Cheltenham next week who cares about the flat by iant
on
Thursday, March 11, 2010 at
6:34:46 AM
Night At The Exbury
Race : Night At The Exbury - Grade III - $150,000 Track : Deauville (FR)
I covered this race last year so rather then cutting and pasting my introduction I have taken a different look at things. This is helped by the introduction of regional racing as well. France along with England Ireland and the USA has the best racing in the world in fact due to the level of competition from foreign runners it would be fair to say French racing is the most international of all racing. Most of the top owner breeders in the world have strings of horses in France due to the good prize money and lucrative owners and breeders premiums on offer. France also has some of the world’s nicest racecourses and the crowds are not massive and therefore security is not such a major issue. Sheikh Hamden for example if you see him at the races in England has at least two armed security guards with him (in England people carrying wearing guns is very rare indeed).
There are plenty of decent sires in France there stud fees tend to be low due to premiums which are also paid to stallion owners for winning placed horses. The tax rules in France are very strange in general and it is not always a positive to appear to have high levels of income if you know what I mean. Therefore little can be drawn when comparing stud fees in France against other countries.
The last fact to say about French racing is two year old racing is not a major issue and most trainers tend to keep there powder dry with their best horses to race them at three and four. In this respect it is far more like the sim than all other major flat racing nations the sires therefore should suit the sim and do better than real life.
I have listed below some of the better sires in France all of then should be capable of siring graded stakes winners in the sim if not there rating is obviously wrong.
American Post - the son of Bering has done ok with his first two crops to race. He has seven black type horses. As mentioned above French horses improve with age and he is likely to get more horses as 4yo or older becoming black type animals then stallions from other major racing areas. He was an excellent racehorse being a grade 1 winning 2yo and classic winner at three. There is some evidence he is now better rated in the sim than when first retired he deserves to be just on his racecourse profile.
Bering – still available to use for 2yo’s in the sim. He is basically retired though like Kingmamabo and wills service one or three mares this year. It is worth noting as a dame sire over the last ten years he has had 61 black type horses compared to say Clyptoclearance who has had 51 which shows what sort of rating he should have in terms of ability as a dam sire.
Desert Style – He was moved from Ireland in 2008. His record at stud is good and he gets the odd very good horse in 2009 his son Paco Boy was in the world top ten horses. He is capable of siring very good horses but not in massive numbers. His stock are tough and take there racing well and in his best horses are three classic winners which is not shabby.
Elusive City – the son of Elusive Quality is new to France for 2010. He has the highest stud fee in France as well. His first crop in 2009 included a classic winner and another classic placed horse. He was leading European first crop sire in 2008 on prize money as well. His sales record for yearling in 2008 made him one of the best stallions in the world in terms of sales returns. He stamps his stock really well which is an added bonus and he himself is a looker. He should continue to do well at stud and the evidence in the sim is his last crop was far better in terms of ability than those previous.
Falco – the classic winning son of Pivotal was well supported in the sim last year. The results were poor. He is another good looking horse who has many top owners as shareholders and has been well supported at stud. He is likely to do far better than his sim results so far would suggest.
Green Tune – The classic winning son of Green Dancer has been a consistent sire in France over the years. His crops have been small due to several problems but he continues to get decent runners. 29 black type horses over the last decade show his ability and the fact he should be able to throw the odd decent horse in the sim.
Lando – This German bred horse is one of the most underrated sires in the sim. His record at stud stands up to analysis as well. He has been producing over the last 4 season over 5% stakes winners to runners. That is very good in the current climate. Most are really tough horses which hold there form. It is no surprise he was the most profitable sire in the world compared as a percentage against stud fee in 2009. He has an outcross pedigree which has Sharpen Up in there which is a benefit when breeding back to Danzig line stallions so is very useful as a sire for those purposes alone. He should have received a major boost and if not there is no excuse why not in the sim. In real terms he is within the best 75 stallions active at stud in the world at present.
Literato- The son of Kendor was retired to stud in 2009. his sim ability is poor on the evidence so far. His race record does not support that he was never out of the first two at two and three years capping it off with an open age grade 1 victory in the Champion Stakes. He has taken his sires place at the same stud farm. Kendor had a decent record at stud as a sire and dam sire. This horse should have been rated at about the same level as Big Brown which shows how massively over rated that horse is and how poorly rated he is. He should be capable of getting about 3% stakes winner to runners.
Mutathir – He has done very well at stud from some very poor mares. His offspring improve with age and tend to be very tough think Doctor Dino, Satwa Queen and Mauralakana. He is now getting better bred runners though and support from Shadwell of better quality mares. He is likely to get improved results and more horses like the ones listed should follow in the coming years.
Orpen – he is a classic producing sire that started out at Coolmore. In 2009 only Monjteu had more graded stakes winner in the world he had the same number as Danehill Dancer 14. Many of those were on his shuttle route to Argentina but his record is not all that bad elsewhere and he is a far better stallion than his sim rating appears to suggest.
