One of the first major races of the season for 3yo fillies, the G1 California Oaks, will be held this Saturday, and the race has drawn a solid field of 10 young gals for a battle at 8.5 furlongs on the California oval. Half of the fillies are currently ranked in the Top 20, and many of the others are knocking on the door hoping to enter this pantheon by winning this race. Let's have a look at this excellent field:
STORM DOOR goes from the rail slot at 7/2, representing laserbarn. This filly's career started in unspectacular fashion, with but one win in her first five starts. Her solid trainer saw something in her that many of us didn't, however, and went ahead and started a graded-stakes campaign last August. A pair of solid 2nd's in graded sprints encouraged her handler to try two turns, and the filly responded with an impressive G3 win. Just three weeks later, the “Storm” was in the gate for another G3 race, but failed to fire, finishing 5th. “Yeah, I might have sent her out too quick”, laserbarn said. He waited six weeks before running the Fusaichi Pegasus filly again, and she responded with a superb performance, a dominant win with a terrific 104 speed rating in the G3 Silverbulletday stakes, her last outing. A repeat of this showing will be hard to beat.
GOT THE GOODS is next at 5/1, representing lenny18. This filly's career started in the usual Lenny fashion, with a number of bid races. The daughter of Ghostzapper performed well, winning 3 of those 4 races. This was followed by a restricted-stakes win, and then Lenny decided “It's time” and sent his filly out against a top field in the G1 Movieland Starlet at this track, and she responded with a wire-to-wire win. Unfortunately, Lenny reported she came back “a little sore”, and she needed a short rest. It was 8 weeks before the filly was spotted again, in the Equinics' Ohio Luck race at Vermont. She ran tough, but that extra burst just wasn't there, and she finished midpack. Lenny says “She's ready to rumble now”, saying the 3-week turnaround doesn't concern him.
GRAND MOM breaks from the 3-hole at 9/1 for graywolf8. This daughter of Suave has shown speed, but has been unable to stick around against graded-stakes company thus far. A winless-in-2010 jockey doesn't raise confidence. The CPU odds seem low; maybe it sees something that I can't, but I'll still look elsewhere.
HALOGUN goes from the 4th slot for seedly2. He goes off at 29/1, and looks every part a longshot, having never raced beyond 6.5 furlongs, and showing a tendency to fade late. He's also never been in a graded-stakes races. The New Mexico-bred has a tall order here, but at least should make sure the pace is honest today.
BROKENTREND is next, going off at 21/1 for japrufrock. This Brother Derek filly has done pretty well around 2 turns, but her class level may have been exposed in her last, her only graded-stakes effort thus far. Hard to expect a high finish in this spot.
EPSILON CAT is the 6-horse, a slight favorite at 3/1 for wortud (read that backwards). After starting her career with 3 sprints (she won once), she's run in 8 consecutive 2-turners, and never failed to hit the board, winning 5. The Eddington filly seems to keep improving, and hit that magic 100 speed figure in her last. Her tactical speed could be useful here, also. Dangerous, to be sure.
JUST ANOTHER DIA comes from the 7-slot at 16/1 for delaware. This daughter of Seeking The Dia started her career in September, and has only four starts to her name. The big question; was her bombout in the G1 Thxmsslew Stakes indicative of her class, or was it “just one of those things”? She's only had one try around two turns, and she won that with her best speed figure thus far in her short career.
HARD INDIAN goes off at 9/2 from the 8-hole for taylormade. The top earner in today's field, she's been knocking heads with the best in her division for most of her career, only finishing worse than 2nd once. That was her last, a 4th in an Equinics race. This Hard Spun filly is in her 3rd start after a 2 month layoff, and only a little improvement could get her in the winners' circle today.
HAWAIIAN GOLD goes off at 7/1 from the 9-hole for jeffsbarn. This could be the “wise guy choice” here, having won a G1 race at this track in her last with a nifty 97 speed rating after a 2-month layoff. Was there a strategy change for that race, or did she just start a little slow due to the layoff? In any case, her finish was strong.
QUIK N SHILOH gets the outside post, and goes off at 8/1 for quikvett1. This Midnight Lute filly is the only Equinics champ in here, but it was at 6f. His previous start was a nice win around 2 turns, but the restricted field doesn't appear to have been overly strong. Still, 3 in a row is 3 in a row...
Yoss' Benelux handicapper program likes:
1 – 6 – 8 – 10
I'm going to go with:
6 – EPSILON CAT
1 – STORM DOOR
9 – HAWAIIAN GOLD
8 - HARD INDIAN
Good luck at the races!