is a versatile runner, but would likely prefer to be just off the pace of a couple of other horses out of the gate on Saturday.

3. Ray Donovan – (Medaglia d’Oro x Vindication x Halo) - fatattack – A. Jolly – 7/1

The first graded winner to go into the gate on Saturday, the striking light gray three-year-old has won half of his eight career starts and finished off the board twice in his career. The most recent for the Kentucky-bred colt was in New Mexico during The Splendid Fool (G2) at a mile and one eighth. Settling a good bit off the pace in ninth early on, the colt starting moving ahead midway through the race and reached the lead in the stretch. He went on to win the race by an impressive four lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred six. His only other graded start, the Pleasure Stakes (G3) as a two-year-old resulted in a fourth place finish. The colt will likely be held off the pace on Saturday, either towards the middle of the pack or even farther back early on.

4. Tio Luis (IRE) – (Galileo x Rahy x Storm Bird) - zyro – R. Zamora – 9/1

Coming off posting a lifetime best speed figure, this Irish-bred bay colt is out of the graded placed broodmare Costa Brava. Himself graded placed, this colt is one of the more seasoned horses in the field with a total of fourteen career starts to date. The colt has impressively won seven times so far in his career. The most recent start for the colt came overseas in Victoria, Australia during The Winter Wonderland (G3) at a mile and one eighth. Settling back in fifth position early on, the colt relaxed and dropped farther off the pace as the race drew on, but was urged back into the pack in the stretch, ultimately going on to finish second, off the pace by two and a quarter lengths and setting that lifetime best speed figure of  one hundred five. His prior race, the mile and one sixteenth listed Danzig With Sal Dirt Route, was the most recent win for the colt, which he achieved after waiting far off the pace early on out of the gate. This weekend the colt will probably be placed off the pace early on, towards the rear of the field away from the gate.

5. Wheldon’s Memory – (Smart Strike x Hard Spun x A.P. Indy) - atw6 – N. Lawton – 8/1

Out of the Grade I winning broodmare Wheldon, this Kentucky-bred colt is also already a graded winner. With nine lifetime starts, the colt has brought home just over $200,000 in career earnings. The most recent start for the colt came in Florida during The Buccaneer Derby (G3) at a mile and one sixteenth. The colt was forwardly placed in that race, being held just off the pace of a few other front runners. He maintained this position for much of the race and crossed the wire in third, four and three-quarter lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of one hundred two, tying, for the third consecutive time, his lifetime best speed figure. His prior start, also in Florida, was in The Good Cow (G3) over a mile. The colt won this race by a quarter of a length, running the race early on in much the same fashion as his laster start in The Buccaneer Derby (G3). The colt could be a pacesetter on Saturday, and if not he will likely be up close to the pace off of a few other horses early on out of the gate.

6. United Slew – (Union Rags x Seattle Slew x Blushing Groom) - moneyballstable – J. Ledwith – 10/1

Winning two starts out of nine lifetime races, the Kentucky-bred colt is graded placed and is going into the second Derby lock race of his career this weekend. The colt’s most recent start came in Florida over a mile and one eighth during the Florida Derby, another Derby lock prep race. The colt was out of the gate late in the race and never recovered from his off the pace position early on, crossing the wire in eleventh, off the pace by eight lengths. The colt sent a speed figure of one hundred. The graded placement for the colt took place overseas in Turkey during the Long Ranch Island Juvenile (G2) at a mile and one sixteenths. He finished second in this race, off the pace by just one and three-quarter lengths. The most recent win was the colts final start as a two-year-old, coming in December across the country in California during an allowance race. The colt has been fairly versatile, though will likely be placed towards the middle of the pack or farther back early on at the start of the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) on Saturday.

7. Thunder Included  – (Include x Thunder Gulch x Nureyev) - tmica – N. Gardner – 10/1

Another horse coming into his second Derby lock prep race this weekend, the three-year-old bay colt has made nine lifetime starts, winning three times in his career. The most recent start for the Kentucky-bred colt came across the country in California during the California Derby, a Derby lock prep race, over a mile and one eighth. Breaking towards the rear of the field out of the gate that weekend, the colt didn’t make a move until pretty late in the stretch and while he made up some ground it wasn’t enough as he came home to finish eighth in the race, off the pace of the winner by six and a half lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred two. January saw the colts most recent win in an allowance race over a mile and one sixteenth here in Kentucky. In this weekends race the colt will likely be sitting towards the middle of the pack or farther off, trailing most of the field early on.

