Sep 132019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race, and I think it’s safe to say that when it comes to predicting these 2yo races, I don’t know anything.  That race began when Practical Clown and Young Free Single got out of the gate quickly, and the two of them set the pace early.  And frankly, things didn’t get all that interesting most of the way around.  It wasn’t until the stretch that Buzzed Baseball made his run from midpack to take on the pacesetters.  But Practical Clown ($27.20) dug in gamely and held off the late charge, wiring the field and winning by ½ length with a 90 SP.  Buzzed Baseball closed for 2nd, also earning a 90 SP, while Young Free Single hung on for 3rd (88 SP), just narrowly staying ahead of Curly’s Ghost, who just ran out of room at the wire.

This week, the Future Stars Series stays in Kentucky but heads over to the grass, where 11 colts will do battle in a NW3L Allowance at 8 furlongs.  The field is:

#1 – Faulconbridge (Sepoy x Montjeu x Dynaformer) – Owned by 2019mmassatoga – 13/1

Race Record: 6:2-1-1; $70,875

Capsule: Faulconbridge made his racing debut on January 24 with a 3rd place finish, and it wasn’t until his 3rd career race that he would break his maiden.  In that 3rd race, a 6.5f-T MSW on April 12, Faulconbridge broke towards the back early, but made a nice move late and drew off to win by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a 73 SP as the 5/1 third choice.  He cut back to 5.5f-T for his first allowance try, a NW1x, but caught a 3 horse field (plus 1 CPU horse) and easily cruised to victory at 2/5.  From there, he made a big leap into stakes company, first trying a G2 at 5.5f-T but finishing 7th, and then most recently trying a 6.5f-T stakes where he sat midpack early and picked off tiring horses in finishing 4th.  This will be Faulconbridge’s first attempt at routing.  Faulconbridge is a scratch-bred son of Sepoy, out of a Montjeu mare.  Sepoy ($11,000), the #41 ranked Australian sire in 2019 and the #92 ranked European sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winning turf sprinter and champion 2yo and 3yo in Australia on the track.  In the sim, his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #50 overall, with 93 winners from 128 runners to date.  That crop is his first crop to not yet include a stakes winner, but what he lacked in 2018, he has made up for in 2019.  The 2019 crop, which only includes 40 winners from 90 runners to date, already has 5 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners, among them being Saucy Reign, the #3 ranked 2yo female turf sprinter thus far.  It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that his 2019 foals have been strong early, as his sim foals are largely turf sprinters (65% of earnings on turf, 62% in sprints), and his sim AWD of 6.82 is on par with his real world AWD of 7.29.  The Sepoy x Montjeu cross has been used 22 times in the past 5 years in the sim, with 18 winners and 3 stakes winners (2 graded) among them.  The horses have a heavy turf preference, and the Montjeu bloodlines seem to add some stamina to the usually sprint-heavy Sepoy (in fact, both graded stakes winners are turf routers).  Faulconbridge (DI: 0.92, CD: 0.04) will hope to get that distance as well as he gets some class relief today, but he’ll need to take a step forward to do it.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Secret Spirit (Awesome Again x Ophidian Sky [Danzig x Gone West]) – Owned by tigereyes – 9/1

Race Record: 3:2-1-0; $77,940

Capsule: Secret Spirit made his debut on January 16 on the dirt, where he ran 2nd in a slow race, so rather than move forward from that, he took some time off.  He came back to the track on June 2 in a 6.5f turf MSW and showed that the break was worthwhile.  After breaking midpack early, he made a move at the start of the turn, picking off horses one-by-one until he got to the front, where he went on to win by 1-1/2 lengths with a career-high 76 SP.  Secret Spirit took on NW2L company next time out, at 7.5f-T, and in the field of 5 he was left sitting just off the pace early, but after that pacesetter tired Secret Spirit took it over and then held off a late charge to win by a head, with a 75 SP.  But it’s not the race history of Secret Spirit that makes him the most promising colt in this field; it’s his pedigree.  Secret Spirit is by Awesome Again, and is the 15th foal from 19yo mare Ophidian Sky.  Awesome Again, the 1998 Breeders Cup Classic winner and Canadian Hall of Famer, was the #50 ranked US sire in 2018.  His sim foals, however, has been much better, as the 2018 class currently ranks #9 overall, with 141 winners from 180 runners to date, and the 2019 crop currently ranks #5 overall, with 69 winners from 161 runners to date.  Awesome Again is typically a dirt route sire, with 68% of earnings coming on dirt and 67% in routes, and his 7.86 sim AWD lines up with his real life 7.43f AWD.  The 2018 class includes 17 stakes winners to date, with 5 of those taking home graded honors, including My Awesome King, the Sim Eclipse Award 2yo Turf Colt of the Year.  Ophidian Sky won 4 of her 26 career races, and was a G2-placed turf miler.  But what she did on the track is nothing compared to what she’s done in the breeding shed.  Of her 14 previous foals, she has 2 G1-winning millionaires, a G3 winner, 2 more stakes winners, and 4 more stakes placed horses (so in total, 9 of her previous 14 foals are stakes-caliber horses).  The 3 graded winners are all turf runners of varying distances, as are the vast majority of her foals, though she has thrown a couple of dirt stakes-caliber horses as well.  The Awesome Again x Danzig cross has produced 20 foals over the past 5 years in the sim, with 17 of those earning wins (and 4 stakes winners in the group).  The foals are almost exclusively dirt runners with a preference for sprinting, and thus far Secret Spirit is really the only exception to that.  Based on that, it’s no surprise that Secret Spirit (DI: 2.67, CD: 0.61) debuted on dirt, but we’ll see whether his female bloodlines take over and push him to today’s distance.  If they do, he’s a force to be reckoned with in the future.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Street Kirby (Carpe Diem x Any Given Kirby [Any Given Saturday x Street Cry]) – Owned by bottlecollector – 13/1

Race Record: 3:2-0-0; $45,420

Capsule: Street Kirby had the latest debut in the field, on July 22 in a 5.5f turf MSW.  In that race, Street Kirby sat midpack early, 3 lengths back, but made a big move late and got up for the win by ¾ length, earning a 72 SP.  He came back 2 weeks later and cut back to 5 furlongs against a field of 3 (plus 1 CPU horse) and led the entire way, ¼ length clear at the wire.  From there, Street Kirby came back after another 2 week break, this time mixing things up by stretching out to 8 furlongs and jumping to the dirt.  The race was a failed effort, finishing 7th, though he earned a career high SP, which suggests that he might take to the 8f distance once he gets back onto the turf.  Street Kirby is a son of Carpe Diem, and is the 8th foal from 12yo mare Any Given Kirby.  Carpe Diem ($25,000) was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (8.5-9f) on the track, and is currently the #9 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 7 winners out of 28 runners thus far.  In the sim, Carpe Diem’s 2018 crop currently ranks #43 overall, with 92 winners out of 123 runners (the 2019 crop is currently ranked #87, with 28 winners from 77 runners).  6 of those 2018 winners have found stakes success, but none as of yet are graded stakes winners.  Carpe Diem’s sim foals have a strong dirt preference (69% of earnings on dirt), while also showing a slight preference for sprinting (56% of earnings in sprints).  His sim AWD of 7.27 also suggests a slight sprinting preference, but a number of the foals also have the ability to route, and and all 4 of Carpe Diem’s sim graded stakes winners are routers.  Any Given Kirby won 6 of her 34 career races, mostly at the allowance level, and mixed up the types of races that she won, though most of those races were in turf routes.  Her foals, however, have not been all that impressive.  None of her previous 7 foals have won at the non-hot, non-local allowance level, meaning that Street Kirby is already the most successful of Any Given Kirby’s foals.  None of her foals have cracked the 100 SP barrier.  Most of the foals have earned their wins while sprinting, with a mix of turf sprinters and dirt sprinters.  The Carpe Diem x Any Given Saturday cross also has a sprinting preference.  There have been 7 foals with the Carpe Diem x Any Given Saturday cross in the sim, 6 of whom have won a race (4 allowance winners), and although none are stakes winners, 1 of those is a 3-time stakes placed dirt sprinter.  Most of the foals sharing that cross have been dirt runners (69 dirt races vs. 8 turf races).  Street Kirby (DI: 1.80, CD: 0.36) might be able to get today’s distance, but it will largely depend on whether he can use the turf to his advantage, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to do so or if he’ll need to stick with sprinting.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Rally Again (Awesome Again x Rally Cat [Storm Cat x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by shiekabner – 4/1 (f)

Race Record: 3:2-0-1; $72,940

Capsule: Rally Again made his debut on May 27 and popped a massive race.  Breaking in a bunch that was forwardly placed in a 6f-T MSW, he was finally able to settle and find some running room, allowing him to grab the lead in the far turn and then dig in gamely to win by ¼ length, earning a career-high 80 SP at 9/5 odds.  The race was strong enough for Rally Again to enter an ESR residency-restricted stakes race, and he held his own there, sitting midpack early and then moving up late, picking up a stakes placing by finishing 3rd in the 6.5f-T stakes, with a 79 SP.  He received some class relief last time out and went back down to the NW2L level as he stretched out to 7f-T, and there he sat midpack early before making a very late run and just getting up in time to win by a head with an 80 SP.  Rally Again will continue to stretch out here as he tries the mile for the first time.  Rally Again is a son of Awesome Again, and is the 14th foal from 18yo stakes-winning mare Rally Cat.  See Secret Spirit above for information about Awesome Again.  Rally Cat was a solid turf router who won 10 of her 32 career races, including a stakes win at 9.5f.  She has carried that ability into the breeding shed, as 7 of her first 13 foals are stakes winners, including 1 graded stakes winner and 1 graded stakes placed horse.  The graded stakes winner, 4yo Grannyibakeduacake (Pioneerof The Nile), did so in a dirt mile G3 in 2018.  The foals are a mishmash of turf runners, dirt runners, routers and sprinters, indicating that the sire may have a say in how the foals do.  And when it comes to the Awesome Again x Storm Cat cross in the sim, that preference looks like it may be dirt sprinting.  The cross has produced 55 runners over the past 5 years, of which 46 have won and 8 are stakes winners.  The bulk of the foals are dirt sprinters, but when it comes to quality, all 5 of the graded stakes winners have done so in dirt routers (one also won a graded stakes dirt sprint).  Rally Again (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.72) looks like he should be able to get this distance and surface, and he’s a strong contender today, but one has to wonder if he may be even better on the dirt in the future.

Watch Level: High

#5 – U S Navy Spirit (U S Navy Flag x Spirit of the Surf [Invincible Spirit (IRE) x Shirley Heights]) – Owned by secondchance – 9/1

Race Record: 3:2-0-1; $54,900

Capsule: U S Navy Spirit made his debut on April 12 in a 4.5f turf MSW and finished a close 3rd.  But he comes into this race off of 2 consecutive wins.  The first came in a 5f-T MSW in his second race, where he led the field of 10 the entire race and held on late to win by a head.  U S Navy Spirit came back about 2 months later in a field of 4 in a 5f-T NW1x allowance, and there he sat close to the lead before grabbing it late and drawing off to win by 1 length, with a career-high 76 SP.  He’ll take a huge leap in distance today and he leaves Iowa for the first time for this 8 furlong test.  U S Navy Spirit is the 2nd foal from 6yo mare Spirit of the Surf, and is by U S Navy Flag.  U S Navy Flag ($25,000) may have a US-based name, but he did his running in Europe, where he was a multiple G1-winning turf sprinter and European Champion 2yo before retiring and entering stud this year.   In the sim, his freshman 2019 crop currently ranks #22 overall, with 21 winners from 69 runners.  3 of those runners are already stakes winners, a great sign of things to come.  The foals are almost exclusively turf sprinters, but we’ll see if that changes at all as more foals are able to try routing or the dirt.  Spirit of the Surf was a stakes placed turf sprinter who won 5 of her 26 career races.  She specialized in short sprints, with her wins all coming in the 4.5-5.5f range.  Her first foal, however, has shown a lot of stamina, and picked up her only win thus far in a 10f turf MSW.  U S Navy Spirit (DI: 0.83, CD: -0.14) will hope that the same applies to him as he tries routing here today.

Watch Level: 9.78

#6 – Igneous Pinch (Falvelon (AUS) x Formanov [Dynaformer x Romanov (IRE)]) – Owned by nwo4life42 – 17/1

Race Record: 11:2-2-2; $63,940

Capsule: Igneous Pinch is the veteran of this field, having already raced 11 times since he debuted on January 8.  He broke his maiden in his 2nd start, at 4.5f on the turf (his first turf try), where he broke with a few others out front but outdueled them at 10/1, winning by ¼ length.  It would take another 7 starts, bouncing back and forth between turf and dirt, before he finally picked up his 2nd win, again at 4.5f on the turf, this time in a NW1x in a field of 6.  In that race, he had the lead the entire way, winning by ¾ length.  Igneous Pinch has been stretched out in his last 2 races, and comes into today’s race off of a well-beaten 5th at 8f-T, where he tired after dueling the pace early but earned a career high 77 SP.  Igneous Pinch is the 6th foal from 15yo mare Formanov, and is by Falvelon.  Falvelon, the #92 ranked Australian sire in 2019, was an excellent turf sprinter on the track and has produced similar runners in the breeding shed.  In the sim, he has not been used nearly as much as in real life, and his 2018 crop contains only 3 runners to date (1 winner), ranking #3,185 overall.  The 2019 crop thus far has 2 winners from 4 winners, and is Falvelon’s highest ranked crop at the moment, at #732.  Throughout sim history, he has only sired 2 stakes winners (and no graded winners), one from 2013 and one from 2009.  Falvelon’s sim horses are mostly sprinters (79% of earnings in sprints; sim AWD of 6.2), and only 1 of his 43 runners in the past 5 years have won in routes.  Surface wise, however, they are pretty evenly split between turf and dirt.  Formanov was never much of a runner, with 4 wins in 49 career starts, all at the claiming level.  She was a turf runner who did her best racing in turf routes.  Unfortunately, she hasn’t produced much in the breeding shed either; only one of her 5 previous foals is an allowance winner (which was in a dirt sprint, even though the horse spent most of his career in long distance turf races).  But to the extent that they do run, they are largely turf routers.  Igneous Pinch (DI: 1.00, CD: 0.00) will hope that he too can take to longer distances, but his pedigree and recent races both suggest that this race might be too far for him.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – It’s No Sin (Kodiac (GB) x Feel The Draft [More Than Ready x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by ashokfarms8 – 5/1

Race Record: 2:2-0-0; $59,580

Capsule: It’s No Sin comes in as the most lightly raced horse in the field, but that doesn’t mean he lacks talent.  He made his debut on June 11 in a 5f-T MSW facing off against a field of 8, and he dueled for the lead early before grabbing it and pulling away to win by 1 length, earning a 70 SP as the 4/5 favorite.  He was made a 4/5 favorite again in his 2nd race, a 5f-T NW1x in a field of 4, and none of his competition stood much of a chance against him.  It’s No Sin sat just off the pacesetter, but as they hit the stretch It’s No Sin took over, blowing out the competition with a 2-1/4 length win and earning a career-high 78 SP.  It’s No Sin is the 5th foal from 17yo mare Feel The Draft, and is out of the sire Kodiac.  Kodiac ($65,000), the #10 ranked European sire of 2018, is primarily a sprint sire in real life (which is also where he did his best racing).  In the sim, Kodiac is also a heavy turf sprint sire, with 65% of earnings coming in sprints and 69% on the turf and his sim AWD of 7.00 is close to his real world 6.75 AWD.  Kodiac’s 2 most recent crops are his best to date, as the 2018 crop ranks #87 thus far with 66 winners from 91 runners, and the 2019 crop ranks #73 overall with 20 winners from 55 runners.  The 2018 crop includes 8 stakes winners (2 graded), and the 2019 crop includes Street Kodiac, currently the #9 ranked 2yo male turf sprinter, who won The Future-G2 (7f-T) in his most recent start.  Feel The Draft won 5 of her 41 career races, but they were all at the claiming level.  She primarily raced in turf routes, and has passed down that turf ability to her foals.  Two of her first 4 foals have picked up allowance-level wins, and 3 of the 4 are turf sprinters (the fourth is a router who has done well on both turf and dirt).  The biggest question mark for It’s No Sin (DI: 2.56, CD: 0.75) here is the distance, as it’s a huge jump from 5 furlongs to 8, and the pedigree puts today’s distance in question.  But today will be the first real test that he has faced, and it will be good to see how It’s No Sin handles the race.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Genocide II (Muhaarar (GB) x Genocide [A.P. Indy x Fusaichi Pegasus]) – Owned by theranch – 12/1

Race Record: 4:2-0-0; $79,596

Capsule: Genocide II made a dull debut at 6f on the turf on February 16, where he never showed much interest and finished 9th.  However, he came back 2 months later at 6.5f-T and demonstrated that he just needed a race.  There, Genocide II lead from the first jump and saw his lead expand as the race went on.  He eventually crossed the finish line 2 lengths in front, earning a 73 SP.  He repeated that exact performance in a URC residency-restricted allowance next time out, winning by ¼ length, but comes into this race off of a bit of a down race at 7.5f-T, where Genocide dueled for the lead early but ran out of gas, finishing 5th (of 6), 8-1/4 lengths behind the winner.  The upshot is that even in defeat, he earned a career-high 74 SP, and the horse that won that race would go on to a G3 attempt next time out (though that horse was a well-beaten 9th).  Genocide II gets his name from his dam, 14yo mare Genocide, and he is the 9th foal from her (but first from sire Muhaarar).  Genocide (the mare) was bred to run all day, but ended up as a dirt sprinter, with 3 wins in 28 career starts.  It was a bit of a disappointing career, as she only broke the 100 SP barrier once, but what may be even more disappointing is that none of her foals have exceeded her exploits on the track.  Only 2 of her previous 8 foals have won at the non-local, non-hot allowance level, though both of those foals are stakes placed in short-field stakes races).  Almost all of those foals are dirt runners, and most have seen their fastest speeds come in routes, though most of the wins are sprinting.  Muhaarar ($30,000), a multiple G1-winning turf sprinter, has his first foals hitting the track in the real world this year, and he is currently the #14 ranked first crop European sire.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #71 overall, with 84 winners from 105 runners to date, and his 2019 crop is #52 with 28 winners from 78 runners.  The 2018 crop includes 9 stakes winners, one of which has found a graded stakes victory, and that horse is a turf miler.  However, most of Muhaarar’s sim foals have a strong preference for turf sprinting, with 79% of earnings on turf and 71% in sprints, and his sim AWD of 6.75 is pretty similar to his current real world AWD of 6.24.  Genocide II (DI: 2.33, CD: 0.55) will try to reverse the trend of his dam’s progeny, and the sire could help, but he’ll need to bounce back from his last race to get the job done today.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Personality Hack (Honor Code x Gone West x Broad Brush) – Owned by whitewalker – 7/1

Race Record: 5:2-1-1; $67,650

Capsule: Personality Hack made his debut on March 20 on the dirt where he set the pace at 6f and finished 3rd, but that was enough of a warmup to boost his stamina for his 2nd start, at 6.5f on the good dirt.  In that race, Personality Hack set the pace and opened up a 2 length lead, and that opening enabled him to coast to a 1 length victory, earning a 72 SP.  After a 2nd place finish at 6.5f, Personality Hack picked up his 2nd career win at 7f on the dirt in a field of 4.  The lone pace, he opened up almost 6 lengths on the field and no other horse had a chance to catch him, as he won by 2.  Most recently, he tried stakes company for the first time in his first routing attempt, at 8f on the dirt, and he changed up his running style in that one but was unsuccessful in doing so, earning a career high 81 SP but fading and finishing 4th, 5-1/2 lengths back.  Personality Hack is a scratch-bred son of Honor Code, out of a Gone West mare.  Honor Code ($40,000), winner of the 2015 Met Mile (8f) and Whitney Handicap (9f) is currently the #28 ranked first crop sire in the US, with 3 winners from 19 runners thus far.  In the sim, he has had some more experience, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #39, with 127 runners and 90 winners to date.  The 2019 crop is even better and currently ranks #6 overall, as 37 of the 99 runners have won and 3 are stakes winners.  The 2018 crop has 4 stakes winners to date, including 2 graded stakes winners in dirt routes.  Honor Code’s sim progeny have a strong preference for dirt, with 81% of earnings on the main track.  His foals thus far seem to slightly prefer routes (54% in routes) and get better with distance as they age, and his sim AWD of 7.66 is likely to grow as more of his foals are able to start routing.  The Honor Code x Gone West cross has been used 14 times in the sim, producing 12 winners, 7 of them at the allowance level (and 1 stakes winner).  That stakes winner came in a dirt route, although the foals appear to be primarily dirt sprinters (at least for now).  They do have a heavy dirt preference.  Personality Hack (DI: 3.22, CD: 0.71) will shift to the sod for the first time in today’s race, and his pedigree suggests he might be able to get today’s distance, but this is a lot of “new” so it’ll be interesting to see how Personality Hack handles today’s race.

