New York -- Race 3910.0414 Wooden Indian -- Derby Lock Prep
Road to the Derby -Wooden Indian Lock Race! by pazjazz
on
Thursday, April 02, 2009 at
10:33:34 PM
It's easily a FIVE horse race!
Wooden Indian -- Derby Lock Prep Grade I A mile and one eighth on the Fast Dirt Course $750,000 All horses, 3 years old Stakes record – 2004 – Tuff Enuff, 1:47-4/5, SPF 108.913 (9 Furlongs)Well, after all of the talk this week about which horses would come here for this all important Lock Race because of the weatherman promising an off track, it turns out that it should be overcast but the threat of rain is low so it looks like we will have a firm and fast track. Some of these trainers and owners pointed their young colts here because of the promised rain and mud but it looks like several of the top horses went to one of the other Lock Races being held this weekend. That is not to say that we don’t have plenty of talent here and that includes one of the top ranked fillies. It appears that there will be plenty of frayed nerves among trainers and owners as the window for entries in the Bluegrass Derby is steadily shrinking and only one from this race is guaranteed a slot. It should be a hotly contested and fun race so let’s take a look:
1 - ALTABLE(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Rafa Stables
17/1
Zatopeck
14.5%
T.Johnson
48 - 0 - 2 - 1 - 0 %
96
$ 87,412
198
( UNBRIDLED'S SONG x PULPIT x IRISH RIVER(FR) out of TERMANTIA) Here is one that was hoping for that rain this weekend. The charcoal colored colt had a nice outing on an off track last time out in the G3 Gary Asher where he finished a close third with his best SPF by far with a 96. Trainer Zatopeck and the Rafa Stables now know that this colt has the goods and needs to show it either on a fast dirt track or perhaps on the grass. They have Johnson in the saddle and that seems to be a problem as he is nearing 50 mounts this season and is still looking for his first trip to the winner’s circle. One good thing is that he should like the inside post as he likes to be near the lead.
2 - RIPPERBEAST(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Qwikvett Stables
5/1
Pincay
15.0%
B.Child
210 - 38 - 35 - 32 - 18 %
102
$ 425,000
25
( POINT GIVEN x MR. PROSPECTOR x SEATTLE SLEW) This guy doesn’t really care about the weather as he can run on anything. Trainer Pincay and the Qwikvett Stables have to worry a bit though as they are definitely on the bubble for a Derby entrant. They need a real solid showing here to move up in the rankings a bit and hope that is enough. They’ve got Child in the leather and he has been looking good all year and would love to bring this colt home. The morning line has put him in as the co-favorite and deservedly so. He likes to come from the back and there should be enough early speed to make that a good option here. Should be in the mix.
3 - FOR SPEIGHT(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Gipper Stables
11/1
Buzz
15.1%
L.Hoskins
31 - 1 - 6 - 7 - 3 %
99
$ 199,510
63
(SPEIGHTSTOWN x SEATTLE SLEW x SECRETARIAT out of SLEW’S BEST FILLY) This colt with the Triple S breeding has been coming on strong lately. He won three of his last four including the Gary Asher G3 last time out. That trip was on an off track but he looks like he can run as well or better on the fast track too. Trainer Buzz has chosen Hoskins to hold the reins and he is running way below his 13 year average in his mounts this year and needs to pick it up. The colt likes to run mid-pack before making his move and this post should be good for that. He needs to continue his improvement to have a shot here but he looks to have that kind of talent.
4 - SPANISH SWORD(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Super Stables
8/1
Super23
14.3%
I.Torres
28 - 5 - 1 - 2 - 18 %
104
$ 236,530
39
( EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x SUMMER SQUALL out of FLY LIKE THE WIND) The first of a coupled entry for the Super Stables, this colt had a big race last time out after a couple of tries on the turf. He threw a speedy 104 SPF in the El Camino G3 to win rather easily and looks like he may have turned the corner in his maturity level. This Stable has tons of experience with these top flight colts and knows how to get them ready for the big races. They have Torres in the irons and he has looked great this season and could be a difference maker for this ride. He likes to be on or near the lead and this post should help that. There should be a good chance that this colt will be looking over his shoulder coming down the stretch to see who is coming at him.
