Road to Epsom Starts Here by iant
on
Thursday, November 12, 2009 at
6:47:49 PM
The Saint Cloud - Grade I - $500,000
Race : The Saint Cloud - Grade I - $500,000 Track : Paris (FR)
This week’s race is the last grade1 of the European Turf racing season. It is held at the Saint-Cloud race tack in Paris. I will not be attending as I have the second biggest betting turnover race of the month 10 miles away from my house in the Paddy Power Gold Cup £100k bets are not uncommon in the betting ring.
This race is for 2yo’s over 10f this may seem like hard work and the fact it is usually run on heavy ground makes it more of a slog. It is fair to say some very good horses have won this race over the year’s many decent sires in time, especially in the national hunt division of racing. In fact I am sure there will be some horses running at Cheltenham sired by past winners of this race. You therefore need a horse that stays well and acts with cut in the ground. This means for the most part you need a European bred horse. The declarations for the real life race bear this out. Eleven of the twelve by European based sires. The odd one out being Medaglia D’oro he has been doing very well at stud even outside of Rachel Alexandra.
It is no surprise to see as in most recent years that Sadler’s Wells and his sons have been to the fore in pedigrees in this race. Montjeu and Galileo both have two sons in this year’s race. It would be a major surprise if one of them does not win it.
Some of the past winners of the race that have made there mark at stud include.
Le Fabuleux he went onto to be a decent sire in time. He also did well as a broodmare sier of course famous for Arazi in the most part. He does reasonably well in the game and is a source of stamina no surprises there.
Sea Hawk was another horse who was stamina packed and won this race. He was a good sire especially of long distance horses in the 1970’s and was a decent broodmare sire. He had several top class horses as a dam sire. He is rarely seen in pedigrees now. He would more likely appear in the 4th or fifth generation.
Darshaan won this as a 2yo before winning the best classic horse race of the modern era in terms of the breed. His 1984 French Derby win came over Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest all have been exceptional sires and dam sires. Darshaan’s son Dalakhani has the best stakes winners to runners percentage of any 3rd crop sire in the northern hemisphere and surley will get a massive boost next year. The results cannot keep getting ignored. As a dam sire Darshaan has been awesome he has now around 150 stakes winning offspring as a dam sire. He is therefore a leading dam sire and if you look at his graded winners worldwide over the last 5 years he is easily within the top ten and deserves a substantial boost at least in the sim.
Pistolet Bleu did well at stud and is a good source of stamina. In alter years before his early death he did very well as a sire of national hunt horses as well.
Poliglote is a son of Sadler’s Wells who was a decent racehorse. He is not very good in the sim but in real life he has a decent record. He gets a steady flow of graded winners in France most seasons in recent years his stakes percentage of winners compares favourably with Giant’s Causeway in Europe. This is pretty good for a dual purpose sire. He really excels in Chile and Argentina where he has met with substantial success as a sire. He has multiple grade 1 winners. He would be very interesting as a sire if Mike was to introduce shuttling into the sim. It would be even more so if 2 and 3 year old graded stakes races were hemisphere restricted in the future.
Fame And Glory won this race last year before taking the Irish Derby this year. He has spent the majority of 2009 chasing home Sea The Stars though. He may struggle finding a place at stud as a flat sire when you look at the talent Montjeu appears to have with his 2yo’s in 2009.
As for the runners this week we have a full field that was over subscribed for entries as well.
HOROMETER (IND) MARCUS ANDRONICUS x MONSUN (GER) x CARO (IRE)
The sire was an ok horse. I have to say he was not very big and no impressive to look at. It was no surprise with his race record Coolmore got rid of him before he even made it to stud. He really has little to offer and it would be a major shock to ever see any of his offspring contest a grade 1 race in Europe. The back end of the pedigree is impressive. This horse has done little wrong so far winning his maiden and then becoming graded placed. The big issue is will he stay the back end says yes the front end says no. If staying he has a shot at a place.
SHABOOM SHABOOM (JPN) DEEP IMPACT x SINGSPIEL (IRE) x SHADEED
Deep Impact is seen as the best horse ever to run in Japan. He was not the greatest looker and had his limitations exposed in the Arc and was disqualified for a failed drug test. He is from the excellent Highclere family think Nashwan, Unfuwain and a classic winning filly in England this year as some examples. There have to be doubts about him siring top 12f+ horses looking at his close relatives and the fact he appeared not to stay in the Arc as well. The back end of the pedigree is good Singspiel grossly underrated in the sim for a 10% stakes horses to foals stallion real life and three grade 1 winners in 2009 not bad going. This horse is already a stakes winner and has been looking like he needs more ground in his last two starts. He has to improve his speed figures to win or place but it is not beyond the realms of belief.
