Big Upset in the All Saints Lock Race? by pazjazz
on
Friday, March 05, 2010 at
5:46:29 PM
Great field in this years first Lock Race!
All Saints Derby – Derby Lock Prep Grade I A mile and one sixteenth on the Fast Dirt Course Purse - $600,000: 1st: $360,000, 2nd: $150,000, 3rd: $48,000, 4th: $30,000, 5th: $12,000 All horses, 3 years old Stakes record – 2008 – Trading Jack(KY), 1:41-2/5, SPF 109.544Here we are in Louisiana for the very first step on the Road to the Derby. This is our first Lock Race of the year where the winner gets an automatic bid in the Bluegrass Derby the first Saturday in May. There are eleven of the top fifty 3 year olds and four of the top ten entered so we should have quite a race. There will be several horses here that have a good shot to win and lock a place in the big race for a horse that might not otherwise qualify for the Derby to get in. Last year this race was run in the muck and the mire but the weather looks great this weekend with sunshine, warmer weather and a very fast track ready to go. I got down here a few days early to head to New Orleans for some great food and a few parties so I am fat a sassy and ready to take on this fine field. A lot of hopes and dreams of trainers will be dashed or reinforced by this race and it should be a lot of fun so let’s take a look:
1 - TOKKACHU(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Astin’s Place
10/1
NewAstin18
23.2%
Bo.Ryan
49 - 6 - 3 - 3 - 12%
105
$ 169,148
43
( TOCCET x WOODMAN x PRIVATE ACCOUNT out of COUNT PINKIE) TOCCHET was a pretty hot sire a while back and he had a real winner with this nice looking son. This colt has won four of eight and three of four since trainer NewAstin18 stretched him out to a mile. He likes to hang near the back of the pack and brings a furious late charge to the stretch. That is exactly what he did last time out with a sizzling 105 SPF and win in the RISEN STAR G3 at this same track with the same jockey. He once again has Ryan in the leather and he has been solid all year. This could be a nice a trifecta pick with generous odds that could be your winner.
2 - VALENTINE ROSES(JPN)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Ozsteve Stables
21/1
Roosters04
13.8%
M.Bailey
18 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 0%
96
$ 71,385
84
( ROSES IN MAY x HERBAGER x TROY(GB)) This nice looking brown colt has only run four times but has shown nice improvement for trainer Roosters04 in all four races. He likes to be on or near the lead and was just caught in the last few steps last time out in the SILVER FENCE G3. He looks ready to break the triple digit SPF barrier and it should be in this race. One problem here is the jockey holding the reins is Bailey and he’s still looking for his first win of 2k10 and he has only hit the board one time all year. A nice race here will move this colt up to within shouting distance of the top twenty and increase the possibilities of qualifying for the big race.
3 - SISSON'S WHISKERS(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
BinzaMan Stables
9/1
BinzaSTC
13.6%
T.Campy
103 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 9%
99
$ 467,006
16
(FLOWER ALLEY x STORM CAT x RAISE A NATIVE out of ADAMS CAT) This FLOWER ALLEY colt won his second Graded race last time out in the GOOD COW G3 after a somewhat disappointing run in the MOVIELAND FUTURITY G1 the race before. He still hasn’t hit a 100 SPF and will definitely need that here. He’s a mid pack runner that won’t mind this inside post. He has Campy in the saddle and he has proven capable all year. He’s only missed the board one time in his nine races but it was two back in the G1 and the field will be very tough here.
4 - RELAX STORM(CZE)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Wolf’s Den
10/1
GreyWolf19
12.6%
O.Euler
27 - 1 - 1 - 3 - 4%
97
$ 179,450
27
( RELAXED GESTURE (IRE) x STORM CAT x KEY TO THE KINGDOM out of OUR FAMILIES) Our most experienced colt by far with thirteen races, this Czech bred colt out of sire RELAXED GESTURE has three wins including the CRYOGENICS G3 but he hasn’t had a win since that race last September. He’s shown slow improvement for the Graywolf bunch but he hasn’t really shown that consistent dominance that you would like to see from a colt headed to the Derby. Compounding the problem is jockey Euler who has only one win in twenty seven mounts this year. They will need a big effort from colt and jockey to contend here and to move into the top 20.
