New Zealand Oaks G2 by roxyken
on
Thursday, March 11, 2010 at
10:22:59 PM
Possible Upset in Making?
The New Zealand Oaks, which is restricted to 3-year old fillies & mares will be run on the turf course. This G2 race will be going a distance of a mile and a half on a firm course with a field of 9 going to the gate.
1. Chief Pepin 7-2
Chief Pepin is nearly flawless in her career, hitting the board 9 of 10 starts. She comes off an impressive second in the Canadian’s Northern Dancer Romp (G1, 9f) where she flew through the stretch, making up 9 lengths and advancing from 10th. She stretches out in distance, but then again, so does every other entrant in this race. She has a tremendous late kick and the extra distance looks like a plus for her.
2. Berantevilla 3-1
Berantevilla has never finished worse than forth in her 11 career starts. Her last two races posted scores just below 100. This gal likes to run on the lead or very close to it. The only set back I see is in 6 route starts, her record is 1-1-2 and is indicative of her tiring late in the race. She’ll need to keep something in her reserve tank to hold off the late closers.
3. Heart Noir 9-1
In the Bonnie Sis Stakes (G3, 9f), Heart Noir ran a rather flat 5th throughout the race. But that isin’t overall bad, she did see a boost in her speed to 96, a bounce from her prior race where she ran 10.5f in a win in a non-graded stakes race with a speed of 85. Her past history shows lower speeds than most in this field, but the recent speed increase is promising.
4. Faldo 11-1
Faldo also joined a few others in this race in the Canadian’s Northern Dancer Romp (G1, 9f). In this huge 19 horse field, Faldo ran near the rear of the field, some 14 or so strides back at the half. She made her way through the field and finished 3rd with a deficit of just over 3 lengths and a speed of 92. Faldo has a great late kick and the added distance looks to be of a benefit. Her speed numbers have struggled to get over 90. Should be interesting to see if the longer race will improve that.
5. Buda at the Dance 6-1
Buda has won 3 of her last 4 races, including the G3 Tristan Fillies (10f) where she rolled off to a 3-stride win on a yielding track and a speed of 93. Buda at the Dance will be somewhere in the middle of the field and she has shown improvement with each outing. Since July, her speed numbers have only gone upward. She has won 6 of 9 starts and should put in a good showing.
6. Reed Road 6-1
Not too sure what happened to Reed Road in her last start in the Canadian’s Northern Dancer Romp (G1, 9f). It was the first time she finished off the board in 6 lifetime starts. She had good early position running forth but showed little in the stretch, finishing 7th and a speed of 89. Her prior start was a 2nd in the G3 Royalty Stakes (10f) with a speed of 99 and before that was a win in the G1 The Saint Cloud (10f) that had a speed of 92. I’m looking for a better outing from her this time, but as a front runner, can she hold the lead for the extra 2-furlongs? This one just might.
7. Nystagmus 7-1
Nystagmus has some late speed and she showed it in her last start, winning an allowance race (9.5f) in a speed of 91. That speed happens to match her career best and she looks like she may have some tough times ahead of her. Nystagmus has made two graded starts in the Canadian’s Northern Dancer Romp (G1, 9f) and the Silver Spoon (G2, 8f) finishing well back in both races. She appears to be overmatched in this outing.
8. Encosta Colac 13-1
It’s hard to see Encosta Colac winning this record as she has only one win in 11 starts. Her last race was in the non-graded Broadside Stakes, going a mile in a career best speed of 88. Hard to see her around with the speed number disadvantage, but looking at her recent races, she makes a late move in the final quarter of the race. She is going a half-mile further than she has before. The added distance may just make the difference.
9. Cold Empire 5-1
Cold Empire wowed the crowd in her last start in the G3 Royalty Stakes (10f) where she roared to a 3 length victory in a speed of 102, after being 15 behind at the half. The prior race was a nice second in the G2 Silver Spoon Juvenile (8f), making up 10 lengths late in the race to miss by a stride. She made a nice improvement moving up to 10f from 8f and this race makes her look dangerous.