BURNT LAWN (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x DANEHILL x SADLER'S WELLS
Montjeu has the best three 2yo colts in the northern hemisphere this year from his best book of mares. He should sire the winner of this race in real life on Saturday for the second year. Last years winner went onto win a classic. This horse is heavily inbred to Sadler’s Wells. In real life the 3x3 cross is starting to work well and several graded stakes winners already have shown this in there breeding. This horse has only run at 8f or more once and ran on well for second you would also think the increased trip would be in his favour. The fact that race had his best speed figure should give the owner hope he should run a big race on Saturday. He has great chance of making the frame.
REED ROAD (KY) HENRYTHENAVIGATOR x PLEASANT COLONY x ROBERTO
I am amazed this horse won on an off track as his sire was at least 14 pounds inferior if the ground was not rock hard. He was a dual classic winner but was shipped of to Kentucky by Coolmore. This was understandable given the poor record of sons of Kingmambo at stud. Dubai Destination who had a grade 1 winner in his first crop has been sold to be a national hunt sire by Darley so needs a massive downgrade in the sim next year. This horse has won at 9.5f I guess he gets his stamina from the back end his dam sire sired St Jovite a good source of stamina and excellent racehorse. The positive is therefore the trip the negative is this is a filly up against the boys. For this reason I will not be making a selection of this filly in this race. She could do well against her own sex next year though.
GRAND INDY (KY) GRAND SLAM x MORE THAN READY x A.P. INDY
This horse ahs a sire who is grossly over rated in the sim no horses ever rated above 125 only one above 120 Cajun Beat. He has only two grade 1 wins to his offspring’s name since 2000. His euro stakes winners he has had some but all five are not running over 10f. More Than Ready is a good source of speed in Australia where he does very well. There is no reason t believe this combination could produce a turf horse capable of being top class over 10f+. This filly has been graded placed over 9f and was beaten Road last time. I see no reason why a reverse in form should happen here. I do not fancy the filly above therefore hold out little hope for the owner getting the winner of this race.
STREET LEMON (KY) LEMON DROP KID x STREET CRY (IRE) x RED RANSOM
Lemon Drop Kid has done ok as a sire without getting any top class horses and his sim level is about right. Street Cry is a strange sire he has done very well in the USA mind Zenyatta accounts for over a quarter of all his grade 1 wins. He has had a few good horses in Australia as well. In Europe he has been poor only his first crop had any decent horses and a filly one a grade 1 it has been downhill since then. If you read Timeform you will be amazed at the number of his offspring who get the squiggle (un-genuine horse). His stock is not in demand now in Europe. His stud fee is really high given that his sales medium at Keeneland was $10k less. You would have to be silly to send him a mare as a commercial breeder. This horse has done well but is again a filly and was behind Grand Indy last time and offer little value to punters.
DUEL TO THE DEATH (ENG) GREEN DESERT x DIESIS (GB) x STORM CAT
Green Desert has no w been retired from stud duties. His son’s Oasis Dream and Invincible Spirit both had Breeders Cup winners. Oasis Dream also had a grade winner on the undercard on the Friday. Diesis has been doing well as a dam sire with a couple of classic winner in the last few years in England. Here is a recent article on him or the link at least http://www.thoroughbredinternet.com/newsmore.html?Id=17248. The stamina in the breeding obviously comes from Diesis. This colt is unbeaten on the turf which is good. He won a graded race on his last start as well. If the step up in trip is not an issue he should be the shake up at the end of this race.
WALTZING IN (KY) KINGMAMBO x SADLER'S WELLS x ALYDAR
This guy has been bred on the Kingmambo Sadler’s Wells cross that has done so well in real life in recent years. Kingmambo has suffered serious health issues and given his fee has gone private for 2010 there has to be every reason to believe it will be his last year at stud even if he makes it to covering time. Kingmambo needs stamina for his offspring to stay with the back end here he get’s just that so it should be able to stay on paper at least. The horse likes turf has a graded win over 9f as well. His speed figure need to improve but there is no reason they cannot. He has decent prospects of making the frame in a well matched race.