8. Upgraydd – (Harbor The Gold x Raven’s Pass x Vindication) - hotraces – H. Artack – 14/1

A Grade III winner after a total of ten career starts, the bay colt has won four times in his career and is out of the broodmare Her Vindication. The most recent start for the colt came in Oklahoma during a mile long allowance race. Going straight to the lead out of the gate in that race, he would fade later on in the race to finish two lengths back in second, posting  a speed figure of ninety-seven. The most recent graded start for the colt was in his prior start across the country in California during the Movieland Futurity (G1) as a two-year-old. The colt finished fifth in this race. His most recent win, the start prior to tat, was here in Kentucky over a mile during The Cornstalk (G3). He was held back in fifth early on in this race, gained the lead coming into the stretch and won by one and a half lengths. The colt will likely wait a bit off the pace on Saturday, likely in fourth or fifth behind the pacesetter.

9. Jamison Maker (JPN) - (Empire Maker x Big Brown x Street Cry) - james34 – G. Lambert – 11/1

The second of our Japanese-bred horses to make it to the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) this year, the bay colt has made eight career starts and won twice. The three-year-old is out of the listed stakes placed broodmare Package Car. The most recent start for the colt came here in Kentucky last month during The Land’s End (G2) at a mile and one eighth. The colt settled back early just off the pace in fifth and started to challenge other horses just before coming into the stretch. He’d come up a little short at the wire, crossing it in second off the pace by two and a half lengths. The colt set a speed figure of one hundred eight, a lifetime best, for the race. The most recent win for the colt was his final start as a two-year-old during a mile and one sixteenth allowance race in West Virginia. The colt will likely be placed off the pace of the front runners of the race, but not quite far back enough to be running in the middle of  the pack. Look for him around the fourth or fifth position out of the gate.

10. Calloway – (Mineshaft x El Prado x Strawberry Road) - damascus – N. Labreche – 11/1

Lightly raced with just five career starts, this light gray colt has won four of these races. His only non-win of his career was an off the board finish. He is out of the allowance winning broodmare Alix Baby. The most recent start for the local Kentucky-bred colt was in Florida during the mile and one sixteenth Buccaneer Derby (G3). Waiting far off the pace at the rear of the field at the start of the race, the colt began picking off other horses fairly early on in the race. He went on to cross the wire first, leading by two and a half lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred eight, a lifetime best for the colt. Prior to this the colt also won two allowance races and a maiden race. The colt’s only off the board finish was in his maiden debut, which came over seven furlongs on the turf. The colt has usually run towards the middle of the pack, but his most recent race has shown that  he can come from off the pace as well and still do very well in his races, so we could possibly see him at the tail end of the field out of the gate this weekend as well.

11. RG Three – (Lentenor x Alysheba x Affirmed) - dehstable – E. Walsh – 5/1

The early favorite for the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) his year is this three-year-old chestnut colt, local bred here in Kentucky. The colt is out of the Grade II winning broodmare Mars Stallion. He himself is already a Grade II winner and has the most starts of any horse in the field this weekend with a total of fifteen lifetime starts. Of these starts the colt has impressively won ten times. The most recent start for the colt came in Louisiana during the mile and one sixteenth All Saints Derby (G1), a Derby lock prep race. Breaking out of the gate and settling into fifth early on, the colt maintained his position for much of the race and didn’t have any fire when asked, ultimately crossing the wire in sixth, eight lengths off the pace. He posted a speed figure of one hundred one. The most recent win for the colt came in February, still in Louisiana, this time during the mile and one sixteenth Risen Star Stakes (G3). Settling back again towards the middle of the pack, the colt started moving up towards the latter half of the race and eventually went on to win by half a length, setting a speed figure of one hundred five. Recently the colt has been running more towards the middle of the pack, but earlier in his career he was more forwardly placed than he has been of late, so it may be possible to see him in his normal mid-pack position or out closer to the front.

