Article written by Irisharse.
CA, Race ID 3749.0109 : Breeders Bowl Juvenile Grade I All horses, 2 years old, A mile and one sixteenth on the Fast Dirt Course, Purse : $2,000,000
California: This years renewal of the Breeders Bowl Juvenile has some of the best the division has to offer. No complaints of who didn't get into field with 9 graded winners and 13 stakes winners and the lone non-stakes winner is grade 2 placed. Some of the top Sim stables and trainers are represented along with a few up and comers. Co-favorites in the morning line at 7-1 are the undefeated DISGUISED REGRET who puts his 4 race win streak on the line and the once beaten OSOTOGARI who has 3 Grade 3 wins to his credit but drew the outside post for the race. Third choice at 8-1 is the Grade 1 winning BRIDLED DANCER. After I do a rundown on each horse I will be using a very old friends handicapping systems to break down the race at each call and hopefully correctly pick the winner. This system was just something he made up one day at Hialeah park and it snagged several winners out of nowhere for no apparent reason.
1- NEVER QUIT(IRE) 2 YR OLD COLT BY REFUSE TO BEND-DIESIS-STORM CAT
stable:wistful3 trainer: topicount
Never Quit is the first foal of game dam Scrimtarra who was a graded winner herself and her son seems to be taking over for where mom left off. A winner of 4 of 6 starts and never off the board, he has earned $356k plus while winning the Dell Computer Futurity-G2 and the Midsoil Stakes-G3. He was a fast closing 2nd beaten just a short head in the End Of The Line Futurity-G2in his only try around two turns which should set him up perfectly for this race. Jockey D.Evans with a win precentage of 28% gets the call at 9-1.
2- SISSON'S SUNDAY(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY ANY GIVEN SUNDAY-NORTHERN DANCER-ROBERTO
stable:levers trainer:binzaman
Sisson's Sunday is a scratch homebred who is proving to be well worth the effort. Winner of the The Summer Count Memorial-St and The Ashbury Stakes-St in his last two tries seems to be coming to his best form at the right time of year. A winner of 3 of 6 lifetime starts and $127k plus in earnings so far. Closes from last or near last in all his races, he might me a slave to the pace if it didn't look like there are several runners here who will be racing with eyeballs popping out for the early lead. Local rider M.Dorsey has surprised all the big time agents by sliding into this spot for his biggest mount ever at 12-1 odds.
3- DISGUISED REGRET(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY AWESOME AGAIN-UNBRIDLED-ALYDAR
stable: lenny2 trainer: the evil empire
Disguised Regret was another scratch homebred who is undefeated in his first 4 races, each race was an improvement over the next and we cornered his trainer for a quote and he said,” I'll be happy with a check in this race our real goal is next spring in Kentucky”.4 for 4 and $155k in earnings while winning The Orange Grove-St and The One Minstrel Memorial-Stk in his two tries at a mile. His midpack running style will be in the hands of D.Givens who is winning at a 28% clip this year and jumped off the one horse to ride this one at 7-1.
4- DUKE OF NORMANDY(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY BLUEGRASS CAT-GREEN DESERT-MR PROSPECTOR
stable:lupo34 trainer :waremblem5
Duke Of Normandy is the 6th foal of game dam Phat Prospector, this is her 3rd stakes winner from those to race which is some feat and some find for an open breeding mare. His trainer also was quoted as saying he has bigger plans for “The Duke” next spring but this is his first BB Juvenile Dirt starter and he'd sure like to win it. A winner of 3 of his 5 lifetime starts and placed in his other 2 starts and has earned $134k plus while winning The Brick Hit Stakes-St and The Their Book(Ire)Memorial-St both at todays distance of 8.5 furlongs. N. Lawton takes the reigns at 9-1. Quick trivia: Can anyone tell me who is the current Duke of Normandy?
