Unlucky 13 go post ward on Saturday attempting to take home graded stakes points, in route on the Bluegrass Derby Trail. Dailyracin sends out the morning line favorite Tsunami Song, but this field is very close in talent. The co-long shots are both sons of Midnight Lute and are being priced at a modest 14-1, Quartertotwelve and Portrayal. With a great field we will get right to breaking down each ones strengths and chances.
#1- Portrayal- 14/1: UFO Testing Center ships in this strong son of Midnight Lute. Undefeated at two turns, coming off a runaway stakes victory, and improving figs makes this colt a prime player despite a gracious morning line. Only angle of concern is low percentage jockey and a rail post. Huge step in class is a bit concerning, but has never finished worse than place money. A must consider at double digit odds
#2- Tsunami Song- 9/2: Worldwide gets to send out the post time favorite. Son of Storming Atlantic has the back end to relish the longer distances of the Triple Crown trail (Unbridledís Song X Herbager). †ĎSong is back at the scene of his worst racing performance, a dull 8th place in the G1 Movieland. Best effort was on a good track and is such a superior race Iím not sure this colt can duplicate on a fast track. Hasnít hit the board in a few graded races and a short price make this colt a beatable favorite.
#3- Lookin at Hotrod- 10/1: Tazdevilís star is one of a pair of colts by Lookin at Lucky. Hotrod has been ultra-game in all his efforts, but one. A disappointing 15th in the Lever Sparky sent this one back to two turns in the Risen Star. After a bold closing run landed him in the winnerís circle Tazdevil is shipping to the west coast in an attempt to capture his second derby prep in a row. Improving colt that is certainly stronger the longer the races go. Good odds and with continued improvement (third effort at a route) this one will be tough to hold off as the run down the lane.
#4- Lookin Again- 11/1: M&Jís colt is coming off the fastest last race. An impressive score in the g2 Swale earned this runner a second attempt around two turns. First effort was in the Delta Jackpot where he ran a backwards second to last. I canít back this one with such a bad effort over the mile and sixteenth distance. Speed, Class, Breeding, and recent form all suggest he fits, but you canít pick them all and I want to see an improved route run before I endorse.
#5- †Quartertotwelve- 14/1: Uncoupled entry to morning line favorite. The second of two sons of Midnight Lute is a sprinter asking to route for the first time. One would think the tactics would be to send this one from the get go to set up a solid pace that might benefit #2.† Quarter is bred to be a sprinter and looked a little tired running a big race in the 7f San Vincente. Classy colt that should have a bright future, but is being asked to do a lot.
#6- Street Dropout- 9/1: Lgbost is brings in this New Zeland shipper to try the American dirt for the first time. Lemon Drop Kid sired colt has yet to win anything greater than a listed turf sprint. However after couple huge seconds at 10f and greater means this guy has earned the right for a derby trail stop. Price is a little short for me to back with no dirt form, but distance will not be a problem.
#7- Arturo Fuente- 8/1: Super enters this tall son of Montjeu (17 Ĺ hands). †Arturo has run three times at this distance improving with each effort. With any additional improvement over a strong third in the Risen Star would make this colt a top contender. Only major knocks is another with only an alw win and poor jock. Those two things lead me to think Fuente wonít be at the top of his game.† Would like to see sharp 5f work to prove fitness, but since super doesnít publish works we will have to just take a guess.
#8- Last Stop- 12/1: adschus06 sends out the 21st ranked son of Tiznow. Very experienced colt has not had a lot of success routing, 5 races, and 1 second. Four of those five efforts have been against graded. Top lifetime speed last time after shortening up to a flat mile. Dubai 2000 guineas was fast, but not as impressive as it looks at first glance, after a rail saving trip, this colt had little acceleration in the stretch, passing only tired rivals to trot home a respectful 4th. Top jock Gosset will only improve his chances, but with as many chances as this one has been given I would have liked to see a breakthrough effort prior to this start.
#9- Onenationundergod- 7/1: Onenation is the second choledawg homebred to be entered in this grade 2 event. This colt wasnít entered into yearling auction, but kept by the home stable and has rewarded Choledawg with back to back impressive alw wins. Open length winner is beautifully bred son of Dynaformer out of a Distorted Humor mare. He has been very professional at three disposing of both fields with ease. Only knock I can find is a lack of stakes success, but looks primed for a big effort.
#10- Boís Bomber- 13/1: This Turkish bred colt is getting saddled by bobangod. Two time stakes winning sprinter has failed twice against graded. Both efforts ended up in backing up badly down the lane, one of which was in the North Fork on this same surface. Bred to be a sprinter, and effort at 7f in his last race doesnít inspire confidence stepping back up to graded and stretching out. This colt would in fact be Boís Bomber on the tote board with a winning effort.
#11- Deputy Jelly- 10/1: Kyjelly sends out this seasoned son of Kittenís Joy. Deputy was well beaten against some of these same foes in the Movieland last winter. This colt would need a major step up to compete in here. Is coming off an improved closing effort last time out as a short priced favorite but still finished 2 ĺ behind in alw field. Huge step up and needs lifetime best to run in top half of this field.
#12- Sarcastic Glance- 7/1: Dixiedotco ships in this graded stakes winning son of Justenuffhumor. Speedy winner of four of his last five should be the pace setter in here. Staples is one of the best local jocks to control speed and this surface has played towards a front end bias. This colt should be able to clear from the outside post and only has to worry about stretching out sprinter and possible rabbit #5. Second effort of the year and top trainer makes Glance a very tough foe. Most logical winner
#13- Archangelís Blade- 12/1: Goody is sending out this sprinter in hopes of collecting some graded points and cash. Trainer feels this colt should be a great fit at the mile and sixteenth. This son of First Samurai is coming off a breakthrough second in the Saint Vincent a few weeks back. Ultra game colt has never lost by more than two lengths. He was finishing strong at in both efforts at 7f and has every right to move forward again. Outside post is a concern, but might be able to tuck in right behind Glance and Tweleve. This colts best chance will be to repeat a stalking effort. Very playable
I like playing for a price and we should see a solid pace from the outside runners. Iím going to pick an upset and take the longest shot on the board #1 Portrayal. Colt has yet to be tested routing, ground saving trip, and excellent pace stalking style leads this one to be rolling down the stretch to catch #12 Sarcastic Glance who holds on for second, and a very even run by #13 Archangelís Blade scores him a third.
Good luck on race day to all entries.