Watch Level: Medium

#10 – Terror In The Barn (Sepoy x Sea of Terror [Sea The Stars x Monsun]) – Owned by achmed – 6/1

Race Record: 3:2-1-0; $53,670

Capsule: Terror In The Barn began his career on April 27 in a 5.5f turf MSW.  In that race, he broke towards the back of the 10 horse field, but made a solid move at the top of the stretch and got up to win by ½ length as the 3/1 favorite.  From there, he tried 5.5f-T again, this time at the NW1x level, and followed the same strategy, but came up ½ length short, finishing 2nd (the winner would go on to run 9th in a G2 next time out, before taking an allowance with an 84 SP).  Since he ran out of running room in that race, Terror In The Barn was stretched out to 7.5f-T for his most recent race, a NW2L allowance, where he proved that distance won’t be a problem for him.  In that race, Terror In The Barn broke last of 11 but came flying late and crushed the field, winning by 1-3/4 lengths an earning a career-high (and field-high) 85 SP.  Terror In The Barn is by Sepoy, and is the lone foal from 6yo he-mare Sea of Terror.  See Faulconbridge above for a description of the sire, Sepoy.  Sea of Terror won 8 of his 33 career starts, with 5 of those at the allowance level and 1 WEC residency-restricted stakes win (in a field of 4).  That win came in a 10 furlong Polytrack race, but while Sea of Terror ran well on polytrack, he actually looked the best when on the turf.  He won races anywhere from 6f to 9.5f on the turf, though his strongest races came in the 8-8.5f range.  The Sepoy x Sea The Stars cross has been used 12 times over the past 5 years in the sim, with 10 winners (6 allowance) and 1 graded stakes winner among them.  That graded stakes winner is a turf sprinter, and most of the foals have been most successful sprinting, though a fair number have been dirt runners rather than turf runners.  Terror In The Barn (DI: 1.25, CD: 0.17) has been running like a terror in the barn recently, and today’s distance shouldn’t be a problem, so look for him to come on late and fast.

Watch Level: High

#11 – Egyptian Lynx (Cairo Prince x Bastet’s Tears [Street Cry x Storm Cat]) – Owned by giantputz2 – 5/1

Race Record: 3:2-0-0; $50,400

Capsule: Egyptian Lynx looked like a monster out of the gate.  He debuted at 5.5f on the turf on May 6, where he went off as the 2/1 second choice and dueled for the lead early, sitting a half length back, but he was able to take over the lead at the top of the stretch and held on to win by ¼ length, with a 75 SP.  From there, he stretched out to 6.5f-T in a NW2L and walloped a field of 6, setting the pace the entire way and cruising to a 1-3/4 length victory, earning a career high 83 SP (2nd and 3rd came back to run 2nd and 1st in their own allowance races next time out, both earning 82-83 SPs).  Egyptian Lynx took the leap from there and opted for a 6f-T stakes race in his most recent run.  This time, he couldn’t quite get to the front early and stalked the pace, racing relatively evenly throughout and ultimately finishing 6th.  He stretches out here to try routes for the first time.  Egyptian Lynx is a son of Cairo Prince, and is the 4th foal from 7yo mare Bastet’s Tears.  Cairo Prince ($25,000), a multiple graded stakes winning miler, was the #3 ranked freshman US sire in 2018.  In the sim, Cairo Prince’s 2018 crop currently ranks a career high #57 overall (the 2019 crop is closer to his standard ranking, at #200).  The 2018 crop contains 107 runners, of which 78 have won, and the reason for the high ranking is his 8 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners (his only 2 graded stakes winners to date), including G1-winning Revitalization, who won the Los Vinegrette Stakes-G1 at 8f on dirt and was 2nd in the Chestnut Stakes-G1.  Cairo Prince’s sim foals are largely dirt sprinters (75% of earnings on dirt, 65% in sprints), and his sim AWD of 6.84 almost exactly matches his real world 6.81 AWD. Bastet’s Tears won 3 of her 18 career races, all on the turf, and was multiple stakes placed in her career.  Her best effort came in a 3rd place finish in The Hot Springs-G3 (8.5f-T) as a 3yo, a distance where she did her best running.  Her 3 previous foals are all allowance winners already, with 2 of the 3 being turf runners and 2 of the 3 being sprinters.  The Cairo Prince x Street Cry cross has produced 3 allowance winners out of 4 runners to date in the sim, with most of the starts and wins coming on the turf.  Egyptian Lynx (DI: 11.00, CD: 1.17) has the pedigree of an excellent sprinter, but we’ll see today if he can stretch beyond any distance limitations and get the job done today.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for this NW3L allowance.  And like I said at the top…I’m terrible at predicting these races.  The pace looks like it’ll be hot, but I have no idea who’s gonna win.  So I’m gonna go with (1) Terror In The Barn, (2) Rally Again, and (3) It’s No Sin.  Good luck!

Other Races To Watch This Weekend:

1)      Virginia – Alw NW3L @ 8f-T (Fillies) (Division 1) (Division 2)

2)      Kentucky – Allowance @ 8f (Fillies)

3)      Florida – Alw NW3L @ 7f

4)      Louisiana – Alw NW2L @ 8.5f-T

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6f

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Sep 062019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  As I expected, very few horses in the race wanted to set the pace, and therefore it wasn’t a particularly quick one.  A bunch of horses that are usually stalkers ended up a little closer than they expected, and it was only 2 lengths between 1st and 7thFlowery Flattery set the pace early, but horses were all bunched up in front.  It’s Been Nice ($9.90) hit the far turn and decided he had enough of waiting, turning on the jets and taking the lead.  From there, he never looked back.  He opened up on the field and by the time the wire came, he found himself 1-3/4 lengths ahead, earning an 89 SP in the victory.  Imbil Meetup, who was sitting about 1 length behind It’s Been Nice early, stayed that way the entire race, shadowing the eventual winner and running 2nd with an 87 SP.  Flowery Flattery pulled off a bit of an upset by staying on for 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths off the winner but another 3 lengths clear of 4th place.

This week, the Future Stars Series heads back to Kentucky for a stacked race.  12 colts have come together in the Bluegrass State to try their hooves at an 8 furlong NW2L allowance on the dirt.  The field is:

#1 – Young Free Single (Mineshaft x Deputy Minister x Forty Niner) – Owned by kiwirharfoex – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $45,895

Capsule: Young Free Single was bred very early in the year, but stayed in the barn until June 1, when he made his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW at 6.5f.  In that race, he fought for the lead early and eventually took it, opening up on the field and cruising to a 1-1/2 length victory, earning a 73 SP at 9/1 (the 2nd place horse came back to break his maiden next time out with an 82 SP).  From there, Young Free Single stretched out to 7.5f and tried a NW2L allowance, where he set the pace early, opened up a big lead in the stretch, and then was narrowly cut down by one of the closers, resulting in a 2nd place finish with a career high 79 SP.  He’ll try 2 turns for the first time in today’s race.  Young Free Single is a scratch-bred son of Mineshaft, out of a Deputy Minister mare.  Mineshaft ($20,000) the #35 ranked US sire in 2018, was the 2003 US Horse of the Year when racing.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #63 overall, with 74 winners from 117 runners, including 3 stakes winners to date (but no graded stakes winners).  Two of those stakes winners have been in dirt sprints, while the third took home a residency-restricted stakes at 8.5f on the dirt.  Historically, Mineshaft’s sim horses have been pretty evenly split between turf and dirt (55% of earnings on dirt), though his last few crops have strongly favored dirt (69% of winners on dirt). He has a slight preference for throwing routers (69% in routes, though only 58% of the wins are in routes; sim AWD of 8.06) which lines up with his real life average winning distance of 7.22f (which for a US sire equates to more of an 8-9f runner).  The Mineshaft x Deputy Minister cross specifically has been used 18 times over the past 5 years, producing 13 winners to date.  2 of those have been stakes winners (and 6 of the foals are stakes placed), with 1 multiple graded stakes winner on dirt among them.  The cross strongly prefers dirt, with a pretty even mix between sprinting and routing.  Young Free Single (DI: 3.73, CD: 0.92) is going to hope he leans towards the latter here, though his pedigree suggests a little more speed than stamina.

Watch Level: High

#2 – Yankee Pharaonem (American Pharoah x Seattle Slew x Deputy Minister) – Owned by broohar2 – 9/2 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Yankee Pharaonem made the latest debut in the field, beginning his racing career on August 3.  That race came in an ASR residency-restricted 7.5f dirt MSW where he took on a field of 15.  Stalking the pace early, he made his move in the far turn, inching closer to the lead until he finally got there and stayed there, hitting the wire ¾ lengths in front and earning an 83 SP as the 8/1 3rd choice.  This will be his first time facing winners, though he has experience in a crowded field.  Yankee Pharaonem is a scratch-bred son of American Pharoah, out of a Seattle Slew mare.  American Pharoah is currently the #1 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 12 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) from 35 starts, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 199 runners and 149 winners to date.  Of those, 19 have earned stakes victories (5 graded stakes winners) so far (both the fewest of any of his sim crops thus far).  Those stakes winners are primarily dirt routers.  His 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner as well, this time a dirt sprinter, though it’s only a matter of time before the number and the distances increase.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (78% of earnings on dirt), with an ever growing preference towards routing (61% of earnings in routes, with a sim AWD of 7.83).  The American Pharoah x Seattle Slew cross has been used 21 times in the sim in the past 5 years.  Of those, 19 are winners to date (13 allowance winners). Only 1 of those is a stakes winner, but that horse is also a graded stakes winning dirt router who has excelled in longer distance races.  The cross has a strong preference for dirt, but they are pretty evenly split between sprinters, routers, and long distance runners.  Yankee Pharoanem (DI: 4.00, CD: 1.10) looks like he should be a very good horse, and should have no problem getting today’s distance.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Buzzed Baseball (Maybry’s Boy x Spring Training II [Fusaichi Pegasus x Theatrical]) – Owned by gipper4 – 18/1

Race Record: 5:1-2-0; $56,767

Capsule: Buzzed Baseball debuted in a 4 horse local NW2L allowance on March 4, but he was only able to  run 2nd in back-to-back races, so he wouldn’t break his maiden until his 3rd career start.  In that race, an MSW at 6.5f on the dirt, Buzzed Baseball sat midpack early, just 2 lengths off of the leads, but steadily moved up and finally got the job done, taking the MSW by 1-1/4 lengths at 22/1, earning a 77 SP in the win.  In his 2 most recent races, at the NW2L level, Buzzed Baseball has failed to hit the board, finishing 4th both times, but he has changed his running style up slightly as he stretches out, staying further back early but showing a stronger closing move late, and for that effort he comes into today’s dirt mile off of a career high 80 SP at 7.5f.  Buzzed Baseball is the son of Maybry’s Boy, and is the 14th foal from 18yo mare Spring Training II.  Maybry’s Boy, a G3-winning sprinter on the track, was the #8-ranked Arizona-based sire in 2018.  In the sim, Maybry’s Boy produced 16 runners in 2018, 10 of which have won, resulting in a current ranking of #972.  None of those horses have earned a stakes victory, and in fact, only 4 of Maybry’s Boy’s 139 total sim foals have won stakes races.  His sim foals are largely dirt runners (73% of earnings on dirt), but are evenly split between sprinters and routers (52% of earnings in routes, 55% of wins in routes, sim AWD of 7.74).  Spring Training II was a 2-time stakes placed filly on the track, both coming in turf sprints, but only won twice in her 16 race career, once in a turf sprint and once on the dirt.  However, while she may not have been much on the track, she’s been far better in the breeding shed.  Among her 13 previous foals are 3 graded stakes winners, including G1 winners Backcountry (Mineshaft), a long-distance turfer, and Candy Pegasus (Candy Ride), a dirt miler, and G2-winner Rio Secco (Sky Mesa), a dirt sprinter.  In fact, her foals generally have a wide mix of preferred surfaces and distances, suggesting that the sire may play a bigger role in the surface and distance preferences.  Buzzed Baseball (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.75) doesn’t have the flashiest pedigree in the field, but he comes from a strong mare line and has been improving with added distance, so he might be a value play today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Rebuked (Blame x A.P. Indy x Forty Niner) – Owned by desertdog11 – 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Rebuked waited for the races to get a little longer and made his racing debut on July 3 in a 7.5f dirt MSW.  Going off as the 2/1 second choice in a 6 horse field, Rebuked broke sharply and dueled for the lead the entire way, before tiring slightly at the end and finishing 2nd by 1 length, earning a 77 SP.  He came back at the end of July in a local MSW and this time settled a little bit  up front, stalking the pace in the 7.5f race.  That first race did wonders for him, as he assumed the lead in the stretch and then drew off, blowing away the field to win by 2-1/2 lengths and earning a career high 78 SP.  He’ll add an extra half furlong for today’s race.  Rebuked is a scratch-bred son of Blame, out of an A.P. Indy mare.  Blame ($30,000), the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #126 overall, with 53 winners from 85 runners.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes, sim AWD of 7.98), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.35 AWD.  The top horse in his 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 7 in dirt sprints, including two graded stakes wins at 7f.  The Blame x A.P. Indy cross specifically has been used 24 times in the past 5 years, with 21 of those having earned a win.  The numbers get even better on the high end, as 6 of the foals have earned stakes victories and 3 have won graded stakes events.  A significant percentage of those wins come in dirt routes or long distance races, as the bloodlines seem to prove a decent amount of stamina to the foals, and Rebuked’s full brother, Mutabaruka, is a multiple graded stakes winning gelding at 9f on the dirt.  That means that Rebuked (DI: 2.20, CD: 0.54) should have no problem getting today’s distance, and his past races seem to back that up, so look for a strong performance from this 2yo today.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Alumine (Graydar x La Madame [Storm Cat x Forty Niner]) – Owned by hipica  – 13/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-3; $48,590

Capsule: Alumine has had a case of thirditis thus far in his career.  He debuted on March 23 in a 6f dirt MSW and broke midpack, advancing steadily throughout and settling for 3rd.  He broke his maiden in his second start, this time at 6.5f, where he broke midpack again and came running a little faster in the stretch, winning by 1-1/4 length with a 75 SP.  From there, he’s had 2 3rd place finishes at today’s NW2L level.  The first, at 7f, saw him run pretty evenly throughout, and the second, at 6f, saw him break towards the back and weave through the field, finishing 2-1/2 lengths back and earning a 77 SP.  Alumine is the 5th foal from 16yo mare La Madame, and is by sire Graydar.  Graydar ($7,500), a G1 winner at 9f, was ranked the #10 second-crop US sire of 2018.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #108, with 97 runners and 65 winners to date.  His sim foals strongly prefer dirt, with 79% of earnings on dirt, and have shown a preference towards sprinting (56% of earnings in sprints, 66% of wins in sprints; sim AWD of 7.00), though his real life progeny have a stronger sprint preference with a 6.73 AWD.  Graydar’s 2018 crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 of those succeeding in sprints (and the third in a residency-restricted stakes).  La Madame had as good of a pedigree as you can have, but never lived up to it on the track, winning just 2 of her 45 career races (spent entirely at the allowance level, though that’s likely because of her bloodlines as much as anything else).  Her wins came in a turf mile and a dirt sprint, though her fastest races came in turf sprints.  Her first 4 foals are all allowance winners, but 3 of those 4 only have 1 such win.  The foals are all primarily dirt runners, with a mix of sprinters and routers.  The Graydar x Storm Cat cross has been used 10 times in the past 5 years, and all 10 have won, including 4 stakes winners and 1 graded stakes winner.  The stakes wins are mostly in routes, but the bulk of those foals are dirt sprinters.  Alumine (DI: 4.33, CD: 0.94) also looks like he might be more of a sprinting type, though he’ll try to show here that he can sustain his run a little longer and prove his mile bonafides.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Curly’s Ghost (Curlin x Urban Ghost Story [Ghostzapper x Storm Cat]) – Owned by roosters75 – 7/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $49,456

Capsule: Curly’s Ghost made his debut in a 6f dirt MSW back on April 27.  In that race, he stalked the pace early and moved up slightly at the end, but could finish no better than 4th, 1-1/2 lengths back.  For his second race, he stretched out to 7 furlongs and again stalked the pace, sitting 4th early but passing most of his competitors in the stretch; however, he was no match for the winner that day and had to settle for 2nd, with a 77 SP.  Curly’s Ghost’s most recent race, at 7.5f, was a solid step forward, as he dueled on the front end early and assumed the lead in the stretch, cruising to a 1-1/2 length victory and earning a career high 82 SP.  Curly’s Ghost is the 2nd foal from 13yo mare Urban Ghost Story, and is by Curlin.  Urban Ghost Story didn’t do too much in her racing career, winning just 3 of her 24 career races, though she spent that entire career at the allowance level, racing in dirt routes.  Her first foal, Urban Major (Daiwa Major), has looked a bit better ranging anywhere from 6-9f on the dirt and has tried stakes competitions, though he has not been successful at that level yet.  Curlin ($175,000), the 2-time US Horse of the Year, was the #6 ranked US sire of 2018.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #29 overall, with 117 winners from 164 runners.  That crop includes 9 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  The stakes numbers improve as more horses reach routing distances, which is in line with Curlin more generally in the sim. Curlin tends to throw dirt routers (68% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.56f AWD (sim AWD of 8.15). The Curlin x Ghostzapper cross has produced 11 sim foals over the past 5 years, with 10 of those having earned wins.  Most of those runners have been dirt sprinters, though the cross has produced 1 stakes placed horse, a dirt router.  Like the cross suggests, Curly’s Ghost (DI: 3.44, CD: 0.80) looks like he might be more of a sprinter based on pedigree, but his racing history suggests that today’s race may be right up his alley.

Watch Level: Medium

#7 – Practical Clown (Practical Joke x Bring Inthe Clowns [Strike The Gold x Forty Niner]) – Owned by rrl2 – 12/1

Race Record: 4:1-2-0; $42,091

Capsule: Practical Clown made a splash in his debut back on April 12.  In that race, a 5.5f dirt MSW, he battled for the lead early, overtook the pace in the turn, and pulled away to win by 1 length.  Unfortunately, he’s been unsuccessful in 3 attempts at the NW2L level since that debut.  He set the pace in his 2nd race and opened a huge lead early, but just barely got nipped at the wire, missing by ¼ length.  He stretched out to 7.5f for his last 2 races, and 2 back he earned his career high 82 SP when he ran 2nd the entire way around the course.  The last race was a bit of a clunker, as Practical Clown ran 4th the entire way, but he’ll try to rebound here as he stretches out to 8f for the first time.  Practical Clown is the son of Practical Joke and is the 7th foal from 11yo mare Bring Inthe Clowns.  Practical Joke ($30,000), who entered stud in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 7-8 furlongs in his racing career.  In the sim, his first crop of 2018 currently ranks #135 overall, with 60 winners from 87 runners to date.  One of those foals, Practical Dance, is a 3-time stakes winning dirt sprinter, and his 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner, Love Potions, also a dirt sprinter.  Based on that, it should not surprise you to learn that Practical Joke’s sim foals are largely dirt sprinters thus far in their careers (80% of earnings on dirt, 75% in sprints, sim AWD of 6.65), though with him entering stud just last year, we will see over time if those numbers stretch out to longer distances.  Bring inthe Clowns was a horse with a number of near misses in her career.  She won 8 of her 41 career races, and although none of them were stakes wins, she was a 6-time stakes placed and 2-time graded placed dirt sprinter.  Most of her foals have also been predominantly dirt sprinters, though few of them have inherited any of her racing talent (Practical Clown’s 3 most recent siblings are a combined 0 for 34 thus far).  Practical Clown (DI: 2.33, CD: 0.70) looks like today’s distance might be pushing his limits, but it will be a good test for him to see where to go next.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – OG Zen Squall (Zensational x Summer Squall x Ghostzapper) – Owned by baffie1 – 8/1

Race Record: 3:1-2-0; $51,680

Capsule: OG Zen Squall, like a few others in today’s race, made his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW, this one on April 27.  In that 6.5f dirt race, OG Zen Squall broke towards the back of the pack, but made a strong closing move and got up for second at 15/1, just 1 length off the winner (who has gone on to be multiple graded stakes placed) and earning a 79 SP.  OG Zen Squall stretched out to 7f for his next race and ran a carbon copy of his first race, coming up 1-1/4 lengths short and finishing 2nd again.  He finally broke through in his most recent race, where he cut back to 6f but caught a weaker field, and he again sat last early but this time he moved quickly enough to grab the lead and take the win by 1 length, earning a 79 SP.  He’ll stretch out to 8f here and try to bring his closing speed along.  OG Zen Squall is a scratch-bred son of Zensational, out of a Summer Squall mare.  Zensational was a multiple G1-winning sprinter on the racetrack, and he currently stands in Argentina.  In the sim, Zensational’s 2018 crop currently ranks #60 overall, with 69 winners from 94 runners to date.  Among those, 4 are stakes winners and 2 have picked up graded stakes victories.  Much like his on-track career, Zensational’s sim foals have a strong preference for dirt sprinting (81% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints, sim AWD of 6.65).  The Zensational x Summer Squall cross has been used 10 times in the past 5 years, and although 9 of those 10 have found the winner’s circle, only one has earned an allowance win to date.  The cross has produced nothing but dirt runners, and a significant portion of those foals are sprinters.  That’s no surprise, as on paper OG Zen Squall (DI: 4.60, CD: 0.86) looks bred to sprint, but his past races suggest he may be an outlier here and he’s got a solid chance in today’s race.