12. Forty Cats Ted (PHI) – (Cat Brulay x Pleasantly Perfect x Forty Niner) - yearoft – J. Drozd – 22/1

Bred in the Philippines, this bay colt has made nine lifetime starts, winning twice and becoming graded placed, though like much of the field he is still looking for his first graded win. He is out of the allowance winning broodmare Perfect Forty. The most recent start for the colt came across the country in California over a mile and one sixteenth during the Felipe Alou Stakes (G2). Settling early in seventh, the colt only lost ground throughout the race, coming  home struggling near the rear of the field, back off the pace by thirteen and a quarter lengths. The colt set a speed figure of ninety-one for the race. Prior to this start the colt also faced a similar finish in The Scam (G3) over a mile and one eighth, also in California. The colt’s most recent victory came last August as a two-year-old during a seven furlong allowance race in Illinois, which was won by one and three-quarter lengths. The colt will likely be placed somewhere from the middle pack range to the rear of the field early on on Saturday.

13. Neurotoxin – (Street Cry x Unbridled x Halo) - shadowclaw – T. Small – 12/1

Lightly raced with just six lifetime starts, the Kentucky-bred bay colt has won four times in his career and is the only horse in the field this weekend to never finish off the board in any of his starts. A listed stakes winner, the colt will be making his graded stakes debut this weekend. The most recent start for the colt came last month in Virginia over a mile and one eighth during the listed stakes race, the Warning Kingdom Dirt Route. Settling off the pace early just behind the front runner in second, the colt briefly fell back to third, but quickly gained it back and went on to win the race by two and a quarter lengths, setting a speed figure of ninety-four in what was just his second listed start of his career. Prior to this race he also won a mile and one eighth allowance race in California. The colt will likely be forwardly placed this weekend, likely in third or fourth ideally, out of the starting gate.

14. Tango Lights – (Medaglia D’oro x A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector) - ninerdust – V. Reed – 22/1

The final horse in the field this weekend, the three-year-old colt is the only horse in the field this weekend to have already won a Grade I race. The light gray colt has made twelve career starts and won four times over that span of time. He is out of the allowance winning broodmare Crazy Eight. The most recent start for the colt came in Florida during the Florida Derby (G1), a Derby lock prep, over nine furlongs. Setting out towards the front of the pack early and staying just off the early pacesetter, the colt would fade throughout the race and ultimately cross the wire last, in fourteenth, back off the pace by twenty-one and a half lengths. The colt set a lackluster speed figure of eighty-five for the race. He faced a similar experience in last years’ Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile (G1). However, prior to that start as a two-year-old, the colt won the mile long Sparkling Wine Stakes (G1) in New York after settling off the pace early on in eighth and waiting until just before the stretch to move up. Earlier in the year he also won The Upper New York Special (G2). Lately the colt has been rating a little farther back than he was as an early two-year-old, so we may see him try to get the sixth position or so off the pacesetter early on.

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lool Oaks

 Posted by at 9:24 pm  Previews
Apr 042014
 

The highlight race this weekend in Kentucky is the lool Oaks (G1) where the three-year-old fillies will take center stage. The race, which is open to only the three-year-old fillies is run over eight and a half furlongs on the dirt. The running of the race this year looks like it is set to go off on a fast track with good weather in the forecast for the 3:00 pm EST post time. A full field of fourteen fillies has drawn into this years race and they all seem to be fairly evenly matched, lets take a closer look at each of the contenders.

1. Holy Bulb (AUS) - (Street Cry x Storm Cat x Sir Ivor) - manofsteel – A. Arthur – 5/1

The first filly to go into the starting gate on Saturday, the Australian-bred filly is only one of two horses in the field this weekend to have already won a Grade I race. Making eleven career starts so far, the filly has achieved career earnings of $802,150. Winning five times in her career, the bay filly has finished off the board four times in her career. The filly is out of the broodmare Two Nuns And A Dog, she is also ranked number five in her dirt router division. The most recent start for the filly came in Louisiana during the Louisiana Oaks (G2) over eight and a half furlongs. Settling into second out of the gate early on, the filly held this position for most of the race but she started to fade in the stretch and crossed the wire just in the money in fifth, off the pace of the winner by one and three-quarter lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred three. Prior to this start the filly saw a win in Vermont during the Equinics – Sim Sponsors (G1) at a mile. The filly could be on the lead out of the gate or just off the pace, probably back no farther than fourth or so out of the gate.