5 - DISTORTED DRAGON(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Given Stables
6/1
Reacher
23.2%
N.Lawton
223 - 67 - 45 - 27 - 30 %
100
$ 958,020
4
( DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM CAT x GONE WEST) Nine of nine on the board for this big chestnut colt and all four of his Gradeds he has finished in the top two. Trainer Reacher has zoned in on this distance which looks to be the best for his colt too. They have the tracks best jockey on board in Lawton and the experience of the Given Stables behind them. All in all, it makes for a formidable team that should compete here. He is a late closer that should benefit from the early speed and could ride it right into a spot in the winner’s circle. He shouldn’t have to worry about getting into the Derby with a top five ranking but a nice prep race here would be a good springboard to the big race in May.
6 - STAKE YOUR CLAIM(IRE)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Qwikvett Stables
21/1
Qwikvett1
11.2%
R.Foster
43 - 2 - 3 - 1 - 5 %
92
$ 72,836
18
( ACCLAMATION (GB) x EMPIRE MAKER x GONE WEST out of QWIKVETT’S EMPIRE) One of the better filly’s in this years three year old class, but since she had a nice run in the UPPER STATE JUVENILE G3 last November she has taken a step back for trainer Qwikvett1. She has tried racing against the boys and the girls this year with less than desirable results. It appears that the owners may have to give her a layoff and see if she recovers. She has Foster in the stirrups and he is struggling almost as much this year. Between the two, the prospects in this race look dim.
7 - SUMMER FLEET(JPN)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Zoomr Stables
10/1
Zoomr4
9.9%
S.Israel
34 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 6 %
98
$ 121,750
70
( AFLEET x SUMMER SQUALL x KEY TO THE MINT) This chestnut colt is pretty tough to read. It is hard to say if he likes the sprints better or not and after a couple of consecutive races last fall where he closed nicely, he seems to fade down the stretch. Trainer Zoomr4 has done a nice job moving him around and trying different things but he just hasn’t seemed to find his niche yet. They have Israel in the leather and he’s had his own struggles this year. Perhaps they can put it all together and get it done here but this is a tough field and it would be a surprise.
8 - PERFECT DENIAL(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
The Evil Empire
9/1
Lenny3
23.2%
G.Smith
34 - 4 - 3 - 6 - 12 %
105
$ 116,410
143
( PLEASANTLY PERFECT x SEEKING THE GOLD x NIJINSKY II out of PROMINENT) The Evil Empire has a real knack for bringing these lightly raced three year olds into the Lock races and going home with some hardware and a place in the Derby. This colt matches the formula with six races and all on the board including an eye popping 105 SPF last time out in the TABASCO WAVERING Stakes where he was nipped at the wire by GHOSTGOLD who went on to finish third in the ALL SAINTS Lock race. As long as he doesn’t have a bounce here from that race he should be in the mix. Especially with solid jockey Smith guiding, this colt could be another in the Lenny line that ends up in the Bluegrass.
9 - FINGER PAINTING(ENG)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Red Dirt Runners
12/1
Dmshicago
10.7%
C.Jamison
27 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 1 %
99
$ 47,537
180
( DUTCH ART x SINGINGINTHERAIN x FAST PLAY out of SINGFORYOUR SUPPER) This colt has shown nice improvement for trainer Dmshicago throughout his career but the only worry is that he seems to like the mile distance better than anything longer. This could be a good test for him although I also worry that he will be guided by jockey Jamison who is not quite hitting on all cylinders so far this campaign. The colt’s stalking style should do him well with not many in this field going that route but I’m not sure he will like the extra real estate.
10 - TONYOCITY(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Tamjennic Stables
5/1
Tamjennic
6.9%
P.Davis
172 - 24 - 20 - 25 - 14 %
102
$ 306,275
26
( PLEASANTLY PERFECT x AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY) If this colt can continue the pattern of his last four races where he has a huge finish for a win followed by a fade to a fourth place finish, this should be the win week. He has been bouncing a bit but looks fit and ready for this race. He is on the bubble and needs a good run for trainer Tamjennic if he wants to get into the Bluegrass. He will have one of the tracks best jocks in the irons in Davis and I think that he will be able to convince the colt that this is his week. He is a deep closer and just needs to make sure that he doesn’t start his charge from too far back. He should be chasing them down the stretch and could pull out the win if all goes right.