Watch Level: High

#9 – Boise I Dunno (Boisterous x Sadaharu [Danehill Dancer x Kingmambo]) – Owned by hitops – 12/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-1; $41,194

Capsule: Boise I Dunno struggled in his first couple of starts.  In his debut on March 24, at 6f on the dirt, he broke towards the back and came with a  late charge but came up 1-1/4 lengths short, finishing 4th, and repeated that effort in his second race at 6.5f.  But as he added distance, he kept getting closer.  In his 3rd race, Boise I Dunno tried a 7f dirt MSW and broke last in the field, but put together a bit of a mid-race move and finished 3rd, 2 lengths back and earning a career high 81 SP.  In his most recent race, Boise I Dunno stretched out to a 7.5f MSW and finally got the job done, sitting midpack early and making a big late move, getting up and drawing off to win by 1-3/4 lengths and earning an 80 SP.  The slow progression in stretching him out may help give him needed experience here today.  Boise I Dunno is the 4th foal from 13yo mare Sadaharu, and is by Boisterous.  Boisterous ($5,000), the #28 ranked first crop US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1-winning turf runner in the 9-11 furlong range.  In the sim, Boisterous currently has the #395 ranked crop of 2018, with 29 runners and 20 winners to date.  One of those runners, Kymarc Fun, is a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  In a bit of a surprise, given his racing career, Boisterous’s sim foals have shown a slight preference for dirt (60% of earnings on dirt), while being pretty evenly split between sprinting and routing (52% of earnings and 58% of wins in sprints, sim AWD of 7.42).  Sadaharu was a very solid racehorse, and she won 19 of her 46 career races, including 16 at the allowance level, and picked up 1 stakes placing at 8.5f on the dirt, a distance in which she did her best running.  Her first foal, Jurojim (Shamardal), was also a solid racehorse, having won 12 of her 21 career races, also in the dirt route category, and she managed to pick up the stakes win (among 4 placings) that her dam never did.  Her 2nd foal, Of Raoul (Victoire Pisa), may also be on his way to a stakes victory, though his career was put on hold while the owner took a few years off.  The Boisterous x Danehill Dancer cross isn’t super common, with only 4 runners in the sim, but 2 of those 4 are already stakes winners in routers and long distance races.  Boise I Dunno (DI: 1.46, CD: 0.38) is certainly bred for this distance, and probably even longer, so he’ll look to capitalize on that today.

Watch Level: Medium

#10 – Sacred Moon (Malibu Moon x Sacred Secret [Cape Cross x Mr. Prospector]) – Owned by farm304 – 13/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $39,340

Capsule: Sacred Moon made his debut in a 6f dirt MSW on May 3.  On that day, Sacred Moon sat about 4 lengths off the pace but started gaining in the stretch, getting up to finish 3rd, 1-1/2 lengths back with a 70 SP.  He broke his maiden next time out, this time at 7f, as he ran a similar race but had a little extra time to catch the leaders, and he got up to win by ¼ length with a career high 73 SP.  From there, Sacred Moon made the jump to the NW2L level, but tried the turf for the first time and struggled mightily with that surface.  He returns to his preferred surface today and will try routing for the first time.  Sacred Moon is by Malibu Moon, and is the 6th foal from 11yo mare Sacred Secret.  Malibu Moon ($75,000), the #11 ranked US sire in 2018, has long been one of the top US sires.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #20 overall, with 122 winners from 168 runners to date.  Of those, only 8 are stakes winners and only 1 has a graded stakes win, which is well off of Malibu Moon’s other recent crops, but those numbers may improve as more of his foals run longer distances.  His foals are predominantly dirt routers (67% of earnings on dirt, 66% in sprints, sim AWD of 8.05), which is in line with his 7.24 real world AWD.  Sacret Secret put together a strong racing career, winning 13 of her 40 career races, including a 1-0-1 record in her 2 non-graded stakes attempts.  She was strictly a dirt sprinter, doing her best running in the 6f range.  Her foals, however, have not been quite as good, and only 1 is an allowance winner, with most of the foals preferring dirt sprinting.  The Malibu Moon x Cape Cross lineage has been used 4 times over the past 5 years, and all 4 of those foals are winners but only 1 has an allowance win, with the majority of those foals being turf routers.  Sacred Moon (DI: 2.62, CD: 0.71) might be reaching his distance limitation here and hasn’t quite run to the ability of some of the best in this field, but a nice turf-to-dirt boost could be big for him here.

Watch Level: Low

#11 – Abijah (Dubawi (IRE) x Indra [Medaglia D’Oro x Street Cry]) – Owned by chloedawg7 – 5/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Abijah comes into this race off of a winning debut on August 1.  In that race, a 7f dirt MSW in Kentucky, Abijah took on a field of 11 and was sent off as the 5/2 favorite.  He broke midpack and stayed there for a while, and looked to be letting the pacesetters get away a bit, but he kicked into another gear in the stretch and suddenly the gap between him and the leaders was dwindling, and ultimately Abijah got up just in time to win by ¼ length, earning an 80 SP in the victory.  He gets an extra furlong here in hopes that he’ll be even more clear of his opponents at the end today.  Abijah is the first foal from 5yo mare Indra, and is by sire Dubawi (IRE).  Dubawi ($250,000), a G1-winning turf sprinter, was the #1 ranked EU sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop isn’t quite as strong, but isn’t slouching as it currently ranks #13 overall, with 125 winners from 168 runners. The crop tends to get better as the distances get longer.  Thus far, two of those horses have found graded stakes victories, both in turf miles, and he has 8 other stakes winners in the crop to date.  Dubawi’s sim foals are primarily turf routers, with 72% of earnings on turf and 78% in routes, and a sim AWD of 8.93, which is in line with his real life AWD of 8.79.  Indra ended her career with 4 wins in 21 career starts, all at the allowance (or local) level, and was putting up very solid speed figures in her last few races, all coming in the 8-9f distance, which is where she did her best running.  The Dubawi x Street Cry cross has produced 17 runners over the past 5 years, 16 of which have earned a victory, but only 1 is a stakes winner to date.  That one is a graded stakes winner in the long distance turf division, as that aligns with most of the other 16 foals, who have shown a preference for turf routing.  Abijah (DI: 2.00, CD: 0.50) should therefore have no trouble with the distance, and he looks to be a solid bet today, but it might be interesting to see if he turns into more of a turf runner in the future or if the dirt remains his preferred surface.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Imbil Cadmium (Justify x Outback Cadmium [Awesome Again x Storm Cat]) – Owned by cuprunners – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $35,230

Capsule: Imbil Cadmium, the sponsor of today’s race, made his sparkling debut back on April 14 in a 6.5f dirt MSW.  Facing a field of 8, he broke towards the middle of the pack early and was hustled along, gaining ground around the turn and then catching up to the leader and taking over, winning by ¾ lengths with a 71 SP.  The 2nd and 3rd place horses from that race would each go on to break their maidens next time out.  Imbil Cadmium, meanwhile, hit the barn for a 3 month rest and came back in a 7.5f NW2L allowance in July.  Catching a field of just 4, Imbil Cadmium may have been up against it, and after a bad break that almost immediately put him 6 lengths back, he didn’t stand much of a chance.  He made a strong closing move late, but could only get up for 3rd, 2-1/2 lengths off of the winner (who came back to run 5th in a G3 next time out).  Imbil Cadmium earned an 80 SP in the losing effort.  Imbil Cadmium is the son of freshman sire Justify, and is the 5th foal out of 8yo mare Outback Cadmium.  Justify ($150,000), the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, entered stud this year, so we have no real world data to look at yet.  His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #1 overall, with 79 winners from 187 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with two stakes winners (one in a 6.5f dirt stakes, one in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win) who have both come close in graded stakes efforts recently.  It’s way too early to get a sense of his foals’ best distances or surfaces.  Outback Cadmium won 8 of her 24 career starts, with her top prize being the First State Distaff – G2 at 10f on the dirt, the distance/surface combo where she most excelled.  Outback Cadmium passed down that talent to her first foal, Eucla Cadmium (Smart Strike), a multiple graded stakes winning gelding who took home a 7f G2 and an 8f G3 in 2018.  None of the other foals have been quite as successful to date, and the only consistency in the others is that they seem to have a decent amount of stamina.  The Justify x Awesome Again cross has produced 6 runners so far this year, 4 of which have won, but only 1 of whom has won more than 1 race.  Imbil Cadmium (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.63) seems well bred for today’s race, though he might actually prefer even longer distances going forward.

Watch Level: High

That’s the field for this week’s race.  I seem to be really terrible at picking these races, but this is a race with a bunch of closers and only one pace horse: Young Free Single.  That gives the inside colt a good chance here.  My concern with him is the distance, and so I’m gonna instead go with…one of the closers?  Sure, why not.  I’ll take (1) Abijah, (2) Yankee Pharaonem, and (3) Boise I Dunno.  Because Boise… I dunno.  Good luck everyone!

Other Races to Watch This Weekend:

1)      New Mexico – Alw NW3L @ 8f

2)      Texas – Alw NW2L @ 8.5f (Fillies)

3)      Iowa – Alw NW2L @ 8f

4)      Michigan – Alw NW3L @ 6f (Fillies)

5)      Ireland – Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Fillies)

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Aug 232019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  This recap will be quicker than the pace in last week’s race, which was set initially by Rain Rover, who crawled to the lead with several others sitting 1 length or less off of that pace.  That spelled doom for anyone trying to come from well off the pace.  Luckily, Aces Over Fours wasn’t that far back.  The filly showed that she will be force to be reckoned with through the rest of the 2yo season, as after sitting 5th early, she moved forward and blew the doors off of her previous efforts.  Aces Over Fours ($24.60) cruised to a 1-1/2 length victory, her 3rd win in a row, but more impressively put up a blistering 89 SP, a 22 point jump over her previous career high, as she tries to join her full brother Kennedy Camelot at the top of her class.  Putting up a solid effort in defeat was Sadlerdini, who sat midpack early and came running late, but was no match for the winner, earning an 87 SP.  Rain Rovers, the pacesetter, was able to hold on and take a three-way photo for 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths back (just narrowly edging out Unremembered Rooms and Holy Crap).

This week, the Future Stars Series heads back to the type of race most commonly found at the top of the future stars lists: a longer distance race for 2yo fillies!  It remains baffling to me why the filly races are always at the top of the list, but this week we head to Kentucky, where 11 fillies will find their way into the gate of an 8 furlong NW2L dirt allowance.  The field is:

#1 – Failing Grayde (Baltimore Gray x Rim Rock [Phoentics x Java Gold]) – Owned by roys – 28/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-2; $45,580

Capsule: Failing Grayde isn’t the most well-bred horse out there, but what she lacks in pedigree, she makes up for with a great trainer.  Failing Grayde debuted back on March 2 in a 6f turf owner-restricted allowance, and set the early pace, opening up a sizeable lead on the field and then hanging on to win by a head.  She tried a 5.5f turf stakes next, giving a commendable effort for a 5th place finish (of 11) at 42/1.  A switch to dirt seemed to do the trick, and she’s run in back-to-back dirt stakes at 5.5f and 6.5f and has finished an upset 3rd after stalking the pace each time, first at 18/1 and then at 30/1, with her most recent effort earning her a career high 78 SP.  Failing Grayde is the daughter of Baltimore Gray, and is the first (and possibly only) foal from 19yo mare Rim Rock.  Baltimore Gray won 9 of his 36 career races, never higher than an allowance, but it’s very tough to find any information about his stud career.  That’s not too much of a surprise, given that in his 17 year sim stud career, he has only sired 24 horses.  Of those, 12 have won races.  Failing Grayde is already the best sim foal that Baltimore Gray has ever had, and her multiple stakes places have given Baltimore Gray’s 2019 crop of 2 runners his highest ranking to date, at #1,343.  There aren’t really enough runners to get a good sense of running preferences, but of the 5 winners that he has had over the past 5 years, 4 of those have won turf races, versus only 1 on dirt, and he has a sim AWD of 6.05.  Rim Rock barely had a career on the track, with only 2 career starts and no better than a 6th place finish.  Failing Grayde (DI: 3.00, CD: 1.00) is once again the highest price today, but don’t let the oddsmakers or her pedigree fool you – this filly has talent, and the only question now is whether she can handle today’s 8f distance.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Veto It T (Vittorio D’Oro x Night Spirit [Ghostzapper x Storm Cat]) – Owned by performanc – 17/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-1; $49,470

Capsule: Veto It T made her debut at 5 furlongs on the dirt back on January 18 and bolted for the lead, but couldn’t quite hang on and settled for 2nd.  She came back the next month at 6f and again rushed for the lead, tiring late and finishing 3rd.  After that, Veto It T was given 5 months off, and most recently stretched out to 6.5f where she finally got the job done, again setting the pace but this time narrowly hanging on, to win by a neck with a career-high 74 SP.  Veto It T is by Vittorio D’Oro, and is the 9th foal out of 14yo mare Night Spirit, including the 2nd of her foals by that sire.  Night Spirit was a bust in her career, a pricey scratch-bred who won just 1 of 26 career races.  A few of her foals have been solid allowance runners, mostly in dirt races with a mix of sprinting and routing (technically 1 is stakes-placed, but it was a 3rd of 4 in a 5f dirt stakes where she was beating by almost 17 lengths).  But her fastest foal to date, and the most relevant to Vito It T, is 4yo Marlboro Ghost T, a full sister to Veto It T.  That filly has earned over $200K to date in 20 career races, with her fastest races coming at today’s 8f dirt distance.  Vittorio D’Oro’s (42MM Yen) first real world crop reached the track in 2018 and he was the #8 ranked first-crop sire in Japan in 2018.  In the sim, his 2018 crop hasn’t quite faired as well as his others, and they currently rank 1,288 overall, with only 12 winners from 22 runners to date.  Although none of those horses have won beyond the allowance level, two of his 4yo foals have earned stakes victories (one as a dirt sprinter, one as a turf sprinter).  Overall, Vittorio D’Oro’s sim horses have a strong bias toward sprinting (73% of earnings in sprints; sim AWD of 6.29), with a pretty even split between turf and dirt racing (56% of earnings on dirt, but winning percentage is 51-46 in favor of turf).  Today’s 8f distance will be a sizeable jump, but Veto It T showed marked improvement in her last and her pedigree (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.71) puts this race just at the outer edge of what she may be able to handle.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – Sholver Sky (Distorted Humor x Sholver Sunshine [Awesome Again x Wild Again]) – Owned by sein2912 – 10/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $60,000

Capsule: Sholver Sky enters this race as the most accomplished filly in the field, as she has a stakes win to her name.  That came in her debut, the 6f Running with Redhill Juvenile Filly Stakes, a 5-horse owner restricted dirt stakes on May 4.  In that race, Sholver Sky went off as the 3/1 3rd choice, but set an easy pace and then held on late to win by ¼ length.  From there, she tried open stakes company, taking on a field of 7 in a 7f dirt stakes on June 23, but after dueling for the lead early, she tired badly and faded to 6th, earning a 70 SP.  She makes a class drop here to try and recover from her last.  Sholver Sky is a daughter of Distorted Humor, and is the 7th foal out of 14yo mare Sholver Sunshine.  Distorted Humor ($50,000), a multiple graded stakes winner at 7-7.5f, was the #26-ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, his crops have always been towards the top, though his 2018 crop is actually somewhat lowly rated as it is only #18 overall, with 127 winners from 175 runners to date.  That crop includes 13 stakes winners and 4 graded stakes winners to date, and it’s interesting to note that his 2yo crop in 2019 already has 5 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers, with 69% of earnings on dirt and 61% in routes.  That break down is in line with Distorted Humor’s real world AWD of 7.20 and sim AWD of 7.69.  Sholver Sunshine was a talented runner, winning 14 of her 54 career races, including 6 stakes victories and a G2-placing at 7f on the dirt.  Most of her damage was done in the 6-7f dirt range, and she’s mostly passed that down to her foals.  The best of those is 7yo When We Were Young (El Padrino), a G1 winner at 7f as a 2yo and an EOY category leader (I assume it’s 2yo Dirt Filly Sprinter in 2014, though I can’t confirm).  The Distorted Humor x Awesome Again cross has been used 88 times over the past 5 years, resulting in 8 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners, with a cross that heavily favors dirt but is somewhat split between sprinting and routing.  Sholver Sky (DI: 2.73, CD: 0.68) looks to be one of many on the lead today and might have the pedigree to get 8 furlongs (though it’s a stretch), but she’ll need to show that she can carry her early speed better than she did in her last race in order to win today.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Lady Zapper (Ghostzapper x Quality Lady [Quality Road x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by stockswami3 – 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Lady Zapper made her debut on April 8 in a 6.5f dirt MSW, where she went off as the 4/5 favorite in a field of 6 and sat a length back early, making up ground late but coming up just short and finishing 2nd.  She spent a few months recuperating from the race and came back stronger than ever in early July, as she stretched out to 7.5f.  That added distance was all she needed, as after stalking the pace early, she came charging late and got up just in time to win by ¼ length, earning a career high 77 SP.  Lady Zapper is the 2nd foal from 5yo dam Quality Lady, who was never much on the track.  She won just 1 of her 21 career races, breaking her maiden in a 6.5f local turf MSW, and her first foal hasn’t done much either, with just 1 win in 10 career starts to date (though she has 5 second place finishes in those 10 starts).  Lady Zapper is by Ghostzapper, the 2004 US Horse of the Year and a graded stakes winner from 6f-10f (and on a personal note, my all-time favorite horse).  Ghostzapper ($85,000) was the #14 ranked US sire in 2018, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #13 overall, with 124 winners from 164 runners to date.  11 of those have earned stakes victories, with 3 graded stakes winners among them, including 2019 Arkansas Juvenile-G1 (9f) winner Awesomely Saintly.  Ghostzapper’s sim foals are typically dirt runners (66% of earnings on dirt), with a pretty even balance between routing and sprinting (57% of earnings in routes, but a 51-49 split in wins), and his sim AWD of 7.65 is in line with his real world AWD of 7.22.  Lady Zapper is the first Ghostzapper x Quality Road horse to be bred in the sim in the past 5 years.  Lady Zapper’s pedigree (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.75) suggests that she might be approaching her distance limit today, but her career on the track thus far bodes well for today’s effort.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Lever Capriati (Curlin x Storm Cat x Unbridled) – Owned by 02cencallmoney – 9/2

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Lever Capriati made her debut on May 3, going off as the 5/2 favorite in a 6f dirt MSW against a field of 9.  There, she sat 1-2 lengths off the pacesetter the entire way around the track, finishing 2nd with a 73 SP.  She made a lead forward in her second race though, this time at 7.5f, where she dueled for the pace early and put away her competition in the backstretch, enabling Level Capriati to draw off and win by a solid 2-1/2 lengths.  She earned a career-high 80 SP in the win, and she’ll look to repeat that performance again here.  Lever Capriati is a scratch-bred daughter of Curlin, out of a Storm Cat mare.  Curlin ($175,000), the 2-time US Horse of the Year, was the #6 ranked US sire of 2018.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #29 overall, with 114 winners from 164 runners.  That crop includes 9 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  The stakes numbers are improving as more horses reach routing distances, which is in line with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to throw dirt routers (68% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.56f AWD (sim AWD of 8.16). The Curlin x Storm Cat cross has been used in the sim 108 times over the past 5 years.  It has been very successful, with 88 winners among the group, 21 of which have earned stakes victories and 11 of which have won graded stakes.  Today’s 8f distance looks promising for this cross, as the combo has produced a pretty even mix of sprinters and routers (a sim AWD of 7.63), though the large majority of stakes and graded stakes winners in the group are all dirt routers (including 3 of the 5 Curlin x Storm Cat x Unbridled horses).  Purely on dosage, Lever Capriati (DI: 4.33, CD: 0.92) may be better suited for sprinting than today’s distance, but based on sim pedigree, Lever Capriati has a great chance in today’s race.

Watch Level: High

#6 – Awe Shocks (Take Charge Indy x Miswaki x Storm Cat) – Owned by massatogain6 – 20/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-0; $10,136

Capsule: Awe Shocks made her debut back on March 9, as the 7/2 favorite in a 6f dirt MSW.  Unfortunately, she wasn’t quite up to race, and she finished a dull 8th of 12.  So her trainer brought her back 2.5 weeks later in a hot allowance against 3 CPU horses, and she easily won, breaking her maiden.  Her first try at the allowance NW2L level went decently, as she saw improvement in her performance at 6.5f and finished 2nd.  She comes into this race off of a career-best 73 SP, but that was in a 5th place effort in a 7f NW3L allowance, where she raced towards the back early and stayed there throughout, never showing any closing speed.  Awe Shocks is a scratch-bred daughter of Take Charge Indy, out of a Miswaki mare.  That cross has been used 6 times in the sim, producing 3 non-hot race winners, only one of whom has won more than 1 race, and none of whom have done so at the allowance level.  Take Charge Indy, winner of the 9f Florida Derby who currently stands in South Korea, was the #63-ranked US sire in 2018.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #55 overall, with 75 wins from 104 runners to date.  6 of those winners have scored at the stakes level, with 3 picking up graded stakes wins (1 is a G1 winner at 8.5f and 1 is a G1 winner at 7f).  Overall, his sim foals have a strong dirt preference, with 73% of earnings on dirt, and while the earnings are evenly split between sprinting and routing, the win percentage slightly favors sprinting (56% of wins have come in sprints) and his sim AWD is 7.47.  The pedigree of Awe Shocks (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.77) puts today’s distance in question, and she’ll need to show some added stamina from her prior races if she wants to compete today.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – Take An Axe (Violence x Lizzy [Bernardini x Gone West]) – Owned by allenkane – 8/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,590

Capsule: Take An Axe debuted back on May 27, where she took an axe to her competition, a field of 12 in a 6.5f dirt MSW.  There, she stalked the pace early and pounced in the stretch, grabbing the lead and opening up to win by 1-1/4 lengths, earning a 71 SP.  She came back at the NW2L allowance level, stretching out to 7.5f, and saw her SP jump up to a career-high 76 SP, although she wasn’t able to do much against the top 2 in that race and had to settle for 3rd, 4-1/2 lengths back.  Of note, the 2nd place horse from that race came back to run 3rd in her next allowance race with an 83 SP, and the 4th place horse (who Take An Axe beat) came back to win an allowance next time out with an 84 SP.  Those runs give some promise to Take An Axe’s chances today.  Take An Axe is the daughter of Violence, and is the 3rd foal out of 7yo mare Lizzy.  Lizzy won 8 of her 30 career races, including a stakes win and a G3 2nd, both at today’s 8f distance.  8 furlongs was her specialty, and she spent a large majority of her career at that distance.  Her first foal, 4yo Reef Gold (Medaglia D’Oro), is a stakes winner herself, having won 8 of 17 career races, also primarily in the 8-9f range.  The Violence x Bernardini cross has been used 10 times over the past 5 years in the sim, producing 8 winners, 1 of whom is a stakes winning turf sprinter. Violence ($40,000), the #45 overall (and #1 second-crop) US sire in 2018, was a G1 winner at 8.5f in his racing career.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #154 overall, and consists of 89 runners with 50 winners.  Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, including Got Them All, winner of the Wooden Indian-G1 and 17th in the Bluegrass Derby-G1.  Violence’s sim foals have shown a preference for dirt (69% of earnings on dirt), and although his foals’ earnings have been pretty evenly split between distances (53% in sprints), the quantity of foals has preferred sprinting (61% of wins in sprints) and his sim AWD of 7.09 and real world AWD of 6.68 further support that preference. Take An Axe (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.73) has the lineage to like today’s distance, and if she can learn some lessons from her most recent race, she should have a chance today.