5- MISTY WHISPER(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY LATENT HEAT-MISWAKI-DANZIG
stable:vertain6 trainer: mano
Misty Whisper is the 5th foal of game dam Misty Woodbine, all five are winners but this is her biggest success so far in the breeding shed. By freshman sire Latent Heat, he tops his earning list with $171k plus in earnings and was his first graded winner when he came home first in the Vermont BB Juvenile-G2. Prepped for this with a fast closing 3rd place finish in the G2-Darling Squash Futurity. Will be ridden my the talented T. Loesch who brings them home at 28%, he is 13-1 in the morning line.
6- INCREDIBLE LAW(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY LAWYER RON-STORM CAT-CRAFTY PROSPECTOR
stable:tg trainer: tg
Incredible Law is the first foal of game dam Incredible Mojo and by freshman sire Lawyer Ron , so this is some pairing to get a graded winner at first try. Law also tops his sires earning list with $210k in earnings while winning 3 of his 7 starts and the North Fork Stakes-G2 in his final prep for the Breeders Bowl. He also won The Tom's Dawn Cap-St earlier this year. A race and a win over the track goes a long way in this game and it might just do the trick again and he gets a very positive rider switch to 31% winner J. Shivers at 10-1.
7- DISTORTED DRAGON(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY DISTORTED HUMOR-STORM CAT-GONE WEST
stable:reacher trainer: given
Distorted Dragon is one of those wee hours of the morning clicking the mouse till your wife elbows you from scratch homebreds. Bred early this year his proud owner posted on the GR Simsters breeding thread, "This pedigree has 2yo champion written all over it." He's regally bred for sure and has 2 wins from 5 starts but he earned his way into todays field with a fast closing 2nd in the G2 Camel Juvenile. He will be ridden by one of Europe's best in H.Harzheim at 12-1.
8- PHOTONIC ANDRO(IND) 2 YR OLD COLT BY MARCUS ANDRONICUS-APALACHEE-LA FABULEUX
stable: craterus trainer: crate russ
Photonic Andro is a scratch homebred by the surprisingly good freshman sire Marcus Andronicus who already has several stakes winners in a rather small first crop. Trainer stated that he was bred for the turf but ran so well in a presidents day stake that he had his mind changed for him.A stakes winner of over $322k and the DelPenn restricted Hopeful Stakes-St, Battle of the Sexes-St and Gold Rush Sprint-St to his credit. Prepped for the BB with game 2nd in the G2-North Fork Stakes over this strip a month ago. Has M. Staples in the irons at 10-1.
9- CORINTHIAN WAR(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY CORINTHIAN-GONE WEST-SEATTLE SLEW
stable: seacadet trainer: pharoah
Corinthian War is a first foal homebred from the stakes winning mare Eurojet by another very successful freshman sire Corinthian. Lightly raced winner of 2 of 4 lifetime starts and $111k in earnings. Winner of the G3-Trixy Delight's Special at a mile in last to first fashion and prepped for the BB with a belated rally in the G2-Darling-Squash will welcome the added distance this weekend. 28% jock B.Ball get the mount at 13-1.
10- TIZ SMOKIN' NOW(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY SMOKE GLACKEN-TIZNOW-SLEW O' GOLD
stable: flyingtail trainer: chris
Tiz Smokin' Now is a very modestly from scratch homebred and the trainer says “I used Smoke Glacken as his sire to hopefully induce some speed. I then used Tiznow as the dam sire to help him carry that speed”. It looks like its working out so far, the farther he goes the fast he gets. A winner of 2 of 5 lifetime starts and $216k in earnings. He was the shocking winner of the G2-End Of The Line Futurity at 18-1 odds propelling him into the BB field. If he improves again it might be very tough here today. Another 28% jock gets the call P. Harzheim at 16-1.
11- RACING FORM(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY DYNAFORMER-SEEKING THE GOLD-IN REALITY
stable: paddy trainer: topicount (second part of her entry)
Racing Form is the first foal of the royally bred game mare Seeking Happiness, another first foal Graded winner and he is by the still strong Dynaformer who is still throwing tons of stakes winners at age 23. A winner of 2 of 5 races and $143k in earnings was propelled into the field with a much improved effort last time out with stalking win in the G2-Camel Juvenile Stakes. Ships in from the middle east and snags leading California rider F. Gossett at 10-1.
