Watching from the pool is not a godo idea by iant
on
Thursday, January 28, 2010 at
7:56:43 AM
The Road Rash
Race ID:4211.5114 The Road Rash Grade III A mile and one eighth Firm Turf $200,000 All horses, 4 years old and up
We have travelled to Dubai this week for the opening of the new Meydan racecourse. I know this race is actually next week in real life so that it not really the case. The new 60k grandstand is 1.6km long which is not much use if you are in the cheap seats given the straight course is just over 1km long. I am sure in certain parts the view is terrible in fact I ma sure Terry Waite had a better view changed to his radiator in Beirut. The grandstand though looks impressive. The roof top swimming pool is of interest but is about 2 furlongs past the winning post so not ideal for watching races in.
This race is new in world terms and has only had one winner of any note the Zimbabwe bred mare Ipi Tombe. She was a tough high class horse. She was one of the horses who sold the carnival to the world which is displayed by the true international nature of the event. Overall you have to judge what has been done in Dubai as a success and good for the world wide brand which is horse racing. The way people are paid help encouraged to travel to the event leads the world. This can be seen in even better light with the sacking of the lady who did a lot to promote the Breeders Cup overseas this week. Nothing like good timing by incompetent management there even receiving a an open letter to the Thoroughbred Times from some very important people upset about the decision whishing the lady well for the future.
BOWLED SHANE (IRE) BAHRI x ZAFONIC x CARR DE NASKRA
Zafonic is starting to build up a nice record as a dam sire he has had 16 graded winners over the last ten years which is pretty good. On the negative side he is by Gone West so many are mental and he gets a lot of bleeders as well again Gone West’s fault. It is worth noting his brother Zaminder has had some serious books of mares these last couple of years. He is a sire who will get improved results over the next few years. This horse is a decent type and goes well over this strange trip. He has won his last two with good speed figures. His graded race record at the wrong trip is not so great. He has to improve to make the frame here.
RODE ME HARD (KY) RAHY x SEEKING THE GOLD x FAPPIANO
Rahy got downgraded as a sire in the sim a few years back. He has though been doing very well as a dam sire notching up 35 graded wins in this area. It may be worth upgrading him again to reflect this. He is a sire no longer covering at stud and it is fair to say that no horse has been able to replace him in terms of type and ability at stud in the USA. Seeking Te Gold is another sire doing well as a dam sire he had an excellent 2009. This is a very good horse he has no problem with 100+ speed figures and is a multiple graded winner. He likes the trip which is another bonus and sets the standard in this race. The only negative is that he is five now and some horses just go blah when the calendar year changes. If this does not happen he is the one to beat.
VINO VERITAS (KY) STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR x NEVER SAY DIE
It is worth noting that Strom Cat has had less graded winners over the last ten years than Rahy only by one as a dam sire. His sim record therefore seems very lofty indeed. This horse stays much further than you would expect on breeding to be honest he is more a sprinter miler. The owner is hoping the drop back in trip helps him in this race. He has run well in graded races in his last few starts which are a positive sign. If the trip reduction is of benefit he could run into a place.
UNGROOMED (IRE) GALILEO (IRE) x UNBRIDLED x BLUSHING GROOM (FR)
Galileo had an excellent year as a sire last year. Over 20% of his runners in Europe earned black type this was from a very large sample size as well. That is as good as it get today in the real world in terms of producing top class horses. His crops coming through are from better mares so at worst this trend should carry on. His first 2yo’s hit the track in 2005 he has had 35 graded winners compared to Storm Cat with 41over the whole decade it is obvious who is the better sire by some way. This is a decent horse as well. He runs well but does not win very often. The trip suits and he is graded class. If he puts his best foot forward he is more than capable of being a major player in this race.