Watch Level: High

#8 – Imbil Baillif (Distorted Humor x Outback Baillif [Awesome Again x A.P. Indy]) – Owned by nomadic- 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $38,590

Capsule: Imbil Baillif, the sponsor of today’s race, easily broke her maiden at first asking back on April 1, debuting in a 5f dirt MSW as the even money favorite and stalking the pace early, before coming on late and drawing off to win by 1-1/2 lengths.  After a couple of months to gain some strength, she came back out on June 23 at 7f in a NW2L dirt allowance and changed things up a bit, this time trailing the field early on.  She put a bit of a move together late, but could only get up for 3rd, 4 lengths behind the winner.  She earned a career high 76 SP in that effort, however, and she’ll look to take another step forward as she stretches out to 8f here.  Imbil Baillif is the daughter of he-mare Outback Baillif, and is by Distorted Humor.  4yo Outback Baillif only raced 14 times in his career before being retired back in March, but it was quite the 14 races, as he ended up as a G2 winner by taking the Pea Shooters Handicap-G2 (6f) as a 3yo.  He was a 2-time stakes winner, and 4-time stakes placed, dirt sprinter, though his fastest career race actually came in a 3rd place finish in a 9f dirt stakes, where he closed strong late.  I’m a little surprised to see him retired, as he looked to just be maturing into his own, but it’ll be interesting to see if he has passed his talent on to Imbil Baillif.  For information about Distorted Humor and the Distorted Humor x Awesome Again cross, see Sholver Sky above.  Imbil Baillif (DI: 2.76, CD: 0.69) looks like she should get today’s distance, but it would be nice to see a bit more of her he-mare’s closing kick if she wants to take today’s race.

Watch Level: High

#9 – My Mistress Chris (American Pharoah x Storm Goddess [Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector]) – Owned by dundey8 – 2/1 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: There were high hopes for My Mistress Chris, a royally bred filly, and she did not disappoint in her debut.  Entered in a local MSW in Kentucky at 7.5f on July 31, My Mistress Chris had to endure a major rainstorm that left the dirt track listed as sloppy.  But sloppy or not, this filly was undeterred, and after breaking 4th as the 2/1 favorite, she pounced in the backstretch, taking over the lead and opening up to lead by over a length, gearing down late and still running off to win by 2-1/4 lengths.  The effort earned her a field-best 84 SP, and now the only question is whether she can repeat that performance on a fast dirt track.  My Mistress Chris is by American Pharoah, and is the 14th foal out of 18yo mare Storm Goddess.  American Pharoah is currently the #1 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 9 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) from 31 starts, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #4 overall, with 199 runners and 146 winners to date.  Of those, 17 have earned stakes victories (5 graded stakes winners) so far (both the fewest of any of his sim crops thus far).  While the 2018 crop may not be his best, it does include American Dane, who was 2nd in the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1, and My American Lady, winner of the Players Club National Oaks-G1 and the Birmingham Stakes-G1 (10f) in her last 2 races.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (78% of earnings on dirt), with an ever growing preference towards routing (61% of earnings in routes, with a sim AWD of 7.81). The American Pharoah x Storm Cat cross has been used 20 times in the sim, with 18 of those horses having earned a victory and 3 stakes winners (1 graded stakes winner) among them.  The cross produces primarily sprinters.  Storm Goddess was a 4-time stakes winning dirt sprinter in her career (just narrowly missing a G3, finishing 2nd), and overall she won 11 of her 41 career races.  All of those wins came in dirt sprints, primarily in the 6f range.  But not only was Storm Goddess a solid runner, she’s also been an excellent broodmare and has passed her abilities down to her foals.  The large majority of those foals have also been dirt sprinters, and 4 of her previous 13 foals are graded stakes winners (with 2 more stakes winners and 3 more stakes placed horses).  Interestingly, while the quantity of Storm Goddess’s foals favor dirt sprinting, the quality is actually a little different; her best foal, 7yo Traped Again (Curlin), was a multiple G1-winning turf sprinter as a 2yo and went on to win the 2014 Sim Eclipse Award for 2yo Turf Male.  My Mistress Chris (DI: 4.60, CD: 1.07) has a pedigree that heavily favors sprinting and leaves an open question as to whether she can get today’s distance, but this is an exceptionally talented filly from a very strong female line, and there’s no reason she can’t run to her overall quality today.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Crimson Surprise (Forty Tales x Locked In Again [Dialed In x El Gran Senor]) – Owned by fabman54 – 17/1

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $48,613

Capsule: Crimson Surpirse, a NY-bred filly, has taken advantage of that status thus far in her career, as this will be her first race outside the local circuit.  She debuted back on April 22 in a 6f local dirt MSW, where she went off at 13/1 and set the pace early, before tiring to finish 4th.  With her sealegs under her, she came back a month later and set the pace again, this time staying on late and just getting edged out at the wire, finishing 2nd.  But the third time’s the charm, as they say, and for her third race she stretched out to 7f, dueled on the lead again, and then decided that she was done messing around, as she pulled away to win by 2-1/4 lengths, earning a career-high 78 SP (beating a horse that would come back to break her own maiden next time out).  Crimson Surprise is by Forty Tales, and is the 2nd foal out of 8yo mare Locked In Again.  Forty Tales ($3,000), a multiple G2-winning dirt sprinter, was the #17 ranked New York sire in 2018.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #826 overall (his worst ranking to date), with 12 winners from 23 runners.  Only 2 of those have even won at the allowance level, but Forty Tales has been a little better as a sire in the past, with 2 G3 winners among his first 2 sim crops (both in dirt 8-9f races).  Forty Tales’ sim foals have strongly preferred dirt sprinting overall, with 77% of earnings on dirt and 73% in sprints, and his sim AWD of 6.57 is slightly shorter than his real world AWD of 6.93.  Locked In Again was a 2-time stakes winner in her 32 race career, picking up 9 total wins, primarily in dirt sprints.  Her ideal distance was 7.5f, where she earned both of her stakes victories.  Her first foal, 3yo Still Locked In (Graydar), is looking to be a solid gelding himself, as he recently picked up a stakes win at 6.5f on the turf to bring his record to 6 for 11 lifetime (including 5 of 6 on the turf).  Crimson Surprise (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.88) made a statement in her last race at 7f, but her pedigree suggests that might be her limit, so we’ll see whether she can break through that cap today or whether she’ll take after her mother and find the 7-7.5f range more appealing.

Watch Level: Medium

#11 – Kanchenjunga (Violence x Seeking The Gold x Secretariat) – Owned by plano8 – 7/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $20,804

Capsule: Kanchenjunga’s debut on May 9 was an excellent start to this filly’s career.  Debuting at 6f on the dirt, she faced a field of 11 and sat midpack early, before moving forward late and drawing off to win by 1-1/2 as the 2/1 favorite, earning a career high 74 SP.  Her most recent race saw her jump to the NW2L level, where she tried a 6.5f dirt allowance, but the effort was a bit of a step backwards from her debut, as she sat midpack but never really got into the race, passing only tiring horses and finishing 5th with a 70 SP.  Kanchenjunga will try to reverse course in today’s race as she stretches out to routes.  Kanchenjunga is a scratch-bred daughter of Violence, out of a Seeking The Gold mare.  For information about Violence, see Take An Axe above.  The Violence x Seeking The Gold cross hasn’t been prolific in the sim, but it has been used 5 times thus far, with 4 winners (but no allowance-level winners) among the group.  Those wins have all come on the dirt, with most in dirt sprints.  That aligns with Kanchenjunga’s DI/CD (DI: 3.33, CD: 0.85), and it suggests that today’s 8f distance might be a little too long for this filly, but you never know until you see her in action on the track.

Watch Level: Medium

That’s the field for today’s NW2L.  It looks like this one should have a pretty hot pace, with Veto It T, Sholver Sky, Crimson Surprise and Lever Capriati all vying for the early lead.  But that will set this race up well for those coming from the back.  I’m not sure exactly who will win, and it’s hard to pick against My Mistress Chris, a horse with a top pedigree who comes from a female line of multiple graded stakes winners and enters with a field-high SP in her only career start.  But she’s 2/1.  And this is likely the last time you’ll see 28/1 odds on Failing Grayde.  Frankly, I’m not sure that she’s the best horse in the race, but she’s got experience and gets a class drop reprieve here, so I can’t pass up those odds.  Therefore, I’m going with (1) Falling Grayde, (2) My Mistress Chris, and (3) Lever Capriati.  Good luck everyone!

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:

1)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 8f-T (Fillies)

2)      New York – Alw NW3L @ 8f (Fillies)

3)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 8f-T (Fillies)

4)      Kentucky – Local Alw NW3L @ 7.5f

5)      Surrey (England) – Alw NW3L @ 7f-T

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Jul 052019
 

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  And that recap is…I FINALLY GOT ONE RIGHT!!!  Creed of Hefin got out of the gate quickly and grabbed the lead, but he was tracked throughout the race closely by Awesomizer.  As they entered the far turn, Creed of Hefin started to falter a bit and Awesomizer took over the lead.  From there, it was clear sailing for Awesomizer ($10.40) who grabbed the lead and held on to win by ½ length, earning an 83 SP.  Tuns O’ Kittens, who sat 4th early, capitalized on the fading Creed of Hefin and came on late, but couldn’t quite catch the winner and settled for 2ndCreed of Hefin may not have been able to keep up with the top 2, but even after fading he was still good enough to hold on for 3rd, 2-1/4 lengths behind the winner.

This week, the Future Stars Series finally looks for its first 2020 Bluegrass Derby contender!  We head to Kentucky, where 9 colts try to pick up their first allowance win in a NW2L Allowance at 7 furlongs on the dirt.  The field is:

#1 – Yankee Storm King (American Pharoah x Storm Cat x Kingmambo) – Owned by stepsutt67 – 3/1 (f)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Yankee Storm King had no patience for his competition in his debut on April 1.  In that 5f MSW, he sprinted for the lead, opened up, and then eased his way to a ¾ length victory, earning a 73 SP.  That was enough for his owner to bump him up to the stakes level, where he tried a 6f dirt stakes and went off as the 7/2 favorite, but was unable to get the lead to set the early pace and then faded to 7th, earning a 70 SP.  Yankee Storm King is a scratch-bred horse who is one of 19 sim horses to share the American Pharoah x Storm Cat bloodlines.  Those 19 horses have resulted in 17 winners to date, 3 of whom are stakes winners and 1 of whom is a G2 winner.  American Pharoah more generally has been on fire both in the sim and the real world.  He is currently the #2 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 3 winners (and 1 Graded Stakes winner) in 11 starts, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 198 runners and 138 winners to date.  Of those, 16 have earned stakes victories (4 graded stakes winners) so far (both the fewest of any of his sim crops thus far).  While the 2018 crop may not be his best, it does include American Dane, who was 2nd in the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1.  His sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (66% of earnings on dirt), with a slight preference towards routing that will likely become a little more preferred as he has more sim foals (his sim AWD is a 7.78). The majority of the horses are dirt sprinters.  Yankee Storm King (DI: 1.67; CD: 0.50) is looking to add to the tally of horses that share his bloodlines, but the first step to doing that is to defeat winners, and he looks like a solid bet to do that here.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Dalakhani Motor (Eavesdropper x Induction Motor [Dalakhani x Henrythenavigator]) – Owned by melmel2019 – 15/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-0; $34,844

Capsule: Through his first 3 races, Dalakhani Motor didn’t look all that special, never breaking a 65 SP or finishing better than 5th in an MSW, all with odds ranging from 16-34/1.  But that all changed in his most recent race on June 9, where he repeated the 6.5f distance for the 3rd time.  In that race, for the first time, he showed a real closing kick, coming from over 8 lengths back to win by 1-1/4 lengths at 39/1.  For the effort he earned a ridiculous 80 SP, seemingly out of nowhere, so the only question for this race is whether that was a fluke or a sign of maturity.  Dalakhani Motor is by Eavesdropper, and is the 6th foal out of 9yo mare Induction Motor.  Eavesdropper ($6,600) was a G3-placed sprinter during his racing career, and he has been standing in Libya for several years.  In the sim, Eavesdropper’s 2018 crop currently ranks #322 overall, with 26 runners and 13 winners to date.  One of those 13 is a stakes winner in an 8.5f turf race.  His sim foals have shown a slight preference for dirt (56% of earnings on dirt), but while the earnings suggest a route preference (60% of earnings in routes), the win percentages suggest a slight sprint favoritism, as does the 7.62 sim AWD, probably resulting from the fact that a significant percentage of stakes success has been in turf routes, even though his sim foals have almost double the number of wins in dirt sprints.  Induction Motor only raced 9 times in her career, and her lone win was in a $60K local maiden claimer where she was the 1/9 favorite, so she didn’t show much of a proclivity for racing.  Her foals haven’t done much either (only 2 of the 6 have an allowance win), but all of the foals have been turf runners, with a mix of routers and sprinters among them.  Dalakhani Motor (DI: 1.15; CD: 0.21) looks like he might want to be one of those routers, and if he can repeat his last performance, he may be one of the top contenders in this race.

Watch Level: Low

#3 – Ice Point (Ice Box x Simple Wish [Point Given x Nureyev]) – Owned by atwistoff – 11/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $20,220

Capsule: Ice Point looked pretty good in his debut on May 17.  In that 5.5f MSW in South Africa, Ice Point sat towards the back early but made a mid-race move, getting close to the leaders, and then easily overtook those in front and drew off to win by 1 length, earning a 70 SP at 15/1.  Ice Point is by Ice Given, and is the 7th foal out of 11yo mare Simple Wish.  Ice Box ($7,500), the #99 ranked Kentucky sire in 2018, won the 2010 Florida Derby and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby that year.  In the sim, Ice Box’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #661 overall, with 21 winners from 40 runners.  None of those horses have been successful at the stakes level, and in fact he has only had 1 stakes winner in the past 5 years.  Ice Box’s sim foals are largely dirt runners (71% of earnings on dirt), but unlike his real world running style, Ice Box’s sim foals have been sprinters thus far (61% in sprints), though his real world AWD of 7.23 indicates a longer distance for his foals than his sim 6.88 AWD.  Simple Wish won 5 of her 19 career races, all on the dirt with wins coming anywhere from 7-10.5f, though 3 of those 5 wins came at the claiming level.  As a broodmare, Simple Wish hasn’t been that impressive, and only her first foal, Cal Given (Cal Nation) even has an allowance win (in a dirt route).  The rest have only won at the maiden and/or claiming levels, with a mix of distances (mostly on the dirt though).  The Ice Box x Point Given cross has been used 1 other time in the sim in the past 5 years, but it’s a promising cross as that horse, Ice Box Ridge, was a G3–winning dirt sprinter.  Ice Point (DI: 2.43; CD: 0.58) looks to make it 2-for-2 today as he should be happy to get some extra distance to run.

Watch Level: High

#4 – Cuique Suum (Carpe Diem x Carson City x Northern Dancer) – Owned by jcasino – 6/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $33,720

Capsule: Cuique Suum began his career in a 6.5f dirt MSW on April 23 and didn’t disappoint.  There, he fell to the back of the 9 horse field early, but came flying late, grabbing the lead and taking the win by 1-1/4 lengths as the 5/1 5th choice, earning a 71 SP.  From there, he headed to residency company and tried the ESR Fillmore East Stakes at 6f, but he regressed a bit, breaking last and never showing a turn of foot, earning a 65 SP.  Cuique Suum is looking to bounce back here.  He is a scratch-bred son of Carpe Diem, who was crossed with a Carson City mare for the breeding.  Carpe Diem ($25,000) was a multiple G1-winning dirt router (8.5-9f) on the track, and is currently the #17 ranked first-crop sire in the US, with 1 winner out of his 7 runners to have reached the track.  In the sim, Carpe Diem’s 2018 crop currently ranks #48 overall, with 84 winners out of 123 runners.  5 of those winners have found stakes success, though none of the 2018 crop have as of yet achieved a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals have a strong dirt preference (69% of earnings on dirt), while also showing a preference for sprinting (57% of earnings in sprints, 59% of wins in sprints).  His sim AWD of 7.18 also suggests a sprinting preference, but we’ll see how his real world crop looks to see if this will warrant an adjustment in the future.  Cuique Suum (DI: 3.62; CD: 0.97) was bred to sprint, so we’ll see if the added distance here will help, but if his past races are any indication he should be a little happier here.

Watch Level: Medium

#5 – Data Kiss (Freud x Saint Ballado x Smart Strike) – Owned by plano10 – 9/2

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Capsule: Data Kiss took the “easy” route in his debut, running in a Hot MSW at 6.5f on May 22.  The field included 7 horses, all from the same stables, as owner planoaxius decided to see which of his 2yos would be the most useful.  That honor seems to have gone to Data Kiss, who went off as the 4/1 3rd choice and sat towards the back early, but made a strong move in the stretch and pulled away to win by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a 73 SP.  Data Kiss is a scratch-bred son of Freud, out of a Saint Ballado mare.  Freud ($7,500) the #39 ranked US sire (and #1 ranked NY sire) in 2018, is a full brother to top sire Giant’s Causeway.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #130 overall, with 62 runners and 44 winners.  2 of those winners have been successful at the residency-restricted Local stakes level.  Overall, his sim foals are largely sprinters (64% of earnings in sprints), with a relatively even split between turf and dirt runners (55% on dirt), and his sim AWD of 6.69 closely tracks his real world AWD of 6.71.  This is the first time in the past 5 years that the Freud x Saint Ballado cross has been used in the sim.  Data Kiss (DI: 1.93; CD: 0.55) will try to prove that he belongs in non-hot competition and that his debut was no fluke.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Going Buckwild (Stonesider x Buckpasser Cadet [Empire Maker x Dubai Millennium]) – Owned by tiomundo4 – 15/1

Race Record: 5:1-0-1; $35,158

Capsule: Going Buckwild, the veteran of the field, was claimed for $50,000 out of his debut and broke his maiden in his first race for his new owner, in a 5f $100K Starter Allowance on February 15 where he took on 2 computer horses and 1 player-owned horse and easily cruised to a 2 length victory.  Since then, however, he has struggled in 3 allowance-level races at double digit odds in each one.  He enters this race off of a 5th place finish, where he earned his 2nd consecutive 70 SP while trying to come from the back of the pack.  Going Buckwild is the 2nd foal from 7yo Buckpasser Cadet, who was sent to the Giant’s Causeway sire Stonesider.  Buckpasser Cadet was a multiple stakes-placed filly on the track, with most of her 6 wins in 27 starts (and both stakes placings) coming in long distance turf races (14-16f-T).  Her first foal, 3yo Capo La Gala (Cape Blanco), retired after going winless in 9 starts.  Stonesider ($2,000), the #8 ranked sire in Texas in 2018, is a son of Giant’s Causeway and was 1 for 1 in his career on the track (a 5.5f MSW). His sim crops parallel his real life crops, as the 2018 sim class only has 3 runners to date, currently ranking #1,438 as 2 of those have won.  He only has 1 stakes winner since he became a sim sire, and that was in a residency-restricted local stakes race.  His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters (67% of earnings on dirt, 66% in sprints), which aligns with his 6.85 real world AWD and 6.61 sim AWD.  It’s unclear if a 7f dirt race is the best type of race for Going Buckwild (DI: 2.11; CD: 0.50), but he’ll try to improve off of his past races and move forward here.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – This Time Gold (Medaglia D’Oro x Northern Again [Awesome Again x Storm Bird]) – Owned by pilgrim10 – 8/1

Race Record: 4:1-1-0; $49,221

Capsule: This Time Gold began his career on the dirt, trying a 4.5f MSW on February 2 and acquitting himself pretty well, narrowly missing breaking his maiden and finishing 2nd by ¼ length.  But after a very dull 2nd start on dirt, he switched to the 6f on the turf and broke through, sitting midpack early and then just getting up to win by ¼ length, earning a 68 SP.  Unfortunately, his first try again winners in a NW2L on the turf was any dull effort, so he switches back to dirt here to see if this time he can earn gold.  This Time Gold is the 9th foal from 16yo mare Northern Again, and is by leading sire Medaglia D’Oro.  Northern Again won 5 of her 14 career starts, breaking her maiden in a dirt sprint but winning most of her races in turf routes.  Most of her sim foals have been routers, but they’ve found success – 2 are stakes winners, and 2 more are stakes-placed, with a pretty even split between those who prefer the turf and those who prefer the dirt.  Medaglia D’Oro ($200,000), the #12 ranked US sire in 2018, is equally adept in the sim, as his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #22 overall.  That sim crop includes 100 winners out of 158 runners, 9 of which have won stakes races (2 graded stakes winners).  Among those is Barbara Bites Back, winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Oaks-G1. His sim foals have a strong preference for routing (70% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 7.69 AWD and 8.28 sim AWD, and they have a slight favoritism towards dirt (61% on dirt).  The Medaglia D’Oro x Awesome Again cross has been used 27 times in the past 5 years, and although 23 of those have won races, only 1 is a stakes winner (a dirt sprinter).  The combination has actually shown a slight preference for routing, and a slightly greater preference for dirt racing.  This Time Gold (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.72) seems well suited for this distance and surface based on pedigree, but he’ll need to take a big step forward off of his past races to really compete here.

