Big Race Preview 2517
By- Knightmare
Not only do we have a couple of great classic races this week but Allied Assault and Turning Japanese are racing. Too many great races to choose from.
Race: 2517.0415 The New Yorker - Grade I - $1,000,000 Track: New York Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old Distance: A mile and one half on the Dirt
Anticosti did not train well to this race so he has skipped this race making Middle Jewel winner Fly For Buda the favorite. Fly For Buda's won three of his last four. His one non win was the Bluegrass where he finished behind Anticosti. His stalking style will be difficult for his opponents to over come.
New comer Squal Me Halo comes off a terrific wire to wire win in the grade I Chicago Derby last time out. He was run down by Fly For Buda before that race in the California Derby. His speed will mean an honest pace. Orca has not faired well in the first two legs of the triple. Last out he was either pulled off the pace on purpose or flat missed the start. I actually like him as a surprise horse here if he does not get caught up in a duel up front.
Winning Moves (IRE) ran a good race to get into third in the Middle Jewel. The extra distance could do him some good. Sensationalize got a late start for the Bluegrass Derby trail. He ran some big races closing very well against some of the top three year olds. He might be a little fresher than most in here and the distance seems to suit him best.
Race: 2517.3414 Derby de English - Grade I - $1,000,000 Track: Epsom Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf
Despite what the morning line odds tell you Horseshoe Bay is the one to beat. Back to back grade I wins at this distance already. His speed figures may appear a bit slow but he has not had to run fast to win by four lengths in each of his last two races. He has a strong closing kick and will be closing fast.
Woette’s Delight (IRE) is the morning line favorite. He has competed well in each of his races with one pretty solid try at a longer distance. He is a closer type that has not won in a while. Jupiter’s Moon (IRE) has all the right stuff. He bred for the distance and a grade II at a longer distance. He finished second behind Horseshoe Bay two races ago and prepped for this race with a nice front running win. He should have the early jump on the closer.
Old and Poor (IRE) set the pace last out and was run down by Horseshoe Bay. He will likely have more company on the lead here. C’mon (GB) has solid long distance breeding and a deep closing style. The wild card is the surprise entry of Valamar. Valamar could have the best trip of the bunch behind the speed and ahead of the closers. The only question is the distance.
Race: 2517.0414 Chestnut Stakes - Grade I - $500,000 Track: New York Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old Distance: A mile and three eighths on the Dirt
Corzaffair (IRE) was third in the Bluegrass Oaks and an ok fifth in the Middle Jewel Oaks. She is the heavy favorite here. Her speed will be tough to match but going this distance could make her vulnerable. God’sFury seems like a runner who should enjoy the distance. She fourth in the Bluegrass Oaks and has a good running style.
Niptuck ran very well in the spring but seemed flat last time out in the Bluegrass Oaks. If she can stay relatively close to the early pace she might have a chance of closing well. K’s Araku is a front running filly who ran in the GSR Oaks last time out. She has a ton of speed and should keep the favorite honest.
Race: 2517.3415 Oaks de English - Grade I - $500,000 Track: Epsom Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf
La Pata Daisy is one of the co favorites. She is already accomplished at the longer distances. She won the grade I Sydney Oaks at this distance two races back and is the runner to beat. Mumbai is fresh off her 1000 Guineas win at a mile and stretches out for the first time. She has a great turf record and the breeding to get the distance so you must respect her.
Mockingbird was second last out in the grade I Adelaide Oaks at this distance. That alone makes her one of the contenders. She is a deep closer so look for her late. Katima won the grade II Need for Green last out at a similar distance. If she continues to improve she is a horse to watch.
Race: 2517.5315 West Point Thoroughbreds Distaff Turf- Grade I - $500,000 Track: Victoria Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Turf
Another grade I race for three year old fillies on the turf. Our favorite has a touch of seconditis. Bulletfly’s Honor has finished second five times in nine starts including three of her last four. She could break through here with her stalking running style. Urko’s Pirate (IRE) is a good runner at this distance. She stepped up in distance last time out and did not fare so well. Now she is back to a better distance and the little step up may help her here.
Lost My Keys closed well last time out in the grade III Filly Turf Bonanza. She finished third in that race and with a little improvement she could win this. Phantom Heart (AUS) has some blazing speed. If she can carry that speed look out.
Race: 2517.0915 Bumblebee Classic - Grade I - $500,000 Track: New Jersey Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up Distance: One mile on the Dirt
Buck the System is one fast filly. She is the favorite here and has run some huge races in the past. She ran a 122 speed figure a few races back. Her last race was a little off but if she picks it back up she will be tough to beat. Glass Heart has been consistently good at this distance hitting the boarding each of her last five with two wins.
Vegas has been running at a distance not really her best lately. She has done well but this one mile is her favorite. She has two wins in her last four and is fast enough to keep up with the top two. Gingivitis may be the speed of the speed with the ability to go wire to wire. Homecoming Dance can flash speed but is a top notch stalker capable of winning this race.
Race: 2517.0413 NY Island Cap - Grade I - $500,000 Track: New York Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf
Militant will have his hands full in this race. Militant is fresh off a win in the grade I Keg of Guinness stakes at this distance. He is a front runner and will have one hell of closer trying to run him down. Turning Japanese comes off a bit of a layoff for this race. She has competed well against the boys her whole career and if she fires in this first race back get ready to watch one hell of a closing move.
Bright Sunset has been running very well in listed company lately. Takes a big step up in class and if he can run as fast as he has been he could be a player. Sadler Mambo has been running pretty well here lately. He stretches out a bit here but he can handle the extra distance.
Race: The Canada Gold Rush Stakes - Grade I - $500,000 Track: Ontario Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf
Allied Assault lines up to add another grade I victory to his storied career. He is even money and fresh off a grade I victory last time out. He will be very tough to beat. Hey Zeus could pose the biggest challenge to Allied Assault. He is a deep closer as well and having to out close Allied Assault is near impossible.
Dancin in Seattle is the speed of the race and that makes him a bit of a danger. He should stalk or set the early pace but has a very tough task in holding off the favorite. Seat Back Forward ran a huge one several back at a little farther distance. A repeat of the puts him in contention.
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