11 - PIRATE RADIO(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Twoofus Stables
20/1
Soho
11.9%
J.Mannion
24 - 4 - 2 - 0 - 17 %
88
$ 105,030
176
( DEHERE x FORTY NINER x SUMMER SQUALL out of MIDNIGHT ROSE) It will be quite a story if this colt can come in and pull this race off. He will need to bump up his SPF by about 20 points having run no faster than an 88 coming in. He won his last race, an overnight allowance which was his first win since his maiden 10 back. He certainly has the pedigree to compete here and he has a hot jockey in Mannion but he is going to be the story of the Bluegrass if he is able to sneak in with a win in this Lock race.
12 - DESTINY'S GONE(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Right At Home Stables
14/1
ChloeDawg2
13.7%
S.Buda
22 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 0 %
95
$ 383,616
11
( GONE WEST x NIJINSKY II x ALYDAR) I’m sure that trainer ChloeDawg2 was doing rain dances this week as this colt already has a Grade 1 win on an off track. Unfortunately, once again it looks to be overcast but no rain for the weekend and this colt probably would have a better chance if it rained. This is a good distance for him and he is getting better but I’m not sure if he is ready to take on the top horses in this race on a dry track. The other problem is that jockey Buda is still looking for his first win of the year and we are already in April. That doesn’t bode well for this front runner especially from this far out in the gate.
13 - GHOST DANCERS(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Super Stables
7/1
Super22
14.0%
S.Klein
16 - 2 - 2 - 3 - 13 %
103
$ 117,039
152
( GHOSTZAPPER x KINGMAMBO x DANEHILL out of DANCE OF THE DANES) Although this colt has hit the board in eight of ten, he has had a hard time finishing for trainer Super22. He even had a nice 103 SPF two back but came in second. He is the second half of the coupled entry for the Super Stable in this race and looks like his impeccable breeding will eventually send him to the top but he needs to learn how to finish on top. Jockey Klein may help in that regard as he certainly knows how to bring home winners. This colt has the possibility of winning here but I’m just not sure that he’s ready.
14 - ROHO(JPN)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Smokeglack Stables
29/1
Nicanor
1.5%
R.Haffner
85 - 4 - 8 - 6 - 5 %
88
$ 82,473
68
( AFLEET x PRIVATE ACCOUNT x COX'S RIDGE) Trainer Nicanor was obviously hoping for the mystery rain that apparently isn’t going to show up for the party. Other than his maiden, this colts only win was the WINGS OF A DOVE Stakes on an off track. He’s never run faster than an 86 on a fast track and that certainly won’t get it done here. He is coming along and may bloom later in the year for the Smokeglack Stables. Jockey Haffner needs to do some blooming as well as he has only four wins on the season. Good experience for this team but a win would be a major surprise.
Morning Line = 2-10-5-13-4-8 Paz Picks = 4-3-11-9-10
There are literally five horses in this race that I think you could throw a blanket over because they are so close. Put them all in a hat and draw out any one of them and you have a good shot to ride them all the way to the Bluegrass Derby. I hate to pick a winner but that is why the BTB assigns these things to me. Here goes nothing: I can’t believe that I have this horse in the fifth spot on my card because I genuinely think that he can win it but I have RIPPERBEAST in that slot. I like TONYOCITY to finish fourth although he may finish much better especially with Davis on his back as I think he is one of the best. It’s tough to pick against the Super Crew but I only have one winner to give. I think that SPANISH SWORD has enough to finish in the top three. There were a couple of different scenarios where I had DISTORTED DRAGON winning this race but the last one that I drew up has him settling for second. He’s still going to make the Bluegrass and that should set up a rematch with PERFECT DENIAL who just seems to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time. It is hard to bet against Lenny in these Lock Races!
Wooden Indian -- Derby Lock Prep
