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New Zealand -- Race 3875.8914
New Zealand Darby

New Zealand Darby Test of Class, Endurance
  by topicount on Saturday, February 28, 2009 at 12:06:38 AM


Will Next Turf Superstar Emerge Saturday?

The inaugural running of the New Zealand Darby-G1 boasts $1,650,000 in prize money and a conundrum for handicappers, as this is the first time any of the fourteen entrants have seen 1 1/2 miles. A handful have raced 1 3/16 miles, a full 5/16 shorter, many have yet to even go that far. Almost every year, a dominant turf routing 3yo colt emerges, is he (or she) in this group?

First, we'll look at the colts who have gone at least 9 1/2 furlongs. First on the list is Soldier, who hails from the super conglomerate. By sleeper sire Marcus Andronicus, this colt rides a two race win streak, both at that distance. After winning the Wains World Too over an off track, he posted the best performance of his career by drawing off to win the Huge Tale Stakes by three (90 SF). Solid rider in Rann, lots to like, won't need to improve much here to walk away with the prize. Balogh's Contrador looks like one who will relish the extra distance. A deep closer, he is another who responded with a career best when stretched out, closing for second in the Pro Danzfly Special (94 SF). The Celtic Swing colt will definitely be at the mercy of the pace, and the low percentage jock (0 for 21 this year) doesn't exactly inspire, but if you're looking for an up and comer at a bit of a price, this may be your guy. The winner of the Danzfly Special (97 SF) is also in today's field, Empty Cage, an eyecatching chestnut son of Hinton Wells. Bred and trained by gr8white this is probably one of the colts to beat, and instead of being a co-favorite, he sits at a lovely gift of a price of 10/1. With the second best speed figure of the field at a route, a versatile running style, and a sharp rider in the irons, he's got pretty much the complete package. A must include in any exotic bets. The colt with the best speed figure is sangster's Passelande, who threw down a 98 SF while capturing the Many Bust Handicap at the 9 1/2 furlong distance. Prior to that, the sophomore was a fast-closing third in the G3 Phenom Stakes at 9 furlongs (90 SF), and looks quite dangerous here. At 5/1, he's less of a value play than some of the others, but is definitely the one the others are all keeping an eye on, and he has a solid jockey aboard. Trailing in Passelande's wake was Manikato Again, who opened up a 7 1/4 length uncontested lead before fading to fifth, beaten almost 13 lengths. The seaeagle09 charge's speed figures are a lot lighter than many of his rivals, and the brown colt has tended to lose ground in each of his starts going more than a mile, so this seems somewhat of an uphill battle. Low percentage jock doesn't help, but if this colt can turn things around, he'll offer a nice 23/1.

The lone filly in the field leads the post parade, and her connections hope she is still in the lead at the wire. Foxon4 sends Voltage Spikes to do battle against the boys. The main concern with this leggy daughter of Point Given is the distance, pure and simple. Sprinting, she has four wins in five starts. Routing, she has two seconds from four starts. Granted, that first second looked pretty good, in what was a bang up effort in the G1 Graduation Stakes. In that race, Voltage lit it up, missing by a 1/4 length and posting a snazzy 91 SF. She faded in her next two tries, and her most recent start was an even second against listed company. Voltage will need to regain her Graduation form, plus a little extra, to threaten here, but has a savvy trainer, so don't count her completely out.

Rivers to Cross has several rivers of his own to cross to threaten the top contenders here. Still, the heavygear homebred did win a one mile stakes with an 87 SF, and closed for fourth in his next start. The son of obscure sire I Conquer even hit a 91 SF last out when a dull fifth, also at a mile. Unfortunately, the colt lone try at 9 furlongs had him losing ground while never really picking it up to stay a steady fifth out of seven, and that's not really the sort of effort you want to see if you want to successfully stretch out. Still, the rugged colt has shown flashes of talent.

The Beast Enters has shown plenty of talent so far in his brief career for owner/breeder qwikvett1. However, he is also a source of frustration, as the Green Desert colt has yet to put it together on the big day, finishing second in both on Breeders Bowl day and in the G1 High Flyer Stakes. Both times, the chestnut set the pace, only to get caught at the wire. Interestingly enough, his "dam", Enter the Beast, did his best running going long on the dirt, a surface this guy has yet to try. Still, since the Breeders Bowl, this guy has continued to refuse to rate, and has tired in the stretch, not a good sign here. He was fifth in the Apparently Juvenile-G3, going nine furlongs, and was most recently fourth in the Fainting Goat after dueling early. His speed figures place him right in the thick of things, but the distance limitation is a real concern, unless Inzamam, one of the leading jocks on the circuit, can get him to relax.

On the other hand, Flyer looks like he would love the classic distances. The Wilko colt won the 9 furlong Rich Crown (94 SF) two starts back, and most recently closed from 12th to 7th in a G3 stakes going 1 1/16 miles, a distance that is probably too short for him at that level. Still the nagsrus1 trainee won a listed race at 1 1/16 miles (93 SF). The real question mark is whether he can handle graded competition, as he was a dull seventh in his other try going 1 1/16 miles at that level. Still, if he can pull off a similar effort to the Rich Crown against graded competition, he may very well end up in the winner's circle.

Cymbeline hails from the powerful Lennbrenner empire. The cleverly named son of Shakespeare has proven to be a closer in his short career, and based on his past performances, is another who should like the extra furlongs. After finishing second in a 1 1/16 mile stakes, the chestnut closed out his juvenile campaign with a sharp score in the GR Championships at a flat mile (91 SF) and a closing fourth in the G1 Epiphany Too on DelPenn Champions Day (95 SF). His speed figures are definitely competitive, and his running style looks good. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but if the colt can shake off the rust, his sophomore debut could be a memorable one.

Similarly, The Coolmore Kid is also going from strength to strength. The desimster3 homebred won the restricted Blazing Saddles to close out his sophomore campaign, earning a 94 SF over the mile, and then kicked off his sophomore season with an facile victory in the Royalty Cecil, posting a 90 SF for the 1 1/16 miles. "Dam" did best work sprinting, but Montjeu suggests going long on the turf shouldn't be a problem. Yet another who could win with no surprise.

Second behind The Coolmore Kid is the lightly raced Follow the Star from topicount stables. The son of Dylan Thomas won at first asking, then closed for second with an 86 SF. Speed figures are a bit light, and he'll need to step it up again here, but with only two starts under his belt, he is definitely eligible for improvement, at a price of 38/1.

Next is checkmate1's Pay the Line, a handsome son of Hard Ten. The sophomore has raced four times at a flat mile, winning three times before flattening out to be last of 14 in the Fainting Goat Nightmare Stakes-G1 five weeks ago. His connections have clearly considered that race to be a toss. However, at a mile, the colt has usually sprinted to the lead and hung on, which doesn't create a lot of confidence stretching out half again as far. Dahl is going to have his hands full getting this guy to relax, especially with Manikato Again and The Beast Enters in the mix. If he can, Pay the Line will be dangerous on the lead, and could make his opponents pay.

Rounding out the field is Pauls entry, Dark Mage. The son of Theatrical looked good in the restricted Cavalcade Cup, when he closed for third at 1 1/16 miles (80 SF). However, his career has taken a decided downward turn, speed figure wise, even though his connections did manage to get a stakes win out of him sprinting. He may prove to be a deep closer who needs more ground, but his speed figures are at least 10 points lighter than the main competition.

Good luck to all of the horses and their connections!

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