Depending on how you count, this Saturday brings the twelfth running of the Grade I Original Margarita Invitational to the California track.  Unless you count this as the second running.  Or the fourth.

The Original Margarita ran as a Grade I race California back in the early days of the Sim - 1999 and 2000.  Then it was downgraded to Grade II status and sponsorship moved to Dubai until last year, when it regained its Grade I status and its California home.  It's been won in the past by such luminaries as Squall in a Storm and LPGA Tour. 

Last year's winner, Mind Eraser, has had a tough time of it since her win.  She's not finished in the money since and is currently taking a bit of freshening as trainer fastvett tries to get her straightened out again. 

Whoever wins this year is unlikely to fade into obscurity.  Other than the Equinics, Grade I opportunities have been rare thus far in 2010 for the older distaff division, and it's no surprise that such a stellar cast have all pointed to this event.  Four of the top five divisional runners will meet up here.  In fact, nine of the top 50 fillies and mares are here.  Not surprisingly, many of them are familiar with each other.  Let the rematches begin.

PP 1 CROSSING DYNA(IRE) (DUBAWI (IRE) x CAPE CROSS (IRE) x DYNAFORMER) bred and trained by jmahls (JMAHLS, 15%) Odds: 6-1, Style: S

Since turning four, she's been limiting her competition to other four-year-olds.  She's definitely meets a tougher field here than she beat last time in the Grade II Canada.  That's not to say she can't handle the company.  In early October she rallied for a second in a very contentious Grade I, finishing ahead of today's favorite.  She's very fit and has never been out of the money in dirt races against her own sex in her life, despite sticking with graded stakes.  She would be no surprise.

PP 2 KORNSNAKE(IRE) (SADLER'S WELLS x MILL REEF x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by korn (Qwikvett Stables, 14%) Odds: 9-1, Style: E

Yes, fastvett, the barn of last year's winner, is in the same family as korn. Kornsnake's odds are inflated because of her terrible outing last time.  But her performance in that turf sprint shouldn't have much to do with how she can get nine furlongs on the dirt.  Two races back she threw an eye-popping 113 speed figure.   If she can run that here, she would reward her backers handsomely.  There are a couple reasons to question whether she can do that.  First of all it came in an overnight that included a computer horse.  More importantly, all seven of her lifetime wins have been wire to wire.  If she can't get an uncontested lead, she refuses to win.  While most of the mares in here prefer to come from off the pace, there are a couple with some serious speed on the outside, likely dooming her chances.

PP 3 AWESOME ANNIE(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x DYNAFORMER) bred and trained by andycapper (Andycapper Stables, 11%) Odds: 15-1, Style: S

I don't recall a horse ever getting her first graded win in her 41st start, and Annie has found a very tough field to try to accomplish the feat.  That's not to say she can't earn a check - she has three finishes in the money in graded stakes just in the past year.  The bigger worry for her than class is speed.  She's been throwing out figures in the mid-90s and the winner here will likely be well into triple digits.  It may be time to think about giving her her first true vacation in her ambitious career - she has over 35 races in the past two years - or maybe even time to send her to the breeding shed.

PP 4 PARADISE STARLET(KY) (VINDICATION x TALE OF THE CAT x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by sparadise (Tulloch Stables, 11%) Odds: 9-1, Style: S

Never got going in the DelPenn Grade I last time, but before that she was running very solid numbers against tough competition.  In late November she won a Grade II at this distance and at longer odds.  It's safe to say she won't run as poorly as she did last time, and her odds are reflecting that effort.  She's not the most consistent runner, her last race was bad,  and others appear more likely, so I'll pass, but she's the kind of longshot that can surprise.

PP 5 STENO BOOK(KY) (STORM CAT x SEATTLE SLEW x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred and trained by mav176 (Deadinthelane Stables, 15%) Odds: 5-1, Style S

This is the eleventh straight graded race for Steno, and in her past ten races she has three wins three other in-the-money finishes.  She started that streak with a race where she finished ahead of Skidmore Indy (and behind Kornsnake), but since then she's faced Skidmore four more times, including her last three races, and has finished behind that one all four times.  She's a fast and consistent mare and she deserves to be one of the favorites, but it can't be encouraging to her barn to see the number 9 horse enter the gate.