5 - CURLING(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
SnowClan Stables
10/1
SnowClan
11.4%
F.Oxon
156 - 36 - 30 - 29 - 23%
100
$ 1,647,432
6
( CURLIN x STORM CAT x HOUSEBUSTER out of SMELLING INTO CAT) Last year’s eclipse award winner for two year old colt, this great CURLIN offspring earned 3 graded wins including the Breeders Bowl Juvenile on his way to a championship season. He was a bit of a late entry as trainer and owner Snowclan must have been wondering about his disappointing run in the Equinics three weeks back when he finished 12th after a late fade. He loves the front end and will probably grab the lead as he is the closest to the rail with front end aspirations. He has one of the best jockeys in the business up in F.Oxon and he may be able to get this award winning colt back on track in this one and send him on to greater glories.
6 - BUSHWHACKED TED(KSA)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Pup Stables
5/1
Pup
7.8%
P.Sullivan
91 - 6 - 13 - 10 - 7%
105
$ 566,995
4
( OFFICIAL FLAME x GONE WEST x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) out of BLUSHING RED T) Our Morning Line favorite, with good reason after his last three races. Since last November he has won three in a row including two Graded wins and three straight triple digit SPFs. His last outing was a sizzling 105 SPF in the ALL RESTED UP Stakes. Trainer and owner Pup will probably send him out on CURLING’s shoulder with hopes of finishing him down the stretch. He has Sullivan in the irons who is having one of his worst years in his eleven as jockey but has the experience to bring this colt home. If he can continue his recent dominance, he will be really tough to beat in this one and may be our first Derby entrant.
7 - ELUSIVE CROWN(AUS)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Zanthulus Stables
12/1
Zanthulus
8.6%
U.Cunningham
16 - 0 - 4 - 1 - 0%
100
$ 117,560
50
( ELUSIVE QUALITY x CHIEF'S CROWN x RELAUNCH) I recently watched the colt in the LEGOLAND G3 where he finished second after appearing to run out of real estate. If the race had been a bit further, I think he would have won. He has the extra length here and could contend for trainer and owner Zanthulus. He’s hit the board in five of his six races and continues to improve with a nice jump to a 100 SPF last time out in the LEGOLAND. He has lightly used jockey Cunningham guiding and he is still looking for his first win of 2010 which could be a problem in this one. It sure helps having that great jockey when you have this kind of competion.
8 - PRONOUNCE THIS(IRE)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Glenrohan Stables
7/1
Juey72
11.4%
S.Hardinger
24 - 4 - 1 - 3 - 17%
102
$ 783,781
19
( DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x MISWAKI x UNACCOUNTED FOR out of PRONUNCIATION) He finished second to TOKKACHU last time out in the G3 RISEN STAR and has had teo really solid races in a row on dry tracks sandwiched around and off track throw away. He likes this distance and trainer Juey72 has brought him along nicely. They’ve paid attention to all the details including bringing jockey Hardinger to help this young colt. Hardinger has been hot all year. With eight finished on the board in nine races and three quarters of a mil in earnings, this colt may have to be pronounced WINNER after this one and should solidify his top twenty ranking.
9 - MARK OF DESTINY(CA)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
HornedFrog Stables
8/1
TheLeague
11.8%
B.Ham
3 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0%
100
$ 300,770
24
( BENCHMARK x MORE THAN READY x HIS MAJESTY out of BUSTED CONNECTION) After a sterling two year old campaign in which he won four of five including two Graded races, this colt has taken a bit of a step back in 2010 for trainer TheLeague and the HornedFrog Stables. After a 100 SPF win in his last run at the end of 2009, he hasn’t reached that figure in his two races so far this year and had finished seventh and third. Surprisingly, they chose jockey Ham to try and turn this horse around as he has only had three mounts all year and is yet to hit the board with any of them. This colt is just outside of that magic top twenty and needs a big run here.
10 - JUST ANOTHER STORY(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Fear The Shark Stables
14/1
PrinceAB
23.2%
C.Morris
35 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 11%
98
$ 144,860
62
( BERNARDINI x WILD AGAIN x DEPUTY MINISTER out of MOTHER STORY) Always competitive, this colt just hasn’t had that really breakout race yet. Trainer PrinceAB and the Fear the Shark Stables thought that they might have it last time out in the GOOD COW G3 but he ran out of room trying to run down SISSON’S WHISKERS with a nice second place finish. The extra sixteenth may benefit him here as will the seven years of experience of jockey Morris who is having one of his best years. This would be a great week for that big break out win.