Watch Level: Low

#8 – Intoishe (Into Mischief x Oishe [Distorted Humor x Bernardini]) – Owned by given00 – 9/2

Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $47,770

Capsule: Intoishe, the sponsor of the race, was a slow starter in his debut but made a big jump in race #2.  In that race, a 6.5f MSW on April 28, Intoishe sat towards the back early and moved forward late, running out of racing room just before the finish line and missing by a head, but he saw a big SP jump from 63 to 75 for the race.  The winner of that race came back to run 2nd with an 80 SP in an open allowance next time out.  Yankee Storm King, meanwhile, had no problem taking care of business in his 3rd race, sitting at the back early but closing to win by 1-1/4 length, with a 76 SP.  Intoishe is the first foal by 5yo mare Oishe, and is by Into Mischief.  Oishe was an excellent runner on the track, with 10 wins in her 22 race career.  Among those wins were 2 G2 dirt miles, which is where she did her best running.  Into Mischief ($150,000), the #4 ranked US sire in 2018, was a dirt sprinter in his racing career but he’s been known to throw a longer distance runner from time to time in the real world.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #11 overall, with 100 winners from 143 runners to date (and his 2019 crop is currently ranked #1).  Of those, only 5 have won a stakes, but 2 of those are Graded Stakes winners, including Sim Eclipse 2yo Dirt Colt of the Year Into Being Nice.  His sim foals, much like him in real life, are dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 60% in routes), though his sim AWD of 7.00 is a little longer than his real world AWD of 6.72.  Into Mischief has been bred to a Distorted Humor mare 17 times in the past 5 years, resulting in 12 winners, one of whom is a stakes winning dirt sprinter.  In fact, the overwhelming majority of those sim horses are dirt sprinters.  Intoishe (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.67) might be gearing up for a campaign in longer races, but today’s 7f distance should fit him perfectly and he is a top contender here.

Watch Level: Medium

#9 – Buzz Quality (Uncle Mo x Deputy Cat [Deputy Minister x Storm Cat]) – Owned by smokeglack – 4/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $20,220

Capsule: Buzz Quality struggled mightily in his debut in an ASR residency-restricted MSW at 6.5f, where he broke towards the back and stayed there.  But he came back 1 month later, on May 30, and showed that he just needed to understand what it was like to race.  In that 5.5f MSW, he broke midpack early but picked off horses in the stretch, making his way through the pack and ultimately winning by ¾ length, earning a 68 SP.  Buzz Quality is by top sire Uncle Mo, and is the 10th foal out of stellar sim mare Deputy Cat.  Uncle Mo ($125,000), the #13 ranked US sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-8.5f and has been a top real world sire for years.  In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #10 overall, with 127 winners from 185 runners to date.  7 of those have won stakes races, but only 1 thus far has earned a graded stakes victory.  His sim foals strongly prefer the dirt (75% of earnings on dirt), though there is a pretty even split between sprints and routes (7.37 sim AWD), which is a little surprising given Uncle Mo’s real world preference for routers (7.38 AWD; note that US AWDs are typically lower because of the prevalence of sprints).  Deputy Cat is the best producing sim mare that the Future Stars Series has profiled this year.  On the track, she was a 4 time stakes winning (and 9-time stakes placed) dirt sprinter who won 16 of her 56 career races.  In the breeding shed, she’s been even better, especially recently, with 5 of her 10 foals being stakes winners (and a 6th being stakes placed).  Among those are 5yo Buzzing Quality (Quality Road), the 2017 Sim Eclipse Award winning Dirt Sprinter, G1-winning 4yo dirt sprinter Fade Back to Black (Tapit), and G2-winning 3yo What Ever Ya Like (Union Rags), who is currently the #2-ranked 3yo dirt route colt who was 15th in the 2019 Bluegrass Derby.  Uncle Mo has been bred to a Deputy Minister mare 15 times in the past 5 years, resulting in 12 winners to date, one of whom is a G2-winning dirt sprinter, which is in line with the fact that most of the Uncle Mo x Deputy Minister sim horses are primarily dirt sprinters.  Buzz Quality’s (DI: 1.00; CD: 0.00) pedigree alone would make him the favorite in this race and a potential star in the future (as a behind-the-scenes aside, his pedigree alone is what put this race into the series; just under half of the total points assigned to this race are from his pedigree alone), but his on track performance may need to take a step up to really be competitive.

Watch Level: High

In my attempt to go on a 2-race winning streak, I’m struck by the fact that there seems to be almost no pace in this race.  And therefore, I’m gonna take the only horse who looks like he’s interested in being anywhere near the front half of the field.  So, I’m going with Yankee Storm King to win.  After that, I’ll take the sponsor Intoishe, followed by the deep closer who came out of nowhere in his last race in Dalakhani Motor.  Good luck to everyone!

Other races to watch this weekend:

1)      Kentucky – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f-T

2)      Louisiana – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f

3)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6f

4)      Texas – Alw NW3L @ 7.5f-T

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 7.5f

Views (200)

May 312019
 

As mentioned in last week’s Midyear Recap, this week the Future Stars Series is making a change…we’re heading to the 2yo ranks.  I’m hoping to update the race points system to better account for the fact that 2yos have very few career starts at this point, but this week we’re still using the old model.  Which means that this week, we’re headed to Kentucky, where a full field of 14 2yo fillies stretch out to 6.5f for a NW2L Allowance on the dirt.  Many of those fillies have only run once in their careers.  The field is:

#1 – Cats N Birds (Bird Song x Alley Cat [High Yield x Gone West]) – Owned by hoppybob – 25/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $35,406

Race History: One of the two veterans of the field, Cats N Birds also comes into this race as the longshot.  She had a poor debut on the turf back on March 24, but shifted over to the dirt and saw a solid improvement when she ran 4th in her second race.  She comes into this race off of her maiden score in a local 5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on May 11, where she led the field of 9 from the break and held on late, winning by ½ length and earning a career high 70 SP.  She takes on non-local company for the first time here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Bird Song, a multiple graded stakes winner at 8-8.5f out of Champion 3yo filly Bird Town, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $5,000.  His 2018 sim crop (current 3yos and his first crop) currently ranks #156 overall, with 37 winners from 72 runners winning at a 15% rate.  His 3yo crop includes 1 dirt sprinting stakes winner, and his 2yo crop includes a horse who broke her maiden in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes race.  Overall, his sim foals have preferred dirt sprints (72% of earnings on dirt, 78% in sprints).  Cats N Birds is the 4th foal from 18yo mare Alley Cat.  Alley Cat raced for quite a while, crossing a finish line 71 times, with 7 wins among them.  All 7 of those came in dirt sprints, where she spent most of her career.  She took a few shots at the stakes level, but was never able to finish better than 5th in her 4 career tries.  Her first 3 foals are spaced out in age, but only her most recent, 3yo Alley D’Wild (D’Wildcat), has really done anything on the track, as he’s found a niche in Louisiana local races, resulting in 4 wins from 13 career races thus far. He seems to be equally adept to turf and dirt, and to this point, he has spent his entire career sprinting.  Cats N Birds dosage is 4.60, with a CD of 0.86, indicating a strong sprinting preference.

Expectations: Cats N Birds broke through in her last race, which is nice to see, and she’ll take on non-local dirt company for the first time here.  She seems to like being out on the front, so expect her to bolt from the gate and try and set the pace here.  There are some questions about whether she overdoes it early, however, as she’s been tiring late in each of her 3 races and this will be her longest race to date.  But it’s possible that having the 3 race foundation under her will help improve her stamina; we’ll see here.

Watch Level: Low

#2 – Blues Explosion (Violence x Kabamezi [First Samurai x Smart Strike]) – Owned by saluki9 – 9/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Blues Explosion began her career at 5f on the dirt in Kentucky back on April 1.  On that day, she sat towards the back of a field of 10, but was only 2 lengths off the lead.  From there, she came running late, passing most of the field on her way to a 1 length victory, earning a 69 SP.  Although that race doesn’t look that strong (none of the field has broken their maidens yet), Blues Explosion will try to capitalize and move forward here.

Pedigree: Violence, the #45 overall (and #1 second-crop) US sire in 2018, was a G1 winner at 8.5f in his career and currently stands in Kentucky for $40,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently consists of 89 runners and 42 winners, winning at a 13.5% rate.  Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, including Got Them All, winner of the Wooden Indian-G1 and 17th in the Bluegrass Derby-G1.  Violence’s sim foals have shown a preference for dirt (68% of earnings on dirt), while being fairly evenly split between sprints and routes (52% in sprints, though his best sim foals have been routers), although his real world AWD of 6.63 indicates a higher preference for sprinting. Blues Explosion is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Kabamezi, the winner of 5 races in her 20 race career.  That career was spent primarily on the turf, with her fastest races coming at the 8f distance, though she was capable anywhere from 6-8.5f.  Her best foal to date is 4yo filly Kabasaluki (Warrior’s Reward), who just narrowly missed in an 8f stakes back in December 2018 and had a record of 11:6-5-0 going into her 4yo year (though she’s had a couple of rough starts as a 4yo).  Overall, Kabamezi’s foals have done their best running at 8f on the dirt.  There is one other Violence x First Samurai horse bred in the sim in the past 5 years, and he has been more of a turf runner, putting up some solid allowance runs in turf routes.  Blues Explosion’s dosage index of 2.43 and CD of 0.58 are, much like Violence’s other sim stats, a little conflicting but make it somewhat likely that she would prefer the mile range.

Expectations: Blues Explosion put something solid together in her first start, and it looks like she’ll be happier getting a little more ground.  Her two best siblings do their best running at 8f on the dirt, so she might end up liking distances slightly longer than this, but the stretch out here should at least make her happy.  Expect her to sit midpack or further back here and then try to make a move late.

Watch Level: High

#3 – Redarro (Cupid x She’s A Beast [Giant’s Causeway x Dynaformer]) – Owned by teesaggro0 – 10/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Race History: Redarro’s debut came back on April 26, when she took on a 6f dirt Hot MSW in Kentucky.  Her competition that day consisted of 1 CPU horse and 2 other fillies, so it wasn’t the strongest competition.  Still, Redarro did what you want to see when a horse takes on inferior completion; she made easy work of her opponents.  Sitting over 3 lengths back early, Redarro came flying late, easily passing the pacesetter and drawing off to win by 1-3/4.  She earned only a 61 SP in that win, but she steps up the competition today to prove that she belongs at this level.

Pedigree: Cupid, a graded stakes winner from 8.5f-10f, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $10,000.  His freshman 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #264 overall, with 44 winners from 77 runners to date, winning at a 14% rate.  The crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 scoring in dirt routes and the third in a turf sprint.  The class has shown a preference for dirt races overall (77% of earnings on dirt), though it’s still too early to tell a distance preference until 3yos can get more routes in.  Redarro is the 3rd foal from 7yo mare She’s a Beast.  She’s a Beast, out of a G1-winning mare, won 8 of her 22 career starts, spending most of that career at the 9-10f dirt distance (and showing some ability at even longer distances).  That career included a 2nd place finish in a 9.5f dirt stakes.  Her first two foals, however, have not shown quite as much talent early on.  4yo Knockingatthedoor (Tapit) is only now finding his way, as he has found the 12-16f distances to be more to his liking, whereas She’s A Beast’s 3yo filly has not yet broken her maiden after 7 starts, now running at the claiming level.  The Cupid x Giant’s Causeway cross has been used 5 times in the past 2 years, with 1 of those being more of a dirt router and one being a sprinter, but it’s too early in those careers to really draw any conclusions.  Redarro’s dosage index of 1.93 and CD of 0.41 indicate a preference for slightly longer races.

Expectations: There’s not a whole lot that we can glean from Redarro’s first career race, other than that it appears she prefers to come from behind.  That shouldn’t be a problem here, as she’ll have some speed to run into.  The hot race likely didn’t take much out of her, but it also didn’t give us much of an idea of how much talent, if any, this filly has.  We’ll see today.

Watch Level: Medium

#4 – Dry Eyes (Palace Malice x Godspeed Hellbound [Dynaformer x Forty Niner]) – Owned by sparkit – 12/1

Race Record: 3:1-0-0; $10,956

Race Record: One of the veterans in the field, Dry Eyes has already raced 3 times in her career.  She broke her maiden at first asking on February 2, in a 5.5f turf MSW in a field of 13.  There, she dueled for the lead early and grabbed it as they turned for home, pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths with a 66 SP.  Dry Eyes regressed a little next time out at 5f on the turf, where she raced evenly and finished 5th (though the top 3 from that race have each gone on to win, including the winner of that NW2L event, who scored in a stakes race next time out). She enters this race off of a surface switch, as she tried dirt in a 6f local NW2L and again raced evenly, earning a career-high 67 SP but finishing 8th in the race (though the winner of that race also went on to stakes victory next time out, with a ridiculous 86 SP).  Dry Eyes will try to improve off of that run here.

Pedigree: Palace Malice, winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes, currently stakes for $15,000 in Kentucky but his real progeny have not yet hit the track.  In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #107, with 58 winners from 98 runners winning at a 15% rate (a little below his average of 16.5%).  Among those 58 winners are 2 stakes winners, Palace Stormer, who has been succeeding in turf sprints, and Into Malice, a dirt sprinter. In general, Palace Malice’s sim progeny have preferred dirt (77% of earnings on dirt), with a pretty even mix of sprints and routes.  He has had 1 graded stakes winner to date.    Dry Eyes is the 7th foal from 11yo mare Godspeed Hellbound, a winner of 7 races in her 30 race career.  In addition to those wins, she was a 3-time stakes placed horse at 8-10f on the turf (which is generally where she did her best running).  She hasn’t really passed down that ability to her foals, however, as only 2 of her 6 previous foals have picked up an allowance win.  There also doesn’t seem to be a common thread in terms of race type, as even though most of her foals’ wins have come on turf, some of their fastest races have been on dirt.  Palace Malice has been bred to a Dynaformer mare 6 times in the past 5 years, but only 1 of those 6 has picked up an allowance win (doing so in a long-distance turf race).  The fastest speeds for the combo have been on turf, though dirt races haven’t been bad either.  Dry Eyes’ dosage index of 1.40 and CD of 0.28 suggest that she wants to run much longer than today’s distance.

Expectations: Dry Eyes has an advantage over some in this field simply by having already raced 3 times.  Unfortunately, her last 2 efforts have left something to be desired.  But it turns out the winners from those races have been very strong horses, so she might be able to do something here coming from a few lengths off the pace.

Watch Level: Low

#5 – Ship The Kash (Midshipman x Kash Street [Street Cry x Bernardini]) – Owned by kashbarn – 7/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Ship The Kash began her racing career in Iowa, in a 5f dirt MSW on April 13.  This filly only caught a field of 5 and went off as the even money favorite.  Sure enough, after sitting 4th early, 1-1/2 lengths back, she came on strong late and pulled away to win by 1 length.  More impressive was the 74 SP that she earned for the win.  The horse that Ship The Kash defeated would come back next time out to break her own maiden with a 72 SP.  Ship The Kash stretches out to 6.5f here as she tries to duplicate her last performance.

Pedigree: Midshipman, winner of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was the #66 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $8,500.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #247 overall, with 27 winners from 46 runners, winning at a 17.5% rate.  One of those winners found victory in an ASR residency-restricted stakes at 8f on the dirt.  But in general, Midshipman’s sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 62% in sprints), which is in line with his real world 6.71 AWD.  Ship The Kash is the 2nd foal from 7yo mare Kash Street.  Kash Street was a winner of 5 races out of her 30 career efforts, though she ran 2nd or 3rd in 18 of the 30, only running worse than 4th twice on dirt.  Most of her career was spent in dirt route allowances, with her best coming in the 9-10f range.  She did get close to a graded stakes placing, finishing 4th in her only career stakes effort in the 2017 King Classic-G2, although she was beaten 11 lengths in that race.  Her first foal, Kash Profit (Tapit), has shown some serious promise thus far, with 3 wins from 7 career starts (though he stumbled in his attempt at the California Derby-G1, where he finished a well-beaten 12th).  Midshipman has been bred to a Street Cry mare 7 times in the past 5 years, with 5 of those 7 earning a win thus far.  The best have been dirt sprinters to date.  Ship The Kash’s dosage index of 3.57 and CD of 0.81 put this 6.5f race right in line with what her pedigree suggests she wants.

Expectations: It was a dominant performance out of the gate for Ship The Kash, made even more impressive by the fact that she only took on 4 opponents.  She should sit midpack or further back in this race, and will try to progress late to repeat her last run.  She definitely has potential, but can she sustain it?

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Renown Runner (Anchor Down x Hushwing Stebbing [Elusive Quality x Royal Academy]) – Owned by hoosier12 – 13/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,080

Race History: Renown Runner is one of the few to have tried this distance already.  In her debut back on April 14 at 6.5f on the dirt, she took on a field of 6, and although she was the 4th choice at 9/2, she grabbed the lead early and never looked back, easily winning by 2-1/4 lengths.  She earned a 68 SP in the win.  The 3rd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 76 SP, so expect Renown Runner to potentially show some improvement here.

Pedigree: Anchor Down, a G2-winning dirt miler (who was 2nd to Frosted in the 2016 Met Mile), currently stands for $7,500 and entered stud in Kentucky in 2017, so none of his real life foals have hit the track.  His 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently includes 56 runners, 29 of which have won at a 13.5% rate.  Among those is 1 stakes winner, who picked up that win in a short turf sprint, but in general his sim horses have largely preferred dirt sprints (73% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints). Renown Runner is the 6th foal from 9yo mare Hushwing Stebbing.  Hushwing Stebbing won 2 races in her 29 race career, but neither win was all that impressive.  Most of her races, and her best efforts, came in dirt routes, though she was never really more than a claimer.  Her foals have done slightly better than she ever did; her first foal, LV Excalibur (Hansen) was primarily a local dirt router in South Korea, but did pick up a local residency-restricted stakes win as well as some other local stakes placings, in dirt routes ranging anywhere from 8-16f.  The only other real consistent runner, Hushwing Algo LV (Algorithms), was best in the 8-9f dirt range.  The Anchor Down x Elusive Quality cross has been used 1 other time, but thus far the 3yo gelding has shown no real interest in racing.  Renown Runner’s dosage index is 3.44, with a 0.75 CD, indicating a preference for sprinting.

Expectations: Renown Runner set the pace in her first race, but she’s facing a much larger field here and might have trouble doing that again.  The bloodlines aren’t particularly strong here, with a bargain sire out of a hot allowance-winning mare, but that doesn’t mean Renown Runner can’t outrun her lineage.

Watch Level: High

#7 – Stone of Orbos (Henny Hughes x Priceless Gift [Cherokee Run x Dixie Union]) – Owned by golfteam3 – 12/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: Stone of Orbos made her debut on April 19 in a 5f dirt MSW at Iowa.  She broke a step slow in the field of 9, dropping 3 lengths back early, but got into the race late and came flying at the end, just barely getting up to win the photo by a nose.  She earned a 67 SP for her win as the 4/1 3rd choice.  The 4th place runner from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 67 SP.  Stone of Orbos will try to make things a little easier on herself this time as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Henny Hughes, a multiple G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Japan for 3.5MM Yen and was the #24 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop took a big leap over earlier crops, currently ranking #50 overall with 94 runners and 61 winners, winning at a 19% rate.  2 of those runners have achieved stakes victories, one in a short sprint on dirt and one in a sprint on turf.  Much like the real horse, Henny Hughes’ sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints).  Stone of Orbos is the 6th foal (all fillies) from 12yo mare Priceless Gift, who won 9 of her 47 career races.  Nearly all of those came on the dirt, and although she has a fair number of route efforts to her name, most of Priceless Gift’s success came in dirt sprints.  Her best races actually came on the off track.  Her foals have done ok for themselves, with most of them turning out to be dirt sprinters like their mother.  One of her foals, Four Houses (Lion Heart) is a multiple stakes placed filly at 6.5f on the dirt.  Stone of Orbos’s dosage index doesn’t really tell us much, as there are only 2 chef-de-race point involved (he has a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 1.00).