LUCKY'S EINSTEIN (ENG) CACIQUE (IRE) x RAHY x GONE WEST
This horse’s sire has been removed from stud duties so will be another not available next year. He has in effect not been available for the last two years as he has a low sperm count his only products coming from his first crop which sold well. There could have been a rarity value and the fact he is a cheap version of his very good brother. I do not hold out much hope for the other brother how retires this year as he was an inferior racehorse and a bleeder. This horse won a graded race over 6f in July no surprise there given the name of the race. He has since been well beaten. The changes are being rung here straight from 6f to 10f. It is very much a wait and see exercise he will either love it or hate it. He either wins or gets beat 30+ lengths. I will not be investing in the horse in this race.
CROSSED FORM (ENG) DUBAWI (IRE) x CAPE CROSS (IRE) x DYNAFORMER
Dubawi is the leading sire first year northern hemisphere on number of winners. He has done well so far at stud and has good support from Darley mares which will help him long term. Cape Cross tough still young has been the dam sire of at least one grade 1 winner in real life. This horse has been running I good races since breaking his maiden. He has not one won. He is stepping up in trip today to see if that helps. I would hazard a guess that it will not and others have better form over shorter trips. He has a stiff task to be a factor in this race.
STREETS OF COLAC (KY) STREET HERO x GRAND LODGE (IRE) x SHARPEN UP (GB)
He is one of those only in the sim horses. His stallion is highly unlikely to make it at stud being an average horse injured as a 2yo retired straight to stud. In fact he is a 3/10 sire on paper and rates as a 50 point at the end of the week kind of animal. His sire has been poor in Europe on the turf as well so he will not be popular and will not get the right quality of mares to arouse interest. The back end of the breeding is pretty good. Grand Lodge has had 4 graded winners as a broodmare sire this year including a horse that has a very good chance in the real version of this race. I am guessing this is where all the ability comes from. This fellow was beaten last time but put up his best speed figure going his longest trip. This has to be seen as a positive though being beaten in a nw2x before raises some question. A repeat of his last run puts him in the mix here.
NORTH EAST (KY) NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x SADLER'S WELLS
As I expected North Light has been terrible at stud so far. His European offspring make him look like a 5 point skid and from what I know elsewhere the results are equally as bad. He was a slow Derby winner who never won again a half brother to a horse Cover Up who was best at 2 3/4miles on the flat! Coolmore who take the best of his breeder’s horses at stud passed him over even for national hunt duty. It really does show how poor Adena Springs are at selecting talent for there stallion ranks or is it the mares? Ghostzapper is another first crop failure on there books. This horse need regarding to the skids section next year but should have been there to start with. This horse started ok with a stakes win, his last two have seen him cut back in trip. I believe this has not been a benefit to the horse and expect him to put an improved run in this race he could even make the frame.
CODE FORTY (JPN) DANCE IN THE DARK (JPN) x CRYPTOCLEARANCE x FORTY NINER
This sire is based in Japan no big surprise he has 5 wins worldwide by his offspring and no horses rated above 125. His best offspring is the Melbourne Cup winner Delta Blues. He is usually a source for stamina which should help this horse. His back end is more class 6 at Southwell than Grade 1 turf at Saint Cloud but such is the sim. His dam sire has had two graded winners in real life both in Brazil which is not much of an advert as neither was at graded level. He obviously needs downgrading in the sim. This horse has done well on turf and appears to be improving. The extra distance should suit as well and a decent run should be expected in this race.
INTRUDER ALERT (KY) DYNAFORMER x VICTORY GALLOP x EL PRADO (IRE)
Dynaformer is another sire who appears to be on his last season at stud. He has a reduced book of mares and has a really silly payment date. He looks like a sire only for the shareholders in the coming season. He has been a solid sire how eared his respect at stud the hard way. He is one of the better sires around and has had 9 individual graded winners worldwide this year. He is usually a source of slow maturing stamina. This colt seems to be of type. His best two runs have been his longest two which were both wins. He has to convert that into graded ability which did not happen over 8f. If he does he must have decent prospects of making the frame as the trip should suit.
As for my selections in a good field for a 10f 2yo race –
1, Duel To The Death unbeaten on turf hopes to keep his record 2, Shaboom Shaboom looks open to improvement over this longer trip 3 Intruder Alert will stay and can improve on what he has shown so far