2. Your In My Space – (Broken Vow x A.P. Indy x Forty Niner) - boble17 – T. Kelly – 12/1

With seven lifetime starts to date, the local Kentucky-bred filly will be making her graded stakes debut this weekend. Out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Bospace, the bay filly is a listed stakes winner herself who is set to seek out her first graded win. The most recent start for the filly came here in Kentucky during the Granny Exalted Dirt Filly Mile, a listed stakes race. Settling just off the pace of a few front runners in fourth, the filly started to make her move midway through the race but was never able to get the lead as she crossed the wire to finish in second, two lengths off the pace. She set a speed figure of ninety-nine. The most recent win for the filly was last December over the mile and one sixteenth listed stakes, the Broad Mecke Dirt  Juvenile Fillies. The filly won this race in wire to wire fashion. The filly, though capable of setting the pace, is more likely to settle back a few horses back away from the front runners, or possibly even farther back towards the middle of the field.

3. Evil Reflections - (Tiznow x Curlin x Montjeu) - fairhaven – J. Piotrowski – 8/1

Another local Kentucky-bred, the light grey filly is lightly raced with eight career starts and has already won a graded race, though she is still looking for her first Grade I win. The filly has won half of her eight starts and has never finished worse than third so far in her career. She is out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Full Of Wrath. The most recent start for the filly came overseas in the United Arab Emirates during The Dubai 1000 Guineas (G3) over a mile last February. Breaking out of the gate and settling back in sixth in the twelve horse field, she was urged forward to challenge towards the middle of the race. She would go on to win the race by two lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred three, in what was her graded stakes debut race. The filly is a versatile runner and has run on the lead as well as come from behind in past races, so her early position on Saturday will likely be dictated on the pace.

4. Blues King (JPN) - (King Kamehameha x Dynaformer x Giant’s Causeway) - super19 – O. A. Haak – 10/1

The Japanese-bred bay filly is out of the graded placed broodmare Blues In The Nite. She herself is a listed stakes winner and will be making her graded stakes debut this weekend. Making eleven lifetime starts to date, the bay filly has won five times in her career and finished off the board only three times. The most recent start for the filly came in Vermont over a mile in the the listed Seattle Dixie Dirt Filly Mile. Early on the filly settled in third out of the gate and would make up some ground late in the stretch to cross the wire in second, setting a speed figure of  one hundred after finishing two and three-quarter lengths off the pace. November was the fillies most recent win, which also came in Vermont. This time the race came over a mile on a sloppy course, moved from the original turf track over to the dirt due to the track conditions. Despite the surface change, the filly won the Giant Lark Turf Juvenile Stakes by one and three-quarter lengths with a speed figure of eighty six. This weekend the filly will likely be placed mid-pack or just off the pace of a few front runners early on.

5. Outback Americium – (Street Cry x Storm Cat x Affirmed) – outback2 – A. Scott – 5/1

The second of three fillies in the race this weekend by Street Cry, the Kentucky-bred is lightly raced with just six lifetime starts. The filly has never finished worse than second in her career and is a listed stakes winner who will be making her graded stakes debut this weekend. The most recent start for the filly came over a mile in the Stars Of Libra Dirt Filly Challenge. Breaking out of the gate and settling just off the pace of the leader in second, the filly took the lead midway through the race and went on to win by two lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred four. The filly also won her prior start in the mile long Fame Or Fortune Dirt Filly Mile, another listed stakes race. The filly will likely want to sit just off the pace of a few front-running horses early on, probably back in third or fourth early on.

6. Im A Sore Loser (AUS) – (Redoute’s Choicce (AUS) x Forty Niner x Storm Cat) – gunners4 -  E. Siefert – 7/1

Next into the gate, this Australian-bred filly has made nine lifetime starts, including of which six have resulted in wins. The most recent start for the filly came in the Seattle Dixie Dirt Filly Mile, a listed stakes race in Vermont. The filly won this race in wire to wire fashion by two and three-quarter lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred four. Prior to this race the filly made her graded stakes debut in the Equinics – Editors (G3) over six furlongs, also in Vermont. The filly was placed much farther off the pace early on in this race, settling in tenth out of the gate. Midway through the race she was urged to make her move and ultimately crossed the wire in the money in fourth, off the pace of the winner by one and three-quarter lengths. Like many of the other fillies in the race this weekend, she is going to want to sit off the pace of a few other fillies out in front.