Expectations: Stone of Orbos took a somewhat surprising route to victory in her first race, as she dropped to the back of the pack in a 5f race and still came on to win.  This filly really seems to have a nose for where the finish line is.  Her speed figure may not be as high as some of the others in here, but she’s got an interesting look to her and she should like the added distance today.

Watch Level: Medium

#8 – Loose Cash (Blame x A.P. Indy x Unbridled) – Owned by gliffo8 - 5/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Loose Cash debuted at today’s 6.5f dirt distance in Kentucky back on April 11, and did it in style.  Off as the 4/1 4th choice, Loose Cash dueled for the lead early and quickly put away the other challenger, opening up to lead by 1-1/4 and then maintaining that lead through the finish.  Loose Cash earned a strong 73 SP in the victory, though none of her competition from that race has backed her up (no one has finished better than 3rd, or cracked the 70 SP, in their follow-ups).  Loose Cash will look to repeat that performance here.

Pedigree: Blame, the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $30,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #131 overall, with 41 winners from 84 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.  His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.52 AWD.  The cream of the 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 5 in dirt sprints, including the graded stakes wins at 7f.  There are 22 sim horses that share the Blame x A.P. Indy bloodlines over the past 5 years.  Of those, 6 have found the winner’s circle in stakes races, primarily in dirt routes (or longer), with 3 achieving graded stakes victories.  However, most of the Blame x A.P. Indy horses are later bloomers – although half broke their maidens as a 2yo, only 2 of the 22 horses managed to win at the allowance level as a 2yo.  Loose Cash’s 2.73 dosage index and 0.64 CD show that much like the others with similar bloodlines, she might prefer longer distances than today’s race.

Expectations: Loose Cash already has the experience at this distance and put up one of the fastest prior races in the field.  Coupled with her solid bloodlines, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.  The one drawback is that she might prefer longer distances that today’s.  Granted, you won’t get that for a 2yo at this point in the year, so Loose Cash really only has more room to grow as the races get longer.

Watch Level: High

#9 – We Gotta Talk (Curlin x A.P. Indy x Private Account) – Owned by 4stardave – 9/2 (f)

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: We Gotta Talk got her career off on the right foot first time out.  Taking on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky, We Gotta Talk battled the pace early, but when the other pacesetters couldn’t keep up, she inherited the lead and never looked back.  We Gotta Talk won by a clear length, earning a 71 SP, and none of her competitors really gained any ground on her late.  The 4th place horse from that race took a huge leap next time out to win an MSW, though 2nd and 3rd from the race didn’t see much of a jump next time out and are still looking to break their maidens.  We Gotta Talk will try to make it 2 for 2 here.

Pedigree: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.  In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #26 overall, with 102 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.  That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1 back in September 2018.  Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.  Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.  The Curlin x A.P. Indy cross has resulted in 55 runners over the past 5 years, 42 of which (76%) are winners.  7 of those have earned stakes victories (though none have found Graded Stakes success just yet), with the majority of those pulling off the feat in dirt routes.  41% of the Curlin x A.P. Indy 2yos that broke their maiden as a 2yo have gone on to win an allowance race as a 2yo.  We Gotta Talk’s dosage index of 3.29 and CD of 0.73 suggest that she might love sprinting here.

Expectations: We Gotta Talk put together a strong debut, where she went off as the 3/1 favorite and ran like it.  She should be forwardly placed again here, and the bloodlines look like they produce solid 2yos.  We Gotta Talk might be happier once the races stretch out even more, but repeating at 6.5f to start her career won’t hurt.

Watch Level: High

#10 – By Var The Best (Var x Given Away Kash [Any Given Saturday x Dynaformer] – Owned by onamission – 8/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $27,000

Race History: By Var The Best kicked off her career on April 13 in a 5f dirt MSW in Iowa.  Taking on a field of 4, she sat last early, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back before turning on the jets.  But she turned them on without a problem and crossed the finish line ¾ length ahead, earning a 72 SP as the 6/5 favorite.  She’ll stretch out some here as she tries to pick up win #2.

Pedigree: Var, a G1 winning turf sprinter, was the #3 ranked South African sire in 2018.  His sim foals are slowly starting the catch up to that, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 54 winners from 72 runners, winning at an 18% rate.  2 of those 54 have found stakes victories, one who is a stakes winner at 7.5f on the dirt and G3-placed at 8f, and the other who is a stakes winner at 5-6f on the dirt.  His sim foals have primarily been sprinters (67% of earnings in sprints), with an ever-so-slight preference for dirt (56% on dirt).  By Var The Best is the 5th foal from 10yo mare Given Away Kash.  Given Away Kash won 6 of her 39 career races, but really excelled as a 2yo, winning 2 stakes races in dirt sprints in her 2nd and 3rd career starts.  She also ended up as a stakes placed turf sprinter and turf routers, and actually put up her best speed figures at 8f on the dirt.  Her first foal, 6yo mare Collecting Kash (City Place), inherited a fair amount of her mother’s talent, and was 4-time stakes placed at 8.5-9.5f on both turf and dirt.  The other founds haven’t found quite as much hardware and instead preferring to dominate the claiming and starter ranks.  Var has been bred to an Any Given Saturday mare 3 times in the past 5 years, though neither of the others have done much of note on the track.  Unlike most of Var’s foals, the dosage index of By Var The Best says that his best races will be much longer, with a 1.67 DI and a 0.38 CD.

Expectations: By Var The Best found an easy spot in her first race but capitalized on it, putting up a strong speed figure for this field.  The indications are that she likes to make a late run, so expect her to sit somewhere in the middle or further back.  By Var The Best doesn’t have the bluest of bloodlines, though it’s also not quite the bargain bloodlines of some of the others in this field.  There’s potential here for a breakout 2yo campaign.

Watch Level: Medium

#11 – Rowdy Cura Storm (Curandero x Pomeroy Storm [Pomeroy x Storm Cat]) – Owned by simhorse16 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $16,860

Race History: The oddsmakers might not like Rowdy Cura Storm’s debut, but it was a solid run nonetheless.  Taking on a 5.5f dirt MSW in Ohio on April 17, Rowdy Cura Storm broke very slow and started 11th in a field of 13, dropping 2-1/2 lengths back.  But she came flying late, circling the entire field in time to get up to win by ¼ length at 14/1.  The speed figure was only a 66, but the horse she edged out would come back to break her maiden next time out with a 71 SP.  Rowdy Cura Storm looks to prove that her last race was no fluke as she stretches out a bit here.

Pedigree: Curandero, an unraced son of Storm Cat out of a Forty Niner mare, currently stands in Texas for $1,000 and was the #57 ranked Texas sire in 2018.  His 2018 sim crop ranks #1,001 overall, but that’s because it only contains 6 runners, 3 of which have won at an insane 26% rate.  That number is buoyed by The Alamo, who has been very successful in the local claiming ranks, mostly on the turf in the 7-8.5f range.  Curandero does have 1 sim stakes winner in 4yo Fairhope, a stakes winner and G3-placed colt at 7.5f on the dirt.   His foals at usually sprints (67% of earnings in sprints), but have a pretty even split on surfaces (52% on dirt, though that might owe to his few best foals being solid dirt horses while most others prefer turf).  Rowdy Cura Storm is the 4th foal from 8yo mare Pomeroy Storm.  Pomeroy Storm debuted as a 3yo and looked pretty good early, winning 3 of her first 4 races and 4 of her first 6 (including 2 local allowances), but she was never again able to find the winner’s circle in her 31 career races.  She proved to be a dirt runner, preferring anywhere from 6-8f.  Her first 3 foals have all been dirt sprinters but none has been all that impressive, with only 1 combined allowance win in 42 total races.  Rowdy Cura Storm’s DI of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right about average distances based on her bloodlines (which are 2×3 inbred to Storm Cat).

Expectations: Rowdy Cura Storm is a bargain bred horse, and thus the oddsmakers may not like her, but her last race was a solid run.  She gets another furlong here, which doesn’t look like it will hurt her, and she showed a closing kick in her first race when coming from the back.  But her speed in her first race was a little behind the best in here, and it looks like she’ll need to take a step forward to really stamp herself as legit here.

Watch Level: Medium

#12 – Vale Redoute (Schoolyard Dreams x Redoustina [Redoute’s Choice x Crafty Prospector]) – Owned by superfecta – 22/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $33,720

Race History: Vale Redoute pulled off a bit of an upset in her debut.  Going off at 13/1 in a field of 9 in a 5f dirt MSW at Kentucky on April 4, Vale Redoute dropped back early, sitting about 2 lengths back.  She started to move up as they reach the top of the stretch and then came on strong late, just getting up to win by ¾ length.  The win earned her a 64 SP.  Of note, the 2nd place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 65 SP.  Vale Redoute will try to extend that late run here as she stretches out to 6.5f.

Pedigree: Schoolyard Dreams, a multiple graded stakes placed dirt miler, entered stud in Canada in 2015 and currently stands for $2,000.  His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #1,063, with 11 winners from 21 runners to date, winning at a 21.5% rate.  The sim foals have largely been dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 76% in sprints), and although none have achieved stakes victories yet (and only 4 have allowance wins), Flew Too High has been by far the most successful foal thus far, finishing 2nd in The Rebel Yell-G3 at 8.5f on the dirt.  Vale Redoute is the 5th foal from 13yo mare Redoustina, a 3-time stakes winner and G3-placed dirt sprinter.  Redoustina did most of her damage in the 5.5-6.5f range (though she has a stakes win at 7.5f as well).  Her foals, however, seem to be hit-or-miss, with an emphasis on the miss.  The one exception to that is 6yo Creedoustina (Jimmy Creed), who managed to pick up a stakes win at 5.5f to end his 3yo campaign en route to 6 wins from 22 starts thus far.  Vale Redoute’s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right in the middle when it comes to preferred distances.

Expectations: Vale Redoute has a solid backend to her pedigree, though her bargain sire is likely the reason she went off at 13/1 in her debut and is 22/1 today.  But that doesn’t mean that this filly can’t be great.  Her debut race was a solid one as she came from behind to take the victory, and the added distance here doesn’t hurt.  She may need to step it up a notch here in order to win, but it’s not ridiculous to think that she could.

Watch Level: Medium

#13 – Yankee Justine (Justify x Yankee Cinnamon [Giant’s Causeway x Tale of the Cat]) – Owned by Yankeetown – 9/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-1; $39,340

Race History: The sponsor of this race, Yankee Justine is one of the few with more than 1 career race under her belt.  Her debut came back on February 2 in a 4.5f dirt MSW at Kentucky.  In a field of 11, she battled the pace early but couldn’t quite keep up late, finishing 3rd and earning a 64 SP.  But the race did her good, and Yankee Justine would go on to win her 2nd race, a 5.5f MSW on April 6, by 1 length after sitting just off the pace early.  She earned a 69 SP in the win.  The 2nd place horse in her most recent race would run 2nd again next time out at the MSW level.  Yankee Justine stretches out again to 6.5f here.

Pedigree: Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, currently stands in Kentucky for $150,000.  His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 27 winners from 88 runners to date.  Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with one colt having picked up a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win to kick off his career (and most recently was 4th in the Vermont BB Juvenile-G2 at 6f on the dirt). Yankee Justine is the first foal from 4yo early-retired mare Yankee Cinnamon.  Yankee Cinnamon was a stakes winner who earned 10 wins in her 20 race career.  Her one stakes win came in career start #2, where she took home a 5f dirt 2yo stakes.  But most of her career was spent at the hot allowance level, with the slight majority of her races and wins coming in turf routes, but her fastest speed figures coming in dirt routes.  Only 2 of the 4 foals by Justify out of a Giant’s Causeway mare have hit the track yet, and Yankee Justine is the only one with a win.  With a dosage index of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38, Yankee Justice might be biding her time for longer races later in the year.

Expectations: Yankee Justine’s first 2 races have seen her sit just off the pacesetters early, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her forwardly placed here.  For a sire pedigree line, she is quite the blue blood, and one would expect her to get better as the distances increase. But I’m not sure the dam was quite as strong as she first looks on paper (though the dam’s line has a G3 winner and a G3-placed horse as the granddam and great-granddam, so there’s some promise in the bloodlines.

Watch Level: High

#14 – Lady Tornado (Toronado x Lady Grinning Soul [Palace Malice x Dansili (GB)]) – Owned by leeleea21 – 23/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $10,680

Race History: Lady Tornado is the only filly in this field to have debuted at the claiming level. She kicked off her career on April 6 in a $20,000 MCL at 5.5f on the dirt in Illinois.  Running against a field of 4, she went off as the co-favorite at even money, and took off for the lead, never looking back.  She set the early pace and then drew off to win by 1-1/4 lengths, with a 57 SP.  Of note, the 2nd and 4th place horses in that race came back at the MCL level next time out and finished 3rd and 5th, respectively.  Lady Tornado makes the jump to the allowance level here to see if she can compete with the big girls.

Pedigree: Toronado, a multiple G1 winning turf miler in the UK, was the #162 ranked French sire in 2018 (it may have been his first crop) and currently stands in France for $12,000.  Toronado’s 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #855 overall, with 20 winners from 37 runners winning at a 9% rate.  None of those horses has had stakes success yet, though one was G2-placed as a 2yo in a turf mile.  His sim foals significantly favor the turf (78% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even sprint/route split (53% in routes).  Lady Tornado is the second foal from 5yo mare Lady Grinning Soul, who won 2 of 26 races in her career.  Her maiden win was at 8f on the turf in a hot race, and her only other win was in a $20K claimer at 8.5f. Most of her races came on the turf in the 7-8.5f range, though she did her best running around the mile.  Her first foal, 3yo Brody’s Grinning (Brody’s Cause), seemed to take a little while to get going but now has a 6:1-1-4 record, starting to excel as a deep closer as he stretches out.  Lady Tornado’s dosage index of 1.22 and CD of 0.20 indicate a preference for longer races.

Expectations: Lady Tornado wasn’t the most highly touted 2yo to debut and doesn’t have the greatest bloodlines, but she did what she needed to do in her debut effort.  She went unclaimed so her owner has decided to see if she has the ability to compete at a higher level.  The speed figure from her debut is well below the others in this field, but the race setup didn’t require her to work any harder, so we expect to see some improvement here.  The only question is whether it will be enough improvement.

Watch Level: Low

That’s your field of 14 for this first 2yo Future Stars Series race.  Normally, I’d give my predictions, but I have no clue how to handicap a 2yo race where 11 of the 14 horses have only run once.  So my completely arbitrary predictions are: (1) Loose Cash; (2) Renown Runner; (3) We Gotta Talk.  Good luck!

Other 2yo Races To Watch This Weekend:

1)      Berkshire-ENG – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f

2)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f

3)      New York – URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f-T

4)      Texas – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)

5)      California – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f (Fillies)

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Oct 292015
 

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile

Kentucky (KY) | Saturday, October 23, 2015 | 2:40 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 2yos Only | 8.5 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

The 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile plays host to some of the world’s best dirt rookies, including the second rated two-year old dirt horse in the world STORM CAT HUMOR, third rated in the dirt rookie category LION’S SLEW, and fifth rated horse in the category LIGHTNING STRIFE, among others. With fourteen owners trying to give their horses the best chance at winning the biggest two-year-old race in the world, it should be a great one. Let’s go now to the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile.

    1     HADROSAUR (SKOR) lost will last time out in the North Fork GI, falling from first to tenth in that outing. He is by HANSEN out of stakes winning mare SOUR GOLF, but this is her only stakes winning (and graded stakes winning) foal. His only notable win is the GIII Pea Patch Juvenile two starts back. The colt may have trouble with his up-front running style, with several other of those types of runners attempting the Juvy. This could be a tough one for the youngster, and he’s a longshot at 17-1. His owner was not available to comment on him.

|   2   | LINGERING SMOKE (USA) is stepping up from the GIII level with his first major win (and start) of his career on Saturday. This scratch-bred is by DROSSELMEYER and uses the DS DEHERE, which seems to have been a pretty potent mix. His only major win was the GIII Charcoal Breeder’s Cup. Racing on the slop for that one and racing in a route for the second time, he looked dominant. However, it’s a massive undertaking to go from a GIII to the BB. He’s gonna need to sweat for all he’s worth to win this one. Steve555 did not comment on his horse’s chances.

    3     BLANK SPACE (USA) is also a GIII stepper, coming up from a win in the Times Square Derby. By TAPIT, and out of GI winning mare TAYLOR’S STORY (who is also out of a GI winner), his pedigree was very promising, and as a two-year-old GIII winner, I’d say he’s lived up to expectations. With his first major win last time, and a 100 SP, he looks good into the race. However, he is also going to have to run strongly to beat this strong bunch. The colt is 7-1, but unfortunately, Deyoto was unavailable for an interview.

    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE (USA) comes off the first grade one win of his career. His big wins have been the GIII Trixy Delight’s Special and the GI North Fork Stakes. By superstar AWESOME AGAIN, and out of the stakes winning mare MAGPIES CAT- who has produced two GI winners, two GII winners and two other stakes winners, this colt is incredibly well bred. Very impressive last time in the GI North Fork Stakes, this colt swept by foes to win- seemingly easily. This colt has a fantastic career ahead of him, especially if he wins the BB Juvenile. A good bet at 7-1. Here’s the word from trainer Punter34: “Pretty happy with how the horse has progressed and hoping he will give a good show. Been playing this game long enough to know anything can happen but wouldn’t swap my horse for anything. Hopefully he can get a nice position and finish off like he has been.”

    5     PULPASNITZ (USA) has GI experience, finishing third last time in the North Fork Stakes. By SNITZEL and out of a mare who is yet to produce a stakes winner (yes, including this colt), his breeding was no guarantee. Nonetheless, the colt can produce with a good move in the North Fork. Racing against many horses who were also in that grade one, he will need to step it up, but has a good chance led by N Lawton, the rider who guided him in that North Fork Stakes. The horse has the talent, but he will need a good trip. I’d take his odds of 15-1, at least in your pick four. I could not find Sixesplus (a singular stable, with just eleven horses), this horse’s owner.

    6     DEADMONEY CADET (USA) comes up from an End Of The Line Futurity GI, where he actually gained late, but lost a position, as he finished third by a neck. He doesn’t have any major wins besides a listed stakes (the June Stakes 100k), but has been close in his past two. A scratch-bred by great sire MORE THAN READY, with the DS UNBRIDLED’S SONG, his breeding is spectacular, and he’s currently looking very promising. A colt that can get it done at 9-1 off a good performance. Here’s what Cadet had to say: “DEADMONEY CADET is pretty game and has been training sharply. We have been working him in company behind horses to get him to rate his speed a bit more. I feel he was a bit dead in the stretch in his last run and will need to improve his kick in order to get the top spot in the BB. DEADMONEY has shown top class and guts this year grinding out a couple graded placings, I feel a similar effort in the BB would be satisfactory, obviously getting as many graded points towards the derby is the plan. A lot of talented 2 yr olds are in the entry box and a couple that have already posted triple digit figures. Looks like might be a top 5 choice, but the only one without graded success. A change in tactics, third run at two turns, a little improvement, a lot of racing luck, and we feel he might just be good enough.”

    7     VYRANTIUM (USA) is one of the more experienced of the bunch, with four wins from seven starts. He’s got one listed stakes victory and one major win in the GII Hoserhead Stakes. By very good sire MORE THAN READY and out of stakes winning mare BREAKNECK, who has produced one GII winner (this colt) and two other stakes winners among five runners. In his past two, she was third by three lengths in the Hopeless Stakes GI, and moving into a routing contest for the first time, the distance clearly helped, as he was second by only a head in that contest (to NUREYEV’S GHOST), while switching to his regular jock’s brother, R Radzinski. Today I think the colt has a very good chance, but the shorter rest may hinder the youngster. Nonetheless, he looks sharp at 7-1, and his trainer said this: “There’s good news and bad news going into the race for me. Good news is his mare was best at 8.5/9F. Bad news is his siblings have been better sprinting. Tough race with a lot of runners who have already won routing – something my guy hasn’t done. I could win or run last – it looks to be a very competitive race.”

    8     STORM CAT HUMOR (USA) is off a terrific three race winning streak, in which all of her major wins have occurred. Those are: the GIII Montana Futurity, the GII Standford, and the GI Dell Computer Futurity. A scratch-bred by DISTORTED HUMOR, using STORM CAT as the dam-sire, the breeding has clearly been effective. With the most earnings of any starter ($801,360), he’s improving with every run. The colt however, does not have any route experience, though he did seem to enjoy seven furlongs last time. His mid-pack style could suit today’s distance, but it’s hard to tell his abilities as a router. He still looks very good. He’s 8-1, and here’s what his owner had to say: “This has been one of my favorite horses in the barn. After starting his career overseas I brought him to the states back in June with this race as the goal. He has proved to be a top sprinter but I think he could get better as he stretches out. I mapped out his path to this race early and wanted him to have a little break before this race. He won the Dell Computer Futurity very easily and looked like he had plenty left in that race. Think he has a big chance here.”

    9     MAKE EM BELIEVE (USA) bounced back well in the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile, following a poor performance in the GII Hoserhead Juvenile GII. By MACHO UNO and out of a GII winning mare JUPITER THE SEA, the good breeding has paid off. With major wins in the GII Vermont BB Juvenile and the GIII Cryogenics Juvenile. He looks sharp coming off a nice win in a route for the first time, and he looks good for all exotic wagering at 13-1. His owner, Mrxrayz, could not be found to comment on any of his three runners.