12- BRIDLED DANCER(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY UNBRIDLED'S SONG-SKIP AWAY-GREY DAWN II
stable: russ trainer: russ (sitting on 99 wins this week!)
Bridled Dancer is another first foal Graded winner out of the Graded winning game mare Skip Dancer. He is the leading money winner in the field with over $511k in earnings with 4 wins in 6 career starts. He is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field taking the G1-Hoserhead Juvenile and also the G3-Buckeye Juvenile going wire to wire in his first try at 2 turns in his last prep for the BB. Looks very well meant here and gets the insane 31% winning talents of K. Ledwith and looks almost to good to be true at 8-1.
13- RUNNING SAMURAI(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY FIRST SAMURAI-UNBRIDLED'S SONG-RUNAWAY GROOM
stable: meguire7th trainer: LOL
Running Samurai is a homebred second foal of the very nice producing game mare Bride Will Run, who now has a stakes winner and a graded winner from her first two foals. He is a winner of 2 of 6 lifetime starts and is the winner of the G3-Pea Patch Juvenile in his first try around two turns. Prepped for the BB with an even tripped 5th in the G2-Darling-Squash Futurity and looks like he may have needed the start after a top effort the race before. P.Hayes get reunited with him today at 9-1.
14- OSOTOGARI(KY) 2 YR OLD COLT BY FIRST SAMURAI-FORTY NINER-NUREYEV
stable: ontarget trainer: ontarget
Osotogari is the 5th homebred foal from the game mare Straight Eight, he is her second stakes winner and also is cleverly named after a popular judo leg throw. He is the second runner in the race by modestly priced sire First Samurai. He is a winner of of 4 of 5 tries lifetime with $378k in earnings. He is a 3 time Grade3 winner taking the G3-Television Stakes on the Bluegrass Derby undercard, he also took theG3-Abstract Juvenile, and prepped for the BB with a win in the G3-Cyrogenics Juvenile. His lone defeat was a second place in the G1-Hoserhead Juvenile. He gets the riding services of 30% winning rider T.Small at 7-1 co-favorite odds.
As you can see this is going to be a very tough race for everyone, everywhere you look is a nice colt, honest speed several sharp stalkers and even a few big time closers to make things tight late.
I know the game is all about Math and my system should have some basic math included in it to be an effective system but it doesn't. Unfortunately I can't even explain properly how it works but I will post what i think will be the running order at each call and the finish call. I have never tried this system in the sim to try and predict the outcome of races but if its close I'll have to figure it out in more detail.
Ok so here is in running order at each call.. the 2008 BB Juvy... or not!
First Call:
Racing Form
Tiz Smokin” Now
Duke Of Normandy
Bridled Dancer
Running Samurai
Misty Whisper
Incredible Law
Never Quit
Distorted Dragon
Disguised Regret
Osotogari
Photonic Andro
Sisson's Sunday
Corinthian War
Second Call:
Racing Form
Tiz Smokin” Now
Bridled Dancer
Duke Of Normandy
Running Samurai
Osotogari
Incredible Law
Distorted Dragon
Never Quit
Misty Whisper
Disguised Regret
Photonic Andro
Corinthian War
Sisson's Sunday
Stretch Call:
Duke Of Normandy
Bridled Dancer
Racing Form
Tiz Smokin” Now
Running Samurai
Osotogari
Disguised Regret
Photonic Andro
Incredible Law
Sisson's Sunday
Distorted Dragon
Never Quit
Misty Whisper
Corinthian War
Finish Line:
Distorted Dragon
Duke Of Normandy
Sissons's Sunday
Disguised Regret
Bridled Dancer
Photonic Andro
Osotogari
Never Quit
Tiz Smokin' Now
Running Samurai
Racing Form
Corinthian War
Incredible Law
Misty Whisper
This was just for amusement purposes ..personally I'm bettin on the 12 for all the dough.
Good Luck to everyone.
Irish