PP 6 SHE MUST BE GIANT(KY) (GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by jockster2 (Jpritchett Stables, 10%) Odds: 6-1, Style: S

Only making her 12th start, this filly is more lightly raced than most of the rest of the field, and the sky's the limit.  She's already fast, already a graded winner, and I think she just missed the cut in her American Idol audition.  Just as Steno Book seems haunted by Skidmore Indy, Giant might be sad to see Crossing Dyna in here.  The rail filly has beaten her in both of her last two graded tries.  Giant has the better post this time and has a good shot to turn the tables on that one, only to run into those top-rated mares just to her outside.  The Jpritchett Stables are an everman operation and that makes this one the sentimental choice.

PP 7 THE WORD(KY) (A.P. INDY x SADLER'S WELLS x KINGMAMBO) bred and trained by persuader (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 25%) Odds: 10-1, Style: P

Last fall, The Word was the hottest thing going among three-year-old fillies and earned an Eclipse nomination.  Her most impressive performance was coming within a half-length of upsetting the field in the Breeders' Bowl.  Her next couple of races were disappointing, but that's not surprising.  Efforts such as hers can take some time to recover.  If she has recovered to where she was, she has as good a chance as any in here.  She prepped for this with an allowance race that she won for fun.  Top-grade trainer thinks she is.

PP 8 SLAVE TO AMBITION(KY) (DISTORTED HUMOR x APTITUDE x STORM CAT) bred and trained by gwyneth (Chilcoat Stables, 18%) Odds: 9-2, Style: P

What more do you want? She's the number one ranked mare in the division, coming in off a Grade I (Equinics) win with the best last-out speed figure in the field.  She's the Breeders' Bowl winner.  She has multiple recent wins over four other runners in the field and no losses to any of them.  She has won half of her lifetime races and looks to go over $3 million in earnings in this race.  Even the pace scenario seems to favor her.  I need to find something bad to say about her.  Okay, she got trounced by the boys a couple races ago, but I don't see any boys in this race.

PP 9 SKIDMORE INDY(KY) (A.P. INDY x SADLER'S WELLS x KINGMAMBO) bred and trained by jrogue (Jrogue Stables, 17%) Odds: 4-1, Style: E

Most of the runners in this race tend to come from well off the pace.  This morning line favorite is one of only three that like to go early.  Skidmore is the speed of the speed, so there's a chance she's get her ideal trip.   That happened last time as she won the Grade I Santa Marina.  This field is just much better than that one was, and she's never been able to pick up back-to-back wins.  In addition, four of the runners here have finished ahead of her recently (She's recently beaten three others in here.)  We're always looking for reasons to discount the favorite's chances, and I think we have enough reasons to look elsewhere for the winner.  Do you wonder if it's awkward when close cousins Skidmore and The Word bump into each other at family reunions?  

PP 10 COMBAT ROGUE(KY) (DYNAFORMER x CAT THIEF x MISWAKI) bred and trained by purpledaze (Lucky Stables, 12%) Odds: 11-1, Style: E

Combat tried challenging Skidmore Indy early last time, but that one brushed her off like so much cat hair, and Combat faded badly.  An unlucky draw puts her right next to Skidmore again.  All seven of this mare's wins have been wire-to-wire.  She's followed bad fades with wins before, so there is always hope, but none of those wins have come against the like of what she faces here.

Summary.  It's normally fairly easy to divide a field into the half that has a chance and the half that doesn't. (Okay, yes, I routinely get the two halves mixed up.) This time, no matter what three you pick, there are a half-dozen fillies and mares you look at and ask, "How could I have left her off?" 

It's conceivable that Skidmore Indy wires the field.  I don't think she will.  Mostly because she's the favorite.  I'll recommend (jinx?) these: Slave to Ambition / The Word / She Must Be Giant.