   10    KAMDEN (USA) enters just the third race of his career, taking a sharp step up to the GI level from allowance last time. No major wins to date. This scratch-bred is by BLAME, with the dam-sire A. P. INDY, and is well bred. After a maiden win with an 84 SP, he was second in his NW2l allowance. Taking a very big step, he then made a move for the North Fork Stakes GI and was beaten by none other than LIGHTNING STRIFE, finishing second by two lengths. This colt shows a lot of potential, and can very well win the Juvy in the fourth start of his career. You’ll find 11-1 on him. No word from his trainer.

   11    LION’S SLEW (TUR) represents one of two international-born colts, and looks very good to take it for Turkey. He’s a scratch-bred by LION HEART, and the dam-sire SEATTLE SLEW. This colt won the Hopeless Stakes GI in his most recent (his only major win), going wire-to-wire. His career high SP jumped from an 86 to a 98 as well in that contest, and he now switches to two turn racing for the first time. Guided by A Jolly, who is a slight downgrade from T Ace- who he got last time, but this horse looks ready to go. A good choice at a fantastic 11-1. His owner, Stockswami said this: “He has been a real joy to be around. He is less then 1/2 length from being a perfect 6 for 6. Like many of the top horses at this stage he has shown a tendency to jump right to the front and see if anyone can catch him. So far that has been a winning formula but with many horses wanting to run the same type race, this should be a fun one to watch. If he can get the distance he could be tough.”

   12    MACH THREE LAUNCH (USA) moves up from his second GIII in a row, catching by half a length in his latest at a mile. By MACHO UNO out of REDHEAD NICOLE, who has three stakes winners (including this colt) in her progeny count. After a big win, the colt gets jockey S Ledwith, and needs a good trip to get it done. From a GIII to the Breeder’s Bowl is a tough step. He’s 12-1. Again, Mrxrayz could not be found for a comment.

   13    NUREYEV’S GHOST (USA) recently scored his first GI win, going wire-to-wire in the End Of The Line Futurity, and headbobbed his way to victory to win by a head. That was his only major win to date. The scratch-bred by GHOSTZAPPER has now covered his breeding cost and more. Of five races, the colt has a maiden win, allowance win, and GI win, while finishing third in one of two listed stakes starts. This colt has a lot of early speed and looks worthy of a Breeder’s Bowl win with a most recent 97 speed rating. He’s 7-1, and we’ll go to trainer Stockswami to comment on one of his three entries: “He is another horse that likes to get out in front and let everyone else play catch up. The one thing he has over my other two horses is he has shown he can get this distance. He seems to be improving the more distance he runs. He also gets one of the top Jockeys in the world, so think he has a good shot of being somewhere close at the finish.”

   14    GIANT STORM BREWIN (USA) was a live third in the Sparkling Wine Stakes GI, and will look to improve on that performance here. He’s got no major wins to his name, but two big ITM finishes. By GIO PONTI out of allowance winning dam NORTHWEST PASSAGE II (the first one was unsafe?) who has one stakes winner and one GII winner as her notable offspring. He looks for his first stakes win, and that could be a tough undertaking in a BB race. He’s a nice horse, but from the fourteen hole, it’ll be tough. He’s 12-1, and here’s what his connections say: “GIANT STORM BREWIN should relish the extra half furlong. I had high hopes early in his career after winning his first two starts, but he was pretty mediocre after that…until he really surprised me in the G2 7f race. I really just threw him in there because there weren’t any good matching conditions available. He really surprised there and followed up with the 3rd in the G1 to earn his chance. Honestly, I’m good with wherever he finishes because I really had no expectations in either of those previous two. Jock “J Dawg” has really seemed to get extra out of him so hoping he chooses on this week.” Unfortunately, it looks like J Dawg has chosen to bypass the Juvenile.

My Selections

1-    8     STORM CAT HUMOR

2-    4     LIGHTNING STRIFE

3-    7     VYRANTIUM

Longshot Play-   11    LION’S SLEW

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The Humane Distaff

 Posted by at 4:27 pm  Previews
May 022014
 

Its Derby week here in Kentucky, and although not the big draw on Saturday, there are plenty of exciting undercard races to fill up the afternoon to the Bluegrass Derby (G1). One of these races is The Humane Distaff (G1), a Grade I race at seven furlongs over the main dirt track. The race is open to fillies and mares, four-years of age and older. The race this year drew nearly a full field of thirteen horses. Lets take a look at each of the contenders going into the starting gate in The Humane Distaff (G1) this year.

1. Quality Zone – (Quality Road x Machiavellian x Northern Dancer) – nitro93 – G. De – 10/1

Making the first graded start of her career this weekend, the brown four-year-old filly is an accomplished listed stakes winner and has won eight times in her eighteen start racing career. The most recent start for the filly came in Baby Nop Dirt Mare Special, a listed stakes race over seven furlongs. The filly broke out of the gate over what was a sloppy dirt course and settled back in third off a few other horses, gained some ground midway through the race, but faded in the stretch to finish fourth, two and a quarter lengths off the pace. The filly set a speed figure of one hundred six for the race. The most recent win for the filly came last December during an allowance race at seven furlongs in Idaho. She broke just behind the front runner by a head, but quickly took over the lead and eventually won the race by  three and a half lengths. The filly will likely be forwardly placed on Saturday, probably no farther back than fourth,

2. Slew Betcha (ENG) – (Dansili (GB) x Mr. Prospector x Seattle Slew) - pointblank – M. Clooch – 11/1

A Grade I winner already after a sixteen start career, the English-bred chestnut four-year-old will be looking for her fifth career win this weekend in the Humane Distaff (G1). The most recent start for the filly came in New York during The Long Island Sprint (G2) over six furlongs. The filly came out of the gate and settled just off a few other horses in fifth but faded badly in the stretch to cross the wire in ninth, five lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of one hundred. The latest victory for the filly also came in New York, this as a three-year-old last year during The Priceless (G1) on a dirt track rated as good. The filly won that race in wire to wire fashion by half a length. Out of the gate on Saturday the filly will likely be placed up towards the front and could be a possible pacesetter in the race.

3. Charge The Mound – (Smart Strike x Rahy x Vice Regent) - wetfast – V. Jef – 9/1

In the third slot, this five-year-old filly has made eighteen lifetime starts and is graded placed, but still looking for that elusive graded win. The chestnut filly, winner of nine races so far in her career, made her most recent start here in Kentucky during The Virginia Madison (G2) over seven furlongs. Breaking out of the gate and settling back in the the fifth slot early on, the filly was urged to start moving forward midway through the race and crossed the wire in second, behind by just half a length and setting a speed figure of one hundred seven. The most recent win for the filly came in January during the Dragonbringer Dirt Mare Sprint, a listed stakes race over five furlongs. She was placed a little more forwardly in this race early on, hanging just off the pace of a couple of front runners in third, before moving to the lead midway through the race and going on to win by one and a quarter lengths. The filly will probably be placed mid-pack out of the gate on Saturday, but could possibly be placed up as close as fifth out of the gate.

4. Strikestar  – (Smart Strike x A.P. Indy x Storm Cat) - axemjack86 – D. Coleman – 6/1

Out of the Grade II winning broodmare Cat Five Storm, this five-year-old mare will be making her twentieth career start in the Humane Distaff (G1) t his weekend. The chestnut mare has already attained a Grade I victory for herself. She too made her most recent start in The Long Island Sprint (G2) over six furlongs. In this race the mare went straight to the lead out of the gate but wound up crossing the wire in second, back off the pace by one and a quarter lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred seven. She last won in October of last  year during The TOCA Sprint (G3) here in Kentucky. In this race she settled back early on in second and was made to stay off the lead until they came into the stretch, at which point she took the lead and won by a length and a half.  She will likely be forwardly placed on Saturday, likely either or our early pacesetter or sitting just behind the pace in second.

5. Dr. Sitarides – (Smart Strike x Storm Cat x El Prado) - wrecks2 – S. S. Ledwith – 10/1

Making the first graded stakes start of her career, the four-year-old brown filly is fairly lightly raced with just fifteen career starts. She is out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Dr. Pimple Popper. The most recent start for the brown filly came here in Kentucky over seven furlongs in the Dependant Shocker Dirt Mare Sprint, a listed stakes race. Settling back off the pace a little in third, the filly started to move up midway through the race and crossed the wire first by two and a quarter lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred ten, a lifetime best for the filly. Prior to this race the filly also won two consecutive allowance races overseas in the United Arab Emirates. The filly will likely want to be forwardly placed is well, preferably in the first three, or even possibly as the pacesetter, out of the gate this weekend.

6. Party Never Ends – (Congrats x Wild Again x Danzig) – warfront – O. Osbourne – 11/1

With just thirteen starts in her career to date, the four-year-old filly is already a Grade III winner and is out of the allowance winning broodmare Frank’s Burn. The a few of the other fillies in the race this weekend, she made her most recent start in The Long Island Sprint (G2) over six furlongs. Out of the gate she was well off the pace early on, settling far back in eleventh. She started moving up fairly early in the race and ultimately crossed the wire in fourth, coming up three and a half lengths short and setting a speed figure of one hundred two. The most recent win for the filly was overseas in Thailand during the Natural Spring Stakes (G3) over seven furlongs. She was just as far back off the pace early on in this race, but made it up to the front of the pack to cross the wire first and win by  a narrow margin of a neck. This filly will likely be trailing the field early on out of the gates on Saturday, but will likely start to make up that position fairly early in the race, which may be a good set up for her as the other fillies dashing for the front start to tire later on.

7. Summer Dream – (Summer Bird x Dream Run x Primo Dominie (GB)) - alleged - B. Gulch – 13/1

One of only two horses in the field this weekend to not have won at least a listed stakes start, this four-year-old filly has come close and is placed in listed stakes competition. She is out of the allowance winning broodmare Enjoy The Moment. The bay filly has won six starts in a total of sixteen career starts and brought home earnings of $239,930 for her connections. The most recent start for the filly came in New York during an allowance race over seven furlongs. Settling just off the pace in third out of the gate in the race, the filly stayed in that position until asked to challenge in the stretch, where she went on to cross the wire first by one and a half lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred seven, a lifetime best for the filly. The last listed stakes race for the filly was December of last year during the Race Series for grracers, where the filly finished second, narrowly missing the win by a margin of a neck. With the rest of the horses in the race that are going to want to be towards the front of the pace on Saturday, the filly will probably settle back more towards the middle of the field, or possibly farther back than where she would usually run.

 

8. Crossover Hit – (Smart Strike x Galileo x Seeking The Gold) - tenpin7 – D. Givins – 5/1

The early favorite for The Humane Distaff (G1) this year, the six-year-old mare is also the oldest to be going into the gate this Saturday. The chestnut mare has made twenty-two lifetime starts, winning eleven times in her racing career and already capturing a Grade I win. The most recent start for the mare was a couple of months ago in Florida during The Davey Jones  Handicap (G2) over seven furlongs. The mare went straight to the lead in the race and never faded as she took the sprint in wire to wire fashion, winning by half a length with a speed figure of one hundred ten. Prior to this the mare also consecutively won The Everclear Handicap (G1) in California over seven furlongs and a listed stakes race at the same distance in Oregon. Like much of the rest of the field this weekend, the mare would like to be forwardly placed and could factor in as a possible pacesetter.

9. Sabihonda – (Smart Strike x Ghostzapper x Pulpit) – bigtate04 – J. Dawg – 118/1

The last of five fillies and mares sired by Smart Strike to enter into The Humane Distaff (G1) this weekend, this is also the only mare in the field to have not at least placed in a stakes race prior to running this weekend. The five-year-old brown mare is the most experienced in the field with a total of thirty prior starts. Out of the allowance winning broodmare Zahaadid, the brown mare has won just twice in her racing career. The most recent start for the Kentucky-bred came in Florida during an allowance race over seven furlongs. Off the pace early on and breaking out of  the gate in tenth, the mare held back for much of the race and dropped position at the wire when she crossed eighteen and three-quarter lengths off the pace from the winner, setting a speed figure of seventy. The mare saw her most recent win in August of last year in a mile long allowance race in Virginia. Breaking close to the lead just off the pace in second, the mare was asked to challenge in the stretch and went on to win the race by one and three-quarter lengths. On Saturday, the mare will probably be expected to trail the rest of the field early.

10. Mock Draft – (More Than Ready x Unbridled’s Song x Rahy) - psyduck – M. Wallace – 6/1

A standout roan filly in the race this weekend, the four-year-old is out of the allowance winning broodmare Magic Song. Lightly raced at fifteen career starts, the filly is already a Grade II winner and will be making her first Grade I start this weekend in The Humane Distaff (G1). The most recent start for the roan filly was in Florida during The Davey Jones Handicap (G2). Breaking mid-pack out of the gate and settling into fifth position early, the filly began to pick off other runners fairly early in the race, but only managed to cross the wire in third, two and a quarter lengths off the pace. She set a speed figure of one hundred six for the race. Her most recent win was just the start prior during an allowance race over seven furlongs. Running in much the same style as she did in The Davey Jones Handicap (G2), the filly did make it to the front and went on to win by three-quarters of a length. Her most recent win came in August last year overseas in Spain during the Snownut Handicap (G2) over a mile. Setting just off the pace in third early on, she made a move down the stretch that led her to winning the race by a quarter of a length. This weekend the filly will likely be placed towards the middle or latter half of the pack early on.

11. Kerwhizz (AUS) - (Encosta De Lago (AUS) x Forty Niner x Deputy Minister) – kevoman –  B.Scott – 12/1

Out of the listed stakes placed broodmare Friend Daisy, this Australian-bred five-year-old mare is a Grade  I winner of over $700,000 in career earnings. The chestnut mare has made twenty-four lifetime starts in her career, making her one of the more seasoned runners in the field this weekend. The most recent start for the mare came in a mile long allowance race in Florida. She came out of the gate and settled just off the pace of the front runner in second but started to fade back throughout the race. She ultimately crossed the wire in fifth, eight and  half lengths off the pace of the winner. The mare set a speed figure of eighty-one for the race. Her last victory was in September of last year during The Nutcracker (G1) at seven furlongs in New York. Sitting back towards the middle of the pack at the start, she went on to win by two lengths. Since she’s shown the ability to rate she will likely sit more off the pace and settle back into the middle of the field out of the gate early on.

12. Distorted Sunlight – (Distorted Humor x Giant’s Causeway x Seattle Slew) – aalex311 –  Wa Williams – 6/1

Nearing the end of the field for the race, this four-year-old filly has made eighteen career starts, winning nine times so far in her racing career. The most recent start for the Kentucky-bred filly was in Arkansas during the Orange Blossom (G1) over a mile and one sixteenth last month. The filly took out of the gates and went straight to the lead in the race, taking the Grade I race in wire to wire fashion when she won by one and three-quarter lengths with a speed figure of one hundred eleven. Prior to this she also won the BBRS Presents The Slave To Tradition Mile (G2) by a length and three-quarters. The filly is going to be looking to either be the pacesetter on Saturday, or possibly sit off just behind it in second early on.

13. Viper Venom – (Congrats x Gone West x Northern Dancer) - odin – L. Radzinski – 8/1

The final filly to go into the gate on Saturday in the far outside post, the four-year-old brown filly is out of the allowance winning broodmare Lexington North.  With seven wins in eighteen career starts, she is ranked #3 in her division. The filly made her most recent start during a seven furlong allowance race which she won after sitting off the pace early on in fourth. The last graded start for the filly was last year during the Breeders’ Bowl F&M Sprint (G1), in which she finished second. The filly will probably be either towards the middle of the pack or farther off the pace towards the rear of the field at the start on Saturday.

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Apr 112014
 

The highlight race this weekend in Kentucky is the Corkscrew Stakes (G1). The mile and one eighth race, held over the main dirt track, is one of the Derby lock prep races, securing its winner and automatic starting position in this years’ Bluegrass Derby (G1) on the first Saturday in May. A full field of fourteen horses will be going into the race this weekend, looking to secure a spot in the Derby or to prep for being there regardless of a win or not. The purse for the race this weekend, which is open to only three-year-olds is $750,000. The weather on Saturday looks good for the race’s 3:00 pm EST post time and the track should be listed as fast. Let’s take a look at the contenders for this year’s race.

1. Uncle Sirius – (Uncle Mo x Distorted Humor x Sadler’s Wells) - lenny17 – 8/1 – K. Banner

The first colt into the starting gate on Saturday, this local Kentucky-bred colt is graded placed but has yet to win a graded race. With nine lifetime starts, including three wins, the colt has finished off the board just twice in his career. The most recent start for the colt came across the country in California during the Filipe Alou Stakes (G2) at a mile and one sixteenth. Breaking out of the gate and settling far off the pace in tenth early on, the colt starting moving up on the rest of the field midway through the race to eventually cross the wire in third, back off the pace of the winner by three and three-quarter lengths. The bay colt set a speed figure of one hundred three for the race, down a bit from his career best which came in his prior start. This start in Florida was in a listed stakes race, the Magical Merlin Dirt Challenge, over the same distance. The colt also finished third in this race, off the pace by the same margin. The most recent win for the colt came here in Kentucky during a mile and one sixteenth allowance race. Depending on the pace on Saturday, the colt will likely settle back towards the middle of the pack or will be even farther off the pace towards the rear early on.

2. Nightmare Street (JPN) – (Street Sense x Bernardini x Riverman) - caveman2 – W. Kewmwa – 9/1

The first of two Japanese bred horses to be entered in the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) this weekend, the bay colt is also graded placed but has not won a graded race. The colt has made eight starts so far in his career, winning twice and finishing off the board just twice. The most recent start for the colt came in New Mexico during the mile and one eighth The Splendid Fool (G2). Settling back in seventh early on out of the gate, the colt was asked to move midway thorough the race. He wouldn’t progress that much though as he coasted home to a fifth place finish, off the pace by six and three-quarter lengths. The colt set a speed figure of ninety-eight during the race. The colt almost won the Jersey City Classic (G2) in the start prior as he briefly gained the lead going into the stretch but was overtaken to finish second. The colt saw his last victory in June as a two-year-old during a six furlong allowance race. Placed mid-pack out of the gate, the colt started challenging other horses right out of the box and went on to win by half a length. The colt is a versatile runner, but would likely prefer to be just off the pace of a couple of other horses out of the gate on Saturday.

3. Ray Donovan – (Medaglia d’Oro x Vindication x Halo) - fatattack – A. Jolly – 7/1

The first graded winner to go into the gate on Saturday, the striking light gray three-year-old has won half of his eight career starts and finished off the board twice in his career. The most recent for the Kentucky-bred colt was in New Mexico during The Splendid Fool (G2) at a mile and one eighth. Settling a good bit off the pace in ninth early on, the colt starting moving ahead midway through the race and reached the lead in the stretch. He went on to win the race by an impressive four lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred six. His only other graded start, the Pleasure Stakes (G3) as a two-year-old resulted in a fourth place finish. The colt will likely be held off the pace on Saturday, either towards the middle of the pack or even farther back early on.

4. Tio Luis (IRE) – (Galileo x Rahy x Storm Bird) - zyro – R. Zamora – 9/1

Coming off posting a lifetime best speed figure, this Irish-bred bay colt is out of the graded placed broodmare Costa Brava. Himself graded placed, this colt is one of the more seasoned horses in the field with a total of fourteen career starts to date. The colt has impressively won seven times so far in his career. The most recent start for the colt came overseas in Victoria, Australia during The Winter Wonderland (G3) at a mile and one eighth. Settling back in fifth position early on, the colt relaxed and dropped farther off the pace as the race drew on, but was urged back into the pack in the stretch, ultimately going on to finish second, off the pace by two and a quarter lengths and setting that lifetime best speed figure of  one hundred five. His prior race, the mile and one sixteenth listed Danzig With Sal Dirt Route, was the most recent win for the colt, which he achieved after waiting far off the pace early on out of the gate. This weekend the colt will probably be placed off the pace early on, towards the rear of the field away from the gate.

5. Wheldon’s Memory – (Smart Strike x Hard Spun x A.P. Indy) - atw6 – N. Lawton – 8/1

Out of the Grade I winning broodmare Wheldon, this Kentucky-bred colt is also already a graded winner. With nine lifetime starts, the colt has brought home just over $200,000 in career earnings. The most recent start for the colt came in Florida during The Buccaneer Derby (G3) at a mile and one sixteenth. The colt was forwardly placed in that race, being held just off the pace of a few other front runners. He maintained this position for much of the race and crossed the wire in third, four and three-quarter lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of one hundred two, tying, for the third consecutive time, his lifetime best speed figure. His prior start, also in Florida, was in The Good Cow (G3) over a mile. The colt won this race by a quarter of a length, running the race early on in much the same fashion as his laster start in The Buccaneer Derby (G3). The colt could be a pacesetter on Saturday, and if not he will likely be up close to the pace off of a few other horses early on out of the gate.

6. United Slew – (Union Rags x Seattle Slew x Blushing Groom) - moneyballstable – J. Ledwith – 10/1

Winning two starts out of nine lifetime races, the Kentucky-bred colt is graded placed and is going into the second Derby lock race of his career this weekend. The colt’s most recent start came in Florida over a mile and one eighth during the Florida Derby, another Derby lock prep race. The colt was out of the gate late in the race and never recovered from his off the pace position early on, crossing the wire in eleventh, off the pace by eight lengths. The colt sent a speed figure of one hundred. The graded placement for the colt took place overseas in Turkey during the Long Ranch Island Juvenile (G2) at a mile and one sixteenths. He finished second in this race, off the pace by just one and three-quarter lengths. The most recent win was the colts final start as a two-year-old, coming in December across the country in California during an allowance race. The colt has been fairly versatile, though will likely be placed towards the middle of the pack or farther back early on at the start of the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) on Saturday.