Slickly – he was a really tough race horse He won graded races every year he raced from two to six how many horse can boast that kind of record? His off spring are now showing they are tough and durable like him and in most cases improving with age. He is attracting better mares as well. He should be rated and in the same class as American Post in terms of ability to get top class horses.
Le Havre – This horse is not yet in the game but will hopefully be added in the next few weeks. He was only out of the first two once in his life on heavy ground. He is a classic winner and second in another classic. He was one of the highest rated horse’s to retire to stud for 2010. he has a book of over 100 mares from top breeders his owner purchased over 30 mares of a very good quality to be covered by him. It would be no surprise to see him become the next Linamix who if he was till alive would be in the top 50 sires in the game given his stud record. His dam is a half sister to Polar Falcon who’s sons record at stud has in almost every case seen them far out perform the mares provided for them think Pivotal as the main headline. This horse may well do the same.
There are only six runners for this race so the horses have been well placed to get some graded status if not already gained. On prices the fields are closely matched but I think the reality will be somewhat different.
DEMONIC KITTY (KY) KITTEN'S JOY x DYNAFORMER x HABITAT
This horse’s sire did well as a race horse on the turf in the USA. As to be expected his offspring have done nothing so far outside of the USA and would appear to be of little value on the international circuit. He has several listed class horses in the USA but that is mainly down to the fact good horses do not run on the turf until they fail on the dirt. He is a stallion of less ability than American Post listed above. His long term future looks bleak. This is a decent sim horse who won a graded race over this trip last year. He has not really built on that so far. It maybe he wants to go further than 11f a distance he won over last time. He has the class to run a place in a small field.
SPIRITUAL THEATRE (KY) THEATRICAL (IRE) x HALO x MILL REEF
Theatrical was sired from Nureyev’s only crop in France. Out of the crop of 26 foals seven were stakes winners many at the graded level. That is outstanding by modern day standards. It is more interesting given Arthur Hancocks recent press release with regards to his Dad’s belief that too many coverings cause lack of quality in horses bred. There is a lot of logic on this when you consider it takes 2 days for sperm to properly redevelop to its optimum level. Theatrical is one of those sires who demonstrates even after his down grade why US based stallions are so overrated in the sim he had 12 graded stakes winners in the last decade in real life yet 23 in the sim in his last five crops. This horse has a very good record and has been well managed by his owner. He has been placed second in graded races on his last two starts. He likes the trip and posts good speed figures on a regular basis, he has to have a very goo chance of winning here.
DANCE ROUTINE (KY) FUSAICHI PEGASUS x NUREYEV x ALYDAR
This horse’s sire is down to $15k for 2010 that is 10% of the value he started out at. The fact he did not live up to expectations should have been no surprise to anyone in fact it would have been a surprise if he had done. The fact he failed to win against open all age grade 1 company at three was a massive negative. That is one of the main factors for success of future top class stallions most of the leading sires achieved this. Interesting seven out of his nice turf graded stakes winners have come in Australia. This horse was a graded winner as a 3yo but in truth has not really built on that. He looks like he want further than 10f but does not appear to stay extreme distances a try at 12f would appear a good idea. He has the class to run a place in this small field.
NIHONSHU (ENG) SAKHEE x RED RANSOM x MR. PROSPECTOR
Sakhee has been poor at stud and seems to be on the downgrade very much like Fusaichi Pagasus. A downgrade in the sim if it was not done would have been of no surprise this year, saying that Red Ransom could have fallen under the same banner given his record over recent seasons in the Northern Hemisphere which ahs been poor given the number of mares he was bred too. This horse does well in allowance races where he has a very good win ratio. When put in stakes races he has come up short those were ungraded 3yo only races so he has something to find on a couple of winners of graded races for 3yo’s last year. He has the ability to run a place if everything falls in place.
FRANKLIN TERRACE (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SAINT BALLADO
Montjeu led the world in 2009 in number of graded winners. His 2yo’s looked very good this was his first crop since his first crop to hit the racecourse and therefore out of the best set of mares he has covered. The results were very good and he had the worlds best 2yo in St Nicholas Abbey who looks an outstanding prospect for 2010 and he back up’s are not shabby either. This 5yo has been running at a good level since his 2yo days. He has held his form well and been slightly unlucky not to gain more stakes wins. He is another horse who likes the trip and has the class to be placed in a graded race of this type.
FALLSCHIRMJAGER (KY) ROCK HARD TEN x DIXIELAND BAND x SADLER'S WELLS
Rock Hard ten did ok at stud in his first year. The horses seem to have more speed than stamina and not a lot of scope to be honest. He does not really look a long term top prospect especially as both his graded winners so far are on turf. This horse has been running well over longer trips of late. It would appear he is better at the longer trips than today where others it appears there best distance. Overall he does look the weakest candidate in the race which means he will win.
As for my selections:-
1 Spiritual Theatre - has the best current form and deserves a graded win 2 Dance Routine – one of 4 others with good place prospects 3 Nihonshu – same as the above
