Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic

Grade I
A mile and one half
Firm Turf
$5,000,000

PP        Horse ID          Horse                                      Owner             Jockey             Odds

1             178737 EL SKUNKBERTO SLEW(KY)               skunkbred3          H Eisen                11/1      

2             88291    UPS AND DOWNSIZE(KY)                  mharris                M Perez                               12/1      

3             153351 DEATH BY LAUGHING(KY)               lenny11                               Z Edwards            25/1      

4             162039 TITLE DEFENSE(KY)                            futurestar             Q Cassell               9/1        

5             179369 SKUNKJEUREYEV(IRE)                        beenskunkd         C Wiedner            10/1      

6             52979    SIGNS OF CHANGE(KY)                     eml1                     S L Ledwith           9/1        

7             21511    CROSSWINDS(IRE)                             preakness             M Kidder              11/1      

8             177049 BOGOESAWAY(AUS)                         bobrba1               G Harmon            17/1      

9             189180 EL PRESIDENTE(ENG)                         dazzler                  A Witter               13/1      

10           189282 KING TACHYON(JPN)                         musse                   T Miller                9/2        

11           53638    SEVENTH SENSE(IRE)                         rapt                       G Ayso                  9/1        

12           178615 GALILAYO(IRE)                                   goldsmith             S Hale                   20/1      

13           62369    YAK(AUS)                                            dreaming              H Harzheim          9/1        

14           23263    K'S STAGFLATION(KY)                       supreme               P Chute                7/1      

Welcome to what is effectively the Turf Derby for older horses here in Dubai. A full field for the 12f trip, so lets go through them one by one-

EL SKUNKBERTO SLEW(KY) (EL PRADO(IRE) x ROBERTO x SEATTLE SLEW)

Plenty of experience and graded runs here, with a host of 100+ speed figures. However has been dropped down to stakes and allowance company recently with one win at each type. Clearly a decent benchmark and will run his race. Expect another sp of around 105 and a good top 6 finish but I’d be surprised if there weren’t two or three too good here.

UPS AND DOWNSIZE(KY) (KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II x KRIS S.)

A lot less experience here with only two graded runs but those included a Grade III win over todays trip with a 117 sp.  Ran over a furlong shorter his last two runs and was doing his best work at the finish in both. Pretty impressive pedigree and I expect him to be closing like a train in the final quarter. The 12/1 on the morning line looks a steal and I think he’s nailed on for a top three.

DEATH BY LAUGHING(KY) (A.P. INDY x PIVOTAL(GB) x SADLER'S WELLS)

A lot of graded runs for one with not much experience, including a win over todays trip and class with a 110 sp. His last three runs have been a disaster, with what I presume was an injury three runs back. The last two have been over shorter trips but it still leaves him a lot to find, hence the huge price. Unless he bounces back in a big way will be at the rear today.

TITLE DEFENSE(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT)

The most experienced in the field and a host of graded wins to go with it.  Not been up to his best the last few times though and had to drop down to allowance level to get a win latest. Even though it was with a decent sp of 108, that’s not going to be enough here. Looks as though this grade might be a bit much now and I can’t see him going better than his sitting position in  the middle of the field.

SKUNKJEUREYEV(IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x NUREYEV x MILL REEF)

Another with plenty of graded runs, including a 117 sp three runs back over this trip. However his last two runs, especially the last have been disappointing. Granted the last was over 14f but the one before was an ordinary stakes which he should have won at a canter. Don’t quite know what to make of him, has the class but not the recent form. On balance I would oppose him today but would not be surprised should he make the top three.

SIGNS OF CHANGE(KY) (DYNAFORMER x STORM CAT x ALYDAR)

Yet another with tons of experience but another who has not been at his best recently. Finished no better than seventh in his last two graded runs and only fourth is an ordinary stakes last time out. Does this mean he’s no longer capable of the 117 and 118 sp’s of several  runs back or is he just out of form? Unfortunately I think it looks like the latter and in that case he will be among the large ruck in midfield today.

CROSSWINDS(IRE) (HURRICANE RUN (IRE) x GREEN DESERT x SEEKING THE GOLD)

Plenty of promise in this one- until that last run.  Was mixing graded races with ordinary stakes and has won at this level. That last run was poor though, even if it was over too short a distance. Best recent run Came with some give in the ground and he won’t get that today. Capable of reaching the money at his best but too inconsistent.

BOGOESAWAY(AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x KINGMAMBO x SADLER'S WELLS)

Plenty of runs at this level but hasn’t looked graded class in his last seven runs. Another with an awful last run, a 92 in an allowance does not translate into a win in a Grade I. Even at his best would struggle to make the top five here and after that last run will be vying for last place.

EL PRESIDENTE(ENG) (CACIQUE (IRE) x MINESHAFT x SHIRLEY HEIGHTS(GB))

Another with plenty of experience who has been running more on dirt. It has been five races since his last graded run too and with a best sp of 110 in those five runs coming last time out in a stakes over 14f, he looks to be up against it here. It would be a surprise if 110 was enough to reach the frame and I can’t see him even reacing that mark. Another who will be mired in the midfield ruck at the finish.

KING TACHYON(JPN) (KING KAMEHAMEHA(JPN) x AGNES TACHYON (JPN) x NORTHFIELDS)

An interesting one here. Again plenty of runs but all his latest have been at graded level and include three wins. Several sp around 115 or better too and a good second over todays trip in a grade I latest with a 114sp. Another similar run should see him reach the frame here too and as the only pace horse in the field he must have a chance of stealing it from the front. Should be in the top three.

SEVENTH SENSE(IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II)

He was looking like an improving horse with several good graded runs until his latest. Ran a 100 over half a furlong shorter but that was only in an ordinary stakes race and another 100 here would put him near the back. Still with few enough runs for that to be a blip, he could easily be in the money if back to his best.

GALILAYO(IRE) (GALILEO (IRE) x DIESIS(GB) x COZZENE)

Again plenty of experience but again hasn’t run well at this level for some time. Indeed woth for sp in the 90’s in his last six and the other two being just over the 100 it’s going to take a miracle for him to get out of the last two here. The 20/1 on the morning line isn’t big enough.

YAK(AUS) (REDOUTE'S CHOICE (AUS) x MONTJEU (IRE) x KINGMAMBO)

Winner of half of his races and placed in all but three, he hasn’t run well at this level. Hass some decent grade III form but has not been able to step up on that. The two exceptions being five and six races ago when he ran two 117’s for a first and second. If back to that level he could win this but the last few runs have been disappointing , although he has been moving around in trip. On balance won’t make the frame but clearly has the talent.

 K'S STAGFLATION(KY) (SMART STRIKE x DANEHILL x SADLER'S WELLS)

Yet another with loads of experience, he has been alternating 111 sp’s with 105 sp’s with one exception four runs back when he ran a 115 in a grade II over todays trip. He is due for a 111 and that will see him in the top four here. Another 115 might even be enough to win but that looks like a blip and the fourth place is more likely as long as his last run of a 103 was also a blip.

Overall a hard race to call with a lot of experienced horses running at a similar level. However I’m going for UPS AND DOWNSIZE to beat KING TACHYON and SEVENTH SENSE in that order. The winner will be closing like a train on the second who will try to pinch it from the front. Will he get there in time ?