7. Thunder Included  – (Include x Thunder Gulch x Nureyev) - tmica – N. Gardner – 10/1

Another horse coming into his second Derby lock prep race this weekend, the three-year-old bay colt has made nine lifetime starts, winning three times in his career. The most recent start for the Kentucky-bred colt came across the country in California during the California Derby, a Derby lock prep race, over a mile and one eighth. Breaking towards the rear of the field out of the gate that weekend, the colt didn’t make a move until pretty late in the stretch and while he made up some ground it wasn’t enough as he came home to finish eighth in the race, off the pace of the winner by six and a half lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred two. January saw the colts most recent win in an allowance race over a mile and one sixteenth here in Kentucky. In this weekends race the colt will likely be sitting towards the middle of the pack or farther off, trailing most of the field early on.

8. Upgraydd – (Harbor The Gold x Raven’s Pass x Vindication) - hotraces – H. Artack – 14/1

A Grade III winner after a total of ten career starts, the bay colt has won four times in his career and is out of the broodmare Her Vindication. The most recent start for the colt came in Oklahoma during a mile long allowance race. Going straight to the lead out of the gate in that race, he would fade later on in the race to finish two lengths back in second, posting  a speed figure of ninety-seven. The most recent graded start for the colt was in his prior start across the country in California during the Movieland Futurity (G1) as a two-year-old. The colt finished fifth in this race. His most recent win, the start prior to tat, was here in Kentucky over a mile during The Cornstalk (G3). He was held back in fifth early on in this race, gained the lead coming into the stretch and won by one and a half lengths. The colt will likely wait a bit off the pace on Saturday, likely in fourth or fifth behind the pacesetter.

9. Jamison Maker (JPN) - (Empire Maker x Big Brown x Street Cry) - james34 – G. Lambert – 11/1

The second of our Japanese-bred horses to make it to the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) this year, the bay colt has made eight career starts and won twice. The three-year-old is out of the listed stakes placed broodmare Package Car. The most recent start for the colt came here in Kentucky last month during The Land’s End (G2) at a mile and one eighth. The colt settled back early just off the pace in fifth and started to challenge other horses just before coming into the stretch. He’d come up a little short at the wire, crossing it in second off the pace by two and a half lengths. The colt set a speed figure of one hundred eight, a lifetime best, for the race. The most recent win for the colt was his final start as a two-year-old during a mile and one sixteenth allowance race in West Virginia. The colt will likely be placed off the pace of the front runners of the race, but not quite far back enough to be running in the middle of  the pack. Look for him around the fourth or fifth position out of the gate.

10. Calloway – (Mineshaft x El Prado x Strawberry Road) - damascus – N. Labreche – 11/1

Lightly raced with just five career starts, this light gray colt has won four of these races. His only non-win of his career was an off the board finish. He is out of the allowance winning broodmare Alix Baby. The most recent start for the local Kentucky-bred colt was in Florida during the mile and one sixteenth Buccaneer Derby (G3). Waiting far off the pace at the rear of the field at the start of the race, the colt began picking off other horses fairly early on in the race. He went on to cross the wire first, leading by two and a half lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred eight, a lifetime best for the colt. Prior to this the colt also won two allowance races and a maiden race. The colt’s only off the board finish was in his maiden debut, which came over seven furlongs on the turf. The colt has usually run towards the middle of the pack, but his most recent race has shown that  he can come from off the pace as well and still do very well in his races, so we could possibly see him at the tail end of the field out of the gate this weekend as well.

11. RG Three – (Lentenor x Alysheba x Affirmed) - dehstable – E. Walsh – 5/1

The early favorite for the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) his year is this three-year-old chestnut colt, local bred here in Kentucky. The colt is out of the Grade II winning broodmare Mars Stallion. He himself is already a Grade II winner and has the most starts of any horse in the field this weekend with a total of fifteen lifetime starts. Of these starts the colt has impressively won ten times. The most recent start for the colt came in Louisiana during the mile and one sixteenth All Saints Derby (G1), a Derby lock prep race. Breaking out of the gate and settling into fifth early on, the colt maintained his position for much of the race and didn’t have any fire when asked, ultimately crossing the wire in sixth, eight lengths off the pace. He posted a speed figure of one hundred one. The most recent win for the colt came in February, still in Louisiana, this time during the mile and one sixteenth Risen Star Stakes (G3). Settling back again towards the middle of the pack, the colt started moving up towards the latter half of the race and eventually went on to win by half a length, setting a speed figure of one hundred five. Recently the colt has been running more towards the middle of the pack, but earlier in his career he was more forwardly placed than he has been of late, so it may be possible to see him in his normal mid-pack position or out closer to the front.

12. Forty Cats Ted (PHI) – (Cat Brulay x Pleasantly Perfect x Forty Niner) - yearoft – J. Drozd – 22/1

Bred in the Philippines, this bay colt has made nine lifetime starts, winning twice and becoming graded placed, though like much of the field he is still looking for his first graded win. He is out of the allowance winning broodmare Perfect Forty. The most recent start for the colt came across the country in California over a mile and one sixteenth during the Felipe Alou Stakes (G2). Settling early in seventh, the colt only lost ground throughout the race, coming  home struggling near the rear of the field, back off the pace by thirteen and a quarter lengths. The colt set a speed figure of ninety-one for the race. Prior to this start the colt also faced a similar finish in The Scam (G3) over a mile and one eighth, also in California. The colt’s most recent victory came last August as a two-year-old during a seven furlong allowance race in Illinois, which was won by one and three-quarter lengths. The colt will likely be placed somewhere from the middle pack range to the rear of the field early on on Saturday.

13. Neurotoxin – (Street Cry x Unbridled x Halo) - shadowclaw – T. Small – 12/1

Lightly raced with just six lifetime starts, the Kentucky-bred bay colt has won four times in his career and is the only horse in the field this weekend to never finish off the board in any of his starts. A listed stakes winner, the colt will be making his graded stakes debut this weekend. The most recent start for the colt came last month in Virginia over a mile and one eighth during the listed stakes race, the Warning Kingdom Dirt Route. Settling off the pace early just behind the front runner in second, the colt briefly fell back to third, but quickly gained it back and went on to win the race by two and a quarter lengths, setting a speed figure of ninety-four in what was just his second listed start of his career. Prior to this race he also won a mile and one eighth allowance race in California. The colt will likely be forwardly placed this weekend, likely in third or fourth ideally, out of the starting gate.

14. Tango Lights – (Medaglia D’oro x A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector) - ninerdust – V. Reed – 22/1

The final horse in the field this weekend, the three-year-old colt is the only horse in the field this weekend to have already won a Grade I race. The light gray colt has made twelve career starts and won four times over that span of time. He is out of the allowance winning broodmare Crazy Eight. The most recent start for the colt came in Florida during the Florida Derby (G1), a Derby lock prep, over nine furlongs. Setting out towards the front of the pack early and staying just off the early pacesetter, the colt would fade throughout the race and ultimately cross the wire last, in fourteenth, back off the pace by twenty-one and a half lengths. The colt set a lackluster speed figure of eighty-five for the race. He faced a similar experience in last years’ Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile (G1). However, prior to that start as a two-year-old, the colt won the mile long Sparkling Wine Stakes (G1) in New York after settling off the pace early on in eighth and waiting until just before the stretch to move up. Earlier in the year he also won The Upper New York Special (G2). Lately the colt has been rating a little farther back than he was as an early two-year-old, so we may see him try to get the sixth position or so off the pacesetter early on.

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lool Oaks

 Posted by at 9:24 pm  Previews
Apr 042014
 

The highlight race this weekend in Kentucky is the lool Oaks (G1) where the three-year-old fillies will take center stage. The race, which is open to only the three-year-old fillies is run over eight and a half furlongs on the dirt. The running of the race this year looks like it is set to go off on a fast track with good weather in the forecast for the 3:00 pm EST post time. A full field of fourteen fillies has drawn into this years race and they all seem to be fairly evenly matched, lets take a closer look at each of the contenders.

1. Holy Bulb (AUS) - (Street Cry x Storm Cat x Sir Ivor) - manofsteel – A. Arthur – 5/1

The first filly to go into the starting gate on Saturday, the Australian-bred filly is only one of two horses in the field this weekend to have already won a Grade I race. Making eleven career starts so far, the filly has achieved career earnings of $802,150. Winning five times in her career, the bay filly has finished off the board four times in her career. The filly is out of the broodmare Two Nuns And A Dog, she is also ranked number five in her dirt router division. The most recent start for the filly came in Louisiana during the Louisiana Oaks (G2) over eight and a half furlongs. Settling into second out of the gate early on, the filly held this position for most of the race but she started to fade in the stretch and crossed the wire just in the money in fifth, off the pace of the winner by one and three-quarter lengths and setting a speed figure of one hundred three. Prior to this start the filly saw a win in Vermont during the Equinics – Sim Sponsors (G1) at a mile. The filly could be on the lead out of the gate or just off the pace, probably back no farther than fourth or so out of the gate.

2. Your In My Space – (Broken Vow x A.P. Indy x Forty Niner) - boble17 – T. Kelly – 12/1

With seven lifetime starts to date, the local Kentucky-bred filly will be making her graded stakes debut this weekend. Out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Bospace, the bay filly is a listed stakes winner herself who is set to seek out her first graded win. The most recent start for the filly came here in Kentucky during the Granny Exalted Dirt Filly Mile, a listed stakes race. Settling just off the pace of a few front runners in fourth, the filly started to make her move midway through the race but was never able to get the lead as she crossed the wire to finish in second, two lengths off the pace. She set a speed figure of ninety-nine. The most recent win for the filly was last December over the mile and one sixteenth listed stakes, the Broad Mecke Dirt  Juvenile Fillies. The filly won this race in wire to wire fashion. The filly, though capable of setting the pace, is more likely to settle back a few horses back away from the front runners, or possibly even farther back towards the middle of the field.

3. Evil Reflections - (Tiznow x Curlin x Montjeu) - fairhaven – J. Piotrowski – 8/1

Another local Kentucky-bred, the light grey filly is lightly raced with eight career starts and has already won a graded race, though she is still looking for her first Grade I win. The filly has won half of her eight starts and has never finished worse than third so far in her career. She is out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Full Of Wrath. The most recent start for the filly came overseas in the United Arab Emirates during The Dubai 1000 Guineas (G3) over a mile last February. Breaking out of the gate and settling back in sixth in the twelve horse field, she was urged forward to challenge towards the middle of the race. She would go on to win the race by two lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred three, in what was her graded stakes debut race. The filly is a versatile runner and has run on the lead as well as come from behind in past races, so her early position on Saturday will likely be dictated on the pace.

4. Blues King (JPN) - (King Kamehameha x Dynaformer x Giant’s Causeway) - super19 – O. A. Haak – 10/1

The Japanese-bred bay filly is out of the graded placed broodmare Blues In The Nite. She herself is a listed stakes winner and will be making her graded stakes debut this weekend. Making eleven lifetime starts to date, the bay filly has won five times in her career and finished off the board only three times. The most recent start for the filly came in Vermont over a mile in the the listed Seattle Dixie Dirt Filly Mile. Early on the filly settled in third out of the gate and would make up some ground late in the stretch to cross the wire in second, setting a speed figure of  one hundred after finishing two and three-quarter lengths off the pace. November was the fillies most recent win, which also came in Vermont. This time the race came over a mile on a sloppy course, moved from the original turf track over to the dirt due to the track conditions. Despite the surface change, the filly won the Giant Lark Turf Juvenile Stakes by one and three-quarter lengths with a speed figure of eighty six. This weekend the filly will likely be placed mid-pack or just off the pace of a few front runners early on.

5. Outback Americium – (Street Cry x Storm Cat x Affirmed) – outback2 – A. Scott – 5/1

The second of three fillies in the race this weekend by Street Cry, the Kentucky-bred is lightly raced with just six lifetime starts. The filly has never finished worse than second in her career and is a listed stakes winner who will be making her graded stakes debut this weekend. The most recent start for the filly came over a mile in the Stars Of Libra Dirt Filly Challenge. Breaking out of the gate and settling just off the pace of the leader in second, the filly took the lead midway through the race and went on to win by two lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred four. The filly also won her prior start in the mile long Fame Or Fortune Dirt Filly Mile, another listed stakes race. The filly will likely want to sit just off the pace of a few front-running horses early on, probably back in third or fourth early on.

6. Im A Sore Loser (AUS) – (Redoute’s Choicce (AUS) x Forty Niner x Storm Cat) – gunners4 -  E. Siefert – 7/1

Next into the gate, this Australian-bred filly has made nine lifetime starts, including of which six have resulted in wins. The most recent start for the filly came in the Seattle Dixie Dirt Filly Mile, a listed stakes race in Vermont. The filly won this race in wire to wire fashion by two and three-quarter lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred four. Prior to this race the filly made her graded stakes debut in the Equinics – Editors (G3) over six furlongs, also in Vermont. The filly was placed much farther off the pace early on in this race, settling in tenth out of the gate. Midway through the race she was urged to make her move and ultimately crossed the wire in the money in fourth, off the pace of the winner by one and three-quarter lengths. Like many of the other fillies in the race this weekend, she is going to want to sit off the pace of a few other fillies out in front.

7. Cultivated – (Malibu Moon x Storm Cat x Unbridled) – mtk2013 – M. Staples – 15/1

Midway through the field, the local Kentucky-bred filly is out of the broodmare Checkered Demon. With nine lifetime starts in her career, the bay filly has won three times and is listed stakes placed, but has not won a listed or graded stakes race. The most recent start for the filly came in Louisiana during the Louisiana Oaks (G2) over a mile and one sixteenth. Towards the rear of the field early on out of the gate in ninth, the filly started to drop farther back off the pace midway through the race and eventually crossed the wire eight and three-quarter lengths off the pace, setting a speed figure of ninety-five. She was second in her first and only listed stakes race in the Goldenbridled Dirt Filly Route over a mile and three sixteenths in Ontario, Canada. Her last win was prior to this race in a mile long allowance race in Delaware. Most of her races have been run with the filly being held off the pace from a few front runners, but recently the filly has been being held farther off the pace early on.

8. Pleasure Trip (SAF) – (Trippi x Unbridled’s Song x Affirmed) - agk04 – A. Kelly – 27/1

The longest shot on the board for the lool Oaks (G1) this weekend, the three-year-old roan filly was foaled in South Africa, out of the allowance winning broodmare Song Affirmed. The filly has made nine career starts, winning four of her races. She is ranked thirteen in her dirt sprinting division and is a Grade II winner, though she has yet to even place on the board in a Grade I race despite two attempts prior to her start here in the lool Oaks (G1). The most recent start for the filly came in Florida during The Girl Up Front (G2) over seven furlongs. Breaking out of the gate and going straight to the back of the field and setting into fourth early on, she slowly started to advance midway through the race but only managed to cross the wire in tenth, five and three-quarter lengths off the pace of the winner and setting a speed figure of ninety-three. Her last win was in Delaware in her prior start during a six and a half furlong allowance race over a good turf track. Closer to the pace in this race early on, she went on to win by one and a half lengths. Her Grade II win came as a two-year-old overseas in the UAE during the Red Fish Blue Fish Stakes (G2), where she ran far off the pace early on. This weekend the filly will probably be the last out of the gate and will be trailing the rest of the field early on, waiting for the other fillies out front to start to tire before making her move to the front.

9. Redoute’s Causeway (AUS) – (Redoute’s Choice x Dubawi (IRE) x Giant’s Causeway) - hewett – J. Seldon – 12/1

The final of three Australian-bred fillies in the race and the second filly in the race sired by Redoute’s Choice, the three-year-old bay filly is out of the broodmare Jumeirah Beach. The filly has made ten lifetime starts, won four times and is graded placed in three graded attempts. She will continue to look for her first graded win this weekend in the lool Oaks (G1). The most recent start for the filly was across the country in California during the Los Vinaigrette Stakes (G1) over a mile on the dirt. Going to the lead early on out of the gate, the filly was overtaken in the stretch and finished second, a length off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-nine. Her last win came as a two-year-old in November during the listed GR Simsters Juvy Fillies Dirt, which she won in wire to wire fashion. She too is going to want to be forwardly placed this weekend, possibly as the pacesetter, and if not just a few positions off the pace from it.

10. Impure Thoughts (ENG) – (Dansili (GB) x Storm Cat x Fappiano) - battlers – K. Braun – 16/1

Foaled in England out of the stakes winning broodmare Storm In A Dancer, the three-year-old bay filly is too an accomplished listed stakes winner, attempting the second graded start of her career this weekend in the lool Oaks (G1). With five wins in nine career starts and only finishing off the board once in her career, the filly has brought home career earnings of $167,295. The most recent start for the filly came in Vermont during the Equinics – Young Guns (G1) at nine furlongs,  in what was the graded stakes debut for the filly. Settling just off the pace in third out of the gate, the filly started to drop back midway through the race and by the time she crossed the wire she was in tenth, ten lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-two. Prior to this race the filly had her most recent win, which came overseas in Hong Kong during the Tarbashs Dirt Juvenile Fillies as a two-year-old in December. The filly won the race in wire to wire fashion. The filly could be another potential pacesetter for Saturday, though if she can’t get the lead she will probably be in the mad scramble of other fillies that will be wanting to sit right off that pace.

11. Stormy Lyric – (Unbridled’s Song x Storm Cat x Danzig) - gcphantom3 – D. Fendlay Jr. – 5/1

Working our way towards the latter half of the field now, the local Kentucky-bred light gray filly is out of the listed stakes winning broodmare Magpies Cat. The filly has made seven career starts, winning five times and has never finished worse than second in her carer. She is a Grade III winner, placed in Grade II and will be making her first Grade I appearance this weekend in the lool Oaks (G1). The most recent start for the filly came in the Louisiana Oaks (G2) over a mile and one sixteenth. The filly settled back towards the rear of the field in tenth early on out of the gate and was urged to move forward midway though the race. She would cross the wire in second, only a head off of the leader at the wire. She set a speed figure of one hundred five. Her prior race was her most recent victory, which came over a mile in Florida during the Davola Dane South (G3). Usually running mid-pack in her races, the filly also showed she could run well as a late closer in her most recent start, which could serve her well in the race this weekend with all the other fillies that are going to want to be up towards the front of the pack.

12. Meeting Your Maker (JPN) - (Empire Maker x Gone West x Deputy Minister) - mtkplaz2 – L. Isreal – 15/1

This Japanese-bred filly is out of the allowance winning broodmare Indiciative and has won half of her eight career starts. A listed stakes winner of $75,860 in career earnings, the filly will be making her second attempt at winning a graded stakes this weekend. The most recent start for the bay filly came in Vermont during the Equinics – Young Guns (G1) over nine furlongs. Breaking out of the gate and settling into fifth, the filly would fade back in the stretch to cross the wire in ninth, seven and three-quarter lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-five in her graded stakes debut. The most recent win for the filly came in her prior start during a nine furlong allowance race in Kansas, where she was second out of the gate but quickly took the lead to win by three and one-quarter lengths. This was the tail end of a three consecutive race winning streak including her victory in the eight and a half furlong listed English Bark Dirt Juvenile Fillies as a two-year-old in December. Usually just off the pace of a few front runners or in the middle of the pack, the filly will probably run the latter on Saturday, or may possibly find herself pushed back farther off the pace than what she is used to.

13. Shine On Brightly – (Street Cry x Danzig x Storm Cat) - whirlwind – C. Winter – 16/1

The second of only two Grade I winners to make it into the lool Oaks (G1), this Kentucky-bred filly is out of the Grade III winning broodmare Midnite Kat. In ten lifetime starts the three-year-old bay filly has won three times and is ranked ninth in her dirt routing division. The most recent start for the filly came in British Columbia, Canada during the Voleur Du Nord Dirt Filly Route, a listed stakes race over a mile of one sixteenth. Settling into ninth out of the gate early on, the filly started gaining ground towards the middle of the race and ultimately crossed the wire in the fifth, nine and a half lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety-two. The most recent win for the filly was here in Kentucky during October of last year during her two-year-old season in The Darley (G1) over a mile and one sixteenth. Closer to the pace in this race at sixth out of the gate, the filly started picking off other contenders early on and won the race by three-quarters of a length. The bay filly was also an off the board finisher in last years’ Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly (G1). The filly will probably be one of the last out of the gate in the lool Oaks (G1) this weekend, running as a closer to challenge the tiring fillies up front later on in the race.

14. Pleasant Squall – (Pleasantly Perfect x Summer Squall x Fusaichi Pegasus) - chesapeake  - S. S. Ledwith – 20/1

In the far outside post, the last of our contenders in the race this weekend, the three-year-old bay filly has made ten career starts, winning four of these starts. The Kentucky-bred filly is a Grade II winner and will be making her second Grade I start of her career this weekend. The most recent start for the filly was in Florida during The Miss Bonnie (G2) over a mile and one eighth on the dirt. The filly went right to the lead early on in the race but began to fade midway through the race and would finish last in fourteenth, fifteen and a half lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of eighty-nine. The most recent win for the filly was last November in her two-year-old season during the Golden Red Stakes (G2) at a mile and one sixteenth. She settled just off the pace in third early on, took the lead in the middle of the race and went on to win by a quarter of a length. The fillies only Grade I start to date was across the country in California during the Movieland Starlet (G1) where she finished tenth. She could attempt to be a pacesetter early on in the race, and if not she will be another contender in the mix to try to get one of the positions just off the pace of that front runner.

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