Time to take a break by iant
on
Thursday, January 21, 2010 at
7:46:56 AM
Fitness Cup
Fitness Cup Grade II Two miles Firm Turf $262,500 All horses, 3 years old and up Race ID:4204.8914
This week we are again in New Zealand for a 2 mile turf race. The field looks reasonable with a classic winner from last year among the line up. There is a massive over representation of runners from the USA which really needs addressing but will take some years for Mike to fix but has to be looked into ASAP. I hope to have a BTB article ready in the next week or so on this subject the data is in place it is just analysis the facts in word format. The results are interesting and leave a lot of food for thought.
PORTUGAL THE MAN (IRE) SADLER'S WELLS x ALYDAR x SEATTLE SLEW
The sire and dam sire combination here are a proven graded winning strategy in real life. The back end makes the pedigree really weak for turf racing though. The record of the now Sadler’s Wells as a dam sire in real life is not truly reflected in the sim he is by far the most likeliest sire of a graded runner in the world he leads this list comfortably. Some of the other sires in the top ten would surprise though. In real life his last yearlings were sold last year. This horse has a good win to run ratio. He also like an off track but that is not important in this race. He is in good form and has a couple of graded wins in his last four starts. He has to have a very good chance of making the frame in this field.
PERSISTANT (JPN) DEEP IMPACT (JPN) x ZABEEL (NZ) x DANZIG
Deep Impact is the best horse ever to race in Japan. The problem is he was exposed in the Arc when he ran in Europe. Like many horses from Japan they seem not to stay when put in a fast end to end gallop of a top European race, It is fair to say a mile and half horse in Japan is more like a 10f horse in Europe. His female family which is from England is more about speed which supports the fact he is not that likely to be a prolific source of stamina. It is good to see Zabeel represent in this race in New Zealand. This horse has been running ok of late but his last win was in a nw4l. He needs to step up from that big time here to be a factor, the extra trip would have to suit for that to be the case. It is hard to see him winning this.
TUDOR MANOR (ENG) DOYEN (IRE) x STRAWBERRY ROAD (AUS) x TUDOR MINSTREL
Doyen at his best was a very good racehorse. In fact the highest rated middle distance horse of 2004. He comes from an excellent female family as well. His stud record does not look good Darley have already sold him to Germany I hope for his sake he does better there. His first runners are a poor bunch but may well improve with age. It would be a major surprise if he can produce more than the odd stakes winner ever now and then in real life. He would be justified as a downgrade in the sim by a large amount. It is good to see the dam sire in the pedigree of a good horse as he does really well in real life and is better than his sim record would suggest. This horse has never run beyond 10f so the trip is a big question mark. He looks like he wants further than he has been running over but this is a big jump in trip. At his best and if he can carry his speed 2 miles he would have place prospects.
ADDICTIONS (SAF) DAYLAMI (IRE) x PLEASANT COLONY x CAPOTE
Daylami was an excellent racehorse and much was expected from him at stud. He fell flat on his face and was sent of in shame to South Africa. The reason why he failed is simple a lot of his offspring had wind problems. His being sent to South Africa is not going to change that. If he has not had a considerable reduction in ability it would be worthy. This horse is a prime example of why two and three year old racing should be hemisphere specific. Last year as a three year old he spent it all racing in other 3yo only races many he would not have been allowed to run in real life. This therefore is a massive jump up in class to face an open age race. His speed figures are good and he has run well even winning at graded level over 14f. The trip should suit and as long as he handles the open age company he has place claims in this race.
TOXIC LEVELS (AUS) VISCOUNT (AUS) x AWESOME AGAIN (CAN) x SADLER'S WELLS
Viscount was a very good racehorse and multiple grade 1 winner. His record as a sire is not so great. His best two runners have been sprinters led by Rocket Man the top racehorse in Singapore. This is no real surprise as over 40% of the worlds top sprinters are Australian bred this is an area that needs to be looked into in the sim as at present not one of the top 50 turf sprinters has an (AUS) tag. This is really strange and need to be looked at and introduced and improved over the next couple of years. This horse is a graded winner over the trip. The only problem is that his next two starts have not been all that exciting. He has to bounce back to form big time to have any chance of making the frame in what looks a decent race.
AGAIN WE WILL RISE (KY) EMPIRE MAKER x BLACK TIE AFFAIR (IRE) x LYPHARD
Empire Maker is one of those sires that you just shake your head about. He was never going to be never has and never will be a decent turf sire. A reduction in his ability on turf of around 90% would be reasonable and justifiable to get him to about the right level. This horse stays well but the fact he has been beaten in a claim in the last year tells us a lot of his chances in this race. He ran in a graded race last time and was beaten double digits. I would expect the same to happen in this class of field.
CHANNEL ONE (KY) ENGLISH CHANNEL x MILL REEF x GRAUSTARK
Mill Reef was an outstanding dam sire. That is the problem. His last horse to win at graded level as a dam sire in terms of age was born in 2003. It would appear he is no longer active in this role in real life. It would therefore make sense to reduce the active age of dam sires in the game to twenty. This also increases the sim gene pool over time. It there age is not decreased the ability should be every year from sixteen years after death by 15% per year. This horse has done ok. He has shown improved speed figures in his last two starts both wins. He may well be one of those horses that improve with age. He has place prospects if that is the case.
NEW MONEY (KY) MINESHAFT x DANEHILL x FAPPIANO
Here we have the classic winner in the race. He won the sim Saint Legend the world’s oldest classic. It does seem silly that race has a grade 2 status when it is a far superior race to the Japanese version which carried grade 1 status and should be grade 3 at best. He has run well since then in top class races. This is in effect a drop in class for him. He is though running at 2 miles for the first time. The evidence on paper would suggest it should suit but you never know until you try. He is still a very good horse over twelve furlongs but at these types of trips distance is not such a big factor for the best horses. If he handles the step up to 2 miles he has to have an excellent chance in this race.
BEEZAL (NZ) ZABEEL (NZ) x SADLER'S WELLS x EXPLOSIVE BID
At last a horse bred in New Zealand. His sire has been a very good sire over the years. He is short of top class but has had a steady flow of grade 1 winners he is near the end of his time at stud. He has had fertility issues which will not get better. There are plenty of sires with far worse records than him that do far better in the sim. He is another who has benefited from running in 3yo old races all last year. This may have cause the problem on his first start of this year with the jump up to open class company. He has to improve on that effort here although it was a decent speed figure. The other big factor is the jump up in trip as well. If all things fell in place he could make the frame.
As for my selections:-
1, New Money stands out on form and if 2 miles not a problem should win 2, Channel One looks the type to go onto good things as a 4yo 3, Portugal The Man solid form and place prospects
CHANNEL ONE (KY) ENGLISH CHANNEL x MILL REEF x GRAUSTARK