7. Cultivated – (Malibu Moon x Storm Cat x Unbridled) – mtk2013 – M. Staples – 15/1

Midway through the field, the local Kentucky-bred filly is out of the broodmare Checkered Demon. With nine lifetime starts in her career, the bay filly has won three times and is listed stakes placed, but has not won a listed or graded stakes race. The most recent start for the filly came in Louisiana during the Louisiana Oaks (G2) over a mile and one sixteenth. Towards the rear of the field early on out of the gate in ninth, the filly started to drop farther back off the pace midway through the race and eventually crossed the wire eight and three-quarter lengths off the pace, setting a speed figure of ninety-five. She was second in her first and only listed stakes race in the Goldenbridled Dirt Filly Route over a mile and three sixteenths in Ontario, Canada. Her last win was prior to this race in a mile long allowance race in Delaware. Most of her races have been run with the filly being held off the pace from a few front runners, but recently the filly has been being held farther off the pace early on.

8. Pleasure Trip (SAF) – (Trippi x Unbridled’s Song x Affirmed) - agk04 – A. Kelly – 27/1

The longest shot on the board for the lool Oaks (G1) this weekend, the three-year-old roan filly was foaled in South Africa, out of the allowance winning broodmare Song Affirmed. The filly has made nine career starts, winning four of her races. She is ranked thirteen in her dirt sprinting division and is a Grade II winner, though she has yet to even place on the board in a Grade I race despite two attempts prior to her start here in the lool Oaks (G1). The most recent start for the filly came in Florida during The Girl Up Front (G2) over seven furlongs. Breaking out of the gate and going straight to the back of the field and setting into fourth early on, she slowly started to advance midway through the race but only managed to cross the wire in tenth, five and three-quarter lengths off the pace of the winner and setting a speed figure of ninety-three. Her last win was in Delaware in her prior start during a six and a half furlong allowance race over a good turf track. Closer to the pace in this race early on, she went on to win by one and a half lengths. Her Grade II win came as a two-year-old overseas in the UAE during the Red Fish Blue Fish Stakes (G2), where she ran far off the pace early on. This weekend the filly will probably be the last out of the gate and will be trailing the rest of the field early on, waiting for the other fillies out front to start to tire before making her move to the front.

9. Redoute’s Causeway (AUS) – (Redoute’s Choice x Dubawi (IRE) x Giant’s Causeway) - hewett – J. Seldon – 12/1

The final of three Australian-bred fillies in the race and the second filly in the race sired by Redoute’s Choice, the three-year-old bay filly is out of the broodmare Jumeirah Beach. The filly has made ten lifetime starts, won four times and is graded placed in three graded attempts. She will continue to look for her first graded win this weekend in the lool Oaks (G1). The most recent start for the filly was across the country in California during the Los Vinaigrette Stakes (G1) over a mile on the dirt. Going to the lead early on out of the gate, the filly was overtaken in the stretch and finished second, a length off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-nine. Her last win came as a two-year-old in November during the listed GR Simsters Juvy Fillies Dirt, which she won in wire to wire fashion. She too is going to want to be forwardly placed this weekend, possibly as the pacesetter, and if not just a few positions off the pace from it.

10. Impure Thoughts (ENG) – (Dansili (GB) x Storm Cat x Fappiano) - battlers – K. Braun – 16/1

Foaled in England out of the stakes winning broodmare Storm In A Dancer, the three-year-old bay filly is too an accomplished listed stakes winner, attempting the second graded start of her career this weekend in the lool Oaks (G1). With five wins in nine career starts and only finishing off the board once in her career, the filly has brought home career earnings of $167,295. The most recent start for the filly came in Vermont during the Equinics – Young Guns (G1) at nine furlongs,  in what was the graded stakes debut for the filly. Settling just off the pace in third out of the gate, the filly started to drop back midway through the race and by the time she crossed the wire she was in tenth, ten lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-two. Prior to this race the filly had her most recent win, which came overseas in Hong Kong during the Tarbashs Dirt Juvenile Fillies as a two-year-old in December. The filly won the race in wire to wire fashion. The filly could be another potential pacesetter for Saturday, though if she can’t get the lead she will probably be in the mad scramble of other fillies that will be wanting to sit right off that pace.