11 - DEPUTY HERO(IRE)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Arthur’s Stables
17/1
Arthurs
9.3%
A.Baldinger
15 - 0 - 0 - 4 - 0%
94
$ 658,510
42
( STRATEGIC PRINCE x DEPUTY MINISTER x SEA HERO out of DEPUTY ART) This colt’s claim to fame was a huge win during the DelPenn Days last year. He won the Juvy Sprint with a nice win that showed great heart. Trainer and owner Arthur is stretching him out over a mile for this first time in this one and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. I would have preferred to see him with a better jockey in moving to the longer race against this competition as Baldinger has been pretty terrible this year with only a handful of show finishes and no wins to show for his mounts. It could go either way with this one and I look forward to seeing how it turns out.
12 - JUST VENGEANCE(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Dead Meadow Farms
9/1
JMA
10.2%
A.Jolly
134 - 32 - 26 - 19 - 24%
98
$ 376,604
7
( DEHERE x MR. GREELEY x VAGUELY NOBLE out of KID EGO) With his first run of 2k10, this colt has had a long layoff since the DelPenn days before last Christmas. You wonder if he may have benefited from a tune up before this one but it is hard to argue with the handling so far of the Dead Meadow Farms with this colt. He had a great two year old campaign with two Graded wins and competitive finishes in both the Breeders Bowl and at DelPenn. He has one of the best jockey’s out her in Jolly holding the reins and this colt could surprise a few folks if he is tight and ready to run his first three year old race.
13 - LEFT OF REASON(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
The Empire Stables
Simsters7
22.2%
H.Fernandez
19 - 0 - 2 - 2 - 0%
101
$ 75,660
95
( CURLIN x GREEN DESERT x RIVERMAN out of LAST RIGHTS) I’ve written up a lot of Lock races over the past few years and one thing I’ve learned is to never discount one of Lenny’s horses that come in with just a few runs and low ranking. He really knows how to bring them along slowly and won 25% of all of the lock races last year. This nice looking CURLIN colt comes in undefeated with a splashy 101 SPF last time out in the overnight TABITHA Stakes on Valentine’s weekend his first race over eight panels. I don’t see anything standing in the way of this colt following his predecessors in winning a Lock race except for jockey Fernandez who has been pretty lackluster in his attempts at winning his first of the year. I may have to jump on this team for a long shot win.
14 - NIGHT OF DEMONS(KY)
ODDS
STABLE
WIN%
JOCKEY
WIN%
TOP SPEED
EARNINGS
RANK
Qwikvett Stables
10/1
Pincay
15.6%
D.Hogin
127 - 24 - 20 - 19 - 19%
96
$ 262,570
9
( BIG BROWN x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) This BIG BROWN colt ran just three weeks ago in the Equinics with a fifth place finish. He has been competitive but hasn’t won since last summer in the TRIXY DELIGHTS G3. Trainer Pincay and the Quikvett Stables would like to see this colt get it turned around before that first Saturday in May. Right now he looks pretty solid for a spot with a top ten ranking but will need to contend in a couple of these Gradeds leading up to the big race to hold that ranking. They have one of the tracks best jockeys in Hogin and he may be just thing to right the ship.
We have a really competitive field here in New Orleans this year for this huge and important race. These are always tough to handicap, but the BTB pays me the big bucks to make my picks so here I go. I like SISSON'S WHISKERS to probably be in the mix but I just couldn’t pull the trigger to put him into my top four. I have TOKKACHU to finish fourth and I like the fact that he is returning to this track with the same jockey so it really makes for an intriguing choice. He even beat PRONOUNCE THIS in his last race but I’m switching them around in this one. I’ve got PRONOUNCE in my third spot on my card. It seems that everyone is picking BUSHWHACKED TED to win this race and he’s really tough to pick against. It is so tough to continue the run he’s had and I have him second just on talent alone. I’m just playing a hunch on LEFT OF REASON , there is just something about that colt that is screaming at me to pick him. I am going out on a bit of a limb with him as the winner as I have seen too many of Lenny’s horses come in to the Lock race in the same exact way and go out a winner. I think he will take our first spot in the Derby with a long shot win.
All Saints Derby – Derby Lock Prep