DON'T DROP A DEUCE (KY) GIANT'S CAUSEWAY x RED RANSOM x MR. PROSPECTOR
Giant’s Causeway has done well as a sire 41 graded wins tells you as much. He has had lots of runners and his percentages show a different story they put him some way below Galileo when looked at in probability to sire a graded runner to foals. It is somewhere around 10%. That is still good in the breeding environment today. It will be interesting to see how his Argentinean crops do. I expect they will boost his percentages. This horse has had six runs. He looks a really exciting prospect hacking up in three 9f races. The last was a stakes win and a graded start is justified. He has more to come as well. The negative is this is his first shot at open age company so in real terms is a double jump. It may be a bit much first time but I cannot see it being long before this horse wins some graded races. He should make the frame and looks very exciting.
COMPLETELY ALONE (KY) GONE WEST x NORTHERN DANCER (CAN) x KRIS S.
There is a lot going on with this horses breeding. Gone West was never that good as a sire he has only had 10 graded winners over the last decade and obviously was greatly over rated in the sim. He is a good dam sire though with 27 winners at graded level in the same period. He fits very much into the Rahy mode and comments about Rahy not being replaced can be echoed for this horse. Of interest is Northern Dancer he has had only 5 graded winners as a dam sire this century. In real terms he is finished as a dam sire and should really not produce anything of note as such now. This is why depreciating old sires when they reach a certain time after death would be a good thing. Zafonic should be on everyone list to use as a dam sire before Northern Dancer and the rewards should be reflected in racing ability. This is a good horse who has won his last two races. This was after a drop in class. He was struggling in graded races before this. That may have been down to the trip I hope for the owners sake it was. He has the speed figures to run a place.
REINVINDICADO (KY) VINDICATION x STRONG HOPE x WAR CHANT
Vindication was a poor sire compared to his mares it though is always a shame when a horse does young. It was though very likely he was going to be poor given he never ran beyond two and the results should have been expected. It appeared many of his offspring were fragile like him. It is interesting a sire born in the same year with limited crops has as many graded winners as him. Dai Jin a German classic winner and based there is the horse given German rules and the record of the countries horses this was no surprise really. It would be no surprise to see the same happening with new sire Adlerflug and Zensational. This horse looks up against it in this race. He likes the trip which is a positive but his wins seem to come in nw* allowance races. This is a big difference in class to graded races. It is hard to see him winning in a good field.
GHOSTLY SLEW (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x SECRETARIAT x SEATTLE SLEW
His sire got a major sim downgrade and has had another $20k fee reduction since then to show how hard it is to sell him. I was really surprised to read yesterday another top class US racehorse had had his fee reduced by the same amount. This was a fee reduction of 1/3 on Curlin’s advertised fee for 2010. The press release that was attached did not make good reading “We are happy with his foals” and the reduction “will help attract high quality mares” in other words his foals stink like hell and pre booked quality mares have informed Lanes End they are going elsewhere. It would seem reasonable therefore given this news that Curlin should get a third reduction in his ability. Lanes End is an excellent stud and they would not be taking these measures unless there was not a serious problem. This horse looks like he will struggle here. His run at 9.5f suggests the trip is too far for him as does winning at 7.5f. He looks the big outsider in the race. He has got good wins in him at the 7-7.5f trip.
MAN OF STEEL (KY) EMPIRE MAKER x NUREYEV x BOLD RULER
This horse’s sire is another that has a poor real life record compared to the sim. Again he was another unsound horse so it is of no real surprise. His dam sire Nureyev had 45 graded winners over the last decade and is top class. This is a decent horse. He loves this trip and bangs out the big speed figures each start. The negative is his age, will the change in year lead to a down turn in form. All sim players know this can happen just like that to many good horses. On his form and ability he has to be in with a good chance of winning this race.
PERFECT PETROLEUM (KY) POSSE x FRANKLY PERFECT x WILD AGAIN
Posse did very well in his first year at stud. He has not built on that though. He was sent to New York this year for players from Europe this is like going from Ireland to Sweden bargain basement department time. This horse has out run his pedigree and is a decent allowance horse. This is his problem there are two very good graded animals I in here and one exciting prospect. It is therefore very hard for him to be given a chance of making his mark in this race.
As for my selections:-
1 Rode Me Hard high class horse should run well 2 Don’t Drop A Deuce exciting prospect can go far 3 Man Of Steel high class horse though getting a bit old