11. Stormy Lyric – (Unbridled’s Song x Storm Cat x Danzig) - gcphantom3 – D. Fendlay Jr. – 5/1

Working our way towards the latter half of the field now, the local Kentucky-bred light gray filly is out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Magpies Cat. The filly has made seven career starts, winning five times and has never finished worse than second in her carer. She is a Grade III winner, placed in Grade II and will be making her first Grade I appearance this weekend in the lool Oaks (G1). The most recent start for the filly came in the Louisiana Oaks (G2) over a mile and one sixteenth. The filly settled back towards the rear of the field in tenth early on out of the gate and was urged to move forward midway though the race. She would cross the wire in second, only a head off of the leader at the wire. She set a speed figure of one hundred five. Her prior race was her most recent victory, which came over a mile in Florida during the Davola Dane South (G3). Usually running mid-pack in her races, the filly also showed she could run well as a late closer in her most recent start, which could serve her well in the race this weekend with all the other fillies that are going to want to be up towards the front of the pack.

12. Meeting Your Maker (JPN) - (Empire Maker x Gone West x Deputy Minister) - mtkplaz2 – L. Isreal – 15/1

This Japanese-bred filly is out of the allowance winning broodmare Indiciative and has won half of her eight career starts. A listed stakes winner of $75,860 in career earnings, the filly will be making her second attempt at winning a graded stakes this weekend. The most recent start for the bay filly came in Vermont during the Equinics – Young Guns (G1) over nine furlongs. Breaking out of the gate and settling into fifth, the filly would fade back in the stretch to cross the wire in ninth, seven and three-quarter lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-five in her graded stakes debut. The most recent win for the filly came in her prior start during a nine furlong allowance race in Kansas, where she was second out of the gate but quickly took the lead to win by three and one-quarter lengths. This was the tail end of a three consecutive race winning streak including her victory in the eight and a half furlong listed English Bark Dirt Juvenile Fillies as a two-year-old in December. Usually just off the pace of a few front runners or in the middle of the pack, the filly will probably run the latter on Saturday, or may possibly find herself pushed back farther off the pace than what she is used to.

13. Shine On Brightly – (Street Cry x Danzig x Storm Cat) - whirlwind – C. Winter – 16/1

The second of only two Grade I winners to make it into the lool Oaks (G1), this Kentucky-bred filly is out of the Grade III winning broodmare Midnite Kat. In ten lifetime starts the three-year-old bay filly has won three times and is ranked ninth in her dirt routing division. The most recent start for the filly came in British Columbia, Canada during the Voleur Du Nord Dirt Filly Route, a listed stakes race over a mile of one sixteenth. Settling into ninth out of the gate early on, the filly started gaining ground towards the middle of the race and ultimately crossed the wire in the fifth, nine and a half lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-two. The most recent win for the filly was here in Kentucky during October of last year during her two-year-old season in The Darley (G1) over a mile and one sixteenth. Closer to the pace in this race at sixth out of the gate, the filly started picking off other contenders early on and won the race by three-quarters of a length. The bay filly was also an off the board finisher in last years’ Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly (G1). The filly will probably be one of the last out of the gate in the lool Oaks (G1) this weekend, running as a closer to challenge the tiring fillies up front later on in the race.

14. Pleasant Squall – (Pleasantly Perfect x Summer Squall x Fusaichi Pegasus) - chesapeake  - S. S. Ledwith – 20/1

In the far outside post, the last of our contenders in the race this weekend, the three-year-old bay filly has made ten career starts, winning four of these starts. The Kentucky-bred filly is a Grade II winner and will be making her second Grade I start of her career this weekend. The most recent start for the filly was in Florida during The Miss Bonnie (G2) over a mile and one eighth on the dirt. The filly went right to the lead early on in the race but began to fade midway through the race and would finish last in fourteenth, fifteen and a half lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of eighty-nine. The most recent win for the filly was last November in her two-year-old season during the Golden Red Stakes (G2) at a mile and one sixteenth. She settled just off the pace in third early on, took the lead in the middle of the race and went on to win by a quarter of a length. The fillies only Grade I start to date was across the country in California during the Movieland Starlet (G1) where she finished tenth. She could attempt to be a pacesetter early on in the race, and if not she will be another contender in the mix to try to get one of the positions just off the pace of that front runner.

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